John Couvillon @WinWithJMC Twitter profile

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

ONE. HUNDRED. MILLION. HAVE. VOTED The California update was sent an hour ago, bringing the nationwide total to 100,573,905.

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

CALLING IT: MIlwaukee 95% in. It gave Dems a 31K margin in 2016. Tonight, it's 63K. And Im not seeing offsetting GOP margins in other counties other than Dane or Milwaukee. Karofsky by 20-30K.

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

MAHALO, HAWAII! You're the first state to exceed 2016 turnout...just got confirmation from a Honolulu reporter.

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

6 years

2018 PRIMARY TURNOUT (EXCLUDING CALIFORNIA): Democratic turnout up 69% from 2014, Republican turnout up 4%.

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE: Biden 57.3M (50%) Trump 55.6M (48,5%) As those mail ins from the Wet Coast come in, that lead will likely expand to 4-5M.

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

1 year

MARICOPA COUNTY ARIZONA UPDATE II Since I'm an "apples to apples" kind of guy :) Baseline: 930K, 37.5-37.4% R/D EDAY: 103K, 57-14% R/D NOW: 1033K, 39.5-35.1% R/D

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

ARIZONA VOTE UPDATED Biden lead 887-802K over Trump

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

And now, we're up to 61 million voted.

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

99,719,397 voted. That's with CT and KY added in.

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

This was the Maricopa number. According to @SteveKornacki , Trump got 59% of the 74K new votes

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

6 years

WISCONSIN PARTISAN TURNOUT: Trump carried Kenosha County 47-47% in 2016. Tonight, 56-44% preference for Democrats in primary.

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

TEASER: HI and TX closing in on 100% of the 2016 vote.

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

CALLING IT A DAY. 95.5M votes (+1.35M) (44-34% Dem/Rep) There will obviously be a volume of last minute mail (and some in person) tomorrow. Rest assured I'll grab what I can, in the hopes of tweeting at the point we reach 100 million votes.

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

YOU DID IT, MONTANA! 504,402 early votes, or 101.5% of the 2016 vote. Montana is now the 3rd state to "crack 100%"

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

67.25 MILLION TX update made - they're up to 7.8M, or 87% of the 2016 vote

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

3 years

UNCALLED HOUSE RACES California CD 21 D (Rep up 2356 votes) California CD 25 R (Rep up 159 votes) Iowa CD 2 D (Rep up 47 votes) New York CD 22 D (Rep up 54.3-43.4%) Utah CD 4 D (Rep up 1616 votes)

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

82.MILLION.VOTES Thanks to the MA and GA updates. Left to come in for today: CA CO DT FL NV SC TX WA

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

81.MILLION.VOTES

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

62.MILLION.EARLY.VOTES And the fun starts today, with many updates coming along.

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

99.MILLION.VOTES Thanks to a 4PM update (per an CO SOS email) Waiting on WA (in an hour), any CA updates, and FL (working on)

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

70.MILLION.EARLY.VOTES NY, NV, and a few other updates.

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

More Virginia 227K Dem with 29% in 364K Dem with 38% in 380K Dem with 40% in 617K Dem with 58% in That means a projected turnout between 957-1063K In 2008, Dem turnout was 986K In 2016, Dem turnout was 785K

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

99,495,578 voted. That's where we are right now.

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

PENNSYLVANIA 7/27/2020 VOTER REGISTRATION 8643K registered voters 47% Dem,38% Rep,14% Ind 30400 new voters since last month +5400 Dem +18500 Rep +6500 Ind (1/2)

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

3 years

ONE MILLION VIRGINIANS EARLY VOTED

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

TEXAS CROSSES THE 100% MARK Montana likely to be next

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

68.MILLION.VOTES Doing my midday updates.

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

FLORIDA HAS BEEN UPDATED (10/30) 8.23M TOTAL (+406K) (39.5-38% Dem/Rep) 4.45M Mail (46-31% Dem/Rep) 3.77M In Person (46-32% Rep/Dem)

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

CALLING IT A DAY. 95.6M requests (+584K) (44-26% Dem/Rep) 83.3M votes (+5.2M) (45-33% Dem/Rep) Before tomorrow morning's "Olympic tweetstorm", I'll be getting updates from LA, MT, NC, TX, and VA. and incorporating them in.

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

95.MILLION.VOTES Even though (with all the AM updates available) we're up to 94,995,317, Florida has EASILY voted 4,683 people this morning - probably even in one county.

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

EARLY VOTING HISTORY (10/9 VERSION): Just so Election Twitter can realize how much has changed in the last 7/14 days. Still waiting on any kind of data from Arizona and Nebraska.

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

GETTING CLOSE TO 100M 8 states left, and we're up to 98.74M CA CT HI KY MA NH NY WA are left in terms of updates. Plus any additional updates from FL and CO that'll come in later.

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

FLORIDA HAS BEEN UPDATED (10/31) 8.66M TOTAL (+430K) (39.2-38.2% Dem/Rep) 4.57M Mail (45.5-31% Dem/Rep) 4.08M In Person (46-32% Rep/Dem)

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

CALLING IT A DAY. 95M requests (+514K) (44-26% Dem/Rep) 77.1M votes (+3.9M) (46-33% Dem/Rep) Before tomorrow morning's "Olympic tweetstorm", I'll be getting updates from CA, GA, LA, MT, NC, TX, and VA.

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

FLORIDA HAS BEEN UPDATED (11/2) 9.07M TOTAL (39.1-37.9% Dem/Rep) 4.73M Mail (45-31% Dem/Rep) 4.33M In Person (45-32% Rep/Dem) This means 96.9% of the 2016 vote is in for FL

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

74.MILLION.VOTES

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

2 years

KENTUCKY JUST FLIPPED (voter registration wise)

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

3 years

RIP Congressman Elect Luke Letlow (besides being someone I've worked with/for since 2014, when he was Ralph Abraham's campaign manager) was truly a good man. This is terrible.

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

GETTING CLOSE TO 100M 20 states left, and we're up to 98.46M AL AK CA CO CT DE FL GA HI ID KS KY ME MA NH NJ NY OH OK RI All I need is 77K from each state....wasn't that the amount by which Trump was elected Pres from the "blue wall" states ? That number seems eerily familiar.

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

79.MILLION.VOTERS Thanks, New Mexico !

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

ALMOST 67 MILLION. 164K short - when the TX update comes in in 2 hours, we'll cross that milestone.

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

EV SO FAR: 94.2M mail requests (+1.2M) 71.1M voted (+3.9M) That's before (1) the FL update which Im about to do, (2) updates tomorrow morning for GA/LA/NC/VA

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

HEADS UP: Shocker coming with GA early voting numbers.

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

2 years

FLORIDA OFFICIAL EV NUMBERS In other words, what the FL SOS posts every AM :) 2,172,931 41.2% Rep, 39.8% Dem In 2020, it was 4,173,923 and 45-34% Dem/Rep.

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

GEORGIA SEC OF ST - Said that 16105 votes left to be counted.

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

6 years

KY 06: Democrat Amy McGrath wins absentees in Franklin by 29 points. Trump only carried this county by 5 points.

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

1 year

THREE THOUGHTS ABOUT 2022 1. Independents matter. A LOT. 2. Candidate quality also matters. A LOT. 3. This election is 1998, Part II

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

PRELIMINARY NATIONAL EV NUMBERS: As I wait for AM updates from multiple states (GA, NC, LA, TX, VA and maybe NY come to mind), here's where we stand right now: (1) 91.6M mail ballot requests (+952K) (45-26% Dem/Rep) (2) 59.3M votes (+2.1M) (48-31% Dem/Rep)

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

95-99.9% OF THE 2016 VOTE AS OF 11/1 PM NC (97.9%) WA (97.8%) GA (95.4%) FL (95.3%)

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

6 years

ARKANSAS PARTISAN TURNOUT: With 49% of precincts reporting, 68% are choosing a Republican ballot (54% did in 2014 primary)

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

2 years

PENNSYLVANIA PARTY REGISTRATION CHANGES For the first time since November 2021, Democrats actually GAINED voters. Also this past month, Independents out registered Republicans (who for the first time since last August lost voters).

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

2 years

EARLY VOTING, THEN AND NOW (2020 v 2022) The TURNOUT is not really the relevant number. The Dem/Rep SPREAD is. I'll leave it at that, and post the comparison :)

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

101.MILLION.VOTERS Thanks to @horvick for the "heads up" about OR poasting its new vote totals. Those 200K new votes that put it over 100% and nationally to 101M.

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

The Biden margin in AZ fell from 90K to 80K overall, per Steve.

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

CALLING IT A DAY. 96.96M requests (+296K) (44-26% Dem/Rep) 93.35M votes (+2.9M) (44-34% Dem/Rep) Before tomorrow morning's "Olympic tweetstorm", I'll be getting updates from LA, MT, NC, and VA (if I'm lucky, CA and NV). and incorporating them in.

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

3 years

BIDEN CROSSES 9 MILLION IN CALIFORNIA

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

CALLING IT A NIGHT. Because the CA update won't happen while I'm keeping an eye out for it (watched pot laws in effect here) 99,719,397 is where we stand.

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

NEWEST MEMBER OF THE 100% CLUB Nevada - they just posted everything up to this morning. 1126K, or 100.017% of the 2016 vote.

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

2 years

PENNSYLVANIA CALL McCormick's lead steadily evaporating from 7 to 2K. And I in several counties saw a 9 point spread for Oz with EDay votes OZ WINS PRIMARY

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

FLORIDA OVER 9 MILLION VOTES

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

2 years

NORTH CAROLINA 1st day of early voting: 135,391 EVs. 39-33% D/R. Not very strong for the Democrats compared to the past.

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

6 years

FIRST DECLARED RACE: Republican Hal Rogers of Kentucky. His district, however, went 80% for Trump, so no suspense here.

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

Meanwhile, in Gwinnett County (another Atlanta suburb)

tyler, the reporter

@ByTylerEstep

4 years

The line of voters at George Pierce Park in Suwanee....

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

3 years

ALASKA UPDATE: Some absentee votes reported today: ELEC DAY: 172K (Trump 63-33%) TODAY: 19K (Trump 57-39%) CURRENT: 191K (Trump 62-34%)

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

3 years

SECOND STATE CERTIFIED RESULTS (CONNECTICUT) (The credit for this is 100% @Redistrict ) Biden 59%, Trump 39% out of 1.82M cast

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

ALMOST AT 86 MILLION KY update. Just one more state puts me over the top.

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

PENNSYLVANIA VOTER REGISTRATION 9/28/2020 8,842,893 Total Reg 4,150,678 Dem (47%) 3,426,563 Rep (39%) 1,265,652 Ind (14%) In September, Dems +29325, Reps +64064, Inds +23938 Since Jan, Dems +89825, Reps +177644, Inds +39056

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

6 years

OKLAHOMA (59% IN): 51% are voting in Republican primary (62% did in 2014). Current estimate is Democratic turnout up 109%, Republican turnout up 32% over 2014 primary.

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

UNPROCESSED BALLOTS IN CALIFORNIA - 3.93M total

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

THANKS, FLORIDA ! 98.MILLION.VOTERS And that's without updates from AL AK CA CO CT DE GA HI ID IL KS KY ME MA MN MO NH NJ NY OK OR RI

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

3 years

FOX CALLED IT FOR BIDEN

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

3 years

NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE, 11/25 PM EDITION Biden 80.2M (+11.4M since 11/3) (51.1%) Trump 73.93M (+7.77M since 11/3 (47.1%) TOTAL 157.02M (+19.68M since 11/3)

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

3 years

LITTLE GEORGIA TIDBIT While Georgia has 159 counties, 68% of the state's voters reside in 24 of those counties.

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

STEVE KORNACKI SAYS From Philadelphia: +27K Biden, +4 Trump BIDEN NOW LEADS 5587

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

MICHIGAN JUST CALLED FOR BIDEN

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

ABOUT THOSE BAD BALLOTS IN NORTH CAROLINA: (As of 9/12/2020 AM) Whites: 98% accepted, 2% rejected Asians: 97-3% Two/More Races: 96%-4% Other: 93-7% Blacks: 92-8% American Indian: 87-13% Most common reason for rejection: "witness information incomplete"

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

1 year

GEORGIA EARLY VOTING 181,643 total EV 46-38% black/white (NOT a typo) This lawsuit over weekend early voting was a MAJOR strategic error by Republicans, but let's see to what extent they can catch up, now that ALL counties can vote starting today.

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

GEORGIA DOWN TO +1900 FOR TRUMP

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

Just called it for John Bel Edwards

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

3 years

GEORGIA EXCEEDS 2 MILLION EARLY/MAIL IN VOTES !

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

Accepted ballots (cumulative): (1) White 73%, black 18%, 9% other (2) Dem 58%, Rep 13%, Other 29% Rejected ballots (cumulative): (1) White 44%, black 45%, 11% other (2) Dem 66%, Rep 12%, Other 22% (2/2)

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

3 years

BECAUSE OF MONROE COUNTY NY AND PHILADELPHIA Biden is now at 51% (Trump at 47.2%)

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

STEVE KORNACKI SAYS (8:58AM CT) From Bucks (Biden +2K, Trump +1K) BIDEN NOW LEADS 6737

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

ELECTION TWITTER ANGELS Are pointing me to updated data. Just found a NJ update. We're now at 99,569,398.

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

MORE PA MAIL INS: Came from Lehigh County (Allentown). Which again were 3:1 for Biden

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

2 years

WISCONSIN ELECTION CERTIFICATION The Wisconsin Elections Commission has posted official results. (1) Overall 2 party turnout up 20% relative to 2018. Dem turnout -7%, Rep turnout +52% (2) In 2018, the primary electorate was 56-44% Dem/Rep. This year, it's 58-42% Rep/Dem.

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

2 years

ADVICE FOR THOSE REPS UPSET ABOUT ALASKA Here in the Gret Stet of Looziana, we have the "jungle primary", which is a more indirect version of RCV. It requires candidates (successful ones, anyway) to think in terms of how to get to 51% of the vote. And voters love it.

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

Half a million votes cast in Broward. Wow.

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

64.MILLION.VOTES Now Im up to Pennsylvania. Here are my missing updates (thanks to @AdamBassWCCS for the MA update !) Illinois - no updates since Friday Kentucky - no updates for several days

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

2 years

POST ROE TURNOUT ANALYSIS Corrected Has the Supreme Court ruling caused Democratic turnout to spike ? Let's see what the data says: (1) 12 states (including Hawaii) have held primaries since late June (2) In 2018 in those states, 11.35M voted (54-46% D/R) (1/2)

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

CREEPING CLOSER TO 100% Oregon just updated. 1.97M votes, or 98.4% of the 2016 vote.

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

83.MILLION.VOTES Thanks to the CA, CO, and FL updates.

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

2 years

WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED TO TUESDAY NIGHT TURNOUT Just to give a different perspective from what's being reported ;) 5 STATES: Turnout +4% (Dem -7%, GOP +17%) KANSAS: Turnout +56% (Dem +81%, GOP +44%) OTHER 4 STATES: Turnout +1% (Dem -11%, GOP +14%)

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

3 years

RECENT GEORGIA POLLING (1) Trafalgar: Warnock +1, Ossoff +3 (2) JMC Analytics and Polling: Warnock +9, Ossoff +8 (3) Mellman: Warnock +3, Ossoff +3 (4) Atlas Intel I, Warn +4, Oss +4 (5) Gravis: Warn +2, Oss +3 (6) Atlas Intel II, Warn +4, Oss +4.5 6 polls, 6 "blue times twos"

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

ARIZONA GETTING CLOSER Theyre up to 96% of the 2016 vote.

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

TEASER FOR TOMORROW: Two states are getting fairly close to the 100% mark: Georgia (95.4%) and Washington (97.8%)

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

CALIOFRNIA.OVER.10.MILLION

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

65.MILLION.VOTES Technically, Im up to 64.907M, but I am in the midst of FL, and so far, there's 300K new votes. Here's where Im missing new data HI ID IL MD In Person (maybe not until tomorrow ?) MS NV NY TN WV In Person

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

4 years

NORTH CAROLINA First day in person early votes in. Bad news for Republicans: (MAIL CUME): 556K, 50-18% Dem/Rep (IN PERSON): 333K, 48-27% Dem/Rep In other words, I'd have expected the in person voters to either be 50/50 Dem/Rep or with a GOP edge. (1/2)

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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

1 year

STATE OF THE HOUSE, XIII (1) Reps up 217-205 (adding in those AHEAD makes it a 221-214 Republican House) (2) 13 undecided seats (Dems lead in 9, Reps in 4) (3) The AP called CA 41/45 for Ken Calvert and Michelle Steele (Rep incumbents) (1/3)

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