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@helenbranswell
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@HelenBranswell
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.xyz
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@helenbranswell
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No plans to join Threads. I do not belong to the Meta-verse.
Amazing! What South Korea is doing is really bending their
#Covid19
epidemic curve. Only 131 new cases today, versus 909 on Feb. 29.
It's not just China. This clearly can be done.
South Korea's success at battling back
#Covid19
is extraordinary. Only 76 cases on March 14.
Look at this curve. Amazing.
Don't focus on the blue line. Look at the green bars.
BREAKING: AstraZeneca's
#Covid19
vaccine trials have been paused as the company investigates a serious adverse event the occurred in the UK. Not clear if the unexplained illness is linked to the vaccine, or what it was.
If you have elderly people in your family or your acquaintance, teaching them how to Facetime, Skype or WhatsApp call โ if they don't know how to already โย would probably be a good thing. Social distancing is going to be very hard on the elderly.
1. China reported 0 โ zero โย domestically acquired cases of
#Covid19
on March 18.
The country reported 34 new cases, but they were all people infected abroad. As long as this virus circulates, China & other countries controlling will have to be on guard.
2. The J&J vaccine showed an 85% efficacy at protecting against severe
#Covid19
โ in multiple settings around the world, including in South Africa. It was 100% effective against hospitalization & deaths. This is important.
I knew this wasn't good on Jan 2. I had no inkling that 2.5 months later whole countries would be on lockdown, the stock market would be cratering & we would be in an epoch shaping moment.
#cravingboredom
I've been trying to get clear in my head why
@WHO
is pushing containment of
#Covid19
soooo hard, given nobody could do what China has done. I've come to the conclusion it's about slowing spread so health delivery doesn't collapse. You should read this thread.
I think most people arenโt aware of the risk of systemic healthcare failure due to
#COVID19
because they simply havenโt run the numbers yet. Letโs talk math. 1/n
I think it's been 9 days since
@CDCgov
had a
#Covid19
briefing.
That is an extraordinary length of time in a public health crisis like this. I cannot believe this is by choice.
"AP: Have you gotten your shot?
Parton: No. Iโm not going to get mine until some more people get theirs. I donโt want it to look like Iโm jumping the line just because I donated money."
@DollyParton
1. The good news:
@CDCgov
held a full scale
#Covid19
briefing today, the first in 3 months & 3 days.
The not-great news: They sidestepped most of the questions.
When you cover only 1 of the 3 holes expelling air from your respiratory tract, what really is the point?
Don't get me started on the chin-warmer crowd.
(Sorry not to credit the source. Don't know who to credit.)
So tired of reading articles that project
#Covid19
vaccine could be ready in a few months or a year without the key proviso that that doesn't mean you or I will be vaccinated on that timeline. Making/deploying vaccine for whole countries, let alone the world, is gonna take time.
I'm getting an extraordinary โย an unanswerable โย number of questions on Twitter and through email. I cannot see them all โ my Twitter feed is like a tsunami โย and I cannot answer them all.
But please know this: We're going to get through this. Really.
"It is going to be very disturbing, I will guarantee you that." โย Tony Fauci, predicting the US may hit 100,000
#Covid19
cases per day if the trajectory of the outbreak is not altered.
We're looking at hell, folks.
1. This is an important study: German researchers looked at how long
#Covid19
patients shed "viable virus" โ ie how long they may be infectious. They could not isolate virus from the throat swabs/sputum samples of mild patients post day 8.
Pray to all the gods: It really does look like the North Kivu-Ituri
#Ebola
outbreak is over. What a slog. We owe an enormous debt to so many people who worked at this for the past 20 months.
Pretty interesting report of
#Covid19
transmission during church services in Australia. Infected choir member appears to have transmitted to up to 12 church goers, some seated more than 15 meters from the choir loft. No masks. Yes, likely airborne.
Unexpected info on Spain's 2 fatal
#MPX
cases:
Both men, aged 31 & 44.
No epi link between the cases.
Neither was immunocompromised.
Neither had underlying chronic diseases.
From a presentation by Isabel Jado, director of the National Center for Virology to a
@WHO
meeting.
1. It's not the flu: This graph from a paper out today looking at excess mortality in England during the start of
#Covid19
shows clearly this is on a whole different level than influenza. They show excess mortality of the past 5 flu seasons vs. Covid. Arrows, red lettering added.
BREAKING: US
#monkeypox
sequence data suggest there are at least 2 concurrent outbreaks going on globally,
@CDCgov
says. It suggests the virus may have a foothold in places that haven't been identified & has been spreading longer than recognized.
The US
#Covid
death toll hit a horrific height today. Three quarters of a million people have died โ more than the population of Seattle.
What to me is appalling, unconscionable, is that 75,000 of those people died in the past 45 days. When the country was awash with vaccine.
For the 2nd day in a row China has reported a single domestically acquired case of
#Covid19
. It has 13 new cases, but 12 were imported from other countries.
There have been 80,894 cases, 69,601 patients have recovered & 3,237 have died.
There were unmasked shoppers in my local grocery story today. The cordons for line ups, the desk where a staffer kept tabs on how many people were in the store โ gone.
I know this probably isn't rational, but I'm not ready for this. Don't @ me.
1. Turning this into a brief thread. The prelim analysis โ 90% efficacy โ from the Pfizer
#covid19
vaccine is very encouraging news re this vaccine AND....
Preliminary data analysis of the first
#Covid19
vaccine Phase 3 trial provides very good news about the Pfizer-BioNtech mRNA vaccine. Vaccine looks to be quite efficacious, โฆ
@matthewherper
โฉ reports.
The mixed blessing of the 95% VE: When Pfizer & Moderna reported late last year that their Covid vaccines were highly effective, our expectations for these vaccines soared. It's time for us to get more realistic about what the vaccines can do.
BREAKING GOOD NEWS ALERT:
New Zealand has announced it no longer has any patients in hospital being treated for coronavirus.
It comes on the fifth straight day where no new cases have been reported.
This is what winning looks like.
๐ณ๐ฟ
Just heard Kaitlin Collins on CNN correct herself on the difference between isolate (what people infected need to do) and quarantine (what people in close contact with confirmed cases need to do). She got it right.
Impressive. We are learning.
Please stop worrying if you are overreacting to
#Covid19
. If you are, if we all are, we can breathe a sigh of relief later. In the meantime, please read this:
Move over, Spanish flu. The
#Covid19
pandemic has become the deadliest disease event in American history. The official death toll will surpass the 1918 fatality total in the next few hours. And the U.S. isn't done accruing Covid deaths, sadly.
Science journalism pro tip: The term "epidemiologist" cannot be applied to just anyone willing to opine on the direction the pandemic is heading.
Just because someone is an MD doesn't make them an epidemiologist. Ditto health economists.
Also heard a
@CDCgov
official say that the best estimate of the
#Covid19
case fatality ratio right now is between .5% & 3.5% โย or between 5 times & 35 worse than seasonal flu, which is around .1%,
So enough with the "but flu... " stuff.
This was from the CROI conference.
On Sept 20, the US
#Covid
death toll was 675,400.
Today it stands at 726,149.
That's an increase of more than 50,000 deaths in a month.
A month when the country was awash with unclaimed vaccine doses.
Future peoples will struggle to understand this.
I'm old enough to remember when
@CDCgov
held regular press briefings during pandemics & disease outbreaks.
Last one for
#Covid19
was on Aug. 21.
Aug. 21 was 8 weeks ago today.
In a year of grim news, here's something hopeful: A Chicago hospital is reporting good results with remdesivir.
#Covid19
patients responding quickly. Need to read with caution, though: there was no control arm here.
1. Short
#Ebola
thread.
The outbreak in Uganda is getting quite large. Very concerning situation. But there's been some extraordinary good news. Merck, which makes the first licensed Ebola Zaire vaccine, has found it has 100,000 bulk doses of Ebola Sudan vaccine.
This is a scientific miracle: On March 11, 2020,
#Covid19
was declared a pandemic. By March 12, 2021, one-third of Americans 65 years & older had been fully vaccinated.
For those of us still waiting, yes it feels slow. But this is extraordinary. Remember this.
#ScienceRules
South Korea's
#Covid19
Monday numbers aren't up yet but I just looked at yesterday's (+248 cases & 1 death). It contains a very cool graph that shows the trajectory of their outbreak. It's impressive. They've been aggressive, and it's paying off.
Generating quality journalism costs money.
Yet
@Statnews
is committed to making all our
#Covid19
coverage available for free.
If you like the work we are doing, please consider supporting us. And please keep reading; it's critical to stay informed.
This is really interesting. Eager to see if BCG, the TB vaccine, may offer some short-term protection against
#Covid19
. It's known to broadly boost immunity. Smart story.
5. The J&J vaccine is fridge stable; it doesn't have the same onerous shipping & storage requirements of the mRNA vaccines. It can be used with greater ease in more settings. It's also inexpensive to make. "Frankly, simple is beautiful," says Operation Warp Speed's Matt Hepburn.
Sit with this for a second.
1 in 500 Americans has died from Covid.
1 in 240 among Native Americans.
1 in 390 among Hispanics.
1 in 480 among Blacks.
For people 85 & older, 1 in 35.
So Not The Flu!
The Amy Coney Barrett nomination announcement last Saturday is worth at least a chapter in a
#Covid19
book, if not a whole book itself.
What were these people thinking?
Legendary
#Ebola
responder Pierre Rollin, who retired from
@CDCgov
in 2019, questions why the premier infectious diseases agency has been sidelined in the
#Covid19
response.
It's been 17 days since CDC was allowed to brief.
Worth your time.
To all those folks who said "I'll take a
#CovidVaccine
when Dr. Fauci takes the vaccine" โ well, that's happening tomorrow.
And he's not jumping the queue. Along with everything else he does, Tony Fauci is still an active physician at the NIH Clinical Center, ie he's in Phase 1a.
Everybody breathe:
There are always bumps in the road in vaccine development. It's essential when a possible adverse event is seen to investigate. That's what's being done here.
#Covid19
BREAKING: AstraZeneca's
#Covid19
vaccine trials have been paused as the company investigates a serious adverse event the occurred in the UK. Not clear if the unexplained illness is linked to the vaccine, or what it was.
As the number of deaths to
#Covid19
climb, we may come to view the dead in statistical terms. But god bless the
@washingtonpost
for this piece putting faces on some of the first 1,000 people to die in the U.S. Lives cut short.
1. Amazing statistic: In the 10 weeks since Omicron was discovered, there have been 90M
#Covid
cases reported โย more than in all of 2020, says
@drtedros
at today's
@WHO
press conference.
China reported 1 new domestically acquired cases of
#Covid19
on March 16, & 20 imported cases.
1 domestically acquired case.
There were 13 new deaths.
China's totals are 80,881 confirmed cases, 3226 deaths & 68,869 people have recovered.
1. This is horrifying. An Illinois man has died from
#rabies
, which is a terrible death. He awoke 1 day in mid-Aug to find a bat on his neck. The bat tested positive for rabies but the man REFUSED rabies therapy. What would possess a person to do that? Untreated rabies is fatal.
.
@US_FDA
has authorized Pfizer booster shots for 16- & 17-years olds, without asking its vax expert panel for advice.
@CDCDirector
isn't expected to ask
#ACIP
either. This approach sidesteps what would likely have been lengthy discussion about myocarditis.
I've written about this before โ how
#flu
& other respiratory pathogens almost disappeared in the face of the
#Covid19
pandemic & the steps the world took to slow its spread. But in the case of this graph from
@WHO
, a picture is truly worth 1,000 words.
Fell off a cliff.
Unbelievably lucky. The normal pattern of vaccine development is more like what weโre seeing today. Things you think will work inexplicably donโt. Players you feel confident will succeed (see: Sanofi & Merck) have unexpected setbacks. Making vaccines is hard.
Today's report of
@Merck
dropping their covid vaccine program d/t lack of adequate immune response tells us just how damn lucky we are to have such high efficacy vaccines so quickly
by
@matthewherper
@HelenBranswell
This tweet replaces & corrects one I sent out earlier today.
Danish researchers have studied 1.2 million children from 1991 to 2010 looking to see if there is an association between MMR vaccine & autism. The answer: still no.
This โฆ
@rkhamsi
โฉ piece makes a lot of sense to me. Health workers are being traumatized by a relentless flow of
#COVID19
patients. But outside hospitals, the pandemic is invisible. Some people see only inconvenience, restriction, economic damage.
Anybody else having mask dreams?
You're in a place with a lot of people and you realize no one is wearing a mask. And you aren't either....
I'm personally ready to move on to vaccine dreams.
.
@CDCgov
investigations have linked 4 cases of melioidosis โ a sometimes fatal bacterial infection โ to an aromatherapy room spray sold at Walmart.
2 of the 4 cases in the U.S. have died.
Walmart has issued a recall. Developing story,
1. Turning this into a thread about the extraordinary public rebuke of AstraZeneca today by the DSMB* of its US clinical trial.
(*data & safety monitoring board, independent experts who oversee the trial & monitor the data)
2. So while
@CDCgov
released "suggestions" โ formerly guidance โย about how reduce
#Covid19
spread which includes wearing cloth face coverings in public, it would not comment on the advisability of the president's plans to resume rallies or the GOP's plans for a large convention.
Mind-boggling scoop from my colleague
@NicholasFlorko
. Trump officials actively lobbied against giving states money for
#Covid19
vaccine administration.
Frustrated by the rollout? This is a key reason why it's going so badly.
Unbelievable.
Giving
#Covid
booster shots in wealthy countries is the equivalent of giving extra life jackets to people who already have life jackets, while leaving people who have no life jackets to drown โ
@DrMikeRyan
at today's
@WHO
press conference.
4. Dr. Tony Fauci notes that the J&J vaccine's vaccine efficacy in the US โ 72%, ie higher than the global efficacy rate of 66% โ would have been hugely exciting a couple of months ago, before the mRNA vaccines came in at 95%. This vaccine can contribute to the
#Covid19
fight.
I am thrilled
@LizSpecht
turned her eye-opening tweet thread about what
#Covid19
could do to the health care system into an op-ed for
@statnews
.
If you are *still* wondering what the fuss is about, read this, please.
1. Children &
#Covid19
: Timely study published online by Pediatrics, the AAP's journal.
It reports a single death of a child in 2,143 pediatric cases of Covid-19. The child was a 14 yo boy. It has been previously known that a teen had died; no word if he had other illnesses.
Trump says he's taking the US out of
@WHO
.
No seat at the table = no voice in decisions that have major impact on all citizens of the globe, including Americans. Path to less influence, not more.
I am old enough to remember when Tony Fauci's warning that US
#Covid19
cases could climb by 100,000 a day was a scary prospect. Today 300,000 new cases were recorded.
We will rue the day we allowed this to happen.
The super smart
@mlipsitch
&
@yhgrad
address something I've been really worrying about. We're not at a point with
#Covid19
where we can soon relent. People need to understand this isn't going to be over soon.
The Ohio measles outbreak is up to 50 cases. All are children 17 and younger; half are kids aged 1 to 2.
20 of these kids required hospitalization.
100% of these kids were unvaccinated.
#2019nCoV
: Very important data released by
@WHO
's
@mvankerkhove
just now: Based on data from 17,000 cases, 82% of cases are mild, 15% are severe and 3% are critical.
First time I've seen that estimate of mild cases.
"I'm gonna have to science the sh*t out of this."
I'm rewatching The Martian, which I love.
That Matt Damon line should be the world's motto right now.
#Covid19
Standing in the cold waiting for a
#Covid
test. 45 minutes and was just told I am likely 90 minutes from the test.
#omicron
is coming, Testing Center Folks. This wonโt cut it.
1. It's a real pity the UK drug regulator, MHRA, doesn't hold public advisory committee meetings to assess
#Covid
vaccines, in the way
@US_FDA
does. Would have been fascinating to listen to a detailed analysis of the AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine's emergency use application.
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