Anne Stevenson-Yang @doumenzi Twitter profile

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

4 months

sorry, us edition in March, not May.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

1 year

Access from outside China to all economic databases is now totally cut off. No corporate information on Hong Kong or mainland companies, no Customs data, no financial information. I guess the goal is that no one develop an independent view of China.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

2 years

In a real shocker, many Chinese property statistics have disappeared from the public domain.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

1 year

This is the most sensible and informed piece on Chinese politics I've read in a year and is worth reading in its entirety:

Editors’ picks for 2022: ‘How firm is Xi Jinping’s grip on power?’ | The Strategist

Originally published 14 October 2022. Rumours that President Xi Jinping was under house arrest amid a military coup in China—apparently driven by Falun Gong–linked social media accounts known for...

www.aspistrategist.org.au

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

5 years

@JaneMayerNYer @realDonaldTrump I think you want this link:

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

2 years

China cement production November down 18.6% YoY, lowest November for cement since 2011. Bad sign for the economy, good for the planet.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

1 year

Big question now: is there a significant bureaucratic faction that supports the protests? My guess is yes. Cadres in many areas have lost income & may blame lockdowns as much as real estate. At the center, Zero Covid shills were promoted, and that must anger those passed over.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

1 year

So I'm just coming out and saying it:

«I Think There Has Been an Internal Revolt against Xi Jinping»

Beijing abruptly lifts the Zero-Covid policy and takes a more business-friendly course. What is behind these moves? How do they impact the economic outlook for China? And what does it mean for...

themarket.ch

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

4 years

People keep writing papers on whether Huawei is owned or controlled by the Chinese gov't. When Huawei can get two unrelated Canadians imprisoned for years and tried as spies, why is it even an interesting question?

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

4 years

Someone explain to me how China can avoid negative growth in Q1 with factories closed, retail outlets closed, flights and trains dramatically curtailed, imports likely falling through the floor. What's this "two points off GDP" talk about?

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

3 years

Turns out #Evergrande submitted several bankruptcy plans last winter but they were ignored. Maybe authorities thought they were crying wolf and begging for Shenzhen float, or maybe bureaucracies are just too fragmented, so nobody takes responsibility.

虽公开澄清，但恒大破产重组的概率非常大

虽公开澄清，但恒大破产重组的概率非常大,恒大,房地产,万科,现金流,土储

www.163.com

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

3 years

@Marcus4Georgia I love how "second amendment" for the far right has come to mean "the right to shoot (non-white) people."

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

3 years

@jelani9 The whole "just think if a Democrat had done that" narrative does not work precisely because we are dealing with a party faction that believes they uniquely should hold extra-Constitutional power.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

4 years

Rand estimates that China under-counted its Covid19 cases by almost 40x. A few months ago, I would have been shocked:

COVID-19 Cases in China Were Likely 37 Times Higher Than Reported in January 2020

Based on officially reported cases in China in January 2020, the odds of the novel coronavirus appearing by January 22, 2020, in Japan, Thailand, South Korea, the United States, and Taiwan—as it...

www.rand.org

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

9 months

Wow, Chinese trade just tanking. Exports down 12% in June, imports 7%.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

3 years

Hilarious. Press guidelines in China: "Stress the glorious motherland. Do not mention Huawei. Do not mention the two Canadians."

郭于华

@yuhuaguo

3 years

转发供参考，微信上的未经验证：各宣船部门及网媒注意：1,关于孟回国一事，要多从祖国强大、斗争胜利的角度进行报道，尽量不要提及她和华为的关系，尤其不要炒作她曾是华为高管之类。 2,两名加国人获释一事，全网不要进行报道。 3,各网站不要分析中美加三国所谓内幕交易，也不要再回顾孟当年被扣押的…

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

3 years

One thing to remember, as Xi Jinping razes the ground for private companies: he has consistently botched everything he's attempted by launching ambitious new initiatives that have disastrous unanticipated consequences and none of the expected positive ones.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

4 years

I'm going to name my dog CFA and tell everyone I have a CFA. I bet my income will rise.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

5 years

To reiterate: China now spends more in debt service than it earns in incremental GDP. And leaders know it. Stimulus would only exacerbate. They're drinking own Koolaid and believe they can gradually solve the problem. Hence, they will not do another 2016-type stimulus.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

1 year

Simple question that no foreigner seems to ask: Has Xi in 10 years improved a single thing in China? Is anyone's life better (besides his own)?

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

2 years

How come everyone in China suddenly seems to have "bronchitis" and a high fever?

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

1 year

The data has never been reliable. But it did proliferate, and you could triangulate and check one source against another. Now it's just He says Xi says.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

2 years

I would love to say "I told you so" to all those China people who thought the 18th Party Congress in 2012 was a great move toward reform and Xi was a reformer. But they've forgotten now.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

3 years

The $DIDI thing is a giant FU to US regulators. You know the story of Al Capone's empty vault? The point is that, by the time the PCAOB actually gets access to Chinese audit papers, there won't be anything there.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

6 years

Thought bubble: Jack's announced retirement from $BABA, because he "loves education," marks a decisive turning point for the Chinese economy. If anyone knows when the fat & happy times are over, it's Jack Ma.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

2 years

I know it's true but I can never quite get over it. The stock of credit in China, by official numbers, went from ¥14 trillion in 2002 to ¥284 trn last year. That's 2.5x the assets in the US banking system--and it took us 150 years to get there.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

3 years

We asked a lot of property analysts in China how #Evergrande got the money to restart construction and pay interest. "Umm, I need to ask the Communications Department." "We have not discussed this" [hang up] "Ask Evergrande" etc.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

2 years

Usually when they fake GDP growth, the Chinese also make up underlying numbers so it will seem more plausible. This time, they seem to have just decreed that 4.8% is the number.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

3 years

How come everyone thinks the "Chinese government" understands Evergrande? Not unlike thinking Kim Jong-Un can get a hole-in-one, figure out the best way to bake bread, and discover a means for smelting iron, all before 10 am.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

5 years

China auto sales down another 16% in November. Sales decline accelerating.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

2 years

All these articles in the Chinese press about how it's fine to delay spring planting b/c of Covid give me a very creepy Great Leap Forward feeling.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

2 years

So, $BABA's report shows that each of the 828 mln active customers on BABA's Chinese retail platforms spent ¥652.53 on Nov 11. That is especially remarkable, since China's premier says that 600 mln people have less than ¥1,000/month in income.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

4 years

Me to Chinese relative: "How are the restaurants and taxi drivers and shop owners going to survive this?" Relative: "Don't worry, the government is going to pay all of them."

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

2 years

ICBC is limiting withdrawals and transfers to ¥10,000 right now.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

2 years

We are now instructed to call the lockdown the "Great Battle to Defend Shanghai." And it wasn't a lockdown, it was "static management."

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

2 years

Some of the cities with pricing floors on property, ie, you are not allowed to sell below a given price: Changchun, Shenyang, Yueyang, Kunming, Tangshan, Guilin, Huizhou, Xuzhou, Anqing, Yangzhou, Xiangyang

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

6 years

@krassenstein

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

6 years

@PalmerReport @realDonaldTrump Or use the word "decimated"

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

5 years

23 of 30 Chinese provinces in their 2019 budgets project lower revenue than in 2018. But the economy is growing at 6.5%....

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

5 years

Chinese residential completions and sales both negative YTD and yet starts strongly rising. Why? Because you need a "start" to get a sales permit to pre-sell the building and get cash in the door when you can't get a loan.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

1 year

Elite division is key to any revolutionary success.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

5 years

@HuffPostPol Go Rams

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

2 years

Another bank run: Nanjing Bank. This one explicitly tied to Evergrande.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

6 years

It seems that Chinese people are starting to get a glimmer of understanding that real estate has been just a means for political elites to rip off all their savings.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

1 year

It's been happening since they cut off Customs data access in early 2018. There was the ban on access to corporate financial data. Then they made you register with an identity card to access registration information for companies in Hong Kong.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

6 years

@paulkrugman Don't forget that, since the RNC had to stop paying Trump's legal bills in the FBI probe last September, they switched to paying $37K/mo in "rent" at Trump Tower.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

6 years

Best thing I've read this week. New insights: 1. $BABA is principally a tool for elite capital flight. That is not a bug, it's a feature. 2. The SEC has abdicated any regulatory role.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

4 years

I wish I had some actual skills. What will I do in the collapse of society? Offer to do financial modeling for the homeless?

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

3 years

J Cap account on Twitter is still locked because we exposed "intimate information" (from public court filings) about $BTBT, like the fact that the whole executive team is in jail....So amusing how screwed up these platforms' information controls are.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

6 years

Today's quote (Dalian real estate, 85% sold, to be delivered in two years): "We don't advise buyers to live here. We built small units to make them convenient as investments."

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

3 years

There's a huge drop in domestic sales of excavators in China--a great leading indicator for construction. Down 31.7% in August YoY. Exports down less, -13.7%, an indicator of financing.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

4 years

Stop and ponder for a minute that #Evergrande 's AVERAGE interest on debt is 8.99%--official report, not the leaked "plea" document. Says all you need to know about the Chinese bubble.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

1 year

They cut various streams of economic data to the database companies. They stopped international access to company look-ups like Tianyancha, Qichacha, and Qixin.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

3 years

Maximum cringe

Asia Tech

@asiatechwire

3 years

Huawei employees dance and present flowers as Wanzhou Meng comes to work after quarantine.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

3 years

Consider what the average Chinese person would think if s/he knew that tax money was being spent on this stuff.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

4 years

More scary Chinese aggression:

Chinese Troops Cross Into India, Fortify Positions

Indian media report Chinese military build-up along the Himalayan border

legalinsurrection.com

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

4 years

How did I miss this? The Securities Law amendments passed in March forbid Chinese companies from providing information to foreign regulators without approval of the CSRS or the State Council. Hilarious.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

3 years

September 2020 survey by the PBOC: China has 96% home ownership and 10.4% of households own at least 3 units.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

2 years

@scottjshapiro GOP in 2016: Private mail servers are treason! GOP in 2022: Well, SOME nuclear secrets are okay to keep in your clubhouse.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

6 years

@JamesFallows Which is to say very simply that the "base" is about racism.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

3 years

Lest you think it's only #Evergrande , here's a list of some of the real estate bond defaults this year.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

4 years

As we digest the Xinjiang papers, this is a good moment to acknowledge @austinramzy and @ChuBailiang for reminding us of why journalism is still important and even heroic.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

5 years

@djrothkopf @ewarren @Leona1970 If DC residents were mostly white, DC would have been a state 50 years ago.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

3 years

Examples that come to mind: internationalization of the RMB, the OBOR (BRI) outreach to SE Asia, megacities like Jingjinji, clearing migrants out of the big cities, Hong Kong....Just getting started here

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

1 year

Corrected: China's news media tell people that opening up without preparation is actually a sign of the CCP's wisdom and determination.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

6 years

@kylegriffin1 Who the f--- are those 33%?

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

6 years

@krassenstein What the hell is wrong with the other 59%?

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

6 years

Wow. China land sales in October down ~30% YoY, top 100 cities. Land prices of course up at least 50%. Supply volume up, as cities really need the ¥¥.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

6 years

Whenever I think I've been too alarmist about the Chinese economy I just leave Beijing, Shanghai, or Shenzhen and realize I haven't been alarmist enough.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

4 years

@isaacstonefish I personally know someone who tested positive in Beijing today....

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

2 years

Beijing is offering elderly people ¥2,000 to get vaccinated. Kind of makes you wonder about that reported 93% vax rate.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

6 years

I can't tell you how many Chinese companies explain their businesses by saying that Chinese people have a lot of money and don't care about wasting it.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

2 years

I guess China gave up on crushing shadow banking. We're back to levels not seen since 2017.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

4 years

Here's betting that the $LK default is a harbinger, not an anomaly.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

6 years

The interesting thing about this is that Chinese officials are talking about systemic collapse, while foreign analysts are ridiculed if they do:

Beijing Has Tools to Prevent Systemic Collapse, Regulator Says

CSRC Vice Chairman Fang Xinghai responds to concerns that China could spawn world’s next financial crisis

www.caixinglobal.com

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

2 years

Has anyone wondered why $Tencent, with supposedly $26 BILLION in cash on account, distributed JD shares in lieu of cash dividends?

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

6 years

Today's taxi driver owns just 4 apartments. Says many friends own 10-20. He works 60 hours/week for ¥5,000 net. Apts are nominally worth ~¥6 mln. I did the math for him and asked why he doesn't sell 2 and quit. He didn't know. Like every other low-income person I ever met here.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

2 years

Some 15% of Chinese own at least 3 apartment units. The top 1% probably own dozens.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

7 months

A bottle of wine to whoever figures out who in China took the money.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

3 years

Covid is the new "the dog ate my homework"

Chinese Developer Modern Land Fails to Repay $250 Million U.S. Dollar Bond

The Hong Kong-listed real-estate company that focuses on green projects, failed to repay the bond that matured Monday, adding to a string of missed payments by Chinese real-estate companies.

www.wsj.com

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

2 years

China steel production continues down in October 14.9%.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

5 years

Chinese auto sales continue to drop like a stone in water, 14% in November, supporting my point that consumption is completely bound to capital markets.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

5 years

@djrothkopf @kaitlancollins @jaketapper Even if it does break the law, as long as you have a Justice Department that will protect you against the Constitution.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

5 years

In fact, everything about the Chinese economy suggests that it just dropped off a cliff last September. People seem to be feeling reasonably confident though. You get a lot of "the government will step in and save us."

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

2 years

The PBOC is issuing a pack of low-interest (1.75%) loans for "green" projects. Here's betting that a bunch of real estate projects soon find out that they are actually green.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

5 years

Chinese highway freight traffic reported up 8.7% in March against a 14% decline in diesel use, and up 5.6% in April against 19% diesel decline. Kind of makes you winder how useful the freight data are.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

4 years

China's labor force is supposed to be 40% migrants. Provinces and many cities are requiring 14-day quarantines at own expense for any travel. Many have blanket bans on migrants. Yet cos are saying 85% of activity is back. How does that work? Genuinely confused.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

5 years

RMB just broke 7:1. Now anything can happen.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

2 years

So, China is going to set a growth target for 2022 of over 5%. That means stimulus, and a lot of it.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

4 years

I could give you 20 other stories like this one. It may be dawning on US businesses that 90% of the gains realized in China have been to owners of capital, not to consumers and certainly not to labor.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

5 years

I wonder when PIIE is going to get a clue that "private" and "state" are almost entirely irrelevant terms in a China that regularly takes over firms and doles out their assets at will, no matter who owns them.

China's Private Firms Continue to Struggle

The plight of China’s private firms, which produce about two-thirds of China’s GDP, has received widespread attention, as private credit to these firms has lagged behind the flow to state-owned...

www.piie.com

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

6 years

Favorite comment this week, head of engineering firm that employs ~800 people, large Chinese city: "95% of my employees spend at least 70% of their income on mortgages."

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

2 years

Don't you love the elements of capitalism China has embraced? Buybacks and mass layoffs, all the while talking about common prosperity. Capitalism for me, socialism for thee.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

6 years

Typical China conversation: Me: How much are property prices up here? Gov't guy: About 120% in less than a year. Me: So are people selling their places? Him: No, there's no market. But they plan to sell in 5-6 years.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

6 years

@krassenstein Actually 22% of the NATO budget. US spends more on the military in Europe but that is by choice. Trump has RAISED military spending not dropped it.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

3 years

Telling people to stop using elevators on low floors to conserve electricity in Guangdong. Factories in the Northeast having brownouts. State Grid "in danger of collapse." GD people being told to get their own generators. What's this really about?

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

5 years

China's government is starting to worry about consumer leverage. Reporting a high of 96% for Xiamen residents, 68% for Shanghai. But you have to remember that the denominator, these families' assets, which are mostly real estate, is drastically inflated.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

5 years

If you want to know whether China is stimulating, this is the number to watch: M1. The answer: No.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

5 years

More Chinese efforts to replace Hong Kong as a financial center. Not going to happen. One of the great things about the Hong Kong events is how they demonstrate that rule of law is what makes an economy work:

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

5 years

The discrepancy between Customs' reported trade balance and the net that Chinese banks report taking in on the trade account in September was $62 bln. It was $44 bln in October. I'd say capital flight has restarted in earnest.

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Anne Stevenson-Yang

@doumenzi

3 years

The Chinese authorities clearly don't want a big, public #Evergrande bailout, just a quiet, private one. But these things are pro-cyclical. Moral hazard = collapse. Just can't square that circle.

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