George Hadjia @GHadjia Twitter profile

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George Hadjia

2 months

A year ago I left my job at a hedge fund in NY to start my own fund, Bristlemoon Capital. Some thoughts below on the journey of launching a fund (both the good and bad):

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

2 years

This is pretty sick. $META

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

2 years

SoulCycle woke up today and chose violence. $PTON

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

2 years

$FB is now the same price as it was in 2017, a time when revenues and earnings were 1/4 of the size they were today.

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

2 years

So $FB managed to grow Q1 rev by 7% YoY off the back of a +48% comp during a period where $AAPL did all it could to screw them with ATT, Reels transition, supply chain/macro hitting SMBs and ad $ more broadly, & Russia/Ukraine headwind. 2yr rev CAGR held steady QoQ @ 25% in Q1...

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

1 month

Ken Griffin: “In the U.S, we trade almost 25% of all the equity that trades everyday…$400 billion dollars of daily turnover across all asset classes here at Citadel Securities”. From the In Good Company podcast.

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

7 months

$MTCH acquiring Hinge for c.$25m in '18 is new info. Terms were undisclosed at the time of acquisition but we know that Hinge did $5.2m total rev in '18 against MTCH FY18 rev of ~$1.7bn. Hinge now on track to do $400m FY23 rev and is a multi-billion $ asset. Pretty good.

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

5 months

@StockJabber @BillAckman That is a class act. I hope he reads your tweet and can see the impact his response to you had.

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

3 years

"$U is so expensive. It trades on 29x revenues". No, not really. $U charges a US$1.8k/yr flat fee and 85% of users actually use a free version of the s/w, which is almost at feature parity with the paid version. There is significant underpricing. 1/ THREAD

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

2 years

$MSFT partnering with $META is HUGE. There is a lot we can glean from this. Some thoughts below...

George Hadjia

@GHadjia

2 years

Satya making an appearance in the Meta Connect event was not on my bingo card.

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

3 months

Just remember that Facebook in 2009 had similar revenues ($777m) to $RDDT today yet had 34% operating margins vs -17% for Reddit. The lack of cost discipline at $RDDT is truly astonishing. For every dollar of revenue they’re paying 55c for R&D and I can’t figure out what for

Trevor Scott

@TidefallCapital

3 months

You maniacs are paying $8bn for this? $RDDT

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

2 years

$UNH has never missed Street estimates for a quarter in the data I have going back to 4Q11. Rather impressive.

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

5 months

"If you took away all of David Tepper’s money, I think he’d still have that wonderful grin on his face as he started trying to make it back — he just loves hitting the ball." Only just came across this via a friend. One of the more insightful articles about starting a fund

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

3 months

Bristlemoon just published a deep dive (>16k words) on Dutch Bros $BROS, a U.S. drive-thru coffee chain that is like a cross between $SBUX and Dairy Queen. BROS has 831 shops and is targeting 4,000 shops over the next 10-15 years (an 11-17% CAGR). We explore issues such as...

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

7 months

Bristlemoon just published a report on $CPRT, one of the best businesses we've ever encountered (link below). The problem is that the mkt is seemingly missing the pricing-led, high-incremental mgn growth of the last few years being replaced by relatively lower mgn vol growth...

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

2 months

Unsurprisingly, launching a fund is very hard. It requires execution on multiple fronts: building/managing a portfolio, legal/operations buildout, capital raising and building a brand, and then eventually managing a team as the AUM scales. These roles require v diff skillsets.

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

2 years

@buccocapital Actually respect this a ton to get on national TV and candidly admit you got it wrong and made a mistake. There's a distinct paucity of these sort of mea culpas in public markets investing so credit to Jim where credit is due.

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

2 months

A good analyst does not automatically convert to a good PM, and being a good PM does not mean you will be a good leader of a business. Managing people is v different from managing a portfolio of stocks. Introspection and recognizing your strengths and weakness is key.

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

9 months

I'm very excited to announce the launch of the Bristlemoon Capital investment newsletter (link in tweet below). The first article is a deep dive on $MTCH. We are opening our insights to the investment community and we encourage criticism, particularly well-reasoned pushback.

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

1 month

Bristlemoon just published a deep dive (c.16k words) on $PINS. We detail the many changes to the platform that we believe will cause revenues and earnings to accelerate well-beyond sell-side numbers and management's 3-5 year targets:

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

2 months

These are just some random thoughts on my journey with Bristlemoon Capital which is scheduled to launch 1 July. So far the journey has been a lot of fun and an incredible learning experience.

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

8 months

Bernstein spreading the word on $MTCH.

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

3 months

A striking reminder that not all fortunes are created with equal levels of morality. Soros's behavior is as abhorrent as his total lack of any remorse. Another example of a faulty moral compass is the story told by @BillAckman on his recent appearance on the Lex Fridman podcast…

 Q-Cap 

@qcapital2020

3 months

This 60 minutes interview in 1998 of Georges Soros is absolutely insane. This man has zero morals, zero remorse. He's a sociopath, he's deceitful and duplicitous. We're mostly all capitalist on this hell site but this man is the worst of the worst. The part about how he got…

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

2 years

Love seeing Jeff Lawson from $TWLO rock up to the MS TMT conf. holding his bicycle helmet vs other CEOs rolling in with fanfare and a full blown entourage.

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

2 years

@benthompson 's recent Shopify pieces got me thinking: $FB should acquire $SHOP. I know, I know - FB can't do deals anymore. But think about it for a second and it really makes sense...

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

7 months

$MTCH looked okay on the surface; below the surface it was pretty bad. The Tinder net payers stabilization/inflection keeps getting pushed out and marked a significant degradation vs. prior comments (see below). Some thoughts...

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

2 months

This is perhaps the most perverse part of this business. Those that can spin a story can often raise real money, even in the absence of any investing acumen. Conversely, there are some phenomenal investors who struggle to raise AUM bc they are weak at selling themselves.

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

6 months

Bristlemoon published a report on $RH, a business that we like but one we believe has been significantly overearning in recent years. The normalization of the COVID demand bump is coinciding with a period where RH is refreshing 80% of its product assortment, the largest

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

2 months

Starting a fund = starting a biz which = being an entrepreneur. This means being responsible for a multitude of decisions (big and small; portfolio & business-related) vs having someone above you make those decisions when you're an employee at a fund.

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

1 month

"Look at Buffett; he's one of the best writers ever in the business world. It's not a coincidence that he's also one of the best investors of all time. If you can't write clearly, it is my opinion that you don't think very clearly. And if you don't think clearly, you're in

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

2 months

Most likely you will be constantly thinking about the fund and all the things you need to do, probably in an obsessive way. This drive to get the biz going has seen me working 7 days/week, often late into the evening + no holidays. The upside is it doesn't feel like work.

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

2 months

This requires both decisiveness and being strategic to drive forward outcomes. You need to be highly self-motivated because the onus falls entirely on you to will the fund into existence. This creates a mental burden that is very different when working as an employee.

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

2 months

The mental burden of starting a fund and running a business should not be underestimated. There is no shutting off. Going on a 2 week Euro holiday and shutting off aren't really possible when so many aspects of the biz (and portf.) require your daily attention.

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

1 month

Bristlemoon has removed the paywall for our report on $MTCH for those interested (see below).

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

2 months

The nexus between your effort and the financial value that accrues to you is a strong motivator, but so is the sense of purpose/pride from building something of your own. It is hard to describe the mindset shift that occurs when you are building your own house vs someone else's.

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

1 year

This is what a wartime CEO looks like. $META

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

2 months

This requires not just buy-in from yourself, but buy-in from your partner/family. You will have less time for them and the stresses of launching a fund can affect the quality of that time you spend together (it can be hard to be present when your mental bandwidth is limited).

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

2 months

The biggest gating factor to launching a fund is capital. Raising capital requires building trust, often with people you've only recently met. This is a VERY different skillset from stock picking and building that trust falls squarely on the CIO.

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

2 years

Guide actually implies 2yr CAGR remains flat sequentially @ midpoint which is not bad given deteriorating macro backdrop and worries around consumer rolling over w. higher rates. This is an exceptional biz trading at a multiple that will likely prove laughable over time.

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

2 months

This requires understanding your limits and carefully managing yourself within those limits to avoid burnout. I am vigilant about exercising regularly and getting enough sleep, but this can be disturbed more easily than before when working as an employee.

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

4 months

Had dinner at the parents' place last night. Afterwards dad sat me down and put on an $NVDA Jensen keynote. "How did you miss this one?", he whispers. A sign of the times.

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

2 years

"Reels already makes up more than 20% of the time that people spend on Instagram." - Zuck Pretty impressive when you consider that Reels was introduced in August 2020.

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

2 months

Can you communicate articulately? Can you convey your point of differentiation and strategy in a clear manner that resonates with investors (who will range from sophisticated to unsophisticated)? Do you present as trustworthy? Do investors like you?

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

2 years

@NickCowles11 You’re still getting an asset that can compound. Think of if you were to buy the whole biz and what the payback period on your initial capital would be if you bought at a low-DD multiple and the biz continues to grow. Fed actions matter less with that lens.

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

3 months

$RH is polarizing: bulls are looking at the 2H24 guided accel as the product refresh gets traction + potential macro improvement (rate cuts, EHS +ve); bears will point out weakness/disruption over next few qtrs, coming off an inflated base due to overearning on product mgns....

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

2 years

I'm convinced that thesis drift in tech is a greater risk than in any other sector due to the rapid pace of change. It's a double edged sword that's rightly called "thesis creep" to the downside and alternatively labeled multiple s-curve growth/optionality to the upside.

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

10 months

“The labour intensity of multi-manager hedge funds means that they account for a quarter of the sector’s total headcount despite representing 8 per cent of its assets”. Interesting read on the multi-managers.

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

9 months

That's a pretty decent work perk

Lydia Moynihan

@LJMoynihan

9 months

NEW: @BillAckman tells me why he’s still bullish on Manhattan, his back to the office solution and the latest on his presidential picks @nypost

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

1 year

This RH business breakdown by @Speedwell_LLC was fantastic; it's clear that Drew approaches business analysis with an operator's lens and the pod was brimming with gems. Below are some really insightful points Drew made about discounting...

Drew Cohen - Restoration Hardware: Climbing the Luxury Mountain

Drew Cohen is the co-founder of Speedwell Research. We cover how CEO Gary Friedman took over a struggling business and built it into a luxury brand, RH's unique acquisition funnel and in-store...

www.joincolossus.com

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

2 years

Popular narrative: "TikTok is killing FB/IG" $FB CFO: "if you look back, engagement for both Facebook and Instagram, remain above the levels they were at pre-pandemic and that's true both globally and in the U.S."

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

2 months

There have been opportunities to appear on podcasts. You do not get the same inbounds working as an analyst at a fund. Someone above you is fielding those opps and more likely to reap the value for them.

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

5 months

Bristlemoon Capital just hit 1,000 subscribers. Hugely thankful for all the support and excited for a big year ahead writing content that is hopefully interesting and valuable. We've written about $MTCH, $CPRT, $RH, $META, $EYE and the next writeup will be on $TTD. Stay tuned.

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

1 year

Great to hang with the Acquired guys @djrosent @gilbert

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

8 months

I’m stoked to have joined @ReustleMatt on Business Breakdowns to discuss $MTCH - a true battleground stock.

Matt Reustle

@ReustleMatt

8 months

Enjoyed breaking down the heavily contested MTCH with @GHadjia on @bizbreakdowns We cover industry dynamics, business model dynamics, and what broke the stock. Make sure to check out George's research as well.

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

2 years

Regardless of your thoughts on $META, I'm leaning towards the view that those who shorted the stock into the print got lucky. Opex/capex guide was what caused the leg down and I don't think there was any way to have formed this view going into print. All other KPIs fared well...

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

4 months

Finally getting around to the @eric_seufert interview on @stratechery . Great stuff as always, and a clear explanation of the mechanics and significance of the $META and $AMZN partnership.

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

2 months

I think about building a fund as a platform that attracts opportunities. Since setting up Bristlemoon I've had other investors reach out to discuss stocks and send their research to me. We've had private deals come our way. People wanting to rent our AFS license.

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

8 months

Grindr stats are wild. "Our users produce about 300 million individual chat messages a day, which is about 600 per daily active user. That's about 12x more than on WhatsApp." - CEO George Arison (GS conference).

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

11 months

That ad impressions growth with average price per ad also trending up is very bullish. $META

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

3 months

Stoked to have appeared on @StockJabber 's Sunday Idea's Brunch to discuss Bristlemoon Capital, $MTCH, $EYE, and why I'm launching a global long/short fund from Sydney, Australia.

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

6 months

$MTCH now targeting QoQ Tinder payer growth in mid-24' and YoY growth by YE-24' [Wells Fargo TMT conference]. Really need to bank on the product refresh helping the top-of-funnel trends which according to CFO are "slowly bouncing back". Co now talking about a heavy mktg push...

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

7 months

Super glad that people are getting value out of the Bristlemoon newsletter and I'm very appreciative of the feedback. The next writeup will be on $RH. Subscribe and stay tuned!

Ensemble Capital

@IntrinsicInv

7 months

This is an *extremely* good write up of $CPRT. While the business is universally recognized as excellent and moaty, @GHadjia wrestles with the COVID fueled surge in used car ASPs and illustrates how it has led to Copart over earning. George is a talent and an instant new follow.

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

2 months

Launching a fund is dependent on third-parties which can introduce delays. Things will take longer than you expect. We got an Australian Financial Services Licence. It took around 6 months and we couldn't start the legal docs until that was completed.

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

2 years

META has a credibility and trust problem with the public. MSFT is highly trusted and embedded in the enterprise in a way that is unrivaled. META is leveraging MSFT's stellar reputation to help accel. hardware adoption and the ecosystem buildout. Kind of genius tbh.

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

7 months

Have started going through $RH for the next writeup. There are some gems in the call transcripts.

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

2 months

Service provider onboarding and other operational tasks can also take longer than envisioned. So even if you are executing very well, other people you need to depend on to get the fund up and running can slow down the process.

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

1 year

@buccocapital Niche opportunity for a dating app that matches people that tweet crap like this.

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

1 year

Playing at Tootsie’s on Memorial Day Weekend was cool. If this finance thing doesn’t work out you’ll know where to find me

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

2 years

MSFT's move to integrate Office 365 and Teams into Horizon Workrooms takes a page out of its PC-era playbook of being hardware agnostic. MSFT has its own HoloLens product but backing the current VR hardware leader (META) is strategic re maintaining productivity sw dominance.

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

5 months

This is awesome. I think back to when I was in uni and reached out to 20 Aussie funds asking if I could get some work experience. Two replied. One of them became a great mentor who I still stay in touch with 14 years later. I reflect on that and try to pay forward that kindness.

Edwin Dorsey

@StockJabber

5 months

Ten years ago, I was a high school sophomore interested in the stock market so I wrote letters to the twenty or so best investors asking for advice The only one to reply was @BillAckman , who sent this note and list of books to read Looking back, it made a major impact on my

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

3 months

$MTCH not looking as bad after $BMBL result. They raised similar issues around the lack of innovation for the Bumble App leading to less traction with Gen Z users, as well as a weak macro backdrop having an impact, particularly amongst younger users. The big negative for BMBL was…

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

3 years

@packyM @lillianmli This was an excellent piece by @packyM and insightful/thought-provoking follow-up points, respectfully delivered by @lillianmli . It's nice when TWTR doesn't devolve into a pissing match. Thank you both for sharing!

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

1 year

Live feed from the FTC after news of Big Tech cos competing with each other

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

1 year

@EugeneNg_VCap I’ve always thought about this quote from him. Seems so simple but it hints at why he’s so good: getting in the shoes of a consumer to get insights that go to the heart of the advantage/economics of the business. It’s a very practical observation.

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

2 years

Analyst: "can you give us a better sense of how you move away from some of those tougher comps..." Ruth: "...time will get us through with the lapping. So that's obvious math, but you asked the question". 😂

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

8 months

These analyst vs market maker comments from Michael Platt are great and are just another example of how the very best traders respect the market in a way that sometimes contradicts value investing dogma.

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

2 months

The fact that at the start of the year the market expected the first Fed rate cut to be March 2024, and it’s now expected for November 2024 probably tells you all you need to know about predicting Fed actions.

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

2 years

Where is $AAPL while all this is happening? The longer they wait the more entrenched META will become given the growing number of integrations and developers contributing to its ecosystem. There are clear first mover advantages here and I suspect AAPL's tardiness is bc XR is HARD

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

4 months

Bristlemoon just published a deep dive on The Trade Desk. $TTD is a solid business exposed to two high growth digital ad channels (CTV + retail media) but we question the extent to which TTD will benefit, explore the likely take rate pressure, and other risks such as...

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

1 month

“We have about 100,000 applicants from colleges and universities around the world” - Ken Griffin

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

1 month

Immensely grateful for the 2k subs. I've met some incredible people via the newsletter who have been encouraging and helpful with sharing their own ideas and insights. As a recap we've written about $PINS, $MTCH, $RH, $CPRT, $BROS, $TTD, $EYE and $META. Feel free to subscribe!

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

3 years

Will $U be affected by the IDFA-deprecation? LONG THREAD [Part 1] $U’s revenues will be affected both directly and indirectly but they could be a beneficiary. First we must understand $U’s ads biz. 1/ 👇👇👇

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

9 months

"These multi-strats and this concept of vol targeting..,the majority of the capital that is being deployed by these large firms are based...from a risk management perspective on the level of volatility that they create. And so as a result, the lower the volatility in the world,

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

2 years

$SPOT bears sorely miss the fact that the biz is more than just a margin-capped music streaming co; it's a large, highly engaged user base that provides a wedge to help rapidly scale up new revenue streams (which aren't beholden to the same GM ceiling/headaches with labels).

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

3 months

Appeared on the ABC last night to give some brief thoughts on the $RDDT IPO. Lots of hype but the numbers make it very hard for us to get excited.

Reddit to list on NYSE

Trusted and independent source of local, national and world news. In-depth analysis, business, sport, weather and more.

www.abc.net.au

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

11 months

$SPOT is a great product but while there's LT potential, the ability for it to convert its product leadership into solid economics for equityholders remains clouded. The Q2 result showed blowout MAU net adds but a continued inability to parlay this into profitable growth.

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

1 year

Redburn noted $ABNB is spending again on Google SEM for first time since 2019; red flag given prior mgt commentary talking up direct traffic and limited impact of prior performance spend, and to the extent it's a sign of desperation/signal of a deteriorating demand environment.

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

1 year

The interns are running amok

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

4 months

$U: "I mean on the Grow side, we're just seeing a more intense competitive environment, right? And you've all seen some of our competitors report numbers. Some of them have been better than ours. So it's just been a more intense and some of the innovation they've brought to the…

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

3 years

$U IDFA Impact [Part 2] LONG THREAD See here for [Part 1] 1/

George Hadjia

@GHadjia

3 years

$GOOGL/$FB will lose their edge, and make $U a relatively more attractive ad channel. But there’s more. $U’s ad sophistication is lacking vv $GOOGL/$FB but that could change in the future in a big way. $U has a lucrative data asset that few understand. 21/ TBC in [PART 2]

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

2 years

Satya making an appearance in the Meta Connect event was not on my bingo card.

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

3 months

Interesting when matched with $AI CEO comments around energy consumption becoming a constraint for data center expansion with difficulties in securing power from utility cos to build data centers in places like CA. h/t @TheTranscript_

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

1 month

Match Group (MTCH) – To Swipe, or Not to Swipe?

A deep dive on the dating app holding company

www.bristlemoonresearch.com

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

3 years

This is sensible as $U is trying to draw in developers, which learn how to build using their platform tool and are incredibly sticky. They might be undermonetising now, but there are benefits to attracting developers early... 2/

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

3 years

@S_curvecap Too few questions follow the chart below. Sell-side qus in earnings Q&A are key offenders.

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

2 years

The struggle in this market is figuring out if a stock is actually cheap enough to have baked in worsening near term biz fundamentals, or if the decel of fundamentals is worse than expected and causes the price to leg down. Both can be true and it comes down to time horizons...

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

10 months

It was all there in Q1 to piece together the $FND guidance downgrade. While total FND sales were up 9.1% YoY in Q1, the +19% YoY Pro sales growth masked the fact that non-Pro sales – which represent 58% of FND’s sales mix – declined by 6.2% YoY....

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

6 months

21hrs in and the GTA VI trailer has c.85m YT views. For reference, the original GTA V trailer 12 yrs ago has 99m lifetime views... There's arguably no entertainment property in the world that has a better pre-release hype cycle than what Rockstar does with GTA franchise. $TTWO

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

11 months

That's a very nice chart re Tinder rev/day accel $MTCH. Tinder price increases seem to be sticking (manageable payer drop off @ -4% & notably they're remaining in the ecosystem). This is big given that Tinder = 56% of revs and even > % of earnings. Narrative inflection underway.

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George Hadjia

@GHadjia

9 months

Ed Thorp’s track record is pretty insane.

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