Convequity @convequity Twitter profile

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Convequity

2 years

$PANW valuation exercise. Not investment advice. A quick sum-of-parts relative valuation using $CHKP, $ZS, and $CRWD. Simply just add up each ones market cap and compare the total against $PANW.

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Convequity

@convequity

5 months

Here are 40 stocks across cybersecurity, productivity, data, and observability. We're using GP multiples because many of these names are FCF negative or just breakeven. $MNDY is such a standout bargain from a relative perspective. In the 25%+ NTM growth cohort, the main

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Convequity

@convequity

2 months

$PLTR - It can do dev copilot like $GTLB and GitHub $MSFT - It can build data pipelines like $CFLT - It can do data governance like $SNOW - It can create semantic layers like dbt Labs - It can provision infra like $HCP and $AMZN - It can coordinate workflows like $MNDY - It can

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Convequity

@convequity

10 months

Is revenue per employee an underused metric? It is arguably the rawest metric you can obtain and cuts through the noise by offering an insight into a company's long-term profitability potential. Usually a high revenue per employee would translate into a high FCF margin, but

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Convequity

@convequity

10 months

As an investor, what should the terminal FCF margin be of a given software growth stock? A very important question because it has a big impact on the valuation. Making a forecast on terminal FCF margin also contains a lot of potential alpha because it’s notfactored in the

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Convequity

@convequity

9 months

Ranking stocks by Rule of 40 (inc. SBC) and EV/(FCF-SBC) is a quick way to notice relative value. Negative EV/(FCF-SBC) stocks do not have a EV/(FCF-SBC) ranking but are included in the Positive EV/(FCF-SBC) stocks' rankings. We're not surprised to see $FTNT ranking the

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Convequity

@convequity

1 year

We dived deeper into $SNOW competitive landscape in part 2 of the analysis. We see rampant competition from the private side, contrary to what the public believes. The moat/entry barrier isn't different vs.endpoint security market of $S and $CRWD

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Convequity

@convequity

10 months

Really great analysis for major cloud players. $MSFT and $GOOGL love to group SaaS productivity suites together with cloud infra revenue to cheat investors that they are not far behind $AMZN AWS. This forces analysts to build estimates to understand the true market status of

Dave Vellante

@dvellante

10 months

This week's Breaking Analysis digs deeper into the leaked Microsoft Azure cloud data. We've revised our numbers & share them here. We also highlight some quality research by @dhinchcliffe of @constellationr @ETRnews

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Convequity

@convequity

11 months

Many believe that OpenAI and $MSFT have a deep moat due to the cost associated with training a model. MosaicML revealed a different story here. MPT-30B takes ~$700k on H100 in 11.6 days. Interesting to see that $ORCL OCI is used for A100 and CoreWeaver is used for H100

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Convequity

@convequity

10 months

Here is a Rule of 40 (adjusted for SBC) ranking accompanied by brief ST & LT investment considerations for each stock. $FTNT: ST >>> tightly converged networking & security powered by highly performant custom silicon makes FTNT the most accommodative SASE player, one of the

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Convequity

@convequity

2 years

$SNOW vs. Databricks etc. unclear who will win. But the more I look into their architectures, the more I am convinced $AMZN is a sure winner. Assuming 100 PB per enterprise with 1000 customers and $0.022 per GB per month, AWS S3 alone will have ~26bn in ARR and 50%+ FCF margin.

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Convequity

@convequity

2 years

1/11. Assessing who is the better at endpoint security - $S or $CRWD – is kind of academic coz both will sustain high growth for many years to come.

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Convequity

@convequity

2 months

Snowflake vs. Databricks comp is definitively more heated than before as the former enters ML/AI while the latter enters CDW SQL & Governance. Both are doing well, but Databricks has $250m+ ARR from CDW while $SNOW's Snowpark is inching closer to $100m. However, on a high

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Convequity

@convequity

4 months

Although there has been tons of hope for $GOOGL to strike back with Gemini, I think it is clear that its execution has been lacklustre and fallen short of expectation. One key driver is simply the talent. The exodus of Google Brain and DeepMind talent is just massive. And

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Convequity

@convequity

1 year

Apple $AAPL computer chips (M-series) are becoming a cost-effective alternative to $NVDA. These Apple chips are able to do LLM inference, or text/token generation at lower costs. (1 token = 0.75 word) With the latest $META's Llama 65B model that supports M2 Max and M2 Ultra,

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Convequity

@convequity

2 months

Part of $NVDA's moat & value-add is its control of the networking for AI data center. And $AVGO remains the only alternative chip vendor to it, while $ANET served as the end OEM. $META's latest two H100 DCs use two different networking infra, one from $NVDA's full stack

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Convequity

@convequity

14 days

$SNOW is acquiring Reka AI for $1bn. This is a bold move with tons of uncertainties in both upsides and downsides ahead. Reka raised $58m, last valued at $300m in 2023. Snowflake Venture also invested in it. Snowflake is now doubling down on the foundation model. After

Convequity

@convequity

1 month

$SNOW Snowflake is releasing its open-sourced LLM called Arctic: - 480B in size - 10B + 128 x 3.66B Dense + MoE Hybrid - 2 active experts - Single GPU node inferencing w/ FP8 - Great in text-to-SQL Overall, I think this is mixed. Going into OS LLM is going to take more

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Convequity

@convequity

21 days

Anthropic CEO: models today cost ~$100m by the end of 24, and early 25, it will cost close to $1bn and in the next 2-3 years, 26' 27', it will cost $5-10bn. I think this will surprise many as exponential growth in both performance and cost for LLM in the future will not be

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Convequity

@convequity

8 months

A good read on Jim Keller, the chip guru who saved $AMD, created $AAPL & $TSLA's custom silicon dominance, and recently $INTC. Some interesting comments on AMD when everyboday thought it was dead, and Intel, which is still an unfolding turnaround.

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Convequity

@convequity

1 year

$PLTR & $NET's new partnership for optimising multicloud costs has great potential. NET has an ultra-efficient infra that enables it undercut the big 3 hyperscalers on networking, compute, & storage. However, to dent S3's moat, NET needs to deliver min 2x better price/perf.

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Convequity

@convequity

2 months

$PLTR We have received some questions about PLTR, such as how is the company different to certain other pioneering software companies. Here we'll share our thoughts on the similarities & differences between PLTR and $SNOW, $MNDY, and GenAI startups? PLTR vs $SNOW

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Convequity

@convequity

6 months

It still amazes me that $PLTR is still wildly misunderstood by some market participants, even in Dec 23'. One ETF manager: - Palantir is more of a consulting service. - They don't provide tools that you can use. - Expect slow growth. - Vendors like Snowflake $SNOW have the

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Convequity

@convequity

2 years

$FTNT investment case. Not investment advice 1) Secular tailwinds. 2) Significant relative mispricing. 3) Moderate DCF undervaluation. 4) Share buyback. $FTNT's been our best performer in the past 13 months though we're still looking to add on dips. This thread will explain why

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Convequity

@convequity

2 months

A few weeks after this tweet, $ZS acquired Airgap Networks for the exact weak spot we've pointed out here. It just doesn't make sense at all to force east-west traffic vis-à-vis talking to a neighbor via going to a remote proxy PoP and then come back to speak with someone

Convequity

@convequity

2 months

To deal with east west traffic security, $ZS has to build an appliance with local firewall policies, and L3 ACL. Essentially, Zscaler is building back to the on-prem "legacy" past world of $PANW and $FTNT after years of touting that the latter two are obsolete.

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Convequity

@convequity

9 months

Many expect $NET Cloudflare to be a big beneficiary of the GenAI hype. But IMO the edge inference story will play out many quarters afterwards. For now, each LLM inference takes 100+ms if not seconds, so moving from cloud to edge doesn't improve that much UX. But once the LLM

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Convequity

@convequity

10 months

$DOCN DigitalOcean is down by 22% after ER. Some investors are surprised, but we aren't. - Forward growth slowed to ~15%. - Mgt calling bottoming is here but has not ended yet. - Expect the newly acquired GPU VPS provider Paperspace to contribute 3% growth for the next year,

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Convequity

@convequity

10 months

A key takeaway from recent content related to $PLTR and AI: A good ontology is critical for training a LLM to be highly performant for a specific enterprise and/or domain. Imagine a student who has just completed school with good grades and decides to work as an apprentice for

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Convequity

@convequity

5 months

Who is your top cybersecurity stock for CY24? By looking at the last 4 columns of the @KoyfinCharts table IMO $FTNT has the most upside by a large margin. The company has the lowest EV/(FCF-SBC) among elite Rule of 40 names and its stock has only appreciated 18% in the past 1

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Convequity

@convequity

4 months

This annualized QoQ growth analysis was inspired by a great article by @StackInvesting where he deep dives into data infrastructure names $SNOW, $MDB, and $CFLT. The article's general thesis, backed by many insights and observations, was that cloud optimization by enterprises

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Convequity

@convequity

10 months

My impression on CEO & exec talks from Cloudflare, Crowdstrike, Zscaler, Okta, VMware, Snowflake: - $NET very product and NPS-focused. Leading the technical trend. - $CRWD generic messaging repeated = marketing oriented, catching up with some latest trends. - $ZS super

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Convequity

@convequity

11 days

GenAI is definitively creating a bubble in the short term. And cyclicality will kick-in eventually. It is quite interesting to hear Bridgewater CIO Karen's perspective: - Initially thought GenAI will bring in tons of deflation as it can automate and handle works 100x better.

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Convequity

@convequity

7 months

$PANW 1Q24 ER created a post-market gap down -14%, and closed at -6%. Some takes: Overall, lots of ST sentiment & questions on the ER call and across various channels. Consensus long = negative alpha this year. If everyone is congratulating & calling it a good company, the

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Convequity

@convequity

1 year

A few economic & technological advantages for $S vs $CRWD.

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Convequity

@convequity

10 months

Snowflake is creating a supercloud on top of all clouds. It starts by gathering all analytical data to the platform. Then it attracts more generic compute and transactional workload onboard. If successful, more apps will be deployed on $SNOW layer instead of cloud underlay

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Convequity

@convequity

11 months

$SNOW is gradually smoothing $CFLT out for the need for data streaming pipelines and real-time processing. Kafka will still be there as Snowflake demoed with the connector. But if this product is mature, it will cap $CFLT's potential bc it looks so simple to use + integrated

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Convequity

@convequity

10 months

We've just published the ER update for $FTNT. Here is a quick summary: - FTNT appears more attractively valued after a substantial expectation reset following its latest earnings release. Short-term headwinds persist for the next 4 quarters due to higher comparables,

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Convequity

@convequity

1 month

Gartner has released 2024 Magic Quadrant for SSE. It is quite satisfying to see Gartner gradually incorporates our views, esp for our SASO released in May 2023. Some thoughts: - $ZS Zscaler is further downgraded vs. $PANW Palo Alto Networks, which we believe has been long

Convequity

@convequity

1 year

8/ The caveat is that the network security platform in shaping is SASE, or we call it SASO as ultimately network security should be delivered in a hybrid form instead of cloud only. The space remains highly fragmented. But compared to 100+ point solution vendors that these 15

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Convequity

@convequity

9 months

Datadog looks like to be a unique player in the GenAI hype. While $PLTR, $GOOG, $MSFT and others are building a holistic platform, $DDOG is building observability products specifically for tracking and managing LLMs. This is a big value-add and differentiated.

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Convequity

@convequity

2 months

$PLTR Q) Why is ChatGPT so great on the Internet but we're not currently hearing about how great it is within enterprises? A) Ontologies Explanation: As most people know, ChatGPT has been trained on the Internet. Though, what most people don't know is that the Internet is

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Convequity

@convequity

2 months

I think many investors in endpoint security is missing the big picture. At the end of the day, $MSFT $CRWD $S and $PANW will benefit tremendously due to the great consolidation from traditional AV to XDR and beyond. $S and $PANW's XDR strength is not priced-in properly.

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Convequity

@convequity

8 months

Cloudflare has just introduced Workers AI. This is a big change for $NET. TL;DR = GPU serverless for inference, integrates with $META $MSFT and Databricks. Here is the summary and comments: 1. Bring in AI/DL inference to NET's edge platform means NET is rebuilding a twin

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Convequity

@convequity

3 months

Overall,t Zscaler will still be fine. Safe trip to $5bn ARR mark, but less visible further than that. Compared to other major players, its platform remains confined in the workforce NetSec as we've analyzed. Its expansion to workload security has been muted. But the mgt is

ace $

@acemoney21

3 months

$ZS numbers weren’t bad. Guide was ok too. Billings back end loaded but tbh cRPO was fine and that’s cause they have great visibility into their pipe They’re doing well in the federal space (contra to what we heard from Palo) and they’re winning those rly large custs + upselling

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Convequity

@convequity

11 days

Many questioned why $PANW used $GOOGL GCP for its Prisma SASE networking. Apart from technical complexities and GTM speed, it is also because Google Cloud has $10bn+ CAPEX on proprietary networking fiber globally. Even for Cloudflare, it is impossible to build

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Convequity

@convequity

1 year

$CRWD vs $S, key comp advantages: CS has the edge in EDR: more cust > more data > more polished AI > lower false positives. S1 has edge in XDR: better optimised data backend & greater variety of data source integrations.

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Convequity

@convequity

11 months

Intel $INTC predicts that the AI TAM is going to be 40bn+ by 2027 while only 40% from GPGPIUs like Nvidia $NVDA chip. This number is way lower than $NVDA's 300bn TAM.

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Convequity

@convequity

1 month

$SNOW Snowflake is releasing its open-sourced LLM called Arctic: - 480B in size - 10B + 128 x 3.66B Dense + MoE Hybrid - 2 active experts - Single GPU node inferencing w/ FP8 - Great in text-to-SQL Overall, I think this is mixed. Going into OS LLM is going to take more

Convequity

@convequity

2 months

Databricks latest DBRX 132B 16 experts 4 active experts (36B) MoE model looks good. Some notes: - Trained on 3k H100 in 2-3 mos with 12T token. - MMLU not demonstrating clear leadership considering its 132B size that takes ~2x memory vs. Mistral and LlaMA. - Coding

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Convequity

@convequity

6 months

$PANW is inching closer to become the first cybersecurity company to reach $100bn in market cap. We expected in back in Jun 20': "we expect PANW will become the first $100bn cybersecurity company sometime in the next few years" Short-term valuation aside, the beauty of this

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Convequity

@convequity

7 months

The race to becoming the 1st $100bn pure-play cybersecurity company. 1 year ago the market cap was close between $PANW, $FTNT, and $CRWD. The range from highest to lowest was only $12bn. Since then, PANW has widened the gap by almost 3x. Today's market caps are $74bn, $44bn,

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Convequity

@convequity

10 months

Tracking $NET Cloudflare's ER calls is a very weird one, but maybe also representative of many enterprise software companies in general. Two qtrs ago, they felt the headwind for 1H23, but they were very confident it was an one-off event so they guided the 2H23 expectation

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Convequity

@convequity

28 days

$AMZN chose to go with 8-figure $CRWD bundle for XDR, SIEM, ITDR, and Cloud security. The consolidation continues as Wiz and others are not considered, IMO not because of weaker product but just a lack of breadth. Interesting that $PANW isn't considered, possibly due to its

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Convequity

@convequity

3 months

What are the leading data platforms/competitors of $SNOW? Obviously, top 3 cloud vendors have their respective PaaS solutions. And then there is Databricks that is maturing its DW solution quickly & targeting on Snowflake directly. Quite interesting to see Starburst showing

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Convequity

@convequity

8 months

For many investors, it is very hard to understand why $DDOG was so successful in scaling up the company, and constantly trading at a high premium. I find Vercel CEO's comment on Datadog being a cloud 2.0 company w/ smooth onboarding experience to be quite compelling. Also, it

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Convequity

@convequity

10 months

$SNOW is working on FedRAMP Impact Level 5 (IL-5). This should help it grow within gov agencies, which is a small part of its revenue right now. According to $PLTR, there are only four SaaS in IL-5. If $SNOW is able to get the accreditation on time, this is another milestone.

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Convequity

@convequity

9 months

Tracking the tech stack used by innovative tech companies can help us understand who are the vendors on the rise. Here is the architecture of $MNDY : 1. $NET Cloudflare serves as the security proxy 2. $AMZN AWS handles all the subsequent processes

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Convequity

@convequity

8 months

Evaluating $FTNT's excellent LTM FCF margin of 40%. Let's break down FCF margin into gross margin, opex, capex, and changes in working capital. Gross margin FTNT has a good gross margin of ~76% that we expect will increase further thanks to its deep vertical integration. S&M

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Convequity

@convequity

2 years

The long/short report we're writing on $PLTR vs $AI is a real eye-opener. WARNING: stay away from $AI, I'm astonished of how many red flags there are.

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Convequity

@convequity

9 months

$CRWD shared more details on its emerging businesses this quarter. - CrowdStrike public cloud modules ARR is $296m up 70% YoY in 2Q24. - Identity protection ARR is 200m+ up 194% YoY. - LogScale ARR is close to 100m growing 200% YoY. - 64% new customers coming from partners. -

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Convequity

@convequity

2 months

Although I like $GTLB's tech & innovation, it does feel like that their ability to execute a BoB platform strategy is falling short of expectation. For instance, Gitlab has recently acquired Oxeye for SAST, while it has a similar product launched in 2017, but it can't incubate

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Convequity

@convequity

1 year

1/ $CRWD is making big strategic changes to fight back against $S in several fields we noted in Jul 2021. We've recently published an update on this, and here is a quick take: - XDR strategy - Marketing, pricing, and channel - Competition with $MSFT #Cybersecurity

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Convequity

@convequity

3 months

Wiz is raising $800m at $10bn+ valuation w/ $350m+ ARR. The growth in cloud security doesn't seem to slowdown anytime soon. The same to $CRWD $PANW $MSFT and others. Would be interesting to see $TENB's growth, after fully integrating Ermetic.

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Convequity

@convequity

2 years

$S shines again in endpoint security testing. $FTNT was also a top performer. In fact, only $S & $FTNT detected malware in all file types. $CRWD performed relatively poorly. This is more evidence that $S can work right out-the-box >>> great for growth outlook.

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Convequity

@convequity

1 month

NDI-FutureTech smart portfolio available on eToro. Sorted by Rule of X (inc. SBC).

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Convequity

@convequity

9 months

Arm IPO looks very unattractive. It seems Softbank is trying very hard to sell a lacklustre asset at premium prices, just like what it tried to do with WeWork in 2019. For a semiconductor IP company that has: - negative 3% rev growth, and best case LT low teens CAGR - 96% GM

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@convequity

11 months

Databricks just acquired MosaicML for $1.3bn, which is a hefty premium on its previous valuation of just $136m. Per the terms, founders of MosaicMLneed to stay within Databricks, partially justifying the price tag. This is understandable given that Databricks isn't good at DL

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Convequity

@convequity

1 year

This is the degenerate form of a short report, akin to what happened to $TSLA, which we've anticipated it to be since 2020. There is no outright fraud in $PLTR but misunderstanding by the layman. - A glorified consultant won't have an 80% gross margin. - A fake data company

Arny Trezzi

@arny_trezzi

1 year

$PLTR Bullets mentioned by @BearCaveEmail (+45k subs). “The company is a glorified consultant masquerading as an AI leader”. ↳ @PalantirTech AIP conference in 1h. Thanks @StockJabber for exposing why most short sellers get slaughtered 🙃

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@convequity

3 months

Some notes on $DBX, $CFLT, and $FSLY following their recent ERs. DBX $DBX has reached a rock bottom valuation since it plummeted ~30% following the 4Q23 results. It is hard to imagine it falling any further. Including DBX in a portfolio would be a nice diversifier as it is a

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Convequity

@convequity

1 year

$CRWD 1Q24 ER Overall good quarter with a slight guidance rise amid macro headwinds. Good: - GAAP profitability = index inclusion in the future - Platform expansion is truly impressive and better than $ZS. Agentless capabilities highlighted. - Low churn - Great rule of 40 even

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@convequity

10 months

Some interesting and perplexing charts from Morgan Stanley. 1. Cloud makes up a huge % of $AMZN and $MSFT EV, so they compete very fiercely. $GOOGL has a low % and it has always been, seems like $ORCL's momentum is even greater than GCP. 2. Azure will overtake AWS by 2027

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Convequity

@convequity

8 months

Cross-referencing business performance, valuation, and moats of stocks across cybersecurity, productivity, data, & observability. - Biz perf measured by Rule of 40 (adj. for SBC) - Valuation measured by EV/(FCF-SBC) multiple - Moat assessed subjectively (we welcome objections)

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@convequity

9 months

Google Cloud is pivoting to AI quickly, and it is eyeing gaining more mkt share via leveraging its years of R&D in AI. For building and running AI models, $GOOGL Vertex AI is seeing traction. It is built for full data control w/ zero data leakage. - $NVDA H100 powered A3

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Convequity

@convequity

10 months

$FTNT is building a networking cloud quietly. If executed well, it will allow its SD-WAN and SASE custs to deploy a $NET Cloudflare-like infra internally or by SPs. FTNT projects $350m CAPEX '23 while NET $141m. It spends more on land & building, but will catch up on servers too

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@convequity

2 months

Very impressed to see $AVGO is executing its operating efficiency and organic growth change on VMware so rapidly. It is doubling down on Cloud Foundation and leverage its high touch sales to land and expand a couple of few more customers. And these are very low-hanging fruits

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@convequity

3 months

$AVGO's execution on VMware synergy & value creation so far looks pretty good. It has been doing right things very fast. Take this one for instance, Broadcom is able to leverage its existing relationship with telcos to promote VMware RAN & private cloud solutions. And $AVGO

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@convequity

1 month

*Alert* We apologize to all of our followers that our Twitter account was compromised by crypto scammers. Please be aware that these tweets are not made by us, and our official website and other services are not compromised. Essentially, it is something similar happened to

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Convequity

@convequity

6 months

One great differentiator & moat for future AI & Data is data governance / semantic layer. $PLTR is a clear leader. Dbt sees it as a strategic initiative amid growth decay. But $SNOW is bringing it to broader custs. Looks promising. Also cost op. could be ST down but LT good.

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@convequity

1 year

1/ Every $ZS investor needs to be aware that Zscaler has tons of competition, and it doesn't have the best tech but great S&M. It is clear to us since 2020 that ZS will gradually lose its monopolistic status in the niche field. The following from $NET Cloudflare is very telling.

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@convequity

8 months

It is interesting to review Jim Chanos' short thesis on $DLR Digital Realty and colocation players more broadly, including $EQIX Equinix . Key points are: - Suspicious accounting of depreciation & CAPEX. The useful life of some parts like air conditioning isn't part of

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Convequity

@convequity

10 months

One advantage of $NET Cloudflare R2 is multi-cloud w/o egress fees. Lots of AI startups now are chasing over multiple cloud vendors bc to of the GPU shortage. This is the great fit w/ R2 bc they can store data on Cloudflare, and then bring it to wherever the GPU is available.

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@convequity

9 months

The design cost for leading-edge chips is skyrocketing. Cross-validation from Arm F-1 shows: - 2nm will be ~3x more expensive vs 7nm and ~8x vs 16nm. - 3nm will be 12x of 28nm. - 5nm is a major gap up in cost. Great for $CDNS & $SNPS for EDA but also $TSLA $AAPL $FTNT

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@convequity

6 months

$PANW Palo Alto Networks CEO Nikesh Arora shared some great insights in a recent interview. My summary: Bold Leadership Decisions: "It was a pretty unique board at Palo Alto which made the decision to go multiple standard deviations away from the norm." "Most boards are

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@convequity

6 months

$ZS Zscaler 1Q24 ER reversed the pre-ER melt-up with a ~10% gap down AH. Takeaways: - Overall the valuation looks fair but obviously not supportive of any further gap up. - Annualized QoQ rev at 42% - Everything beats & surprises but billing disappoints. - FCF margin at 45%

Convequity

@convequity

9 months

$ZS Zscaler 4Q23 Takeaways: Overall small incremental room to run but not an outrageously low valuation vs. in May. - Annualized QoQ ~39% - Next qtr guide very low at aQoQ 16% but should be able to deliver close to 480m+. - 121% DBNR - ZPA product revenue +57% YoY. - Data

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@convequity

11 months

It is interesting to watch how $SNOW vs. Databricks has evolved and in a search for differentiation, Databricks is coming to $PLTR's core domains. TLDR; Snowflake controls curated data (DW) and while Databricks controls unstructured data (DL) for ML/AI, it lacks governance,

theCUBE

@theCUBE

11 months

Bringing AI to the data 💻 This week's Breaking Analysis with #theCUBE 's @dvellante recaps @databricks and @SnowflakeDB 's recent conferences as the industry looks to bring #AItech closer to data where it lives. #technews #DataWeek #CIO #cloudcomputing

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@convequity

11 months

Microsoft is entering the network security business with its SSE product suite. Here is what you need to know: - The new products are under the newly created Microsoft Entra brand. - $MSFT core Identity product Azure AD is renamed as Entra ID. - Two new network security

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@convequity

5 months

Here is some analysis on Revenue Per Employee and (FCF-SBC) margin for 40 stocks including $AVGO, $MSFT, $ADBE, and $PANW. We like to look at rev/emp for unprofitable growthy stocks because it provides insights into the company's unit economics. The postulation is that a stock

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@convequity

11 months

There are a few landscape charts for cybersecurity worth viewing. However, they are not very useful for investors looking for investable opportunities in the present and/or in the near-future. Here is our attempt to help investors see which submarkets/technologies are worth

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@convequity

1 month

Interesting that $INTC's demo highlighted 1.5x perf/TCO advantage that their Gaudi 2 AI chip has over $NVDA H100. That's quite a small advantage given CUDA's ecosystem moat and ROI. Also, the new Blackwell will simply 2x perf/TCO. But still good given Gaudi 2 on 7nm

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@convequity

1 year

1/ Probably the biggest thesis to invest in cybersecurity is consolidation. $S, $PANW, $FTNT, $NET, $CRWD, $ZS and several startups can benefit from this. Here is why: - Market fragmentation - Rising demand for consolidation - Architectural evolution

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@convequity

8 months

Following on from the previous Revenue Per Employee analysis, here is some Gross Profit Per Employee analysis. Just like Rev/Emp, GP/Emp is a useful metric for growthy, GAAP unprofitable stocks. It offers an insight into a company's core unit economics and information about

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@convequity

5 months

$CRWD is aiming to expand its gross margin a few hundred bps even at its current scale - long-term non-GAAP GM target is 82-85%. In our Investor Guide on Terminal FCF Margin, in Part 1 we created a framework for forecasting terminal gross margin, where a company's future

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@convequity

1 year

Gartner's MQ for DevOps Platforms released a few days ago. Our take is that $GTLB's main advantage against $MSFT's GitHub is that the former is open-core, reaping the continued benefits of high velocity OSS contributions. Main advantages vs $TEAM's BitBucket are the public &

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@convequity

9 months

The prospect that $S mgt is seeing internally must be very bad that they are actively seeking for an exit while the cash reserve/burn is still at a healthy level. It could also potentially be driven by its institutional holders like Insight Partners, who need liquidation and

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@convequity

1 month

Confluent is using Apache Iceberg as the storage for its stream processing layer. This is a wise move, and it seems everyone is just going to consolidate into Iceberg as we've expected in Dec 22' $SNOW report Will be a challenging time for competitors like Hudi and Delta Lake

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@convequity

2 months

Databricks latest DBRX 132B 16 experts 4 active experts (36B) MoE model looks good. Some notes: - Trained on 3k H100 in 2-3 mos with 12T token. - MMLU not demonstrating clear leadership considering its 132B size that takes ~2x memory vs. Mistral and LlaMA. - Coding

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@convequity

1 year

1/ We are probably at the early part of the semiconductor down cycle. Here are our takes on key players' recent developments including $TSM, Samsung, $GFS, $KLAC, $LRCX, $AMAT, $INTC, $AMD, $NVDA, $QCOM - $TSM revenue was down 15% in March, the first time in 14 quarters.

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@convequity

29 days

$RBRK (Rubrik) We like to slice and dice cybersecurity in various ways to get a better understanding of the industry. Here is a simplified, high-level cybersecurity spectrum showing where $RBRK fits. The cybersecurity arsenal has traditionally focused on preventive and

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@convequity

7 months

$CFLT 3Q23 ER resulted in 42% intraday decline, but it's great to see $CFLT finally back to the normal valuation. Some thoughts: Macro headwind & cloud repatriation is real. One big customer repatriated from cloud to on-prem with open source Kafka, and many enterprise

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@convequity

1 year

This is the second S curve for $SNOW Snowflake. With data apps, it can dramatically create more demand for compute on Snowflake, effectively 10x+ its existing revenue. Furthermore, OLAP or data warehouse will be a revenue centre instead of a cost centre, further inducing more

SiliconANGLE

@SiliconANGLE

1 year

Snowflake Summit will reveal the future of data apps. Here’s our take.

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@convequity

3 months

I've been thinking why is $MNDY able to spend only 11% of revenue on SBC in the MRQ. This SBC % is way lower than peers, yet MNDY is still one of the most rapid SaaS innovators. IMO it largely comes down to MNDY dogfooding its WorkOS platform. And it just so happens that a

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@convequity

3 months

Although I think AWS will still be fine in coming years vs. consensus, the competition is heating up like never before. $ORCL is executing very well in legacy enterprises & budget cautious custs. $MSFT is leveraging AI to land $AMZN custs. And is eating AWS' bread-and-butter

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@convequity

1 year

$NET is a true day 1 company, defying the odds with over 1bn+ ARR, 12 years of experience, and a workforce of 3k+. It consistently leads the pack in embracing cutting-edge technologies, leaving its competitors trailing behind by 2-5 years. Take the ChatGPT Plugin Store, for

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