I am deeply grateful and honoured to have been asked to give this year's Reith Lectures by the BBC. The title of the series is 'Our Democratic Future', which is no simple topic but I hope to do it justice. A v quick thread on details. 1/n
Just loving the UK right now, where the godfather of the Prime Minister’s son and the ex-partner of his wife are furious that the Leader of the Opposition might pressure a police force not to issue a penalty for having a curry because that might compel Prime Minister to resign.
Without wishing to be too critical, this is the author of the 2017 Conservative manifesto agreeing with the author of the 2019 Cons manifesto that the economy of the last decade has been a disaster for young people. If only they had been in a position to do something about it.
Who needs quadratic equations? A few people, for sure, but not as many as would benefit from learning about business and geopolitics from a very young age. Our education system is not fit for purpose …
It is deeply unconservative to say that only people earning above the 73rd percentile of the income distribution can live with who they love. A very very misguided policy.
I hope there are many on the right who will be opposed to this. It’s incredibly family-unfriendly and it’s particularly punishing to those outside London, minority communities and British citizens returning from abroad.
I recognise that Trussonomics is basically Ayn Rand read by somebody who just drank eight cans of Dr Pepper but I don’t understand why they think lowering the top rate of tax will attract global talent if they just end up cratering the pound.
We're poorer as a country. Someone has to take the hit. Is it going to be the same people who took the last two hits? Or do we share it about this time?
The head of the Office for Students, a man with zero previous experience in higher education, endorsing Victor Orban, a man who shut down one of Europe’s great universities, is I think the nadir of the government’s war on woke. It is frankly embarrassing and dismaying.
As a quantitative social scientist at
@NuffieldCollege
, I heartily oppose this very limited, pernicious argument. There is room in our world for many ways of thinking. And not every degree or job should be valued by its earnings potential. Oh, and FWIW I was a history grad.
POPULISM AGAINST LIBERALISM.
I swore I wouldn't. But then I figured, who wouldn't want a deep data dive into whether there's truly a 'new woke elite' with sharply different views to the British people? So I did at the 'forbidden place'. A thread. 1/n
Alternatively, populism is a term with a long legacy in academic work that John Gray has failed to read and that accurately describes a series of recent political movements that he sympathizes with in his decades-long personal war against liberalism.
“Populism is a term used by centrist liberals to describe political blowback from the disruption of society produced by their policies.” Oof, that is good by John Gray in the
@NewStatesman
🚨 Where are people social distancing in the UK?🚨 Thanks to the Google Community Reports we can see how people have behaved since March. Good news - social distancing is happening everywhere. Less good news - there is still a divide. And guess what explains it... BREXIT...😬 1/n
Completely embarrassing that our union would pluck a number like this from a non peer-reviewed working paper by a computer scientist. We are a profession that values expertise. The idea that universities opening could double the UK death rate is not something to raise lightly.
Steve Bannon today: “Ukraine’s not even a country. It’s kind of a concept. It’s not even a country .. It’s just a corrupt area that the Clinton’s turned into a colony where they can steal money out of.”
🚨The problems with democracy coding and bias 🚨 Political scientists among you will know about the Polity IV score. This has been until recently the preferred measure of democracy for many scholars. So why, you may ask, does it not like democracy in US or UK? 1/n
I think, regardless of one's position on Brexit, the fact that the government has (a) no idea if all non-EU trade deals will roll over, and (b) won't inform business which ones they have yet to sort out, ought to be considered an utter dereliction of duty.
💰💰WHY IS IT SO HARD TO TAX WEALTH? 💰💰
Wealth taxes are back in the news. Wealth inequality is sky high. But actually existing wealth taxes? Politicians struggle to introduce them. My new Substack explains why. Read on 1/n
📚🚨 NEW BOOK ALERT 🚨📚
I'm delighted that my book with Johannes Lindvall has just been published. Its title is "Inward Conquest: The Political Origins of Modern Public Services". Over the next weeks I'll set out why you should buy it! Let's begin... 1/n
On immigration and housing in the UK. A quick thread.
There has been a 'debate' over the last few days online about whether high levels of immigration are responsible for unaffordable housing in the UK. Albeit with rather little reference to data. Here's some... 1/n
This is interesting but I don’t think the markets are saying you can’t run deficits. They are saying you can’t run huge deficits that require politically unpopular tax cuts while firing the head of HMT, ignoring the OBR, refusing to acknowledge costs of Brexit and slamming BoE.
Smart voices on the left increasingly realising that the collapse of Trussonomics could really hurt them.
'Unfortunately, the conclusion most will take from the past weeks is a simple one: the government cannot borrow its way out of economic crises.'
Odd really given that Welby called the invasion of Ukraine an ‘act of great evil’. But I’m sure Boris had done his homework and didn’t just say this off the cuff.
Boris Johnson attacks the Archbishop of Canterbury, telling Conservative MPs that Welby was far less vociferous in his criticism of Putin than he was of the UK's refugee policy.
Right now, being the Professor of Comparative Democratic Institutions at the University of Oxford feels pretty ironic. Congregation denied the right to vote or have formal debate on
#USS
.
I’m a member of APSA council. I’m afraid to say this statement, which includes the unfortunate phrase ‘both sides should do better’ was not run by the Council and I certainly don’t approve of this kind of equivocal response. One side was responsible.
What I find particularly funny about the BBC’s pusillanimity is that every other sector is looking at the polls and basically slow-walking any Conservative policy they don’t like until election day 2024. But the Beeb have decided it’s December 2019.
The constant character assassination of anyone who has the temerity to disagree with the British tabloids is just poisonous stuff. ‘Enemies of the people’, ‘anti-Tory activist’ etc etc. We can get mad at social media but some newspapers have always been like this.
She's a thoughtful, knowledgeable and principled figure. So it's utterly unsurprising that she should be considered a threat to a government supporting newspaper.
🏘️🏘️WHO WANTS TO BUILD NEW HOUSES? 🏘️🏘️
My latest Substack post just launched. In it I look at way it's so hard to build houses in the UK, what the public want, and what politicians might do. And there's a brand-new constituency MRP! Read on... 1/n
Dep. Commissioner Daughtry says he found "a book on terrorism" at Columbia. (The book is not a how-to book, but a history written by a renowned British historian.)
“It is despicable to label migrants as ‘abusers’ of the system when everything they have done is legal under rules set by the government.”
@alanmanning4
💷💷💷 Rather than ramble aimlessly about today's 'mini-budget', I thought I would change tack and present a very fresh (i.e. finished yesterday) paper that has actual data on what the British public want tax rates to look like. To see, read on... 1/n
One incredible thing about Zelensky is his ability to adjust his message to his audience - Churchill for UK Parl, MLK for Congress, and now this for the Bundestag. All while making the same underlying case. Not pandering but persuading.
This snide and unapologetic response to the appalling motion passed by UCU says everything you need to know about the leadership capabilities of Jo Grady. Our sector deserves better.
UCU stands against every single war and for you to suggest otherwise is an absolute disgrace.
I didn’t agree with the motion that passed, and I know that neither do many UCU members.
But we won’t take lessons from you on this or any other matter.
It’s hard to imagine a more damaging story on the farrago that is UK visas for musicians than this one. The most egregious part is the rip off fee for emergency visas that didn’t even arrive in time. The Home Office is just dire.
The terrible truth of the Ukraine war is that it is precisely its simulated character, its hyper-reality, that makes it so bloody, writes
@thephilippics
.
New Substack post on how much trouble the Conservative Party are in, drawing on BES data back to the 1960s and on a survey I fielded two weeks ago. Answer lots. But they've adapted before. Can they do it again?
This is absolutely appalling. We simply CANNOT have a ‘world class university system’ if we deny permanent academics the possibility of having their small children join them. The Home Office…
Great to see
@JamesCleverly
taking tough, decisive action to slash net migration. The new higher income threshold will have a real impact, as will reducing family dependents. Cutting immigration closer to the 2019 target of 250k is foundational to recovering the Tories' fortunes.
I would suggest, given the graph below from a survey I ran a few weeks ago, that the fact that Conservatives are lagging massively in every group under sixty is probably not because of 'school indoctrination'.
“Complacent Conservative strategists who think today’s young people will magically return to the fold once they pay tax, get a mortgage or have a family are in for a rude awakening” - my latest
@Telegraph
“I found myself picking Mr Nash’s works out of my bookshelf at home...’’ Sure you did. Because being aware that Nash did not write books, you have made sure to keep copies of Econometrica and the Annals of Mathematics from the 1950s on your shelf.
🚨HOUSING AND POPULISM🚨 I'm delighted to announce that
@The_JOP
has published a FirstView version of our (me,
@fghjorth
,
@jacob_nyrup
,
@mvinaes
) paper 'Sheltering Populists'. A quick thread on our findings 1/n
I am absolutely fuming about this. How on earth are we supposed to attract top international faculty with this kind of behaviour from the Home Office? The idea that someone will take a job here and be forcibly separated from their children is insane.
🇬🇧🇪🇺 Who caused Hard Brexit? Some thoughts from the perspective of a social scientist. In the last few days we have seen an interminable debate on whether Remainers, Soft Brexiters, or Hard Brexiters are responsible for Hard Brexit. And it’s a false debate. Why? 1/n
As I read this, British citizens wishing to bring a spouse to the UK now require the same salary as a skilled migrant does to bring their own dependent. Which is an intriguing form of levelling that won't possibly backfire...
Many British citizens will be unable to live legally in the UK with their spouses. This is twice the national minimum wage. A lot of people simply cannot afford it, no matter how hard they work.
I spent yesterday being perturbed by the unsubstantiated allegation the civil service was antisemitic. Today I am perturbed by the odd phrase “talking about civil service wokeism” - who on earth is writing these press releases? Spiked?
Proper puzzled by this. I am pretty hot on antisemitism, especially institutionally, and this mystifies me.
I'm unaware of any serious - or for that matter unserious - accusation that the civil service culture is antisemitic.
How should we be thinking about the confusing array of UK General Election polls right now? As
@leonardocarella
pointed out the other day, it all depends on how votes split within Remain and Leave groupings. I've tried to model this a little more. Thread follows 1/n
So, the government has replaced Erasmus with a scheme with less reliability, less money, and less efficiency run by Capita, a firm with a track record of abject failure in government outsourcing projects. I recall some colleagues telling me, don't worry it'll be fine. Not so much
🌟WHY POLITICS FAILS LAUNCH DAY🌟
Delighted that Why Politics Fails is out today in the UK. I've written a Substack that sets out why I wrote the book and why I hope you all buy it! And for those who don't want to stop scrolling Twitter, a quick thread.
So
@apsrjournal
have written an interesting piece on what makes submitting there different to submitting to a 'subfield journal' such as, well,
@cps_journal
(which they mention). I have some thoughts as editor of aforementioned subfield journal...
Anyway, glad that my own political science career hasn’t led me to agitate for a policy that has led to 3/4 of British citizens not being able to marry who they love.
Ukraine crisis is quite clarifying about relative competence in Johnson's cabinet - Wallace, very impressive; Truss, erratic but broadly on right page; Patel, utterly dire.
Very excited to say that Why Politics Fails is coming out exactly four weeks today in the UK! Many thanks to Con Brown,
@MeadOlivia
and
@daniel_crewe
for sending along these early copies. If you’re intrigued please pre-order at !
Despite Brian’s good humour about it, the financial cost of the British visa and citizenship system is exorbitant and iniquitous. A scandal in my view.
In the last few months, I’ve had to pay £3,200 for a visa to stay in the UK, plus £1,720 for a citizenship application, taking my total in visa fees well above £15,000. What an absurd system.
Well, jokes on them, because I will be voting in the next general election.
I search in vain for a Quillette article on the exile of Central European University, an actual example of free speech under threat. Perhaps that might be a useful thing to examine along with safe spaces and trigger warnings.
On this topic, once again I must insist that Polity be more systematic in its coding. Is US suddenly less democratic than during the period during which a African Americans were disenfranchised (til 1965) or than it was DURING THE CIVIL WAR!!!
Political scientists have been measuring democracy around the world for decades.
Today, the Polity V score, one of the most common measures of democracy, downgraded the US as an Anocracy (not a democracy) and recorded an “attempted (presidential) coup"
Following up on
@jburnmurdoch
's excellent piece on generational political divides, my new Substack post does a deep dive into generational differences in British politics. 1/n
Incredibly proud of
@jacob_nyrup
and Stuart Bramwell, Oxford DPhil /
@NuffieldCollege
students who have just had their paper accepted by the APSR! It presents an important new dataset on every cabinet minister worldwide going back decades. More info here
🧑🎓MERITOCRACY IN THE NEWS👩🎓
@David_Goodhart
and Michael Sandel have both written provocative new books about the trouble with 'meritocracy'. Both argue that non-graduates have been undervalued and that graduates in non-graduate jobs are disillusioned. What do the data show? 🧵1/n
No. The UK voted to leave the EU.
That meant leaving the Single Market and putting an end to freedom of movement. The end.
Yes, there are issues with the Protocol, but
@trussliz
,
@BrandonLewis
&
@ConorBurnsUK
are working to deal with those issues.
Why are the Conservatives doubling down on small boats? Because that's what the voters they want to win back care about. And I'd expect continued 'greatest hits of social authoritarianism' policies. Quick thread with some data on attitudes among different types of voters. 1/n
So on the one hand there’s <gestures at everything>… all this.
But on the other hand I have a book coming out next year called Why Politics Fails.
🤷♂️
It’s good to see politicians finally taking this seriously but honestly the contours of this scandal have been clear for years and it’s mad it took an ITV dramatisation for Westminster to take proper notice.
Shame they didn’t introduce nightclub vaccine passports right away or we could have had two straight months of centrist dad Britpop, trance, and drum and bass nightclubs
Let's just look at how education works split by age. Here we have under fifties versus fifties and over. There's still a steep education gradient in the over fifties but among the young less so. The postgrad Lab result for under 50s was so high I had to change axis length... 4/n
I read John Gray making this argument when I was in my final year of undergraduate study. I am now old. He has been flogging this dead horse for a quarter of a century. Nice work if you can get it I guess.
Since Mr Timothy has noticed this arch tweet and taken offence I am certainly happy to note he proposed taxing wealth to fund elder care and to further note that this is hardly a policy that improves the economic headwinds facing young people. Leaving the single market OTOH.
As ever, I am slower than the news cycle but 2 weeks ago I ran a poll of 3500 people with YouGov as part of my
@ERC_Research
WEALTHPOL project (it landed on the final day of my funding... Oct 31). I have a vote intention question but I also have some cool housing questions. 🧵1/n
As an editor… I can tell you I never read cover letters. Don’t waste your time. We judge you on your manuscript not where you come from, or whatever argument you want to make in your cover letter. So if you write one, make it ‘here’s my paper; it’s all my own work’. Done.
As an editor, I can't tell you how many times I see cover letters where I just ... wonder?
The first impression is the most important one, and too many times - it's not the best impression.
How to write a compelling cover letter: a thread.
NB: These are my views and mine only!
Given Liz Truss’s interview with Steve Bannon and now Lee Anderson’s attack on the Mayor of London, we seem to have passed some kind of rubicon. Not the Foxification of the Conservative Party but the Newsmaxification.
There's more I won't get into. But dare I put it this way - it feels like APSR editors have written a list about how tough they are / how great their journal is not why it differs from subfield journals. And, I dunno, but that seems like selecting on the dependent variable.
Hugely excited that my paper on populism and housing with
@davidrkadler
is out and it's Open Access - so please do read it! The paper was funded by my ERC grant
@wealthpol
, so thanks
@ERC_Research
! So what's the take-home of the paper? 1/n
A lovely Christmas gift from
@public_affairs
and
@HachetteUS
- advance copies of the North American version of Why Politics Fails!
Available to preorder at
🎺So I have a little something to announce... 🎺
I'm delighted to be writing a new book for
@VikingBooks
@VikingBooksUK
. And this time for a wider audience. The book won't be coming out for sometime yet - it has to be finished! - but here's the gist 1/n
"In these divided and turbulent times, we need this book. The neat and deceptively simple structure of Why Politics Fails (following the five traps) is a great way in to a big topic",
@VikingBooks
pre-empts
@benwansell
's debut trade book:
Those British newspaper columnists opining that student protestors in the US are the ‘end of civilisation’ might wish to consider whether this kind of massive overreaction by the police is something they really endorse.
It is worth watching this CNN video from the moment Emory Econ Professor
@CarolineFohlin
came across the violent arrest of a protester on campus and asked the police, with shock, "What are you doing?" That's all that prompted an officer to hurl her to the ground and handcuff her.
What is the editorial process that leads someone to believe that you should put another episode of a soapy royal drama above Navalny's death on the front page of a newspaper?