The MLB velocity range is shrinking. Dove into velocity range, looking all pitchers' minimum, max, and median fastball velos since 2007. Pitchers are indeed max-efforting more and more (and that probably has something - or a lot - to do with injury).
Spencer Strider with a masterclass on accepting defeat, responsibility (it's been lacking from certain players, execs this postseason):
"The people trying to use the playoff format to make an excuse for the results they don't like are not confronting the real issue. You're in…
Albert Pujols is 21 home runs away from 700. There are 15 new DH spots. He's been a below-average hitter for five straight seasons and is 42. Who is biting here?
There is no Tommy John surge this spring -- it's just always this bad since ~2014. Today marks the 100th day of the year, a period during when most elbow injuries occur. We looked at the first 100 days of each year re: TJS procedures for MLB and all pro pitchers since Tommy John…
Me from the future: Cole and Glasnow are pitching in the playoffs today
Pirates in 2014: Yes!!!
Me from the future: But they're not on the same team ...
Pirates 2014: Well, that's OK, we probably traded one for a star
Me from the future: It's an ALDS game ...
A story and a thread on a major failing of the modern stadium construction boom: It's pushed MLB fans further away from the game. We see less, and hear less. It's changed fan behavior. Explored through the lens of moving from old Comiskey Park to new🧵:
This included the COVID-shortened 2020 season, but every other year within the last five MLB was at $9.5 billion or more in revenues. Team values are increasing. Only the Braves' books are public and they netted $103, in cash flow in 2021
Fact-checking comments from Jim Crane ... The Astros were an outlier in improving from 2016 to 2017 (many of the same players), particularly at home. From November:
Some personal news: I am a free agent. I am among those being laid off as ABC News reduces staff. I look forward to whatever is next in journalism, or baseball, or elsewhere. My direct messages and email are open.
Free agency requirements haven't changed since 1976. Arbitration eligibility hasn't changed much since '91. Player career length has changed *a lot.* Service time declined 23% from 2003 to '19. Manfred wrote that MLB players have the best deal. They don't.
The shorter "arm circle" or "elbow spiral" is gaining in popularity (Jameson Taillon and Aaron Civale are among the new adopters) and when you look at the success guys like Giolito, Bauer, Bieber & Plesac have had with the shorter arm action it makes a lot of sense. Mini-thread:
A source with experience in MLB labor talks: "They need to tie [MLB] revenue growth to CBT growth. Are we really going to do this every five years?" Arguably the biggest stumbling block, but there are many.
The Reds are now the fastest team in MLB by median sprint speed. They’ve made significant gains in defensive efficiency since the the middle of May. They’ve doubled the value of their farm system since ‘20. The smoke machine is firing in the clubhouse. 🚀
The Dodgers are deferring $857 million in player salary to 2033-2044, when it won't count against the luxury tax (assuming it exists). Their owners will have had 10+ years to compound their wealth, and grow ballclub revenues against artificially lower star salaries in the…
Some Bobby Abreu facts:
*Players to have scored 1,400 or more runs, stolen at least 400 bases, hit 288+ HR and reached base at .395 clip or better: Abreu, Barry Bonds, Rickey Henderson.
*From 1998 to 2010, no MLB right fielder produced more WAR than Abreu. Only Larry Walker…
Paul Skenes, Kyle Manzardo, and Junior Caminero (among others) are all in the minor leagues when they shouldn't be. There's still far from enough incentive for teams to actually field their best 26. It's also difficult for prospects to improve against MLB competition without…
There are no 1 pm est MLB games today or tomorrow. In the stay-at-home world, surprising to me that the sport is not taking advantage of this time ... while there is a still a season
To give you an idea of how far ahead the Astros are in the player-development-information game, they had 75 Edgertronic cameras installed throughout their system last season when many clubs were experimenting with their first high-speed camera spring
MLB pitchers to have Tommy John surgery in the first 100 days of the year since 2010, according to the
@MLBPlayerAnalys
database:
2010 -4
2011 - 2
2012 - 6
2013 - 4
2014 - 11
2015 - 9
2016 - 4
2017 - 5
2018 - 5
2019 - 5
2020 - 6
2021 - 11
2022 - 3
2023 - 2
2024 - 9
Spencer Strider essentially reverse engineered the Jacob deGrom fastball. The pitch is essentially a laser beam. It's all you really need as arm to dominate, but building it is quite another thing:
Over the last few years, we've heard a lot of media members -- and even folks in baseball -- mock "launch angle" and "spin rate." Well, Ted Williams had a launch angle. Bob Feller had a spin rate. We can just measure those traits now. Baseball is physics. Let's all join 2019.
Neil Walker at $4 million guaranteed is a shocking contract and steal for the Yankees. At least 236 MLB players will be paid more in 2018. He's had seven straight 2+WAR seasons
Some personal news: I'm thrilled to announce I am joining
@theScore
as a senior MLB writer. I'm excited about the fit and feel fortunate to have the opportunity. Storytelling/analysis/opinion for an already popular and growing media company. I can't wait to get started.
Hearing a lot of folks fatigued from MLB labor strife between billionaires and millionaires. One problem with that: the majority of active players are not millionaires
Bob Nutting is a big obstacle to overcome. The Pirates’ FO and staff did it from 2013-15 in part by plucking low-hanging, data-based fruit like pitch framing value and mass defensive shifting. But the club whiffed on maximizing the next wave of data and best, new practices…
I understand why it's hard for many in the public to sympathize with millionaire players, especially with all the pandemic-related job loss. But the thing is most players aren't millionaires and don't retire as such. They make it to the top of their field but time there is short.
The pace-of-play problem baseball didn't know it had: There are now more foul balls than batted balls put in play. Foul balls are up by 12% and foul territory is down by 20.5%
The Atlanta Braves took in a club-record $438 million in baseball revenue in 2019, an 8% increase yoy. ($340 million in operating expenses). They're owned by a publicly-traded company so we get a glimpse into how an MLB club is actually performing.
According to ESPN park factors, Camden Yards has gone from the easiest park to homer at in 2021 to the most difficult in '22. The deader ball and deeper LF/wall is converting a number of extra base hits to outs. Santander just had a grand slam turned into a F7
Update thru play Saturday: 67.2% of MLB pitchers have had a spin reduction (adjusted for velocity) since June 3, and 36% a reduction by more than half a rpm/mph unit. The threat of sticky stuff policing alone seems to be creating deterrence
'The Robot',
@PhilDussault27
🤖, is on the cusp of completing arguably the greatest fantasy baseball campaign of all time. He created 'the system.' It works:
Still wild the Padres were in the midst of a 20-year, $1.2 billion local TV deal that is no more. It's possible, I'm told, all of the MLB clubs tied to Diamond/Bally have their rights revert back like with the NBA clubs at season's end. This uncertainty figures to be influencing…
Super excited to announce that
@Travis_Sawchik
will soon be joining FiveThirtyEight as our national baseball correspondent! Travis has done a tremendous job of blending statistical analysis with traditional reporting at Fangraphs and will vastly improve our ⚾ coverage.
Reminder: A small % of players are paid at the minimum salary level in the NFL, NBA, and NHL. But the *majority* of MLB players are compensated at the minimum level in baseball. The MLB min salary is also *less* than the aforementioned levels of other major leagues.
To the ‘I want more baseball’ crowd. It’s the same amount of baseball - played in less time. This is how it was played from 1871-1980 when it was, for a time, the most popular spectator sport.
With the White Sox reportedly looking at a new stadium site per the
@Suntimes
, they have a chance to create a new model for a ballpark. The retro era failed fans in one major way (compared to classic/jewel-box era). The first team to create a new model, to bring fans closer to…
Every MLB owner who has relocated team, in history, has blamed the fans (you know, the customers. Strange business this is). But it's never the fans, it's the product ... and eight other items in this week's notebook:
I voted for Billy Wagner but I struggled with his candidacy:
*No HoF pitcher who predominately played in the AL or NL, finished his career with less than 1,000 innings pitched. Wagner would be a first at 903 innings. He's pushing the limits on lack of volume.
*I agree with…
Largest free agent deals in Pittsburgh Pirates history: Francisco Liriano (3y/$39 million), Ivan Nova (3y/$26 million), Russell Martin (2y/$17 million).
MLB attendance declines following work stoppages that cost games:
1972 (-3.7%)
1981 (-6.8%)
1995 (-20%!)
Per-game attendance didn't recover the pre-strike average until 2006. ...
Vlad Jr. has a fastball problem. His launch angle on four-seamers in the heart of the plate he's hit to pull side this year? -7 degrees. His overall rate of pulled air balls is down. His FG run value on fastballs has gone from +40 in 2021 to +2 this year.
Now his contact ability…