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Tom Calver

@TomHCalver

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Data Editor, The Times and The Sunday Times | Data Journalist of the Year, @Wincottfound | thomas.calver @the -times.co.uk

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Joined November 2013
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@TomHCalver
Tom Calver
1 year
🧵NEW: Who are private schools for in modern Britain? Private schools are keen to suggest their pupils are from middle class families, who would have to pull them out if Labour stuck 20% VAT on fees. The data paints a different picture… @thetimes
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@TomHCalver
Tom Calver
2 years
South Africa's case fatality rate falls again to 0.5%. The theory that Omicron causes milder symptoms is becoming very hard to ignore...
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@TomHCalver
Tom Calver
2 years
NEW: Who are Britain's 9m benefits claimants – and is our system fair? Some MPs believe benefits are too high. Here are some facts about the UK's welfare system. A thread 🧵📊 @thetimes 1/12
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@TomHCalver
Tom Calver
2 years
NEW: If the Tories lose Wakefield on Thursday, one reason will be that women are set to vote 2 to 1 against them. Why are women in Britain becoming more left wing – and why didn't it happen sooner? My analysis in tomorrow's @thesundaytimes 1/8
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Tom Calver
2 years
NEW: For the first time in decades, the number of young women not working to look after family is starting to rise As 1/3 of women barely break even after returning to work, Britain's childcare costs are pushing women out of work @PregnantScrewed
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@TomHCalver
Tom Calver
2 years
Interesting. The number of London Covid patients has risen about 50% in two weeks – but around 44% of that rise has been people admitted for other non-Covid reasons...
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Tom Calver
1 month
🚨 New @thetimes MRP poll has the Tories on just 98 seats…
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Tom Calver
10 months
🥑 Debunking the avocado toast myth (from yesterday’s @thetimes piece) Twenty years ago, under-30s were the joint-biggest spenders on restaurants and hotels Now, it’s 50-64-year olds
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@TomHCalver
Tom Calver
1 year
🧵 NEW: Should junior doctors get a 35% pay rise?? Most unions are timid about broaching double figure pay rise demands: not the BMA. But the fact is, the NHS doesn’t have the pull it once did - and doctors can double their salary overseas @thetimes
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Tom Calver
1 year
🧵 EXC: Just *9% of people* agree with the government that Brexit has been a success, while 62% believe it has failed That includes a plurality of leave voters, and some of its biggest proponents. Where did it all go wrong? @thetimes
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Tom Calver
3 months
🧵 NEW: Why are salaries so much higher in the US than in Britain? Both nation’s economies are going in very different directions - but there is more to headline differences than meets the eye… @thetimes @KeiranSouthern
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@TomHCalver
Tom Calver
4 years
New with @estwebber : the Conservatives’ multi-billion pound “towns fund” was supposed to give money to the most deprived towns in England. Instead, it looks like a gift to Tory marginals
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Tom Calver
2 years
I wrote about the health consequences of Covid lockdowns. They saved thousands of lives, but disrupted, damaged and permanently altered millions more Two years on, some of those secondary consequences are coming home to roost. @thetimes
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Tom Calver
3 years
Why are we talking about vaccinating teenagers when the net benefit to an individual 12-year-old is low? One key reason: because the Indian variant is so transmissible, we need all the population immunity we can get
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Tom Calver
1 year
🧵 NEW: How do we solve the nurse's pay crisis? Nurses have finally had enough – but the government is not budging on its 4.75% offer. How do we fix this mess? Enjoyed writing about a subject close to my heart (my mum's a nurse of 30+ years!) @thetimes
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@TomHCalver
Tom Calver
3 years
NEW with @Gabriel_Pogrund Britain's 85 hereditary peers have cost the taxpayer more than £47m since 2001. They claim more but contribute less to debates As calls grow for their abolition, our investigation sheds light on the men who were born to rule
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Tom Calver
2 years
🧵 NEW: The nightmare a million of us can't shake off Covid's death rate has plummeted in Britain. Yet with infections set to stay high for the foreseeable, will the number of long Covid sufferers keep on rising? 1/9 #LongCovid @SessionsTlc
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Tom Calver
2 years
NEW: How does Labour win a majority? 🌹 With memories of the 90s, some think an election win is in the bag – but history shows they cannot be complacent. I looked at the voters Labour needs to woo to stand a chance in 2024, in today's @thetimes 🧵📊
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Tom Calver
2 years
This has accelerated recently. One reason is that our population is sicker than it was. In the past 3 years, the number of people who have left the workforce because of long-term sickness has risen by *400,000* Long-Covid and a 7m NHS waitlist are almost certainly to blame 8/12
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Tom Calver
2 years
The real question – which this chart cannot answer – is whether a) the fall is just because there is much more immunity in the population than in July: people have become better at dealing with Covid or b) Omicron intrinsically causes milder symptoms than previous variants
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Tom Calver
21 days
🚨 NEW - Who will win the next election? Delighted to launch @thetimes Poll of Polls. Our latest estimate gives Labour a 20 point lead 🔴 Lab 44 🔵 Con 24 ▶️ Reform 13 🟠 Lib Dem 9 🟢 Green 6 Bookmark this page, we'll update it weekly. Thread 🧵
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Tom Calver
2 years
So low-paid work is a key reason why so many are on benefits. Another third of claimants, though, have no work requirement – most of whom are disabled and unable to work. The share of people too ill to work has been rising dramatically... 7/12
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Tom Calver
8 months
I talked about consultant's pay on @TimesRadio this morning – here are some charts to go with it 1. Consultants' pay has fallen about 21% in real terms since 2010. Their pay has been eroded more than that of other medical staff, and considerably more than the average salary
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Tom Calver
1 year
NEW: The rise of the local MP 🗳️ Chances are, your MP was born down the road. Local representation has never been stronger. But there are downsides – especially now that the government needs to get things done. In today's Sunday Times @thetimes 🧵
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Tom Calver
2 years
NEW: Was Britain smart with Covid, or just lucky? Ministers have all but declared the pandemic over: just one in 2,000 infections leads to death But how much of our apparent success is down to “following the science” – and how much of it was luck? 1/8
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Tom Calver
6 months
NEW: I wrote about what I think is an overlooked point in polling on Israel and Palestine Most of the strongest Israeli sympathisers in Britain also have a lot of sympathy for Palestinians, and vice versa. It is not a zero-sum game. @thetimes
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Tom Calver
1 year
🧵NEW: Who deserves a pay rise the most? They present a united front – but in reality, unions are competing for spoils, esp in the public sector. And as the data shows, those with the best case are not always the ones shouting the loudest... @thetimes
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Tom Calver
2 years
Britain has a "long tail" of relatively low-paid work, says @tonywilsonIES . A tenth of households make just £7,000 a year before tax and benefit adjustments. Without benefits, some 21% of people would be below the poverty line in Britain, according to @OECD figures 6/12
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Tom Calver
2 years
A few may (oddly) believe that reducing real-term benefits would encourage more back to work Yet ultimately it would be *very* unpopular: by 61 per cent to 19 per cent, voters overwhelmingly want to benefits to rise w/ inflation 12/12 Full piece here
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Tom Calver
1 year
Pay has been stagnant since the financial crisis, with especially poor growth in the public sector But plot the real-term wage growth of striking workers on a chart, and it's clear teachers and nurses have had a particularly rough ride...
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Tom Calver
2 years
The peaks on this chart are when case numbers are low, so the data is skewed by people who actually caught it weeks earlier But South Africa's last big Covid wave was in July, when the case fatality rate was about 2-2.5%
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Tom Calver
2 years
Secondly, the risk profile for #longCovid is *completely different* to dying of Covid Covid is much more deadly to the old – yet long Covid seems more likely to impact people in their 30s and 40s 6/9
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Tom Calver
2 years
📍 I’m delighted to have been appointed Data Projects Editor at The Times and The Sunday Times! I’ll still be writing data-driven journalism for @thesundaytimes , and making sure our long-term data projects are of the highest standard across both papers 1/3
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Tom Calver
3 years
Covid deaths starting to fall quite quickly (*whispers* especially among the over-80s 👀)
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Tom Calver
2 years
"We have far too many people who are fit to work, who are able to work, and should be working," Braverman said last week. Yet DWP data shows 41% of claimants *are* actually working. Why? 5/12
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Tom Calver
2 years
And at the end of the day – for all the talk of 'Benefits Street' culture, and despite our increasingly unwell population – Britain actually has more people in work than most other rich countries 11/12
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Tom Calver
2 years
This matters economically. More than 205,000 people say their long Covid symptoms impact their ability to do day-to-day activities "a lot" Nearly 3% of teachers and health & social care staff report symptoms – industries already beset by staffing problems. 7/9
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Tom Calver
2 years
🚨 NEW: Undersea Britain 🗺️🔌🐟 How cables and pipelines connect us to the world – and leave us vulnerable. 97% of the internet flows underwater: could saboteurs cut us off? Big @thetimes data project w/ @CjtClover @mkeith @ryanleewatts @venetiamenzies
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Tom Calver
1 year
What effect do bursaries have? Research has shown the representation of households in the poorest third has gone from 1% in 2000…. to 2% in 2015 In reality, private school attendance looks like a hockey stick: very low across the board, unless your family earns six figures
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Tom Calver
3 years
Pretty surprising that 50% of 16-year-olds in England have Covid antibodies, according to the @ONS – despite no widespread vaccination It suggests immunity could be higher than expected in younger age groups
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Tom Calver
2 years
Two key things make the #LongCovid pandemic different to what we thought we knew about the virus Firstly, the severity of the initial infection *does not* seem to impact on whether or not you get it. Just 75,000 of the 1.1m with long Covid initially went to hospital... 5/9
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Tom Calver
1 year
Our low wage growth for teachers and nurses makes us something of an international outlier. Nurses' pay has grown in nearly every other @OECD country since 2010; not Britain. And as @JackWorthNFER has shown, teachers' salaries have stagnated more than in any other rich nation
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Tom Calver
1 year
EXC: Ahead of tomorrow’s strike, support for junior doctors goes… up! 59% of the public now back strike action, vs 34% against It comes as the country’s top doctor warns tomorrow’s action will be the “worst in NHS history” @YouGov @Ben_Spencer
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Tom Calver
2 months
🧵NEW: Who is the backbone of the welfare state? In the cold fiscal treasury view, it might as well be the 47-year-old male solicitor from Surrey on £85k - for those in the top tenth pay 60% of income tax (and are set to be squeezed even more) @thetimes
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Tom Calver
2 years
Rather than the effect of individual politicians, it is likely wider demographic shifts are combining with the effects of austerity – including sky-high childcare costs – to finally push women away from the Tories. Full analysis in tomorrow's paper 8/8
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Tom Calver
2 years
It's the myth that won't die. When C4's Benefits Street first aired in 2014, many Tories were enraged that people on benefits were able to afford luxuries like "widescreen TVs" Last week Suella Braverman said Benefits Street culture was still a "feature" of modern Britain 2/12
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Tom Calver
2 years
It is true that welfare is expensive. Welfare costs hover around 10% of GDP, ~44% of which – £87bn – is spent on people of working age Bar Covid and the financial crisis, that spend has stayed relatively stable since the 1990s 3/12
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Tom Calver
1 year
Nothing in Britain works: how do we know it’s thanks to Brexit? We can guess the economic impact, as @JohnSpringford has done, simulating Britain’s performance against a “doppelgänger” of countries. This method finds the economy is 5% smaller than it could have been….
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Tom Calver
2 years
🚨 NEW: Is this the end of the full-time family doctor? GPs say the job is no longer feasible full-time. Every morning patients are stuck for hours on hold. Many are put off booking appointments. What went wrong with primary care – and how do we fix it?
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Tom Calver
5 months
🧵 Using most conventional measures, the city of Doncaster is no more “full” than the rest of Britain, contrary to the claims of one of its MPs Yet it raises the interesting Q: why are local perceptions of migration often at odds with the data? @thetimes
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Tom Calver
2 years
It wasn't always that way: for most of the 20th century, women were more likely to vote Tory. In fact, in the 1910s some liberals were wary of giving women the vote, fearing it would give the Tories a clear advantage. It was only in 2017 and 2019 that the pattern reversed 2/8
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Tom Calver
11 months
Johnson’s final approval ratings, as others like @robfordmancs have noted, were among the worst of any recent PM. But the real surprise is that - compared to previous PMs - his peak was pretty low too. He was never that popular to begin with, with worse ratings than May in 2016…
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Tom Calver
2 years
Who are these claimants? About 56% are female, and they're more likely to be in their early 30s. But exclusive data from the @BESResearch also shows they're far less likely to vote in elections, and were about half as likely to vote Tory in 2019 4/12
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Tom Calver
1 year
EXC: 💍
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Tom Calver
1 month
And here’s that @Survation / @BestForBritain poll at constituency level
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Tom Calver
2 years
NEW with @Ben_Spencer What will Omicron Britain look like? With the variant expected to overtake Delta within weeks, how much will our lives have to change? (hint - it might not be as bad as you think🤞) Our analysis in tomorrow's @thesundaytimes
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Tom Calver
1 year
🧵 NEW: How HS2 became a £100 billion money pit The endless chopping, changing and deliberating has helped make HS2 one of the most costly railway lines in the world. Why is it so expensive? With @NicholasHellen in today's @thetimes
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Tom Calver
3 years
Good news: the vaccine ethnicity gap is starting to close! A month ago black people in their 80s were half as likely to be vaccinated as white people. Now it's two-thirds and rising, as those who first refused it are coming forward w/ @HannahAlOthman
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Tom Calver
1 year
🎉 I am over the moon to win Data Journalist of the Year at the @wincottfound awards!! A huge thank you to all my editors, colleagues and sources 🙏
@Wincottfound
The Wincott Foundation
1 year
Wincott’s Data Journalist of the Year was @tomhcalver from the Sunday Times, who produced a crisp combination of data and words covering benefits, pensions and nurses’ pay - "a model of the genre"
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Tom Calver
2 years
Is our system fair? the UK has one of the lowest "replacement rates" in the @OECD : people who lose their jobs face huge initial pay cuts Yet those benefits remain static, regardless of how long you're unemployed: Britain is a better place to be long-term unemployed 9/12
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Tom Calver
2 years
Here, though, women have been getting more socially liberal since the 1990s, and at a faster pace than men. Data from @NatCen shows how women became tolerant of homosexuality much faster than men did, for example 5/8
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Tom Calver
1 year
Who goes to private school? Not many of us. They account for about 1 in 10 schools in Britain, but educate 1 in 15 pupils. That share has stayed between 6-8% for half a century. The decline of boarding & arrival of 31,000 foreign students has done little to shift those numbers
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Tom Calver
1 year
For property purchases in Greater London, the average first-time buyer deposit is now a whopping £125,000 Most people who do buy in the capital, therefore, are turning to their wealthier parents...
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Tom Calver
1 year
A 35% payrise sounds absurd when compared with the demands of other unions; 19% is a better measure of the amount needed to restore doctors to 2008 Yet the reality is junior doctors can earn much more elsewhere - and there is less and less to keep them
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Tom Calver
2 years
Campaigners say childcare costs – made worse by a cost of living crisis – are to blame. Britain already had one of the highest childcare costs in the world, according to the OECD. Most parents' childcare now costs the same as their rent or mortgage, says @PregnantScrewed
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Tom Calver
21 days
But given the broad national swing away from the Tories, what's quite interesting is just how little movement there has been among those who backed Remain in 2016 - whereas among Leave voters, Tory support has more than halved
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Tom Calver
2 years
Some astonishing charts in the latest Warwick modelling update If we didn't have any immunity at all – and under current behaviour – one person with Omicron would infect about 12 others 🤯
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Tom Calver
2 years
The real mystery is why more women continued voting Tory until 2015. In the US, women have been consistently more likely to vote Democrat since 1980. Experts point out that women's healthcare and safety issues are much more politicised in 🇺🇸 than in 🇬🇧 4/8
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Tom Calver
2 years
Another is physical health. Childhood obesity had been hovering at around 10% for years – then surged to 14.4% during lockdowns. Decades of policy failures show how hard it is to get those numbers down again
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Tom Calver
1 year
🧵 15-minute cities: are they a fad or the future of urban living? Conspiracy theorists aside, new polling shows the policy is popular. But outside of dense cities like London, their scope may be limited My feature in today’s @thetimes
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Tom Calver
3 months
But how do US workers spend their extra cash? Quite underwhelmingly, actually. Take away healthcare, housing and transport, and actually annual spending by both countries looks quite similar. More in @thetimes
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Tom Calver
2 years
Poor education – closely linked to future health – is perhaps the biggest secondary consequence. In 🇬🇧 a third of 5-7-year-olds were ~3 months behind on reading last year In 🇸🇪 –which mostly kept primary schools open – a study of 97,000 pupils found *zero* Covid learning loss...
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Tom Calver
1 year
There has been a panic among private schools over their declining oxbridge share, which has gone from a third to a quarter since 2010 But if it was more representative of the state sector, it would be much, much lower. Private pupils are still much more likely to apply & get in
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Tom Calver
1 year
Nursing is an international market: nearly half of all nurses who joined the NHS last year were from overseas. Yet by international comparisons, Britain's nurses are not that well paid when adjusted for purchasing power. Nurses can get much better salaries in 🇮🇪🇪🇸🇺🇸🇦🇺
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Tom Calver
4 years
NEW - for a month the NHS Covid app was missing thousands of infections because it was set at the wrong sensitivity. Officials say a "shockingly low" number of Android users were being told to self-isolate before an update last Thursday w/ @Gabriel_Pogrund
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Tom Calver
2 years
Experts like @RosieShorrocks and @ProfRosieCamp say the trade union movement binded men to Labour, and that women were more likely to be religious Since the 70s, though, female employment has risen. Women moving from the "private to public realm" has shifted them leftwards 3/8
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Tom Calver
1 year
🧵 NEW: Can private healthcare really save the NHS? The Tories want to "turbocharge" private hospitals to make them take more NHS patients and cut waiting times. Yet history – and the data – shows it is no silver bullet @thetimes
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Tom Calver
2 years
Universal Credit does at least encourage people to work much more than the system it replaced Because of the threshold for tax credits, there used to be little point in some claimants working more than 16 hours a week – you wouldn't get much more money 10/12
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Tom Calver
3 years
Ludicrously happy to be shortlisted for Data Journalist of the Year at the @EditorsUK Press Awards!!! 🍾📊🎉
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Tom Calver
1 year
Yet in that time, fees have grown astronomically. Since 2000, boarding and day rates have gone up by 66 and 77% respectively The average wage? Not so much
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Tom Calver
6 months
🚨 DATA JOURNALISM JOB ALERT🚨 We're hiring a Senior Data Journalist at The Times & The Sunday Times This time we're open to a range of skills and experience, from scoop-getters to developers. Here's a short thread of the kind of projects you might work on 🧵 #ddj #dataviz
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Tom Calver
3 months
Here are the industries where the gap in 🇬🇧-🇺🇸 salaries is biggest and smallest, thanks to data from @IndeedUK . Although no industry pays better in the UK, the figures reveal some fascinating differences about the relative values of professions in either country
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Tom Calver
1 year
🧵 NEW: What social class are you? In modern Britain, it probably has little to do with your income – or even the kind of job you do. Yet prejudices remain as strong as ever Analysis in today's @thetimes
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Tom Calver
2 years
Covid is far from the killer it once was. But for hundreds of thousands of people, it is severely impeding their ability to live, work and function normally. The government may have to take note Full analysis in today's @thesundaytimes 9/9
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Tom Calver
1 year
For decades, nursing has suffered from being thought of as a "vocation" which people "enter as a calling". Modern nursing has to rely on huge amounts of goodwill from staff who work in difficult conditions Perhaps as a result, nursing strikes have more support than others...
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Tom Calver
2 years
Could Boris Johnson, or other Tory politicians, be the reason women are turning leftwards? Not according to the data: a gender breakdown from @IpsosUK suggests he is equally unpopular between the genders... 7/8
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Tom Calver
1 year
But even that pay cut is a significantly bigger fall than the average worker has experienced in that time. It’s a bigger fall than nurses, although smaller than consultants, who have seen pay fall 20% since 2010
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Tom Calver
3 months
🚨NEW: Rishi Sunak would need to pull off the biggest political comeback in 70 years to win the next election Ten months out, no party has overturned a polling deficit of 7 points or more; Sunak is 20pts behind. With @Steven_Swinford @oliver_wright
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Tom Calver
3 years
The government listened to "herd immunity" scientists over its own experts in the run up to the second wave - with disastrous consequences. Proud to have worked on this Sunday Times Insight piece with the brilliant @Arbuthnott @JCalvertST @shanti_das
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Tom Calver
1 year
There are still differences when we adjust for the typical wage in each nation. In many wealthy European countries, hospital nursing is a *well-paid job*, earning 20% above the average salary. Not in Britain...
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Tom Calver
1 year
The stakes are high – some 40,000 nurses left the profession in the year to June 2022. They are being replaced, but experts warn the NHS is losing the experienced nurses it desperately needs More in tomorrow's paper @thetimes
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@TomHCalver
Tom Calver
1 year
🧵 NEW: Have police given up on solving low-level crime? Charge rates for public order offences - some of the crimes people are most likely to experience - have plummeted as police shift resources to more complex crimes. Here’s why it matters…
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@TomHCalver
Tom Calver
2 years
Our pandemic is probably best thought of in two acts Delayed lockdowns meant 2020 was terrible, and we ended up with one of the highest death tolls in the world Since then – balancing freedoms against illness – we haven't done too badly. Overall, our death toll is average
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@TomHCalver
Tom Calver
2 years
Lockdowns undoubtedly saved tens of thousands of lives. But two years on, the health and socio-economic consequences of keeping everyone indoors are becoming clearer. Next pandemic, many experts want these secondary health factors to be weighed up too
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@TomHCalver
Tom Calver
1 year
If we wanted to save a few billions to pay for this, there are a few things the NHS could do It could take further steps to reduce its agency staff bill – currently £3bn. Or it could target stress and burnout, the leading cause of absence, which costs the NHS billions a year.
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@TomHCalver
Tom Calver
1 year
This isn’t controversial: most people would agree being a doctor should be a well-paid job. The problem is that you can get much better pay in other English-speaking countries - especially when qualified. 🇺🇸 doctors make double what 🇬🇧 ones do
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@TomHCalver
Tom Calver
2 years
NEW: Free lateral flow tests face the axe under government plans for “living with Covid” which will be announced within weeks At least £6bn has been spent on them so far Scoop by the brilliant @cazjwheeler
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@TomHCalver
Tom Calver
2 years
📈 NEW: How bad will Omicron get? 📈 After two years of this, it is easy to switch off when experts warn of chaos and doom I tried to find some numbers to explain what we can expect over the next few weeks In tomorrow's @thesundaytimes
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@TomHCalver
Tom Calver
11 months
☀️ NEW: The quiet solar revolution Solar panels are being installed on homes at the fastest rate in 8 years Yet rather than a burst of environmentalism, the truth is that better batteries - and soaring energy prices - make it worthwhile again @thetimes
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