Squish @SquishChaos Twitter profile

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Squish

@SquishChaos

19 days

From @hkuppy 's letter Retail traders focusing in the $<200M market cap area can effectively avoid a large swath of professionals

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Squish

@SquishChaos

1 month

Market Worldviews - A thread on how I've been learning how to view markets Disclaimer: This thread has no stock picks, strategies, or systems. I talk about learning how to view markets, but I don't even really explicate how I view them. That's because I'm learning and my views…

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Squish

@SquishChaos

16 days

My $ETH momentum signal back in the positive. Since mid-march, longest momentum drought in a while. Last 2 instances were false positives, but noting that CT is quite exhausted. Next few days should be interesting

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Squish

@SquishChaos

1 month

So...what next? These articles do a great job of teaching a worldview. If you're interested in how this worldview could translate to taking risk - ie how to do what traders do, highly recommend these resources I'm currently sifting through 1) The @SinclairEuan & @therobotjames …

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Squish

@SquishChaos

1 month

This article is hilarious and a great example of what trading is about. @Gingfacekillah talks about this all the time, but sometimes examples really bring things to life. The article linked suggests (maybe) there is same-side reliability in coin flipping for (most) coin…

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Squish

@SquishChaos

14 days

Anyone else rooting for cocoa to fall because they want cheap chocolate?

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Squish

@SquishChaos

1 month

Honest to god the more I embody this video, the more money I make

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Squish

@SquishChaos

24 days

Finally building basic infrastructure to track transactions, performance, etc. I've been really lazy about this, but just impossible to take things seriously and also not track performance metrics, slippage, taxes, etc

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Squish

@SquishChaos

1 month

Obviously everyone on FinTwit is still here, but it's at least worth noting. The thing we're doing is hard and the act of doing it is making it harder to do. That's a really fucked up way to spend time if you think about it... One easy way of getting around that is to not view…

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Squish

@SquishChaos

1 month

Anyways, obvious disclaimer. This post is intended to be the thing I tell my friends I've been thinking/reading about. I am the opposite of an expert. I have no strong views. I don't work in this field. I've never taken a statistics or economics class beyond the 101 level. I…

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Squish

@SquishChaos

1 month

@BigBreakfastLob Well, I might be completely wrong and am very new to these concepts but... If you take 5 assets, and you have a forecast for their means and covariances, and you use that to get a set of weights that optimizes sharpe....so far you haven't taken on correlation risk. You've just…

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Squish

@SquishChaos

1 month

Next? - Read @KrisAbdelmessih 's posts on MoonTower about 'Measure, Don't Predict' in the context of the above articles. Go back to the articles above. Things will make WAY more sense. - Read @Gingfacekillah 's very short e-book on market efficiency. Now we're grounded in how…

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Squish

@SquishChaos

1 month

The more I journal, the more I realize how homogenizing social media is. Removing from phone, restricting after 9pm, and setting a strict 20min/d time limit. Hoping it helps. I do think I get a lot out of being here, but the downsides after a small amount of time are notable

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Squish

@SquishChaos

1 month

Still prefer Claude to GPT4. Claude isn't lazy, it's more thoughtful, more prone to correct me in productive ways rather than just agree with me and push me in my current direction. GPT4 doesn't know when to use code v. intuition to do a thing yet.

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Squish

@SquishChaos

25 days

@DakotasTwits I honestly find your enthusiasm and energy so infectious and inspiring Never stop dude, don’t let the world take that away from you Keep that same energy

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Squish

@SquishChaos

1 month

You are allowed to not have an active view Just keep to a small survivable risk neither buy nor short the move If someone else says they have edge buying the dip, doesn’t mean you have to do the same You’re allowed to just opt out and opt back in some other time

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Squish

@SquishChaos

1 month

Lastly, if you're interested in how to think about worldview construction - purely epistemologically - as a philosophical problem.... (ie - why is this not arbitrary? Why this worldview on markets as opposed to another one?) I highly recommend philosophy of science. Ignore…

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Squish

@SquishChaos

1 month

It’s an everything down day. Flattening VIX term structure… Hard to tell if we’ll get follow through, but this seems like real fear & risk re-rating. I think the cross-asset selling is jut broad portfolio de-risking

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Squish

@SquishChaos

22 days

@marketplunger1 Is there evidence they're not already long? I figured most CTA trend programs would've been long for the last month

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Squish

@SquishChaos

22 days

I'm dying

peepeepoopoo

@DeepDishEnjoyer

22 days

Ticker names is an easy edge. A simple ticker strategy would have 10x'ed your return on S&P over past 5 years. Example: Buy tickers that start in "N" and end in "VDA"

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Squish

@SquishChaos

26 days

This sideways low vol thing is freaking me out

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Squish

@SquishChaos

25 days

$VT is 5% from ATH, VIX is at 18. This isn’t a catastrophic panic, at least for now But It is fantastic practice even if it turns out benign. If you noticed the change in risk environment, adjusted exposures, etc here - bodes well for what you’ll do if panic does come

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Squish

@SquishChaos

1 month

Mean variance optimization seems like a priced risk premia related to 'correlation risk' rather than getting paid for diversification through a behavioral inefficiency around leverage aversion

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Squish

@SquishChaos

1 month

2. Market Efficiency isn't magical. It's cut-throat. market efficiency comes from somewhere, intense competition between traders to buy cheap and sell expensive. This means we can measure transient deviations of individual prices from fair value. The deviations are transient…

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Squish

@SquishChaos

1 month

3. The worldview on markets is scientific (as opposed to many, many approaches to markets which from a philosophy of science perspective could be viewed as pseudoscientific). By 'scientific,' I don't mean this approach is perfect or magically right and we should always have…

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Squish

@SquishChaos

25 days

@risk_biscuits Same. Ugh. Feeling thankful I didn’t rebalance into SVIX

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Squish

@SquishChaos

22 days

This is a great case study of how not to quant 1. Identify why the analysis is flawed 2. Evaluate how you'd find and measure S&P seasonality 3. Learn how to communicate an effect clearly without misleading Seasonality can be a legit edge. This analysis, however, is silly.

Tascha

@TaschaLabs

23 days

Market seasonality is an easy edge. A simple seasonal buy and sell strategy would have doubled your return on S&P 500 v.s. buy-and-hold over past 2 decades. Example in chart: buy in Oct, sell in Jan, buy in Mar, sell in May, buy in July, sell in July. All buying are done at…

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Squish

@SquishChaos

1 month

I am of the belief that all 5 of those resources take a unified worldview on how markets and knowledge in markets might work 3 things I really appreciate about their approach 1. Respect Market Efficiency Methods these traders refer too often use current market returns of a…

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Squish

@SquishChaos

15 days

Another $ETH whiplash. Honestly, OK. To destroy the YTD profit, would have to take another 58 of these losses without a hit Can I get a higher than 2% hit $ETH rate? I'll take that bet. Key is to avoid big losses along the way. Meanwhile copper position keeps running

Squish

@SquishChaos

16 days

My $ETH momentum signal back in the positive. Since mid-march, longest momentum drought in a while. Last 2 instances were false positives, but noting that CT is quite exhausted. Next few days should be interesting

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Squish

@SquishChaos

1 month

@choffstein @doodlestein Oh my gosh i thought he was joking before I saw this. Oh dear. (Fwiw, the lack of probability education in medicine - where clinical reasoning is literally 'base rate they have pneumonia + updating on [new info]' is...unfortunate)

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Squish

@SquishChaos

15 days

@BayouPhilosophy Publish these? I’d read

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Squish

@SquishChaos

1 month

Approaches that ignore everything we've learned are a bit suspicious. It's especially weird to watch people use Elliot Wave Theory to make bets on the dominance of AI, given the differences between the methods being used in the former and the latter... You're literally using…

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Squish

@SquishChaos

18 days

@macrocephalopod You sent them the circle packing book didn’t you?

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Squish

@SquishChaos

25 days

Learning from this. - trying to get off both twitter and TradingView. Increase building/coding and learning math as % of trading related time - Might try explicitly journaling on twitter to internalize key lessons - prioritizing building beta to monetize boredom - build…

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Squish

@SquishChaos

1 month

Approaches that I often see amongst retail quants involve trying to re-invent science. This is the case of the quant who after many experiments has created an 8 step method to backtesting without overfitting. It's actually really admirable and comes from a great place. The…

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Squish

@SquishChaos

25 days

systematics already de-risked to increased vol, but equity trend should mostly still be long due to longer lookbacks (if) we have another 3% down move, they'll start dumping and we'll move to the 200DMA fast. gonna punt 0.1% risk on this speculation in the name of learning

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Squish

@SquishChaos

23 days

@marketplunger1 But what if the large speculators are just nice people who read your research on copper grades? Dare to believe Brandon

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Squish

@SquishChaos

27 days

I think someone's systematically selling covered calls on $MSOS I think $MSOS relative strength to index here is notable I think I know nothing and am speculating wildly

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Squish

@SquishChaos

1 month

Viewed this way, it's obvious how competitive it is. The process of making money from market inefficiencies is watching inefficiencies get more efficient. That means if you're good at this and clear eyed, you watch your profit opportunity decay as you make money. Imagine every…

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Squish

@SquishChaos

17 days

@robertmartin88 Dude I followed you for quant but I’m so happy to see the philosophy

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Squish

@SquishChaos

1 month

@nope_its_lily What's your theory for why non-toxic dating apps are difficult? Seems like 'incentive to keep you on the app' issue is a local minima - if you could reliably match, people would join app > leave app But since it hasn't been done, I must be wrong. Just not sure why.

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Squish

@SquishChaos

25 days

@LogicalThesis Honestly, I view every drop relative to normal volatility. SPY typically moves 0.8% a day, and is down 5%. Lots of stocks that typically move 2-3% a day are down 15-25% I don’t see a large divergence

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Squish

@SquishChaos

25 days

In a drawdown since 4/3. Matches the biggest drawdown this year but very different. The earlier drawdown was amidst high vol exposure to raging up trending crypto - was worth it, didn’t blink an eye This drawdown is gradual fee burn from over trading. The slow death.

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Squish

@SquishChaos

1 month

@TradetroniX I think if you have 10 discrete systems, and you diversify, you’ll get benefit but not bc you’re diversified It’s bc the edge is continuous, and 1 continuous system subsumes all 10 systems. But diversification amongst 10 binary systems approximates 1 continuous Just my 2cents

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Squish

@SquishChaos

9 days

@LogicalThesis I think Jim Simons and Druck also won, but I think they were after Buffett? Always a lot to learn from studying the greats, and yet every great made their own way

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Squish

@SquishChaos

1 month

@NotQuiteMidlife @BigBreakfastLob Exactly - risk premia are also edges, but they're much lower sharpe bc they're so risky... framed this way it's much less attractive unless you're a large wealth management fund and you're combining a bunch of low sharpe edges and need a boost not worth it for a trader imo

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Squish

@SquishChaos

1 month

made a massive unforced order placement error. Lost 40 bps to market makers just like that Fml Guess you have to learn somehow

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Squish

@SquishChaos

1 month

@marketplunger1 Congratulations!!

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Squish

@SquishChaos

22 days

Sometimes I'll place a sell order at the mid, and get no action And then I'll move the order to the bid, and get filled at the mid It's like they identified me as dumb money but then forgot to rip me off. I must be losing somehow. Will collect more data.

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Squish

@SquishChaos

22 days

@Gingfacekillah Ya I’m pumped for 24/7 market. I think it’ll create way more opportunities than it destroys

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Squish

@SquishChaos

1 month

@LogicalThesis @base Rooting for you!

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Squish

@SquishChaos

19 days

@NotQuiteMidlife @hkuppy The adverse selection is real and needs to be overcome. But, for those who are selective - they get to select from prices set by less competitive traders, which is nice

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Squish

@SquishChaos

14 days

With uranium, copper, and gold down today, my escape from the $ETH crash isn’t quite as exciting as it might’ve been

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Squish

@SquishChaos

1 month

@Vertox_DF @pedma7 @lazy_jonas Ya, if you’re gonna do apples to apples, find an equally inefficient part of equities. Small caps, illiquid hyped stuff, etc

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Squish

@SquishChaos

11 days

@elhroz in the single stock space, this can also apply. If 2 stocks have the same multi-factor score (inclusive of vol as a factor), the one with highest raw volatility gets you more capital efficiency

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Squish

@SquishChaos

24 days

@yashkaf Congratulations!!

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Squish

@SquishChaos

1 month

@nope_its_lily Turnover would go down, but you could charge way more? If you thought there was a 1/5 chance that this date would lead to me never using a dating app again, what price would you pay?

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Squish

@SquishChaos

28 days

@DakotasTwits HECK ya!

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Squish

@SquishChaos

1 month

@BigBreakfastLob Ya, I'm just dumb and got filled at an illiquid pre-market price that gapped to fair price immediately at the open. Gotta be more careful with where I place my limits and more willing to not get filled

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Squish

@SquishChaos

13 days

@marketplunger1 $SCCO in an uptrend against copper was a banger. Meanwhile $GDX against gold is less inspired...

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Squish

@SquishChaos

24 days

@BigBreakfastLob Yup - like internal is Meta creating AI to stave off competition from someone else with a better AI based product; ie AI enabled persistence of status quo (just a lot of capital investment) External is Llama3 automating some mundane job changing society in a genuinely novel way

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Squish

@SquishChaos

25 days

@LogicalThesis The best strategy is the one you actually implement right? Ya twitter is weird, everyone tweets their takes and they have different time horizons and stuff. Fun to bounce ideas though

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Squish

@SquishChaos

16 days

@BanjoAtheist There is rain

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Squish

@SquishChaos

22 days

The signal I want to be trading v. the signal I'm actually trading

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Squish

@SquishChaos

29 days

Lol learning that my quite small $SVIX position sizing was probably still (slightly) too high Portfolio flat today is while maintaining modest risk exposure is more than I could ask for

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Squish

@SquishChaos

19 days

@BigBreakfastLob To be clear, free beta is fee alpha. If you can get it without negative loading somewhere else, it’s pure juice

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Squish

@SquishChaos

25 days

@LogicalThesis Ya I’m actually sorta playing a similar concept from the opposite direction? I cut all my crypto risk like a month ago and flipped into gold and copper (I think I got really lucky w the exact timing) Sometime soon I’m going to need to flip back and that’ll define my EOY pnl

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Squish

@SquishChaos

13 days

@BigBreakfastLob question is whether the momentum effect survives transaction costs of flipping?

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Squish

@SquishChaos

1 month

@stevehouf Err but if you're not everywhere in the forecast area at once, doesn't this end up resembling the chance that it rains where you are? Which is what we assume the forecast is telling us? 100% confident that 30% of the forecast area will see rain...meaning 30% chance I see rain.

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Squish

@SquishChaos

1 month

@therobotjames "A painting is not a picture of an experience; it is an experience."

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Squish

@SquishChaos

15 days

@marketplunger1 I remember seeing your post & thinking "I trade a momentum model. I know CoT has some signal, but that's not in my model. My model with CoT would be better than it is now... and yet, I have a momentum model. Gotta stick with what I know" Stuck with it, got lucky. So it goes.

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Squish

@SquishChaos

1 month

@SixSigmaCapital @LogicalThesis @ZaStocks Intuitively it seems weird to imagine analysts aren't assigning any value to Coinbase's crypto & VC assets when they're very not hidden, but honestly imo if crypto is running into COIN earnings, it'll probably pop

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Squish

@SquishChaos

30 days

@Architect9000 Eh, markets tell you chances relative to prior positioning. Helps to have a model for prior and current risk tho to put market effect into context Ie how much of Friday was pricing v crowding? Idk but it’s a good Q worth investigating

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Squish

@SquishChaos

15 days

@BigBreakfastLob What're you up too? We've got similar interests but - by virtue of that - I have no sense for what you're working on/towards haha

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Squish

@SquishChaos

1 month

@brian_mccl83296 @therobotjames @jagmavi That's not the point at all. The point is when it gets popular, the assumptions of the backtest break Simple thought experiment - what happens to forward correlation btwn 60/40 & trend if passive indexers all switch to $RSST & $RSSB to stack CTA on index exposure?

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Squish

@SquishChaos

19 days

@BigBreakfastLob There’s a decent skewness premia literature

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Squish

@SquishChaos

1 month

@EntropyChase Ya seems right to me. And if you do that you tradeoff volatility for sharpe in the most optimal way...but then people take the optimized portfolio and lever it up to SPX vol (for instance), and I think that the excess returns that come with that leverage are the priced risk that…

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Squish

@SquishChaos

1 month

@ohdearitsmandy depends a lot on whether the geopolitical risk realizes or not

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