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Pavel Slunkin

@PavelSlunkin

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Policy analyst, visiting fellow @ecfr . Former #Belarus diplomat.

Joined December 2019
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
2 years
I am Belarusian and I stand with Ukraine.
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
7 months
I am 34 y.o. Belarusian living in exile in Poland. FIRST time in my life I will see a peaceful transition of power. To opposition. After democratic elections. With 73% turnout. My message to you - value and protect your democracy. You can't even imagine what a miracle you have.
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
8 months
How is started How it’s going
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
2 years
Вот по таким фото и нужно судить, чего мы сумели добиться к 21 веку. Не по Starlink, не по новым айфонам, не по MetaWorld, а по маленьким детям европейской страны, спящим в холодных подвалах, пока сверху на их головы сыплются бомбы. И ни одна страна в мире не может это остановить
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
1 year
Exactly 8 years ago today Putin, Merkel, Hollande and Poroshenko met in Minsk's Palace of Independence to negotiate ceasefire and peace in Ukraine after Russia's invasion in 2014. I was BY diplomat then and worked with the UA delegation. Here is my thread about that night.
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
2 years
Ещё пару слов о том, что «Лукашенко - это выбор беларусов». Политзаключённые в Беларуси (их более 1,1 тыс) протыкают себе горло шариковыми ручками и режут животы прямо во время «судебных процессов», пытаясь себя убить. Вот так сейчас выглядит выбор беларусов.
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
10 months
I know that many journalists and editors-in-chief follow me here. This short thread is for you. Please remember that when you call Alexander Lukashenko the “President of Belarus” this is neither true, nor correct. And this misleads your reader. Some facts further…
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
10 months
Many rumors surrounding the sudden disappearance of the Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang. Of course, I don't know where he is or what is happening to him. Instead I will share my impressions of our meeting and working together in 2015.
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
2 years
A few words about the resistance of Belarusians to the Russian aggression in Ukraine. Thread.
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
1 year
I lived in Ukraine until Russia invaded it again on February 24, 2022. I don't know when and where this story will end, but I wish Ukraine to win. And it definitely will.
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
2 years
Соловьев про большую войну в Европе: «Сядем в землянку! Нам не привыкать». Тем временем землянка Соловьева на озере Комо в Италии.
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
1 year
France's President Mr Hollande looked like he didn't know what he was doing there. So he chose the simplest strategy - followed Angela Merkel and her instructions. You can easily read it even in the photos from that night.
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
1 year
The honeymoon period in the relations between Belarus and the West ended in 2020, when Lukashenka rigged elections, brutally cracked down the protests and political prisoners again appeared in the country (first time since 2015). I resigned from MFA in protest and joined @ecfr
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
1 year
Nobody expected the negotiations to last that long and the Palace started looking like this.
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
1 year
Many diplomats asked me about this photo: "What protocol rule did you apply to assign the place for flags and presidents? This is no alphabetic, no cadence order". Lukashenka had his own patriarchal logic - "lady in the center (the best position), Poroshenko and Putin separated"
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
1 year
My friend & former colleague @PMatsukevich who worked with Merkel that night and who resigned in protest in 2020 had to flee from BY too. We both work as policy analysts now.
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
10 months
Perhaps for the first time in months, he was completely honest with me: “In Beijing, there are several hundred people rowing behind me for my position. So, if I don't do this, someone else will."
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
1 year
Poroshenko looked exhausted. He had almost no sleep the night before Minsk and was to arrive to Brussels for the EU summit right after the talks in BY. He regularly called to Ukraine to get an update from the front and specifically from Debaltseve that was being heavily attacked
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
1 year
A little later I moved to Ukraine, the country that I supported so much since 2013, worked with during the Minsk talks and that became my second home after I had to leave my Homeland.
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
1 year
After the first round of talks the heads of delegations finally came out for a group photo and Lukashenka invited the delegations for the dinner. Hollande happily agreed, but Merkel cut him off abruptly saying "no time to have dinner, we start working". And they went back to work
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
1 year
The talks lasted almost almost 17 hours. It was a hard marathon for everyone. But Putin had his own "doping" from the host country. He was the only one who had a room with a bed right in the Palace. Several times he left the table looking tired and came back fresh after some time
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
1 year
Lukashenka didn't recognise the annexation of Crimea and cautiously stood up for the territorial integrity of Ukraine. This let him present Belarus as a relatively neutral country that can suit for negotiations purposes.
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
1 year
The delegations arrived in Minsk on February 11, 2015. And you can easily guess who was disrespectfully late.
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
1 year
Let's first add some context here. The Normandy format meeting in Minsk attracted enormous attention to Belarus that was gradually getting out of international isolation and surpisingly took a rather neutral stance on the war.
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
1 year
My other friend @A_Shraibman worked as journalist during the talks. In 2021 was labelled "extremist" and destroyed by Belarusian authorities, jornalists were jailed. Artyom managed to flee to Ukraine too.
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
1 year
Not many people know, but Lukashenka stroke iron while it was hot and even wanted to get himself at the negotiations table. This was of course blocked by Germany and France and he finally gave up. Later he will say that his role that night was to "bring coffee and ammunition"
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
1 year
Merkel and Hollande landed in Minsk almost at the same time and Germany's Chancellor asked to meet before they move to the Palace. They met in a plane. In the Merkel's plane, of course. In Palace they arrived together too.
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
1 year
You all know about the Minsk agreements signed that night (if you don't, please, read this thread by @DumoulinME here: ) So, I will end this thread with my personal story after these talks and how the roads of life can intertwine.
@DumoulinME
DUMOULIN Marie
2 years
Alors non, en fait, les accords de Minsk ne prévoyaient pas ça. Petit sur🧵 ces accords, sans doute plus pour l'histoire qu'autre chose (mais si ça peut aider à entendre moins d'âneries proférées doctement, ce sera toujours ça!). 1/9
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
1 year
Belarus Foreign Minister Makei died in November 2022. Merkel, Hollande and Poroshenko are no longer state leaders. Lukashenka remains in Palace until now. He "brings ammunition" to the war against Ukraine now literally, not figuratively
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
2 years
Глава погранкомитета #Беларусь А.Лаппо заявил, что не исключает, что Польша может "захватить белорусского пограничника". Кто-нибудь может объяснить, зачем Польше беларуский пограничник? Посмеяться с его зарплаты? Показать жизнь в ЕС, куда ему запрещено ездить? Ваши варианты?
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
3 months
Belarusians joined solidarity events with Ukraine in more than 20 cities worldwide
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
1 year
In @ecfr I met @DumoulinME who was dealing with the Minsk agreements when she worked for the France MFA. And @GresselGustav who has been covering the war and Minsk process for many years.
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
2 years
15/ Anti-war sentiment and resistance actions are one of the reasons why Lukashenka has not yet sent the Belarusian army to Ukraine. End.
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
2 years
8/ This is a map of railroad sabotage actions. The partisans have been blocking the movement of Russian military equipment to Ukraine by rail. Russia had to switch to air transport because of this
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
2 years
Любимая цитата из фильма @yurydud от беларуса, который перелетел через границу на параплане: «Меня не возьмёте. В воздухе я решаю!» До мурашек.
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
1 year
In 2021 I met Pavlo Klimkin, ex-Foreign Minister of Ukraine. This happened for the first time since our first meeting that night in Minsk in 2015.
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
10 months
This is not my personal view or analytical assessment, but an official position of dozens of states. After rigged elections in 2020 the EU, its member states, USA, UK, Canada, NZ, Ukraine and many many other countries don’t recognize him as the legitimate president of Belarus
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
2 years
11/ Several Belarusian battalions are fighting for the freedom of Ukraine. They are the first national battalions in the Ukrainian army. Belarusian soldiers died, including defending Bucha.
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
2 years
10/ Belarusians massively share information about the deployment and movement of Russian troops and equipment. Information about the departures of Russian war planes is immediately published. This allows the Ukrainian air defense systems and the army to be ready for attacks
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
2 years
Режим Лукашенко превратил мою страну в страну-агрессор. И я не знаю, как нам всем теперь с этим жить. Передаю привет бывшим коллегам и знакомым, которые «просто делает свою работу» или «не интересуется политикой». Слава Україні!
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
10 months
If you think that the fight for freedom by Belarusians deserves some respect this is a good chance to show your support. Thank you!
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
10 months
Since then no Ambassador of these states has presented credentials to Lukashenko so as not to recognize his legitimacy or call him president in official documents
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
2 years
Сегодня день рождения Александра Лукашенко. Пусть все пожелания изменнику сбудутся!
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
10 months
My humble recommendation for you is to call him “illegitimate president”, “self-proclaimed president” or just “ruler”, “dictator” and so on. This does not contradict the principle of journalistic neutrality and reflects the reality more accurately while not misleading your reader
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
10 months
He surprised me with his excellent English and how his subordinates were afraid of him. We briefly discussed the visit and plans for today. He was eating traditional Chinese noodle soup. Very, very, very (!) loudly (no exaggeration here).
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
2 years
Размова з кіроўцам таксі: - А на якой мове вы размаўляеце? - На беларускай - Ааа, зразумела. А то я зразумець не магу, гучыць неяк знаёма - А вы адкуль? - З Беларусі
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
2 years
Присвячується всім критикам Тихановської з України. Цю програму їй перед виборами 2020 року приписувала пропаганда Лукашенко. З 2022 виглядає інакше, правда? :)
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
10 months
Some parliaments of the EU states like f.ex. of Lithuania and Latvia even adopted special resolutions underlining their official position on the issue @LithuaniaMFA @Latvian_MFA
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
2 years
Сьогодні – день народження Олександра Лукашенка. Нехай усі побажання імениннику здійсняться! 🇺🇦
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
2 years
12/ Belarusians have created dozens of initiatives to support the Ukrainian army and Ukrainian refugees. Thanks to them, the Ukrainian army has received some new vehicles and weapons, they help refugees financially and provide medical, psychological support and service assistance
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@PavelSlunkin
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2 years
6/ Independent polls show that only 3% of Belarusians want the Belarusian army to enter the war with Ukraine on the side of Russia.
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
10 months
And here is yesterday’s @OSCE parliamentary assembly resolution where Lukashenko’ regime is called “illegitimate”. The Council of Europe has previously adopted a resolution with the same position @coe @oscepa
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
2 years
9/ Belarusian cyberpartisans attack databases and train management systems, websites of state institutions, etc. @cpartisans
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
10 months
It looked very surreal. Chinese diplomats walked up the stairs of the museum, counted the steps and asked: “When will the solemn music turn on? What step will the Chairman (Xi) step at this moment? Will it be this one? Or that one? Are you sure?!".
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
2 years
14/ But even inside Belarus, despite police persecution, Belarusians help Ukrainian refugees: they provide them with free services, help with housing, evacuation to the EU, and collect money for them.
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
10 months
His “illegitimacy” is not just a word in a political statement. Lukashenko does not represent the will of the people of Belarus. This is proven everyday by the state terror by his regime against them
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
2 years
Рабіце так, а не Твітар-срачы
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
10 months
There are 1497 internationally recognized political prisoners in Belarus now. The real number is much higher
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
2 years
4/ In 2021, civil society was almost completely destroyed in Belarus. Even organizations that were involved in protecting the rights of disabled people, ecology and biodiversity were liquidated. Leaders arrested or fled.
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
2 years
3/ The last mass protests were crushed back in January 2021. Propaganda/state TV calls for the killing of opponents. However, Lukashenka has not become more popular (having about 30% support). His power rests on Kremlin’s support, loyal police and nomenklatura + total repression
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
10 months
You can also see his illegitimacy in polls. Belarusians are against the war in Ukraine, against Russian nuclear arms in Belarus and demand change. While Lukashenka welcomes Russian troops and Wagner war criminals to the country and has turned Belarus into an aggressor state
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
2 years
2/ Torture and beatings that shocked the world in August 2020 have not disappeared. They have become even more cruel and large-scale. Some political prisoners tried to kill themselves right during the trial: by slitting their stomach or piercing neck with a ballpoint pen
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
10 months
Our everyday negotiations felt like Groundhog Day. We ended them late in the evening, agreed on all the protocol nuances, but the next day the Chinese colleagues again asked for a meeting. And we discussed the same thing again. And so day after day.
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
2 years
Президент Украины вчера сказал, что Лукашенко - это вопрос беларусов и воообще не его дело. Сам же Зеленский взывает к Западу словами «вы следующие». Так вот. Не может быть никаких «не наше дело», когда речь идёт о войне. Неважно, воюют диктаторы со своим или с соседним народом
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
3 years
2 года назад Министр иностранных дел Беларуси Владимир Макей дал большое интервью 5 негосударственным СМИ. Сейчас все они заблокированы в Беларуси. 2 из них признаны экстремистскими. Журналисты с того интервью в тюрьме, в вынужденной эмиграции либо под подпиской о невыезде.
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
2 years
13/ An important feature is that these initiatives are predominantly in exile since 2020. They are led by the same people who have proven themselves 2 years ago.
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
2 years
1/ After 2020 and an unprecedented wave of repressions, several hundred thousand people have left Belarus. Thousands are in prison for political reasons (see the map)
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
10 months
When Xi finally flew back to Beijing, I approached one of the Chinese diplomats (subordinates of Qin Gang) and asked him: “What was all this for? These months of useless negotiations about the same thing. This game of arithmetic with steps at the museum at night?".
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
2 years
5/ In such conditions, the war found Belarusian society. The illegitimate Lukashenka has made Belarus a co-aggressor state, and its citizens are seen as traitors and occupants by the international community.
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
3 years
Прилетел в Берлин. Зашёл пообедать в иракский ресторан. Собрал официантов вместе и рассказал про то, как их сограждан обманывают контрабандисты, обещая через Беларусь доставить в ФРГ, а потом кидают. Попросил, чтобы предупредили своих родных и друзей. Чувствую себя невероятно/ым.
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
2 years
Это Киев сегодня ранним утром. Я хочу, чтобы все россияне и беларусы, когда будут смотреть на себя в зеркало, каждый раз видели вот это. Это результат нашего коллективного безразличия, соглашательства и молчания. Нет войне!!!
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
10 months
At 3 am, I was sure only that I wanted to sleep, and just pointed to a random step. As you guessed, tomorrow the music turned on at a completely different moment
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
2 years
Калі вы нешта хочаце даказаць ці растлумачыць спадарыне, проста пачытайце, як яна ставіцца да сваіх жа пераможцаў з Украіны. Ёй “діла нема” нават да іх меркавання. Чаго вы чакаеце? Эмпатыі? Павагі? Лепш паберажыце нервы і працягвайце падтрымліваць Украіну і Беларусь
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
10 months
Let me start by saying that the Chinese protocol is a huge machine that employs hundreds of diplomats. The entire Protocol department of Belarus then consisted of 11 people. This is also the reason why a young dilomat like me had a chance to work with Qin Gang and other CH VIPs.
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
2 years
У Каталіцкай царквы Беларусі забіраюць самы вядомы касцёл нашай краіны - Касцёл Святога Сымона і Святой Алены ў Мінску (вядомы як Чырвоны Касцёл). У мяне ў сувязі з гэтым толькі адно пытанне Ватыкану: "Ну што, дапамагло Вам уручэнне даверчых грамат?"
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
1 year
When I am asked if regret my resignation, I show this pic of @StefanishynaO after UA obtained EU candidate sts. If your diplomatic work doesn't make you feel happy and proud, it has no sense. It can bring money, comfortable life, status, but this has nothing to do with diplomacy
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
10 months
To be honest, we could save a lot of time. Because when Chinese diplomats didn't like something, they called Beijing. And later Beijing called Lukashenka's administration. Surely, almost any whim of China's leadership immediately became a new arrangement.
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
10 months
The next morning, I had breakfast together with Qin Gan at the "Beiging Hotel" (the Chinese built it in Minsk, among other things, in order to receive large delegations from the PRC).
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
10 months
Wild examples of RU propaganda narratives are often published here. But you have never seen quotes from the Belarusian TV. This is unfair. RU propagandists look like sweet summer children against the backdrop of their BY colleagues. A thread with translated quotes from the video
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
10 months
At 2 am (!!!), at his request, my colleagues woke up the deputy director of the museum and asked him to arrange another excursion to the museum for the Chinese protocol. Pic. Museum of the Great Patriotic War (World War II)
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
1 year
Why Eastern Europeans never smile. Explanatory tweet
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
10 months
Despite the fact that there is no concept of “state visit”(the most honorable type of visit) in Belarusian protocol practice, Chinese diplomats called Xi’s visit that way. The Chinese Embassy even bought dozens of huge advertising banners all over Minsk to promote it this way
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
2 years
Прожить жизнь так, чтобы Зянон не назвал агентом.
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
10 months
He then headed the Protocol Department of the Foreign Ministry and came to Belarus as part of a delegation led by Xi Jinping. You can spot him in this picrure. Or us both in this video
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
1 year
Warsaw. Right now
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
10 months
The first day of the visit ended very late. And on the second day, Xi planned to visit the Museum of the Great Patriotic War. At 2 o'clock in the morning, Qin Gang decided to once again check the readiness of the museum to meet his boss.
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
1 year
Пра тое, што паўстанне 1863 значыць для нашага народа, беларусы паказвалі ўжо вельмі шмат разоў. І асабліва яскрава ў 2019 годзе Ні Масква, ні Лукашэнка нічога з гэтым зрабіць не змаглі. Не атрымаецца і ў новых аматараў цэнзурыраваць гісторыю Беларусы шануюць сваіх герояў
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
10 months
Preparations for Xi's visit began a few months before he arrived in Minsk. Chinese diplomats persistently came to the Foreign Ministry literally every day. We discussed exactly the same protocol aspects of the visit several dozen times
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
2 years
@kaz80mail Вот здесь можете почитать
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
2 years
If one could imagine the worst way of solving the migrant crisis at the BY-PL border, this would be discussing it with Lukashenka, who engineered it exactly for this purpose. And do it on Putin’s recommendation, who backs him. Angela Merkel has just succeed in both.
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
3 months
“Elections” in Belarus. 1984 vibe
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
2 years
Меланія Падаляк распавядае Мікалаю Аўтуховічу, што ён “терпіла йобани»
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
2 years
Ноябрь 2020 и ноябрь 2021. В стране многое изменилось, но отношение к людям осталось прежним.
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
10 months
Under pressure from China and under the temptation of Chinese investments, Minsk gave in and agreed to call the visit exactly “state”. Here is the screen from the Lukashenka's website
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
10 months
Sviatlana @Tsihanouskaya , independent media and NGOs of Belarus in exile are hosting a Solidarity marathon with political prisoners of Belarus The marathon will end in 11 hours. You can donate here 1475 political prisoners in Belarus. Every cent matters
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
4 months
Explainer for what Belarus is today
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
1 year
Тым часам гэты герой, рэйкавы антываенны партызан, спыніў ажно 39 цягнікоў. Яму прастрэлілі калені падчас арышта
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@PavelSlunkin
Pavel Slunkin
10 months
Like if the head of Belarusian protocol should go up and greet Xi when his plane lands. As you can see here, Chinese were against
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