Trevor Scott . AI @TidefallCapital Twitter profile

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

3 years

Q3 2021 Letter $FFH.to

Q3 2021 Letter

$FFH.to

tidefall.substack.com

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

6 years

What Jeff Bezos thinks when an Analyst congratulates him on a "good quarter".

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

4 years

FinTwit right now.

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

2 years

🚨 BREAKING: The arena will soon be known as The Exxon Mobil Center, Exxon announced on Wednesday. The name change will occur Dec. 25 and is part of a 20-year agreement that believed to be the largest venue naming rights deal in U.S. history to date.

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

2 years

Due to inflation, a Canadian pizza chain is offering customers forward contracts. 🍕

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

6 months

It’s Sept 19, 2014. Meghan Trainor is all about that bass and Taylor Swift is shaking it off. Alibaba is the fastest growing retailer in the world. You invest $10,000 at the IPO. 9 years pass. Revenues grow from $5.5b to $123.6b. Your investment is now worth $8,426. $BABA

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

4 years

Warren Buffett on diversification (1998)

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

6 months

“The best armour of old age is a well spent life preceding it.” RIP Charlie and thank you

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

4 years

value bros

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

3 years

me thinking about $baba

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

6 years

Cosine: The exact moment Jeff Bezos decided not to become a physicist.

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

3 years

I'm calling the top on SPACs.

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

5 years

Charlie Munger's infamous raisins quote.

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

2 years

Don’t feel bad. This is the zoom setup for the largest landowner in the US.

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

3 years

Warren Buffett on his 1966 investment in Disney.

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

2 months

You maniacs are paying $10bn for this? $DJT (*Note: These financials are in thousands, not millions)

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

1 year

Lemonade 🍋 -94%. The only thing it disrupted was its balance sheet. $LMND

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

2 years

"Apple reportedly completes production tests for AR/VR headset with a final release apparently planned by the end of the year.” $AAPL $FB Even with Meta’s massive head start, I still think there’s a very good chance Apple just walks in and crushes Zuck’s dreams.

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

2 years

who didn’t pay for $ZM

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

3 years

Charlie Munger is savage: "I don’t agree with you. I think the Chinese companies are stronger than ours and they’re growing faster. And I have investments in them and you don’t. And I’m right and you’re wrong. (laughter) Well you can laugh, but I just spoke a simple truth."

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

2 years

$TSLA market cap is equal to the rest of the top 20 auto makers combined.

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

1 year

George Soros’s son describes his father's investment style.

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

2 years

Damodaran on Cathie Wood: "It sounds a little delusional to be talking about bubbles when your biggest holdings are $TSLA, $SQ and $TDOC."

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

4 months

Me: fondly looking at cheap Chinese stocks. China:

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

2 years

Cathie Wood on $TDOC. “This is like Amazon... it’s a 10x... If you don’t take risk, you’re never going to be able to generate returns."

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

2 years

all of this analysis and you can just buy $GOOGL for 17x

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

5 years

Instead of getting my 7 year old niece yet another toy for her birthday, I'm giving her one share in Disney that will vest when she turns 18. (This will also be her Christmas present). I'm pretty sure she will consider this her worst gift tomorrow.

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

6 months

winfrey: "we are a growth company." faber: "you didn’t grow last quarter." winfrey: "we grew adjusted ebitda .7%." $chtr

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

2 years

Mark Zuckerberg’s billion dollar privacy investment defeated by @joerogan in 10 seconds.

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

3 years

"What kind of a lunatic would loan money to a European government at 1% for 100 years?" - Munger

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

8 months

you maniacs are paying $60b for this?? $ARM

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

6 years

Exactly one year ago tomorrow, Bill Nygren laid out his bull case for $GOOGL. His view was that its stated PE of 29x was misleading and in reality was closer to 15x. I updated his methodology to today's numbers: 12.8x.

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

3 years

$SNAP 19x revenue $FB 19x earnings

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

4 years

If you had invested $10,000 in Twitter at the IPO 7 years ago, you'd have $10,454 today. @jack $TWTR

Jon Erlichman

@JonErlichman

4 years

Jack Dorsey explains Twitter (2006):

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

3 months

Peloton’s new advertising campaign with TikTok influencers has been ‘less successful than anticipated’. $PTON -24%

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

2 years

If you are wondering why Tobi is having a Twitter melt down. Imagine paying the people you work with $330 million in stock options just last year and having it near worthless today. Oh and you personally lost $10 billion in less than 6 months. I get it. $SHOP

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

3 years

For everyone regretting not buying a megacap high growth tech stock like $GOOGL at 20x forward earnings ex-cash. $FB is trading at that exact level right now. ($303.6 - $32 cash / '22 est $13.58)

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

6 years

Can't help but think of this meme every time I hear him talk now.

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

1 year

As of Q1 Ron Baron had 49% of his partners fund in $tsla

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

6 months

dear lord... $baba "I regard Alibaba as one of the biggest mistakes I ever made. I got charmed by their position in the Chinese internet and didn’t stop to realize, they’re still a gawd-damned retailer.” - Munger (Feb 15, 2023)

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

3 years

Buffett on short selling: "It's ruined a lot of people." - 2001 AGM

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

2 years

“Every crisis we have is always the worst crisis we’ve ever had. If you have a long term plan, these things come and go. You can capitalize on these situations.” - Bruce Flatt $BAM

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

5 months

we’re so back

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

6 years

Jeff Bezos started Amazon because he lives his life by a 'regret minimization framework'.

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

2 years

this chart constantly stays in mind

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

2 months

You maniacs are paying $8bn for this? $RDDT

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

4 years

Charlie Munger on Tesla and @elonmusk . $TSLA

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

1 year

"Paul Buchheit, the former Google employee who created Gmail, wrote in a series of posts on Twitter that (post ChatGPT) the company may be “only a year or two away from total disruption.” $GOOGL

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

6 years

Buffett pushed the idea that consumer moats like Coke and Gillette were wonderful businesses with wide moats. However, tech platform businesses supersede these examples. I can go a year without a coke and I don't care what razor I use. I can't function without Google's products.

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

2 years

dating a value investor

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

3 years

$FB repurchased more than $7 billion of stock in Q2 – the largest allocation to repurchases in its history, by a wide margin. - @TSOH_Investing

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

3 years

How do you know if somebody has bitcoin? They'll tell you.

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

6 months

It’s September 1992. Bill Clinton has just won the DNC. Sister Act is bringing in millions at the box office. The number one song is November Rain by Guns N’ Roses. You invest $1000 in Barrick Gold. 31 years pass. Your stock is now worth $989.60 $GOLD

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

2 months

"The Nvidia God Trade." This clip is so good.... $NVDA

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

6 months

Remember in 2016 when .000017% of Chipotle customers had 'gastrointestinal issues' and the stock got cut in half? Turns out it was a great buying opportunity; stock is up 5x since. One of the plaintiffs in the lawsuit asked for ‘free burrito coupons’ as part of their settlement.

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

3 years

$AAPL "That homescreen is some of the most valuable real estate in the world. Fifth Avenue will never come close to that. You've got hundreds of millions of people with loads of buying power and it's part of their daily habit. That real estate is worth a fortune." - Buffett 2018

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

3 years

Tidefall Q2 2021 Letter $FB

Q2 2021 Letter

$FB

tidefall.substack.com

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

6 years

The best of Jeff Bezos' Interview (April 20, 2018)

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

2 years

"slow the pace of some of our investments” $FB 🔥🔥🔥

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

2 years

the bottom was burry liquidating his portfolio

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

2 years

@tobi cutting the pizza into more slices doesn’t make it bigger.

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

20 days

This is how you lose reserve currency status and see your borrowing costs explode.

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

2 years

puru bought puts on $FB today

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

1 year

The fact that $BX had to offer these terms to get an investment is terrifying.

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

2 years

and just like that, grantham has vanished until the next 10% drawdown.

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

3 years

Every big macro interview ends with the guest highly confident that a decade plus trend is just about to reverse. It rarely does but it always sounds intelligent at the time, especially when they finish their argument with some random piece of anecdotal evidence.

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

7 years

In honor of Prime Day, I'm giving away a $25 card to the best stock idea for the next 10 years: 1. Retweet 2. Reply with ticker and thesis

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

5 months

people listen to this guy for financial advice

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

4 years

Full Druckenmiller interview. H/T @dennycrane550

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

3 years

The breakup $FB bear case is actually the bull case. Zuck is obsessed with Ancient Rome, he even named his 2nd daughter August. Zuck will never breakup his own empire. Regulators can! If just Insta were spun out at $SNAP's multiple, its market cap would be greater than all of $FB

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

4 years

Most chilling lines from #BRK2020 : "Our cash position of $124b isn't that huge." "Index funds will do fine over 20 or 30 years." "People did not think in the fall of 1930 that they were in a great depression." Buffett is an eternal optimist but this is very clearly a warning.

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

2 months

$SPY PE ratio is 28, my portfolio has a median PE of 6. I’ve never had a wider divergence in my career... Let’s see what happens.

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

4 years

Value bros right now

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

3 years

25,000 followers, thanks FinTwit 🥳! I don't know how to thank you other than offering the Patagonia hedge fund vest. Leave a like and I'll randomly choose one of the names tomorrow.

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

3 years

Bezos: The most important single thing is to focus obsessively on the customer. Amazon Search: Here's 2 rows of sponsored listings.

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

7 years

10 years in: Macro is important but hard to profit from. Research great companies with extremely passionate CEOs who focus on the long term.

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

1 year

just got off a flight with a guy from Toronto who owns multiple investment properties 🏘️ that were acquired by levering equity. Said he’s bleeding cash but not too worried because immigration ensures it will be successful if "he can just keep holding on."

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

2 years

how will I know what I should have bought yesterday now?

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

5 years

My best CFA memory was 2 minutes before it started, a guy in the bathroom dropped his calculator into the urinal. Everybody saw it happen and we all knew what had to be done. He picked up that BA II Plus and walked right out.

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

3 years

My favorite crypto story is PonziCoin which described itself as “the world’s first legitimate Ponzi scheme” and encouraged people to buy and then “shill this coin heavily to your family and friends like a fucking sociopath.” It increased 300x before collapsing.

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

6 months

the only way $csu.to shares are getting cheap again

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

3 years

MUNGER JUST LET IT SLIP.

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

3 years

Launching A Hedge Fund

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

5 years

In 2017, Bill Nygren presented a number of adjustments to reflect $GOOG's real PE. Instead of 29x, his was 15x. "I've read a lot of arguments about the multiple the Google business deserves, but not once has it been below-market." I've tried to update it:

The Adjusted Bill Nygren Alphabet Valuation

Sheet1 "I've read a lot of arguments about the multiple the Google business deserves, but not once has it been for a below-market multiple." - May 31, 2017 The S&P today trades at 22x earnings. The...

docs.google.com

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

6 years

Charlie Munger and Li Lu interview in China (Aug 18, 2018)

Charlie Munger & Li Lu Interview by Weekly in Stocks (201808) Part1

Copyright of Weekly Stocks (证券市场红周刊), all contents are shared for non-commercial knowledge sharing purpose.

www.youtube.com

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

3 years

$FB 18.8x 2022 estimates (ex-cash).

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

4 months

$JD trading for less than its cash. I know you think it’s still overvalued.

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

7 months

my niece is going to fire me this year $DIS

Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

5 years

Instead of getting my 7 year old niece yet another toy for her birthday, I'm giving her one share in Disney that will vest when she turns 18. (This will also be her Christmas present). I'm pretty sure she will consider this her worst gift tomorrow.

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

7 months

gundlach presentation, very much worth watching (if you like macro stuff)

Grants 40th Anniversary: "Rates Can Never Rise" (Redux)

DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach, speaking Oct. 3, 2024, at Grant’s Interest Rate Observer fall investment conference, shares (1:31) his views on why fixed in...

www.youtube.com

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

3 years

$FB with 33% revenue growth? EBIT margins +400 basis points. -5% AH? What am I missing here. We already knew about IFDA. These are good results to me.

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

3 years

I'm convinced that 90% of people talking up the $FB metaverse bull case don't even own an Oculus.

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

3 years

everybody dunked on munger with $BABA but it's up 25% in less than a month

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

2 years

if $FB announced it was ending Reality Labs the stock would pop 20%

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

2 years

“We are running a deep value portfolio.” - @CathieDWood

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

7 years

$Snap IPO: Q: So you are a social network like Twitter? No. We make cameras too! Q: So like GoPro? Um No. Just give us Facebook's valuation.

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

1 year

Me: making fun of Buffett groupies. Also me:

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

3 years

$FB "Almost a fifth of Facebook employees are now working on VR and AR." ok, I'm going to buy an Oculus Quest 2...

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

4 years

$FB is at 22x earnings. The US 10 year is at 170x earnings.

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

9 months

Druck, Tom Lee, and all these guys below are going to be partying 2 hours from now. just accept it and you’ll be happier. $NVDA

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Trevor Scott . AI

@TidefallCapital

6 years

In honor of Prime Day, I'm giving away a $25 Amazon gift card to the best stock idea for the next 10 years: 1. Retweet 2. Reply with symbol and thesis

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