Nolan McCarty @Nolan_Mc Twitter profile

Last Seen Profiles

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@nellis

@_jimmydneutron

@arelyvaleriaa

Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

4 years

I find it rich that a bunch of guys terrorized by the fear of a mean Trump tweet are telling Yovanovitch that she should just get over hers

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

2 years

I wish CNN would find some economists, rather than political consultants, to talk about gas prices

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

1 month

The chance I would read a WAPO story about Kim Mulkey: Before press conference: ~0 Now: 110%

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

3 years

In times like this small things can create heroes. The Senate staffers who secured the Electoral College documents before the takeover qualify

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

4 years

Perhaps we should thank the NY Post for the October reminder of just how imbricated the upper echelons of Trump World are with the Russian intelligence services

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

4 years

If Trump were to lose, there would be few better indicators of the longevity of Trumpism than whether his close advisors get "soft landings." If they do, it will show that there is little cost to aiding and abetting a wanna-be authoritarian.

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

4 years

My back of the envelope estimate was that Biden needed 67% of the outstanding vote to win PA. Since I started tracking, he's gotten 76% of what has come in

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

3 years

Ultramarathon is a niche sport, so most of ya’ll don’t know some dude just ran 309km in 24 hours. That is a 7:30 per mile pace for an entire day.

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

7 years

Please let loofah-faced shit gibbon enter the eternal poltical lexicon. via @thephillyvoice

Pennsylvania senator to Trump: Come after me, you 's***-gibbon'

A Pennsylvania lawmaker had strong words for Donald Trump after the president reportedly joked he would "destroy" a Texas lawmaker's career.

www.phillyvoice.com

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

3 years

Twitter is just one big faculty meeting sometimes. The point has been made, but no one will rest until everyone has made it.

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

2 years

Kind of amazing that in the midst of a severe labor shortage, Costco can still afford to pay people to pretend to cross-check your merchandise against the receipt

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

4 years

I am tired of McEnany. When do we get the real deal Katrina Pierson?

The Hill

@thehill

4 years

Kayleigh McEnany: "We cleaned up the mess that was very clearly left by President Obama."

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

6 years

Next up on Trump legal team

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

2 years

I score this as a win for political science in the contest with law professors on how judges make decisions

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

4 years

More evidence that simply "not being stupid" would have a major impact on the virus. Yet we can't seem to clear even that low hurdle.

Andrew Friedson

@FriedsonAndrew

4 years

We estimate that over 250,000 of the reported cases between August 2 and September 2 are due to the Sturgis Rally. Roughly 19 percent of the national cases during this timeframe.

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

4 years

Rather than handicapping the electoral effects of the NY Times, CNN could do some 1) reporting corroborating/contradicting it 2) explaining the magnitude of the alleged irregularities. Just letting some talking heads go “LOL nothing matters” is really bad

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

3 years

Question should not be whether Trump shows up at inaugural , but whether Biden lets him come. Biden should not invite Trump unless he makes a full and unambiguous statement affirming the legitimacy of Biden's election. Total farce if Trump shows up otherwise

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

2 years

@ba_lyons No mushrooms, but the mold was pretty bad after some ivy broke trough the window sill

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

3 years

I am warming to the Cruz idea of an electoral commission to investigate fraud. It can start with that perpetuated by Trump

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

4 years

The Founders (many of them survivors of various yellow fever epidemics) would be shocked that anyone would read the Constitution to contain a right to ignore the police powers of local officials during an epidemic

Dr. Tara C. Smith

@aetiology

4 years

Orville, Ohio. Not sure if this is chain-wide. @GioninosO

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

4 years

Per 538: Since polling, 8 presidents ran for reelection after full first term. Net approval ratings on day 1121 for winners: DDE +62.2 RWR +19.3 RMN + 17.6 WJC +6.7 GWB +4.5 BHO +2.1 Losers: JEC +21.9 (hostages) GHWB -1.5 Trump is -8.9. Doesn’t really seem like he’s winning

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

4 years

If the claim is that he’s a lying, disgruntled former employee, don’t you want to put him under oath?

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

4 years

Modest proposal: start taunting Trump that he could never beat Obama. Then hopefully he would lead effort to repeal the 22nd Amendment in time for November

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

5 years

Good God!! Barr is worse than my undergrads at citing stuff

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

3 years

Just a reminder that 48 out of every 100 Texans voted against Donald Trump. Don’t let the difference of 2 out of a hundred flip your empathy

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

3 years

With a few notable exceptions, economists can be divided into two groups. 1) those who ignore political science 2) those who learn political science from Piketty. Both groups know equal amounts of political science

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

2 years

The guy next to me in the bar is using his rudimental knowledge of game theory to impress his date. I will report back on any apparent success

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

2 years

I have no formal training, but I did watch every episode of the Americans. A thread 1/37

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

3 years

Alternative headline: President's party has strongest showing in off-year gubernatorial elections since 1985.

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

3 years

@KevinMKruse It would be wrong to ignore those 14 points

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

2 years

The Constitution does prohibit reducing SCOTUS salaries. But Congress could pass legislation eliminating or reducing all of the outside income (books, speaking, etc). That would be a good policy independent of recent events

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

5 years

There may be no better evidence of the weakness of American political parties than the likelihood that Texas Democrats will have two presidential candidates and no high quality Senate candidate.

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

2 years

Some of my tribe have been dunking an a certain billionaire's claim that most voters are moderates. The objection is that so called "moderate" voters have a mix of extreme preferences on different issues that cancel out. While this is true of some, I think this is overstated.

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

3 years

New Trump Attorney John Blutarsky: Over? Did you say 'over?' Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell, no!

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

1 year

I get that we political scientists are “boring”, “have faces for radio”, “have voices for silent films” and “dress like Keebler elves” but I really think we could add much to TV post-election analysis

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

3 years

I guess they don’t teach about selecting on the DV at certain schools

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

6 years

One does have to appreciate Trump's exquisite lack of irony. I mean repeating "no collusion" over and over while clearly colluding live in front of an international audience.

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

7 years

Breaking news: Travel agents Elizabeth and Philip Jennings appointed to high level national security positions in Trump administration.

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

2 years

Hill I will die on: a regression table is a far more efficient use of space and communicates far more than a coefficient plot.

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

1 year

A good question -- but one with an unknowable answer-- is the extent to which Cheney and Kinzinger's participation on 1/6 panel helped to persuade independents and moderate GOP voters about the seriousness of election denial.

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

3 years

Not sure who needs to hear it, but the origins, history, and current functioning of an institution need not be related in any coherent way.

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

3 years

Almost worth $40 to hear it

Lauren Peikoff✡️

@laurenpeikoff

3 years

John Boehner tells Ted Cruz to “go f**k yourself,” goes off-script in audio version of memoir

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

2 years

It is a testament to the nationalization of American politics that the gubernatorial election in Texas is about anything other than power grids.

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

2 years

Someone should tell Andrew Yang that there is math in some political science courses so he should feel free to take one

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

3 months

@AlexThomp "Movies -- a long form entertainment popular in the late 20th Century""

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

2 years

I have been at a loss over the past several days as to what to say about Howard Rosenthal. There is no doubt that my collaboration with Howard and @MrNOMINATE is the highlight of my intellectual life. Lasted over 30 years and continues to be the foundation of my research agenda

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

3 years

My primary goal in teaching this semester to have all of my students learn that the names of political parties are supposed to be capitalized.

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

2 years

Two things can be simultaneously true: 1. It is troubling that more than 40% of French voters were willing to support the far right candidate. 2. An 18% margin is a landslide

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

8 years

Kellyanne Conway is worth every cent that Trump is going to refuse to pay her.

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

4 years

I don’t like to tell people how to do their jobs, but just want to let Congress know that they can impeach Barr if they want

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

5 years

I explained to my 15 year old daughter how Trump does not seem to understand the Constitution which he took an oath to defend. Her response: so its like when one quickly scrolls through the terms of service on an app and says Yes.

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

3 years

When political scientists see that 75% of GOP voters think election was stolen, we ask ourselves whether the voters actually believe that or are "cheerleading" for Trump. Here is some evidence that a substantial number believe it. via @slate

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

3 years

My first initiative will be to get them to spell my name correctly.

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

9 months

Some news

Beyond ChatGPT: Princeton Language and Intelligence initiative pushes the boundaries of large AI...

Princeton faculty lead the kickoff symposium for the Princeton Language and Intelligence initiative.

dof.princeton.edu

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

1 year

We should describe the. elimination of tenure as attempt to “politicize universities” rather than “attack on academic freedom”. Better to focus on harms to society rather than “rights” of scholars

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

6 years

Periodic reminder that the travel ban was supposed to be temporary until they "figured out what the hell is going on." Trump has been in office for 18 months. God, are they slow learners.

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

3 years

Increasing my confidence in my view that the Democrats should not panic

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

3 years

Who says there is no learning in politics? We now know transcripts of treasonous phone calls are not enough. We are about to learn that recordings of treasonous phone calls are not enough

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

3 years

I used to be fairly discriminating about wine. Now I have a three-part decision rule: 1) Is it red? 2) Is it under $10? 3) Does it have a screwcap?

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

4 years

Looks like Trump has lost ME 2 for good

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

2 years

Tell me me how old you are without telling me how old you are... I still think ML stands for maximum likelihood

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

6 years

@KevinMKruse @BetoORourke Certainly gives me the vapors

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

1 year

The "vote present" strategy is quote risky. If 10 GOP vote for, say, Jordan, the result would be a continuation of the election. If 10 vote present, its Speaker Jeffries.

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

2 years

Antonio Brown has given me some ideas for our next faculty meeting

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

4 years

Asked last week what my greatest election fear is. Easy, armed militias showing up at urban voting booths

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

2 years

Just a gentle reminder that for US PhD programs, prospective students must apply to a department, not an individual faculty member

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

6 years

Chuck Cameron and I have spent 20 years debating the nature of veto bargaining in the US. I don't think either of us has a damn clue about what happened today.

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

5 years

Do you have questions about polarization? I have (some) answers (in July)

Polarization: What Everyone Needs to Know®

www.amazon.com

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

2 years

As a black coffee drinker, I propose a ban on lattes, cappuccinos, and macchiatos until the labor shortage is over

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

3 years

@tom_s_clark Actually it’s never too late. Former officials can be impeached and disqualified for future office. That needs to happen

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

4 years

Did Armstrong just argue against disqualification by reading the article that allows Congress to disqualify?

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

1 year

My daughter, Princeton University student, told me she was taking her friends to White Castle. I said “just like Harold and Kumar.” She had no idea what I was talking about. I cannot believe they don’t teach the canon anymore

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

3 years

Alternatively saying you are a political scientist prolongs conversations you want to stop

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

4 years

The discretion over deciding when an election is "non-essential" is an invitation to authoritarian abuse

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

3 years

I wonder why Georgia GOP wants to turn special elections into referenda on Trump when they have already lost one of those this month

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

2 years

Nobody asked my opinion. But, nevertheless, here is 280 pages of it.

Polarization: What Everyone Needs to Know®

www.amazon.com

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

4 years

TFW you see an "et al" citation and think I have never heard of that paper. Then you check bibliography to find that you were the third author.

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

3 years

Yes it’s the most bipartisan impeachment vote, but that is only because the Nixon impeachment was going to be so bipartisan that it didn’t happen

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

6 years

There are pros and cons about Princeton not having a law school. Today is certainly a pro day.

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

3 years

You would think an esteemed historian invited on CNN to talk about politics would recognize the difference between LBJ’s 295 House members and 68 senators and Biden’s 222 and 50. But surely Joe can compensate by using the Bully Pulpit

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

9 months

Kind of excited to watch how the 19 person Prisoners Dilemma will play out

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

3 years

May be an unpopular opinion, but the number of requests by prospective graduate students to "discuss" the program prior to applying has gotten out of control. I'm not adverse to answering a specific question, but most want to schedule half hour (or more) phone conversations.

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

4 years

He seems to have forgotten that Texas has a subculture focused on eating exotics and game (antelope, wild boar, armadillo, and yes snakes)

The Hill

@thehill

4 years

Sen. John Cornyn: "China is to blame because the culture where people eat bats & snakes & dogs & things like that, these viruses are transmitted from the animal to the people and that's why China has been the source of a lot of these viruses like SARS, like MERS, the Swine Flu."

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

1 month

Can't wait until all of the Trump supporters who are upset about Judge Merchan's daughter hear about Ginni Thomas

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

7 years

Wow, when John Yoo claims executive overreach that is saying something.

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

6 years

Run this Stata code, and then tell me the logic is sound set obs 20000 gen x =runiform() gen y = x + .1*rnormal() corr x y corr x y if x > .95

The Chicago Maroon

@ChicagoMaroon

6 years

The University made the decision to go test-optional after studying the admissions files of students who underperform, concluding that testing isn’t an indicator that a student will struggle, Dean Nondorf said.

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

6 years

I really hope Adam Sandler updates the Hanukkah Song to include "one of Roy Moore's Attorneys -- definitely a Jew"

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

4 years

Given Sacha Baron Cohen's tendency to go for the jugular, I am kind of surprised he ended the scene when he did

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

3 years

Steve King looking at treatment of Majorie Taylor Greene: I guess I wasn’t crazy enough

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

7 years

And anybody with a powerful father can be a press secretary.

The Hill

@thehill

7 years

Sarah Huckabee Sanders: "Now anybody with a computer can be a journalist"

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

4 months

A tweet because I have too many friends: Individual faculty offices are probably the largest captial investments at most universities. I worry that might change of faculty don't start using them more regularly.

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

2 years

Nerd tweet of day: Do not use the absolute value of DW-NOMINATE as a measure of extremism. It is a latent scale and there is nothing in the estimation or post-processing that gives zero any meaning whatsoever.

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

4 years

If Biden wins because of this, how will history remember him? As POTUS

Kristen Soltis Anderson

@KSoltisAnderson

4 years

The 2020 election (at the moment) looks like a referendum on Trump. New Fox News poll has enthusiasm for Trump as bigger driver for Trump voters, while fear Trump will win is bigger driver for Biden voters.

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

5 years

My unpopular idea: stop using college presidencies as retirement gigs for politicians

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

5 years

This gives me the opportunity to announce my new paper -- the first ever attempt to estimate the employment impact of the minimum wage

Adam Berinsky

@AdamBerinsky

5 years

Wow. Using FEC contribution data to estimate political preferences of individuals. Those economists are so clever! First of it's kind!

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

6 years

Hmm, I think I'll settle for the tax returns.

Kevin Drum

@kdrum

6 years

Things we all want to see: the pee tape, the Apprentice outtakes, and now Stormy's dick pics. Quite a list for a president of the United States.

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

3 years

Counterfactuals are hard, but this is a reasonable one: had Jeb or Marco gotten the nomination in 2016, they would have beaten Clinton, passed the same tax cut that juiced the economy, would have done somewhat better on COVID, and we'd have a unified GOP government today.

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

5 years

I am old enough to remember when rambling about the Continental army taking over airports automatically invoked the 25th Amendment.

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

2 years

Peace proposal: Putin withdraws now. In exchange, he gets a fellowship at Harvard IOP

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Nolan McCarty

@Nolan_Mc

3 years

"use" is a perfectly fine word. Don't know why everyone wants to replace it with 7 or 8 letter synonyms.

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