Michael Lopez @StatsbyLopez Twitter profile

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

10 years

Mean or median? http://t.co/Q6opRoyix8

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

2 years

Using @NextGenStats ball tracking data, Justin Tucker's game winning field goal crossed the upright with a y-coordinate (width of field) of 26.52. The exact middle of the field is y= 26.67 That is, if the uprights were half a yard wide, the kick would have still been good

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

3 years

Here are the path's that Patrick Mahomes (top) and Tom Brady (bottom) took before pass attempts in shotgun during tonight's #SuperBowl Red: complete White: incomplete

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

3 years

Roughly 15 Ravens players converged on the Titans logo after Marcus Peters' interception -> Fastest to logo: Anthony Levine ( #41 , 17.9 mph), Anthony Averett ( #23 , 17.7 mph) -> Big men moving: Derek Wolfe ( #95 , 15.2 mph), Pernell McPhee ( #90 , 14.4 mph) #RavensFlock

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

2 years

Dave Rubin

@RubinReport

2 years

I know a lot of people who regret getting the vaccine. Don’t know anyone who regrets not getting it.

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

4 months

Michael Pierce reached 15.0 mph on this pressure. Second fastest speed he's reached this year. Equivalent pace -- 4 minutes per mile

Nate Tice

@Nate_Tice

4 months

I was rooting Michael Pierce on

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

3 years

Where the 4 championship Sunday quarterbacks released their passes from in 2020, using @NextGenStats football tracking data #BUFvsKC #TBvsGB

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

4 years

Female sprinters will overtake male sprinters in 2156. Eventually both genders will run the 100m dash in no time at all.

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

3 years

Sum of Mahomes distance traveled: 468 yards Sum of Brady distance traveled: 37 yards Hah holy shit

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

4 years

Shane Battier’s explanation for embracing analytics is 💯

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

2 years

It's not just this kick -- Tucker is always pure down the middle. Here's @DataWithBliss 's plot from two years ago. Tucker leads the league in middle-of-the-upright accuracy

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

2 years

The 2021 NFL season set modern day records in: 4th-and-1 go for it rate (69%) 4th-and-2 go for it rate (39%) 4th-and-3 go for it rate (19%) Two point conversion attempt rate (11%) The revolution arrived and it was on your television

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

5 years

NFL kickers today: 37-yd FG 29-yd FG 36-yd FG 24-yd FG 31-yd FG 48-yd FG (force OT) 57-yd FG (game-winner) 47-yd FG 39-yd FG (force OT) 12-12 on extra points. No misses. Insane.

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

4 years

No one: Absolutely no one: Me: Here are the faces of the most accurate NFL passers in every one-yard grid over the last three seasons

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

2 years

Me: tosses a coin, it lands heads Brian Griese: see I’d have called tails

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

5 years

Offensive lineman trying to tackle alert.

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

2 years

"It's hard to win in the NFL"

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

5 years

Where each conference championship quarterback has released the ball from in 2018, relative to the line-of-scrimmage

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

6 years

These two approximations have changed how I view sports: - A best-of-51 NHL series is needed to match the NBAs best-of-7 - A best-of-75 MLB series is needed to match the NBAs best-of-7 From last night, a post on the postseason equivalence between leagues

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

5 months

Green Bay (+175% win probability added) on pace to be the luckiest NFL team of last three years Minnesota (-199% win probability added) on pace to be the unluckiest Each team is 6-6

Tom Bliss

@DataWithBliss

5 months

Net Win Prob Added for Week 13. Top plays of week 13: - DAL dropped pass on 4th and 2 with 1:08 left in Q3 (+20.5% for SEA) - CIN dropped interception which was deflected and caught by JAX for TD with 5:33 left in Q3 (+17.3% for JAX)

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

6 months

Garrett Wilson ran 176 yards on this play. Can't imagine that happens very often

Next Gen Stats

@NextGenStats

6 months

Jevon Holland returns a Jets Hail Mary attempt for a 99-yard interception return for a touchdown. Holland traveled 124.4 yards on the play, the most distance traveled by a ball carrier on a scrimmage play this season. Powered by @awscloud

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

4 months

One of our coolest findings - Snapping the ball late on the play clock is linked to lower EPA, especially in the first quarter on pass plays

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

11 months

With the #NBAFinals about to start, a throwback to our paper from 2018 -- the Denver Nuggets have the greatest home advantage in all of North American professional sport

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

5 years

Sports rule of thumb: when you hear a team or player is “x of their last y”, they’re also “x of their last y+1”

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

5 years

"What has sports analytics ever won?"

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

2 years

With MLB's postseason once again looking random, a reminder that current baseball and hockey series are not set up to reward the best teams

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

6 years

That quote is a decade old, but the league looks ready to listen to the professor. Today I started with the @NFL as their Director of Data and Analytics

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

2 years

Good lesson for the @NHL - this is what end of regulation tied games look like when teams don’t play for overtime

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@hayyyshayyy

2 years

Ross Colton with the go-ahead goal with 3.8 seconds left in regulation 👀

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

4 years

It’s been said before, but another shout out to all the impressive data viz being shared #dataviz

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

3 years

A loyal follower asked if play clock was related to sack rate. One could make that argument

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

5 months

This is neat from @DataWithBliss -- the dropped pass rate at night at Arrowhead is the only stadium/game time combination in the NFL over 10% @cheetah was right -- it's hard to catch in Kansas City at night

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

2 years

Shot, chaser

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

3 months

Here's how the NFL league office analyzed the equity of the new overtime format in 2022. This research was presented to owners & coaches as part of the rules change proposed by PHI (Jon Ferrari) and IND (Frank Reich), the two folks most responsible for the modification (1/n)

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

6 years

MLB umpires call balls and strikes in extra innings in order to get the game over with as soon as possible. With @BMMillsy

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

5 years

Jamaal Charles was something special. How yardage vs. expectation looks for recent RBs with at least 1000 carries

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

7 months

Diamondbacks data & analytics team can barely fit on one screen. Larger than any NFL team (to best of my knowledge)

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

7 months

📢📢 Ladies and gentlemen, the 2024 Big Data Bowl #BigDataBowl 📢📢

NFL Big Data Bowl 2024

Help evaluate tackling tactics and strategy

www.kaggle.com

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

2 years

The NHL's point system is making the rounds again today. Here's some thrilling end-of-regulation action that takes place under the current rules

Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

7 years

This is what the end of regulation looks like when the NHL gives the losing overtime team a point

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

5 years

🔎

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

4 years

4th-and-short (2 yds or less) go for it rates during Week 1 of the regular season: 2015: 32.0% 2016: 34.8%, 2017: 34.0% 2018: 44.8% 2019: 48.6%: 2020: 😍56.4%😍

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

4 years

Every quarterback's fingerprint --> that is, where they release passes from

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

4 months

Everyone doing jersey swaps. Need analytics staffers to start swapping quarter zips after a big game or the draft

CJ Fogler account may or may not be notable

@cjzero

4 months

Robin Lopez did a jersey swap with the Spurs mascot 😂😂

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

4 years

Through 64 NFL games in 2019: 547 punts Through 63 NFL games in 2020: 435 punts Trend-line has no punts in the game by 2025

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

5 years

A student asked today if data science was where you fit every possible model whereas a stats class was where you actually cared about the models and I'll be honest, I froze

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

3 years

It's the fourth year of the #BigDataBowl (sponsored by AWS), and we're ready to tackle the third phase of football - Special Teams. The goal of this year's event is to learn what makes for valuable special teams play -- what players execute best? What strategies lead to success?

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

5 years

With news of impending @BenjaminSWatson retirement, quick stats on one of the greatest effort-plays in NFL history. Watson covered ~98 yards in 11.4 seconds to knock ball from Champ Bailey. Top speed > 10 yards per second (21 mph) -- kick returner speed

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

3 years

No sport turns .05 xG situations into 0.8 xG situations quite like soccer

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

3 years

Great example of Simpson’s Paradox in the wild. Among all UK residents, mortality rate is 2.4x higher among vaccinated. But when broken into age groups, mortality rate is either 1.5x higher (<50 years old) or 3.5x higher (> 50 years old) among unvaccinated H/t Matt Brenneman

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

6 years

Link to my sports analytics class from a few years back, all materials using R

Stats & Sports class

Welcome to the homepage for class material for Skidmore College MA 276, “Sports and Statistics.” The course is designed for undergraduate students who have successfully completed an int…

statsbylopez.com

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

2 years

Factories for the National Football League: Quarterback: USC Running Back: Alabama Wide Receiver: Ohio State Tight End: Iowa Analytics: Simon Fraser (Penn and Duke a close second) #BigDataBowl

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

5 years

Where do your favorite ball carriers move when they get a handoff? Sonar charts -- popularized in soccer by @etmckinley -- are up on the NFL's Extra Point blog (using #BigDataBowl data!)

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

1 year

This was bothering me so I checked -- it's almost always preferred to be in a 2nd-1 than a 1st-10. And it's often better to be 2nd-2 than a 1st-10. Here's the average expected points by yardline for each of those scenarios

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

3 years

Summary and winners (College, Open, Honorable Mention) from the 2021 #BigDataBowl

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

4 years

So now what? Well, we know next to nothing about the secondary. So it’s your turn to tell us. Time for the 2021 Big Data Bowl #BigDataBowl

NFL Big Data Bowl 2021

Help evaluate defensive performance on passing plays

www.kaggle.com

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

2 years

There are 32 great NFL teams, but one reason it is exciting to see the Rams and Bengals in the Super Bowl: the consistent and public credit that both teams give to their analytics folk. This is uncommon but not unnoticed.

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

5 years

Amherst College is the #2 ranked liberal arts school in the country. It’s football coach just punted on 4th-and-2 from the opponent 32 yard-line.

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

8 months

This is an outstanding point by @RyanBrill_ NFL expected points models are all subject to selection bias. Better offenses make the red zone more often, so inferences on red zone tendencies overfit to better teams

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

2 years

Sarah Bailey. Super Bowl champion. @sarahrunbailey #SBLVI

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

4 years

When do NFL teams pass the ball? Pass rates by game minute and score differential

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

2 years

What a difference a decade makes. Teams were more likely to go for it on 4th-and-2 in 2021 than they were to go for it on 4th-and-1 in 2011

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

3 years

There were 0 coaches challenges during #NFL Week 2. That hasn’t happened since at least the 1999 season

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

1 year

Congratulations to the 2023 Big Data Bowl finalists and honorable mentions! #BigDataBowl

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

3 months

Congrats to the finalists, runner-ups, and honorable mentions from the 2024 Big Data Bowl! #BigDataBowl

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

4 years

I am happy for all of these people. The Dodgers might have the largest analytics staff in all of professional sport

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

6 years

My 4-year old offered me a quarter in exchange for a nickel and a few pennies. Seems early, but she's on track to becoming an NHL general manager

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

2 years

Things you love to see: here’s Brandon Staley with a shoutout to his analytics team for their work on fourth down strategy, to @peter_king

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

1 year

Want to save 100k as a sports analytics group? Hire a software engineer - but call them an intern software engineer. Boom.

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

2 years

Through three weeks, NFL games have been competitive but scoring is down to a ten-year low. Where did all the points go? We explore in our Extra Point blog

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

3 months

This is pretty cool -- the 49ers have a spot on the website devoted to each of their analysts

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

3 years

Alright I'll bite. @dmorey and @jessicagelman - how can you possibly justify $445 student tickets for Sloan 2022?

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

5 years

Copy and paste a sentence and it’s plagiarism. Copy and paste 200 lines of code and it’s data science.

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

2 years

95.5% was highest Falcons reached 99.5% was highest Rams reached Via

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

2 years

No announcers/league allocate skill to what is clearly luck quite like the NHL

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

3 years

Want a hint if an NFL team is about to run or pass? Check out where the running back lines up. Our Extra Point blog post is up (w/ @DataWithBliss )

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

8 years

Here's a list of #rstats packages, catered to those doing statistics in sports

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

2 years

This is a #BigDataBowl tweet RT if you are submitting to this year’s Big Data Bowl Like if you will be reading submissions to this year’s Big Data Bowl

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

4 years

We’re four years into player tracking data in football.

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

5 months

Drew Lock reached 18 mph on Kenneth Walker's touchdown run, per @NextGenStats Walker topped out at 16.1 mph

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

4 years

Dallas becomes the first team since the kickoff rule was changed two years ago to recover an expected onside kick and come back to win the game. Entering this weekend, teams attempting expected onside kicks posted a record of 0 wins and 110 losses

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

2 years

Sean McVay leads the NFL in unnecessary timeouts…

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

4 years

Identical Twitter polls, taken minutes apart -- responses are 80/20 in one, 45/55 in the other. If you take a Twitter poll, please make sure you understand sampling bias

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

4 years

You: “When will football analytics catch up to baseball analytics?” Astros, in 2016: let’s create an Excel-based app, which we’ll implement by banging a drum

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

3 months

Of 80 NFL playoff teams since 2018, the Chiefs just completed the luckiest run +57% win probability added on fumble recoveries alone

Tom Bliss

@DataWithBliss

3 months

Using our framework, 2023 KC had the most win prob added via luck of any playoff team since 2018. Most significant plays for KC: - BUF missed FG with 1:47 left (+18.7%) - BUF dropped 54 yd pass with 8:23 left (+18.3%) - Recovery of SF muffed punt with 2:42 left in Q3 (+15.6%)

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

3 years

@Mathieu_Era Hi Tyrann - Consider this your formal invitation to be a judge in the NFLs 2022 Big Data Bowl @NFLFootballOps

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

5 years

A few folks entering the Big Data Bowl have reached out in search of advice on how to learn R or Python to dive into player tracking data. A rough template of how I've responded #BigDataBowl

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

2 years

$100,000 is on the line, as is a trip to the Scouting Combine in Indy for an in-person 2023 #BigDataBowl As in year's past, we're partnering with @kaggle . Sign up and get the data here

NFL Big Data Bowl 2023

Help evaluate linemen on pass plays

www.kaggle.com

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

10 months

Cumulative rush yards over expected from 2018-22, using the @NextGenStats model -Nick Chubb has been worth ~ 200 yards per season over expected. - Several high profile RBs (Henry, Cook, Barkley, Zeke) outperformed expectation for a few years, until they didn't

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

5 years

Via @NextGenStats , Christian Wade reached 21.01 mph on his touchdown run, the second fastest ball-carrier speed so far tonight (Damon Sheehy-Guiseppi's PR ranked No 1)

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

1 year

The biggest part of the review of Horford’s foul on Butler turned out to be the time added back to the clock (2.1 to 3.0)

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

1 year

Thinking of this again tonite

Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

6 years

These two approximations have changed how I view sports: - A best-of-51 NHL series is needed to match the NBAs best-of-7 - A best-of-75 MLB series is needed to match the NBAs best-of-7 From last night, a post on the postseason equivalence between leagues

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

4 years

When @nnstats is a GM I hope she’ll offer @ScoutWithBryan a spot as an unpaid intern

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

3 years

Poland plays Senegal in soccer. 70% of respondents identified Senegal as the more athletic team when watching video 62% of respondents said Poland was the more athletic team when using pose/computer vision It was the same clip of the same game #nessis21 @GregorydSam

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

2 years

I would tweet at them and complain. Alas…

Aaron Blackshear

@aaronblackshear

2 years

Sloan showing their commitment to diversity in sports analytics

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

5 years

This week I presented a short tutorial on how #rstats can be used for NFL analysis. Here's what I shared with club analytics staffers

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Michael Lopez

@StatsbyLopez

4 years

As part of this year's upcoming Big Data Bowl, NFL Football Operations is launching a mentorship program, aimed at improving diversity in sports analytics #BigDataBowl