Trade not aid?
In the early 2000s, the African Growth & Opportunity Act, aka
#AGOA
, unleashed a brief boom in African manufacturing. The China shock killed it. As Congress debates renewing AGOA, can it be revived?
New paper w/
@arvindsubraman
:
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The pressure to shut down the PA vote count is going to be insane.
Even if the 538 forecast for PA proves accurate (Biden +5), given partisan disparities in mail-in voting, Trump could hold a 16 POINT lead by the end of Tue night.
That censored World Bank paper is now online:
"aid disbursements to highly aid dependent countries coincide with sharp increases in bank deposits in offshore financial centers known for bank secrecy and private wealth management"
by
@jorgenja
et al
Happy to have co-signed this letter with 86
@CGDev
colleagues applauding our leadership's stand for trans rights, and supporting an appeal of the recent Employment Appeal Tribunal ruling.
Ouch.
Development economics, ostensibly dedicated to improving the well-being of people in developing countries, is almost devoid of people based in those countries.
- JDE editors: 2 of 69
- JPAL affiliates: 5%
- ABCDE presenters: 7%
- RCT authors: <10%
A few days aga,
@AiyarYamini
wrote in The Economist about the shrinking space for independent civil society in India.
Today the
@CPR_India
board accepted her resignation as CEO.
Case in point.
Some people like cute titles for econ papers, others hate them. Some prefer detailed, explanatory titles. But we all know the real power move is a 1-word title.
🧵
Highly anticipated World Bank audit report is out.
Finding: 9 of 15 staff members on the Doing Business team say management pressured them to manipulate data.
8 complied.
(1/n)
New from me:
“How economists got Africa’s AIDS epidemic wrong”
In the '00s, cost-effectiveness analysis said sending HIV drugs to low-income countries was a bad use of money--drugs that ended up saving millions of lives. Have we learned our lesson?
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Anybody else remember hearing stories from the late ‘00s about how many of the MIT PhD students didn’t want to take Duflo’s courses because she wasn’t a serious economist? Not enough math, yadda yadda. Perhaps apocryphal. In any case...
Lol.
2019 Economic Sciences Laureate Esther Duflo, born in 1972, is the second woman and the youngest person to be awarded the Prize in Economic Sciences.
#NobelFacts
#NobelPrize
What happened when India started feeding *100 million* school kids a day?
⬆️ School attendance
⬆️ Learning
⬇️ Malnutrition
And now...
⬇️ Malnutrition among the kids of the kids who first got fed.
ht
@MilanV
The Great Indian Poverty Debate, 2.0
A new World Bank paper says Indian poverty has fallen, but is higher than we thought. A rival study from India's IMF rep says India, like China, is approaching zero poverty.
I tried to parse the debate:
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It's
#WorldDiabetesDay
My son got diagnosed with type 1 this summer. He's doing great. Bu while he was in the hospital, I read this line in a Lancet review that still haunts me.
"In Mozambique, the life expectancy for a newly diagnosed child with type 1 diabetes is 7 months."
The Heckman curve is dead.
"In fact, the data don’t seem to support the claim that human capital investments are most effective when targeted at younger ages, and Heckman appears to agree with this"
ht
@leecrawfurd
Big results from the 10-year follow-up to Banerjee-Duflo-Sharma's ultrapoor asset transfer experiment in West Bengal.
2 cows + 30 weeks of a subsistence stipend = 20% higher consumption a DECADE later.
🚨New Paper🚨
1/2 of kids in the developing world have elevated blood lead. That explains about 1/5th of the test score gap b/n rich & poor countries.
FT coverage here:
with
@leecrawfurd
@RoryTodd12
@susannahhares
&
@rsilv_dc
Official GDP figures say India was the fastest growing major economy in the world last year.
New household survey data, withheld by the gov't, say real per capita consumption *FELL* 3.7% over a 6-year period ending in 2017/18. Down 8.8% in rural areas.
India is getting poorer.
Another day, another hidden NSO (earlier known as NSSO) survey, another scoop.
Consumer spending fell for the first time in more than four decades in 2017-18.
Consumer spending had last declined during extraordinary events in India's history.
Wow.
Results after 2 years from the first RCT of a large-scale government school feeding program in Africa show BIG benefits for poor kids:
+.22 sd in height-for-age,
+.33 sd in learning outcomes,
$66/year
by
@ElisabettAurino
et al.
Everything you know about cross-country convergence is (now) wrong.
In which
@dev_a_patel
,
@arvindsubraman
, and I take issue with a new JEL review that seems to ignore the last quarter-century of economic growth.
1/
For the past several months, I've participated in an 'External Review Panel' commissioned by the World Bank to look at the methodology behind Doing Business.
We submitted our final report Sept 1st.
The World Bank has finally released it today:
1/
So Angus Deaton is now
- pro-union
- anti-trade, and
- anti-immigration
He says he has rethought his "ethical judgments about trade-offs between domestic and foreign workers."
"Feed all the kids, and let them go to school for free"
No, really.
Our new
@CGDev
report on the economics of achieving universal education in low- and lower-middle income countries.
We just released Stata and R packages for the PovcalNet API. Estimate poverty at any poverty line, for any country, or any group of countries. More about our latest data and tools:
The World Bank says $50B could vaccinate the world. And yet for 8 months, it's failed to put up the cash.
What went wrong?
Quick thread on my new piece in
@Nature
world view:
1/
"A study in The Lancet Global Health found that between 2003 and 2015, child mortality in Afghanistan fell by 29 percent. While maternal mortality is difficult to estimate, one data set found that deaths in childbirth fell [...] nearly in half."
"In the last 30 days did you go without eating for a whole day due to lack of money?"
South Sudan: 73%
DRC: 37%
Nigeria: 33%
Chad: 32%
Daunting numbers from the World Bank's COVID-19 high-frequency phone surveys across dozens of countries.
A clever test of ideological bias among economists.
@JavdaniMohsen
and Ha-Joon Chang ask economists whether they agree or not with quotes (mis-)attributed to more or less mainstream or heterodox figures.
Blog:
Paper:
Sure, minimum wages can help low-wage workers in rich countries, but in developing economies they just exacerbate informality and reduce employment, right?
New in the AER:
The World Bank's Doing Business indicators *explicitly* penalize countries for
a) having a minimum wage
b) taxing corporations
It's hardly news they're biased against left-leaning governments. But apparently World Bank went one step further.
The Africanization of global poverty
[Or, how changing the order of a stacked area chart can really add emphasis.]
World Bank, original:
The Economist, revised
Remember the Doing Business index?
Yes, it died. Mostly due to the Kristalina Georgieva cooking the books for China thing.
But data manipulation aside, was DB actually good for development?
🧵
almost cute how many debates in the foreign aid industry reflexively assume a principal-agent setup where Western governments (P) have only the best interests of the world's poor at heart, but these conniving local elites (A) keep stymying our benevolent intentions.
still just dumbstruck by this:
World Bank faked Doing Business data to help Saudi Arabia because it "would not be credible if Jordan was the top reformer" having absorbed millions of refugees and whatnot.
Dismembering journalists though: now that's a good business environment.
Myth: Immigrants and refugees significantly undermine employment and wages in destination countries.
See:
Danish refugee influx
Mariel boatlift
Fall of the Berlin wall
Bracero program
I am collecting common myths about development and development economics.
What are your favorites? Please include cites of evidence refuting them. (Myths and evidence may be descriptive or causal)
Thanks and looking forward to the responses!
After years studying the economics of education and charter schools and teacher incentives and yadda yadda, dawned on me today (with mild horror) that my worldview has basically come full circle to a bumpersticker I remember as a kid.
Super interesting:
The way we measure global poverty focuses -- inadvertently, but perhaps usefully -- pretty heavily on households' ability to cope with shocks, rather than their average income over the year.
@Josh_Merfeld
@JMorduch
The best development reads of 2018
(A totally non-systematic review, unranked, with links to some of my own blog and twitter summaries of the papers.)
1/N
As a very privileged upper-middle-class white American, for whom politics has always been sort of an abstract interest, it is a new experience to feel -- in a tangible, day-to-day sense -- that the health and safety of your family is under assault from the federal government.
"It’s better to be a poor pupil in a rich country than the reverse" -- at least as far as test scores are concerned.
@TheEconomist
has a much prettier version of my favorite graph from our "Rosetta Stone" paper with
@dev_a_patel
.
Who are the global top 1%?
"The threshold for an individual to enter the global top 1% in 2012
is an annual income of about PPP $50,600 per capita"
About 37% of those people live in the U.S., and about 4.6% in China.
by Sudhir Anand &
@pdsegal
Do you think the World Bank should lend money to governments that undermine democracy and human rights?
Tuesday will see an interesting test case, with a board vote on $500m for Tanzania.
Excellent idea!
"World Bank staff call for canceling Spring Meetings — permanently"
- 10,000 roundtrip flights
- $57m to organize
- Same CO2 as driving 17,000 cars for a year
via
@AlterIgoe
Fun paper: behavioral econ games with World Bank and DFID staff finds...
1. they're irrationally biased against minimum wage laws.
2. subject to sunk cost fallacies when greenlighting disbursements for doomed projects
3. more risk averse professionally than personally
Cosmetic tweet: We spent an embarrassingly long time formatting this simple graph. Always interesting to see the choices good data viz people make to improve your work.
CGD blog vs The Economist
The idea of being in Delhi right now, with parents dying for lack of oxygen, scrambling to exploit your social connections for a lead that'll keep them alive -- I've never lived through anything remotely like it, and yet it feels so terrifyingly relatable. Pure nightmare fuel.
"Experimental evidence on scaling up education reforms in Kenya"
@TessaBold
11 years after we started this project, and 5 years and multiple rejections after first submission, nice to see this finally in print.
RIP
@MwangiKimenyi
1956-2015
World Bank suspends its Doing Business report while it investigates "A number of irregularities {that} have been reported regarding changes to the data"
Two pretty damning RD graphs for AEA's 'chart of the week' from new Sheetal Sekhri paper:
Getting into an elite college in India...
1. Doesn't improve your college exit-exam scores.
2. But does massively increase your salary.
We were nervous about Halloween, as Harry Potter got diagnosed with type 1 diabetes a few months ago.
Solution: the Candy Fairy™. Leave your candy in the fireplace overnight and she converts it into Legos.
Am I the only one who seems to find it impossible to concentrate on any one thing for more than 30 seconds now? (Down from my usual 60, maybe.) Strategies people are finding effective?
What do empirical macroeconomists actually do?
Decided I should read something by Emi Nakamura, and found this review a great intro for applied micro people. Fascinating intellectual history.
ht
@snaidunl
Every Morehouse Class of 2019 student is getting their student debt load paid off by their commencement speaker.
This could be the start of what’s known in Econ as a ‘natural experiment.’ Follow these students & compare their life choices w their peers over the next 10-15 years.
RIP Benno Ndulu, 1950-2021
An intellectual giant in the economics of African development whose impact on the material well-being of millions of Tanzanians today is hard to quantify -- but also probably hard to overstate.
1/
On a panel today I literally had to stand up for colleagues I respect & admire at
@CGDev
after they were attacked by a World Bank official as "marxists", as a way to delegitimize their analysis.
If you're unwilling to respectfully engage with criticism, stay home.
🚨 New RCT results 🚨
"Beyond Short-term Learning Gains: The Impact of Outsourcing Schools in Liberia after Three Years" -- by
@marome1
and me.
Working paper:
Policy brief:
Thread:
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New study finds that Jeff Sachs' Millennium Village in northern Ghana had small or null effects; the Big Push did not appear to break the Poverty Trap HT
@m_clem
The revenge of the places that don't matter
ht
@paulkrugman
-- Economies tend toward agglomeration.
-- Politics are often built on territorial representation.
-- Result: the train wreck of current politics.
Top research accomplishments in the 2010s:
1. Failed to resubmit an R&R from the '00s. Officially letting it go.
2. Missed an R&R by a year in my spam folder.
3. Have yet to submit papers from 2 RCTs in 1st half of decade.
4. Published a paper started in 2007...in 2018.
How many people have died in India during the pandemic?
There's no truly satisfactory answer.
@abhishekecon
@arvindsubraman
and I have a new paper presenting 3 alternative estimates from 3 different sources, and discussing flaws of each.
1/
Amazing stat from Bangladesh:
64% of Rohingya refugees are willing to forego cash transfers in order to keep working part time for the same amount of money.
ht
@svrozo
Forthcoming in the AER:
Why don't Ugandan farmers produce higher quality maize? It pays zero economic return. Training doesn't help. But create a market for quality and farmers will supply it and reap big gains.
From 1999 to 2009, China increased post-secondary enrollment by 6-fold (!) and raised the share of the urban labor force with a college degree by 60%.
Wage returns to college didn't fall.
#skillbiasedtechnicalchange
ht
@hceconomics
East Africa divergence….
In USD terms, Kenya per capita GDP is roughly x2 Tanzania’s, which is roughly x2 Malawi’s.
In 2003 they were nearly identical.