French diplomat | Visiting fellow Washington Institute for Near East policy | 🔎 Iraq, Turkey, Lebanon | ex 🇫🇷 embassy in Baghdad | Personal account etc.
Rivalry or cooperation between Washington and Paris who have been pursuing separate efforts to avoid an
#Israel
-
#Hezbollah
war ?
A 🧵 based on my latest for
@WashInstitute
amid French foreign minister Séjourné’s recent visit to
#Lebanon
⤵️
If you understand Arabic, French or German, don’t miss this documentary on Latif al-Ani, a pillar of modern photography in Iraq 📷. Through his impressive career, a beautiful contemplation of what Iraq once was, what it has become & what it could be again.
ANALYSIS - Latest US operation against a Kataeb Hezbollah commander in Baghdad confirms that the tit-for-tat strikes between the US and the Iraqi militias follow an increasingly unpredictable pattern. Why ? Let’s look at the chronology of events. 🧵
1/
USCENTCOM Conducts Strike Killing Kata’ib Hezbollah Senior Leader
At 9:30 p.m. (Baghdad Time) February 7, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces conducted a unilateral strike in Iraq in response to the attacks on U.S. service members, killing a Kata’ib Hezbollah commander…
In this piece, I provide some keys to explain Iraq’s politicized supreme court rulings, of which Speaker of Parliament Muhammed Halbusi's recent ousting is only the latest example.
Highlights of a year in Iraq. 1/Seeing the Tigris and the Euphrates in so many shapes and locations: Mosul in the North, Basra in the South, where the two arteries of the country join and form the Shatt al-Arab and, somewhere in the middle, the marshes and their unique ecosystem.
For
@Grand_Continent
,
@ADenizeau
and I dived into the results of Turkish local elections. A thread on our main takes on the present and future of “Erdoganism”⤵️
(But we also talk about the surprise outperformance of the main opposition party, the state of the Kurdish movement…
Est-ce le début de la fin d'Erdoğan ?
Comment comprendre la défaite de l’AKP et la victoire de l'opposition ?
@SelnUys
,
@ADenizeau
signent une étude fouillée—plusieurs cartes et graphiques sur les leçons d'une élection historique.
À lire absolument.
Interesting statement from 🇫🇷
👉« France welcomes the decision by Iraq and the United States to engage in direct dialogue through the bilateral Higher Military Commission ».
🧵 Why does 🇫🇷 react to a seemingly bilateral US-Iraqi issue and why is her reaction positive ?
Passionnante visite de terrain à Sinjar où le déminage reste une étape indispensable pour le retour à une vie normale. Près de 6 ans après la défaite de Daech, les restes d’explosifs demeurent nombreux. Travail impressionnant d’
@ONG_HAMAP
et de son partenaire irakien SHO 👏 (1/2)
On the occasion of the launch of the 2nd phase of the Safer Sinjar project, a delegation including Mr. Paris First Counsellor to
@FranceBagdad
and Mr.
@AugJeanChristo1
Consul General of France in Mosul visited our site in the Sinjar district. Thanks to
@CdCMAE
of
@francediplo
In Tal Afar yesterday, we were invited to the Hidr Elias celebrations which mark the imminent end of the Winter and gather people from all over the governorate of Ninewa and all communities. They were held for the first time since 2014 (beginning of Daesh occupation).
Il n’est pas tjrs évident de rendre compte du dynamisme de notre diplomatie en Irak. Cette vidéo relève le défi. Sa sortie coïncidant avec la fin de ma mission là-bas, j’en profite pour redire combien j’ai été fière de faire partie de l’équipe
@FranceBagdad
. L’Irak me manquera 🌻
#ConfAmbass
| Découvrez l'action de l'Ambassade
@FranceBagdad
en Irak
➡soutien aux populations dans les régions libérées de la barbarie de Daech & appui au développement 🇮🇶
➡soutien à la jeunesse🏃♀️⚽️
➡lutte c/ changement climatique & perte de biodiversité
🎥03/23
@MinColonna
In the Middle East, the motto these days is simple : "it's the economy, stupid!" But is it really? A 🧶 on normalization dynamics in the region and their potential limits, inspired by what I heard at the ME Global Summit.
#MEGS2023
Diplomatic personnel in Iraq live under strict security protocols. Using Midjourney, an AI powered image generator, I created some pictures of what a normal stay could have looked like : 📷1 visiting Ur; 📷2&3 streets and squares of Baghdad; 📷4 coming back from grocery shopping
🧵 1/Our piece with
@BilalWahab
: continued restraint in Iraq most likely but numerous reasons for alarm amid fears of regional escalation and after a new US strike targeting Iraqi pro-Iranian fighters.
My piece for the
@WashInstitute
on how Europe’s divided reactions to the Hamas attacks and their aftermath could have a sobering effect on ambitions of “geopolitical
#Europe
”. I recall the initial communication chaos 1/
#EU
#Israel
#Gaza
RED SEA 🧵- The European Union is deploying a new naval operation in the Red Sea.
A thread on its significance and possible challenges based on my latest paper for the Washington Institute 👉
The EU is launching today the naval Operation EUNAVFOR ASPIDES to contribute to restoring freedom of navigation and protecting merchant shipping.
We are taking bold action to protect the commercial and security interests of the EU & the intl community.
I am very pleased to be joining Washington DC starting from September. First as a visiting fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy
@WashInstitute
, and then as a political advisor at the French embassy
@franceintheus
.
Was recently in Ivory Coast. Always fascinating to come across interactions between the MENA/Western Asia and other parts of the 🌍 (ofc often due to colonial history). It is said that this building used to be the first luxury supermarket in 🇨🇮 and was owned by Lebanese traders.
@ragipsoylu
Interesting coincidence : this comes 2 days after the EU deployment of a new mission to the Red Sea / Gulf of Aden. NW Indian Ocean is turning into an increasingly competitive area.
It is not always easy to show the dynamism of 🇫🇷 diplomacy in Iraq. This video takes up the challenge. As it has been released at the end of my mission there, I take this opportunity to once again express how proud I was to be part of the
@FranceBagdad
team. I will miss Iraq 🌻
#ConfAmbass
| Découvrez l'action de l'Ambassade
@FranceBagdad
en Irak
➡soutien aux populations dans les régions libérées de la barbarie de Daech & appui au développement 🇮🇶
➡soutien à la jeunesse🏃♀️⚽️
➡lutte c/ changement climatique & perte de biodiversité
🎥03/23
@MinColonna
Important piece by
@AlannahTravers
as this shift stays largely under the radar. Seems technical at first but the quiet phasing out of emergency aid in Iraq marks the end of an era and poses huge challenges to donors, the UN, NGOs and the 🇮🇶 authorities.
The Red Sea carries around 40 per cent of the trade between Europe and Asia and the ongoing disruption from Houthi rebels is damaging that.
Can the EU's Operation Aspides protect this vital trade route?
The flavors of Iraq will soon be available in English. A beautifully written (and illustrated) graphic novel by Iraqi-French journalist
@Feurat
who delivers a first-hand intimate testimony of Iraq’s trajectory from the last years of S. Hussein’s rule to the chaotic post-US…
Un jour, à Bagdad, au coeur d'une base militaire, j'ai dit à des soldats américains que je n'étais pas seulement français, mais irakien, aussi, que mes reportages avaient pour but d'informer les Français mais que j'emmagasinais aussi ces drames sur un plan personnel, une vérité.
First time France is calling for a ceasefire in such clear terms amid a humanitarian conference for Gaza held today in Paris.
“All civilians must be protected. We must work for a ceasefire and create in Gaza the necessary space for humanitarian actors”
@PaulTLevin
And fun fact : Turkish islamists used to be the staunchest defenders of US military presence in Turkey during the Cold War. Legend says they even prayed in front of the US 6th fleet which was facing leftist harassment. Other times, other manners 😁
💧
#WorldWaterDay2023
💧Quality work from
@ajlabs
if you are looking for thorough data on the extent of the water crisis in the MENA region writ large. Includes a saddening timelapse showing the disparition of the Sawa Lake in Southern Iraq. 🔗
Je suis très heureuse de rejoindre Washington à partir de septembre. D’abord comme chercheuse invitée au Washington Institute for Near East policy
@WashInstitute
puis comme conseillère politique à l’ambassade de France
@franceintheus
🇺🇸🇫🇷
Dans cet article signé
@helenesallon
, je donne qqs 🔑 pour comprendre les enjeux de la négociation irako-américaine sur le retrait militaire des 🇺🇸, ce que cela signifie pour la Coalition contre Daech et pour la France.
6/ Nature. Regal buffalos of the marshes of Chebayesh. Majestic mountains surrounding the Kurdish city of Suleymaniyah. The Dokan lake under a bright Sun, again in Kurdistan. A quiet little farm in Hamdaniya.
‘In a meeting on the sidelines of the 2022 Jeddah Security and Development Summit, Iraqi and Saudi delegations finalized an agreement for GCC countries to provide electricity to Iraq. The project, run through the Gulf Cooperation Council Interconnection Authority (GCCIA), will…
NEW: The success of bilateral projects between 🇮🇶Iraq and 🇸🇦Saudi Arabia—and 🇮🇷Iran’s apparent acquiescence to them—signals an Iranian nod to Baghdad’s central role in promoting diplomacy between Riyadh and Tehran.
Details👉
@amwajmedia
Emmanuel Macron is scheduled to visit Tel Aviv and Ramallah. A thread on how 🇫🇷 has been balancing its diplomatic efforts between European/Western unity and its own levers in the region and at the United Nations (1/6)
4/ Food. Being of Turkish descent, dolmas have been my personal favorite. I notice some variation compared to the Turkish version : for ex, stuffed onions (interested in knowing the manufacturing secrets behind this prowess). No picture here but Iraqi dates are 🥇.
Looking for a thorough read on the upcoming elections in 🇹🇷 ? I recommend this collective work of analysis & forecasting which includes an often overlooked scenario: split government as, whoever the winner, the next President could be deprived of a clear majority in Parliament.
3/ Hope. In Mosul’s museum, the antiquities destroyed by Daesh are being patiently repaired. Sometimes it looks like assembling a highly sophisticated puzzle. Almost a metaphor of Iraq’s return to peace, little by little.
Macron’s interview is also quite interesting on how France perceives Europe’s role and interests in the region.
➡️ When it comes to military action, he says that France acted under U.S coordination and in conjunction with the British to intercept the Iranian strikes (in…
Macron continues to be clearer than many of his counterparts on:
- Oct7 attacks triggered current war
- attack on “🇮🇷 diplomatico-military building” in Damascus triggered attack Sat night
- Gaza ceasefire still the priority
*deleted PT, misheard “famine” was on Sudan not Gaza
Hashd al-shaabi also known as Popular mobilization forces (PMF) - the Iraqi state body that brings together militias that fought against Daech, including pro-Iranian groups. Interesting meeting especially in this context.
Turkish FM Fidan met with Hashd al-Shaabi's Fayyadh in Ankara in October.
Revisit my
@amwajmedia
September-piece👇🏻
“Does Turkey have new approach to Iran-backed groups in Iraq?”
2/ Emotion while visiting places like Kocho, a Yezidi village where Daesh committed despicable atrocities, and Halabja where thousands of Kurds were gassed by Saddam Hussein.
Divided voting patterns among 🇪🇺 EU Member States 🇪🇺 following
#UNGA
vote on
#Jordanian
resolution :
✅ = France, Belgium, Spain, Portugal, Malta, Ireland, Luxembourg
❌ = Austria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary
The rest, including Germany, abstained.
#Israel
#Gaza
Interestingly the AI is not very accurate when it comes to depict iconic spots in Baghdad (📷1 Midjourney’s depictions of Tahrir square ; 📷2 Kahramana fountain according to Midjourney). In the first picture, the flag looks more Egyptian than Iraqi.
E. Macron on French role in countering Iranian strikes:
- French Rafale jets took part in interceptions to protect 🇫🇷 military presence in Jordan (note: part of the Coalition against ISIS)
- France acted under 🇺🇸 American coordination and in conjunction with the British 🇬🇧
This is awesome ! 🙌 Earlier this year, Hidr Elias celebrations and the Spring festival were held for the first time in many years. There is a real cultural revival in Mosul and in the Ninewa governorate as a whole. Shout out to my friend
@ayman__ALAMIRI
for the beautiful video
People of various Iraqi backgrounds and cultures came together at the Mosul Music Heritage Festival, held for the second time since the ancient city's liberation from ISIS
Reminds me of 2020-2021 and the sudden apparition of Ashab Al Kahf after Asaeb halted their attacks. Ofc this was before Asaeb’s “embourgeoisement” (they entered the government in 2022).
Same patterns over and over again.
After Kata'ib
#Hezbollah
vowed to temporarily halt attacks against US forces in order to "prevent embarrassment to the Iraqi government" another faction from the "Islamic Resistance in Iraq" under the label the True Promise legion threaten continuation of military operations. 🧵
First US casualties since the beginning of the war. Many questions to be clarified (intent to kill) but this is a major development. It certainly won’t help the regional situation and particularly Iraq’s stability + It could affect the Baghdad-Washington dialogue on US military…
On killing of 3 U.S. troops near Jordan border:
Iran-backed militant groups operating under nom de guerre the Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed attacks on three bases hosting US forces in Syria today:
Tanf, Shadadi and Rukban.
Tanf & Rukban are both near the Jordan border...
On the eve of the anniversary of the earthquake that obliterated entire cities in southeast Turkey and Syria last year, important follow-up by
@lcmporter
My piece for
@Independent
on the families whose loved ones disappeared in the Feb 6 2023 earthquakes, & have not been seen since.
“I spend a lot of time crying,” says Suna Ozturk. “I miss my daughter & grandchildren a lot. There is no purpose in my life any more.”…
6/ If this process goes to its term (not before months/years), it would certainly set an interesting precedent of an orderly transition/reshuffling of Western military presence in the region. But ofc it could be disrupted at any time unless the current rise in regional tensions…
4. Erdogan’s succession remains an open question as this election confirms the lack of alternative within AKP’s ranks. YRP’s Fatih Erbakan could be an external challenger. Or Erdogan could fin a way to run for a 3rd term despite the constitutional limitation. He has plenty of…
Interesting map by
@IFRI_
which dots Istanbul’s ´swing districts’ i.e the party that came first at the local elections in 2019 differs from the one who won the 2023 presidential ballot.
Reminder : 🇹🇷 mayoral elections are to be held on Sunday.
🇹🇷Les élections municipales turques se tiendront ce dimanche 31 mars, dernier scrutin avant plusieurs années. Tous les yeux sont tournés vers Istanbul et Ankara que l’
#AKP
souhaite reconquérir afin de renforcer sa mainmise sur le pays. Certains arrondissements d’
#Istanbul
sont…
Useful insights from
@SajadJiyad
: “Sudani has been keen on this meeting for over a year. It was finally scheduled after the White House conditioned it on the coalition behind the Iraqi government securing a ceasefire from anti-U.S. groups”. It remains to be seen whether this…
Next week PM
@mohamedshia
will meet
@POTUS
with security at the top of the agenda. This primer for
@CenturyIntl
looks at the key issues they will discuss and the risks to the Iraq-US relationship
Interesting arguments by
@ayayciog
on Turkey/Iran and Turkey/Russia comparisons:
-No powerful and autonomous religious hierarchy as there is in Iran
-No government oligarchy that has infiltrated the country like in Russia
-Turkey didn’t experience a revolution the way that…
Fascinating piece by
@SonerCagaptay
on a little-known yet deeply consequential sociological shift that has been reshaping 🇹🇷 geopolitical orientations. "Where
#Turkey
’s founding elites, who came from the Balkans felt attached to Europe politically and emotionally, the country's…
“A hundred years after being constituted by Ataturk, Turkey is settling in its place, much like a house settling in its foundations: in Anatolia, at the crossroads between the Middle East, Europe, and Eurasia.”
It remains to be seen if, like Lebanese Hezbollah, the Iraqi groups will also declare themselves ready to abide by the newly enacted Israel-Hamas truce.
My
@WashInstitute
colleague
@SelnUys
and I discuss the hitherto simmering military tit-for-tat between Iraqi militias and US forces which boiled over in the past 24 hours— the militias escalated their attacks by switching from drones to cruise missiles. 1
In Grand-Bassam, once the capital of colonial 🇨🇮, there are several abandoned buildings like this one. They don’t crumble thanks to strangler figs, a specific kind of tree that can cling on to building envelopes (they can also take hold on other trees).
Probably to be interpreted as a 🇺🇸 attempt to defuse tensions between Iraq and Kuwait after the Iraqi Federal Supreme Court repealed the 2012 bilateral agreement on navigation in the Khor Abdullah corridor which provoked a strong reaction from Kuwait and the GCC as a whole.
Maritime forces from 🇮🇶 Iraq, 🇰🇼 Kuwait and the 🇺🇸 United States completed a two-day trilateral exercise focusing on counter-piracy and maritime security in the Northern Arabian Gulf, Oct. 3.
Read more ⬇️
5/ In recent years, France has invested a lot of energy in her bilateral partnership with Bagdad. Shortly after his inauguration, Sudani visited Paris in January 2023. They signed a strategic agreement covering all areas including defense.
French foreign minister in Qatar reiterates call for “an immediate, lasting, and sustained humanitarian truce” as a first step that could lead to a ceasefire.
#Israel
#Gaza
#Europe
#France
#Gaza
I « Une trêve humanitaire, immédiate, durable et soutenue est absolument nécessaire et doit pouvoir mener à un cessez-le-feu. »
-
@MinColonna
, conférence de presse lors de son déplacement au Qatar.
@FranceauQatar
Hukukçuların bütünüyle hukuk dışı buldukları bir karar gerekçe gösterilerek Van Büyükşehir Belediye Başkanı seçilen DEM Parti adayına mazbatasının verilmemesi Van halkının iradesini tanımamaktır. Bu kabul edilemez. Seçimlerin siyasi maksatlı yargı kararlarıyla gölgelenmesine…
The intentions of the 🇺🇸 are another question. Is the priority to bring peace to the region? To re-anchor it in the US alliance system in the face of China's growing influence? Are these objectives compatible?
1. The state of the economy, notably the pensioners’ disappointment, played a key role in the defeat. While AKP maintained good coordination with its long time coalition partner MHP, it suffered from the rival islamist-populist YRP’s competition.
Also see this piece by…
2/Restraint
🔹Like 🇱🇧 Hezbollah, militias have become key political players and a war with the US would jeopardize their gains.
🔹Ayatollah Sistani’s cautious statement.
🔹Palestinians in Iraq and pro-Iran militias have a contentious history.
Tal Afar’s citadel was destroyed by Daesh. Built in the 16th century, the old Ottoman castle represents a tremendous loss for the city’s rich heritage. But the hill, on which it used to sit, still offers a scenic view.
First a reminder : US military presence in Iraq since 2014 is tied to the Coalition against Daesh. The fight against Daesh has been a top priority for 🇫🇷 and, as one of the main contributors to the Coalition, the Iraqi-US process is of utmost importance for her strategy in the…
3/Alarm
🔸Domestic rivalries between Shia groups—not only pro-Iran factions but also the populist movement led by Sadr.
🔸This could lead to politically motivated competition to “out-radical” one another.
🔸 Slip-ups, like unintended death of US soldier, cannot be ruled out.
3. The return to a more orthodox approach in economy is here to stay. But we very much agree with
@SonerCagaptay
’s pre-election analysis: Erdogan may want to intensify the “culture wars” in order to consolidate his base and win back his most conservative voters who fled to YRP.…
Turkey used to be a fairly tolerant place for LGBTQ+ individuals. The Ottoman Empire decriminalized homosexuality in 1858 and acceptation of transidentity was probably higher in the 1980s (see the case of singer Bülent Ersoy). It was never ideal but the trend is truly concerning…
A new digital series exclusive to TRT World, “True Colours” explores the untold stories of those who have been affected by the spread of gender ideology and the LGBT lobby. Coming soon to our digital platforms
@lcmporter
@Turkeyrecap
@cetinrabiaaa
@goncatokyol
In the meantime, since the publication of this, article, a major announcement came yesterday : HDP is not going to present a candidate. This is the real turning point in this campaign.
But the mission also aims to bolster the EU’s longer-term maritime strategy for which the Northwest Indian Ocean has been a constant priority. Aspides is thus an additional piece in a growing patchwork of European efforts to become more active and present in the area.
See this…
FRANCE - Messages from French Foreign minister following his tour in the region :
➡️ Upcoming Munich Conference (16-18 Feb) opportunity to coordinate European and Arab positions.
➡️ Paris willing to reconcile diverging EU positions while insisting on existing consensus (notably…
« Ce sera OTAN et Europe. Les Européens ont besoin d’une deuxième assurance vie. »
Défense européenne, Ukraine, Proche-Orient, lutte contre la désinformation…je reviens pour
@OuestFrance
,
@faznet
et
@gazeta_wyborcza
sur mes priorités au Quai d’Orsay. ⤵️
Analysis: The PKK's recent attack on Ankara could represent an escalation rather than a fundamental change in strategy
Under pressure from Turkey, is the PKK changing its tactics?
✍️
@wrodgers2
France regrets that the 🇩🇿 resolution calling for a ceasefire in Gaza could not be adopted, given the disastrous situation on the ground.
All hostages must be released now and a ceasefire must be implemented immediately.
France will remain committed at the UNSC to that end.
All the major initiatives in the region are being promoted under this angle: the normalization agreement between 🇸🇦 and 🇮🇱, logistics and energy corridor projects (incl. the India-Europe corridor), the Baghdad conference, the reintegration of Syria, the detente with Iran etc.
If allegations of US casualties are confirmed, it would be a first since the post October 7 rise in regional tensions. In any event, this and the latest targeted killings of high profile IRGC commanders in Syria are concerning steps further in the current escalation.
BREAKING - Base housing US forces in Iraq at Ain al-Asad hit with multiple ballistic missiles, US military official confirms.
Initial reports of 1 Iraqi security forces member seriously injured.
🇮🇶 Iraqi friends, friends of Iraq and/or gamers of the world 🎮, if you happen to visit Paris some time this year, don’t miss this exhibition : ´Baghdad: Rediscovering Madinat al-Salam, with Assassin's Creed Mirage’
🗓️ When ? From February 28 to November 10 to 2024.
📍Where ?…
Speakers also highlighted the concerning financial situation of several nations including Egypt, Tunisia, Jordan, and Lebanon (not to mention conflict-afflicted or post-conflict countries) as another reason to expedite economic initiatives.
The head of the US Central Intelligence Agency as well as top Egyptian, Qatari and Israeli officials have been in Paris on Sunday working towards a ceasefire in Gaza, officials close to the participants said:
2. On the other hand, another surprise of this election is the islamist New Welfare party’s breakthrough. The party came third and took 2 big cities : Yozgat in central Anatolia and the majority-Kurdish Urfa. Criticizing AKP’s ideological inconsistencies, YRP notably focused on…
This is how Turkish Islamist Yeniden Refah Party has campaigned against Erdogan government and denied it victories across the country by splitting the vote while Israeli foreign minister thinks Erdogan lost because of his attacks against Israeli gov’t