Michael J. Kramer @MichaelMOTTCM Twitter profile

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Michael J. Kramer

8 days

For anyone curious, I posted this to my website, showing how 1Q'24 went for me. It is not a solicitation or offer to sell any product or service. Being transparent in how I use my own analysis.

First-Quarter 2024 Thematic Growth Update

The first quarter of 2024 was a strong one for the broader S&P 500, but risk remain below the surface.

mottcapitalmanagement.com

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

2 years

#SP500 of today vs. the #sp500 of 2008

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

2 years

Here is the #sp500 2008 vs. 2022 analog update.. including today.

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

2 years

This is an updated chart of the S&P 500 comparing 2008 vs. 2022

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

2 years

The #sp500 of today, vs. 1937, 2000, 2008

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

1 year

I guess it has come down to this... $VIX 2022 vs. 2008

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

2 years

$vix 2022 vs. $vix 2008

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

1 year

Its do or die for the S&P 500 2022 vs. 2008 analog #sp500 $spx

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

2 years

This is the final update for the week of the #sp500 in 2022 vs. 2008

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

2 years

The 2008 #sp500 vs. 2022 update

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

1 year

$vix 2022 vs. 2008 update

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

2 years

$vix 2022 vs. $vix 2008

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

1 year

$vix 2022 vs. $vix 2008 at some point, it will stop working.

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

2 years

$vix 2022 vs. $vix 2008

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

1 year

$vix 2022 vs. $vix 2008 update

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

1 year

The #sp500 2008 vs. 2022 analog, the next week is make or break...

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

2 years

#sp500 2008 vs. 2022 with close

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

2 years

surprisingly, the rally this week in the #sp500 matched the 2008 analog. This week is the pivotal week

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

1 year

After many months of tracking the $VIX 2022 vs. 2008 analog, I think we can put it away. It was fun while it lasted.

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

1 year

#copper prices tend to lead the CPI by around 2-3 months

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

2 years

#sp500 2008 vs. #sp500 2022 update

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

2 years

$vix today vs. $vix 2008

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

2 years

What just happened to dollar ?

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

2 years

$vix 2022 compared to $vix 2008 with the 12-day shift.

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

2 years

1937, 2000, 2008, 2022 analog. I am still watching this.. #sp500

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

2 years

$vix 2008 vs. $vix 2022 update

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

2 years

$vix 2022 vs. $vix 2008

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

2 years

$vix of 2008 and vix of today

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

2 years

Updated - S&P 500 '22 vs. S&P 500 '08

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

2 years

you can see the 2022 #sp500 bear market cycle is following those of 1937, 2000, and 2008 and based on this, we are due for new lows into October 25, with a short-term bottom around then, give or take a couple of days.

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

2 years

This is an updated chart of the $VIX in 2008 vs. 2022

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

2 years

Vix 2008 vs. 2022 update

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

2 years

based on the 2008 analog, the move up in the #sp500 is on time.

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

2 years

The S&P 500 2022 vs. 2008 analog suggests the end of this year isn't going to be very good, and this rally is near its end. #sp500

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

2 years

The updated chart comparing the 2022 #sp500 with the #SP500 of 2008. 12-day shift in place.

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

2 years

$vix 2022 vs. $vix 2008. Based on the analog, the VIX could turn higher at any point from here.

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

2 years

$vix today vs. $vix 2008

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

2 years

#sp500 2008 vs. 2022 update

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

2 years

final update for the week - 2022 vs. 2008 bear market cycle analog #sp500 $spx $spy

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

2 years

this is the S&P 500 2022 vs. 2008 analog for the week.

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

2 years

$vix 2022 vs. $vix 2008 analog still working, and watch what happens when I shifted it 12 days forward. The first chart is the one we have been tracking, and the second chart is with the 12-day shift

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

2 years

Here is the $vix 2022 and 2008 comparison update

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

2 years

this chart incredibly compares $nvda of today, with $nvda itself in 2008

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

2 years

$vix of 2022 vs. $vix of 2008

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

2 years

2022 vs. 2008 #sp500 analog, the final update for the week.

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

1 year

After many, many months of tracking the #sp500 2022 vs. 2008 analog, unless something materially changes next week, it looks like this is broken too

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

2 years

#sp500 2022 vs. #sp500 2008 update #spx #spy $spy $spx #stocks

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

1 year

The VIX 2008 analog... either the timing has changed or it is broken

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

1 year

The #sp500 2022 vs. 2008 update $spx $spy

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

2 years

I think the 2008 vs. 2022 analog on the #sp500 shifted two weeks forward. I mentioned earlier this week it may have. Again this isn't meant to predict prices; it is meant to tell us if the #bearmarket cycle is still in play. For now, it still has a pulse.

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

2 years

$vix today vs. 2008

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

1 year

$SP500 - The Fed Needs To Send An Extremely Hawkish Message To Markets

The Fed Needs To Send An Extremely Hawkish Message To Markets

The Federal Reserve appears to be losing control of market and financial conditions have eased dramatically since December FOMC meeting. Click here to read more.

seekingalpha.com

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

2 years

#sp500 of 2022 vs. 2008 update... In jeopardy

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

2 years

Final update of the week for the #sp500 2022 vs. 2008 analog

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

1 year

Now the market sees inflation at 2% by June. lol...

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

2 years

#sp500 1937,2000,2008,2022 $spx $spy

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

2 years

Lots of bullish banter this weekend all over the web. The S&P 500 is 7.5% off the low, and if we had witnessed a real market bottom, nobody would be bullish & instead we would be talking about selling the rally. That's how u know the bottom is not in... Best of luck this week...

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

1 year

The pattern in the #spx looks to me like a bearish running triangle

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

1 year

Lumber is up 40% this month.. unreal....

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

2 years

I forgot to share the $vix of 2022 vs. the $vix of 2008

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

2 years

#sp500 2022 vs. 2008 update

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

1 year

There it is a record in REVERES REPO ACTIVITY

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

1 year

The reserve balances held at the Fed dropped this week to $3.0 trillion, good luck....

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

2 years

#Sp500 2022 vs. 1937

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

1 year

This is my new global liquidity model. Liquidity is leaving.

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

2 years

So far, the move in the #sp500 continues to play along with the 2008 version. The turn lower could happen around September 14, which is the day after CPI. But +/- a day or two won't matter. Anything can happen, I have no idea at this point.

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

2 years

#sp500 2008 analog not dead yet $spy $SPX

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

2 years

This is the #sp500 of 2008 vs. the #sp500 of 2022 analog. Over the next few days, we will find out of this analog will continue to work or not. It is not meant to be predictive; it is just meant to show similarities and a pattern.

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

1 year

A stock market that rallies into the FOMC meeting next week is a signal to the Fed that a 50 bps rate is ok. $ndx #stockmarket

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

2 years

this week saw the Fed's balance sheet drop by almost $46 billion, the most yet.

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

2 years

VIX/VVIX when it goes through the lower Bollinger Band has been associated with market tops in March and Aug

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

2 years

#DowJones today vs. #dowjones 2008 #stocks #market

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

1 year

$vix is down 9% and $spx is flat. amazing

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

1 year

SPX 2022 vs. 2008

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

2 years

Based on this 2008 analog, we may get a bounce after the Fed meeting, but then it looks rough until October 24 +/- a day or two. $spx $spy #sp500

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

2 years

$vix today vs. $vix 2008ish

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

1 year

$arkk below pandemic lows. Amazing...

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

1 year

The #dow had a massive run-up in 2000 just like it is having right now.

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

1 year

Broadening wedge, two failed attempts at the downtrend, and the 200-day moving average. I do not see how that is bullish?

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

1 year

Maybe the Fed should raise 50bps. Market seems fine.

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

1 year

Getting tighter... #sp500 .. yes it looks bearish.

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

2 years

The $amzn of 2000 to #btc of today connection

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

1 year

$spx 2022 vs. 2008 vs. 2000

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

1 year

When the $VIX to $vvix ratio typically goes below its lower Bollinger band it coincides with market tops

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

2 years

here since so many people are upset.. #sp500 2008 vs. 2022

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

1 year

The last few times the VIX was in the low 20s was in August and April at the Fed minutes release.

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

2 years

I love my diamonds 💎 #sp500

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

2 years

Thanks for all the support over the past week, I appreciate everyone that follows me. Tough week, with a lot of data to work through. I'm not always right, but I sure try my best.

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

2 years

$vix 2022 vs. $vix 2008 analog final update for the week

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

1 year

Bulls are trapped, with 4,200 being the level of the greatest call gamma. CTAs are almost finished, VIX OPEX tomorrow, and OI below 17 is nonexistent. Liquidity is draining, QE fantasy is over, odds of more rate hikes are building, and real yields swing higher.

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

1 year

What if this is just one massive bear pennant in the #sp500 $spx... It looks like one to me.

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

1 year

$vix at lowest level since January 13, 2022... weird

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

1 year

Based on this data from Bloomberg not one stock in the #dow is down since October 12, which is mind-blowing.

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

2 years

I do not think today's closing low in the #sp500 was enough to satisfy the 2008 analog

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

1 year

#sp500 of today vs. #sp500 of 2001

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

3 months

$nvda looks like $tsla in 2021

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

2 years

2022 vs. 1937 #sp500 analog

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

2 years

The #sp500 of 2008 vs. $spx of today, what next?

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

11 months

I blocked more than 400 people today that used to follow me. Thank you to those who appreciate the work and effort I put into this regularly, whether I am right or wrong.

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

7 months

3 rallies of 4% or more since mid-July, all with the same structure. We'll see if this one does the same.

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Michael J. Kramer

@MichaelMOTTCM

1 year

Suddenly, the market is beginning to see things the Fed's way. With the SEPTEMBER Fed Funds Futures now trading at 5.05!

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