PPG @PPGMacro Twitter profile

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PPG

@PPGMacro

1 year

China rates falling sharply. Rest of the world ignoring for now. Hmm...

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PPG

@PPGMacro

2 years

US bank deposits falling. A rare event. Money growth is zero YTD.

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PPG

@PPGMacro

2 years

Liquidity is evaporating. Reserve balances at Fed banks fell by $172bn by 20 April. 2nd biggest weekly fall. Wondering why equities getting hit? See 2nd chart. And reserves will be down to $3trn by year-end.

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PPG

@PPGMacro

2 years

Housing. Surprise, Surprise! Mortgage purchase applications collapse. Sales numbers are next...

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PPG

@PPGMacro

2 years

Whatever the CPI number is today inflation is peaking. Base effects will impact sharply in the coming months. Thread

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PPG

@PPGMacro

2 years

TRUCKED - Trucking jobs saw the biggest monthly fall since April 09. Always lead payrolls. Nuff said.

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PPG

@PPGMacro

2 years

The 30y Mortgage rate has surged by 50% since the end of the year. Now the highest since 2011. The biggest 3mth rise since q2 1987. But houisng bulls think there will little impact.... 3mths later: Black Monday

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PPG

@PPGMacro

3 years

Evergrande. International holders of 03/22, 04/22 and 01/23 bonds.

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PPG

@PPGMacro

2 years

Only the biggest nominal $ monthly fall in new house median price. Ever.

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PPG

@PPGMacro

2 years

While the West obsesses about inflation and rate hikes too many are ignoring China where CPI and PPI undershot forecasts for the past 3 months. PPI still high at 9.1% but with base effects is set to fall sharply. Will be down YoY by Q4. #China #inflation

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PPG

@PPGMacro

3 years

China - It's not just Evergrande. Contagion spreading. Check out Guangzhou R&F 2023 $ bond. #contagion #china

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PPG

@PPGMacro

2 years

US 30y mortgage at 4.2% yesterday. Up 1% this year. Fastest rise since taper tantrum in 2013. Housing affordability in Nov was already the worst since 2008. Yet many still think housing will stay strong. Oops.

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PPG

@PPGMacro

8 months

Is China really selling US Bonds? No. Mainland holdings of long-term US securities (USTs & Agencies) fell in 2022 But are not far off where they were in 2016, post-devaluation. However, holdings in Belgium (Euroclear a proxy for China) have increased. The combination of…

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PPG

@PPGMacro

3 years

When @ChinaBeigeBook tweets stuff like this you know it's serious. They rarely agree with the press who are more usually wrong.

China Beige Book

@ChinaBeigeBook

3 years

"Signs of stress are appearing in 🇨🇳 banks’ loan books, as more of their corp loans to developers go sour...“We haven’t seen such a high level of bad #property loans in over a decade” Balance sheets only provide visibility into the tip of the NPL iceberg

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PPG

@PPGMacro

2 years

Yield curve implosion. Bond yields say Powell is wrong with 30y yield at the lows of the day and the 2s30s 1y forward OIS is now almost 10bp lower at -39bp. The curve says recession... #FederalReserve

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PPG

@PPGMacro

1 year

Subprime auto loan delinquency 60+ days is surging.

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PPG

@PPGMacro

2 years

US Housing - Homes under construction relative to the 25-54 year-old working population. Higher than at the peak of the housing boom....

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PPG

@PPGMacro

2 years

China exports to the US are over $600bn a year. EU roughly $400bn. Total trade with Russia is $140bn. How long will Xi be Putin's best friend?

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PPG

@PPGMacro

1 year

Job openings in construction...Oops

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PPG

@PPGMacro

3 years

The street, yet again, completely wrong on China PMI. All order data weak with non-manu new orders collapsing. Only weaker in lockdown panic in Feb 2020. Weaker growth coming. #china #recession

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PPG

@PPGMacro

3 years

Never noticed this one before, but the fit of the Hang Seng agisnt 30y UST is staggering. #china #bonds

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PPG

@PPGMacro

1 year

Credit markets ignoring what banks are doing.

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PPG

@PPGMacro

3 years

US Small Business Outlook falls to lows at -37. Only worse in November 2012. Building back better?

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PPG

@PPGMacro

1 year

SVB & First Citizens - markets are relieved about the acquisition. Good. Not enough attention is being paid towards the real nasty of the deal. It's the 23% discount on the $72 billion of loans that First Citizens is taking. Now think about all the CRE bank loans out there...

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PPG

@PPGMacro

1 year

One of the most negative signals in yesterday's ISM Services PMI was the fall in new orders and the rise in inventories. Now -8.5. A classic recession signal. Econ 101.

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PPG

@PPGMacro

2 years

Shelter is driving US CPI, but it is cracking rapidly. More cities with lower rents happening and then there are prices. New homes for sale/sales ratio at June 08 levels. Then compare that with prices...

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PPG

@PPGMacro

2 years

The most successful KGB sleeper agent in history...

‘Merkel’s toxic legacy’: Germany nears a reckoning over ties to Russia

It was not quite four months ago that Angela Merkel packed up the giant wooden chess queen that stood in a corner of her office and removed the silver-framed p

www.thetimes.co.uk

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PPG

@PPGMacro

2 months

Because this time is different?

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PPG

@PPGMacro

3 years

US Treasuries 10y10y now at 3.20%. Powell may say that financial conditions are still accomodative but this represents a huge tax on the rest of the world.

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PPG

@PPGMacro

10 months

Ignore the pandemic. Redbook goes negative for the first time since the GFC. And this is a nominal number.

Don Johnson

@DonMiami3

10 months

Redbook Retail sales goes negative for the first time since the COVID collapse. -.4% year-over-year shrinkage in retail sales.

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PPG

@PPGMacro

1 year

Remind me. Who liberated Europe and sacrificed their sons on the beaches of Normandy?

Mike Bird

@Birdyword

1 year

Macron: “Is it in our interest to accelerate [a crisis] on Taiwan? No. The worse thing would be to think that we Europeans must become followers on this topic and take our cue from the U.S. agenda and a Chinese overreaction”

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PPG

@PPGMacro

4 years

@DiMartinoBooth @CNBC But it’s fine to bail out badly managed companies who wasted their cash on buybacks and CEO pay

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PPG

@PPGMacro

1 year

Freight activity is like an ECG of the economy’s heart.

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PPG

@PPGMacro

3 years

You can no longer see daily traffic and metro data for China. However, this one slipped through : Highway passenger traffic. Incredibly soft and pre-Delat spread. Au revoir. #recession #china

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PPG

@PPGMacro

8 months

Since 1949, every time US unemployment has clearly picked up the US economy has suffered a recession.

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PPG

@PPGMacro

1 year

Thought I'd tidy the chart up and do monthly change. Note the 6mth average. It's been negative since August.

Michael A. Arouet

@MichaelAArouet

1 year

Everybody’s focus is on NFP which are lagging, temps are a much better leading recession indicator 👇 It’s getting closer.

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PPG

@PPGMacro

3 years

Money growth is decelerating rapidly. It's been "transitory". And given it leads growth and inflationthe view remains that global growth is transitory.

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PPG

@PPGMacro

3 years

Unfortunately, with Biden, I expect to see days get darker. Nordstream 2, Iran & now Afghanistan show a woeful sense of foreign and defence policy. And look at allowing Huawei to buy chips. FFS

The darkest day of Joe Biden’s presidency

A frantic, somber day in the West Wing as attacks in Kabul resulted in the death of at least 13 U.S. service members.

www.politico.com

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PPG

@PPGMacro

2 years

Small business pricing plans for the next 3 months have an incredible track record over the past 30 years against inflation. Nuff said...

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PPG

@PPGMacro

3 years

The Fed changing Jackson Hole to a virtual meeting tells you that taper is not happening soon. #FederalReserve

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PPG

@PPGMacro

2 years

How long before the ISM Manufacturing PMI breaks 50?

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PPG

@PPGMacro

3 months

After 15 years, it was goodbye to Rex today. Time to mourn, but also a time to celebrate a friend who brought so much joy to my family.

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PPG

@PPGMacro

4 months

Not tweeted for a while. Against the gloom, note the strong recovery in Korea and Taiwan exports.

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PPG

@PPGMacro

8 months

US student loan payments soar. Even though they are not obligatory before October borrowers are paying at a rate of $9bn a month.

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PPG

@PPGMacro

2 years

The 6th-10th eurodollar spread is inverted. Looks like late 2018. Hard to be bearish bonds here.

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PPG

@PPGMacro

2 years

They ain't borrowing because they want to. It's because they have to.

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PPG

@PPGMacro

10 months

Following the repayment of ECB TLTROs last week major central bank assets are the smallest since October 2020. Down $2t in past 3 months. Ho hum...

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PPG

@PPGMacro

1 year

Linkedin say the JOLTS data is wrong.

Danielle DiMartino Booth

@DiMartinoBooth

1 year

MOST IMPORTANT TWEET OF WEEKEND Powell KNOWS job openings FALSE FED research: NET OUT openings for EMPLOYED workers, aka poaching vacancies, vacancies for UNEMPLOYED (blue line), & there’s been no improvement this CENTURY. This draws me to conclude Powell wants to kill Fed Put

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PPG

@PPGMacro

10 months

Selling what they can get a bid on. Never a good sign.

LongConvexity

@LONGCONVEXITY

10 months

“Blackstone may sell half of the $4.25 billion interest it acquired in the Bellagio Resort & Casino in Las Vegas in 2019. If true, it would represent the liquidation of an asset that is performing well”

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PPG

@PPGMacro

1 year

@DrCameronMurray Negative gearing should be scrapped.

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PPG

@PPGMacro

2 years

Putting Ukraine to one side - UMich consumer confidence expectations have signalled every downturn since it started in 1978. This time will be different?.....No

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PPG

@PPGMacro

3 years

China PMI - Another big miss. 50.4 compared to forecasts of 50.8. Worse, it does not include the impact of Delta spread. New export orders down to 47.7. The dismal levels of 2019. Global demand is fading...rapidly. Where China goes, US follows. #china #recession

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@PPGMacro

3 years

Developer Yango. Bonds were at 80 cents a week ago. Now 12. Slowly, then suddenly... #China

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@PPGMacro

1 year

ALLY - Note equity to assets and low Tier 1 ratio. One of the biggest auto lenders where delinquencies are surging...

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PPG

@PPGMacro

2 years

Far too much being made about China PMI. Of much greater importance was Taiwan's that plunged to 44.6. The great chip shortage is ending rapidly.

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PPG

@PPGMacro

10 months

A MUST WATCH

Adam Taggart

@menlobear

10 months

Brace for a credit crunch + a "serious" recession So counsels Dr Lacy Hunt, one of the most-respected living economists And don't use the financial markets as a signal for economic health. They're a near-useless indicator in his opinion This is a hugely important discussion:

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PPG

@PPGMacro

2 years

Despite all the talk of strong balance sheets total US debt rose by $1.66 trillion in Q1. The 2nd biggest rise on record. Federal debt? $940bn. Household? $372bn. Business $370bn. Now think of the increased interest costs with rates and credit spreads surging.

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PPG

@PPGMacro

1 year

China leads the way.

Freelunch

@FreeLunchOrNot

1 year

no inflation coming from China it seems #disinflation

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PPG

@PPGMacro

2 years

There is a basic reality. Fed got suckered by UMich and data that has been substantially revised lower. The consumer is fading as is employment. Basic question? If the data they have now was in front of them now was there in June would they have done 75bp? I doubt it.

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PPG

@PPGMacro

11 months

Dallas Fed prices paid & US CPI. In 2020-21 when DFed was shooting up the Fed said inflation transitory. Now prices paid has collapsed, the Fed says inflation won't fall quickly. Wrong both times?

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PPG

@PPGMacro

11 months

Combined central bank assets have fallen by $1.2t since March (PBOC assets down CNY 1.5t). With continued QT and the ECB's TLTRO expiry next week of EUR 478bn they will soon hit a new low. The divergence with global equities is clear.

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PPG

@PPGMacro

5 years

Hong Kong - Interest rates surging. Not seen action like this since LIBOR crisis in 2007 and Lehamn collapse in 2008. This will not end well.

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PPG

@PPGMacro

2 years

@great_martis it's wrong. this is the proper data.

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PPG

@PPGMacro

11 months

Fed researchers saving excess savings gone, and now lower. = consumption being supported by credit. + risk that savings ratio starts to rise as well below average.

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PPG

@PPGMacro

3 months

For all the noise surrounding US CPI, this chart is hard to ignore. It's Chinese export prices and US CPI. With China interest rates already low and monetary policy pushing on a string, the risk is that the currency could once again be used as a tool. One needs to think of the…

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PPG

@PPGMacro

11 months

FX, this feels like a pressure cooker...

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PPG

@PPGMacro

1 year

ISM Services Prices & US CPI

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PPG

@PPGMacro

11 months

US wholesalers auto inventory/sales ratio. Only higher during GFC - ignore the brief Covid spike.

Darth Powell 🦈🇺🇲🇺🇦🇵🇱🇫🇮

@GRomePow

11 months

Car prices about to collapse? Weird....

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PPG

@PPGMacro

2 years

This highlights the pain in the euro rates curve last week. 2y1y vs 30y IRS. Last time inverted was 2008. lots of shoulder taps from risk. #rates #Bonds

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PPG

@PPGMacro

2 years

ADP Small Business employment (less than 500 workers) has fallen by almost 200k YTD.

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PPG

@PPGMacro

4 years

For the first time ever, using data back to 1967, continuing unemployment claims exceed the off unemployment count by 1.54 million. BLS data looks meaningless.

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PPG

@PPGMacro

5 years

US private residential construction spending continues to collapse Down 6.3% YoY, led by residential at -11.2% YoY. And yet Fed sees no recession. Ummm

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PPG

@PPGMacro

1 year

In October my clients got this... Few were concerned...

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@PPGMacro

1 year

Freight: Total inbound container volumes at ports of LA and Long Beach. February is always the seasonal low but the weakness is profound.

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PPG

@PPGMacro

2 years

brilliant

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PPG

@PPGMacro

3 years

With growth negligible, export orders PMI at a recessionary 46.7 how long can China survive with a yuan that has appreciated against other big exporters?

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PPG

@PPGMacro

1 year

China reminds me more and more of 2014/15. Fiscal policy has been front-loaded and the overall public sector deficit is around 10%. Monetary policy is easy and pushing on a string. PPI is heavily negative YoY for 7 months in a row. Only other option?..Devalue as they did in 2015…

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PPG

@PPGMacro

2 years

If global chip demand is so strong how come Taiwan export orders are down YoY and the new orders PMI is at 45.6? #recession

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PPG

@PPGMacro

4 years

The idea that China will be back to normal any time soon is nuts.

Global Times

@globaltimesnews

4 years

Wartime control measures are implemented in Zhangwan district in Shiyan, #Hubei Province, starting from Thursday, which means all buildings will be fully closed in the next 14 days. Whether the controls will lift ahead or continue depends on the epidemic prevention effect. #NCP

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PPG

@PPGMacro

2 years

The JOLTS number remains highly suspect. The best example is job openings in real estate and rental/leasing. Supposedly there are a record 221k vacancies when activity is plunging. Yeah right.... red line is existing home sales

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PPG

@PPGMacro

3 years

Never mind debts in Greece or Italy, it’s France that’s heading for a crisis It's much worse when one includes corp debt. France's debt service ratio is the highest of any major economy

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PPG

@PPGMacro

1 year

Hardly a soft landing. Rail weakest since 2013 (Weekly data). LA inbound containers 3mth av weakest since 2016. Bulk rates at lows.

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PPG

@PPGMacro

2 years

Killer Charts. Reserves are more important than the Fed's balance sheet. In the first week of this year they fell by $236bn. They are down $476bn from high and could be down to $3t by year-end. Guess what? Margin debt also plunged. The implications for risk assets are clear.

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PPG

@PPGMacro

3 years

A JGB Warning - Past experience has taught me to ignore at one's peril. Global 30-year yields.

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PPG

@PPGMacro

2 years

Redfin Lays Off 13% of Staff, Shuts Down Home-Flipping Business. D.R. Horton Stock Falls After Earnings Miss Expectations, As Home Orders Fell And Cancellation Rates Rose B(L)S says record real estate job openings. FFS!

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PPG

@PPGMacro

3 years

China $ Junk yields surge to new highs. The credit impulse warned us, but nobody thought it would get this bad. Not that markets seem to care...They will.

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PPG

@PPGMacro

2 years

The Fed categorises big banks as the largest 25 by assets. The rest go in the small bank sector in the H.8 report. Cash assets are essentially reserves and liquidity at small banks has plunged by almost 50% this year. If it's this bad for banks it is much worse for non-banks.

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PPG

@PPGMacro

1 year

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@PPGMacro

2 years

The Fed is obviously not looking at the freight market.

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PPG

@PPGMacro

2 years

US money supply growth is set to collapse. Money surge was transitory but greater than normal. Think of a tidal wave. it takes much longer for the water to retreat. That's enough for now.

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PPG

@PPGMacro

10 months

Continuing Claims – A Rare Divergence from Normal With Covid the BLS deployed a new seasonal adjustment methodology, eventually scraping it earlier this year. Whether the situation is, now, properly measured is a reasonable conversation. Using the non-adjusted data one can…

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PPG

@PPGMacro

2 years

US GDP - Hard to argue with 75 years of history. Every time GDP has been less than the net exports contribution the economy has had a recession.

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PPG

@PPGMacro

2 years

Another example of pain. 2y1y vs 4y1y SONIA - That's GBP forward rates for those unfamiliar. Inverted by 36 basis points. Last time here was 2008. UH-OH...

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PPG

@PPGMacro

2 years

Credit - 5y USD CDX HY plus the yield of the 5-year note is now above 9% and where it was at the worst of the pandemic panic in March 2020.

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@PPGMacro

1 year

Credit also ignoring activity.

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PPG

@PPGMacro

1 year

Time to put foreign banks in the US on watch. They have had deposit flight too and their loan/deposit ratio is at a record high. Hmmm... And Uncle Sam won't care about them

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PPG

@PPGMacro

1 year

The collapse of confidence in Macron’s France will be brutal and sudden

French president’s pensions reforms are doomed to fail – but as a result, the country's future is also at risk

www.telegraph.co.uk

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PPG

@PPGMacro

3 years

China - Hidden debt - 50 trillion yuan - only 50% of GDP. #China

In Depth: The Never-Ending Battle to Curb China’s Hidden Debt

Lenders ordered to close loopholes that are allowing local governments and their financing vehicles to skirt borrowing limits

www.caixinglobal.com

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PPG

@PPGMacro

1 year

I cannot stress enough how important the stuff that @FreightAlley puts out is. It's so live. So ahead of what the statistics bodies publish in arrears. It will also be the first sign of recovery...Eventually.

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PPG

@PPGMacro

1 year

Jay Powell's strong labour market...

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