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Brian Potter

@_brianpotter

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Writes Construction Physics. Senior infrastructure fellow at @IFP

Joined January 2022
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Brian Potter
9 days
Moore's 2nd Law states that the cost of a semiconductor fab doubles about every four years. In the early 1970s a fab cost just $4M to build. Today, modern fabs cost up to $25B. This week on Construction Physics, I look at what it takes to build a fab.
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Brian Potter
11 months
The amount of electricity generation capacity sitting in the interconnection queue and waiting to get built is greater than the capacity of all existing US power plants (via )
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Brian Potter
2 years
Not sure if this is surprising or not: the total value of new cars sold in the US last year (~$600 billion) was roughly twice the value of new single family homes built (~$300 billion)
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Brian Potter
7 months
Can't believe I wrote 5000+ words on the history of tunnel boring machines and somehow missed this proposal for a machine that would use the heat from a nuclear reactor to melt its way through the ground
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Brian Potter
11 months
How the clean energy transition was made possible by one company in the 1970s that wanted to burn garbage - a thread
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Brian Potter
6 months
This is wild. US shipbuilding output has declined precipitously since the 1950s, but shipbuilding employment has been fairly steady.
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Brian Potter
1 year
In 1867, the US produced roughly 20,000 tons of steel a year. 40 years later, that had increased 1000-fold, to over 23 million tons a year, and the price had fallen by nearly 75%. This week on Construction Physics I look at how that happened.
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Brian Potter
1 year
The reason the US doesn't have abandoned cars littering the sides of roads anymore is because of cheap shredders that made recycling them profitable
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Brian Potter
9 months
Discussions of US infrastructure often emphasize the poor state that it's in - the word "crumbling" gets thrown around a lot. But for bridges at least, the worst ones have steadily been getting fixed.
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Brian Potter
1 year
It is not a mystery why our concrete lasts only a few decades, it's understood perfectly well - chlorides make their way into the concrete and cause the steel reinforcing to corrode. The corroded steel has a larger volume, and so spalls the concrete.
@JTLonsdale
Joe Lonsdale
1 year
It’s been a mystery why Roman concrete often lasted thousands of years, but ours decays in mere decades. Turns out they incorporated chemicals in a process that induces self-healing; scientists at MIT just figured this all out - in 2022. Extraordinary.
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Brian Potter
2 years
The US basically stopped building large-scale water infrastructure in the 1980s: (graph is value of Corps of Engineers capital stock, which includes "dams, levees, harbors and waterway improvements, locks, channels, hydroelectric generating works, and recreation facilities")
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Brian Potter
10 months
In 1945, there was no commercial production of titanium - it only existed in tiny amounts in research labs. Less than 20 years later, thousands of tons of titanium were being made every year, and it formed the backbone of the most advanced aerospace technology on the planet
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Brian Potter
11 months
Has anyone made a "geography is destiny" style argument for the success of the United States? Largely isolated from enemies, abundant natural resources, being big and spread out spurring the development of industry (labor saving machinery, railroads, cars, etc.)
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Brian Potter
9 months
In 1910, Los Angeles had one of the most extensive mass transit systems in the US. Over a thousand miles of electric railway connected Los Angeles commuters to the surrounding suburbs. But by 1940, nearly all transit in Los Angeles was via car.
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Brian Potter
1 year
In 1907, just 8% of US homes had electrical service. Two decades later, it was nearly 70%. How did this happen? This week on Construction Physics, I look at the early history of the electrical grid.
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Brian Potter
4 months
US Shipbuilders: We're not unproductive, we just need help competing with foreign subsidies! Government: Ok, we'll get the foreign subsidies removed. US Shipbuilders: Wait not like that.
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Brian Potter
3 months
Which book had the highest positive economic impact?
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Brian Potter
11 months
Most of these projects will ultimately be withdrawn before they get built though.
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Brian Potter
1 year
Apparently amusement parks were invented by streetcar companies to take advantage of spare electrical generating capacity (Via "Routes of Power")
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Brian Potter
6 months
Litigious environmental advocacy group NRDC tries to build a "green" paper mill in NYC, finds out that environmental regulations and lawsuits make it hard to build things.
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Brian Potter
4 months
Why didn't Japan or Korea ever become a major manufacturer of commercial aircraft, when they successfully entered so many other manufacturing industries (ships, chips, cars, steel, etc.)?
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Brian Potter
1 year
Another fun example: A single large blast furnace can produce around 3.6 million tons of pig iron a year, which is about 170 times more than was produced in all of England in 1720.
@jasoncrawford
Jason Crawford
1 year
English merchant fleet, 1582: capacity 68,000 tons, crew of 16,000 sailors One container ship, 2022: 236,228 tons, crew of 22 “One ship today carries 3.47 times more than the whole English fleet did 440 years ago” – @gpooley
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Brian Potter
5 months
Putting a man on the moon required incredible feats of manufacturing and engineering, compressing "several decades of technological gain into one". This week on Construction Physics, I look at how that happened.
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Brian Potter
8 months
One cool thing about Stripe Press is that when I suggested some potential book ideas they immediately zeroed in on the extremely ambitious, galaxy-brained idea.
@_brianpotter
Brian Potter
8 months
@rmcentush Here's the pitch from the proposal
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Brian Potter
4 months
When it was formed, US Steel was by far the largest company in the US, with a market capitalization equal to 6.7% of US GDP. Today, it's not even in the Fortune 500. This week on Construction Physics, I look at the long fall of US Steel.
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Brian Potter
2 years
What are some lesser-known enormous infrastructure, construction, or R&D projects in US History? Examples: the Erie Canal, the Croton Aqueduct, and IBM System 360 all cost close to 1% of US GDP at the time to build/develop.
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Brian Potter
1 year
This is overwhelmingly the cause of failure of modern concrete. Roman concrete was unreinforced and doesn't have this problem. It's not uncommon today to build long-lifespan structures either unreinforced, or with stainless steel reinforcing, to prevent this type of failure.
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Brian Potter
2 years
One surprising constraint I learned about when writing the tall buildings article is that for supertall buildings, construction site bathrooms end up being a major bottleneck.
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Brian Potter
4 months
I wonder how many companies got ruined by trying to emulate GE's "best practices"
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Brian Potter
2 years
Reminder that fraction of income spent on housing varies inversely with income, and thus expensive housing acts as extremely regressive tax: (via )
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Brian Potter
8 months
@eric_is_weird My ideal research strategy is something along the lines of "pick a narrow enough topic that you can read everything ever written about it, then read everything ever written about it".
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Brian Potter
4 months
For most of the 20th century, the US had the largest and most advanced machine tool industry in the world. Today, its 5th largest, and US factories are full of machines built elsewhere. This week on Construction Physics, I look at how that happened.
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Brian Potter
2 years
Shipbuilding production over time. Not sure I've ever seen an industry so cyclical that output gets shown on a log scale before:
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Brian Potter
1 year
Roman concrete is still more durable (I assume), but we could build much more durable concrete structures today if we were motivated.
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Brian Potter
2 years
A geothermal energy project might trigger as many as SIX(!) NEPA reviews before construction can begin:
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Brian Potter
10 months
Which companies have incredibly thorough, detailed books written about them? Some examples: DuPont: "Science and Corporate Strategy" by Hounshell Sears: "Catalogues and Counters" by Emmet and Jeuck Ford: Too many to list, but the Nevins and Hill books are in this category.
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Brian Potter
8 months
Contribute to the US Megaprojects Database! We can learn a lot studying past performance on large, ambitious projects ("megaprojects"), but there's no publicly available repository of US projects. Lists that do exist are woefully incomplete.
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Brian Potter
7 months
“so many proposals for high-speed railways in the USA have been dreamt up and shot down that it is almost unsporting to list them.” This week on Construction Physics I look at the long, sad history of attempts to build high-speed rail in the US
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Brian Potter
1 year
What are examples of technologies that were expected to have huge impacts but didn't because they never got cheap? Civilian nuclear power the obvious one, what are some others?
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Brian Potter
2 years
If American trees can't compete in a global lumber market they can simply learn to code.
@AlecStapp
Alec Stapp
2 years
With inflation at 8% and house prices at all time highs, I would simply remove the tariffs on lower cost Canadian lumber
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Brian Potter
8 months
Finished the draft of my book.
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Brian Potter
6 months
One reason for optimism about the energy transition is that we've already done it once. In less than 30 years, natural gas went from generating <10% to 40% of US electricity. This week, I look at how the gas turbine conquered the electric power industry.
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Brian Potter
1 year
Woof, that nuclear experience curve (via )
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Brian Potter
2 years
This week on Construction Physics, I look into the drivers of the housing shortage in the US:
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Brian Potter
2 years
Since the archives were starting to get unwieldy, I put together a quick table of contents for Construction Physics posts (if you're a new reader, start here.)
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Brian Potter
6 months
This week on Construction Physics, I look at the evolution of fracking technology, and how it's being repurposed for geothermal energy
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Brian Potter
11 months
By 1986 96% of the world's wind-generated electricity was being generated in California, and by 1987 California had nearly 17,000 wind turbines producing more than 1.2 GW of electricity.
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Brian Potter
3 months
This week on Construction Physics, I look at the brutal structure of the commercial aircraft industry, and how it drives companies to do things like creating the 737 MAX, an update to a 50-year-old airframe.
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Brian Potter
11 months
1/8 Prior to the 20th century, the US routinely experienced incredibly destructive urban fires. The Great Chicago fire is the most famous, but it was far from the only one. In 1889 alone there were large fires in the cities of Seattle, Spokane, Ellensburg, Bakersfield, and Lynn
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Brian Potter
2 months
There's no shortage of infrastructure that the US has difficulty building, but a new airport might be the hardest of all. The US has built more nuclear reactors in the past 25 years than it has major airports. This week, I look at why.
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Brian Potter
1 year
Also, modern concrete cracks also self-heal, though the Roman stuff could (apparently, based on the paper) self-heal larger cracks than modern concrete can.
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Brian Potter
8 months
Reminder that its bad on purpose to make you click.
@thenation
The Nation
8 months
The root of the problem is that housing is treated as an instrument of profit. The sole solution is to decouple housing from profit and make it a human right.
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Brian Potter
8 months
@rmcentush Here's the pitch from the proposal
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Brian Potter
6 months
An innovative technology ecosystem will look like the opposite of this, with new companies constantly being spun off from existing ones.
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@alexthegrreat
alex 🇺🇸
6 months
incredible graph
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Brian Potter
2 years
Another surprising (?) fact in this same vein: The value of all US single family homebuilders combined is plausibly in the realm of $360 billion, which is just slightly higher than the market cap of Home Depot ($315 billion)
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Brian Potter
6 months
Looks similar if you look at tonnage
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Brian Potter
3 months
Some possibilities: -The Machine that Changed the World (responsible for the spread of the Toyota Production System/Lean Methods) -Early semiconductor design manuals produced by Bell Labs (though presumably the information would have diffused some other way in their absence)…
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Brian Potter
1 year
Couldn't resist writing another piece about iron and steelmaking. This week on Construction Physics I look at the history of one of the cornerstones of modern civilization - the blast furnace.
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Brian Potter
11 months
Today, the market for wind and solar is enormous, and they continue to get cheaper and cheaper, partly because Wheelaborator-Frye wanted to burn garbage in 1977.
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Brian Potter
10 months
A good progress studies project to fund would be to offer a series of book deals for extremely thorough, detailed studies of how different technologies developed and got cheaper. At $100k a pop (an extremely lucrative offer for a book), $10 million would get you 100 such books.
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Brian Potter
2 years
What are examples of projects getting done really fast by organizations that are normally very slow? Examples: State DOTs that normally take a long time to build a bridge/overpass, but build them much faster if it's an emergency replacement of one that collapsed.
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Brian Potter
2 years
A good illustration of a basic point about construction - innovations do exist, but tend to be things that require minimum change in method.
@fastworkers6
How Things Are Manufactured
2 years
All types of drywall and concrete anchors
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Brian Potter
1 year
What are some examples of path-dependency in technology, where the form of it ended up dependent on small, chance factors? Examples I've heard mentioned but not verified -Gasoline vs steam power in early 20th century cars -QWERTY keyboards -Light water nuclear reactors
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Brian Potter
1 year
@CentralUnplan Stainless steel is expensive (maybe 3-4x normal steel), and most buildings will be torn down for other reasons well before the concrete starts to fail. It's just hard to make the numbers work if you're doing like a net-present value calculation.
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Brian Potter
11 months
Because of section 210 of PURPA, along with generous federal and state tax incentives for renewable generation, it became incredibly lucrative for developers to build wind power projects in California in the 1980s.
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Brian Potter
11 months
By forcing utilities to buy their power, a market was created for non-utility electrical generation. Anyone could build a small power plant, hook it up to the grid, and get paid for the power they provided.
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Brian Potter
1 year
Job posting for a position at Shockley Transistor (formerly Shockley Semiconductor), 1960
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Brian Potter
1 year
Wonder how big a problem this will be. Parking garages are designed for a surprisingly small load, 40 pounds per square foot in the US (less if the garage is multistory), same load as residential occupancy.
@SustainableTall
Philip Oldfield
1 year
Oh dear The British Parking Association has expressed concern that the heavy weight of electric vehicles and large SUVs could lead to structural problems for existing parking garages
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Brian Potter
5 months
While I'm in favor of removing the permanent chassis requirement for manufactured homes, I think there's no real reason to believe it would have much effect on manufactured home construction. A thread:
@mattyglesias
Matthew Yglesias
5 months
How to generate a manufactured housing boom: — Allow HUD Code homes to omit a permanent chassis — Ban zoning discrimination against factory-built homes — Treat permanently-sited factory built homes as real property (not chattel) for lending purposes
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Brian Potter
9 months
Not what I expected
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@_brianpotter
Brian Potter
11 months
In the 1970s, the Wheelabrator-Frye corporation owned a small plant that burned garbage, and sold the resulting heat to GE. The company was also interested in using their heat to generate electricity, but they were worried that the local utility wouldn't buy their power.
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Brian Potter
2 years
What are examples of inventions or discoveries that were made by just brute force search of many possible options? Examples: -Edison's lab trying lots and lots of different lightbulb filament materials -BASF trying all possible catalyst materials for the Haber-Bosch Process
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Brian Potter
1 year
"that was how we lived in the heroic days before safety goggles were introduced."
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Brian Potter
10 months
Apropos of nothing, I'm still pretty proud of this diagram classifying different types of prefab building systems I made way back when
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@_brianpotter
Brian Potter
1 year
Apparently this was a huge issue in the early days of flying: pilots would go into a spin when they flew through clouds and no one knew why
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@HeikeLarson
Heike Larson
1 year
@jasoncrawford 2. Flying in the clouds is hard. We've automated navigating in two dimensions with visual references. Flying on instruments is not intuitive, but easy for an autopilot. That's why we teach new pilots to switch the autopilot on if they accidentally are in the clouds.
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Brian Potter
11 months
While wind-generated electricity had been used since the 1800s, it wasn't until the the massive construction boom in California that it began to fall down the learning curve, which eventually made it cheap enough to compete with fossil fuels.
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Brian Potter
11 months
Second, utilities would be required to purchase power from these small generators at their "avoided cost" - what it would cost them to generate the power themselves or buy it from another utility. (The original version merely had this as a suggestion, not a requirement).
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Brian Potter
4 months
What else is on this list?
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Brian Potter
1 year
I noticed this when I went to Hawaii - lots of abandoned cars, presumably because it's too expensive to ship them to a shredder.
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Brian Potter
1 year
I don't have a 2023 reading list, but here's the books I bought on Amazon in 2022:
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Brian Potter
11 months
@dusty1122331 It's still higher after subtracting storage.
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Brian Potter
2 years
American Radiator building, built in 1924 by the American Radiator Company, which was the largest manufacturer in the US of...you guessed it, radiators.
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Brian Potter
2 years
Book I'd like to read: history of civilization through the lens of risk aversion/risk management. Development of insurance, finance, other technology for managing it, how risk tolerance shapes a society's trajectory, etc.
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Brian Potter
11 months
At the time, the federal government was in the midst of passing the National Energy Act, a sweeping piece of legislation that was a response to the 1973 oil embargo, designed to develop new sources of energy and reduce dependence on foreign oil.
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Brian Potter
2 years
Didn't realize that Walter Shewhart was a Bell Labs employee when he developed statistical process control. For those keeping score, this puts "a substantial fraction of the last 100 years of manufacturing efficiency improvement" as another achievement of Bell Labs.
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Brian Potter
11 months
As with California, a very generous national feed-in-tariff that passed in Germany in 2000 was followed by an explosion in solar PV installation. By 2004 Germany made up 60% of the worldwide solar PV market.
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Brian Potter
11 months
With the NEA, Wheelabrator-Frye saw an opportunity to get provisions that were favorable to their trash-burning facility, giving them leverage with utilities. They hired the law firm of Van Ness, Feldman and Sutcliffe to lobby senators on various aspects of the NEA
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Brian Potter
11 months
Several important changes were added to section 210. First, small power producers up to 80 megawatts in size were exempt from being regulated as a public utility, provided they met certain requirements (the original version of the bill had this set at 30 megawatts).
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Brian Potter
2 years
Big plans for the evening? I guess you could say that...
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Brian Potter
11 months
Through their efforts, Wheelabrator-Frye was able to get several notable changes implemented. The most important was in section 210 of a section of the NEA called the Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act, or PURPA.
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Brian Potter
1 year
It's interesting how fine the line is between "things that are easy to automate" and "things that are incredibly hard to automate".
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Brian Potter
8 months
Whenever I go on a trip my wife puts a bunch of little notes in my suitcase for me to read while I'm gone
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Brian Potter
11 months
Section 210 did not get much attention when NEA was being passed. But it ultimately became the most influential part of the NEA.
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