Thomas de Waal @Tom_deWaal Twitter profile

Pinned Tweet

Thomas de Waal

29 days

Russia has lost its claim to a sphere of influence, to the idea of a “Near Abroad”, since the invasion of Ukraine but the direction of travel is less clear. Listen to me and Fiona Hill discuss this big topic in the @Carnegie_Europe podcast out today.

Europe Inside Out

Thomas de Waal and Fiona Hill discuss Russia’s changing status in its neighboring countries and the factors shaping their relationship with Moscow—and the West.

europe-inside-out.simplecast.com

10

28

105

Last Seen Profiles

@RaineyStJohn

@ndong__

@LiamBroza

@romangruit

@bigimauro

@CastingsFind

@asta_l2

@Kseulove

@TauntonStuCo

@rdabasar

@sydsfdug

@PixelArtJourney

@brettmccracken

@ekcho

@Meeerliebe

@saigaivai

@juanpedro1950

@DaisyM72552

@The_Fozzrr

@jesngvlj

@atrzdflw

@drrrrck

@Nantero

@tktktktknoko

@MarkoRitt

@yunoi_nft

@stw_pdg

@SatinOmg

@PoetryGlasgow

@RchalYang

@MDDI_lu

@bioconsarq

@iamkolten

@slabber_io

@AMF_SA

@FranceauSoudan

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

2 years

1 “The resolution of the Ukraine question.” A mistakenly published Russian article gives us a chilling insight into the neo-imperialist thinking in Russia that drives Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine. A (long) THREAD.

413

9K

19K

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

2 years

2. RIA Novosti news agency accidentally published an article, tagged with a publication date of 8AM on February 26, already celebrating a Russian victory and collapse of the Ukrainian state within an anticipated two days. It's still on their site.

Наступление России и нового мира

Новый мир рождается на наших глазах. Военная операция России на Украине открыла новую эпоху — причем сразу в трех измерениях. И конечно, в четвертом,... РИА Новости, 26.02.2022

web.archive.org

112

2K

5K

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

4 years

Waking up to horrendous scenes after Armenian attack on city of Ganje. Picture shared by my friend Swiss journalist Andre Widmer. He speaks of many casualties.

772

2K

5K

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

2 years

25. We can only hope Ukrainian resistance, international pressure and diplomacy will eventually force a re-think, but what will have happened to Ukraine, how many thousands of lives will have been lost before that happens? ENDS

91

385

4K

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

2 years

3. The main theme is that the "operation" is a defeat for the West's project to defeat Russia. That Putin seized the moment to return Ukraine to its historic Slavic union with Russia and Belarus. Potential NATO candidacy is seen as a symptom of the problem, not the main cause.

10

465

3K

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

2 years

4. Some quotations first and a few comments at the end: The author calls this a “new era.” “Russia is restoring its historic unity: the tragedy of 1991, that terrible catastrophe of our history, that unnatural aberration, has been overcome.”

8

387

3K

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

2 years

19. A few final comments. This is a Russian imperialist discourse: rejected at the end of the USSR, given respectability again under Putin in 2000 but still marginal. It entered Putin’s public speeches after seizure of Crimea—and now has entirely captured Putin’s world-view.

11

423

3K

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

2 years

5. He concedes it's "a civil war in which brothers still shoot at each other even though they were divided only by their membership of the Russian and the Ukrainian armies. But there will now no longer be a Ukraine which is anti-Russia.” The only mention of Ukrainians as people

11

362

3K

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

2 years

6. Putin, we are told, had to act now or to lose Ukraine forever. “We can say without a drop of exaggeration, that Vladimir Putin took upon himself a historic responsibility, by deciding not to leave the resolution of the Ukrainian question to future generations.”

20

373

3K

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

2 years

24. The piece also reveals how far paranoia, grievance and aggression is embedded in state decision making—and is thus far immune to an alternative reality. Part of this is a willingness to endure hardship in pursuit of this Russian imperial project.

15

369

3K

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

2 years

23. The author gets it wrong anticipating Ukraine’s collapse and European disunity. Thank the Lord! But there's less to cheer elsewhere. The bet that only the West cares about Ukraine still has to be disproved, given equivocation of China, India, Turkey’s limited response.

29

302

2K

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

2 years

8. The answer? Kill Ukraine's sovereignty.“Now this problem no longer exists: Ukraine has returned to Russia. This doesn’t mean that its statehood will be liquidated but it will be re-structured, re-established and returned to its natural condition as part of the Russian world…

13

359

2K

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

2 years

21. The author gives no agency to Ukrainians as people. He twists himself in a knot asserting that “brothers still shoot at each other, even though they have been divided only by their membership of the Russian and the Ukrainian armies.” It's regrettable fratricide, folks.

7

326

2K

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

2 years

10. The author moves to the West. “Did anyone in.. Paris and Berlin, seriously believe that Moscow would give up Kiev?… the West as a whole, and Europe in particular, lacked the strength to keep Ukraine within its sphere of influence, let alone to take Ukraine for itself."

11

350

2K

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

2 years

7. The main issue was “the complex of a divided nation and a complex of national humiliation, when the Russian House began to lose part of its foundation (the Kievan one) and then was forced to reconcile itself to the existence of two states of not one but two peoples.”

2

291

2K

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

2 years

22. He magnifies differences in the West over Russia into major splits. That's now answered by Germany's historic reaction to events. Like most imperialists he fails how small countries, from the Baltic States in 1940 to Czechoslovakia in 1968, feel about big neighbours

5

262

2K

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

2 years

13. A big theme for the author is that France and Germany are allegedly fundamentally different from the “Anglo-Saxons,” the UK and US, who are trying to assert Western hegemony over everyone, them included.

30

285

2K

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

2 years

20. Much of the Russian foreign establishment is anti-Western to various degrees but not nearly this aggressive (which is why most of them did not predict the invasion). But their views mean little when Putin makes all the decisions.

5

287

2K

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

2 years

9. “…In which borders and in what form.. (through the CSTO, and the Eurasian Union or as part of the Union State between Russia and Belorussia)?—questions like this will be decided when we have placed a firm full stop to the history of a Ukraine as an anti-Russian entity.”

1

256

2K

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

2 years

12. The big geopolitical clash will cost Russia but it will survive: “No amount of Western pressure on Russia will have any results. There will be losses from the transformation of the confrontation on both sides, but Russia is ready for them morally and geopolitically.”

21

273

2K

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

2 years

14. “The German project of European integration makes no strategic sense as long as there is Anglo-Saxon ideological, military and geopolitical control over the Old World.”“Europeans are now completely uninterested in building a new iron curtain on their eastern borders.”

22

257

2K

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

2 years

11. “More precisely, they had only one option: to bet on the further collapse of Russia, that is of the Russian Federation. But it should have been clear twenty years ago that this would not work. And already 15 years ago, after Putin's Munich speech [of 2007]..."

6

243

2K

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

2 years

17. Article ends: “China and India, Latin America and Africa, the Islamic world and Southeast Asia - no one believes that the West leads the world order, much less sets the rules of the game. Russia has not only thrown down a challenge to the West,...

3

291

2K

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

2 years

*26 Thank you all for the huge response! Let me add one caveat. We can’t know that the article reflects the Kremlin’s intentions, only that a big news agency commissioned it to celebrate victory—and it “rhymes” with Putin’s big speech last week. Let's hope other views prevail.

59

190

2K

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

2 years

15. “[T]he construction of a new world order - and this is the third dimension of current events - is accelerating, and its contours are more and more clearly poking through the unravelling fabric of Anglo-Saxon globalization. A multipolar world has finally become a reality.”

5

251

2K

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

2 years

18. "..it's shown the era of Western global domination can be considered fully and definitively over. The new world will be built by all civilizations and centres of power, naturally, together with the West (united or not) -but not on its terms and not according to its rules.”

11

280

2K

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

4 years

My old friend Carlotta was in Barda yesterday. Her heartbreaking despatch.

In Azerbaijan, a String of Explosions, Screams and Then Blood (Published 2020)

Caught in an Armenian rocket attack, a New York Times reporting team captures the agony of an expanding, dirty war.

www.nytimes.com

254

579

2K

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

2 years

16. "the rest of the world sees and understands perfectly well: this is a conflict between Russia and the West, this is a response to the geopolitical expansion of the Atlanticists, this is Russia's recovering its historical space and place in the world."

12

254

2K

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

2 years

1 A long🧵on the situation in #Transdniestria / #Transnistria , misconceptions and fears that it could turn into a new front in the war. My main point is there's a shared interest both in Transdniestria (TN) and in right-bank Moldova in stopping the conflict from reaching them.

35

555

1K

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

3 years

A big day as AZ regains full control of #Aghdam region. The largest town (1989 pop. 27,000) that AZ lost in the first #Karabakh war, Aghdam was captured intact by Armenians in 1993, then everything was stripped, sold off. Only the mosque remained. I'll never forget this view.

93

282

1K

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

4 years

Speech from President Aliyev not only announces return of occupied territory, also vows "return of Karabakh." No talk of diplomacy or ceasefire. An Armenian village in NK given Azerbaijani name. World please take note: conflict is entering a more tragic and dangerous phase.

Cavid #RussiaIsNotAlly

@cavidaga

4 years

Aliyev's speech started

1

7

108

496

566

1K

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

4 years

Horrible news. This AM a military offensive by Azerbaijan on #Karabakh frontline. Already a small war. Heavy weapons used, Internet down in Az, Arm. side announced mobilization. Follows rise in bellicose rhetoric from both sides—Karabakh Arm. leader declared today...

72

647

1K

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

4 years

Why did Armenians attack Ganje last night, causing multiple casualties? To provoke a response and draw in Russia? Revenge? (I'm told Stepanakert was shelled too) In any case I recall how Gandhi said, "An eye for an eye only ends up making the whole world blind." #NKpeace

471

258

919

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

4 years

Angela Merkel calls Pashinyan and Aliyev, visits Navalny in hospital, arranges to meet Tikhanovskaya. I'm glad one world leader is being an actual leader.

24

164

840

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

8 months

The news everyone feared but hoped could be avoided. Azerbaijan launches military assault on Karabakh. Bitter terrible news for the people in Karabakh and for the whole region. Read live updates here

Live updates | Stepanakert under fire as Azerbaijan launches assault on Nagorno-Karabakh

Azerbaijan has launched ‘ anti-terrorist measures’ in Nagorno-Karabakh to ‘restore the constitutional structure of the Republic of Azerbaijan’.

oc-media.org

1

515

837

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

3 years

I’ve almost stopped commenting on Twitter on Armenia-Azerbaijan (too many vigilantes out there on both sides) but this is really depressing to behold. The shooting has stopped, but the victory=humiliation-of-the-other mentality lives on.

Neil Hauer

@NeilPHauer

3 years

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev today, at a newly opened exhibition displaying the helmets of Armenian soldiers killed in last year's Second Karabakh War

554

1K

2K

187

142

736

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

4 years

Awful news

Orla Guerin

@OrlaGuerin

4 years

#Ganja #Azerbaijan The scene here looks more like all-out war than ceasefire. Seems the Russian brokered truce was dead on arrival. Important to say #Azerbaijan too is accused of violation the truce and shelling civilians areas in #NagornoKarabakh

2K

6K

8K

102

308

670

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

4 years

With so much else happening in the world, the appalling case of Gulag historian Yury Dmitriev being given a 13-year prison sentence by a Russian court is not giving the attention it deserves. The man is a hero.

Yuri Dmitriev: the historian being silenced by Putin - Index on Censorship

A Russian historian's research into killings during Stalin's regime has resulted in an extreme campaign against him

www.indexoncensorship.org

24

383

697

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

4 years

1 An especially horrendous day in the new #Karabakh war. Reports from the Azerbaijani town of Barda of a missile strike killing at least 21, wounding dozens more. Probably the worst civilian death toll of the conflict so far.

Nagorno-Karabakh conflict: Missile strike on Azeri town kills 21 civilians

Azerbaijan says Armenia's military has targeted civilians as the Nagorno-Karabakh war intensifies.

www.bbc.co.uk

173

232

688

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

7 months

If you read only one piece on the #Karabakh conflict and Armenia and Azerbaijan do read this. A powerful blast of humanity and a cry from the heart, as an Azerbaijani IDP calls for the cycle of ethnic cleansing to stop.

As an Azerbaijani, I have to speak out about my country’s ethnic cleansing of Armenians | Ruslan...

I want my voice of hope to reach the displaced children of Nagorno-Karabakh, says Ruslan Javadov

www.theguardian.com

1

238

633

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

8 months

Azerbaijan’s decision to use violence when the EU was actively trying to mediate in #Karabakh makes for a decisive break in EU-Baku relations. And that’s not all—also a pivot to Russia and a domestic crackdown. My piece today for @Carnegie_Europe

2

268

627

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

8 months

1 Day 1 of a new war in #Karabakh (an awful thing to write.) A terrible day for Western diplomacy, for peacemakers, above all of course for the people of Karabakh. Main observation, I'm afraid, is that it has the potential to get a whole lot worse.

2

250

591

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

3 years

I am so saddened and shocked to hear of the death of Hikmet Hadjizade. Azerbaijan's truest democrat, man of principle, most devoted lover of rock and roll, a ray of sunshine and humour in many lives. RIP, dear Hikmet, you left us too early.

18

45

576

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

4 years

New thread. I'm quoted here on the #Karabakh fighting. (There is a lot more nuance if you watch the whole interview) I’m aware that people like to quote me selectively so important for me to state a few core beliefs I have about this conflict

‘We are a step away from a large-scale war’

Clashes erupt periodically in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, and the latest crisis has raised fears of an all-out war.

www.aljazeera.com

37

326

547

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

4 years

One big Question hangs in the air, as #Belarus crisis deepens, #Lukashenko loses his 26-year-old grip on power. How will Russia respond? I’ve followed Russia’s relations with its post-Soviet neighbours for 25 years. A THREAD on how Russia has no good options. 1/7

11

236

534

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

4 years

Yes. Ganje this morning. A reckless missile attack on a city, supposedly against an airbase, unsurprisingly hits normal city streets. Casualties reported. Long-range missiles do this. Civilians on both sides are bearing the brunt of this and it has to stop.

Alex Raufoglu

@ralakbar

4 years

Attacking historic cities & civilians, spreading hate & terror, attack all the moral/ethical values that lie in our hearts: respect for #HumanRights , rule of law, rules of war, & most importantly, the peaceful resolutions of conflict. STOP! NOW! #Azerbaijan #Armenia #NKpeace

13

53

113

225

466

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

8 months

Days after Azerbaijan's military takeover of Karabakh, Presidents Aliyev and Erdogan meet in Nakhchivan today and will very likely make ultimatums to the Armenian govt. to "open the Zangezur Corridor or else..." With Russia's agreement so long as its troops are deployed there.

3

193

491

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

8 months

1 Reading both alarming reports of the situation on the ground in #Karabakh and Western reaction at UNSC meeting last night a disturbing déjà vu of the beginning of the Bosnia war. (I hope I’m wrong)

3

216

481

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

2 years

A peaceful European country is experiencing an unprovoked invasion unseen since the Second World War. Heartbreaking, tragic and totally senseless.

9

101

468

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

2 years

Tbilisi this evening. wow.

Mariam Nikuradze

@mari_nikuradze

2 years

Rustaveli right now - waiting for President Zelensky's address

16

304

2K

6

107

472

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

3 years

Sergei Parajanov takes flight! 40th anniversary of Yuri Mechitov’s famous photo.

6

63

470

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

3 years

I also say here (apologies to friends in Paris) that, if the OSCE Minsk Group format continues, it’s time for a rotation. After 23 years France should give up its co-chair role to another European country. A mediator with equal regard in Baku and Yerevan is needed now.

110

77

458

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

8 months

The dire humanitarian issue inside Karabakh is surely the main story today. The more international attention and plans for international presence the better. Diplomats in Baku should be asking to visit the region.

Panic in Nagorno-Karabakh but Azerbaijan rejects fears of ethnic cleansing

Thousands of ethnic Armenians fear for their safety despite Azerbaijan's promises.

www.bbc.co.uk

1

236

468

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

1 year

1/ If you haven’t been watching the situation in the so-called #Lachin Corridor, the only road connecting Armenia and #Karabakh , you should now. The Armenian-Azerbaijani situation may be sliding slowly back into conflict. A short thread.

43

160

433

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

3 years

Officially Austrian, and proud to have a second citizenship! Thinking today of my grandmother and her parents, stripped of their citizenship in 1938, and glad that the arc of history has come around so many years later. (Outside @Kipferlcafe , photo credit to @HansGutbrod )

27

14

424

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

1 year

1 Pay attention to #Georgia 🇬🇪 today! A THREAD Last night police in Tbilisi forcibly dispersed a protest against a new Foreign Agent law rushed through parliament. It’s an escalation by the ever more authoritarian Georgian Dream govt

Reuters

@Reuters

1 year

Protesters in Tbilisi shielded a woman waving an EU flag from a water cannon directed at them, as police in the ex-Soviet state of Georgia tried to break up a protest outside parliament against a draft law on ‘foreign agents’

42

145

456

9

139

421

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

7 months

1 Read in full Pres. Aliyev’s victory speech from Khankendi/Stepanakert yesterday—and be warned. It’s an angry speech, dwelling on past grievances, with nothing about the future or reconciliation. No olive branches.

191

166

414

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

8 months

1 @ForeignAffairs asked for a longer piece. This is about how Western actors never really got in the game in resolving the #Karabakh conflict. And latterly were outflanked, could not prevent war and the awful scenes of flight we see today.

The End of Nagorno-Karabakh

How Western inaction enabled Azerbaijan and Russia.

www.foreignaffairs.com

2

183

414

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

2 years

Not true. As I have said a few times recently there are around 1,500 “Russian” soldiers in #Transnistria / #Transdniestria of whom less than 100 are uniformed Russians, the rest are locals. South Ossetia or Crimea this is not

Iuliia Mendel

@IuliiaMendel

2 years

There are at least 12,000 Russian troops stationed in Transnistria, which reached to within 25 miles of Odesa, Ukraine’s chief port and third-largest city. Odesa is potentially a major target in Moscow’s stalled push to seize Ukraine’s Black Sea coast - NYTimes

165

343

973

14

91

395

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

17 days

An extremely dangerous speech that will chill anyone who cares about Georgia 🇬🇪 to the bone. There will be plenty of commentary but no summary can convey the full-on conspiracy-minded paranoia. Bidzina Ivanishvili seems to believe this stuff. Read in full

Bidzina Ivanishvili Backs Anti-Western Policies, Threatens Repressions

Bidzina Ivanishvili, founder and honorary chairman of the Georgian Dream party, addressed the supporters who were bussed to Tbilisi by the government, especially for this occasion. Ivanishvili...

civil.ge

28

179

414

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

3 years

Horrible videos of atrocities against Armenian captives have emerged over last few days, as @joshuakucera tells here. So many war crimes were committed in this and last war and are unpunished. Only an international investigation will have any credibility

Evidence of widespread atrocities emerges following Karabakh war

A steady stream of videos depicting shocking atrocities by Azerbaijani soldiers against Armenian civilians and prisoners of war has emerged on social media.

eurasianet.org

99

175

391

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

4 years

1 For those distracted by news elsewhere: the war in #Karabakh may be moving towards a potentially bloody battle for the city of Shusha (which Armenians call Shushi) deep inside the territory. Azerbaijani forces are reported to be no more than 3-4 km away.

47

189

394

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

4 years

In 2013 I wrote this essay on how I came to write my book Black Garden. I felt that the Karabakh conflict needed a different narrative which was neither the mainstream Armenian and Azerbaijani versions and set out to write it...

A New Narrative for the Karabakh Conflict

There are hidden reservoirs of compromise and consensus between Armenians and Azerbaijanis that are being ignored and can be the basis for a peace agreement—if anyone cares to look for them.

carnegieeurope.eu

108

72

401

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

2 years

Shocking and criminal scenes from Kharkiv. “People literally walking round in a daze” brings back awful memories of those left in Grozny in 1995—another Russian speaking city the Russian armed forces decided to “liberate” with heavy artillery.

Al Jazeera English

@AJEnglish

2 years

@natachabut An Al Jazeera team was able to enter the devastated city of Kharkiv in Ukraine after Russia announced a pause in fighting to allow people to leave. Reporter @stratfordch was shocked by what he saw ⤵️

411

7K

12K

14

147

384

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

4 years

@msadoyan @Anar_Karim @AzDelUnesco @UNESCO @AAzoulay @ErnestoOttoneR @heritage_gov_az @culture_gov_az @mechtildrossler @LaurenceBroers If Azerbaijan wants to put up a sign saying "Albanian church" who can object. It must ensure free passage of Armenians to churches under its control and not touch the Armenian-language inscriptions and tombs there. Helpful to have a UNESCO commission visit all these monuments.

101

54

376

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

10 months

Borrell EU statement on #Karabakh is extremely clear: humanitarian situation is grave; Azerbaijan must open the Lachin corridor for supplies; Aghdam road would be complement to #Lachin , not alternative; work of @ICRC must not be impeded. Much less clear: what Baku will do

121

119

371

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

8 months

RIP Nagorny Karabakh (July 7, 1923 - September 28,2023) * Final dissolution January 1, 2024

0

191

366

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

8 months

We live in a weird world where an American pro-Azerbaijani neocon is fighting for the implementation of Putin’s deal of November 2020 for Russian FSB border guards to guard the Zangezur Corridor/route to Nakhchivan across Armenia.

153

63

351

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

3 years

The old Aghdam, famous for musicians, gangsters + cheap red wine will not return. Rebuilding a new one will be a big endeavour. Returnees will feel anger at seeing these ruins--one element of the new trauma and hostility Azerbaijanis and Armenians are facing in 2020.

29

28

338

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

10 months

I spoke to a friend in #Karabakh last night who confirmed how terrible the situation is there – food shortages big queues when supplies do appear. No gas and intermittent electricity. Mourners must walk to a funeral because there's no petrol or diesel.

Azerbaijan/Armenia: Sides must reach “humanitarian consensus” to ease

Despite persistent efforts, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) is not currently able to bring humanitarian assistance to the civilian population through the Lachin corridor or

www.icrc.org

72

140

331

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

2 years

Horrific. Impunity and lack of investigation of war crimes from the 2020 war is enabling new atrocities, now the apparent killing of these seven unarmed Armenian men in the last Azerbaijan incursion. Glad to see this EU response.

Toivo Klaar

@ToivoKlaar

2 years

Another horrible video has emerged of Armenian prisoners of war apparently being executed. If this video is proven to be authentic then this is a war crime that needs to be investigated and the perpetrators punished.

637

440

1K

1

110

304

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

3 years

On the anniversary of the most tragic day of the Karabakh conflict of the 1990s and my own contribution to understanding it.

A President, an Interview, and a Tragic Anniversary

Twenty years ago, the worst episode of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagorny Karabakh occurred near the small town of Khojali, where more than 400 Azerbaijanis fleeing the town were killed...

carnegieeurope.eu

73

63

288

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

4 years

3 Shusha has great meaning in Azerbaijan as the birthplace of poets and composers. It was their town in Karabakh before the war, with an 85 percent Azerbaijani population. See this patriotic video released today.

49

45

292

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

3 years

Remembering the bravest journalist of them all. Anna, I was glad to have known you. One day Russia will remember you. As @CoalsonR says, her fears have been realized. Free journalism is shut down and a veil of darkness has covered Chechnya for 15 years.

Fifteen Years After Her Murder, Journalists Say Politkovskaya's Fears Have Been Realized

Before she was killed on October 7, 2006, Anna Politkovskaya bemoaned the fate of journalism under President Vladimir Putin, saying independent journalists can expect "death, the bullet, poison, or...

www.rferl.org

2

99

299

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

7 months

I don’t normally respond to allegations against me--life is too short. But I should point out, in response to what some Azerbaijani media are saying, that I have never worked with or for Ruben Vardanyan.

2

32

293

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

4 years

Here is a thoughtful Azerbaijani perspective, that Armenians should pay attention to, even if they don't agree with it. If there had been more Anars on each side over the last 25 years real dialogue would have been possible

46

87

275

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

4 years

1 A THREAD about Kelbajar. Today was billed as a momentous day for Kelbajar region with Armenian forces scheduled to withdraw from lands they have held since April 1993 + control restored to Azerbaijan. However the timetable has been extended, perhaps to ease potential trouble

28

90

269

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

2 years

16 What now? De facto president is trying to sound friendly to all. As one colleague said, the strategy is “keep as quiet as possible and pray to God that people in Moscow forget that Transdniestria exists”

The PMR President's address

I appeal first of all to the residents of Ukraine in particular Vinnitsa and Odessa regions, bordering Pridnestrovie, as well as to Pridnestrovian Ukrainians and to everyone who has relatives and

novostipmr.com

3

37

270

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

3 years

I’m being asked to comment on a piece by German academic Christian Kolter alleging I practice “false neutrality” and have a pro-Azerbaijani agenda. Briefly, as I'm very busy: I've never heard of Dr. Kolter TBH (would be glad to see any of his work). Nothing of substance here.

67

15

262

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

3 years

What a great loss. One of the bravest people I ever met. His mission to Chechnya in 1994 to stop the war was an act of supreme principle and courage. He warned about Russia’s slide away from democracy earlier than almost anyone.

Sergei Kovalyov, Heir To Sakharov Who Always Put Principles First, Dies At 91

Sergei Kovalyov, who died in Moscow on August 9 at the age of 91, was one of the last surviving members of the generation of Soviet human-rights pioneers whose selfless activism permanently placed...

www.rferl.org

4

86

268

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

9 months

My piece on the worsening crisis in and around #Karabakh , serious humanitarian needs of local Armenians, ominous signs of new conflict, Azerbaijani hubris/self-confidence and why the world needs to pay much more urgent attention.

Armenia, Azerbaijan on the brink – again

Conflict in the South Caucasus could break out for the third time in as many decades. But a compromise may still be possible.

engelsbergideas.com

3

87

269

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

4 years

A personal despatch from young journalist @LikaZakaryan on experiencing the tragedy of constant war inside #Karabakh . Remember this is a small place where every family is losing loved ones.

38

59

263

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

4 years

I'm checking out of the long passionate Twitter discussion I had with many Azerbaijanis today. I didn't learn much new, but I do get the frustration, I really do. And thanks to those who messaged me privately with kind messages--including some who criticized me publicly!

49

31

250

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

3 years

Three months after fighting over #Karabakh ended, here is my attempt at a comprehensive look at what happens next between #Armenia and #Azerbaijan . The human cost was great, emotions are still high. List of unfinished business is long

Unfinished Business in the Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict

The November 2020 ceasefire agreement halted the war over Nagorny Karabakh, but a sustainable peace agreement remains far from reach. By providing economic support and fostering dialogue and reconc...

carnegieeurope.eu

45

80

245

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

3 years

1 Pres. Biden may recognize the destruction of the Ottoman Armenians in 1915 as the Armenian Genocide @john_Hudson , @JakesNYT report. It’s the right thing to do. It will start to bring solace and closure to Armenians whose grandparents died in 1915-16.

117

55

250

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

3 years

Horrible. The Jewish part of me feels this acutely. In the 19thC Caucasus “hook-nosed” “greedy” Armenians echoed anti-Semitic tropes in Europe. Now a young sculptor studying in Venice repeats it today. I’m glad to see Azerbaijanis rejecting this, but big damage has been done.

Cavid #RussiaIsNotAlly

@cavidaga

3 years

Authors of wax figures: "We tried to create the ugliest representations. We usually try to do something beautiful. But now it was the other way around. It was a long and difficult process. We gave them hooked noses, flat heads and other features."

1

51

109

119

61

249

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

2 years

RIP, Rustam Ibrahimbekov, brilliant Azerbaijani Oscar-winning screenwriter, fine intellectual, Baku cosmopolitan of the finest sort, one of the most decent people I ever met in the Caucasus. Your country is much poorer without you.

Rustam Ibragimbekov - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

10

29

243

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

2 years

8 Importantly Transdniestria, which has a bigger industrial base, is invested in trade with the EU and has quietly joined the EU’s DCFTA free trade zone as an economic part of Moldova. I wrote about this a few years ago…

An Eastern European frozen conflict the EU got right

A recent EU deal with Moldovan breakaway territory Transnistria shows the bloc at its very best.

www.politico.eu

2

31

242

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

2 years

2 In the end if Russian advance continues to Odessa spread of the conflict to Moldova is quite likely. But internationals should bear in mind that TN is far from eager to be Russia’s helper against Ukraine. It's more complex and to suggest so fans conflict.

6

29

245

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

4 years

Some organizations may not survive new #Karabakh conflict: CSTO (Russia does not assist Armenia). EU’s #EasternPartnership (2/6 members at war) Also tough for #OSCE , already in crisis. Baku and Yerevan already used veto powers to block decisions, could now make OSCE unworkable.

69

79

242

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

8 months

Note to media: conflict in #Karabakh is not over. As well as talks today, reports of gunfire, terrified Armenian civilians in Stepanakert. Also some local officers not laying down their arms. Casualty figures now estimated at 200+ Follow @cavidaga @marutvanian @SiranushSargsy1

0

123

243

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

4 years

Don't call them frozen conflicts! Almost by accident, I seem to have written another book.. With @niktwick . We wrote five papers on post-Soviet conflicts. He did Donbas, I did Abkhazia, S. Ossetia, Transdniestria and NK. Big intro makes it a book. 1/4

Beyond Frozen Conflict

Following the recent outbreak of hostilities between Azerbaijan and Armenia, we would like to draw your attention to CEPS' book Beyond Frozen Conflict by Thomas de Waal and Nikolaus von Twickel,...

www.ceps.eu

20

85

245

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

4 years

The ever-growing catastrophe of the new #Karabakh conflict @laurencebroers sets it out: Huge death toll of young soldiers, growing civilian casualties. Cluster munitions. Risk of new ethnic cleansing if fighting extends into Karabakh. COVID spike. Winter approaches. A tragedy.

Laurence Broers

@LaurenceBroers

4 years

In the shadow of geopolitical intrigues, a humanitarian crisis is unfolding in and around Nagorny #Karabakh - my latest for @CHRussiaEurasia #Armenia #Azerbaijan

33

84

146

49

122

239

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

4 years

3 In 2017 @bbcwitness interviewed Khalid. He tells the story of how the only escape route for thousands was by foot across the Murov Mountains. Livestock perished and people froze. Listen to the story of how he walked with his father for two days.

Witness History - The Nagorno-Karabakh war - BBC Sounds

One man whose family were made refugees during the Nagorno-Karabakh war tells their story

www.bbc.co.uk

4

47

226

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

2 years

Wow. "The main problem with our military-political position is that we are a in a state of complete geopolitical isolation." Says military commentator live on main Russian state TV channel.

Francis Scarr

@francis_scarr

2 years

In an extremely rare moment of candour on Russian state TV today, defence columnist Mikhail Khodaryonok gave a damning assessment of Russia's war in Ukraine and his country's international isolation. It's fairly long but worth your time so I've added subtitles.

4K

21K

75K

16

57

229

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

8 months

“A ghost town”

Hov Nazaretyan

@HovhanNaz

8 months

latest footage from Stepanakert's central square

76

650

1K

0

103

238

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

2 years

9 To visitors Tiraspol looks like a Soviet theme park with Lenin statues and hammers and sickles. It's very much part of Russky Mir. That makes for great photos. But one Transdniestrian told me, “My head is in Russia, but my legs walk towards Europe”

2

22

226

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

8 months

The sad exodus from Karabakh is underway. Huge credit to @marutvanian @SiranushSargsy1 and others for continuing to tell us the human story from inside Karabakh under impossible circumstances.

Marut Vanyan

@marutvanian

8 months

Everyone is looking for 5L petrol… Morning Stepanakert…

17

51

242

1

89

228

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

2 years

A reminder, if it was needed, that territorial integrity is an important principle of international law, but so are self-determination and the non-use of force. In some cases (Ukraine) the moral weight is clearly on one side.

3

36

211

Thomas de Waal

@Tom_deWaal

5 months

My long essay on the state of the South Caucasus published for @engelsbergIdeas The aftermath of Azerbaijan’s violent takeover of Karabakh, the precarious state of Armenia and the lessons Georgia takes from it. The new focus on Zangezur and Nakhchivan...

Armenia's existential moment

Armenia is facing its most precarious moment in three decades. The loss of Karabakh, a region with a centuries-old history of Armenian habitation and heritage, will reverberate for generations.

engelsbergideas.com

111

78

222