Florida Data and Redistricting Guy (He/Him). Lefty Lutheran. Politics, religion, and wrestling. Sign up for my substack! This election is going to kill me
Tomorrow marks 2 years since the Russian Invasion of Ukraine
My latest newsletter lays out the importance of continuing to back this nation in its fight, as well as discus a major series of Ukraine history articles I’ll be releasing this year
@Lemommeringue
they use a underground hotspring water that has a lower freezing point and the roads have a sloped draining system
thats why it isn't everywhere, only places where it works well
Communists in 1932 Germany said same “fuck it let’s overthrow it” thing
They all died in prison camps along with the 10 million Jews/gays/Romani they threw under the bus along with tens of millions of civilians killed in the wars that followed
I despise this sentiment
Every Nevada democrat was mailed a ballot. Anyone unhappy with Biden could have written “non of these candidates” - just like we saw on the GOP primary
But fact is, democrats like Biden. The base likes him.
Maybe Twitter doesn’t.
Note. ALL FOUR Republican Congresspeople from Utah voted for national same sex marriage
Mormon's are nicer than white Evangelicals. Example
#8784048
Amazing shift in politics over the last 14 years (remember Prop 8)?
Christmas Article! 🎄🎅🏼
How did the neighborhood from Home Alone vote?
The real villags of Winnetka, IL used to be a solidly Republican upper-income suburb. The MAGA movement is pushing if to democrats. 2022 saw the biggest democratic gains yet
I wrote about this in 2019, but there was ample bipartisan support for getting rid of the Electoral College in the late 1960s, when, in the aftermath of the close 1968 election, Congress nearly passed a constitutional amendment to abolish it.
All of these are true
1) Biden should not have run again because his age is a negative
2) Its also likely a contested primary could have opened party fissures that hurt the party in November
3) The age issue is optics fueled by horrible press reporting (Biden is fine)
NEW: an ideological divide is emerging between young men and women in many countries around the world.
I think this one of the most important social trends unfolding today, and provides the answer to several puzzles.
Biden isn't the problem, its the complete lack of civic understanding about younger people about what a president can or cannot do
Bernie could have won in 2020 & we'd be in the same position
David, get your generation in line, end of story, or you won't have a future election
If Biden can’t adequately and immediately address the mass drop he has had in the polls with young people there is no path to victory. Simply wanting it to be different or acting like there is no problem doesn’t change the fact we have a major problem.
Today marks the anniversary of the ratification of the 19th Amendment, giving women the guaranteed right to vote
Here is the US House Vote, which passed in May of 1919.
I think I notice a pattern
#19thAmendment
#19thAmendmentDay
I am devastated to hear that Bob Graham has passed away. Graham was elected Governor in 1978 and US Senator in 1986. He was incredibly popular in both offices and his legend lives on.
I honor him how I know best, showing his landslide 1998 re-election
You will be missed Sir
Short-end, Tom Keen won at least 70% of NPA voters
If he won ever a handful of GOP voters, its maybe 68-71%. If parties remained largely unified, he's closer to 71%-73%
Just stunning margins
#flapol
#sayfie
Your party…founded the KKK.
Your party…wrote Jim Crow.
You’re party…filibustered the Civil Rights Act of 1964.
Your party…has a sitting governor (VA) who featured a picture of a Klansman in his yearbook.
Your party…opposes school choice, THE top civil rights issue today.
The last time abortion was on the ballot in Florida was 2012
That year, the legislature put up a measure that affirmed abortion wasn't protected by privacy and also aimed to restrict funding
Pro-Choice (NO) got 55%.
I do think pro-choice has path to 60% this year
#flapol
For next year I’m gonna make something very clear
1). If you plan to vote for Trump
Or
2). You plan to deny Biden your vote for leftist reasons
You are worthless in my eyes. A traitor to humanity & liberal democracy. Your decision is incompatible with decency or intelligence
Indian Removal Act - a law that would be considered genocide by the modern UN laws
Davy Crockett, the lone Tennessee NO vote, said "I believed it was a wicked, unjust measure"
It’s a mere formality at this point, but the 2024 election will be Biden v Trump
And I am all in on Biden.
And if you are not, you don’t need to follow me. Don’t care if it’s from the right or the left. You are morally obligated to vote to stop that wanna-be dictator
Hi LGBT in same state here. While I also would love for Biden to invade Florida - I fear it might start a massive war.
I tend to blame DeSantis for our problems. Not Biden, who is not a king
Also Andrew Gillum’s fault for running for governor despite having ethical baggage
In 2020, I voted for Biden. Since then, my state banned gender-affirming care for minors, censored LGBTQ studies, and made it a criminal misdemeanor for me to use the women’s restroom at my college.
We’re done hearing “vote harder.” It’s time to organize:
The NY court made the correct decision in a vacume from a legal and logical standpoint. The map was garbage.
But there is a real problem in how GOP courts let this stuff pass on their side. The state-level asymetry is a real problem.
Redistricting is broken in this country
BREAKING: The New York Court of Appeals, the state's highest court, has voided congressional and State Senate maps drawn by Democrats that would have benefited their candidates.
Story TK.
Decision here:
In 2020, Key West passed three referendums to regulate cruise ships. All passed easily. A measure on environmental issues got 81%
The florida legislature overrode these after a port owner gave DeSantis’ campaign a million dollars
Read about it here
Key West is in the middle of the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary, which limits some fishing and other maritime activity to save the environment
And yet….
More than 900,000 Republicans than Democrats voted in Florida for this elections
Republicans made up 45% of the vote, Democrats just 33%
The Turnout difference was 67% vs 52%, a 15 point difference in turnout. It has NEVER been that bad.
More coming in days ahead
#flapol
Here we go, the results for the HD35 special election
Tom Keen flipped this seat for the Democrats, winning by just over 400 votes and just under 3%
As discussed before, the vast bulk of the vote comes from the eastern Orlando area, lots of empty land otherwise
#flapol
In July last year, I posited that DeSantis scheduled the HD35 special for after Iowa because he didn't want a loss to cause a bad news cycle before the caucus
Well, DeSantis lost the Iowa caucuses, and his party lost HD35
#flapol
#sayfie
Ron DeSantis has scheduled special elections
HD118, a very likely GOP hold, will be held in December
But HD35, a Biden +4 seat that could flip democratic, is January 16
One day after the Iowa caucuses.
Why? So that a flip won’t look bad for Ron until post that.
#flapol
In last nights Michigan Democratic Primary, all eyes were on Dearborn for the “uncommitted” push
Uncommitted won 56% of the city, but absolutely dominated in the Arab-heavy east, taking over 80% in several precincts
#Dearborn
#MichiganPrimary
In Miami-Dade's HD118, a majority-Cuban district, Democrat Johnny Gonzalo Farias lost by 6% to Republican Mike Redondo
This is a massive improvement from Trump's 17 point win and DeSantis' 37! point win
This seat used to be swingish pre-2018, its back
#flapol
#sayfie
Its Halloween season! 🎃 To begin my 31 day
#SpookyMaps
series, I start by offering a look at a passion project of mine for years, looking at Coroner elections in America
Over 1,000 counties still elect coroners on partisan ballots. See details in link
The Democratic Party, as of today, is the party of Wall Street, not Main Street.
That is the biggest reason why Donald Trump likely becomes President again.
Until the foundation of our political & economic system changes, arguing lesser of two evils is a waste of time.
Here it is. The 2022 Kentucky Abortion referendum by precinct. The measure would have stated you had no right to an abortion. The NO (pro-choice side) won by 4%.
I wrote about this referendum - and future analysis I have planned - in this substack
Harry Reid was a badass Mormon Democrat who was a boxer, took on the mob in Vegas (including assaulting a mob associate), transformed Nevada, AND pushed through Obamacare while keeping a caucus of Ben Nelson and Bernie Sanders united.
The man is a king.
You know what, good for her
Rather than drag NJ Democrats through a vicious and expensive primary (I assume Kim is gonna walk through the primary now) - you realize you don't have the votes and call it a day
More folks can learn from this
Anti-gay, right wing candidates for the Eau Claire, Wisconsin School board failed to win any races last night. Two incumbents and an LGBT ally won their races - thanks to strong support in the city proper
Confirmed: The 3 school board candidates who ran on anti-LGBT platforms in Eau Claire, Wisconsin, lost tonight.
The election took place in a context of violent threats against the board's LGBT-inclusive policies:
A few weeks ago, Pennsylvania voters approved a constitutional amendment that banned discrimination based on race or ethnicity
This was a bridge too far for three counties
Election Day in Florida is blood red. Here is eday is the biggest counties
Miami-Dade: GOP +7
Broward: DEM +3
Palm Beach: GOP +18
Hillsborough: GOP +20
Pinellas: GOP +25
#flapol
#sayfie
Voter turnout in Florida as of this morning
Yesterday's "Souls to the Polls" closed the gap a bit, thanks to a surge of black voters. However, Republicans still maintain a clear turnout advantage, and election day is still expected to be R-favored
#flapol
#sayfie
Last night, Washington DC Mayor Muriel Bowser won re-election with just under 50% of the vote; running strongest in white, upper-income neighborhoods. Her strongest opponent was Comm. Robert White, who did well in liberal white areas and heavily black neighborhoods
#DCision22
It is actually not politically beneficial for Ron to do this. This is in-the-weeds stuff voters don't care about.
What it does reveal is Ron's massive character flaw - he HATES being made a fool of. He will burn things down rather than admit defeat.
Boom.
@GovRonDeSantis
vows Disney will not win battle with state. Says Fla Leg will void development agmt & says since Disney "opened" things back up the state will "look" at hotel taxes, look at putting tolls on roads, look at developing property owned by new district
“Unprocessed” means they have not yet separated out what they are
“Other write ins” is where ceasefire is
Why is the far left so bad at understanding election reporting?
Andy Beshear has secured a 5% win in the Kentucky Governor Election
Beshear made net gains in a vast majority of counties, including major suburbs/exurbs, but even in many rural communities
A very strong win
#kypol
#kygov
First map of the night. In Hillsborough County, right-wing Judge Jared Smith, who made national news for denying a minor's abortion because of her "poor grades" (decision was reversed) as lost
I covered this race here
#flapol
#sayfie
The biggest State Senate battle in Florida is set
Prominent civil rights attorney Daryl Parks is challenging Republican Corey Simon for this Biden +3 seat
Simon won the seat in 2022 and is easily the most vulnerable Republican up this year
#flapol
#sayfie
Here's one to watch: Tallahassee Democrat
@darylparks
enters race against incumbent Republican Corey Simon
@csime90
for
@FLSenate
District 3. Simon flipped the seat in 2022. Match-up between 2 prominent Black men: Simon a frmr football star & Parks a well-known atty
On this day in 1965, LBJ signed the Voting Rights Act into law. Just three days earlier, the final house vote on the bill took place. The measure easily passed, but was widely rejected by the Jim Crow south
#VRA
#VotingRights
Florida DEMs have gotten what I believe to be their strongest recruit against Rick Scott in the
#FLSEN
race
DMP won a Dade congressional seat in 2018, knocking off incumbent Carlos Curbelo
Even losing in 2020, she outran Biden, nearly holding amid a red swing
#flapol
#sayfie
My name is Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. I'm an immigrant, a Latina, and a mother.
I'm not afraid to take on anyone who doesn't put Florida first. That means you, Rick Scott. That's why I'm running for U.S. Senate.
Join our campaign at .
We have 5 democratic primaries today. My thoughts.
Mississippi: Biden landslide
Georgia: Biden landslide
Washington: Likely protests in Seattle area
Democrats Abroad: Very left leaning, could be big protest
N Mariana Islands: Jason Palmer looking for another win!
Another person who knows nothing of FL politics or campaigns.
Crist is popular with democrats. He won that primary easily. He's been a D congressman for 3 terms
But you CAN'T inspire your way out of a 20-to-1 resource gap
Lets not forget the 1% Crist loss in the 2014 red wave
BREAKING: We just shut down a gala honoring U.S. Senator Lisa Murkowski. Murkowski is a murderer. She incinerates us to enrich her cronies. As Chevron's top lobbyist gave her an award, we stepped in and stopped the ceremony. Respect us or expect us. 🧵
On this day in 1964, the US Congress passed the landmark Civil Rights Act
The passage came after massive lobbying efforts from MLK and LBJ and their respective allies. The Jim Crow south was near universal in opposition
#CivilRightsAct
#CivilRightsActof1964
#FL15
is a Trump +3 and DeSantis (2018) +1 seat
A nasty GOP primary, with Lee ousted, and bitter feelings all around, would be a dream for the DCCC and FL Democrats
Qualifying ends April 26
Today is my mother's memorial service. A woman who gave me my politics - i wanted to write about her home - the
#OH13
- its history - and it's recent election
When you have a bunch of 1-star reviews accusing you of being terrible at best and a scammer drug addict at worst - you only have one option
Blame the gays!
This kind of bigotry should have no place in our Tallahassee community. It is an embarrassment and the people at Rick’s Repair Shop should be ashamed of their foolish, hurtful, and wrong words.
Seems increasingly likely Wilton Manors pride tragedy was an accident by a member of the parade
And I am gonna say this now. Considering LGBT people are still attacked, harassed, and murdered in America - pardon some of us for assuming the worst. And kindly fuck off.
On Saturday, Caddo Parish held its Sheriff election.
This was a result of the the November runoff being ordered for a re-vote after Republican John Nickelson questioned several ballots.
This time, Democrat Henry Whitehorn won by 4,265 votes, becoming Caddo's FIRST black sheriff
YESSSSSS. Leader Jenne reads DeSantis tweet on house floor! You could tell some GOP members were shocked.
Literally predicted this all a week ago
#flapol
#sayfie
In Nov, Kentucky rejected a constitutional amendment that would have stated abortion was NOT a right in the state.
I'm working on a breakdown of this referendum as well as a 2018 West Virginia vote that PASSED
I'm going to look at abortion politics in the coal fields
The Senate redistricting committee approved Congressional Plan 8040 today. The full chamber will likely pass it next week. However, the state house is still working through its maps
This plan is 16/12 for Trump and 14/14 tie for 2018 Governor and 2018 Senate
#flapol
#sayfie
In honor of
#ValentinesDay
and
#BlackHistoryMonth
The 2000 Alabama referendum to officially strike out their ban on interracial marriage. The ban was already unenforceable, but still saw 40% vote NO
How widespread was Bill Nelson's 2012
#FLSEN
win? He won 24/28 Congressional districts.
This is the massive outlier. The same day, Obama only won 10/28 districts despite carrying the state.
#flapol
#sayfie
In honor or
#IndigenousPeoplesDay
- I want to highlight a critical/dark moment in our nations history
In the 1830s, Andrew Jackson pushed the forced resettlement of Native Americans to the west - a policy of genocide under UN definition
Less known, the House vote almost failed
When folks like this wake up tomorrow and see all the “unprocessed” write-ins have moved to Biden, they will then just claim fraud
No joke this lady thinks those write-ins are all “ceasefire”.
The Virginia Lt Governor primary map is absolutely captivating me. A very clear east-west divide.
Rasoul is from Roanoke while Ayala is from Prince William County
#VAprimary
#VApolitics
#vapol
Pretty mind boggling (to put it mildly) to consider the global consequences of two humdrum Democratic sexting incidents: Anthony Weiner (led to Comey letter on Hillary just before 2016 election) and NC Senate candidate (led to Manchin being the 50th vote on Build Back Better).
Final map of the year. Precinct-level results for the 2020 Presidential election in West Virginia. Overwhelming red - with a few Democratic pockets.
Had to build the shapefile from scratch
#wvleg
#wvpol
For my entire adult life, the Republican Party has used myself and other members of the LGBT community as a culture war wedge issue to scare voters. I was 17 when the gay marriage panic began. Did wonders for my mental health.
So no, LGBT-GOP voters are not my allies.
The Duval/Jacksonville Property Appraiser Election was honestly the most heartening. This is an administrative job, and Jason Fischer ran trying to act like he could control property tax rates
His loss to Joyce Morgan will ensure the office remains running smooth
#flapol
Ron DeSantis is the first
#FLGOV
Republican to win Miami-Dade since Jeb Bush in 2002
While GOP growth with Hispanics and Jewish residents is a major driver, last night a bit story was also rock-bottom turnout in the black community and other Dem pockets
#flapol
#sayfie
Ron DeSantis has scheduled special elections
HD118, a very likely GOP hold, will be held in December
But HD35, a Biden +4 seat that could flip democratic, is January 16
One day after the Iowa caucuses.
Why? So that a flip won’t look bad for Ron until post that.
#flapol
Last night, gun-control activist Maxwell Frost won the Democratic primary for the
#FL10
. Frost won with white/Hispanic democrats in the center/east.
Randolph Bracy won the heavily black western communities, which are in his state senate district
Grayson/Brown tanked
#flapol
Miami-Dade was a 30 point margin for Charlie Crist last night in Miami-Dade
Crist won across all Demographic groups, but was strongest with the black and Caribbean voters of the Northeast
#flapol
#sayfie
To the West Virginians who have put their trust in me and fought side by side to make our state better – it has been an honor of my life to serve you. Thank you. My statement on my political future:
Morning substack!
A breakdown of the 2022
#FLGOV
and
#FLSEN
elections by Congressional District - with breakdowns for some of the other redistricting plans as well
How did the gerrymander hold up? How would different maps perform?
#flapol
#sayfie
In the Georgia Senate Runoff last night, Raphael Warnock improved his raw vote margin over Herschel Walker from 37K to 90k votes
Warnock improved margins the most in the Atlanta exurbs while losing net voted in the DEM core
Turnout was the biggest factor
#GArunoff
#GASEN
Turnout in the HD118 Special
Turnout dead low, 7%. HOWEVER, notable fact that Democratic turnout TOPPED Republican turnout
This is a first in a long time in this area of Miami-Dade
Major reversal from 2022 turnout collapse
Its small, but one side was more motivated
#flapol
Wow this is a lot closer than expected for a Trump +17 seat
This is with early/absentee
Eday should be more too. I do think Redondo will win
But wow that shouldn’t be so close
How has voter registration in Florida changed from October 2020 to February 2022?
Florida went from a 0.9% DEM advantage to a 0.6% GOP advantage. Republicans have improved across all counties but Seminole.
The ancestral "dixiecrat" counties show the biggest swings
#flapol
It would be impossible for me to hear someone say Biden doesn't deserve their vote without me then calling them an idiot
Not only is he better than Trump, not only MUST people vote for him, but I am downright happy to vote for him
talked to friends today and can confirm:
Biden is seen as very old
Trump is seen as worse
Biden is seen as "not deserving" of votes
but... perhaps most importantly
most didn't think it would actually be Trump vs. Biden in 2024
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