Joshua Bull @JoshuaABull Twitter profile

Pinned Tweet

Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

4 years

This is crazy!

Fantasy Premier League

@OfficialFPL

4 years

Following end of season checks, final standings have been updated. We can confirm that Joshua Bull is the official 2019/20 #FPL champion. Congratulations @JoshuaABull 👏

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Last Seen Profiles

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

4 years

If I'm reading this right, I've just beaten 7,628,966 other people at Fantasy Football! Unfortunately there were 7,628,967 other players, but I'll definitely take second place. Well done @TooGoodFPL for nailing the finish! #FPL #FPLCommunity

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

3 years

Whenever I find myself on the wrong end of a Havertz/Mount type decision like this in FPL, I console myself with the idea that I had all my good luck a couple of seasons ago, and can just enjoy the ups and downs of playing the game. Must suck for the rest of you, though.

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

4 years

Wow, so it looks like the longest FPL season is getting even longer... For everyone tweeting, I don't know what's going on either - I had an email from FPL this morning telling me that I've won(!), but I don't know why...

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

4 years

I've been trying to find the right words to respond, and this says it all for me. Whether you think disqualification was the right decision or not, some things are more important than who gets to say they won #FPL . Don't normalise casual racism. #NoRoomForRacism #KickItOut

FPL Reuser

@Reuser5

4 years

@TooGoodFPL "It isn't much different from most of your football banter chats" ❌ "The reason for my disqualification is a moment of frustration" ❌ "It's not something I said directly towards a footballer" ❌ In a season where you got so much right, you got *everything* wrong here.

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

3 years

Think I could be on for my first 100 points of the season this week! All I need is a return from Salah, Coufal clean sheet, Antonio goal, and for Jota to score 13 goals against City

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

2 years

New FPL chip ideas: a thread.

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

2 years

I've made some bad FPL decisions this season, but I have zero regrets about deciding to ignore Ronaldo from day one

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

4 years

Lots of people asking if they should wildcard or not...I asked myself that too after a pretty dire gameweek. But looking at my team, I still can't convince myself that using my wildcard now is the best idea. (Hey, it's a thread!)

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

2 years

If you've sold Salah for Ronaldo, don't panic, the signs are bright for the future: this gameweek, Ronaldo chalked up 0.15 more xG than Mo.

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

4 years

(...and to address the obvious - clearly this isn't how I would have wanted to win, and I don't know any more than the rest of you about what's happened!)

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

2 years

If you captained Dennis, don't worry, it was a good decision at the time. Just learn and come back a better manager. (Am I doing this meme right?)

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

3 years

Ok, actual FPL tweet: Why is everyone so certain Tsimikas is a good starter? If Robertson's back in a few weeks then you're locking in a transfer at a price point that you're not likely to find a nice replacement at, and blocking a Liverpool spot at the same time.

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

2 years

Well, the good news is that with Salah not playing I'll get Reguilon's vice captain points, whenever he plays...

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

2 years

My Mum triple captained Bowen

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

9 months

The Long Con

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

1 year

Follow me for more great FPL tips

Fantasy Football Scout

@FFScout

1 year

♻️ | SUBSTITUTION ⬅️ Raheem Sterling ➡️ Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang A change within five minutes as Sterling comes off injured... 🔵 Chelsea 0-0 Man City 🏆 #FFScout | #FPL | #CHEMCI

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

3 years

Pleased to announce that the first episode of our new FPL podcast will be dropping today with celebrity co-hosts Magnus Carlsen and Patrick Bamford! This week we take a deep dive into how managers use FPL knowledge in real life team selection, with special guest Pep Guardiola

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

3 years

I saw three tweets yesterday about why small sample sizes can cause problems in interpreting statistics accurately, and only one tweet that thought it wasn't an issue. I'm really glad that 75% of people get it now, it gives me hope as a mathematician.

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

3 years

Sure, Mendy and Kepa are good, but my favourite Chelsea goalkeeper has to be [][200~Bettinelli[][201~

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

2 years

Think I've decided on a plan for the new DGWs. I'm going to buy good players with reasonable fixtures that I think will score points, and put them in my fantasy football team.

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

4 years

Thanks everyone for the lovely comments on last night's talk! It's now available on youtube - if you have any in depth questions feel free to ask them there, I'm going to reply to some later on. Or pop it on twitter, hopefully I'll see!

Can maths tell us how to win at Fantasy Football? - Joshua Bull

Oxford Mathematician Josh Bull won the 2019-2020 Premier League Fantasy Football competition from nearly 8 million entrants. So how did he do it? Did he by a...

www.youtube.com

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

3 years

Make FPL differential again #MFPLDA

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

4 years

This gameweek for me has been: open the BBC sport app...hit head against the wall a few times...close the app...go and do something else and pretend football doesn't exist. At least Ipswich won.

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

4 years

Well choosing Vardy over Werner is really looking like a big brain move at the moment, isn't it?

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

3 years

Some might think I've offended the FPL twitter template enough for one day, but here goes the next one: I'm pretty heavily leaning towards no Bruno at the moment...

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

4 years

I have a guilty confession - Saints are my second team! I'm an @IpswichTown fan really, but FPL only lets you pick a premier league team to support and I was a student in Southampton so tend to follow them more than the others!

The Editor

@FPLEditor

4 years

Joshua Bull, I salute you sir! If you are on Twitter, let's hear from you Currently no.1 in #FPL , some distance ahead of 2nd (38pts) We would all LOVE to know how you have done it, a huge improvement on your previous best of 1.3m Let's do a video podcast, fellow Saints fan 😃

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

4 years

Hearing a lot of rumours about this "Messi" guy coming to #FPL . Is he any good? Might risk him instead of Soucek if he's less than £5.5m.

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

2 years

Think I'm probably going to captain Salah this week. I thought a lot about Haaland, and then remembered that I still don't own him for some reason so decided that probably wasn't an option after all.

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

4 years

This aged well! Every time I go for a run, someone I own seems to score. If this keeps happening, I'm going to be really healthy by the end of the season.

Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

4 years

Well choosing Vardy over Werner is really looking like a big brain move at the moment, isn't it?

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

2 years

FPL twitter advice: the good news is, you don't have less than 11 players this week. The bad news is, you have fewer than 11. The difference comes down to whether it's countable or not. Having FEWER than 11 players gives you LESS chance of accumulating points. Happy to help.

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

4 years

My advice to Paul Lambert for next season based on FPL - see if we can get hold of Kevin De Bruyne somehow, he's pretty good at this football thing!

I(P)SWICH TOWN

@IpswichTown

4 years

🏆 Town fan @JoshuaABull is the new Fantasy Premier League champion 👏 Congratulations, Joshua! #itfc

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

3 years

@FPL__Raptor Don't worry, it's actually quite straightforward! There's a transfer tab on the website - it's not that obvious at first, but once you've found it it lets you swap your current players out for other ones that you don't own. Hope that helps!

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

2 years

Can't believe Pep captained Dias, everyone knows his ceiling is way less than basically anyone else in the squad

Manchester City

@ManCity

2 years

⭐️ Your City XI to face Newcastle! ⭐️ XI | Ederson, Cancelo, Dias (C), Laporte, Zinchenko, Rodrigo, De Bruyne, Bernardo, Mahrez, Jesus, Sterling SUBS | Steffen, Stones, Ake, Gundogan, Grealish, Fernandinho, Foden, Palmer, Wilson-Esbrand #ManCity | @HaysTechnology

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

3 years

"If in doubt, captain Scott McTominay"

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

3 years

Negative things I learned today: If you're drinking Diet Coke from a wine class while in a Zoom meeting, people will assume it's red wine Positive things I learned today: sounds like you can happily drink red wine in Zoom meetings as long as you tell people that it's Diet Coke

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

3 years

My last minute change of Chilwell to Dias has not aged well

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

2 years

It wasn't me, I promise

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

3 years

Mo Salah is really quite good at football, isn't he? This is as hot as my hot takes get today

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

2 years

I'd like to take this opportunity to remind you all of exhibit A

Andy

@LetsTalk_FPL

2 years

Last tweet on Pukki for this morning. His expected goal involvement last night was 0.00. Absolutely nothing, No shots, no chances created. Oops.

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

3 years

Time to log in to twitter for a quick check on my no Bruno punt...

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

3 years

Haven't owned Fernandes this season until this week, feels great to finally get in on this crazy dopamine rush #fpl

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

2 years

Man U fans trying to get the game tonight cancelled is the epitome of football fans throwing their toys out of the pram because things aren't going their way

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

3 years

Thinking of pioneering the "0-5-2" formation this week #FPL

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

4 years

Finally pulled the trigger on my #fpl wildcard team...should be an exciting (/stressful) Sunday! Now watch me spend all of tomorrow morning flip flopping. Good luck to Chris McGowan, @TooGoodFPL , @MagnusCarlsen , and anyone else with the chance to leapfrog us all and win!

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

3 years

Huge shout out to @goodteamonpaper ! I saw a few of these floating around twitter and asked if they could make me one from that season I did well in. Despite FPL removing the data each season, they took my old spreadsheet and turned it into this beauty! It is gorgeous. Thanks!

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

1 year

Well this is just getting silly now

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

2 years

THE EGYPTIAN KING Played any time before the start of the next gameweek: allows you to retrospectively change your captain to Salah.

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

4 years

This has got to be the lowest scoring FPL gameweek in at least 2 or 3 seasons. *Checks notes* Sorry, let me try that again: This has got to be the lowest scoring FPL gameweek in at least 2 or 3 weeks.

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

4 years

A lot of people are commenting on my last post saying that FPL has ruined your day...don't let it! Remember it's a game, sometimes you win and sometimes you lose. If you're spending your Sunday swearing at the TV, go for a walk or something instead - it's lovely out there today!

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

4 years

Couldn't decide on Auba vs Salah for captain this week. How do you settle that sort of a tiebreaker?

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

4 years

Random FPL question: does anyone know some of the most successful teams (from any season) which are 'managed' by a computer? As in making transfers based only on stats, deep learning, other algorithms etc?

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

3 years

Just been sent this... No comment.

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

3 years

Vardy obviously thought he was Vydra. I can see the mix up

Fantasy Premier League

@OfficialFPL

3 years

Goal - Own goal (VARDY) Assist - WESTWOOD Leicester 0-1 Burnley (12 mins) #FPL #LEIBUR

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

1 year

I'm not planning to share my predictions for every game, but just for fun here's what my model says about the opening match

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

3 years

For anyone wondering, I ended up at 47,172 this season. I hear top 50k is the new top 10k, so I'll chalk it up as a good result 😉

James Egersdorff

@JEgersdorff

3 years

Hope you’ve enjoyed the season. Credit to anyone top 50k which I think is now the benchmark. Top 10k is real Champs League stuff and anything above that is now a really special achievement Big congrats to everyone who’s done well or learned new skills & improved this year

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

4 years

....aaaand we're off! #FPL and #Maths coming together in perfect harmony. I hope.

Oxford Mathematics

@OxUniMaths

4 years

Oxford Mathematics Public Lecture: Joshua Bull - Can maths tell us how to win at Fantasy Football?

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

4 years

I would like to take full credit for anyone who thinks my lecture gained you points. If you think it lost you points, that's your fault, leave me out of it 😉

FPL Raptor (Ross)

@FPL__Raptor

4 years

Just finished watching @JoshuaABull ’s brilliant talk on the role of mathematic modelling in FPL. Absolutely outstanding 👏🏼 two things I’ve taken from it for this week: Roll my transfer. Captain Aubameyang.

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

2 years

People who got stuck on Haaland captain should learn to just do transfers earlier, then you could have got your Cancelo captaincy sorted in plenty of time, like me

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

2 years

DGW captains are a complete trap. ...but what if one of those games is against Norwich? Minus 8 hit it is

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

4 years

Glad they added that assist back in, it brings my gameweek score all the way up to 2.65 Bamfords

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

3 years

Just when you think there's a way in to Pep Roulette, he mixes things up by leaving EVERYONE out of the team

Wee Rogue 🐍

@wee_rogue

3 years

Skill-weighted probability of starting in Man City's GW16 fixture away to Everton, based on supporters' predicted XIs.

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

3 years

I've got to the stage of my #FPL season where I'm seriously considering taking a hit to bring in Joelinton

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

3 years

Triple Leeds has gone well today

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

4 years

There may be some questionable picks here, but I feel like PVA is the glue that really brings my team together this week

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

2 years

NO VARDY, NO PARTY Can be played in any gameweek when you own Jamie Vardy. Has no effect on your FPL team, but you get an exclusive invite to a party after the match with other Vardy owners, and possibly the man himself.

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

3 years

If you only have a moment to consider stats in FPL, use xG, the expected value of the goals distribution. If you have a second moment, use it to consider variance. If you have a third moment, you might want to think about skewness. Use your fourth moment to describe kurtosis.

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

4 years

Literally not sure how this happened, but I think I might have to get it framed...

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

2 years

THE PEP ROULETTE Allows you to choose up to three Man City placeholder players. Before kick off, Pep gets to decide which ones they are.

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

2 years

Just had one of those feelings this week Football played on spreadsheets made of grass etc etc

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

3 years

Looking ahead, gameweek four is going to pose a real problem for a lot of FPL managers. It's going to be really hard to target Arsenal if we have to triple up on Norwich by then...

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

3 years

OK, serious question: what do we sing once football has actually come home?

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

2 years

Raphinha could score 20 goals on Sunday, end up with 100 points for the gameweek, and people would still complain that he couldn't get double digits

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

3 years

@FFS_Community A

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

4 years

I'm really hyped for this!!! I get to talk about how #maths can help us with #FPL , even if it's not an exact science. I've had a lot of fun modelling Fantasy Football over the last few weeks, and it might even give a bit of insight into different approaches to the game...!

Oxford Mathematics

@OxUniMaths

4 years

The @premierleague season starts on 12 Sept & that means so does the @OfficialFPL . So how you going to play it this time? @JoshuaABull @OxUniMaths won last season's comp from 8 million entrants. He kicks off the new @OxUniMaths Public Lecture season on Twitter by telling you how

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

4 years

I'm planning to make a video before the start of next season discussing these types of differences in strategy, and some other maths-based things relating to FPL. Watch this space!

CnC

@chiplesschaps

4 years

@ShivaFPL @TooGoodFPL More than one way to skin a cat mate. Think I saw a thread by @FPL_Swe on the then No1 @JoshuaABull 's season review. Rarely switched premiums, hardly took a hit & his squad management was so good he didn't use his WC till the very end :-)

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

2 years

I'm thinking of taking a minus eight. EIGHT! What happened to the good old days when I wouldn't even consider a minus four...?

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

3 years

The nice thing about GW7 is that the template team is probably going to turn from entirely Red to entirely Blue. I just want variety, people.

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

3 years

Of course, the real big brain #fpl move is capping Cancelo in the knowledge that he won't play at all and you can have Salah instead

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

3 years

...this is what I've ended up with. No Bruno the biggest risk, I think, and I'd like Buendia, but I like the money structure and can't see anything that's a guaranteed fire in a couple of weeks time! Famous. Last. Words. Good luck everyone!

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

8 days

WE ARE PREMIER LEAGUE!!!!

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

1 year

A lot of people were asking for the bracket yesterday - here's my prediction for the "most likely" winner of each stage. Although this is "most likely", it's still statistically very unlikely to be spot on - just more likely than other alternative scenarios!

University of Oxford

@UniofOxford

1 year

NEW: Oxford mathematical model predicts route to the men's @FIFAWorldCup ⚽️🏆 The model - created by @OxUniMaths ' @JoshuaABull - forecasts: 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England to lose in the quarter-final 🇦🇷 Argentina vs Brazil in the semi-final 🇧🇷 Brazil to beat Belgium in the final #WorldCup

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

2 years

Very pleased to announce that a good friend of mine has been named interim manager of Burnley! At least, that's what he said when I asked who the club had named.

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

2 years

Yeah, they call me Mr Premier League 😆 Exciting times, here at @SouthamptonFC for my FPL prize match! Almost didn't make it because of the trains, so here's hoping that Broja gets a hatrick or two (I'm not greedy)

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

3 years

Struggling to find a table at a pub? Just book a couple of negative tables in first to free up some space.

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

3 years

Is KDB running for president?

Kevin De Bruyne

@KevinDeBruyne

3 years

The story continues! 💙 #KDB2025

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

3 years

Merry Christmas Everyone! Just got to the bit in Love Actually where Colin Firth leaves his family to sit in a queue at Dover while he waits for a Covid test so he can run off to France and get EU citizenship by marrying his Portuguese cleaner. Seems a fitting end to 2020 tbh

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

4 years

Me describing myself on grant applications:

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

3 years

No Lamptey, but at least I have PVA coming off the bench so that should be worth a few points. Just let me dream, please

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

3 years

Just in case anyone didn't have him on their radar, I've heard quite good things about this Ronaldo guy and reckon he might be a pretty good FPL asset. One for the watchlist, maybe.

Andy

@LetsTalk_FPL

3 years

Remember when I said I'm happy to wing a wildcard... 👇

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

3 years

My prediction for Turkey vs Whales is strongly dependent on where the match happens. This one appears to be on land, which surely has to favour the Turkey

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

3 years

@lateriser12 .tnempoleved retcarahc tuoba hcum oot erac t'nod dna stolp detacilpmoc evol uoy fi taerg s'taht smlif tpecnoc fo epyt "xob-elzzup" fo tros esoht fo eno s'ti kniht I

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

2 years

Well this aged well...

Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

2 years

Can't believe Pep captained Dias, everyone knows his ceiling is way less than basically anyone else in the squad

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

4 years

Reviewer: "The way you've explained this is a bit complicated, can you reference another paper?" The paper that I want to cite:

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

2 years

"...in conclusion, Liverpool is quite nice, really. Thank you for coming to my TED talk."

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

4 years

Over lockdown I thought I'd broken my tea addiction as I've had roughly half the number of cups a day I would in the office. But I had to be out of the house today so I'm "working from work" now. Now I realise that my mugs at home are about twice the size of the ones here...

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

2 years

PRISONERS DILEMMA Each week, you and your minileague rival can choose to play the chip or not. If only one of you plays it, that person gets double points from the vice captain as well as captain. If both of you play it, neither of you get double points from your captains.

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

4 years

Apologies to all the #FPL people following me expecting deep insights - not only am I just getting weirdly lucky, but most of my tweeting is about maths :P

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

2 years

I have three maths degrees, and just successfully added 5 to 21 to get 25

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Joshua Bull

@JoshuaABull

4 years

(But if you picked Son, Kane, DCL, Zaha, Costa and Bamford, we're not friends any more 😉)

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