Opting for an EV is choosing for a better future!
One often overlooked advantage of electric vehicles is their potential to disrupt funding sources for conflict, particularly in regions like the Middle East. By choosing an electric vehicle, you indirectly reduce the demand for…
I looked today at the new Tesla Model 3:
Key takeaways (not driven yet)
1. Looks much better than old M3, better in person in particular the front
2. Steering wheel looks, feels really high quality
3. Both front and rear seats look, feel much better. Seat perforation not only…
I think the attack on Tesla Berlin backfired for the perpetrators.
1. Public opinion 100% on Tesla‘s side. Everyone thinks this was a step way too far.
2. Police is guarding all important infrastructure around Tesla Berlin right now.
3. The government is expediting a new law for…
Something unbelievable just happened to me. Something I would not have thought possible.
I just parked a Tesla Model Y at a public charger, got immediately out of the car and was about to open the frunk lid to take out the charging cable as a woman jumped out of her VW ID4 (a…
🔥This analysis demonstrates that Porsche's new Taycan 4S (2024 model year) is hopelessly uncompetitive against Tesla's new Model 3 Performance.
@Tesla
@Porsche
▫️At over 2x the price of the Tesla, the Porsche has dramatically less range (-30.4%),
▫️Is significantly slower both…
🔥🔥🔥BREAKING: Toyota announced to have manipulated diesel engine testing and “temporarily suspend shipments of the affected engines.” This comes on the heels of Toyota admitting to have manipulated safety testing for certain models for over 30 years!
Globally, 10 models are…
Absent a major disaster I am calling it now: $140.16 was TSLA's low in 2024! This was April 22, 2024. I think Gary Black, Ross Gerber, and Gene Munster sold TSLA around that time. Cathie Wood was buying a lot! Remember this guys and gals!
$TSLA 🔥🔥🔥Although Tesla has only a 1.9% market share in terms of global vehicle sales (ICE+BEV), Tesla takes 6.8% of ALL cash 💰 👇🤯
This means we are seeing a situation unfolding similar to that of the smartphone world, where one company ($AAPL) pockets most of the cash…
This meme brilliantly encapsulates the tactics employed by Tesla's competitors: they hyperfocus on minor, inconsequential details while conveniently sidelining the crucial aspects of comparison.
The line below says: "Well, but we have better panel gaps!"
It's like Blackberry…
🔥BREAKING: BYD's 300,114 BEV sales for Q1 2024 imply that Tesla has yet again become the world's largest electric vehicle maker in a given quarter.
▫️BYD managed to outsell Tesla only ever in a single quarter (Q4'23).
▫️BYD's numbers rather low sales in Q1'24 may imply BYD's…
@SawyerMerritt
@theinformation
Sawyer/Omar, by sharing the 'theinformation''s article you put your seal of 'approval' on it and cause the article to
1) Receive a lot more attention
2) Receive more credence by your followers.
Sawyer, you probably have a lot more reach than 'theinformation' at this point, at…
🔥Tesla’s Cybertruck production rate will likely exceed Rivian‘s sometime in Q2‘24. I think it is clear now that the ramp appears much faster than the „18 months to get to 250k annually“-guidance Elon was providing in November. Perhaps we might even beat the „15 months“ which…
🔥🔥🔥NEWS: BYD became cash flow negative again in Q1 2024 losing $2,219 million in capital. Unlike Tesla's capital expenditure (capex), BYD's capex is down year-on-year and BYD wasn't spending $1.0 billion on a Nvidia compute cluster. Hence, BYD's Q1 cash burn is objectively…
🔥BREAKING: Tesla Berlin's power supply about to be restored!
Due to "exceptionally fast repair works and excellent cooperation amongst involved companies" Tesla Berlin's power supply might be back online in the evening today (Monday, evening local time).
Repairs are being…
Dear TSLA panic seller,
I wanted to take a moment to express my sincere gratitude for your recent selling of TSLA stock.
Your actions have unlocked a significant discount and made a significant impact on me and others, and I am genuinely appreciative of your kindness.
Your…
If you want to know how
@TroyTeslike
tricked the Tesla community for years and built a >100,000 follower-strong X presence with a massive Patreon revenue stream powered living, this post is for you.
In short: Troy’s ploy is based on comparing an up-to-date estimate with a stale…
Marques talks in this video about the VinFast VF8's "instant torque"-delay.
I noticed this in various other electric vehicles too.
For example, the top of the range NIO ET7 does the same.
Marques thinks they do this to make "people switching from a gas car feel more at home".…
🔥Dear Tesla community, I know it's fun to nerd out about all kinds of stuff but from a Tesla valuation perspective you're chasing rabbits.
Those rabbits include:
1. Whether Tesla delivers 400K or 450K vehicles in Q1 (distraction)
2. How fast 4680s ramp (distraction)
3. How…
🔥🔥🔥Tesla makes an estimated 22x per electric vehicle sold compared to BYD 🤯🤯🤯 ($3,001 vs $136)
Executive summary:
A meticulous analysis of BYD’s financials, contrasting with Tesla, reveals a substantial disparity in electric vehicle profitability. Unlike a simplistic…
Marques' videos got
5.7M views after 2 years (Rivian R1T)
8M views after 2 years (Ford F-150 Lightning)
5.9M views after 20 hrs (Tesla Cybertruck)
There was a 'small' increase in search interest (sarcasm)
🔥Tesla will be buying 50,000 additional Nvidia H100s by year-end 2024, increasing its current stock of H100s from 35,000 to 85,000.
1) 50,000 H100s have a market value (all-in cost) of approximately $2.0B.
In Germany and other European countries, Tesla put this on their website? If Cybertruck was unsellable in Europe due to regulation as many 'experts' claim, why would Tesla put the Cybertruck on their European websites?
These 'experts' always fail to state the specific regulation…
What really bugs me is that loads of people sheit all over Elon but Rivian’s RJ Scaringe and Lucid’s Peter Rawlinson together burned $30 billion.
Where are the RJ and Peter critics?
Nobody talks about it, especially not about RJ.
RJ burned $20 billion, outdoing Peter by 2x.…
My thoughts on TSLA dropping over 10% following the call. I think the stock is actually down almost 30%. Let me explain:
1. Anyone following global vehicle price developments could forecast with relatively high accuracy Tesla's numbers (as I had proven and others). NO SURPRISE…
🔥BREAKING: Tesla grew YTD +33.1% year-on-year in Europe!
▫️Numbers released by the European authority on vehicle sales (ACEA) show that Tesla vehicle sales grew to 37,217 (vs 27,954 prior year) YTD.
▫️In February (yoy), Tesla grew +15.2%
▫️Tesla's market share in February grew…
This analysis compares the cheapest Tesla with the cheapest electric BYD available in Germany.
Verdict: The BYD is just 10% cheaper but falls short by a significantly higher margin in all key performance metrics.
The BYD
▫️has 18% less range (93 km less),
▫️is less efficient…
There is a lot of 🐴💩 in circulation about Elon's rescinded comp package: it's not cancelled or voided, it is rescinded. The difference is that a rescission means Elon/Tesla can draw up a new 2018 comp package, ie start over on the comp package. In other words, Elon could still…
This analysis shows that roughly 30% of the F-150 Lightning vehicles ever manufactured are currently unsold.
Wholesale sales of the Ford F-150 Lightning have experienced a sharp decline, plummeting by 49% from their peak of 6,857 units in the fourth quarter of 2022 to 3,503…
🔥BREAKING: Tesla announced to launch the next gen "vehicles" (plural) ahead of schedule!
"We have updated our future vehicle line-up to accelerate the launch of new models ahead of our previously communicated start of production in the second half of 2025."
Autocar's assertion that the EQE outperforms the Plaid is baffling. The EQE falls short in every performance metric: it's less efficient, has a shorter range, slower acceleration but a higher price. To achieve the EQE's advertised 0-100kmh time of 3.5 seconds, Mercedes had to…
To Tesla shareholders: let's all be clear what is happening right now:
1. Tesla's multi months lackluster trading performance caused many investors to lose patience;
2. As stocks like Nvidia and others rocket higher, a huge sense of FOMO starts to settle in;
3. Impatience…
🔥🔥🔥The craziest thing on the call thus far from Elon: "FSD works just as well in other countries"
Everyone assumed it had to be retrained in every country but Elon explained only few modifications will be required. He explained it's like someone who learned to drive a car in…
Just wanted to remind everyone about this important chart after Rivian's new product unveil today and the key takeaways:
1. Rivian does not have a culture of treating cash as a scarce resource.
2. Rivian's CEO RJ was evidently never concerned with treating cash as a scarce…
Any investor in the EV space should look at this chart carefully: Rivian and Lucid have generated a shocking $19.0B and $8.9B in negative free cash flows since inception. 🤯
(updated for Rivian's and Lucid's results from yesterday)
🔥Tesla is going to let other automakers license FSD!
I think Chinese automakers and smaller automakers are the most likely early adopters. The larger incumbents will be likely last.
🔥I consider this post the most important post I have shared with the Tesla investor community thus far. The following is not trading advice. Use this information at your own discretion.
Key takeaways: This analysis demonstrates how Tesla (without robotaxis) is bound to return…
🔥Just in: Tesla China vehicle registrations came in at 10,800 which is a very strong number in the first week after Lunar New Year and significantly ahead of my 8,000 expectation.
▫️This implies Tesla is 12% (or 7K vehicles) ahead of the relevant comparable (which is is the…
A few close up shots from my interior review of the new Tesla Model 3:
1. Seat back cover has now material that much more closely resembles the front cover. This looks much higher quality vs old Model
2. The curvature created by the new LED light strip (not turned on in the…
🔥This is the most important chart to understand what is going on in the global automotive sector.
Why does it matter? It provides essential context for assessing the performance of a given automaker and represents a competitive 'pressure gauge' .
This chart shows free cash…
Here is why it made complete sense for Elon to slow Supercharger network expansion and let some of the team go.
1) Elon knows that Tesla is about to solve autonomy and the launch of a robotaxi (RT) ride hailing service (RRH) is around the corner (launch likely within 6-8…
Gary Black, who has one of the largest X accounts in the Tesla universe despite running a poorly performing and tiny fund, is knowingly or unknowingly misleading his over 400,000 followers again in the attached post. He blocked me, so I can only react to posts X users share with…
🔥Tesla Model Y Performance vs Porsche Macan 4 Electric.
Verdict: You really really have to have the badge to buy the Macan over the Model Y.
Due to lack of federal tax incentive eligibility, the Macan is an absurd 75% ($+34K) more expensive while significantly slower (4.9sec…
I spent quite some time on my Tesla financial projections model and just completed the revenue model.
Key takeaways: without any Uberbullish assumptions, you can see how Tesla can deliver in
▫️2024: 23% revenue growth largely driven by 3/Y and Cybertruck
▫️2025: 34% revenue…
What if the following happens this year?
1. Tesla keeps dropping FSD versions: v12.4, v12.5, v12.6, v12.7 and so on
2. Each in seemingly shorter and shorter succession (driven by increasing compute).
3. The broad beta tester universe (from East to West coast) in unsion report on…
This analysis shows that Tesla managed to increase profit per vehicle sold in Q4'23 despite further price cuts, driven by all-time low average production cost.
▫️Tesla's average selling price reduced to $43,469, a reduction of $1,090 (or -2.4%) quarter-on-quarter. (Exhibit 1)…
Tesla‘s Chief Designer Franz von Holzhausen recently said that Elon sends him ideas he saw on X. One idea Elon saw on X and commented on ("Good design") was this concept.
🔥Tesla is the global
#1
in terms of cash generation per vehicle sold in 2023!
This is the result of a review of all major automakers which have already provided cash flow disclosure for 2023.
Gary is clearly misleading his 400K followers in this post.
He presents himself as a genius investor for reducing his TSLA stake down to almost nothing.
All the while not mentioning any of the following creating enormous TSLA pressure.
Without the below, Gary would look…
Yesterday news broke that the largest automaker in the world (Toyota) had been faking for 30 years safety tests of various models and hatestream/mainstream media completely turns a blind eye on the topic. If it had been Tesla tampering with vehicle safety, hatestream media would…
If you wonder why Tesla is not using giga castings for the new Model 3, this post is for you.
1. Tesla spent a lot of money (likely hundreds of millions of dollars globally) setting up the lines for the Model 3 body assembly using non-giga casting (traditional) vehicle…
Gary is spreading nonsense again.
On 1: Rivian can't even sell its much higher priced ($94.1K) current line up profitably (cost is $137.5K).
On 2: Same nonsense. Tesla just barely crossed the $35K production cost with the Model Y and even Tesla needed to sell >1M vehicles to…
I can barely remember a time when the setup for TSLA was better:
1. Lack of attention
▫️Investors not paying attention as much as usual
▫️Nvidia/Bitcoin drawing attention away from TSLA
2. Inflation
▫️A bit of inflation stickiness creates investor hesitation (lots of money still…
Tesla just launched Enhanced Autopilot subscriptions in China❗️
This is big news since the Chinese market is almost as big as the North American market❗️for Tesla in terms on unit sales.
My account just crossed 10,000 followers, exactly two months after it crossed 5,000 on January 22.
I never expected that my research would attract much interest. Too many numbers, too few memes, too few dopamine kickers.
I had been producing the type of research I’ve been…
Does anyone still remember how much💩 Tesla got for the promised "$35,000 Tesla Model 3"?
As a quick refresher: when Tesla announced the Model 3 back in 2016, Tesla also announced an entry level price of $35,000. For various reasons it took Tesla a few years to deliver the M3 at…
🔥This is another one of Troy's silly posts pretending he got the definitive answer and shows his narrow minded thinking as well as lack of real world experience.
In business, there is something called 'management actions', ie. the management's ability to change circumstances.…
I think Tesla's success in Germany is not fully appreciated.
▫️Yesterday, MY was announced best selling SUV in February in Germany across all types of powertrains (gas, Diesel, hybrid, etc).
▫️The MY did this even though the MY's business buyer share is only 31.5%! (February)…
So the two girls,
@EmilyGlazer
and
@KirstenGrind
, who fabricated the story "Elon taking drugs" are now adding a second act after Elon blew their story by reporting that he was drug tested by NASA during the time Emily and Kirsten claimed he did.
So who is more credible: a NASA…
🔥🔥🔥Elon telling every employee to make sure every customer taking a test drive experiences FSD.
Great, thanks Elon. Because of you I have to adjust my FSD take rate assumptions in my model now.
I guess my fellow TSLA analysts will / should have to think about this one for…
This analysis compares the new Taycan GT with Weissach package - the Taycan's sportiest version - with the Tesla Model S Plaid.
Verdict: For significantly more than twice the money, Porsche buyers get a slower car in both acceleration and top speed.
I've been reviewing Tesla's global sales across all major markets and it doesn't look bad at all. I don't understand where all this pessimism comes from.
I haven't finished my analysis but I can already see that Tesla will substantially outperform in Q1'24 vs Q1'23 and will…
Nvidia EPS came in at $4.93. My estimate was off by just 0.4% at $4.95. Wallstreet consensus was off by 8.3% with $4.55 estimate. This makes me the most accurate Nvidia forecaster for Q4 2023!
I was also the most accurate Tesla forecaster for Q4 2023! I predicted exactly…
Big picture I think this is going on at Tesla
1. Elon took money earmarked for Mexico and bought more compute
2. Next gen vehicle with steering wheel is put on ice (forever?)
3. Focus is on perfecting FSD
4. Next gen vehicle development focused on pure robotaxis
5. This is both…
🔥🔥🔥Tesla has just revealed further price reductions for its Model Y and Model 3 lineup in the United States. This strategic move not only underscores Tesla's commitment to providing exceptional value to consumers but also intensifies the pressure on its competitors. This…
Tesla proved Reuters YET AGAIN completely wrong.
▫️Reuters erroneously told it's readers Tesla CT was battery constrained.
▫️Tesla just announced a 1k CT/weekly worth of batteries production rate implying (statically) 52K/annually.
▫️Since Tesla's 4680 battery production lines…
Tesla call just closed and I think this may have been the most exciting call thus far. Typically, earnings calls are rather boring since Elon doesn't want to disclose too much about upcoming products etc.
This call was a bit different. Even though we didn't learn details about…
Here is the problem of investing in Tesla and trying to time the right entry point.
1. As many investors right now (it appears), you might be thinking: “Na, TSLA won’t do much this year, better to invest in some other stocks right now and re-enter later”.
2. The risk of this…
Tesla delivered 386,810 vehicles in Q1 2024. This is significantly lower than what everyone expected, including yours truly at 423k.
What happened? I presume it was driven by an underestimation of the following;
1) Supply issues caused by Houtie attacks in Jan caused first…
BREAKING: TSLA is down pre-market over 3% due to a Reutes report about Tesla is trimming vehicle production in China.
▫️This was to be expect. Chinese market is extremely tough right now: too many competitors who fight for survival
▫️For this reason, this news shouldn't surprise…
Tesla’s FSD is getting boring. Before long, we all will be looking back with nostalgia and think about the time when FSD was fun.
FSD is now acing left and right hard traffic problems across the country. Boooring.
Do you remember the fun times? For example, when FSD couldn’t…
This analysis compares the top trim of Tesla’s new Model 3 vs BYD’s Seal as sold in Germany and demonstrates that the BYD is uncompetitive against the Model 3.
Verdict
▫️The BYD's low efficiency makes it uncompetitive as it affects range, weight, and price.
▫️As a result, at a…
🔥BREAKING: BWM lost a record high of $2,511M (negative free cash flow) in the fourth quarter of 2023 alone!
This represents the largest single-quarter negative free cash flow generation in 5 years!
Last time BMW burned in a single quarter through more cash was in Q4 2018 with…
Troy blocked me. I am not sure why but perhaps it’s because I beat him in both Tesla’s Q4 deliveries and Q4 EPS forecast (mine forecasts were more accurate) . I also beat him in Q3.
🔥NEWS: Toyota free cash flow was negative $4.9B in the fourth quarter of 2023.
Toyota, the world's largest automaker by number of vehicles sold (MCap $274B), disclosed today negative free cash flow (FCF) of $4.9B. FCF shows how much cash is left after the automaker paid for…
PLEASE READ BELOW
Gary Black masterfully deceives people in this post. Since Gary's thesis on Tesla is similar to Ross', Gary uses Ross as a thinly veiled avatar of himself or cleverly tries to pat himself on the back.
As is prototypically for Gary, Gary denies his vast…
I just had an unexpected cerebral moment. I took a short stroll outside, somewhere in a place in Europe, somewhere a bit in the middle of nowhere.
It was early morning, most people still sleeping. I could only hear a bit of bird chirping and a bit of growingly noise in the…
Let’s be clear what happened here: the vehicle‘s traction control algorithm failed! Either because of poor programming or a hardware malfunction.
>Good EVs will sense wheel slip and good software quickly adjusts torque via motor and/or highly targeted brake applications.
>All…
Seems those who have been given access to the
#Xiaomi
SU7 already are not the kind of people you should trust with your brand new motor. Yet another example of one being binned before deliveries even began has surfaced.
All EV startup IPOs - except Tesla's - were complete disasters for long term investors and we are about to repeat the same in the emerging robotics space.
Some investors are about to step into the robotics trap as they did into the EV trap: ALL EV startups (except Tesla) have…
🔥NEWS: Toyota announced to restructure its Daihatsu subsidiary which cheated in safety tests for 30 years (thirty years, this is not a typo).
This should be all over the news but mainstream media won’t cover this story since Toyota is globally one of the largest spenders on…
🎯100% true! If Tesla announced to "halt all vehicle shipments in a widening safety scandal" hatestream media would go into ABSOLUTE overdrive and this would be FRONT PAGE /
#1
news of every major traditional news outlet on the freaking planet (only not if global nuclear war…
🔥Elon just posted „Should be really shining bright by late April or early May.“
I want to spell out the obvious: By „shining bright“ I believe he is implying that by „late or early May“ the potential and/or capabilities of FSD will be glaringly obvious to everyone.…
🔥There seems to be a debate in some rather uninformed corners of X about comparing Rivian to Tesla. The following analysis makes irrefutably clear: Tesla and Rivian are two completely different companies.
This chart compares Tesla's and Rivian's auto gross margin since IPO.…
🔥If my calculations are correct, Tesla will be reporting very high China registrations tomorrow of about 20K over the last week!
Here is the rationale:
A) We know Tesla got 36.6K retail sales for February
B) We got already reported numbers for the first roughly 4 weeks of…
I got a lot of heat for calling out
@TroyTeslike
. I pointed out something which I believe is misleading. Below is a repetition of the same pattern: Troy takes his updated estimate 435,000 and compares it with 475,000 and states the date. For both, he states Feb 28 which is…
Pure play Chinese EV maker Xpeng's deliveries were down 63.7% in Q1 vs Q4 and 47.3% the prior year (Q4 to Q1 22).
I can keep posting those all day long 🤣. I quite like Tesla's Q1 delivery numbers looking at these other guys.
GM started recently shipping the new Chevy Blazer EV. This analysis compares the entry level 2LT AWD (2LT) with the Tesla Model Y Long Range (MY)
Compared to the MY, the 2LT costs over $8,000 more (+17%), offers 15% less range and 22% less cargo. To make matters worse, the 2LT…