Adam Kucharski @adamjkucharski Twitter profile

Last Seen Profiles

@ZSNeal54

@denverfps_

@alwaleedalradhi

@SVTDK_18

@alunschool

@dqshtokyo

@MistyInRootsUK

@TransPantyBulge

@Flairkel

@subtravmo

@imcahngkyun

@enunomaduro

@KlangPlang46924

@_Yare_Yare_Daze

@ThwachChay95742

@act_actb

@MountainMan185

@PlsListen2Truth

@carbamato

@TheSafeAnnaAnon

@cecepedia

@brainious

@coco_kitsune

@hazardost

@supermotocross

@nikocoliterus

@roninkir

@V281lZ31TfpZ547

@AnnTriccs

@ZTXofficial

@thegrimm84

@mybkr

@bokuranoijyu

@Over_ST1

@BuenosRelatos

@ReportforJmn

Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

3 years

Why a SARS-CoV-2 variant that's 50% more transmissible would in general be a much bigger problem than a variant that's 50% more deadly. A short thread... 1/

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

4 years

I am deeply uncomfortable with the message that UK is actively pursuing ‘herd immunity’ as the main COVID-19 strategy. Our group’s scenario modelling has focused on reducing two main things: peak healthcare demand and deaths... 1/

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

4 years

I spent this weekend refining our contact tracing analysis. One of the things that’s always stood out is that for these targeted measures to work, we need public adherence to isolation/quarantine to be very high. But I fear it’s now going to be far more difficult to achieve this.

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

3 years

I’m noticing people who’ve spent months insisting pandemic over, hospitalisations not rising etc. now trying to pivot and say they were just trying to improve debate... So let’s be clear: gaslighting public with claims that front-line medics are lying doesn’t improve anything.

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

3 years

Pundits essentially telling front-line medics whose hospitals are in trouble that their hospitals aren't in trouble has been a particularly awful feature of COVID-19 coverage.

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

4 years

I think we can all agree that paywalled articles in Sunday newspapers probably aren't the best way to announce major organisational changes to public health in the middle of a pandemic.

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

2 years

Some thoughts on the evolutionary trajectory of SARS-CoV-2 so far, how it compares to other viruses, and what might happen next... 1/

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

4 years

Early in the pandemic, there were clear signals from China and Italy about impact of uncontrolled COVID-19 transmission. Now there are signals from multiple countries about what happens if measures are substantially relaxed. It would be profoundly naive to ignore them.

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

2 years

Arguably the laziest and most damaging cognitive error of the pandemic is not appreciating that lagged outcomes like deaths don’t reflect current threat in a rising epidemic. Remember: first UK COVID case was identified on 31 Jan 2020 - first death was reported on 5 Mar.

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

3 years

The above is just an illustrative example, but the key message: an increase in something that grows exponentially (i.e. transmission) can have far more effect than the same proportional increase in something that just scales an outcome (i.e. severity). 5/5

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

4 years

Early in outbreak, each COVID-19 case infects ~2.5 others on average. There's ~5 days between one infection and next, so we'd expect one case to lead to 2.5^6 = 244 more cases in a month. If we can halve transmission, so each infects 1.25 others instead, we'd expect 4 more cases.

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

3 years

Still see 70% quoted as level of vaccination required for 'herd immunity'. Important to note it's now likely to be much higher. The standard (albeit rough) calculation for herd immunity threshold is (1/E) x (1-1/R) where E is vaccine effectiveness in reducing transmission... 1/

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

4 years

Lots of people are now getting interested in infectious disease epidemiology (which is great), but I wanted to do a quick thread on some common mistakes/misunderstandings to watch out for if you're new to these sorts of datasets/questions... 1/

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

2 years

Note to COVID Twitter commentators suddenly pivoting to MPX: if you hadn't heard of monkeypox until very recently, please step away from the keyboard and read up a bit before speculating wildly.

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

2 years

Every year, we run an MSc session on the dynamics of monkeypox transmission, and our team have worked a lot on contact tracing & transmission chain analysis for a range of infections. So a few thoughts on current MPX outbreak… 1/

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

2 years

If COVID immunity can wane, what will happen after large epidemics peak? Some thoughts on post-epidemic 'honeymoon periods'... 1/

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

3 years

I’ve turned down a lot of COVID-related interviews/events this year because topic was outside my main expertise and/or I thought there were others who were better placed to comment. Science communication isn’t just about what you take part in – it’s also about what you decline.

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

3 years

Got a new fridge. It's amazing what AI can do these days.

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

4 years

Look at the Wuhan line on this new graph from @jburnmurdoch . The lockdown was introduced there on 23rd Jan – 69 days ago – which means this entire Wuhan curve has happened since then. It shows how long it can take to see the effect of control measures on the number of deaths.

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

2 years

Any writer who claims 'UK models always overestimate COVID numbers' is either lazy or trying to mislead their readers. A few illustrations... 1/

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

3 years

COVID isn’t SARS, it isn’t influenza, it isn’t smallpox, it isn’t measles. For every analogy we might draw, there are also crucial differences. If the last year has shown anything, it’s not that helpful to put a novel virus in simple boxes when discussing possible ways forward.

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

1 year

People wearing masks in winter when visibly ill (or even better, working from home if possible) was a norm I'd have been quite happy to see pre-COVID, to be honest.

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

2 years

Looks like many countries don't have a plan for future COVID variants beyond 1) hoping they're not inherently worse than Omicron and 2) hoping existing vaccines/boosters are effective as they were against Omicron.

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

3 years

Imagine if we were now facing the Delta variant without widely available vaccines. Because that's the situation many, many countries are currently in.

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

4 years

I want to tell you a story about a mathematician you’ve probably never heard of, but whose work has helped shape a lot of what we’re taking about today... 1/

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

2 years

When it comes to dealing with ongoing COVID epidemics, there are two prominent sources of false hope that continue to be unhelpful: 1. Pretending there isn’t any problem 2. Pretending the problem has an easy solution

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

4 years

It's frustrating that after all these months, there are still so many claims that 'COVID-19 is just like flu' or 'there's this one simple fix that will solve the epidemic'.

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

4 years

'Herd immunity' has been reached during previous epidemics of influenza, measles and seasonal coronaviruses. But it's subsequently been lost (and then regained). What are some of the reasons for this? 1/

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

3 years

Now suppose transmissibility increases by 50%. By above, we'd expect 10000 x (1.1 x 1.5)^5 x 0.8% = 978 eventual new fatalities after a month of spread. 4/

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

4 years

A couple of key takeaways from our analysis of early COVID-19 dynamics in Wuhan: 1. We estimated that the control measures introduced - unprecedented interventions that will have had a huge social and psychological toll – reduced transmission by around 55% in space of 2 weeks 1/

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

3 years

1st March 2020 vs 1st March 2021

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

3 years

As an example, suppose current R=1.1, infection fatality risk is 0.8%, generation time is 6 days, and 10k people infected (plausible for many European cities recently). So we'd expect 10000 x 1.1^5 x 0.8% = 129 eventual new fatalities after a month of spread... 2/

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

3 years

After all these months, it seems some pundits still haven't grasped the crucial difference between contagious and non-contagious risks. Choosing to behave in a way that could increase the spread of COVID in your community isn't the same as choosing to climb a wobbly ladder.

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

3 years

If someone with lots of followers tweets “where’s the evidence for X?” then doesn’t post the evidence as it emerges, I can only assume they’re more interested in spreading anger and confusion than helping people understand what’s happening.

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

3 years

It's strange to see people who last year were unhappy about politicians naming viruses after countries now happily naming variants after countries.

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

3 years

What happens if fatality risk increases by 50%? By above, we'd expect 10000 x 1.1^5 x (0.8% x 1.5) = 193 new fatalities. 3/

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

4 years

How does mathematical modelling analysis feed into UK government COVID-19 policy? You've probably heard of Cobra, chaired by the PM, but there are two other steps worth knowing about... 1/

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

3 years

A stark reminder to anyone who still claims that large uncontrolled COVID epidemics have would been anything other than a catastrophe:

India Covid crisis: Hospitals buckle under record surge

Families of Covid patients are pleading for hospital care as emergency rooms and wards overflow.

www.bbc.co.uk

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

3 years

Preliminary data from South Africa suggests that the novel variant 501.V2 wasn't recognised by antibodies in 21/44 serum samples collected from people infected in the first wave - worth watching today's presentation for more info & caveats

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

4 years

To be clear: we have to reduce impact on UK as much as we can. But we are in this for the long term. A couple of weeks of closed schools and cancelled events won’t solve this - we will have to fundamentally change our lifestyles. 7/

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

3 years

Very happy to be taking some time off to hang out with this little chap, who arrived last week 😊

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

4 years

It’s a straw argument to claim our COVID options are ‘majority back to normal’ vs ‘lockdown’ (i.e. stay-at-home orders, school closures). There are now many international examples available to learn from. When outlining options, we need sound research, not simplistic rhetoric. 1/

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

5 months

UK: we want to be a science superpower Also UK:

Ben Sheldon

@Ben_Sheldon_EGI

5 months

Current starting point for postdoc salaries @UniofOxford just over £36k - £2.7K under threshold. According to @royalsociety 62% of postdocs are non-UK nationals (5/6 in my lab). Two things: (i) postdocs are underpaid; (ii) UK science is screwed

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

4 years

For me, herd immunity has never been the outright aim, it’s been a tragic consequence of having a virus that - based on current evidence - is unlikely to be fully controllable in long term in the UK. 2/

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

3 years

In scenario where R is 6 (plausible for Delta in susceptible populations without any restrictions), and vaccination reduces infection/infectiousness such that onwards transmission reduced by 85%, above calc suggests would need to vaccinate (1-1/6)/0.85 = 98% of population. 2/

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

4 years

Given the seriousness of the situation, we are obviously working to get our latest modelling analysis out in the public domain as soon as we can. 8/8

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

2 years

But so far we haven't seen this pattern for SARS-CoV-2... Omicron didn't emerge from the Delta lineage and Delta didn't emerge from the Alpha, Beta or Gamma lineages (below from ) 6/

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

4 years

Asymmetric scepticism: when people are slow to believe any signals about case numbers going up, but are quick to believe any signal about them coming down.

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

2 years

It took me embarrassingly long to get this:

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

3 years

2021 will have a worse start than 2020, but hopefully a much better end. Stay safe and here's to a new year.

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

4 years

The communication about COVID science has generally been clear in the UK, but talk of ‘herd immunity as the aim’ is totally wide of the mark. Having large numbers infected isn’t the aim here, even if it may be the outcome. 4/

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

2 years

Regardless of exact origins, this pattern means we shouldn't assume next variant of interest/concern will emerge from current circulating Omicron viruses - like other variants, it may well have already evolved (or be evolving) somewhere, from a much older ancestor lineage. 8/

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

4 years

If hospitalisations are rising and you delay making decisions about COVID-19 control measures, eventually the virus will force you to make them. As @SRileyIDD has put it previously, either humans decide the rules or the virus will.

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

4 years

Reminder that SARS-CoV-2 virus hasn't changed – it will continue to be problem until countries can sustainably reduce either: - opportunities for transmission (e.g. via isolation/quarantines) - susceptibility (e.g. via vaccine) - health impact (e.g. via effective treatments)

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

4 years

Our new preliminary analysis looks at the potential impact of various isolation, contact tracing, testing, and physical distancing measures on COVID-19, using social interaction data from over 40,000 people in the UK 1/

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

3 years

I sometimes see people making the mistaken assumption that once a group that make up X% of COVID hospitalisations/deaths are vaccinated, it will reduce hospitalisations/deaths by the same %, even if control measures are lifted. There are two main problems with this... 1/

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

4 years

I’m seeing frustrating trend emerging - early on, some researchers suggested populations already had high immunity, and serology would show this. Now serology is available and doesn’t show this, these claims are apparently shifting post-hoc to justify why new data can be ignored.

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

3 years

As @whippletom put it so well last month, “We needed a debate about policy; instead, we had a debate about reality.”

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

4 years

Stages of epidemic normalisation: "It won't happen" "It's not happening" "It's happening but it's not a big deal"

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

3 years

Would encourage scientists commenting on COVID to think very carefully about whether they want to further normalise personal attacks/Twitter pile-ons directed at teams working flat out on COVID response.

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

4 years

Concerning to see so many dismiss recent rise in US cases because severe outcomes hadn't increased. There’s a lot that’s hard to predict about COVID, but delays are now well known: if cases start rising, then hospitalisations, deaths will generally be next.

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

4 years

We can't put social interactions into simple "risky"/"not risky" boxes based on a single metric – there are several dimensions to transmission risk for SARS-CoV-2, which is why I think the "Three Cs" message is very useful as countries relax measures:

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

2 years

It will take time to understand exactly how much of a problem Omicron is, just as it took time to understand the origin variant, and Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta etc… But that doesn’t mean it’s not a problem.

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

2 years

Quick collation of threads worth reading if you want to know more about the new B.1.1.529 variant identified in South Africa... 1/

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

2 years

This uncertainty illustrates the importance of having good surveillance coverage of genomic variation of SARS-CoV-2 globally, optimised to make best use of resources (e.g. ) as well as ongoing synthesis of available data. 11/11

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

3 years

Most scientists will have opinions on wider aspects of society, politics, economics etc - but that doesn’t necessarily make these scientific opinions.

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

4 years

Sadly, even large-scale changes (like those other European countries are making, and we may very soon) may not control COVID for long. We must flatten the curve as much as possible, but there could still be many infections (and hence immunity). 3/

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

4 years

A lot of modellers around the world are working flat out to find best way to minimise impact on population and healthcare. A side effect may end up being herd immunity, but this is merely a consequence of a very tough option - albeit one that may help prevent another outbreak. 5/

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

4 years

I'm seeing more and more suggestions that contact tracing and/or physical distancing isn't needed and we could solve COVID-19 with widespread testing alone. E.g. just test everyone once a week/fortnight to get R<1. Sounds straightforward? Unfortunately not... 1/

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

2 years

Striking to see correlation between people who said in Jan 2021 “nothing unusual about level of COVID hospitalisations, this is totally normal winter” and people now saying “nothing unusual about 40C temperatures in UK, totally normal summer”

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

4 years

Is the reproduction number currently 0.7, or 0.85, or 0.641? Was it bigger yesterday than today? A thread on real-time estimation and false precision... 1/

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

4 years

It's striking how many projects that have been crucial to COVID-19 analytics - open data collation & curation, rapid development of stats and modelling pipelines, real-time reports and apps - are things that generally aren't valued in traditional metrics of 'success' in academia.

Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

4 years

Would like to take a moment to thank @nextstrain @ECDC @OurWorldInData @BlavatnikSchool @COVID19Tracking @ONS @FT (and many others) for all their hard work providing valuable data curation and situational awareness for COVID-19.

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

2 years

Final note: above all refers to immunity that reduces transmission, as this is what shapes ability of new variants to spread (and hence successfully replace existing ones).

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

4 years

Really useful analysis – in the first 3 days after exposure to SARS-CoV-2, there's a high chance of falsely concluding that the person is negative. Suggests very small window in which it's posible to detect infections in the crucial pre-symptomatic period.

Justin Lessler

@JustinLessler

4 years

Be careful about ruling out #COVID19 infection based on a negative RT-PCR result. Particularly soon after potential infection. See our analysis in @AnnalsofIM with @LKucirka @salauer_biostat @DenaliBoon and Oliver Laeyendecker to see why.

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

2 years

Given that we have to go far back to find a common ancestor between VOCs and other circulating variants, one hypothesis is that they emerged in individuals with a chronic infection: 7/

Moritz Gerstung

@MoritzGerstung

2 years

Some thoughts about the punctuated evolution of variants of concern including B.1.1.529 in Southern Africa. 🧵 A shared characteristic of all known VOCs is that they appeared suddenly with a large number of mutations, many more than the incremental changes we see normally.

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

4 years

This Oxford modelling study has been getting a lot of attention, with suggestions that it implies there has already been substantial amount of COVID-19 infection in UK. But it's important to take a look behind the media headlines... 1/

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

3 years

Note to journalists: if a modelling scenario includes an uncertainty range, that range *is an integral part of the result* - editing it out and just showing the central estimate isn’t the same thing. 1/

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

3 years

Even if COVID wasn’t around, decent ventilation is a very good idea:

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

4 years

I cannot emphasise this enough: it is on all of us to change our interactions now to protect those most at risk. In particular, if you are feeling unwell with fever/cough or similar symptoms - even if very mild - make the effort to self-isolate.

Nicole Bode

@nicolebode

4 years

"it's not just whose hand you shake, it's whose hand that person goes on to shake." @adamjkucharski on social responsibility, coronavirus and why short-term sacrifice of social interaction is necessary for everyone's sake: via @TEDTalks #TEDInterview

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

2 years

So in summary, we shouldn't assume that post-Omicron level of infection/disease is where things will stay for good. What's more, above only focuses on waning immunity (& new births in the case of measles), and new variants also likely to shape future susceptibility to COVID. 12/

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

4 years

A lot of my colleagues in the @LSHTM modelling centre ( @cmmid_lshtm ) have been working extremely hard to help expand the COVID-19 evidence base over the past two months. I'd like to take a moment to highlight some of their work... 1/

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

2 years

Unfortunately, this oft-quoted Spectator tracker of COVID 'scenarios vs outcomes' seems at best muddled and at worst actively misleading. A thread on some weird comparisons - and how to do better critiques... 1/

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

4 years

Regardless of how this particular trial turns out, it's a remarkable achievement to have a vaccine into Phase III within 6 months of the virus sequence first being published

Covid Vaccine Front-Runner Is Months Ahead of Her Competition

The University of Oxford candidate, led by Sarah Gilbert, might be through human trials in September. AstraZeneca has lined up agreements to produce 2 billion doses. Could this be the one?

www.bloomberg.com

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

2 years

This, in nutshell, is why it was so important early on to distinguish extent to which Omicron was causing less severe disease in SA because of prior immunity, or because inherently milder – because if immunity playing large role, epidemic could be much worse elsewhere.

South China Morning Post

@SCMPNews

2 years

Hong Kong has the world’s highest Covid-19 death rate. What happened?

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

3 years

If herd immunity through vaccination alone not possible, need to either: A) keep some control measures in place indefinitely, B) prepare for exit wave as measures relaxed, C) update what are already very good vaccines to be even more effective. 4/

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

4 years

Bit strange to see people claiming population immunity following SARS-CoV-2 infection is possible, but effective vaccine isn't. Or claiming population immunity isn't possible, but effective vaccine is. If post-infection immunity possible, bodes well for vaccine - and vice versa.

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

3 years

Suppose we have a SARS-CoV-2 variant that is inherently more transmissible, and another that is more likely to reinfect people who've previously developed immunity. Which will spread more easily? A thread... 1/

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

4 years

Clearly we cannot finely tune the path of this outbreak. The best we can do is identify actions that have highest chance of effectively and sustainably reducing impact on the population and burden on NHS. 6/

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

4 years

Coverage of disease modelling tends to focuses on population-level 'what could happen next?' scenario analyses and predictions. So I wanted to highlight some early COVID-19 insights that you've probably heard about, but may not realise modelling groups were involved in... 1/

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

4 years

Shout out to the early career researchers around the world who've been doing hugely valuable work on the COVID response essentially in their spare time, against a background of short-term contracts, two-body problems, and other (often full-time) commitments. 1/

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

2 years

I think seasonal coronaviruses and influenza are a sensible 'prior' to bear in mind for what long-term dynamics of antigenic turnover of SARS-CoV-2 could look like. But we also need to remember this process of sequential turnover isn't what's happened so far... 9/

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

4 years

Useful summary of evidence that the observed declines in COVID-19 epidemics across Europe were the result of differences in physical distancing measures/behaviour change, rather than some as-yet-unidentified form of herd immunity

Samir Bhatt

@ProfSamirBhatt

4 years

First, countries plateau at different levels of mortality per capita. As of 17 May 2020, Germany had 95 deaths per million population, the Netherlands had 332, and Italy had 525. If they have all achieved herd immunity, why are they all so different? These are countries that have

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

4 years

Worth remembering that the locations lifting COVID control measures too hastily without good surveillance & targeted control in place are also the locations that will take a longer time to spot new flare-ups

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

3 years

There's evidence B.1.1.7 is both more transmissible () & more severe ( & ). Whatever countries decide to do, they need to remember they're not dealing with the infections they were dealing with a few months ago.

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

4 years

New analysis from @cmmid_lshtm (led by @timwrussell ) provides some rough initial estimates for the % of symptomatic COVID-19 cases that might have been detected/reported in different countries (focusing on those with >10 deaths)... 1/

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

4 years

There are now several studies out there that together give a useful indication of the possible role of pre-existing immunity (antibodies/T-cells etc.) in SARS-CoV-2 dynamics. A few thoughts/links... 1/

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

4 years

Good illustration of how the distribution of reported COVID-19 cases can be highly dependent on how people are tested.

alexandre afonso

@alexandreafonso

4 years

Here is a distribution of recorded Covid-19 cases in Iceland (which tests broadly, even people with no symptoms) and the Netherlands (which tests narrowly, only those with severe symptoms)

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

4 years

Useful illustration of how a rise in SARS-CoV-2 positivity in younger groups can soon become a rise in older groups.

Vincent Glad

@vincentglad

4 years

@AdamJKucharski @chrisbaraniuk Positivity rate by age, in the Marseille region.

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

3 years

It’s appalling that rich countries, having bought and hoarded their way to the front of the COVID vaccine queue, are now talking about autumn boosters rather than going all out to get doses to the places that really need them.

WHO calls for halting COVID-19 vaccine boosters in favor of unvaccinated

The World Health Organization is calling for a halt on COVID-19 vaccine boosters until at least the end of September, its head Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on Wednesday, as the gap between...

www.reuters.com

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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

2 years

Suspect Omicron situational awareness in Europe is about to drop off a cliff. Fast growth in cases and resulting test demand will outstrip capacity, and as Omicron becomes dominant, data on % sequences that are Omicron will no longer be informative about growth.

Jeffrey Barrett

@jcbarret

2 years

Testing capacity will almost certainly fail to keep up with #Omicron : even with best efforts we can scale supply linearly, but demand will grow exponentially. This will happen everywhere at (almost) the same time, so global supply chains of reagents, plastics, etc will struggle.

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