I've been investing in crypto for the last 6 years and angels frequently ask me how to evaluate projects. Here are the steps I generally recommend in running a diligence process for an early-stage crypto investment.
*disclaimer: these are my personal views*
Gas consumption tells many stories, from the rise of DEXs to the rotation of capital from DeFi to NFTs.
I coded up a viz to explore the top gas guzzlers on Ethereum with data from
@nansen_ai
.
Some insights below but even better, see what you can find!
Do anyone else’s parents still have no idea what they do? Huge thank you to
@forbes
for helping clear it up. And yes, my father signs every text message with "-Dad"
Meet the
#ForbesUnder30
Class of 2022: defying the odds amidst a global pandemic and supply chain breakdowns, these honorees are resilient and destined to change the world.
Wrote a bot this weekend to mint NFTs programmatically on Ethereum. Can assure you that using
#Flashbots
is the neatest way to go about it. 🤖
Huge thank you to
@epheph
for releasing an awesome tutorial walking through it step-by-step.
Wanna see it in action? Learn more? 👇
1/ For the past 3 years I've straddled the line between operating & investing–working as an eng at Google 9-5 and investor at BVP on nights/weekends. Throughout this balancing act, I was regularly asked how it all worked. Here's a post explaining:
1/ I have news! I’m thrilled to announce that I’ve joined
@paradigm
as an investment partner where I’ll focus on early stage crypto projects and companies.
tl;dr - Web3 early-stage investing demands new mental models and criteria compared to Web2. If you're an angel evaluating opportunities, feel free to use this checklist if helpful:
1/ Founder References
In the early stage, the most constant variable in the equation is often team. Find people you respect who know the founders and ask about their strengths, weaknesses, etc.
Ask yourself: Would I work with this person? If yes, that's bullish.
NFT traders share a common struggle: speed.
Enter
@blur_io
, the fastest exchange.
Oh, and it's live today.
Hats off to
@PacmanBlur
and the Blur team for shipping this insane product.
Blur is officially LIVE!
To celebrate our launch we’re airdropping Care Packages containing $BLUR tokens to everyone who’s stuck around in the bear market.
You have 14 days to claim ⏰
Computer programmer Garry Hamilton articulated five "Game Rules."
1. If the game is rigged so you can't win, find another game or invent your own.
2. If you're not winning because you don't know the rules, learn the rules.
NYC Friends: “Uh…I don’t get it…are you body language?”
Internet Friends: “YOU’RE A LANGUAGE MODEL!!”
The epitome of why I love the internet
h/t
@loewenkc
for costume idea
Reinforcement learning will cause neural net accuracy to skyrocket.
Pre-trained nets (e.g. Stable Diffusion, DALL-E) are operating in the same area code of accuracy rn.
What will be the next differentiator?
Whoever successfully integrates RL, so we can teach these models.
Big obvious gap of today’s AI:
They are *intelligence machines*, not *learning machines*.
Large language models are quite proficient, but do not continue learning, & require large industrial processes to get smarter.
They can mimic, but they do not truly progress like humans.
3/ Use The Product 🤯
If there’s a product, use it. While painfully obvious, this step is often skipped. It will crystallize the use case, value proposition and product offering. It's also nice for the founder to have investors who understand and use their product.
5/ Traction Analysis
In web2, company data is private. In web3, a lot of project data is on-chain and accessible through products like
@DuneAnalytics
. Utilize on-chain data. Look for growth rates of top KPIs (i.e. volume, TVL, wallets). Compare MoM or QoQ growth to competitors.
Last year I introduced two of my favorite friends --
@tcburning
and
@lstephanian
. The 3 of us went on to start an investing collective which we're finally announcing today. Welcome to !! If you are starting something new, DM us!
Did analysis for cryptocurrencies per
@fredwilson
's post.
Here's where marketcaps sit today:
1 = $1T+ (BTC)
1 = $100B+ (ETH)
19 = $10B+ (SOL/AVAX/USDT etc.)
103 = $1B+ (UNI/AXS/SC etc.)
# of >$1B entities that went live in ~last decade?
131 public tech co's
124 cryptocurrencies
there are 3 types of people looking to get hired at crypto startups:
1) crypto-native
2) crypto-pilled
3) crypto-curious
Look for 1s and 2s. A good 2 can learn incredibly fast and become a 1 in no time.
Beware of 3s. They rarely have enough drive + passion to go deep enough.
2/ Size the Opportunity
Think about market size today and theorize how big it could become. Be generous with your predictions because crypto is one of the fastest growing industries in the world. Familiarize yourself with memetics and the theory of reflexivity.
🔍 Crypto Punk Explorer: an intuitive interface that makes CryptoPunk shopping easier and more fun -- letting you search for punks by specific attributes. Made by
@caseykcaruso
Link:
4/ Customer Calls
Talk to users. Leverage
@discord
to do so quickly. Ask: How did you hear about the product? What were you using before? How does it compare to alternatives? How do you think about ROI & value? What would make you churn? NPS? Look for organic & durable usage.
Thesis: There are 3 reasons you like another human:
1) you like their UX (i.e. their personality, energy, mannerisms, communication style)
2) you spend your time similarly
3) you align on core values
1 and 2 can be observed within days
3 takes time
Five days since
@SkyMavisHQ
released
@Ronin_Network
's strategy and governance token:
- 4M wallet downloads
- 500K on-chain users
- Accounted for 15% of all 2021 NFT volume
Incredibly proud of this team for reaching a true milestone in crypto gaming for both developers and users.
If you're a dev and you're not using
@cursor_ai
yet, please from the bottom of my heart, take 10 minutes and try it. It gives us superpowers and accelerates creation.
I'm not an investor so have no incentive to say this.
Pulled first all-nighter in a while to get through all submissions. Amazing to see the caliber of engineer building on Blast.
Feel free to DM for potential investment or collab.
7/ Community Review
Understanding a community’s sentiment, quality and durability is crucial. Join the community’s
@discord
and
@telegram
to assess the quality of members. Use to decipher what % of Twitter followers are bots vs real humans. Humans > bots
6/ Ask "Why Now"
Many ideas in crypto have been tried before. Think about how many identity products we’ve seen. Timing is key. Try to figure out why past attempts have failed. Consider why now is different e.g. the rise of alt L1s and rotation of capital from DeFi to NFTs.
Today we're announcing
@paradigm
's investment in
@PraxisSociety
.
Cities are among civilization’s most important innovations. Just as crypto is rethinking our financial system from first principles, Praxis is daring to reimagine cities.
10/ Returns Analysis
According to
@MessariCrypto
, there are only 80 assets with a Y2050 marketcap (i.e. marketcap of asset accounting for known issuance until 2050) of > $1B. Make sure the math makes sense.
A short tale of returning a stolen NFT
Earlier this week, I bought a
@MiladyMaker
. Within minutes of revealing her on Twitter,
@Cryptonoura
brought to my attention that this Milady was stolen from their wallet, commencing the journey of getting Milady 9486 safely back home.
Bonus/ Be willing to skip steps 1 -> 10
Sometimes decisions need to be made faster than you’d like. Be willing to flex on the diligence process, recognizing there’s always more diligence that could be done. Be smart with your time and prioritize. Don't discount your intuition.
Three reasons you shouldn’t take that job at FAANG:
1) Any job available to you has already been offered internally and no one bit (i.e 100K+ ppl said nahhh to the job you’re about to take). Think about this.
2) crypto/web3 exists.
3) crypto/web3 exists.
Join the revolution.
8/ Tokens and Value Accrual
If there's a token, take time to understand the high level token mechanics. The key consideration is how the token will capture value. Assess lockups, issuance rate, release schedule, faucets & sinks, growth loops, memes, etc.
Happy to announce
@paradigm
's investment in
@rainfinancial
, a crucial piece of the puzzle for bringing the Middle East deeper into the new crypto economy.
Tracking downloads of npm packages over time is a powerful tool for spotting trends.
Open sourcing a simple, extensible script to pull daily downloads for any npm package over time as a csv 👇
It never stops to amaze me how well Akash works.
I just deployed Mistral 7B on an A100 owned by
@FoundryServices
from the Uber to my hotel.
Try calling it, I'll keep alive for a few hours:
curl -X POST -d '{"model":"mistral", "prompt":"Here is a story…
Nothing feels better than watching your friends move mountains and reach new heights. Huge congratulations to
@AriannaSimpson
for the promotion to GP at
@a16z
. We, as a space, are so lucky to have her.
good conversation on distributed pre-training, finetuning & inference, and ZK verifiability with
@nayr_oac
from
@ModulusLabs
and
@fenbielding
from
@gensynai
so much fun to moderate this panel; leaving more optimistic about this category
Bridging engineering and VC alongside
@lstephanian
and
@tcburning
has been a constant high. Huge callout to all our TLC founders for building the inevitable and thank you to
@DannyCrichton
for capturing the journey.
tis the season for annual reflections
reflections continue to be one of the most compounding and potent habits my friends and I share
suggested process? gather a group of 1-3 high-trust friends, individually answer questions for ~30 minutes, and then spend a couple of hours…
Best personal decision I made in 2021? Hire a teacher.
Here's a short thread on my logic and how it works, in case it speaks to you 🧵
Base assumption: There's a lot worth learning in this lifetime and little time. Time is the scarcest asset.
Psyched to announce
@paradigm
's investment in
@blur_io
, who is on a mission to build the premier NFT marketplace for pro traders. If you’re a pro NFT trader and want to get on the waitlist, DM’s are open.
9/ Competitive Landscaping
Figure out who the top competitors are and how this project is different. Think about their moat today and how that scales. If they aren't the market leader, develop a thesis on why they'll become the leader or why it's not a winner take all market.
Fireside chat with
@ilblackdragon
, co-author of the iconic deep learning paper: Attention Is All You Need and co-founder of
@NEARProtocol
.
Come talk with us about what Decentralized AI is, why it's interesting, and what's real vs vaporware
Live tweeting projects from
@HF0Residency
demo day!
What used to take teams of AI researchers and huge $$$ is now available through a few lines of code for every developer on earth.
Here’s what hackers at the forefront of AI are doing with that power.
(1/n)
Tech Stack:
>>
@AlchemyPlatform
or
@infura_io
to access nodes
>> ethers.js to interact with the chain
>>
#Flashbots
to create and submit transactions
Tutorial:
FakeArtMinter:
Like fellow robots, she spends her days processing, making meaning of the data around her.
Ironically unaware of her defining paradox: she's an electronic immersed in water.
In 2017, I painted this depiction of the human experience. Ty
@OpenAI
for this V2. Pls welcome her.
Keynoting NPC day at ETH Denver in an ~hr. Having a ball making these slides. It's gonna be so fun to present on AI. Come through. Will do live demos on mining TAO via
@TheBittensorHub
, being a compute provider on
@akashnet_
, contributing code to Morpheous + AGI Guild, etc.
tbh most of my motivation to learn the ropes as an engineer rn is just so i can build out my own ideas without depending on anyone else early in the creative process
Just started Ken Wilbur’s Eye to Eye. The book presents a model of consciousness that pulls in empirical, psychological and spiritual evidence. A mentor recently told me it’s his favorite framework for understanding the universe. Anyone want to read together?
JUST IN:
@SiaTechHQ
, the startup behind the Sia network for decentralized file storage, is doubling its staff and focusing on media streaming following a $3.5 million investment from
@BainCapital
and
@BessemerVP
. Report by
@La__Cuen
I’m on the hunt for excellent engineers for portfolio companies.
If you’re a talented engineer curious about what Web3 opportunities exist, dm me.
@paradigm
has a birds eye view of the space and we can help you land somewhere incredible✨
Paradigm’s first investment in Africa 🌍
Couldn't be more excited to partner with
@JamboTechnology
to help people on the continent access the potential of Web3.
1/ We here at Jambo are super excited to announce some important milestones today, including that we’ve raised a $30M Series A round, led by
@Paradigm
. 🦁🔥
Funding will allow us to accelerate Web3 adoption in Africa in a big way. Read more:
To the people who think VR is ngmi, my neighbors actually called to make sure everything was ok. I explained to them I was simply hunting for loot on a virtual roller coaster.
Want to know the most important people on Twitter who follow you?
Twitter doesn't show you this, and I couldn't find any good 3rd party tools (so I wrote it)
Here's a <40 line script to pull your Twitter followers, sorted by # of followers (if you have legacy API access)
Anti-hellscape. But, I believe on-chain data can be used for good.
I started coding as an anon when I was ~14. I got my first job b/c digital credentials (GitHub/Gitter).
I’ll never stop being optimistic about what privacy-focused on-chain creds will enable, esp for underdogs.
Building a deep learning model
@Stanford
with
@GautamPradeep8
and
@KowdeedRaguram
to see if venture capital is an art 🎨 or a science 📈. The question we're try to answer: Can we predict the success of an investment with nothing more than the original investment memo?
In the early 2000s, "cloud" was a popular descriptor for frontier startups.
Today, "cloud" is meaningless because it's become universal. Remote servers are the substrate of the web.
In 10 yrs, the same will be true of crypto and ML.
No company will be just a crypto company.
my gfs and I were waiting in line to get into Cabin in park city. I get impatient so offer the bouncer ETH or fiat to let us in. Bouncer says no. My friends insist fiat isn't a normal term. I go back & offer "dollars." $20 USD later & we are bouncin inside.
we are so early.
A bot is significantly faster because you're interacting directly with the chain and the process of selecting gas params is automated. You just read the mempool and iteratively re-set the gas price and gas limit so your transaction is included by miners. 🚀💥
My friends and I do monthly, quarterly, and annual reflections.
Opening up our 2022 yearly reflections for others to join.
Drop your email here:
We'll take 45 mins to write solo and then optionally share.
cc:
@mostlyvibing
@chiefnatasja
@loewenkc
Big day tmrw. I'm trying a tFUS (+ EEG) non-invasive brain computer interface.
The device uses EEG (electricity) to read and tFUS (ultrasound) to stimulate the brain. It's a big deal because no other consumer BCIs that I know of use tFUS yet. Most just use EEG which (in my…
Request for startup: AI-centric airdrop-as-a-service to make sure the right actors are rewarded
✅ AI sentiment analysis for active community participation
✅ Wallet analysis for fraud detection
Does this exist? Why not?
NFTs are arguably the first digital asset that capitalizes on signaling, a driving force behind human behavior.
Brillant essay written by
@julianlehr
on how crucial signaling is in decision making and how in 2020, pre-NFT boom, there was no true luxury software.
~ New essay ~
𝗦𝗶𝗴𝗻𝗮𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮𝘀 𝗮 𝗦𝗲𝗿𝘃𝗶𝗰𝗲
• Why there is no luxury software
• The reason why social networks are free to use
• How Tinder and Fortnite monetize signaling amplification
↓
For the skeptics who still don’t believe NFTs are going mainstream, the numbers have been crunched and 🥁 85% of 2021 OpenSea buyers created their wallets within this year. Meaning 85% of 2021 OpenSea buyers *may* be totally new to crypto.
The energy in Barcelona at the
@CeloOrg
conference is electric. It's incredible to be surrounded by builders who are dedicated to building a more prosperous world. Loved speaking on DataFi (thesis post soon™️) with
@anna_kazlauskas
, founder of
@usevana
.
Just built the coolest model which uses word vectors to automatically choose emojis. Such a fun way to learn about softmax, word vectors, GloVe representations, and one-hot vectors. Even with just 127 training examples, the accuracy Is pretty good for simple sentences!!
2/ I’ve deeply admired the platform that
@matthuang
and
@FEhrsam
have built over the years so when given the opportunity to focus my efforts and join them, it was a no brainer.
I end up having this conversation 2-3x a week so let the record show: my earnest opinion is to fall down the crypto rabbit hole now. Not after you get that extra line on the resume, not after that extra year of PM or engineering experience. Now.
hackathons feed the soul.
Had a ton of fun building with
@somudrog
earlier this summer.
Been thinking and hacking a lot on Epistemology x AI. If anyone else is building in this category, reach out.
Ty
@amasad
for building
@Replit
, a must use tool when going from 0 to 1
@Replit
🥇 1st Place: Dialectic, by
@somudrog
&
@caseykcaruso
Dialectic enhances communication by identifying logical fallacies in discussions & offering productive suggestions for disagreement.