Physician, researcher, advocate for notion that an ounce of data is worth a thousand pounds of opinion
Former White House COVID-19 Response Coordinator
Today, the 5 most vaccinated states (14M people) had
580 people in hospital, 12 deaths
In the 5 least vaccinated states (16M people)?
6,600 hospitalized, 104 deaths
Per capita , least vaccinated states have
10X hospitalizations and 7X deaths
So yeah, vaccines are working
India is in the throes of a horrendous COVID surge
Horrendous
They are struggling to get more people vaccinated
We are sitting on 35-40 million doses of Astra Zeneca vaccine Americans will never use
Can we please give or lend them to India? Like may be now?
It'll help. A lot
The world has administered 6 billion doses of COVID vaccines to 3.4 Billion people
For people waiting for more data before getting the shot
The data is in
We've vaccinated nearly half of all humanity
The vaccines are safe
There is a viral disease
Where most infections are mild, asymptomatic
With a very low fatality rate
And large age gradient: kids are even lower risk than adults
And less than 1% of kids have any serious complications at all
Yup
Polio
And we vaccinate against it
When folks think about highly vaccinated places in America
They think Vermont or CT or MA
Those places are good
But not the most vaccinated place in America
So who's
#1
?
Puerto Rico!
But PR has gotten way too little attention
Its worth reflecting on how they did it
Thread
Heard of SARS-CoV2 variant from Japan?
No?
How about one from South Korea?
No?
Surely variants from New Zealand & Vietnam?
Of course not
Because these places haven't given rise to scary variants
But what places have.....has big implications for ending the pandemic
Thread
Today, I'm thankful for the South African scientists
Who are working on the Nu variant with great expertise, speed, and transparency
Their openness makes the world safer
Thank you 🇿🇦
So a lot of chatter happening on the slow vaccine roll out
Personally, I'm incredibly frustrated.
Did we not know that vaccines were coming? Is vaccine administration a surprise?
Several complex issues so lets break things down a bit
Warning, this is a bit of a rant
Thread
Its time for vaccine mandate for air travel
Lack of one is becoming an issue
So here's my story from last night that confirmed why we need it
Basically, we can't expect mitigation measures to be enforced well enough to prevent transmission on airplanes forever
Short thread
For those of you keeping score at home
26 million Americans are known to have had COVID
420K of them died from COVID
29 million Americans have gotten COVID vaccines
0 have died from COVID vaccines
When it comes to generating immunity
vaccine > infection
Easier, way way safer
I often tweet about states struggling so now, a wonderful success story:
New York
Doing 67,000 tests a day
Finding 670 cases a day
1% test positivity
This is South Korea level. And its awesome
Transmission levels so low NY can, with proper precautions, open schools safely
Saturday evening thought
You know the two awesome vaccines that will tame the pandemic?
Pfizer's vaccine developed by two Turkish immigrants
Moderna's vaccine developed by a black woman virologist (
@KizzyPhD
)
@NIH
Another reason for diversity in STEM
It makes science better
I don't know. I migrated from India -- a "third-world" nation and didn't speak a word of English when I left
I feel like I've assimilated pretty well
Can't help but feel like
@LaurenWitzkeDE
may not fully understand what makes America great
Confused about the news on vaccines and delta?
Here's what we know
Vaccines prevent 75-85% of symptomatic infections
Vaccines prevent 90-98% of hospitalizations, deaths
Vaccines reduce transmission. By a lot. Don't know precisely how much -- but a lot
Can't ask for much more
Today was a very, very odd day
I testified before
@senatehomeland
They held a hearing on hydroxychloroquine.
Yup, HCQ
In the middle of the worst surge of pandemic
HCQ
It was clear how our information architecture shapes questions of science and medicine of COVID
A thread
India reports another 400,000+ cases, 4000+ death day
A sustained level of horribleness
And its not correct
True number surely closer to 25,000 deaths, 2-5 million infections today
Lots of ways to estimate but here's a simple one
Look at the crematoriums
Thread
Booster eligibility can still be confusing
So here's my guide to help you decide whether you should get a booster 6 months after your 2nd shot:
Are you an adult?
If yes, get a booster
My vaccinated parents got to see our kids this afternoon for the first time in 14 months.
Lots of hugs. Lots of joy.
Vaccines help us get our lives back
Is it possible
#OmicronVariant
sets us back to square one?
No
We have lots of tests that'll detect Omicron
We have therapies that'll work
Our vaccines MAY take a hit but will still provide some (may be a lot) protection
We are in a MUCH better place
This isn't March 2020
if you are vaccinated and boosted
Why should you care what others do?
Because we all need a functioning healthcare system
For the kid's appendicitis
Or friend's car accident
Or family member's cancer surgery
Vaccines keep hospitals from becoming dysfunctional during a surge
Recently saw patient for COVID round 2
Had COVID last spring with long hospital stay
Now admitted with reinfection. Unvaccinated
He couldn't believe he had COVID again
Had been told he had life-long immunity
The misinformation on infection-induced immunity is costing lives
So, as they say…
Some news
For all the progress we’ve made in this pandemic (and there is a lot)
We still have important work to do to protect Americans’ lives and well being
So when
@POTUS
asked me to serve, I was honored to have the opportunity
Vaccinated people are far far far less likely to spread the virus than unvaccinated people
Like way less likely
A lot less
Pretty clear from the data we have so far
That's my Friday thought
Was at dinner (outside) with kids last pm
Youngest says
"You're so boring on TV. You say same things over and over again"
Then mockingly
Wear a mask
Keep distance
Avoid indoor dining and bars
Testing testing testing
"Why do they even ask you to come back? So boring"
Fair
For those who don't want more good COVID news, please skip rest of this tweet
Still here?
OK
Sometime in past 24 hours, we surpassed 50% of humanity with at least 1 shot of a COVID vaccine
There are now more humans who've gotten a vaccine than humans who have not
Progress!
I'm left pondering a quote from
@barackobama
An idea any American, liberal or conservative, would understand
"If we do not have the capacity to distinguish what’s true from what’s false... the marketplace of ideas doesn’t work. And by definition our democracy doesn’t work"
Fin
Am often asked about different vaccines and their efficacy
Each trials tracks, reports efficacy differently
Currently, we have preliminary results for Novavax and J&J
But what numbers matter? What should you look for?
Here's one set of data to track. In a simple table
Want to end the pandemic?
Lets marshal global manufacturing effort to make lots of vaccine quickly
And vaccinate everyone
Because large outbreaks anywhere can give rise to variants that can escape vaccines everywhere
At the end of the day, we really are in this together
Fin
But vaccine mandates for air travel are
Canada has done it
We should too. Mandate vaccine or negative test for air travel
I understand the person next to me had the freedom not to be vaccinated
The old man next to her has the right to fly without getting infected
End
I know I sound like a broken record
But here's the thing
The vaccines are largely working as expected
We had an outbreak in P-town with lots of vaccinated folks infected
No one died. Very few got sick
And things have returned to normal
This is how vaccines work folks
The vaccines are working. Of the 900 cases related to the Provincetown cluster, there have been no deaths, 7 hospitalizations, and the symptoms are largely mild. Our positivity peaked at 15% on 7/15 and was only 4.8% yesterday. The outbreak is contained and Provincetown is safe.
I am not aware of any fully vaccinated person asymptomatically infecting another person
I'm not saying it never happens or will never happen
It might. But it has to be stunningly rare
And that is part of the reason why CDC changed its guidance today
Over past week, number of infections in U.S. has stopped declining
At about 50K infections every day
About where we were at height of summer surge
Why the stall?
Suspect B.1.1.7 is now starting to really have an effect
And states are opening up
This is a problem
Thread
In Israel, we're seeing an outbreak driven primarily by the unvaccinated
And spilling over into some vaccinated folks -- because no vaccine is 100%
These breakthrough infections are causing mild disease
What's happening in Israel is vaccines working exactly as we all expected
A lot of talk today about whether the 159 million fully vaccinated folks need a third shot
You know what would really help?
Ensuring the 25M who have 1 shot get their 2nd
And
Ensuring the 100M eligible who have zero shots get their first
That would help keep everyone safe
CDC's vaccine expert advisory committee voted
14 to 0
in favor of vaccinating all kids ages 5 to 11
These are our nation's leading physicians and scientists
Most are also parents
The vote was unanimous because the evidence is so clear
Kids 5 to 11 are better off vaccinated
What would ideal COVID Isolation guidance be?
Once rapid antigen tests are cheap & ubiquitous
1. Isolate for first 5 days
2. Then test daily
3. Negative X 2 days? End isolation. Good to go
4. Positive? Remain in isolation until 2 negs or 10 days
I think its that simple
Every few months, we hear about anew variant
Most turn out to not be much
Well, unfortunately, there's a new variant B.1.1.529 that is concerning
What do we know so far? A few things but not a lot
Reminder: when it comes to variants, we focus on three things
Short thread
It is absolutely possible to safely have in-person schools
But you can't just wing it
You need to
1. Vaccinate adults
2. Ventilate classrooms
3. Test folks weekly
4. Wear masks indoors
If adults acted responsibly
Kids could be safe in classrooms
Lets not fail our kids again
Worried about the Mu variant?
May be Lambda?
How about C.1.2? That sounds scary
Don't
While we are still learning, doubt they'll displace Delta
And our vaccines should hold up fine
I don't lose sleep over new variants
I worry about people's fatigue with the current one
So for the first time since December 2019,
I'm taking a week off of everything.
Disconnecting.
Thank you for getting vaccinated
And thus doing your part to bring this pandemic to an end.
And please stay safe.
First day on the new job.
It's rainy and foggy and I'm excited to get started.
Lots to do and I'm humbled by this opportunity to serve the American people.
More (including a new official handle) coming soon
At this moment, I want to reflect on the name Kamala
Kamala was the name of my beloved aunt, my mom's sister
Kamala is the name of one of my favorite Indian musicians
Kamala is the name of my next Vice President
For this kid from Bihar, a reminder of why I love America
We were stuck at 70K cases/day for a long time
In mid-April, cases started falling
It took 10 days to go from 70K to 60K
8 days later, we were at 50K/day
Its been 6 days and about to dip below 40K
Soon, we'll get to 30K
This is exponential decay
And its a good thing
This is what makes herd immunity advocates (remember Great Barrington Declaration?) so naive
They literally advocated for virus to have more chances to mutate
And what makes U.S. isolationist policies so naive
Because we live on one planet
And variants travel
8/9
Just stunning results
Pfizer's new oral therapy reduced hospitalizations by 90%
7 deaths in placebo group, 0 deaths in therapy group
Implications of effective therapeutics for ending the pandemic are very, very large
Happy Friday
For nearly 2 weeks, we've been stuck at 50K new cases daily
in that time, we've vaccinated an additional 20M Americans
So why flat?
Its a race between vaccinations and variants
And we're running even
Opening up too fast helps the variants
I want vaccinations to win
As of yesterday
There are more Americans who've gotten a vaccine shot than Americans who have not
50.1% of the entire population (including kids)
62% of adults
86% of seniors
And 7-day moving average for number of daily infections is about to drop below 20K
Progress
>1M people vaccinated
Less than have had 10 allergic reactions
So, <1 in 100K
Remember about 1 in 2,000 courses of penicillin leads to allergic reaction
1 in 200 folks have had anaphylaxis to meds at some point
Yes lets sort out cause of vaccine rxns
But perspective helpful
This is part of a dangerous trend in reporting each allergic reaction as news. A million people have been vaccinated. A few had allergic reactions. All turned out fine. More will occasionally happen. They don’t all need headlines. It inaccurately skews perception of risk.
There is only one solution to put this nightmare pandemic behind us
Get outbreaks under control everywhere
How?
Put in place virus control policies, get people to wear high quality masks, have more testing
AND
Vaccinate the world
Now
As quickly as possible
7/9
Hearing few school districts contemplating going virtual in January
Please don't
We can keep kids & teachers safe in schools
And if leaders close schools but leave bars open?
Means they care neither about kids nor COVID
Schools should be the last to close, first to open
There's an old saying in global health
You can ignore, fail to test for, or undercount whatever disease you want
But you can't ignore the dead
In India, the dead are telling us the disease is much worse than the official statistics
And we have to listen
Fin
Congress finally passed $ for vax distribution
States now building infrastructure. Should have been built by Feds months ago
After a slow ramp up, it'll get better
We're learning again we can't fight pandemic with every state on its own
An effective federal govt helps
Fin
Close family member just called to say he tested positive for COVID
He's 21, healthy, college senior, vaxxed
Feels OK. Sore throat, cough, can't smell
Called for advice
He'll be fine
Its his inept university and others like this one that worry me
Thread
3 key points for folks recently vaccinated with J&J
1. your risk of getting hit by lightning this year > your risk of developing blood clot from vaccine
2. Don't ignore a new severe headache, abd pain, or shortness of breath
3. Enjoy being vaccinated against a deadly disease
I'm pretty thrilled with
@potus
announcement today
COVID is killing 1500 Americans. Every. Day.
We have the tools to defeat COVID
1. Driving vaccinations
This is not about mandates
This is about creating safe work, hospitals, schools, houses of worship
Thread
Lot of folks outraged about vaccine mandates
I understand. No one likes mandates
I wish people felt the same outrage over 1,000 Americans dying every day from COVID
Most of whom are unvaccinated
If you are tired of this pandemic as I am
Please focus on ending it
CDC should have included a negative antigen tests to end isolation
They didn't
Now some are justifying that decision by throwing antigen tests under the bus
Please don't do that
The long term cost of that messaging will be immense
Antigen tests are great when used properly
In the 5 states with highest vaccination rates
Compared with 2 weeks ago
Infections down 40%
Test positivity 1.2%
In 5 states with lowest vaccination rates
Infections up 3.9%
Test positivity 8.4%
Vaccinations will increasingly become key to infection levels in a community
Letting virus run wild, like US, Brazil did, endangers everyone
Imagine this
Some nations are largely vaccinated
But outbreaks are surging elsewhere
What might happen? We might see rise of variants that eventually escape the vaccines
And make everyone vulnerable again
5/7
As Omicron cases explode
We need a strategy for isolating folks who test positive
We need to think about the purpose of isolation clearly
Because if we don't get it right,
It'll both be hugely disruptive and won't keep us safe
So let's discuss what we need to do
Thread
So next time someone tells you
Oh, only "wealthy" New England states can achieve high vaccination rates
Remind them that the super star in America is not VT or CT or MA or RI
Its Puerto Rico
Doing a fabulous job vaccinating its people to keep everyone safe
End
So bottom line?
Yeah, delta variant is bad. Like really bad
Our vaccines are good. Like really good
Breakthrough infections happen
Sometimes they may spread to others
But if enough people get the shot
The pandemic does come to an end
Fin
Israel had zero (really. Zero) deaths from COVID yesterday.
For the first time in a year.
Pandemics end when people get vaccinated.
Israel is Exhibit A
Israel - updated status:
💉 (graph)
🤧
* ZERO! (0) Covid deaths yesterday
First such day in >1yr!
* ~10 infections /M/d (100-fold drop)
* Hospital Covid wards closing
😷
Masks off in open areas
Schools fully open
Green passes (in high-risk indoor setting)
Vaccines work!
1/2
Confused about boosters?
Here's what CDC advisory committee should have done
3rd shot (6 months after 2nd) for following:
1. People >60 (that's the best data)
2. People 18-59 with chronic conditions
3. People with high exposure risk (HC workers, teachers, etc)
That's the list
Portugal now the global leader with 84% of population fully vaccinated
Canada? 71%
Cambodia 65%
US is 40th globally at 55%
Even Vermont, our most vaccinated state, would rank 15th in the world
US is falling further and further behind
We've got to get our act together folks
There appears to be no investment or plan in the last mile
No effort from Feds to help states launch a real vaccination infrastructure
Did the Feds not know vaccines were coming?
Shouldn't planning around vaccination sites, etc not have happened in October or November?
10/11
Today, we crossed 300 Million doses administered
Of which nearly 290 Million doses are mRNA vaccines (Moderna, Pfizer)
The safety profile of these vaccines is extraordinary
I can't think of anything else we've given nearly 300M doses of -- with so few untoward effects
An unvaccinated teacher infected 12 students
Who then infected 14 other kids, adults
Think being unvaccinated is about personal freedom?
Nonsense
Kids, adults in schools also have rights
Like not being unnecessarily infected
We need
#VaccineMandates
Infections are starting to rise
Hospitalizations are inching up
The holidays are approaching
The data is becoming increasingly clear
It is time for every adult 6 months out to get a booster
Given rapid Omicron spread
Should we be calling for outdoor masking?
No
I've seen no evidence that Omicron spreads efficiently outdoors
I'm wearing a high quality mask indoors in crowded public places
But not when I'm outside
Lets focus on where Omicron spreads
Indoors
So when you hear we have a pandemic of the unvaccinated
Yes that includes kids
But largely only in unvaccinated communities
Very few kids in highly vaccinated places are getting sick
So if you want to protect unvaccinated kids
Make sure everyone around them has the shot
Fin
With infections down more than 90% since highs just 6 weeks ago
It is tempting to decide the pandemic is over
It is not
During this upcoming lull of infections (and falling deaths),
It's time to prepare for whatever is next
So what to prepare for -- and how?
Thread
Concerned about the Delta variant?
Want to know how to protect yourself?
Here's my approach
1 Get yourself fully vaccinated
2 Hang out with other fully vaccinated people
3 For kids<12 who can't get the shot, make sure everyone around them vaccinated
Vaccines > Delta variant
UK, South Africa, Brazil –and possibly US (LA variant still being sorted out)
Each of these countries had large outbreaks even before their variants took off
So what are implications if we ever want to end this pandemic?
We have to bring pandemic under control everywhere
4/7
In a future where US is vaccinated but others are not
We could see rise of variants that can infect, cause outbreaks here and other vaccinated places
Requiring us to update our vaccines and vaccinate everyone again
It’s the nightmare scenario of a never-ending pandemic
6/7
Why talk Hydroxy when so many Americans are dying?
Because it was meant to push a narrative
That masks and distancing don’t matter
If you get infected – no big deal – take some HCQ
Its stunning
So let’s talk about where variants ARE coming from and under what circumstances
Variants arise when infections run wild
And selection pressures lead to dangerous mutations that can then thrive
Remember, every infection creates opportunities for “errors” – or mutations
2/6
Pediatricians overwhelmingly recommend that kids get vaccinated against COVID
Because the evidence is clear
Kids are better off vaccinated
That's why my three kids all got vaxxed
Ignore the noise
Listen to the doctors who care for children
I see Yankees "outbreak" as a success story
Despite high vaccine efficacy, we will see breakthrough infections
But only one person had symptoms. No one got sick
This is what protection looks like among the vaccinated
Occasional outbreaks. No severe illnesses. Life goes on
It feels to me like the federal government has thrown in the towel on this pandemic
Don't even appear to be trying anymore
They are doing little to protect nursing homes
The testing czar is gone. No replacement
We don't hear from the task force
The pandemic isn't over people
This Thanksgiving
I am grateful for
Vaccines that make it safe for families to get together
Healthcare workers still there 20 months into this brutal pandemic
And to everyone doing their part to keep the world healthy and safe and moving forward
#HappyThanksgiving
The CDC just designated Puerto Rico level 4 highest risk travel destination to avoid
I am perplexed
Infection rates in PR lower than 41 states
Vaccinations in PR higher than 47 states
If CDC recommends no travel to PR
should it recommend no travel within the rest of the US?
India's health system is on the verge of collapse
America can help.
My piece in
@washingtonpost
on how the world’s oldest democracy (the U.S.) can help the world's largest democracy (India).
It's time to act.
I just accidently lied on national television and have some explainin to do at home
Told
@DavidMuir
on
@ABCWorldNews
that I have a 12 year-old unvaccinated son that I'm expecting will be back in school.
Uh. This will be a surprise to both my *9-year old* son and my wife
Adjusted for population
Florida had 12X as many kids infected as Massachusetts last week
And Louisiana? About 10X
So what's going on?
None of these kids are vaccinated!
So why are infection rates so much lower in MA?
Right, because kids are protected by adults
4/5
Why should we care if some people choose not to be vaccinated?
Because for immunocompromised people among us
Their vaccines alone aren't enough
They rely on the rest of us
My getting vaccinated doesn't just protect me
It also protects the most vulnerable in my community
There's a group of pesky unvaccinated ruffians I want to discuss
You know -- no lottery tickets will get them vaccinated
They are recalcitrant
I have one of them in my house
Yes, the under 12
How best to protect them?
Empirical data can show us the way
Short thread
Now, we'll miss 20M deadline but might be able to get to 20M by sometime in early January
But this is really not the worst part
The worst part is no real planning on what happens when vaccines arrive in states
No plan, no money, just hope that states will figure this out
4/n
There are four tools to tame the pandemic
1. Vaccines
2. Rapid tests
3. Improving indoor air
4. Masks
If we deploy first 3 aggressively and smartly
We need only use 4th sparingly
And safely do essentially everything we value
We have all the tools we need to end this pandemic
Frustrating story but what are the lessons?
1. Hospitals need to use their extra doses to vaccinate people in their communities
2. Policies that bar non-employee vaccinations are bad, should be repealed
3. We need to collect, report more data on how vaccinations are going
Fin
Haven't voted yet?
Wondering if it's safe to vote in person?
Yes it is
Want to maximize safety?
Read sample ballot prior. Plan how you'll vote
Wear mask
Dress for outside weather
Distance in line, inside
Go in, fill out ballot, leave
Can be safer than grocery store trip
For an immigrant kid from Bihar who grew up poor, America is a pretty special place
While we must work harder to expand opportunities for more of us
Its a good day to celebrate
Happy Birthday America
And happy 4th of July everyone
More data today confirms vaccines terrific at preventing severe illness
Please get vaccinated & boosted
Science continues to deliver more vaccines, therapies
In 2022, let's ensure everyone in the world reaps its benefits
Signing off Twitter for a few days
Stay well stay safe
I have largely avoided using this platform to criticize individuals
I've made one exception: Scott Atlas
I know I've been harsh on him and here's why
Scott Atlas, as a physician, took an oath to do no harm
Thread (1 of 2)
The line when Mississippi health chief says its not state's job to ensure vaccines get into people's arms
What? Whose job is it?
Not the Feds. They just get vaccine to states
Not the states. They just get vaccine to hospitals, clinics
So its all on front line providers?
7/n
Lots of states mandate nursing home workers be vaccinated against influenza
But not against COVID
With many workers unvaccinated and delta surging, this is a huge risk
Why have we turned COVID vaccine mandates into a political issue when flu vax mandates were not?
Its crazy