Avocate aux barreaux de Paris & New York | International dispute resolution lawyer |
@UCLA_Law
alum 🐻💛💙 | Tweets 🇫🇷 foreign policy & 🇪🇺EU | Views my own
1/ Late to this, but glad to see the Macron documentary broadcast late June finally gets the attention it rightfully deserves. This documentary is pure gold. A thread. 🧵
Some pretty incredible footage of Macron talking to Zelensky on the morning of the invasion, when the scale of the full-scale Russian assault on Ukraine was becoming clear.
Emmanuel Macron on Crimea:
“Do you think that we, French, who had to experience the seizure of Alsace-Lorraine would have liked, mid-war, that a foreign leader tells us ‘you must do this or that’?”
Politico’s anti-France bias in a nutshell.
🇩🇪 Germany delaying Regulation on CO2 emissions of new cars:
“Approval of EU's 2035 combustion engine ban postponed”
🇫🇷 France delaying Renewable Energy Directive:
“CRAZY France takes renewables legislation HOSTAGE”
Emmanuel Macron on Fiona Scott Morton’s appointment:
“As you know, I am committed to Europe’s strategic autonomy. I am looking at the facts and, at the same time, I am for recruiting the most competent people (…).”
“France rescues British nationals from Sudan” in The Telegraph. 2 weeks ago, they published a piece headlined “Macron’s France has become geopolitical irrelevance”.
🧵 Macron’s *actual* interview is in French outlet
@LesEchos
No paywall:
In Politico however… I don’t know what train wreck of an article that is.
You have actual quotes mixed up with Politico’s analysis for this reason 🔽
Thread on those “cuts” 1/
"The great risk” Europe faces is getting "caught up in crises that are not ours," says Emmanuel Macron.
In an exclusive interview aboard his plane, the French president explained why he wants Europe to reduce its dependency on the US 👇
9/ THIS. IS. KEY.
Do not underestimate the level of anti-🇺🇸 sentiment in 🇫🇷. I absolutely believe there would NOT have been wide support at home 🇫🇷 for the sanctions if Macron hadn't made his best efforts at a diplomatic solution.
13/ Feb 24 - Truly the most remarkable scene (to me), Macron worrying about Zelensky’s safety
Macron: Are you in security yourself?
Zelensky: I think so.
Macron: Are you sure or you think so?
Zelensky: I think so. I’m sure. I think nobody is in safety in Kyiv.
“France just watched”?
90,000 French soldiers died in 6 weeks during the 1940 Battle of France (vs 60,000 on German side).
In total, more than 200,000 French soldiers and 500,000 French civilians died during WW2. This includes 60,000 French civilians deaths under ALLIED bombs.
@KyivIndependent
Which is why France couldn't defeat Germany in World War 1 without the US. Then in 1939, France just watched as Poland was carved up between Germany and Russia. No surprise when France occupied in 30 days in 1940 by the Nazis.
Maybe we shouldn't be asking France?
12/ Feb 23 - Taking the temperature & sending weapons
Macron to Zelensky: “Our army will provide the material you asked for. Will be sent tomorrow by plane to Kyiv. But I’m ready, in conjunction with the other Europeans, to do more. To do so, you have to give me a precise list.”
Let me be crystal clear about this. There is no data to support the narrative pushed by Navalny’s team that “many people in France have positive views of Putin”.
All French opinion polls since March 2022 point exactly to the contrary. A thread 🧵
@jburnmurdoch
Only that the poll you are quoting is asking a completely different question...
We didn't ask about "Putin doing the right thing in the world affairs" (which is quite loaded). Very many people do think positive of Putin, unfortunately, because "he is defending his country" etc
Emmanuel Macron on Crimea:
“Do you think that we French who had to experience the seizure of Alsace-Lorraine would have liked, mid-war, that a foreign leader tells us ‘you must do this or that’?”
“Germany is warming to a French plan that would expand the powers of the European Investment Bank to allow it to finance defense projects such as the buying of weapons and military supplies.”
Good.
2/ Initially a documentary about the French Presidency of the European Council from Jan to Jun 2022, it morphed into something else as the war unfolded. We got raw footages of Macron’s reactions in the weeks before and after the war.
Emmanuel Macron: “Russia has already lost geopolitically” (…) “It is de facto becoming a vassal of China and lost access to the Baltics (…) because it prompted Sweden & Finland to join NATO. This was unimaginable 2 years ago. Therefore, it is already a geopolitical defeat.”
8/ Macron replies: "it's valuable because it shows that we are making our best efforts" It protects us if people are saying you’ve been dragged by the allies. We will say ’no, we didn’t. The guy is just lying.’”
28/ Macron: “Yes, I am worried. I am worried about the women and men in Ukraine (…) how our Europe will be able to hold in the long run and take the right decisions.”
/END
7/ In reality.
Bonne: "the only risk, of course, is to be denied in fact very quickly, since the Americans are still passing along all sorts of information that tells us that the Russians are basically not changing their posture."
11/ Feb 22 - Macron justifies his stance to Boris Johnson.
Macron: “I think we were right to negotiate (…) Let’s be clear altogether: none of us was ready and is still ready to go to Ukraine and send its troops to Ukraine. Let’s be honest with ourselves & with the Ukrainians.”
Macron Is Making the EU Look Increasingly French via
@business
“From defense to industrial policy, officials familiar with the bloc’s inner workings say that the French president is calling the shots like rarely before.” 1/3
5/ Feb 7 - Impressions after THAT 5-hour Moscow meeting.
"When I say the situation is hotter than it was in 2008 or 2014, I weigh my words"
(Again, not super optimistic)
10/ Emmanuel Bonne doubling down on Putin’s lies on the same day: “Lie is part of Putin’s play. It is up to us to be more clever. So every time, we push further. Today, we are not going to make them say ‘summit’, but tomorrow we will. Perhaps.”
Faut dire qu’à force de décrire un pays au bord de la guerre civile au gré de tribunes plus inutiles les unes que les autres, ca refroidit effectivement les investisseurs étrangers.
15/ Call on Feb 28: right after Putin had put his nuclear deterrent capabilities on high alert.
(Look at the sheer panic on the most watched cable news network in France)
14/ The Macron-Putin phone diplomacy
The documentary puts well into context the now infamous phone call diplomacy. Each time, it was an opportunity for Macron to address *specific issues*.
At 2130 on Aug 12th,
@EmmanuelMacron
went on secure phone at office of his Riviera summer residence to call
@rafaelmgrossi
, who was on holiday on a Greek island. It was the opening move for what ended up with last week's IAEA mission to Zaporizhzhia. -1-
Zelenskyy on 🇪🇺
#StrategicAutonomy
: “Europe must be ready to be autonomous. This is not just about the 🇺🇸 [...] Europe is a large independent market of 600 M people, a continent capable of living autonomously and that should be capable of defending itself autonomously.”
24/ June 16 - Macron on his humiliation remarks
Macron: I was talking about the outcome.
Q: But why now?
Macron: (…) There is a risk of a potential confusions about the positions. We are here to help Ukraine to win. We are not here to fight nor annihilate Russia.
21/ Back to the documentary
March 11 - Divergence btw France & Germany on oil & gas at Versailles Summit
Bonne: “Our anticipation is that eventually, if Putin continues, we will have to accept to pay more [for oil and gas]. We know sanctions hurt him and we know hurt us.”
22/ March 11 - The PEAK Macron Scene
All you need to know to understand why Macron is such a divisive figure in France here:
Loses his temper. Abruptly orders the staff to follow the protocol. Casually makes a joke about 25/26 heads of government surrounded by his boys club.
This footage about a phone call between Macron & Putin is from the 2022 documentary “A President, Europe and War”. An English-subtitled version was released in February 2023.
Pinned thread about this: 1/
I just gained a lot more respect for France's President Macron.
This is the actual telephone call between Macron and Putin 4 days before the Invasion of Ukraine.
It's a very tense conversation and shows Putin's extreme delusions about what was happening in Ukraine.
25/ Macron: “What matters to me is to try to ensure the conflict does not expand, that Ukraine manages to stop it and regain control and that Europeans remain united. That has been my position from the very beginning.”
26/ Macron: “I don’t want to have an East/West divide and leave some countries on the side of the road. That’s the key. That’s how we will get European unity. We can do it. We demonstrated we can during Covid.”
27/ June 16 - Lucid about EU unity
Macron: There is still much work to do. We are not done. There is still much work to do.
Q: I sense you are worried.
Le Président
@EmmanuelMacron
s’est entretenu cet après-midi avec le Président Vladimir Poutine. Il a partagé sa préoccupation sur les risques pour la sûreté, la sécurité et les garanties nucléaires qui résultent de l’invasion militaire russe en Ukraine.
23/ Time gap:
The French elections are absolutely not covered in this documentary. One important side of the story is missing. Maybe too sensitive for Macron’s team.
So there’s nothing between March 11 and June 16.
"French president Emmanuel Macron has for the first time called for Ukraine to be granted a Nato membership “path” at a critical summit over the future of the alliance and how best to defend Europe against Russian aggression."
Biden in Kyiv discusses possible future peace talks
*Twitter on silence mode*
Macron and Scholz reportedly discuss possible future peace talks (as part of a 🇬🇧🇫🇷🇩🇪 defense pact proposal by the way)
Twitter: “France & Germany backstabbing the entire West” 🤡
Hill & Kissinger are US citizens.
More than the “accent”, are we going to downplay the fact that Scott Morton, who has lobbied for Apple, Amazon & Microsoft,
working at DG COMP on antitrust probes against Apple, Amazon & Microsoft might be a problem?
“But… the French!” 🤡
Fiona Hill, Henry Kissinger, and many other people w/ non American accents have served in US govt. French officials horror at the thought of a leading American economist working at the EU Commission is a DEFCON 1 alarm. 🙃
#BrusselsPlaybook
Mongolia opens way for uranium mining with $1.7bn French deal via
@NikkeiAsia
“France & Mongolia have signed a 1.6 bn euro ($1.7 bn) deal that paves the way for the mining of uranium in the landlocked country, the chairman of Orano told Nikkei Asia”
“France provided Ukraine with a total of €1.7 billion in military aid in 2022 and of €2.1 billion in 2023. In 2024, France will provide up to 3 billion euros in additional support.” Source: Office of the Ukrainian President
And then there’s Kiel. 🔽
Grandstanding claim to speak on behalf of NATO aside, this is another faux pas in 🇫🇷🇩🇪 relations: not the first time that Scholz’s government is making official statements such as this one just for the sake of contradicting Emmanuel Macron.
Very undiplomatic and problematic.
We agreed that everyone must do more for Ukraine in Paris yesterday. Ukraine needs weapons, ammunition and air defence. We are working on it. It is clear: there will be no ground troops from European countries or NATO. That applies.
On va le répéter, ça va finir par rentrer…
2008: Candidature de 🇺🇦 à l’OTAN, véto 🇫🇷&🇩🇪
2014: 🇷🇺 envahi l’Ukraine alors qu’elle négociait un accord d’association avec l’🇪🇺
Enjeu: la souveraineté de l’Ukraine de choisir ses relations avec l’UE.
L’OTAN n’est qu’un prétexte.
One of the many fallacies that Pres. Macron peddles: He talks about the U.S. and China as if Europe had to deal with them on the same footing. I am afraid that is expressing his real thinking. It is what the Chinese would like to become the European position. Not happening.
🙄 Puisque l’idée est manifestement de jouer les leader de soirée étudiante, on a quelques suggestions pour Emmanuel Macron : un bon pastis à chaque fois qu’Elisabeth Borne avale une couleuvre ou un shot de vodka à chaque recours au 49-3 ?
Billet :
Every couple of months, we get those “took him a while” moments but has Emmanuel Macron’s overall position on Ukraine actually changed?
Just rewatched an interview he gave in March 2022 and his overall position hasn’t budged an inch.
This is quite a coup for 🇫🇷. Zelensky is now on his way to the G7 in Japan abroad a 🇫🇷 government plane. The symbolism is powerful. It took him a while, but with this gesture Macron is making it loud and clear that 🇫🇷 is fully behind 🇺🇦
Less than 24 hours after President Emmanuel Macron’s comments, Fiona Scott Morton has withdrawn from the Chief Economist position.
The French* >>> EU Bubble
Emmanuel Macron on Fiona Scott Morton’s appointment:
“As you know, I am committed to Europe’s strategic autonomy. I am looking at the facts and, at the same time, I am for recruiting the most competent people (…).”
If
@BWallaceMP
had wanted Macron’s support for his candidacy as NATO SecGen, maybe he should have been more diplomatic with his insults.
You can’t “rebuke” a French President on France’s nuclear doctrine, throw out “whiff of Munich” accusations and then expect a blessing.
First, France was unenthusiastic about NATO proposal to open a liaison office in Japan and French president Macron said the move would be a “big mistake”. Now, UK media reports that Macron is trying to block Ben Wallace from becoming next Nato secretary-general because UK left…
PM Johnson (& others) publicly criticized French diplomacy for months.
Now we learn that “meetings have been arranged to discuss security matters both for the UK and internationally, with talks thought to cover grain shortages and nuclear safety.”
Britain held secret talks with Russia for a year and a half - Sky News
British officials held non-public diplomatic talks with key Kremlin officials for 18 months in various locations, including Vienna and New York.
The information was confirmed to the publication by a British…
🗣️ “Second, I'm committed to reciprocity. And I would be quite open to such a configuration if I saw the Americans hiring a European researcher to be at the heart of the decisions in the White House, or the Chinese doing the same.”
“France has 150 shades of discontent” (Alain Duhamel)
After monthslong pension reform protests, here comes the “cité” edition.
This is *not* 2005. This is something else, and it is way worse. An “us vs them” situation after far-right talking points have become mainstream. 🧵
🗣️ Emmanuel Macron about Taiwan:
“Why should we go at the pace chosen by others? At some point, we must ask ourselves the question of our interests. (…) We Europeans must wake up. Our priority is not to adapt to the agenda of others in all regions of the world.” 2/
Emmanuel Macron: “We do not want to get involved in crises that are not ours…
… HOWEVER, here’s my frigate in the Taiwan Strait during those Chinese military drills last weekend”
🗣️ “First, isn’t there any major European researcher with the academic credentials for this job? If that's our assessment, it's extremely worrying. We need to invest massively in academic research in economics.”
La dernière sortie de Daniel Foubert 🔽
C’est à cause des experts et d’une journaliste (Moutet) qui l’ont retweeté pendant des mois qu’on se retrouve avec un compte à plus de 15.000 abonnés qui débite connerie sur connerie.
Faites attention avec vos RT!
@perebenemari
à
@GerardAraud
: "Nous entendons que la guerre c'est difficile et ça coûte cher. Mais l'occupation, c'est beaucoup plus de souffrance."
La suite :
➡️
🎧 en podcast
There's beauty in seeing pieces in the NYTimes that are sympathetic to the French pension reform protests considering they moved their editing operations from Paris to London in 2015 due to *checks notes* France's “inflexible employment laws”.
Demonstrators across France have been banging pots and pans together to protest President Emmanuel Macron's unpopular pension overhaul that raised the legal age of retirement to 64 from 62.
🇫🇷🏛️ “Conversations in restaurants often involve a lengthy analysis of la crise nationale over main courses, before complaining over dessert that travel spots are sold out.”
Perfectly sums up the situation for a vast majority of the population.
France's economy is doing well. The jobless rate is at its lowest in 15 years, companies are investing, GDP is growing, wages are rising 4-5%. Current inflation is at 5.9%, below EU average. Yet, social unrest festers & consumer confidence sinks.
🗣️ “Last but not least, and I have a lot of respect for this American researcher. (…) But it happens she was hired by a lot of companies, thus had to speak on a lot of issues, and will have to stand back on many of those issues, which makes her hiring all the more irrelevant.”
Unsurprising to see “EU bubble” folks & some anglo commentators defend gamekeeper (US DOJ) turned poacher (Apple, Amazon & Microsoft) turned gamekeeper again (DG COMP), and having a meltdown over France’s position on Fiona Scott Morton. 1/
🗣️ “I see that [their] law prevents them from doing so. And that we, on the other hand, are normally prevented from doing so. It's an exceptional procedure. I don't think this is the best area to do this.”
🇫🇷🏛️ There are 2 topics that French politicians can never discuss calmly:
1- Pensions
2- Immigration
Emmanuel Macron just decided that 2023 was the right year to have a national conversation about 1&2. And he just blew away his legacy tonight because of 2. 🧵
I am screaming.
April reactions were completely disproportionate. Period.
Emmanuel Macron said nothing new in this Fareed Zakaria itw that hasn’t been said in Les Échos itw and April 12 press conference in Amsterdam.
Or are we just going to pretend like they didn’t happen?
Wow. Poland&Hungary have been EU members for 20 years now. That their elites don’t understand the fundamentals of EU trade policy & think they can get away with unilateral actions is pretty outstanding.
Can you imagine the knee-jerk reactions if Macron would have done the same?
46-year-old Emmanuel Macron appointed Gabriel Attal, 34, as his prime minister.*
Quite the contrast with the U.S. where the top contenders for the highest office in 2024 are 81 (Biden) and 77 (Trump).
🗣️ “I'm waiting to hear from the commission. If we don't have researchers of this caliber to work for the commission, it means we have a very big problem with all European academic systems.”
Anyone who’s actually opened a history book knows WW2 battles were brutal in France…
As for WW1, America’s role is way overblown.
- Blue: French troops (5 million casualties)
- Red: German troops (5 million casualties)
- Purple: US troops (280,000 casualties)
Who was the majority partner from 14-18 on the allied side of the Western Front? Below maps from the excellent visually makes it easy to see who..
French= Blue
Non-French= Orange
Germans= Red
Pic1: 31.12.14
Pic2: 31.12.15
Pic3: 31.12.16
Pic4: 31.12.17
Last month, Emmanuel Macron had “no mandate to speak on behalf of Europe” per his critics.
Now that he makes it crystal clear that the President of France speaks on behalf of France, same critics say he is “too Franco-centric”.
Mad if you do, mad if you don’t…
@jeffgoldesq
@KyivIndependent
America’s role during WW1 is way overblown.
Blue: French troops (5 million casualties)
Red: German troops (5 million casualties)
Purple: US troops (280,000 casualties)
Who was the majority partner from 14-18 on the allied side of the Western Front? Below maps from the excellent visually makes it easy to see who..
French= Blue
Non-French= Orange
Germans= Red
Pic1: 31.12.14
Pic2: 31.12.15
Pic3: 31.12.16
Pic4: 31.12.17
“Berlin officials… added that the country only imported French power because it was cheaper, not because their country was suffering shortages.”
Isn’t cheap energy a good thing? 🤷🏾♀️
Germany & France must take their responsibility for enabling Russia's military aggression:
1. If they had not opposed Ukraine's and Georgia's accession to NATO in April 2008, neither war would have happened.
🗣️ “We won the ideological battle, from a Gramscian point of view if I may say so. Five years ago, people said that European sovereignty did not exist. When I mentioned the subject of telecommunications components, who was concerned about it?” 4/
There is more to this Macron interview than the quote below - clearly meant to reassure a domestic audience after the 3 main opposition parties in 🇫🇷 accuses him of warmongering.
He also addresses his relations with Scholz & 🇫🇷🇩🇪 different strategic cultures. A short thread 🧵
Macron on quite a roll. This morning in Le Parisien :
“Perhaps at some point—I don't wish it, and won't initiate it—we'll have to have operations on the ground, whatever they may be, to counter Russian forces. France's strength is that we can do it”
Can everyone stop sharing that thread about how Kremlin propaganda has persuaded French and Germans that Putin is a decent guy. The numbers are nonsense.
Latest Pew Research poll has French and Germans very strongly opposed to Putin
I actually laughed. 💀
The truth is… the more people overreact to whatever he is saying, the more Macron will double down on his positions. That is Macronology 101.
German commentators hyperventilating over Macron these the past few weeks tend to remove *the French* out of the equation too quickly.
The French President addresses the nation and for some reasons they’re like: “This is ALL ABOUT Germany.” 🤡
This may be an unpopular opinion as everyone is so excited about Macron. But his new rhetoric, the squabbles with Berlin, are just political games Paris and Berlin are playing about leadership in Europe. There is little in it for Ukraine - or has Macron suddenly doubled support?
It’s that wonderful time of the year when the Anglophone press likes to weigh in on the “creaking” French-German relations. It’s truly fascinating.
- Exhibit A: Creaking Franco-German tandem delays EU decisions via
@FT
(this morning)
In case it wasn’t clear for everyone.
Me when a Frenchman criticizes Macron/France: “Well… Maybe.”
Me when I see a *mildly* offensive tweet about Macron/France in English: “Watch your month!”
What the hell is this thread??!
If only “marginalized groups who experience all 4 forms of segregations and are prone to criminal activities riot in 🇫🇷”, then HOW THE F**K does E. Christie explain violence and looting during the “predominantly white” Yellow Vests protests?
1/
Yesterday I asked why there are riots in France and not in Ukraine.
This is a puzzle I am trying to understand
Here is the most thought-provoking answer by
@EHunterChristie
, but is it correct?
1. France experiences four prominent segregations: spatial, ethnic, 1/
Rafale’s “popularity has also boosted France’s rising status in the international arms trade. Globally over the past two years, it has outsold every other Western jet fighter except Lockheed Martin’s F-35.”
France’s Rafale, a more than 20-year-old, multipurpose jet fighter prized for its ability to carry a large payload of weapons, is enjoying a new lease on life
The Brief — The French connection
"Using the official airplane of such an important nation as France is, of course, a security guarantee for Zelenskyy, but more importantly, it reveals that diplomats in Kyiv and Paris are working hand in hand."
Macron could not be clearer - and the even clearer parts were removed by Politico on the request of the Élysée. In his view, Taiwan is not Europe‘s problem, and Europe should not become „vassals“ of the United States. This brutally undermines his credibility as leader in Europe
Gave it a try.
Stopped reading at “HEAVYWEIGHT French conservative politician Michel Barnier” 💀
And the people in Brussels who are “worried” now are the same people who keep saying that France has become irrelevant (“Europe’s center of gravity is shifting East”). Go figure.
🇸🇪 Saab CEO Micael Johansson: “the transatlantic alliance with the U.S. is important but the balance isn’t right. We depend too much on the U.S. for important defense systems. The money we spend is gigantic: over 60% of 🇪🇺 investment goes to 🇺🇸 defense.” 1/