#Bitcoin
is at 4.7% world adoption, this is the same as Jan 1999 for Internet Adoption.
You are still early... and that's backed by the best data available.
426m
#Bitcoin
holders today.
0.5 billion by Oct.
- All past studies of user count visualised
- Early data via on-chain clustering by
@glassnode
- Then add KYC'd exchange users from Cambridge and Crypto·com studies, adjusting for BTC-only
- Then project growth rate forward
In terms of adoption, Bitcoin has roughly the same users as the Internet had in 1997.
But Bitcoin's growing faster. Next 4 years on current path will bring Bitcoin users to 1b people, that's the equivalent of 2005 for the Internet.
This month's shout out goes to China, for selflessly helping
#bitcoin
remove the last area of major centralisation in its network at her own loss, and the loss of her children and her children's children. 🙏
Elon asks the community whether DOGE (a proof of work coin, secured by energy) should be accepted by Tesla, and in the very next tweet announces Tesla is no longer accepting BTC due to energy reasons. Tell us what's really going on
@elonmusk
.
@hunterwalk
Fact check.
There are 84m families in the US. $100k per family is $8.4 trillion.
Total US student debt is $1.8 trillion.
His stake in Twitter was worth $2.9 billion before the market reacted.
#Bitcoin
took 6 months to get 1000 users; 5 years to find 1 million users.
Today, 13.8 years from inception, it has 300m+ users, 4% of the world.
At current growth rates, 1 billion users will be hit in the next 3 years. That's 12% of the world.
Wired $16k USD to pay a small bill. Receiving bank blocked it.
Wanted me to provide:
- a police report
- a resume
They say USD is a good medium of exchange, but this is a lie, it's terrible. USD has been weaponised via the banking system, it's now a medium of national defence.
What makes the last 8 consecutive days very special from an on-chain perspective is that EVERYONE is buying, from shrimps to whales. We've not seen a pattern like this looking back 10 years.
This month's shout out goes to China, for selflessly helping
#bitcoin
remove the last area of major centralisation in its network at her own loss, and the loss of her children and her children's children. 🙏
So you think we're in a bull market?
We're not, this has been the warm up. A full fundamentals driven bull market is marked by a break of the upper blue band.
When it breaks, TradFi is in for a shock.
It's okay
#Bitcoin
, don't feel lonely, here's some things that China also banned:
Movies about time travel
Alice in Wonderland
Brad Pitt
Gaming Consoles
Winnie the Pooh
Harrison Ford
The letter 'N'
Avatar 2D (3D was okay though)
Richard Gere
Jasmine flowers
Having a big family
1) wire money to myself
2) doesn't arrive after 2.5 weeks
3) call bank
4) "we couldn't find the correspondent bank"
5) request return of funds
6) "please come into a branch and sign a form"
7) pay a processing fee of $250
Are we in the dark ages? Banks are already obsolete.
President of El Salvador
@NayibBukele
has announced each registered citizen of their wallet app will receive $30 in free
#Bitcoin
“The wallet app will even work anywhere with a cell connection, and you won't have to have a cell plan for the app.”
@elonmusk
@BTC_Archive
Damage already done. The market was already soft and tentatively recovering when your unresearched FUD on energy came out. There's only so much that can be absorbed by the market.
23% of Americans own crypto-assets while 56% own stocks.
The former market is 12 years old while the latter is 203 years old.
This is a rising political force.
Chart: User growth on the BTC network.
No-coiners are taking this opportunity to buy the dip.
In case you're wondering, the bull market is very much intact.
Data:
@glassnode
The estimated user count seen on Bitcoin’s blockchain is growing faster now than any other time in its 12 year history.
Even during this dip? Yes, especially during this dip.
Bitcoin is digital gold?
Gold FAILED.
The Gold Standard failed. Gold's failure lead to fiat.
Why? It was centralised. When governments ran out of gold, money decoupled from gold and we got fiat.
Bitcoin is decentralised gold, it removes gold's failures.
"The Last Cycle"
What will be this bull cycle top? IMO there is no top.
PAST: *predictable walk* of demand/supply governed by a simple 4yr halvening.
NOW: *unpredictable walk* of demand/supply from a complex ecosystem until we hit saturation.
In a macro cycle context, long term investors are still climbing towards their peak accumulation, which marks bottoms. Early signs to me that the bull market may continue into 2022 and BTC is in the process of breaking free from the 4 year internal cycle from the halvenings.
#Bitcoin
price is sideways because of Wall St is selling futures contract in a macro risk-off trade. Meanwhile institutional money is scooping spot BTC at peak rates and moving to cold storage.
It's times like these I remember the Q4 2020 supply shock squeeze.
What’s my prediction for the top of this cycle?
Since I think this is the last cycle, the one that takes us to saturation, which if it wins, we can’t put a USD value on it because things get valued in BTC.
Thus the cycle top is easy to pick. It will be 1 BTC = 1 BTC.
Every time I take half of my working day to walk into a bank, or make 3 calls and wait weeks to get things done, I think “banking is like printed newspapers; the Internet is coming to eat you alive and you really don’t even know it yet.”
Money moving on Bitcoin's blockchain is back near all time highs.
It's presently doing ~$190k per second. Compare this to $130k per second by Visa for US customers and $55k per second for Mastercard.
Lightning Network not included.
It's very likely we are on the eve of a
#Bitcoin
spot ETF.
The first commodity ETF was SPDR Gold Trust. It provided a simple way for investors to access gold in their portfolio. When it launched gold went on to an 8 year rally with no single down year between 2005 - 2012.
China topped the world in power and technology, but by the 1400s they burned their ships and ceased interacting with the world. This lead to lost centuries of progress; only now climbing out of.
The Digital Age is here. China has walled the Internet and banned crypto. Deja vu?
Institutional sell-off to book in profits complete.
January sees capital redeployment.
Holiday season is now retail only.
Sophisticated traders building long positions on calendar futures.
Holders holding the line on-chain.
Happy Holiday season everyone.
We'll never see $20k BTC again.
$24k support would need a black swan event to breakdown.
Floor price supported by long term buyers is rising very fast.
Contour map of every bitcoin at the price they last changed hands between investors. Huge price validation between $50k-$60k.
#Bitcoin
as a $1T asset class IMO is now cemented; hard to see it dropping below this zone.
This data is
@glassnode
's URPD visualised.
We'll probably never see BTC going below $30k again if this on-chain pattern holds true... (8 for 8 so far)
What you see here is
#Bitcoin
's price discovery across 13 yrs. It's a contour map the BTC supply according to the price HODLers paid for their coins, and how it changed…
People often think the market is buying or selling. In truth every buyer has a seller. Price moves up or down according to who is patient and who is urgent.
Urgent sellers push price down, urgent buyers push price up.
Congrats to the Fed 🙌. New high score!!!
If you’re not getting 22% ROI on your investments in 2021, you’re going backwards.
Black: M2 monetary inflation
Red: CPI inflation
#marketupdate
, breaking it down, post mortem.
We just saw the single largest 1-day drop in mining hash rate since Nov 2017. The hash rate on the network essentially halved, causing mayhem in BTC price as it crashed.
9 more hours from daily close. If price holds these levels, RSI breakout will confirm. RSI leads price breaks with quite high reliability.
Meanwhile on-chain fundamentals: supply shock is in play and only getting stronger. A short squeeze setup.
Here's the projected worldwide Bitcoin users expressed in Internet years:
Internet 1997 = Bitcoin 2021
Internet 2005 = Bitcoin 2025
Internet 2010 = Bitcoin 2028
Here's how the Internet changed...
#Bitcoin
Twitter, apologies for the lack of tweets lately. Let me do a bulk tweet to tie us over for the rest of the year. Saves us both time as your feed has more or less been this everyday.
We are still early
Bitcoin fixes this
Stack sats
Few
PS. This will date well
BREAKING: HK
#Bitcoin
ETF launches tomorrow.
And here's a little secret from this part of the world...
The Asian market in user count is BIGGER than the US and European markets combined.
(2022 Huobi report)
Bitcoin approaching another region of notable price stability. Short term technicals are weak while on-chain, investors are in accumulation.
All the makings of a volatility squeeze. Breaking 50 likely a fast track to 60.
If you're looking for an entry to HODL Bitcoin long term, don't nickel and dime an entry. You're not going to sweat a few thousand dollars of non-perfect entry when it's $100k,$200k,$300k in a year.
The main bull phase is here. Capital inflows has gone nuts.
The Elon Dump now in recovery.
Net inflows to exchanges (selling), reversed into outflows (buying).
Some insider front-ran that tweet IMO.
Data:
@glassnode
Users on the Bitcoin network is now growing at its fastest rate ever.
1.2m users were added in the last 30 days.
Does not include off-chain users on exchanges which typically sees up to 3x this number.
1) Valuation of the banking sector: $7.3T
2) Valuation of inflation hedges (store of value assets): approx $500T
DeFi is competing for (1). Bitcoin is competing for (2).
Whales currently hold 24% of the supply.
Holdings as at 1st Jan of past years:
2021 - 27%
2020 - 27%
2019 - 29%
2018 - 32%
2017 - 39%
2016 - 44%
2015 - 46%
2014 - 48%
2013 - 52%
2012 - 54%
Excludes Satoshi's coins (assumed lost), exchanges, ETFs, and public companies.
The new
#Bitcoin
ETFs brings price targets of $91k at the bear market bottom and $650k at the bull market top once ETF investors have fully deployed according to asset manager recommendations***.
These are very conservative numbers.
#Bitcoin
will beat gold cap when ETFs have…
MicroStrategy, a smallish public company, backed
#Bitcoin
and now gets more engagement on its brand in public interviews than Microsoft (4th most capital company). Talent is easier to hire, sales are up because people know them.
The Bitcoin Effect.
Paraphrasing
@saylor
BTC at 71k puts us *here* in visual of the upper and lower bound models. Upper bound right now is 337k. So this bull market is still early, equivalent to 20k of last cycle.
Last cycle didn't hit the upper bound due to the flood of paper BTC, this is less dominant this cycle.
Fatality rates:
~29% : Black Plague (1350)
~6% : Spanish Flu (1918)
~3.3% : World War 2
~2% : World War 1
0.06% : COVID19
0.02% : Driving in the US (1960)
0.01% : Seasonal Flu
0.01% : Driving in the US (2019)
Looking at wallet flows, $54k is the strongest area of BTC price discovery by long term investors since $11k.
Typically, BTC forms a strong base of price discovery 2-3x above the (prior cycle) all-time-high before launching into bull market highs.
This phase is almost complete.
How to get rich in 2 simple steps:
1) have a very good understanding of risk
2) have solid self awareness of the risk you can emotionally stomach
Few people understand (1) and even fewer know what their tolerance to (2) is when the shit hits the fan.
Can somebody work out the carbon footprint of the USD petrodollar regime holding back renewable technology for 50 years?
Quit with the “
#Bitcoin
uses more energy than the use of electric cars” BS.
Full demand for
#Bitcoin
unleashed.
My banker, 33 yrs in wealth management, wasn’t bullish last year, but he changed his mind when the spot ETF approved. That’s because he knows how institutions sell investments to the wealthy.
BTC is now on the recommend list for everyone.
#BTC
down 10% immediately at the outbreak of the Iran - Israel war.
Pulling up this old chart I did at the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, also down 10%. Recovery happens within days.
Why does my Model S use 5% of its battery while being parked for 30hrs doing nothing. Will parked
@Tesla
cars be the biggest pointless waste of electricity soon?
2009-2020:
#Bitcoin
was the enemy of commercial and retail banking.
2021 onwards: Retail and Commercial Banks flip sides to provide BTC services. Central Banks become the competition with CBDCs.
10% of Bitcoin's money supply last moved at prices above $1T market cap.
This is strong validation of BTC as a trillion dollar asset bucket, a new asset class has arrived. 🐣
Since 1971 global money has been backed by stored energy in the form of oil.
With the advent of cost effective renewables, the petrodollar regime will end.
In this light
#Bitcoin
can be seen as a monetary transition. We are moving from stored energy as oil to electricity.
Chart: Weekly net flows to small holders (of less than 1 BTC).
It's retail that drive Bitcoin bull markets. When they stop buying, that's a bear market warning. They haven't stopped buying.
Last 30 days: Whales sold 4k BTC, plebs bought 31k BTC
Data provider:
@glassnode
Leverage markets sold off but investor buying just got stronger.
BTC flash crashes are caused by deleveraging, the COVID crash was similar in that derivatives overreacted, but back then it was supported by investors. This one was completely divergent and a mystery.
Cheap coins
PoW is the only known way to digitise real world value (energy) WITHOUT trusting someone.
PoS distributes wealth according to the founder's wish. Enough of a stake and you get to control the network.
I think PoS has its place for some applications, but never as hard money.
Translation:
The capital stored in the
#Bitcoin
network just broke an all-time-highs.
The network has more money in it today at $47k than it did at $64k in April.
Realised Cap estimates this by summing the price paid for every coin in BTC's circulating supply.
A short 8 year history of dips below NVT Price.
NVT Price estimates an organic valuation supported by long term investors (by using on-chain volume moving between them).