𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥 @ciphernom Twitter profile

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

4 years

The bull run is over when #Bitcoin corrects 90% down and hits 30k.

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

4 years

When i was new to #Bitcoin i was fooled into shitcoinary by scammers like John McAfee, Roger Ver, Richard Heart, Justin Sun, Vitalik Buterin and various other lowlife scum. If you are new to this, don't be fooled. There is only $BTC #Bitcoin . Everything else is some kind of scam.

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

4 years

Opinion: No one that bought the top in 2017 is going to sell at 20k now. They've had 3 years to learn about #Bitcoin . Basically an undergrad degree.

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

4 years

I just published S2FX — Phase 5 Estimations

S2FX — Phase 5 Estimations

Every idea needs a Medium

link.medium.com

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

5 years

I just published Falsifying the log growth model of Bitcoin value

Falsifying the log growth model of Bitcoin value

Every idea needs a Medium

link.medium.com

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

2 years

It's a scam (1/1).

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

5 years

I have had written a small post analysing @100trillionUSD 's stock-to-flow model. #btc $btc

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

2 years

You are waiting for a 15% discount on #bitcoin to try and make more fiat. I am buying #bitcoin every week regardless of the fiat exchange rate. We are not the same.

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

3 years

This is so obvious its hard to believe people don't see it. If this cycle continues to repeat, we are looking at like a 400k top.

Preston Pysh

@PrestonPysh

3 years

I think this is one of the most interesting finance charts in the world right now. #Bitcoin

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

3 years

The cycles are finished. The impact of the halvenings is litterally half each time. This time, we also have a nation, many large organisations and financial institutions. This time we have Segwit, lightning and taproot. This time, it IS different. #Bitcoin

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

5 years

Holy shit fed admitted bitcoin infinite value

Vis

@Vis_in_numeris

5 years

The Federal Reserve says there is an "INFINITE AMOUNT OF CASH" This is quite literally the reason bitcoin was created.

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

5 years

Ignore the drunk. Follow the road.

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

5 years

Ethereum is a shitcoin.

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

5 years

Writing a new article that goes further than ever before trying to prove #S2F wrong. Only problem - ends up improving statistical methodology and confirming #S2F has an important non-spurious affect on #bitcoin price.

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

2 years

My thoughts on ETH 🧵👇

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

4 years

I was the first to discover the cointegration between s2f and market cap. I incorrectly applied the test. I now believe conclusively the #s2f model for #Bitcoin is competely wrong.

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

4 years

Here is an #s2f update for #Bitcoin . Using the Prais model. if the model is correct, we are very unlikely to be below 9k in January.

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

5 years

Is #bitcoin bullish or bearish? According to the #s2f model, its about bang on where its meant to be. Look at the likelihood. The low likelihood points are becoming less frequent. bullish imo. Remember blue + low=undervalued. Red/orange + low=overvalued.

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

4 years

@100trillionUSD I used kmeans clustering and got a similar result

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

4 years

I am working on a more fundamental approach to forecasting value for #Bitcoin .

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

5 years

I compared basic regressions of log price ~ log time v log price ~ log sf using data prior to 2014 and full data. Stock to flow continues to be a *consistent* predictor. Times ability to predict, funnily enough changes with time. Stock to flow doesn't.

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

4 years

Think i should expand this. /The model is wrong/ (but so are all models). It's predictions should not be relied upon as an exact estimate. What the model *does do* is give us *some* evidence to show s2f is an important variable in understanding #Bitcoin value. @100trillionUSD

𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

4 years

I was the first to discover the cointegration between s2f and market cap. I incorrectly applied the test. I now believe conclusively the #s2f model for #Bitcoin is competely wrong.

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

4 years

@IMFNews If you are watching this and want to know more, the best place to start is a book called "The Bitcoin Standard".

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

4 years

If #s2f works for this #Bitcoin halving, prepare for all future halvings to be priced in.

𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

4 years

Using only first 10 days of price data available. Like clockwork.

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

3 years

Just discovered altcoin better than #Bitcoin : $sats Sats are permanently fixed to 1:100m ratio to BTC. At the moment 1 sat = $0.00043. It can easily kill 3 zeros. If dog coin can do it, so can sats! BTC can be swapped for sats in any wallet!

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

4 years

I just published #Bitcoin and USD Tether

Bitcoin and USD Tether

Does Tether Printing Cause Bitcoin Price Movement?

link.medium.com

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

4 years

All these ripple shills dont realise lightning makes their shitcoin irrelevant.

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

4 years

I have 1% of my net worth in fiat.

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

5 years

I just published a new article that tries to tie together supply and demand in modelling bitcoin price. .

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

4 years

#Bitcoin S2F model is fun, but basically wrong. After accounting for the autocorrelation in the residuals the coefficient for log s2f becomes almost zero (meaning: almost irrelevant). NB this is about the S2F model, not the S2FX model (....soon ;)....)

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

5 years

S2F analysis of @100trillionUSD gives us an estimated mean price for the next halving. It does NOT give us THE price at any point in that cycle. Do not be surprised if there is no immediate jump in price with the halving. Probably, there are bears counting on this.

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

5 years

For this, i calculated the vecm for each month and took the confidence intervals from the models. for the forecast part, i used the confidence interval from the last model. this last part is the interval given by exp(-2.443379)*sf^3.189581, exp(-2.443379)*sf^3.713882.

𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

5 years

@Geertjancap @digitalikNet here. I plotted the CI expansions for each VECM snapshot, and then used the last CI for the forecast range.

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

4 years

It is proving an extremely difficult exercise for me to not FOMO every cent i have into #Bitcoin right now.

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

5 years

the lower band is sitting at around 3k, and the upper at around 30k. I would hazard a guess that neither of these are particularly likely, but i can say with at least 90% certainty that the price will be between 3k and 30k until after the next halving. Not particularly useful ATM

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

4 years

#Bitcoin #s2f coefficient from ARDL info gives us a more conservative range than the OLS or VECMs.

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

3 years

@lexfridman @VitalikButerin Ask him how many eth there are

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

5 years

Not much time left now #btc #s2f

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

5 years

Just ticked over 4k followers. I don't know what to say - i hope i am providing you all with the content you expect. I will soon be launcing a website with all of my content as well. Thank you all (and special thanks to @BurgerCryptoAM & @100trillionUSD )

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

4 years

#Bitcoin has just been one non stop bull market. Prove me wrong.

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

5 years

most important variable in predicting eth price is not eth #s2f . nor is it #bitcoin price. it is #bitcoin #s2f that drives eth price. IMO this is proof that eth is a ponzi built on nothing but speculation from the value of #bitcoin

𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

5 years

Ethereum is a shitcoin.

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

4 years

ARDL forecast assuming ARDL results for lags. #Bitcoin #s2f

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

3 years

#bitcoin will 10x by 6 months.

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

4 years

So this is basically the way i've been thinking: Buy #Bitcoin . Dollar cost average in as much as I can afford to. Don't plan on selling it for at least 3 halvings (~12 years).

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

4 years

If you identify as a #Bitcoin Maximalist, own no shitcoins, are 100% allocated or above (ie shorting fiat with debt), I want to follow you.

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

4 years

Every day the world seems to get crazier and crazier and every day i become more and more thankful for the intervention that is #Bitcoin .

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

4 years

...we can be 90% confident that the #Bitcoin price will fall between $42,600 and $608,000, with a median expectation of around $161,000 one year from now, should volatility and drift remain as they have been for the past 4 years.

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

4 years

ive found that if we have the same *real* volatility and drift we encountered in the bull run for 2017, according to the GBM, we would see a 5th quantile of $85,773.5 and a 95th quantile of $514,659.7 with a median expectation of $210,774.6

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

5 years

same graph as before but only using data prior to 2016 halving

𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

5 years

@karimhelpme nope. Overfitting is a problem of complex models (i.e. models with more than 1 explanatory variable). Here is the same graph where I created a VECM for data up to July 2016. The CIs are wider because there is less data available at that point in time, but the gist is the same.

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

4 years

@100trillionUSD Ive tested many other variables: time, hashrate, tx, addresses, fees, and interactions. nothing has been as out of sample stable as s2f so far. I thought there would be some non linear combination of these that would but out of sample, s2f still wins (not to mention parsimony)

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

3 years

couldn't have said it any simpler. NO ONE can predict the price action I DONT CARE HOW NICE YOUR MODEL IS - its rerturns variance is undefined. What people can predict is that #Bitcoin will continue to rise in value. Thus the best course of action is, and always has been, to DCA.

ChartsBTC

@ChartsBtc

3 years

The sooner you start to DCA #bitcoin , the lower your average cost and the more sats you'll accumulate. #DCA & #HODL

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

4 years

The fact that apparently otherwise intelligent people do not understand that the sum of the parts cannot be greater than the whole is frankly disturbing. 21 million #Bitcoin . Divide it however you want. There is only 21m of them when all is said and done.

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

3 years

imagine thinking #Bitcoin was too slow for payments. lol

DevDaddy

@devdaddybtc

3 years

Customers have finally started using lightning #Bitcoin to buy #pizza and #beer . We’re using @SquarePOS and @OpenNodeCo for payments. It would be nice if they fully integrated.

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

4 years

I just published A quantitative estimation of Bitcoin price for 2021

A quantitative estimation of Bitcoin price for 2021

Using Monte-Carlo simulation and Geometric Brownian Motion

link.medium.com

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

4 years

@ecb Cantillon Effect: The first recipient of the new supply of money is in the convenient position of being able to spend extra dollars before prices have increased.

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

4 years

Simple log/log regression. Looks like #Bitcoin is going to break away from the log-log line soon tbh. This will ruin various time based models.

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

5 years

Engle-Granger test statistic over time now on the cointegration page at . Takes 30-60 seconds to calculate. #s2f #Bitcoin

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

4 years

#Bitcoin has ruined my post Christmas shopping. Now all i see is the sats i could get, not the crap that is for sale.

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

4 years

just verified the total supply of #Bitcoin on a raspberry pi "total_amount": 18469185.87854892

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

3 years

@zerohedge Proof of stake is literally a ponzi scheme

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

4 years

Fuck it. i bought some alts.

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

4 years

#Bitcoin valued in #gold

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

4 years

The #s2fx single variate simple linear model isn't wrong per se, but it's basically useless. I don't need to bet anything. I know this because i can calculate prediction intervals (the model says we can have 95% confident that the price will be between 83k to 1.48m for phase 5)

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

3 years

@signalapp Hilarious that you think being able to identify a user by their phone number using your platform is anything but Orwellian.

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

4 years

@KoroushAK This is like saying: why pay for a kilo of gold when i can go to the barn and collect a kilo of manure for free.

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

3 years

Someone tried to manipulate #Bitcoin . Anyone not holding spot with their own keys will be at risk of a future attempt imo. Dont trade, dont leverage. Buy spot, hold your keys. Its really that simple.

Willy Woo

@woonomic

3 years

Chinese miners went offline 3hrs into the difficulty adjustment. The difficulty adjusts every 2 weeks to match the natural increase in hash rate from miners. This keeps block times to a steady 10 mins. If you're going to slow the network down, this is the best window to do so.

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

5 years

#bitcoin #s2f residuals seem to be converging to #s2f estimate. Halving will be a good test. If it converges, we might be able to tighten up the prediction ranges (i.e. by including the residuals convergence in the model)

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

4 years

Fundamentally s2f is about perception leading to human action. In this sense, it's actually not really an econometric model at all. It's a sociological model. s2f is a long term view. The more we complicate that the less likely to see the forest from the trees.

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

4 years

@Frances_Coppola Agree. We should stop measuring in kms and instead measure in metres. This will increase the supply of land by 1000x.

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

4 years

I've been working on a a monte carlo method for #Bitcoin price estimation using geometric brownian motion. The estimate for 1 years time is between $7,763 and $38,534. I will write up an article on it at some point because there is some fun math involved. @remindmetweets 1 year.

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

4 years

@adam3us It might make sense just to get some in case it catches on.

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

3 years

PSA: S2F gave an estimate for #Bitcoin of 55k, 100k and 288k. 55k was wrong, 100k will be wrong and 288k will be wrong. THERE IS NO ROAD, ONLY ROCKET FUEL.

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

4 years

Agree

CryptoBoss

@CryptoBoss1984

4 years

$BTC we are in "Disbelief" stage of market cycle

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

4 years

#Bitcoin . Making nocoiners question their life choices since 2009.

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

4 years

@garyblack00 Maybe Elon is smarter than you. Just maybe.

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ��𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

4 years

Bankers not recommending #Bitcoin is a good thing. Fuck them. They can not be part of the new system.

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

3 years

Quitting alcohol. Any tips?

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

5 years

Every1: be careful. All models are wrong (inc #s2f ), some r useful. S2f model is useful because it tells us that scarcity has an important quantifiable impact on #Bitcoin value. Why that is (and exactly how it happens), we can only speculate at for now. Probably its very complex.

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

5 years

@awrigh01

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

4 years

@GeoffLewisOrg The person that DCAs into #Bitcoin and hodls for 10 years is not a person that sits around doing nothing and eating cheetos. It takes extraordinary power of will to not buy fiat at every btc ath.

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

4 years

@nope_its_lily Hold cash

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

2 months

@BitPaine @RichardHanania Amazing how much bots are saying this is fake.

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

4 years

Elon is not getting any of the #Bitcoin I own. Ever.

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

5 years

i calculate the OLS for each day (updating the model coefficients each day) since 26 Aug 2010, for both s2f and logtime. The residuals for the daily estimations of the s2f are stationary. The residuals for the time model are not.

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

5 years

@MikeG_AUS @100trillionUSD From "Bitcoin price is currently $340 under the stock to flow estimation. The likelihood of this occuring is about 0.44. Therefore according to the stock to flow model, the Bitcoin price is fair."

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

4 years

@ChonkyOne Can't make plans for the past unfortunately

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

4 years

I wonder if the next #Bitcoin halving is also priced in...

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

4 years

Either they break it, or #Bitcoin wins. Hint: they won't be able to break it.

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

4 years

@ki_young_ju Hows that working out for you

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

5 years

didnt think i could get more bullish but then a banker comes out and falsifies my belief 🤣 Ill take scarce secure decentralised #Bitcoin over any fiat shitcoin any day.

FTX App

@ftx_app

5 years

BREAKING: The Bank of England governor-designate, Andrew Bailey, says those holding bitcoin should "be prepared to lose all of your money" and "bitcoin has not caught on much" ok banker

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2K

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

5 years

I loved listening to @100trillionUSD and @APompliano .

Anthony Pompliano 🌪

@APompliano

5 years

New episode is live with @100trillionUSD ! He reveals that he is part of an investment team that manages approximately $100 billion, while also explaining how the stock-to-flow price model that he invented is getting more accurate over time. Enjoy!

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

4 years

@PeterSchiff How many times did gold rise above 10k this year?

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

4 years

More evidence: after controlling for any influence (either to or from) s&p500, difficulty adjustment, hashrate or address count and autocorrelation in the residuals (via prais), we can see s2f has a significant influence on price

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

4 years

get similar results for clustering and regression using alternative #S2F calculation (anticipated flow)

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

5 years

@Geertjancap @digitalikNet here. I plotted the CI expansions for each VECM snapshot, and then used the last CI for the forecast range.

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

4 years

I feel like if any of the ultra bullish models of #s2f are proven accurate, there may not be a bear market retrace after the estimated top at all and #Bitcoin will end up going straight to the millions range. *IF* they are proven accurate (and TBF i think its a long shot).

Adam Back

@adam3us

4 years

but "it is priced in" they cry. $13.5k and counting, still believe that S2F non-believers?

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

4 years

Imagine not holding #Bitcoin right now. Next few weeks are going to be very interesting.

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

4 years

I am working on a new article, in the process of writing it i have convinced myself that the top for this halving cycle will be around 144k. Article contains an indicator that might be usefull. I will post it probably on Friday night.

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

5 years

here is the price estimates using stock to flow residuals (5th to 95th quantiles of the residuals). 10k ~ 305k range for next halving. Code is here for anyone thats interested:

𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

5 years

@brenorb @100trillionUSD 10k-ish

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𐑯𐑦𐑒 ·𐑕𐑲𐑓𐑼𐑯𐑩𐑥

@ciphernom

5 years

#Bitcoin is fuck you money.

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