Neil Paine @Neil_Paine Twitter profile

Last Seen Profiles

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

8 years

As seen on the Upper East Side: a lady driving her dog around in a radio-controlled BMW

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

6 years

I love this handy pocket guide to @jalenramsey 's QB thoughts, put together by @espn

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

9 years

Incredible. http://t.co/53El5oXADY

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

6 years

@GameGrumps Congrats on the 3rd 3-2 win in NFL history! (and 1st since 1926):

All Games in Pro Football History with a 3 to 2 score | Pro-Football-Reference.com

All Games in Pro Football History with a 3 to 2 score

www.pro-football-reference.com

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

1 year

Well, I'm finally doing one of these. I just got word that my time with @FiveThirtyEight is at an end. It was a joy to be able to write about analytics and sports for nearly a decade, and I want to thank you all for reading over the years.

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

5 years

Things are looking pretty good for my bracket in the @FiveThirtyEight office pool...

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

6 years

Khris Davis has hit .247 each of the past 3 seasons. He went into today's game with a .247 this year, too. He's currently 0-1. Assuming he has 3 more ABs in this game, he must go *exactly* 1-for-3 the rest of this game to land on .247 again. DRAMA!

The Most Consistent Hitter In Baseball History

Oakland's Khris Davis can't stop hitting .247.

fivethirtyeight.com

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

6 years

This confirmed so many of my suspicions about soccer

We Timed Every Game. World Cup Stoppage Time Is Wildly Inaccurate.

The second half of Iran and Morocco’s tightly contested group match contained nothing too out of the ordinary by World Cup standards. Each side used all three s…

fivethirtyeight.com

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

5 years

Ahead of Lindsey Vonn's final race on Sunday, I wrote about her career as the GOAT of women's skiing -- and American skiing, period.

Lindsey Vonn Is The Greatest American Skier — And It’s Not Even Close

One of the great careers in international sport is coming to a close this weekend. Ski racer Lindsey Vonn’s final run will be Sunday, at the 2019 Alpine World S…

fivethirtyeight.com

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

6 years

Kinda says it all...

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

10 months

LOL

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

7 years

Who'da thunk our obsession w/ judging players by rings would eventually see them joining stacked teams where winning is as easy as possible🤔

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

8 years

According to our @FiveThirtyEight Elo pitcher ratings, this is the 10th-best starting pitcher matchup in World Series history

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

8 years

This is a thing that just happened: A U.S. Presidential candidate said he wouldn't necessarily accept the result of the election.

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

5 years

This was fun. We teamed up with the folks at @ootpbaseball to simulate the end of the 1994 season, to see if Tony Gwynn would hit .400, if Matt Williams would hit 62 HR and if the Expos (or someone else) would’ve won the World Series if not for the strike:

Would The Expos Have Won The 1994 World Series?

The 1994 baseball season ended with a players’ strike on Aug. 12, and with that, countless what-ifs were launched.

fivethirtyeight.com

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

5 years

This Khris Davis numerology is getting scary. First he hits exactly .247 four straight years (), and now he is hitting home runs at exactly 2:47pm?!

The Most Consistent Hitter In Baseball History

Oakland's Khris Davis can't stop hitting .247.

fivethirtyeight.com

Jessica Kleinschmidt

@KleinschmidtJD

5 years

Omg @MLBNetwork noticed this. Khrush hit a HR yesterday and the CLOCK STRUCK 2:47

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

1 year

I'm not totally sure what's next for me in the long term, but if you want to read some sports-things from me in the meantime, please check out my Substack: Thank you all for everything over the years!

Neil’s Substack | Neil Paine | Substack

Analytical but narrative -- blending the past and future of sportswriting. Click to read Neil’s Substack, by Neil Paine, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.

neilpaine.substack.com

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

7 years

LaVell Edwards had a huge impact on modern football -- check out @smartfootball on how BYU influenced the Air Raid:

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

4 years

HOW CAN YOU HAVE A SEASON ENDING INJURY WHEN THERE IS NO SEASON????

Jeff Passan

@JeffPassan

4 years

New York Mets starter Noah Syndergaard has a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow and is expected to undergo Tommy John surgery in the near future, sources tell ESPN. The procedure will keep him out until at earliest April 2021 and likely into the summer months.

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

5 years

In 2019, it's fashionable to complain about how baseball is played. But instead of doing that, here's a better idea: let's celebrate just how GREAT the current crop of young stars is!

Baseball’s 20-Something Sluggers Are Saving The Sport

Stop complaining about baseball!

fivethirtyeight.com

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

8 years

Found this 1993 Upper Deck Denny Neagle card -- apparently he was backing into hedges (er, ivy) before it was cool

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

9 years

No Upset In The Last 11 Years Has Been Like The One Georgia State Just Pulled Off http://t.co/JZGrvhkaki

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

6 years

Which Winter Olympic sport is best for you? (I got hockey!) Great interactive by @guswez here:

Which Winter Olympic Sport Is Best For You?

Are you a figure skater or more of a bobsled-type? Take our quiz to find the best Winter Olympic sport for you.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

9 years

Where Do This Year's Cavs Rank Among LeBron’s NBA Finals Supporting Casts? http://t.co/9KcQWQd970

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

8 years

I'm hosting a new podcast series! It's called Ahead Of Their Time; Ep 1 is about Ted Williams & the defensive shift:

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

5 years

TIL that Michael Beasley had more Win Shares than Zion Williamson in the same # of games as a freshman:

Player Season Finder Query Results | College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com

College Basketball @ Sports-Reference Player Season Finder

www.sports-reference.com

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

7 years

The evolution of LeBron James' game, via his top CARMELO comparables over time:

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

8 years

On a night like this, I just wanna thank baseball for being a welcome distraction from the stark-raving shitshow that is this election

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

8 years

U.S. Men’s Soccer gets to play all its games on grass. So why does the Women's team have to play on crappy turf?

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

9 months

I dug into MJ’s time running the Hornets after their sale was approved this week. How did the NBA’s greatest competitor lose so much as an exec? A lot comes down to the draft, where somehow MJ got less value than both the team picking before him AND after.

Why Michael Jordan’s Management of the Hornets Was So Terrible

Basketball’s most obsessive winner was one of its biggest losers in Charlotte

themessenger.com

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

7 years

Good story on the bizarre NCAA technicality by which Donnel Pumphrey "broke" Ron Dayne's career rushing record:

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

5 years

My amazing @FiveThirtyEight colleagues @Tonyhkchow and @ellawinthrop and I worked on this video, projecting Colin Kaepernick's 2019 QB Elo based on QB aging patterns. Worst case, he still would be a borderline starter in the league:

Colin Kaepernick Is Probably Still Good Enough For The NFL | FiveTh...

Colin Kaepernick hasn’t played in the NFL for a few years, but now that many starting quarterbacks are unable to play this season, some fans are wondering wh...

www.youtube.com

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

8 years

I'm on a Spurs kick. Yesterday, their insane bench: Today, Kawhi is a freak among shooters:

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

1 year

I also want to thank so many of my wonderful colleagues who have supported me and allowed me to learn from them -- there are far too many to name here, but know that I appreciate you all. ♥️♥️♥️

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

6 years

Before the #Mets did it today, here's a list of all the teams who ever had separate games where they both scored and allowed 24+ runs

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

1 year

Just to piggyback a little off everything Chris said in this thread, I wanted to give a special shout-out to my own All-Stars who helped keep our small, resource-depleted sports section afloat as long as we did in the face of a very difficult situation.

Christopher Groskopf

@onyxfish

1 year

Yesterday FiveThirtyEight underwent devastating layoffs. A huge number of incredibly talented journalists are coming onto the market. I've had the great fortune to manage many of them over the past few years and I want to say a few words about each of them:

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

3 years

Our NBA forecast is back for 2020-21! 🏀🎉🏀🎉🏀🎉🏀🎉🏀🎉🏀🎉🏀🎉🏀🎉

2020-21 NBA Predictions

FiveThirtyEight’s NBA forecast projects the winner of each game and predicts each team's chances of advancing to the playoffs and winning the NBA finals.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

6 years

As @_schem and I wrote, L.A. needs the Dodgers to win just 1 World Series game, and it will trigger maybe the greatest single-city sports day in history on Sunday:

The Dodgers Have Triggered The Super Sports Equinox In LA

UPDATE (Oct. 27,2018, 5:22 p.m.): When the Dodgers outlasted the Red Sox 3-2 in 18 innings Saturday morning, they guaranteed that Los Angeles would indeed play …

fivethirtyeight.com

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

5 years

These NFL Playoffs should be fun!

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

8 years

Happy Jackie Robinson Day everybody! Here's a piece I wrote 2 years ago about how great Jackie was by the numbers:

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

9 years

As is always the case, if you don't want someone admiring the ball they hit & bat flipping on you, there's a solution: don't give up a HR

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

6 years

Really cool summary of how the Red Sox and Dodgers' World Series odds evolved over the course of the season, by @guswez and @SaraMZiegler

How The Red Sox And Dodgers Made It To The World Series, In One Chart

We look back at the paths to the championship taken by Boston and Los Angeles.

fivethirtyeight.com

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

8 years

That river is going to be on so much fire tonight...

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

5 years

Most career TD receptions per game in Patriots history, min. 1 TD

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

7 years

Tonight the Red Wings were knocked out of the playoff race for the 1st time since 1990. Last month I wrote about why

The Red Wings’ Empire Is Crumbling

On April Fools’ Day in 1990, the Detroit Red Wings and Philadelphia Flyers skated for the final game of the season at The Spectrum in south Philly. Captain Stev…

fivethirtyeight.com

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

9 years

Is http://t.co/R3uqLgcEN2 trying to draw a comparison here? http://t.co/kIRLSCOFab

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

6 years

Remember when we had this ridiculous assortment of licensed football video games to choose from? Truly a different, bygone era.

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

7 years

The 97 Marlins were built 20 years ago, so I wrote about their legacy (and what they had in common with the 16 Cubs)

The 2016 Cubs Won Just Like The 1997 Marlins Did

As the Chicago Cubs celebrated winning the World Series last month, much of the attention centered on the contributions of young, homegrown players such as Nati…

fivethirtyeight.com

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

7 years

Amazingly, of the 1pm games being aired in NYC, three of the four teams are 0-4. And the one that isn't? The Jets.

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

5 years

If you broke the "Devil Rays" and "Rays" into 2 different franchises, depending on when the team called itself what, the Rays would have the *3rd best* record of any franchise since 1901 and the Devil Rays would have the *worst* record of any franchise since 1901.

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

6 years

I know the Cavs are slumping but HOLY CRAP do you have to scroll far down the @FiveThirtyEight power rankings to find their spot on the list

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

3 years

The Hall of Pretty Damn Good Players returns! This time with one of the coolest players of my childhood -- and one of history's best defensive catchers:

Charles Johnson Was Damn Good Behind (And At) The Plate

He played a vital role for the star-studded 1997 Marlins.

fivethirtyeight.com

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

6 years

With today's announcement that @alo_oficial is leaving F1, we should appreciate just how great Alonso has been over the course of his career:

The Best Formula One Driver Might Be A Guy Who Hasn’t Won Since 2013

Fernando Alonso has slipped far down the F1 standings from his championship days, but he's driving as hard as ever.

fivethirtyeight.com

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

6 years

Now the Brewers REALLY look like the 2015 Royals...

The 2018 Brewers Sure Look A Lot Like The 2015 Royals

Milwaukee sits atop the National League by using the same formula of speed and strong relief pitching that got Kansas City a title three years ago.

fivethirtyeight.com

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

5 years

The Lakers added LeBron James and somehow got worse (relative to league average) on both offense and defense. How is that even possible?

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

8 years

Olympic racewalking is easy to mock, but it really does look like they're all desperately trying to reach a bathroom before disaster strikes

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

5 years

Hot Takedown is REBORN! In our quasi-first episode back, we talked about the NCAA Tournaments (men + women) and Mike Trout's new contract. Oh, and funny animal college mascots.

Uh, Did The Selection Committee Actually Get It Right?

The FiveThirtyEight sports podcast is back.

fivethirtyeight.com

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

7 years

Hmm, one of these remaining teams is not like the others...

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

10 years

Who else but Peyton Manning would have executed that drive, against that opponent, in that situation, at that stadium? Unbelievable.

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

9 years

Wikipedia already on the case re: Geno Smith http://t.co/V18lKiqeEX

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

3 months

As you probably read elsewhere, I'm no longer with The Messenger. But I am back on Substack, and I have longer thoughts on all of my wonderful sports colleagues and what is next here:

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

5 years

Just started a SuperSonics expansion in 2k. League meetings before first offseason, business as usual... wait, what just happened??

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

8 years

Let's just call them 2016 co-champions.

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

6 years

🤔🤔🤔

Defending World Cup Champions Keep Flaming Out

Over the past half-decade or so, the Spanish national team put together one of the most impressive runs in the history of international soccer, winning a Europe…

fivethirtyeight.com

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

5 years

It's pretty messed up that Mike Trout still hasn't won a playoff game in his career:

Mike Trout Should Have Won A Playoff Game By Now

Trout's drought is the best evidence that baseball is the ultimate team sport.

fivethirtyeight.com

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

8 years

Don't judge Lester, he's running a controlled experiment to determine how much of holding runners is the pitcher and how much is the catcher

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

10 years

For ppl who want quick access to cool things R can do (and don't want to memorize lots of code) I recommend this site http://t.co/aQxoJdn4q6

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

8 years

. @no_little_plans on how baseball’s new data is changing sabermetrics:

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

8 years

Absolutely immortality for LeBron James after this

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

6 years

Really interesting piece from @ellawinthrop -- What If Men And Women Skied Against Each Other In The Olympics?

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

7 years

This is incredible by @tomscocca (h/t @kylenw )

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

8 years

. @No_Little_Plans & @BenLindbergh look at the expansion of analytics departments in MLB, & whether statheads = wins

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

8 years

Check out the latest episode of @FiveThirtyEight 's Ahead Of Their Time, about the NHL's Russian Revolution:

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

8 years

LeBron Led The Cavs On One Of The Greatest Playoff Runs In NBA History

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

5 years

@NateSilver538 @FiveThirtyEight Somehow there are 1,899 people ahead of me...

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

9 years

I used to do stuff like that in FIFA 99

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

5 years

If you can't count on Khris Davis to hit .247, what CAN you count on these days? (Sports intern @LevinAri digs into why, and how hard it will be for Davis to extend his streak...)

Khris Davis Isn’t Batting .247 😱

Is nothing sacred anymore?

fivethirtyeight.com

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

8 years

@MagicTavern I found what appears to be a figurine of @usidoretheblue at a local crafts store

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

6 years

For this week's NFL Elo column, I focused on the L.A. Chargers, who have built up the supporting talent around Philip Rivers and -- more importantly -- cleaned up some of the sloppy fundamental mistakes that plagued them in the past.

Philip Rivers Has The Supporting Cast He Deserves Again

The Chargers have finally surrounded their QB with better playmakers on both sides of the ball.

fivethirtyeight.com

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

6 years

Shoutout to the most successful Mets moment of 2018

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

10 years

Btw, here's the R code that will generate the probability of a series win given a certain game state: http://t.co/Iu0Z5e3Ym9

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

8 years

. @CarlBialik and I dissect how losing to the Celtics changed the Warriors’ odds of 73 wins:

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

9 years

The Spurs Are Going To Be Really Good -- Like, Golden State Warriors Good http://t.co/stlHWrZKWX

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

8 years

Nice touch by MLB gameday adding the Jose Fernandez tribute scoreboard to Marlins Park

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

10 years

The first of our epic 2014 NBA Preview posts: http://t.co/bqOk8s2CB3

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

5 years

Ugh, does this mean I have to root for the Lakers to win at least 1 more championship now?

The Crossover

@TheCrossover

5 years

LaVar Ball says the Lakers “will never win another championship” after trading Lonzo

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

9 years

Fun @reubenfb piece on the rare phenomenon of the Sports Equinox, which will happen today

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

8 years

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

5 years

Mine are the non-ketchup ones, and there were some regrets after downing all 5 of them.

Sara Ziegler

@SaraMZiegler

5 years

Today’s episode of #HotTakedown from @FiveThirtyEight inspired some competitive hot dog eating. (Mine is the one with ketchup, don’t @ me.)

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

10 years

Revisiting The Greatest Show On Turf http://t.co/1EGNpmmetp

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

6 years

I compared Patrick Mahomes' surrounding skill-position talent in KC to other young QBs in NFL history -- and as far as these things go for first-time starters, he's got a pretty great setup!

The Chiefs’ New Quarterback Is Walking Into An Ideal Situation

With seconds left in the first half of the Kansas City Chiefs’ preseason game against the Atlanta Falcons last Friday, new starting QB Patrick Mahomes showed on…

fivethirtyeight.com

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

8 years

"Big Papi for HOF!" "But he failed a PED test." "It's OK, we like him, so don't worry about it." "What about Bonds?" "BAN THE CHEATER!!!!"

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

10 years

How'd they let this guy on @SportsCenter ? http://t.co/jb2HN4iFJg

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

8 years

An ironic bit of advertising smack dab in the middle of the Times' NFL concussion story

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

8 years

Pulling data from @atmccann 's great NFL suspension database (), and... "non-human urine" WTF?

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

7 years

It's still very early in the season, but right now 5 teams are relying on their bullpens for a historic % of their innings pitched

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

8 years

Remember when I said the Panthers were the worst team ever to start 11-0? Well, here’s what changed:

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

5 years

Amazing accomplishment. Although in 2016, Nneka Ogwumike formed the (IMO far more impressive) 67-62-87 club. That's right -- she shot 62 percent from THREE that season.

ESPN Women's Hoops

@ESPN_WomenHoop

5 years

Elena Delle Donne of @WashMystics became the first player in WNBA history to shoot over 50 percent from the field (220 of 427), 40 percent from 3-point range (52 of 121) and 90 percent from the foul line (114 of 117) in the regular season.

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

8 years

Major League Baseball is about to get random. @no_little_plans helps us sort it all out:

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Neil Paine

@Neil_Paine

8 years

As seen on a dumpster behind a movie theater on W 68th St

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