Caleb Franzen @CalebFranzen Twitter profile

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Caleb Franzen

4 months

I'll reiterate my macro expectations: • Disinflation • Resilient & dynamic labor market • Resilient & dynamic consumer • Resilient & dynamic economy • Modest softening in all three categories Remember, softness is NOT weakness.

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

2 years

#Bitcoin daily candles since October 2020. The red & white indicators use linear regression analysis to measure the slope of the regression on different time frames (slow vs. fast). Crossovers are bullish/bearish depending on the direction. Bullish crossover happening now...

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

10 months

29.1% of Bitcoin hasn't moved in 5+ years. That's absolutely insane. Think about it... 5 years ago today, Bitcoin was trading at $6,500. It fell to $3,100 five months later, falling -51%. Then it ripped back to $13,800 from Dec.’18 to June’19. BTC fell another -50% in the 2nd…

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

2 years

@TikTokInvestors Translation: “When the banks said we were over-leveraged and they wouldn’t lend to us, we turned to alternative markets to borrow more money at higher interest rates. We don’t know when the music will stop, but we hope it won’t be soon!”

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

1 year

Today is the final day of November and #Bitcoin is going to produce the 12th consecutive red monthly Heikin Ashi candle. After 5+ months of red candles, a green monthly candle has marked the end of each bear market. Each red streak has been longer than the last. #Patience

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

4 months

I can confirm that several of the #BTC ETFs are currently being populated on Fidelity's brokerage platform. These are the 4 that I was able to pull: • Ark 21Shares $ARKB • Vaneck $HODL • Invesco Galaxy $BTCO • WisdomTree $BTCW Still no formal approval, but likely tonight.

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

2 months

Fidelity is putting #Bitcoin (via ETF) in model portfolios. BlackRock is putting #BTC in their Strategic Income fund. BlackRock is putting #BTC in their Global Allocation fund. All announced within the past week. You still can't comprehend how much capital flow is coming.

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

3 years

@danheld Economists have predicted 9 out of the last 3 recessions.

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

2 years

The Nasdaq-100 $NDX may potentially flash a bullish signal for only the 5th time since 1987! When the 18-month Williams%R Oscillator crosses back above the "oversold" threshold (lower-bound), strong returns have ensued. The average 1-year return is +31.8%!

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

1 year

The S&P 500 is flashing one of my favorite bullish signals, for the first time since November 2020. In fact, this signal has only occurred 4x in the past 10 years! Here's the signal and why it's important:

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

2 months

#Bitcoin just completed the highest monthly close since Oct.'21, but it gets even better & more bullish... The 36-month Williams%R Oscillator just closed above the overbought level for the 4th time in history. #BTC returns after prior signals: • Feb.'13 = +3,900% in 9 months •…

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

9 months

Relative to M2 money supply, the S&P 500 is trading at the exact same level as July 2007. This range also coincided with market peaks in: • Feb.'20 • Q4'21 While the S&P 500 itself has gained +181% in the past 16 years, $SPX/M2 has made no progress. Logical resistance zone?

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

6 months

Monetary policy & #Bitcoin analysis w/ price targets: As disinflation continues and the Federal Reserve maintains the current policy rate of 5.33%, it's a mathematical certainty that the real fed funds rate will become even more positive. This will create a feedback loop for…

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

1 month

So wait a minute... $MSTR is down today (while BTC is up) because a firm announced that they are shorting the stock? Nothing has changed about the uptrend in BTC? As a matter of fact, the same firm announced that they're buying BTC? Got it. I'm buying more $MSTR today.

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

4 months

Vanguard is going to be so sad to see your $18,000 401k account go away.

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

2 months

Today is my 1-year anniversary of leaving the U.S., moving to Europe, and doing the whole solo Digital Nomad lifestyle. It's surreal to get to this point, because this is the lifestyle that I envisioned for myself when I quit my corporate banking job in 2020 to trade & share…

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

2 years

Another blessed week in my hometown of Santa Barbara, but I’m headed back to the East Coast! The highlight was watching @nachofigueras & Prince Harry play polo on Sunday, the highest scoring match I’ve ever seen (15-13). Can’t wait to grind grind grind!

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

2 years

Nasdaq-100 $NDX bullish signal: The 52-week Williams%R oscillator became "oversold" 2 weeks ago, the 7th time since 2003. This indicates that price has become "oversold" relative to it's 1-year range. It signaled a multi-year low for the Nasdaq in 4/6 cases. It gets better...

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

17 days

4 years ago, I was paying $2,500/month to rent in San Francisco while being uninspired with my career trajectory in banking. I could whine about it, or make a change & reassess what I wanted out of life. I did the latter. I'm on track to make 3x vs. my corporate income this…

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

4 months

#BITCOIN CRASHES BACK TO PRICES NOT SEEN SINCE JANUARY 1, 2024!

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

2 months

New analysis tells me that #Bitcoin goes to $76k ASAP.

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

2 years

The correlation between #Bitcoin (candles) & 10-year Treasuries (teal) since mid-2020 is uncanny. Perfect overlap and these quantitative relationships aren't being discussed. For the bull run to continue, will rates need to rise further?

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

3 months

Virtually zero euphoria or exuberance at $52k. Still seeing plenty of doubt & disbelief. No texts from personal connections about $BTC. 56 days until halving. ETFs are breaking records & seeing an influx of capital. Trend is up.

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

2 years

1/ #Bitcoin & the 4-week Williams%R oscillator are flashing an exciting signal. When there's a full oscillation from "oversold" to "overbought", it indicates a momentum thrust. There are six occurrences since Jan 2020. After the weekly thrust, the avg. 1-month return is +25%.

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

2 years

Can we just expedite this, please.

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

2 years

Not bullish price structure for #Bitcoin

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

2 months

Such a scam shakeout. I'm more bullish now than before.

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

2 years

I was inspired by @AurelienOhayon 's recent analysis, overlaying $BTC's price with the Stochastic oscillator of the S&P 500. B/c #Bitcoin is so tightly correlated to $IGV since October 2021, I implemented the analysis w/ $IGV's stochastic. Beautiful signal! But it gets better...

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

2 months

SEE YOU ALL AT $175,000 (MY TARGET SINCE Q4'23).

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

5 months

There’s a weird romanticism that macro folks have about predicting the next recession. I understand it, but I can’t relate to it. Doom here. Doom there. A recession is coming. The event horizon is approaching. Financial crisis this, auto loans that, delinquencies bleh. Fear,…

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

3 years

$FTM - One of the strongest short-term trends in all of mainstream crypto right now. Former resistance becomes support after each breakout. Already working again in the most recent case. The 21 & 55 EMA’s are accelerating higher. Will this continue to ramp higher?

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

14 days

Alright fam… It’s my birthday weekend 📈 After 3 consecutive years of publishing new research every single weekend, I’m taking my first weekend off. Back to the regularly scheduled programming of Cubic Analytics next week! Love you all 🧡

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

2 months

I said it in November and I'll say it again now: The #Bitcoin halving is not priced in. If it was, BTC mining stocks would be trading at significantly higher valuations. Investors & Wall Street are still concerned about post-halving sustainability. They wouldn't be worried if…

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

2 years

#Bitcoin is converging w/ the 10-year Treasury yield $TNX This was an important finding when I shared it in December, suggesting that $BTC was NOT behaving like a risk-asset & was indeed an inflation hedge. The correlation is surging back, suggesting: Yields ↑ Bitcoin ↑

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

3 months

How high can Render $RNDR go? As one of the top AI names, dream big. Then dream even bigger. I see price going to $21.

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

2 months

#Bitcoin miners shitting the bed (once again). I will begin to formally roll my entire stock BTC mining companies into $MSTR going forward. Rotation will be completed within 2 weeks, max. You guys can stick to the "cheerleader" analysts or someone who adapts. Your choice.

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

2 years

The Nasdaq-100 officially flashed a bullish signal for July 2022, with the 18-month Williams%R Oscillator closing above the oversold threshold. This is only the 5th signal since 1987. In prior signals, the bottom was already in. Statistically, this is bullish for risk assets.

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

2 months

My $57,000 #Bitcoin target was hit overnight on a pump wick, but we've since consolidated & are starting to regain upside momentum again. We're going to smash through this level & flip it into support. Called this target out at $40k. Congrats to everyone who rode the +41% gain!

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

5 months

$20k green candle when (not if) the #Bitcoin ETF’s (plural) get approved. That’s just my 2 Satoshis.

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

1 month

I bought more $MSTR this morning at $1,690 & again just now at $1,740. Net cost basis is now $713/share. This trade depends on #Bitcoin and that's how it's been since day 1. If BTC goes up, MSTR outperforms BTC. If BTC goes down, MSTR underperforms BTC. I'm bullish on $BTC.

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

1 month

Fam, listen. I'm going through a bunch of 1M, 2M, and 3M charts for #Bitcoin and $TOTAL, using a handful of different statistical indicators. I don't think we're bullish enough. There's so much confluence & cyclically bullish signals that are flashing over the past few months.

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

1 month

#Bitcoin is flirting w/ $70k & there's essentially zero enthusiasm on my feed & no one in my personal life asking about crypto or if now is a good time to invest. Bears can't keep it below $65k for more than a few days. $65,000. Sixty five thousand! That's their best effort.

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

5 months

So those #Bitcoin miners are really going to rip tomorrow.

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

1 year

"Game Over" setup for Ethereum #ETH ?

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

2 months

Probably VERY FUCKING IMPORTANT.

Eric Balchunas

@EricBalchunas

2 months

It's official..the New Nine Bitcoin ETFs have broken all time volume record today with $2.4b, just barely beating Day One but about double their recent daily average. $IBIT went wild accounting for $1.3b of it, breaking its record by about 30%.

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

1 year

When risk is subsidized, the demand for risk will explode. Imagine if a firm was told: "Invest all of my money and don't worry if you lose it all, because any losses are fully insured so I'll get it back." What would the firm do? Take ALL the risk. There are two outcomes: 1.…

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

10 days

Where did I go wrong with Microstrategy $MSTR? The better question is, "where did I go wrong with my bullishness on BTC?", but I don't have an answer for that right now. As I said in March, MSTR was the best proxy for BTC & would underperform in an environment where BTC fell.…

Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

2 months

Too many mid-curvers are trying to analyze Microstrategy $MSTR fundamentals instead of just recognizing that it's a #Bitcoin proxy w/ leverage. 🟠 $BTC ⚫️ Microstrategy relative to BTC (MSTR/BTC) When $BTCUSD goes up, $MSTR/BTC rises. When $BTCUSD goes down, $MSTR/BTC falls.

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

1 year

Here's the Nasdaq-100 relative to the Russell 2000 (NDX/RUT). This captures large-cap tech relative to small-caps. The only times it's been higher than it is right now: • The Dot Com Bubble • The 2nd half of 2020 Could it go higher? Yes. Am I buying tech right now? No.

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

6 months

#Bitcoin has gained +139% over the past year and 70% of all BTC in circulation hasn't been sold / transferred. Now that's conviction.

Will

@WClementeIII

6 months

The percentage of Bitcoin supply that hasn’t moved in at least a year just breached 70% for the first time. Wow.

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

2 years

#Bitcoin remains "oversold" based on the 12-month Williams%R oscillator, a signal that flashed for May 2022. Typically, $BTC stays oversold for an avg. of 8 months w/ a max drawdown of -53% after signal occurs. Current max drawdown has been -44%. Accumulation mode.

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

2 months

So we got the leverage flush with massive liquidations and we immediately climb back above $62,000? Bears are so fucked.

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

1 year

#Bitcoin has formed a double-smiley face pattern, an extremely bullish but rare signal. Don't sleep on this! It's even more powerful than the double walled fulcrum pattern!

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

2 months

Bitcoin mining stocks are some of the most misunderstood assets on Wall Street and FinX. #Bitcoin is up +18.5% since last Friday's close. Over the same time, #BTC mining stocks are up +20%. Major underperformance in the past two trading sessions, but the huge thrust on Monday…

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

2 years

@POTUS Therapist: “Is the ‘analyst�� in the room with us right now?”

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

2 years

#Bitcoin in log scale & weekly candles. Pay attention to the 4-week rate of change indicator at the bottom of the chart. We continue to coil in this range since the peak in January 2021, confirming that we've been in a consolidation. A breakout may indicate a momentum shift.

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

2 months

You guys don't even want to hear my ETH cycle target. You'll think I'm crazy.

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

1 year

We're going sub-$20k again aren't we?

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

10 months

The market is not in a bubble when the S&P 493 are trading at a P/E of 17x.

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

1 year

I sold my #Bitcoin at $21,950 and bought it all back at $21,940. #Alpha

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

2 months

None of us own enough #Bitcoin

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

1 year

If (when) #BNB breaks below this red range, it has so much room to fall. Literally, zero structural support until the teal zone. If red support breaks, the price target is $25-$40. That's implied downside of at least -82% from here. Weekly candles:

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

1 year

11 days of practically zero price action for #Bitcoin

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

3 months

#Bitcoin just completed an A→B→C thrust for the 2-year Williams%R Oscillator (one of my favorite $BTC indicators). A: break above overbought B: fall below overbought C: break above point A The last time this happened was in October 2020, before price gained +390% in 6 months.

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

1 year

Fun fact: nobody knows wtf is going on.

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

4 months

Classic "breakout, retest, rebound" setup for #Bitcoin here.

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

11 months

Jerome Powell today:

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

6 months

You guys do realize that the next resistance zone for #Bitcoin is between $44,000 and $48,000 right? Right...?

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

1 year

#Bitcoin is preparing to secure the first green monthly Heikin Ashi candle since November 2021! Historically, A green monthly candle after 5+ months of red candles has marked the end of each bear market. This time could be different, but add this to the bullish ammo.

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

6 months

The halving isn’t priced in, even remotely. Otherwise, the #Bitcoin miners WOULD be participating in this market environment. Almost all of them are down -50% or more from their YTD highs. Please tell me that you understand this.

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

4 months

MatrixPort, a firm that I've never heard of comes out and says that (in their view) the spot #Bitcoin ETFs won't be approved by the SEC this month. They are one firm. They might be right. They might be wrong. This report is causing this selloff in #Bitcoin this morning.

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

4 months

The last time we had this much volume in a red weekly candle was in Q4 2022, when all of you wish you bought more.

Matthew Hyland

@MatthewHyland_

4 months

#BTC Weekly Volume on Coinbase at highest level since last March:

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

1 month

Woke up w/ a lot of gratitude today, more than normal. I have to pinch myself sometimes that I'm living the reality that I envisioned for myself when I quit my job in corporate banking and decided to trade & share analysis full-time. Thanks for being on this journey w/ me fam🧡

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

2 years

Massive drawdowns test an investor’s conviction and forces them to reconsider their allocation & investment thesis. #Bitcoin fell -53% from the ATH’s and I didn’t flinch, even though $BTC is 75% of my investable assets. Here’s a 1-pager I wrote to keep me focused on the thesis:

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

1 month

#Bitcoin just completed its highest quarterly close of all-time. The 3-month candle also flashed a bullish supertrend signal for the first time since Q4'20 & Q1'13. Those are the only 2 other comps. If you like this, you'll love the 30+ charts in today's report. Link in bio.

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

4 months

Okay jokes aside, this whole situation is fishy as fuck.

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

2 years

Stay vigilant, anon.

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

2 years

When did #Bitcoin bottom in 2018? When the Fed announced that they were pausing rate hikes. When did $BTC bottom in 2020? When the Fed announced infinite QE. When did $BTC peak in 2021? When the Fed announced tapering & reduction of QE. Lose the indicators, just watch the Fed.

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

2 years

I don't own enough Bitcoin.

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

2 months

Over the next 6+ months, people will start to tell us that we got lucky. Kudos to everyone who put in the work, went through the depths of the bear market, and came out the other side better for it. The grind doesn't stop. Keep working hard fam.

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

2 years

Why are asset prices falling? B/c of a strong dollar. Why is the dollar rising? B/c of rising yields. Why are yields rising? B/c the Federal Reserve is tightening. Why is the Fed tightening? B/c inflation is historically high.

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

4 months

Roast me.

Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

4 months

$50,000 by end of day.

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

3 months

When #Bitcoin hit $51k for the first time this cycle on February 14th, the 21-day EMA was trading at $45,600. Today, #Bitcoin is still trading at $51k, but the 21-day EMA has risen to $49,200. I think that's a great sign because the 21-day EMA has been solid dynamic support.

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

3 months

A big player just gobbled up some #BTC

InvestAnswers

@invest_answers

3 months

Monster $1.3BN #Bitcoin buy - 26,200 $BTC at $51K. Looks bullish, perhaps SWF, Jeff Bezos, Zuck, or some other HNW individual. 🚀 PS this is not an ETF wallet.

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

2 months

A year ago, you dreamed of $67,500. Today, you're scared of $67,500.

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

5 months

DO NOT TELL YOUR SIGNIFICANT OTHER, FRIENDS OR PARENTS HOW MUCH MONEY YOU’RE MAKING RIGHT NOW IN CRYPTO. DONT RUIN THIS FOR US.

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

2 years

I'm starting to see a growing risk that the Fed over-tightens. One policy mistake doesn't fix the prior one. The Fed is walking a tightrope of short-term inflation dynamics vs. long-run inflation expectations. They're essentially trying to time the market. Risky business.

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

3 months

I haven't had any normie friends ask me about #Bitcoin or crypto since mid-December 2023. Weak hands got flushed. Those with interest but no conviction stayed sidelined. They'll be buyers at new ATH's. See you at the top. GM.

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

2 years

What do you think happens when #Bitcoin is able to break above this critical support/resistance range in red, around $46k? Breakout or rejection is imminent, but the rising white wedge gives me a bullish bias to achieve a breakout. Daily candles from November 2021 ATH’s:

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

2 months

It’s just embarrassing at this point. WE GO UP!

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

1 year

Silvergate Capital ❌ Silicon Valley Bank ❌ Signature Bank of New York ❌ Credit Suisse ❌ First Republic Bank ⌛️ Capital One⌛️ Pacific Western Bank ⌛️ Deutsche Bank ⌛️

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

8 days

Worth watching, very closely.

Bitcoin News

@BitcoinNewsCom

8 days

JUST IN: M2 money supply turns positive for first time since late 2022 👀

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

4 months

I told you guys that a reclaim above $40.7k was a risk-on signal for #Bitcoin and that we could begin to target higher levels. We've accomplished that signal now. If we fall below $40.1k, that's a risk-off signal. Reiterate my target of the 161.8% fib level at $57k.

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

3 months

I will be buying this on every -20% decline in #Bitcoin going forward. Ticker is $BTFX. I'm going to do me. You do you.

*Walter Bloomberg

@DeItaone

3 months

❖ VALKYRIE LAUNCHES 2X LEVERAGED BITCOIN FUTURES ETF

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

3 months

#Bitcoin didn't even need to retest the former base and it was able to find support at a random spot and then hook back above the recent lows. Which one of you sold? Raise your hand. Jk, I know none of you guys would fall for that weak selloff. Carry on.

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

2 months

Waking up to #Bitcoin making new all-time highs. GM FAM!

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

4 months

ETF approval is coming just in time for halving narrative. The halving narrative is coming just in time for rate cuts. We're about to monkey swing from one bullish narrative to the next, amidst a broader & healthy bull market for equities. Read pinned post & don't overthink it.

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

24 days

Unpopular opinion: 99% of crypto traders would be better off if they focused on increasing their income or owning 100% equity in a high-growth business and using their brokerage account as a savings vehicle. I have no incentive to tell you this. Let's use #BTC as an example.…

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

5 months

My mom has always wanted to go to Cinque Terre, so I said “let’s go to Cinque Terre.”

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

2 years

In February, I shared that #Bitcoin was having a bullish crossover of 2 linear regression slope indicators. Red = 55 day regression White = 89 day regression Statistically, we've been in a bullish environment since 2/14/22 (crossover). Need a high-momentum breakout above $46k.

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

2 months

Bruv we're going so much higher. It's just obvious. LOOK AT THE PRICE ACTION AND HOW SELLOFFS GET IMMEDIATELY ABSORBED IN A RISK-ON ENVIRONMENT. IT'S NOT ROCKET SCIENCE!

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Caleb Franzen

@CalebFranzen

2 months

#Bitcoin bottomed on November 21, 2022. An investor with $100,000 who wanted to buy BTC exposure had 3 options: buy $BTC, buy $MSTR, or buy the best-in-class miner $MARA. Here's how much their $100k investment is worth today: $BTC = $450,000 $MSTR = $1,190,000 $MARA = $350,000

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