NEWS: Rep. Ron Kind (D) will announce his retirement Tuesday from
#WI03
, a swing seat that Trump carried twice
This is a huge blow to Dems' chances of keeping their House majority
story TK w
@sarahnferris
@heatherscope
NEW:
@DCCC
is officially reversing its controversial "blacklist" on Tuesday, ending a blanket ban on consultants/firms who work with primary challengers of House Dem incumbents
This is a HUGE win for progressives, who have lobbied for it for 2 years
I see a lot of convos today about Marjorie Taylor Greene's past controversial comments, thanks to
@CNN
&
@mmfa
McCarthy told
@axios
he is disturbed/plans to speak with her
This narrative misses crucial context: NONE of this is new to political observers/GOP leaders. A thread >>
Some good news for Rep Liz Cheney (R): The WY legislature failed to pass a Donald Trump-backed bill restricting crossover voting on Tuesday
That means the
#WYAL
GOP primary on Aug 16 will remain open and Dems/Indys can easily vote for Cheney
Some Friday night news: Young Kim (R) ousts Rep Gil Cisneros (D) in
#CA39
, an Orange County-area seat that Hillary Clinton won by 9 points in 2016
This brings House Republicans to a net a gain of EIGHT seats and Kim is the 17th new GOP woman elected this cycle
BREAKING: Republican Young Kim wins election to U.S. House in California's 39th Congressional District, beating incumbent Rep. Gil Cisneros.
#APracecall
at 5:36 p.m. PST.
#Election2020
#CAelection
NEW: House Dems unveiled the message they plan to hammer throughout the 2022 cycle: The GOP is the party of QAnon
"They can do QAnon or they can do college-educated voters. They cannot do both" - DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney
w/
@sarahnferris
NEW:
@DCCC
makes moves to block primary challenges against Dem incumbents.
Per new hiring standards DCCC won't contract with or recommend to House campaign any political firm that works against a sitting member. That's a stark financial deterrent
More:
New: Rep Mondaire Jones (D) to me on SPMโs decision to run in
#NY17
โSean Patrick Maloney did not even give me a heads up before he went on Twitter to make that announcement. And I think that tells you everything you need know about Sean Patrick Maloneyโ
Assuming the map is finalized as-is, Jones would represent 3x as much of
#NY17
as Maloney. He's also vastly more progressive than SPM, one of the most centrist Dems in the House. Jones even had more cash on hand than Maloney as of 3/31! $2.9 mil vs. $2.1
NEW: How fast did Trump transform suburbia?
In FOUR YEARS
#GA06
went from an iconic GOP seat once held by Newt Gingrich to the priciest House special ever to safe Dem turf
Lucy McBATH is up double-digits in polls. NRCC has been dark on TV since mid-Oct
NEW: Rep Sean Patrick Maloney elected chair of the
@DCCC
for the 2022 cycle
He will be charged with protecting a razor-thin Democratic majority after redistricting and in Biden's first midterm
NEWS: freshman Dem Rep
@katieporteroc
raised over $2M in Q1 (!!) & has $4.5M on hand for her
#CA45
reelection
& in a perfect illustration of House GOP money woes... her Republican opponent raised just $112k & has only $151k on hand
Some Friday News: Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) has told Dems she will run for
#VAGOV
in 2025
That will ripple into the House majority fight. She & an aide told 2 people she does not plan to run for reelection in
#VA07
in 2024
w
@sarahnferris
Dem Rep Joe CUNNINGHAM of
#SC01
, which Trump won by 13 points, will vote yes on impeachment
โIf I wanted to do what was easy politically, I would just vote no and move onโ
Some Friday News: State Rep Gloria Johnson (D), one of the Tennessee Three who were rebuked for their gun violence protest, is prepping a
#TNSEN
bid
She's expected to launch an uphill campaign in mid-August against Sen Marsha Blackburn (R)
NEW: Dem Rep
@katieporteroc
raised $2.5M in Q2 (!!) and ended June with $6.6M in the bank for her
#CA45
reelection bid
This is her FIFTH consecutive quarter raising over $1M
Another BIG win for House Rs. Maria Elvira Salazar (R) ousts freshman Rep Donna Shalala (D) in
#FL27
Rs held this seat until 2018 but Hillary Clinton won it by 20 points in 2016 and Dems were not nervous here.
BREAKING: Republican Maria Elvira Salazar wins election to U.S. House in Florida's 27th Congressional District, beating incumbent Rep. Donna Shalala.
#APracecall
at 10:53 p.m. EST.
#Election2020
#FLelection
NEWS - Rep Matt Rosendale (R) is dropping out of
#MTSEN
"With Trump endorsing my opponent and the lack of resources, the hill was just too steep"
He has not decided if he will seek reelection in the House
w
@Olivia_Beavers
@burgessev
NEW:
@club4growth
poll shows trouble for Liz Cheney in
#WYAL
>> 52% of GOP primary voters would vote against her regardless of who challenges her in '22
>> 14% would back her regardless
>> Her favorables are underwater at 29/65
WPAi poll of 415 LVs from April 21-22, +/-4.9%
NEW: Another trove of uncovered Facebook posts by
#CA10
GOP nominee Ted Howze:
>> compares Dreamers to pedophiles
>> accuses Clintons of murder
>> claims Muslims cannot be good US citizens
He is still endorsed by the
@NRCC
&
@GOPLeader
Kevin McCarthy.
NEW: House Dems are clobbering Republicansโ chances at reclaiming the majority with an avalanche of $$$
42 most endangered Dems raised $28.5M in Q4, nearly twice as much as ALL of their 120+ GOP opponents
โThis is quite a wake-up call for Republicansโ
NEW: A
@club4growth
poll of
#WYAL
shows Rep Liz Cheney (R) down 30 points to the Trump-backed Harriet Hageman (R) in the Aug 16 primary
Hageman - 56%
Cheney - 26%
Bouchard - 12%
Undecided - 6%
WPAi poll of 400 LVs on May 24-25. Club is backing Hageman
New: GOP Rep Mike Turner of
#OH10
has spent $70K of campaign funds on some 370 meals since 2017 โ including at restaurants in London, Brussels & NYC
Ethics watchdogs say it raises concerns that donors are subsidizing his personal dining costs
Some fun Census stats on 2010-2020:
>> McKenzie County, North Dakota (!) was the fastest growing US county, up 131%
>> The Villages, FL was the fastest growing US metro area, up 39%
>> US population growth this decade was slower than any other this past century, save the 1930s
McCarthy expressed outrage, calling her words "appalling"
But to the dismay of MANY members/operatives he did nothing to block her ahead of her runoff vs surgeon John Cowan
GA Rs warned she would be the next Steve King, a disaster for the GOP in 2022
NEW:
@ninaturner
(D) raised $2.27M (!!) in the last 3.5 months for the
#OH11
special
She raised $4.5M since launching her bid w/ $1.3M last month alone. Her average contribution is $27 + 1 out of every 7 donors are recurring
Turner will face
@ShontelMBrown
in a Aug 3 primary
In an Aug interview, her opponent John Cowan warned an MTG victory could hurt Rs in the
#GASen
races & in
#GA06
+
#GA07
โ they lost all 4
His words: "I want to protect the Republican Party. She is the antithesis of the Republican Party. And she is not conservative โ sheโs crazyโ
Some NY news: Ex-Rep
@MaxRose4NY
(D) announces heโs leaving his post at the Dept of Defense as its Covid task force winds down
That leaves him free for a rematch against Rep
@NMalliotakis
(R) in a new
#NY11
which could get much better in redistrictingโฆ
Impeachment Whip Count: Almost half of the 30 Trump-District Democrats have publicly declared support for the articles.
@RepBenMcAdams
of
#UT04
just became the 14th.
Working list:
It's official: There are more registered Democrats than Republicans in Orange County for the first time since 1978, per
@OCRegistrar
data
547,458 Dems
547,369 Republicans
440,711 No Party Preference
New:
@AOC
weighs in on SPM's
#NY17
run, says its "terrible" & "hypocritical"
"It's also particularly shameful as a member of Dem leadership, especially as the leadership of the DCCC, who asks all of us to make sacrifices .. who cannot seem to take his redistricting on the chin"
NEW: Dems have gained redistricting power since 2010 BUT they've also ceded some of it to commissions/power shares (like in OR/CO/VA) & that could make it harder to keep the House
"We just don't seem to have the guts to go play politics the way Rs do"
On June 17 ( a week after the June 9
#GA14
primary but well before an Aug 11 runoff)
@MZanona
& I reported on a trove of her racist/Islamophobic/QAnon comments
MTG is a product of MAGA internet. She built a following posting hours of videos of this stuff
NEWS: Rep Vicente Gonzalez (D) signals he will likely vacate his swing seat to run in
#TX34
, the safe Dem seat of retiring Rep Filemon Vela
Gonzalez has $2M banked + Vela's support. But that leaves his
#TX15
(a Trump +3 seat) open/more ripe for GOP pickup
Some Senate news: Ex-Rep Abby Finkenauer (D) is readying an
#IASEN
run for Chuck Grassley's (R) seat
She's already started assembling a potential campaign staff, per 2 sources familiar. Grassley might retire in '22, leaving the seat open
w
@JamesArkin
News:
@CBCPAC
is endorsing
@ShontelMBrown
over
@ninaturner
in the
#OH11
special
This Aug 3 primary has quickly turned into a proxy war for feuding Dem factions >>
Brown is backed by Hillary + pro-Israel forces + CBC while Turner has Bernie + AOC + CPC
An indication of how the 2020 battle for the House is going >> Today DCCC is launching its 1st TV ad buys against:
Don Young in
#AKAL
(Trump +15)
Chip Roy in
#TX21
(+10)
Jim Hagedorn in
#MN01
(+15)
French Hill in
#AR02
(+11)
Lee Zeldin in
#NY01
(+12)
Amash's open seat
#MI03
(+9)
NEW: Dems are agonizing over just how aggressively to gerrymander Illinois
Hours after IL Dems unveiled a 14D-3R map, some national Dems floated a new 15D-2R map (uploaded by IL operative Zach Koutsky to the leg's public submission portal)
w
@ShiaKapos
NEW: Rep. Steve King is out of money, abandoned by longtime allies & going up against a coalition of major GOP power players in DC & Iowa from the Chamber to evangelical leaders to Terry Branstad
Next Tuesday heโll face his toughest
#IA04
reelection yet
A breakdown the 20 anti-Jordan House Rs: Only 10 hold seats that are/could be competitive
D'Esposito (Biden+15)
Lawler (Biden+10)
Chavez-DeRemer (Biden+9)
Bacon (Biden+6)
Kiggans (Biden+3)
LaLota (Biden+0)
James (Trump+1)
Garbarino (Trump+2)
Gimenez (Trump+6)
Gonzales (Trump+7)
NEW: Mark MEADOWS shock retirement has roiled local Rs who suspect he announced just before filing deadline to boost candidacy of his wife's friend
Among the evidence: Lynda Bennett's
#NC11
website was registered in Oct by the congressman's brother...
Among the worst MTG comments:
She called the '18 midterms โan Islamic invasion of our governmentโ
She said Dems are โtrying to keep the black people in a modern-day form of slaveryโ
โThe most mistreated group of people in the United States today are white males"
On Jan. 1, no one knew who
@mtgreenee
was.
Tonight, she's lead/off-lead story of WaPo, NYT, CNN, NBC.
She has consumed the political world, overtaking Trump's pending impeachment trial. Never mind covid relief.
W/
@mikedebonis
on lead vocals.
INBOX: Rep Max Rose (D) concedes in
#NY11
to Nicole Malliotakis (R)
That brings House Republicans to a net a gain of SEVEN seats and counting. Malliotakis is the 16th new GOP woman elected in 2020.
If this is true it's a big recruitment coup for House Dems
The DCCC has tried for years to get state Assemblyman Rudy Salas (D) to run. His assembly district includes much of the current
#CA21
(but not Fresno portion)
NEW: Campaign for
@JanzforCongress
, the Dem challenging
@RepDevinNunes
in
#CA22
, said it
raised $100K in 24 hours after leaked audio of Nunesโ Trump/Mueller comments.
NEW:
@GOPLeader
Kevin McCarthy has rescinded his endorsement of
#CA10
GOP nominee Ted Howze after reviewing derogatory social media posts from his accounts
NEW: House GOP leaders are condemning
#GA14
candidate Marjorie Greene after learning she made a host of racist comments
Among them:
>> Muslims don't belong in govt
>> Blacks are slaves to the Dem Party
>> Confederate statues should make blacks "proud"
NEW: Some House Ds are seething at the DCCC for meddling in the
#MI03
GOP primary to boost an election denier challenging Peter Meijer
โItโs unconscionable"
โItโs just damn wrongโ
โNo race is worth compromising your values in that way"
w
@sarahnferris
THREE new AP calls in Philly-area House races for:
1. Party-switcher Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R) in
#NJ02
2. Rep. Susan Wild (D) in
#PA07
3. Rep. Matt Cartwright (D) in
#PA08
Some interesting
#CA21
numbers: ex-Rep David Valadao (R) leads Rep TJ Cox (D) 56-34% in the jungle primary with 43% precincts reporting
This is a rural, majority-Latino district that Hillary Clinton won by 15 points!
New:
@DCCC
says it has
#NE02
polling showing Kara Eastman (D) leading Rep. Don Bacon (R) 48-47% AND Biden beating Trump 52-41%
Poll details: Live Caller + IVR, 448 LVs, May 7-10, +/- 4.6%
Trump won
#NE02
by 2 in 2016. Bacon beat Eastman by 2 in 2018
NEW: A recent GOP poll found a close race in the open
#CO07
, the open Ed Perlmutter seat that Biden won by 15 points (!) in 2020
Brittany Pettersen (D) - 44%
Erik Aadland (R) - 42%
Biden is underwater at 36/59 in survey done July 18-21 for
@CLFSuperPAC
NEW: Republicans have a 2024 problem โ their most controversial midterm losers might want to run again
Kari Lake. Blake Masters. Joe Kent. JR Majewski.
NRSC now plans to meddle in primaries to block them but NRCC will stay neutral
w
@marianne_levine
Union County Commissioner
@StonyRushing
, who just got an
#NC09
endorsement from
@MarkHarrisNC9
, is the owner of a gun range that offers firearm-safety courses.
He also maybe moonlights as Boss Hogg.
NEW: Biden's unpopularity is bringing deep blue seats into play for Rs, who are now eyeing turf the pres won by double digits
Some GOP polling:
#IN01
(Biden +9) his approval is -19
#PA07
(Biden +1) his approval is -32!
#NV01
(Biden +9) his approval is -14
Embattled
@RepMeehan
gets a new challenger & Dems might have a new front-runner in
#PA07
. Ex-CIA officer Shelly Chauncey is set to enter, possibly with support from major Dem donors
House Dems outraised Rs $125M to $85M in 2019, per NRCC's
@tomemmer
. That's a HUGE disparity
Past off-year fundraising, for context:
2011: DCCC beat NRCC by $7M
2013: DCCC beat NRCC by $15M
2015: NRCC beat DCCC by $1M
2017: DCCC beat NRCC by $20M
2019: DCCC beat NRCC by $40M
NEW:
@njhotline
crunched the Q3 numbers overnight. We found NINETY-ONE outraised GOP incumbents. And of that number, some 50 were outraised by at least a 2:1 margin โ if not more.
The (massive) working list:
Some personal news: I'm leaving
@njhotline
after 3+ great years but staying on the same beat!
I'm heading to
@POLITICO
next week to cover House races. So excited to join the team!
Some good news for House Ds: their candidates are drowning Rs in Q3 $$
>> Dems outraised Rs in 50/65 most competitive races (many by 2:1 margin) & Dems have more CoH in 45/65 races
>> 61 Dems raised $1M+ in Q3 compared to 34 Rs
w
@jsscppr
@allanjvestal
NEWS from
@liz_crampton
: Dem Rep
@collinpeterson
WILL run for reelection in
#MN07
, a seat Trump won by 31 points
This is huge for House Dems who almost certainly would not be able to hold the seat without him.
Some Friday House Dem TV triage >>
@HouseMajPAC
is cutting $2.2M in LA market โ a likely sign of no confidence in Christy Smith (D), who is challenging Rep Mike Garcia (R) in
#CA27
Biden won this seat by 13 points (!) & some in the CA delegation were pressuring Dems to spend
GOP megadonor Kathaleen Wall spent over $8 MILLION in the
#TX22
GOP runoff. Her opponent, Sheriff Troy Nehls, did not run a single TV ad.
Nehls leads Wall 72% to 28% with 48% reporting
NEW: a deep dive into the
#OK05
upset >>
How
@HornForCongress
ousted GOP
@RepRussell
in a 14-point Trump district with just 5 full-time staff & a budget so tight she had to go dark on TV for THREE weeks beginning in late September:
The suit alleges GOP mapmakers:
>> eliminated a Latino opportunity district in the redraw of
#TX23
(Tony Gonzales' West Texas seat)
>> did not draw a new Latino opportunity seat in Houston's Harris County
>> "surgically excised minority communities" from DFW Metroplex area
NEW internal Dem poll in
#MO02
shows Rep Ann WAGNER (R) & state Sen Jill Schupp (D) tied at 49% (w/ leaners)
Trump won this seat by 10 points in 2016. He trails Biden by 3 points, 49%-46%, in the survey, conducted by Normington Petts for
@HouseMajPAC
We've got our THIRD member-vs-member race of the 2022 cycle
Reps Lucy McBath (D) vs Carolyn Bourdeaux (D) in GA
Reps Sean Casten (D) vs Marie Newman (D) in IL
Reps David McKinley (R) vs Alex Mooney (R) in WV
Just in: U.S. Rep. Lucy McBath will run for Congress in a neighboring suburban district after Republicans redrew her congressional seat to be a GOP bastion.
#gapol
Then when we wrote again in August, McCarthy formally declared neutrality in the race, a stance that did not rally donors
Some anti-MTG Rs made a super PAC & cut an ad, waiting for an infusion of $$ that never came. Neither did a Trump tweet for her rival
New:
@GovChristie
, who co-chairs GOP redistricting efforts, slams his party for letting Ds win so many key state Supreme Court races in OH/NC/PA
"We allowed Barack Obama & Eric Holder to outmaneuver the Republican committees in those states & the RNC"
NEW internal
#OH11
poll suggests a tightening race
@ninaturner
(D) - 43%
@ShontelMBrown
(D) - 36%
w 14% undecided in 8/3 primary
Poll conducted by Normington Petts for Brown's campaign (July 6-8, 400 LVs, +/- 4.9%) Past internals had Brown down 30+
NEW:
@ShontelMBrown
raised $160K in the 24 hours after Majority Whip Jim Clyburn backed her in the
#OH11
special
Heโs also cut her a TV ad
The Aug 3 Dem primary pits Brown (backed by CBCers + Hillary) vs progressive
@ninaturner
(backed by Bernie + AOC)
A pretty good internal
#PA08
poll for Ds: Rep Matt Cartwright (D) leads Jim Bognet (R) by 6 points, 52-46%
>> Trump won this seat by 3 points in 2020 but Cartwright has had airwaves mostly to himself since July
>> Generic ballot is 49D to 48R
NEW: Oregon House Rs are NOT denying quorum needed to pass a Dem-leaning congressional map before tonight's deadline, ending a bitter partisan standoff
That means they are essentially agreeing to the compromise map from Saturday (4D-1R and 1 Dem-leaning/competitive seat)
A SIGN of how fast the suburbs are moving away from Republicans: An internal
#VA10
poll conducted for
@RepWexton
(D) found her leading Aliscia Andrews (R) 58%-36%
ROMNEY won this district by 2 points in 2012. Clinton won by 10 points in 2016. Biden is up 21 points in this survey
NEW: A warning sign for Ds in the June 14
#TX34
special >> Mayra Flores (R) is up 5 points on Dan Sanchez (D) in a new GOP poll
But that race is on the old map (Biden +4). To win in Nov, Flores will have to beat Rep Vicente Gonzalez (D) in a Biden +16
New (in some non-virus news): massive Super Tuesday primary turnout has Dems extra bullish about flipping House seats in the Texas burbs
2020 turnout increased roughly 100% from 2016 in six Democratic targets:
#TX02
#TX10
#TX21
#TX22
#TX24
#TX31
New: Indiana Rs are out with a House map proposal. Still a 7R-2D split
#IN05
get safer for Rs by ceding its piece of Marion County (home to Indy). Good news for incumbent Rep Victoria Spartz (R)
#IN01
is not cracked/looks mostly intact, which is good for Rep Frank Mrvan (D)
An amazing lede in this
@WSJ
story on how rapidly diversifying suburbs could haunt the GOP in redistricting
In 2011 Rep Lynn Westmoreland warned GA legislators it could be hard to keep
#GA06
&
#GA07
red for the whole decade... by 2021 Dems hold both
New in Score:
@ninaturner
(D) has hit $3M raised since launching a bid in December for the
#OH11
special
Turner was a co-chair of Bernie Sanders' 2020 bid & the Aug 3 primary is the next best chance for progressives/the Squad to grow their ranks
.
@njhotline
crunched the Q2 fundraising stats overnight. We found FIFTY-FOUR GOP incumbents who were outraised by a Democratic challenger. Thatโs a high for the 2018 cycle.
The full list:
New:
@NRCC
adds 13 new Dem-held seats to its offensive target list after a night of GOP victories in VA
The 70-seat list now includes: GK Butterfield in NC
Frank Mrvan in IN
Jennifer Wexton in VA
Jim Cooper in TN
More:
NEW: Ex-Rep Katie Hillโs new PAC is dropping $200K into the
#CA25
special to fill her old seat
She cut a direct-to-camera TV ad urging voters to mail in ballots
"I do not want my legacy to be flipping a seat, and then having it immediately flip backโ
Iowa Gov
@KimReynoldsIA
(R) WON'T endorse Rep
@SteveKingIA
in 2020
#IA04
primary. In 2018 he beat his Dem opponent by 3 points in a seat Trump won by 27.
"The last election was a wake-up call for it to be that close ... I will stay out of the primary."
#ME02
News: The House-GOP aligned
@CLFSuperPAC
is slashing its TV buy against Dem Rep. Jared Golden, a sign of no confidence in GOP nominee Dale Crafts
NRCC is already off air and CLF is cutting $450K from 10/14 to 10/20. Trump won this rural seat by 10 points in 2016