Helen Thompson POLIS @HelenHet20 Twitter profile

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Helen Thompson POLIS

6 months

The paperback of Disorder: Hard Times in the 21st Century is out today with a new chapter that begins with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February last year, the day the hardback appeared.

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

2 years

Long-term German energy reliance on Russia arose from the acute foreign energy dependency predicaments Germany has faced for more than a century. 1/11

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

2 years

This is going to be normal politics until politicians realise that crisis not growth is the new norm and that the world’s realities are shattering the platitudes of partisan politics and career ambition at an ever more rapid pace.

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

5 years

Theresa May may join a line of PMs brought to resignation by the EU question, but she also joins Pitt the Younger and Gladstone in having a premiership end over the Irish question.

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

2 years

It’s been a privilege to contribute to Talking Politics and before it Election. But good things also reach their end, and this seems the right time for new beginnings. Thanks very much indeed to everyone who has listened.

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

2 years

My book Disorder: Hard Times in the 21st Century will be published by Oxford University Press later this month.

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

3 years

A big difference between Labour in Leave England and Labour in Leave Wales is that Remain Labour has an anti-English bent and Remain Welsh Labour embraces Wales.

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

4 years

The Eurozone is trapped because Italy can’t be a member without shared debt, there won’t be shared debt with Italy inside the Eurozone, and the Eurozone was designed to function without shared debt because Italy wasn’t suppose to be in the Eurozone.

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

2 years

It feels pretty strange to be publishing a book in part about Europe’s long-standing geopolitical fault lines around Russia on this day. But Disorder is my attempt to understand the world in which we now live. It can be bought here:

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

4 years

The point of a monarchy is to remind us we collectively live in the seasons of time, and many years in the future people will still talk about what the Queen broadcast on Palm Sunday in this hour of crisis.

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

5 years

If the EU position is now Northern Ireland cannot ever leave the customs union that is quite a departure from the backstop is 'temporary' language of February this year.

Joint statement on behalf of Prime Minister May and President Juncker

Prime Minister May and President Juncker met today to take stock of their efforts to deliver the UK’s orderly withdrawal from the EU, in line with the process launched by them on 7 February.

www.gov.uk

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

2 years

My article 'The Habsburg Myth and the European Union', having won an award from the publisher, has escaped from its paywall:

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

2 years

The corollary of energy sanctions against Russia is using less energy. That’s what we in the rest of Europe can do for Ukraine.

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

2 years

The German misjudgement was to ignore that the dissolution of the Soviet Union created the medium- to long-term risk of an outright Russian war in Europe. 11/11

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

3 years

Minus more serious engagement with the materiality of energy, 2050 net zero will become like liberal internationalism in Afghanistan: a project at which vast sums of money are directed without any clear conception of how, given the facts on the ground, it is supposed to succeed.

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

2 years

The German sin was to pretend that its energy relationship with the SU/Russia didn’t have geopolitical consequences for others starting not with Ukraine but, in Europe, with Poland when martial law was introduced in 1981. 10/11

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

1 year

Talking Politics was a great journey, and I am really pleased that David Runciman, Catherine Carr, and I all have new podcasting ventures to show what we learned about talking about our passions from working with each other. 1/4.

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

4 years

Blaming Corbyn v blaming Brexit is not a binary. Underneath each problem is the same political problem: an aversion to Labour being a broad political coalition stretching across the country.

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

2 years

Talking Politics for the last time.

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

5 years

Parliament voted for a referendum after a party won an election with a manifesto to hold it, and some MPs reject the result. Now without an election and breaching manifestos, some in Parliament ask for another, and still think voters will vote trusting MPs to uphold the result.

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

3 years

The summer is officially over and Talking Politics will be back tomorrow.

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

5 years

Three inescapable realities: Brexit can't withstand the absence of a transition; Br democracy can't withstand Parliament delegitimating the referendum; the EU can't absorb the geopolitical shock of the breakdown of relations with its major security player +financial centre.

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

6 years

Honoured to win the Bernard Crick prize for my article 'It's still the 2008 crash' and to receive it with my former student and friend @sarahoconnor_ winning an Orwell prize.

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

2 years

It is not that ‘the Europeans grew quite comfortable in the old order’; it was western Europeans who became comfortable under the illusion that the evident disorder of the last two decades was not real.

Russia's Invasion: Putin's Attack Is Aimed at Europe

The invasion of Ukraine marks the beginning of a dangerous new era in global politics. Europe must adapt to this new reality if it wants to survive.

www.spiegel.de

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

5 years

Thoughts on the liberal rules-based order that never was.

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

3 years

Blair’s starting assumption is that Labour is the party aligned with Progress in a world with directional history, once defined by what he erroneously thought was an indestructible globalisation, now replaced in his thinking by a technological revolution.

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

2 years

The present European political crisis arises from a collective failure to get to grips with what the historically extraordinary peaceful dissolution of the Soviet Union entailed while Mutually Assured Destruction continued. 1/9

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

6 years

Honoured to have won The British Journal of Politics and International Relations' article of the year for 'Inevitability and contingency: the political economy of Brexit'.

BJPIR

@BritJPIR

6 years

Helen Thompson's prizewinning article, focus of today's #PSA18 Brexit Roundtable, currently free to view @PolStudiesAssoc

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

2 years

Germany's post-war trade surpluses and Germany's foreign energy dependency have always been two sides of the same coin.

Holger Zschaepitz

@Schuldensuehner

2 years

Good Morning from #Germany , which is falling as an economic powerhouse on a global scale. Germany’s trade surplus is gone. Foreign trade balance came in at MINUS €1bn in May, which is the 1st negative print since 1991 due to its energy problems & weakness in manufacturing.

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

3 years

The crux of the French problem is that Macron wants something that Germany ensures is not on offer: European strategic autonomy. Macron is then prone to making decisions as if their consequences flow from the idea and not the reality of its absence.

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

1 year

Since the idea of European ‘strategic autonomy’ is without foundations in the world as it now is and Macron offers no material path to changing the geopolitical balance of power, the only autonomy Macron realises in these interviews is the rhetorical freedom to annoy others.

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

7 years

If this exit poll is right I don't mind admitting that I understand next to nothing about British politics.

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

5 years

The argument that Leave voters were voting for something they were 'promised' by others runs into the difficulty that they actually were promised that the existing government would implement a winning Leave vote.

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

5 years

For so many people in a parliamentary party to believe they are capable of leading it, let alone be Prime Minister, is by itself indicative of a party where all discipline has broken down.

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

2 years

The post-2000 story of the EU's dependency on Russian energy is not that nobody understood the problem. It is is that the attempts to address it by turning Turkey into a transit state for alternatives failed. 1/5

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

4 months

The 1967-1975 closure of Suez Canal and the eventual geopolitical terms around its reopening show just how little US military power has been deployed to secure Red Sea transit, despite the assumption that post-1945 the US acts to guarantee global freedom of navigation. 1/8

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

2 years

Soviet gas and Germany pipes to bring the gas became the material basis of Ostpolitik. Later, it was this energy relationship with Russia that created the energy space for Gerhard Schröder to oppose the Iraq war. 7/11

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

6 years

Nixon ripped up the post war international monetary order in one weekend without a summit, without campaigning on it, and without a Twitter account.

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

2 years

As a serious fan of @TheRestHistory it was an enormous pleasure to roam about the geopolitical history of oil. with @holland_tom and @dcsandbrook and there are two parts.

Tom Holland

@holland_tom

2 years

Today & tomorrow on @TheRestHistory , we are joined by @HelenHet20 to drill down deep into the history of OIL. Today, how the thirst for it underlay so much 20th century history: war, imperialism, the works

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

2 years

I am delighted to be shortlisted for the FT Business Book of the Year 2022 along with my friend Gary Gerstle. ⁦ @glgerstle ⁩

Business book of the year 2022 — the shortlist

Finalists for the £30,000 prize explore the challenges of global capitalism, from energy politics to chip shortages

www.ft.com

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

5 years

The UK constitution is more than who has the authority to do what. It is supposed to require constant judgement shaped by the country’s history. Treating a referendum result and Parliament’s own legislation as dispensable are not acts easily rendered constitutionally benign.

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

5 months

If the United States cannot or will not maintain freedom of navigation in the Red Sea, the geopolitical plates are shifting again. For Europe this is where there is a chasm between European material interests and European military power to defend them.

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

5 years

What #BrexitUncivilWar did not conceive in its premise is that any voters on either side might have had an actual view of Britain's actual membership of the actual European Union.

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

2 years

The energy crisis can't be separated from what are now currency crises because so many energy imports, starting with oil, must be paid for in dollars. For the most exposed, this means one form or another of a debt crisis too.

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

5 years

It is becoming increasingly unclear whether it is really Brexit or the fear of a Corbyn government that is bending the constitution out of all shape.

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

2 years

But by this time the German energy companies had established production rights in western Siberia (not having any elsewhere including post-war Iraq) + heavily-energy dependent German industry faced high electricity costs that were part compensated for by cheap Russian gas. 9/11

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

10 days

It was good to talk stuff with David Runciman again, this time gold, silver, and what happens when there is just money either backed by states or created by banks.

Past Present Future

@PPFIdeas

10 days

NEW EPISODE OUT NOW! For the 2nd episode in our new series about the History of Bad Ideas, we've got the band back together! David talks to the political economist @HelenHet20 about the gold standard. Listen here...🎧

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

2 years

It came out of WWI with no empire in the Middle East and was forced to hand Deutsche Bank’s share of the Turkish Petroleum Company (with a monopoly concession in Mesopotamia) to France, leaving it with none of the world’s large oil companies and no stake in one. 3/11

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

3 years

The reality of Italian politics is that only governments headed by Prime Ministers the ECB trusts with QE can govern: take this to its logical conclusion and Italy gets Draghi.

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

3 years

Britain debated whether to Leave a phantom EU: now the actual one must be faced.

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

5 years

One consequence of Labour’s shift in Brexit policy is it has shattered even the outward pretence of a Labour-led Brexit. For Labour MPs it’s finally a binary choice: support a Johnson-negotiated WA or support Remain.

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

2 years

It was the autumn/winter of 1979, not the summer of 1990, that was the harbinger of the future:

The 1990s promised a new era of peace, but it was an illusion from the start

After the Berlin Wall fell in 1989, Europe was lulled into a false belief that the horrors of the 20th century were exhausted.

www.newstatesman.com

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

2 years

After WW2, the Truman administration opposed it importing either from the western hemisphere or the Soviet Union. Consequently, it had to rely on British imperial power to protect oil imports from the Middle East. 4/11

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

11 months

Honouring Charles Dickens, who died 153 years ago today, at his grave at Westminster Abbey where @holland_tom gave a wonderful tribute to the tremendously alive and deep spiritual imagination of this great novelist and his living legacy.

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

2 years

The energy crisis is structural and there are no short-term supply fixes. Deciding what to do starts with recognising how dangerous this situation is.

Jonathan Derbyshire

@Jderbyshire

2 years

.⁦ @HelenHet20 ⁩ on the geoeconomics of energy for ⁦ @ftopinion ⁩

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

11 months

My plan at the end of a long day, which happens to be my birthday, was to finish the last eleven pages of Cities of The Plain and just as I was about to get there I have seen the news of his death. What an extraordinary writer he was. 1/2.

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

2 years

It turned back to the Soviet Union – a position taken by the last Weimar governments and the Nazis before Hitler declared war on the Soviet Union – after the Suez Crisis because Eisenhower would not in 1956 let Britain play that role. 5/11

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

5 years

When a complete history of Brexit is written there will need to be a section on Parliament and its holidays.

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

3 years

Brexit didn’t happen for geopolitical reasons, but it had a geopolitical underpinning arising from the EU’s weak security architecture, which has since been amplified by the fracturing of US-China relations and is now entrenched in the US-UK-Australia pact.

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

4 years

We need to recognise just how dangerous this economic crisis is.

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

2 years

As gas became important from the 1960s, little of the North Sea’s oil and gas was found in German waters, and there was no equivalent of the French companies’ position in Algeria (until 1971 nationalisation). 6/11

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

2 years

Like other European powers minus Austria in the early 20th century, Germany lacked domestic oil. 2/11

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

2 years

It was the 2010s when Germany had serious alternatives through the rise of the liquid natural gas trade and from 2015 shale export. 8/11

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

5 years

This has all happened before, part X: Thomas Macaulay on what became the 1832 Reform Act.

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

1 year

Tonight is the @FT 2022 Business Book of the Year Award at @V_and_A in London. The ceremony is live at 21:45 GMT: #BBYA22

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

5 years

One can argue the merits and demerits of changing the franchise, but it takes this near complete constitutional-free-for-all to think it should be done by parliamentary sovereignty via the parties losing the last election and MPs who have defected or lost the whip.

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

5 months

I am rather taken with the cover of the Taiwanese edition of Disorder.

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

3 years

Hooked by Tinker, Tailor and reread the most; Think A Perfect Spy is his masterpiece, and love that it is a dark David Copperfield; Emotionally drawn deep into A Small Town in Germany.

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

5 years

The constitution has been a ghost for decades. We are now having our eyes opened to what that means.

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

2 years

With Mario Draghi gone, Italy is, once again, up against the reality that it is a democracy that must render elections either dangerous or meaningless.

The New Statesman

@NewStatesman

2 years

The Italian prime minister Mario Draghi has resigned. @HelenHet20 explains why, fiscally, it's a terrible time for the country to lose him.

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

4 years

Labour didn’t move from accepting the referendum result to a second referendum position: it moved from trying to use Brexit to force a general election to trying to use another referendum to stop Brexit.

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

1 year

Mine with Tom McTague: These Times @TheseTimesPod 4/4.

‎These Times: Coronation and power - Part 1 on Apple Podcasts

‎Show These Times, Ep Coronation and power - Part 1 - 1 May 2023

podcasts.apple.com

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

5 years

Constitutional fecklessness each way we turn.

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

5 years

A permanent customs union conceived by Labour as an ongoing quasi-constitutional constraint on a future Con government's ability to negotiate trade agreements cannot be the basis of a cross-party consensus.

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

5 years

Stop Brexit MPs have spent three years courting No Deal, whether by hoping the EU27 would refuse to agree a WA or by Parliament rejecting the WA, without accepting these means have their own consequences, especially when they lack a strategy to win.

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

2 years

The politics of sacrifice is returning and western politicians are no longer experienced in its ways.

The forgotten politics of personal sacrifice

For the first time in decades, Western politicians are asking people to forfeit for the greater good – and are finding it hard to judge.

www.newstatesman.com

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

5 years

Thoughts on the UK constitution and history for my first @NewStatesman column.

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

5 years

But Parliament decided several times over to reduce the debate about Brexit to whether on a fixed date the UK should leave the EU with or without a withdrawal agreement. Was it then not performing its duty?

Laura Kuenssberg

@bbclaurak

5 years

Bercow weighs in - 'this move represents a constitutional outrage. However it is dressed up it is blindingly obvious that the purpose of prorogation now would be to stop Parliament debating Brexit and performing its duty'

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

3 years

The post-Brexit EU nobody intended.

How the EU bungled Brexit

Just like David Cameron, Europe's leaders were woefully unprepared

unherd.com

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

4 years

Talking a lot of Hobbes.

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

2 years

There’s a reason why in 20th century wartime with conscript armies and a significant labour movement the response to energy and food supply problems was always rationing: letting the market determine who got to consume under conditions of scarcity was too politically dangerous.

Javier Blas

@JavierBlas

2 years

GERMANY ENERGY CRISIS: Until now, Berlin has tried to shield its citizens from the full impact of rising wholesale gas and electricity prices. But many inside Germany are now asking for prices to rise (and a lot), so demand reacts | #EnergyCrisis #Germany

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

5 years

The €zone crisis has yielded 3 structural issues for the EU: attempt to expel Greece; Brexit; and a Eurosceptic govt in Rome. Each predictable from Maastricht: the one initially ineligible to join, the one that never wanted in, and the one Germany set up the treaty to exclude.

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

4 years

If Blair thinks agreeing an election was a 'cardinal error', I am not sure he has understood the damage caused to Labour by previously resisting an election to try to ensure voters did not get a say on the withdrawal agreement.

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

2 years

The worst thing about Merkel’s position on Nord Stream 2 was that she did acknowledge that Putin should not succeed in ending gas transit through Ukraine. She just assumed it was southern European countries’ responsibility to stop him with their pipeline choices, not Germany’s.

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

5 years

If Cummings were devising slogans for Stop Brexit to advance Leave, he'd come up with a People's Vote and a Government of National Unity.

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

1 year

J.G.A.Pocock already seeing in 1991 - "the hour of Europe" - the need to get to grips with Eurasia:

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

3 months

When the US acts to try to keep the Red Sea open to US and European flagged shipping without success while Chinese and Russian vessels enjoy safe transit, the weak long-term geopolitical and domestic foundations of US power in the Middle East are mercilessly exposed.

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

3 years

Where energy is concerned it is not the 1970s, it’s harder.

Why this decade will prove more challenging than the 1970s

Politics is becoming a ruthless contest over who can access energy and at what price.

www.newstatesman.com

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

4 years

Trump started as the jesting whistleblower in search of a media platform. It was the the republic’s psychological wounds and the American geopolitical crisis that made him the protagonist who can neither win nor be defeated.

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

3 years

Biden mixed blatant disingenuousness with truth-telling. The political problem for him is as much that the dignity of the American presidency can’t bear very much reality as it is that his exit plan rested on fictions.

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

2 years

It took me 35 years after hating it at school to see what an interesting book Charles Dickens’ Hard Times is. As we bid to leave fossil-fuel civilisation behind, Dickens’ one dystopian novel seems hauntingly pertinent.

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

2 years

Macron’s victory in 2017 was heralded as a bulwark against ‘populism’. But for the structure of French democratic politics there was nothing status quo about a personal movement mobilised outside the party system. 1/2

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

5 years

Without prudence there is no constitution. Without losers' consent democratic politics falls apart. So let's in an afternoon rip up the political legitimacy of a general election and ensure the promises about honouring the referendum take their last breath.

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

5 years

Aaron's courage in his journey through terrible adversity over the past four years shone light I'll remember with gratitude for the rest of my life.

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

2 years

If we had understood the significance of what was happening in 2005, the events of the 2010s would have shocked us less:

Why 2005 was a major turning point in the 21st century

In "Disorder: Hard Times in the 21st Century", Helen Thompson explores the historical context behind today's geopolitical disorder.

bigthink.com

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

8 years

However chaotic British politics is right now, it is a symptom of a crisis of western politics and economies three decades in the making.

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

4 years

The € was a response to German monetary power. It was legally established on German terms. Germany ratified the Maastricht treaty with conditions. The € crisis was managed to finesse what the German Court might tolerate. It cannot be a shock that the German Court has a say.

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

2 years

The gas crisis is systemic. Domestic political unrest can only be shuffled around the world as a function of who can pay the most in $s for the available supply, including from China redirecting for profit cargoes for now rendered unnecessary by Zero covid + more coal production.

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

5 years

Cameron's memoir writing might be summed up from Faulkner: 'Because there is that might-have-been which is the single rock we cling to above the maelstrom of unbearable reality.'

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Helen Thompson POLIS

@HelenHet20

4 years

My just published academic article with Iain Hardie on why European banks matter for understanding American monetary power. (Requires access to Review of International Political Economy).

Taking Europe seriously: European financialization and US monetary power

This article considers the link between the financialization of European banks and US monetary power. We focus first on the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09 (GFC), arguing that crisis origins sho...

www.tandfonline.com

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