Electoral Calculus @ElectCalculus Twitter profile

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

4 years

New election graphic showing the migration of voters from 2017 to 2019 with remainers and leavers distinguished. Each figure represents 300,000 voters, or 1pc of all voters. Details at:

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

2 years

Our latest poll-of-polls breaks new ground showing #Conservatives not even the opposition in a new parliament, with #SNP as official opposition to #Labour . Details at:

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

1 year

Our new large MRP poll with @FindoutnowUK for @Telegraph shows #Labour 25% ahead and the Conservatives set to get fewer seats than the SNP. Details at:

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

5 years

What if...? Green supporters switched to voting Lib Dem (other than in Brighton Pavilion). Recent YouGov poll on left, hypothetical scenario on right. The electoral system is not so kind to smaller parties or divided blocs.

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

1 year

Pre-Christmas graphical treat for electoral aficionados - see how voters have migrated between parties and/or not-voting since 2019. #Labour have gained voters from nearly as many directions as the #Conservatives have lost them. Details

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

2 years

New update to our poll-of-polls: #Labour 's extraordinary lead of 23pc over #Conservatives implies an extraordinary majority of 292 seats. That's the biggest predicted majority since (our) records began in 2004. Details at:

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

5 years

What if, @PollyToynbee asked us, the Lib Dems, TIGs and Greens fought together on one slate at the Euro elections? A quick calculation by Electoral Calculus suggests they could gain about half a dozen extra seats. Read her full story:

Why won’t the remain parties work together for the EU elections? | Polly Toynbee

If the Lib Dems, Greens and Change UK formed a single pro-Europe grouping they’d do far better, says Guardian columnist Polly Toynbee

www.theguardian.com

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

4 years

FINAL PREDICTION: Our final poll-of-polls has the #Conservative lead over #Labour around 9-10pc, which could give a workable majority if the polls are correct. Today is the day for one final poll with a sample size of 46,842,628 (approx). Let the people choose.

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

4 years

NEW PREDICTION: #Brexit party standing aside in seats won by #Conservatives in 2017 is worth about twelve more seats to the Cons. All our predictions now updated to reflect this.

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

3 years

Our initial estimates of the new parliamentary seats in Wales are: Labour 18 (-4), Conservative 12 (-2), Plaid Cymru 2 (-2). So all parties take a bit of a hit, as eight seats disappear in Wales overall.

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

2 years

Our new monthly poll-of-polls predicts #Labour to get outright majority in Parliament, for first time since 2014, with 10pc lead over #Conservatives . Johnson, Raab, IDS, Shapps could lose their seats. Details at:

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

2 years

Our new MRP poll today for @Con_Soc shows that if #Labour , #LibDems and #Greens could agree to co-operate, this would be the result at a general election. Details at:

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

4 years

Fun Fact: the average #Conservative lead over #Labour was 13pc last week. At the same point in the last general election, Theresa May's average lead over Labour was 15pc. Just saying.

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

4 years

Update on the comparison graph with 2017. The #Conservative lead over #Labour has continued its decline: Boris Johnson has not yet really done better than Theresa May at any stage of the campaign so far.

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

5 years

NEW PREDICTION: #Conservative lead of 8pc over #Labour in our monthly poll-of-polls would give them an overall majority of 62 seats. First time since 2017 that Cons predicted to win majority. Details at:

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

7 years

NEW BOUNDARIES DEAL FRESH BLOW TO TORIES. Cons are not helped much by new boundaries - and are still in a minority.

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

4 years

NEW PREDICTION: All new weekend poll-of-polls shows #Conservative bounce back with lead above 10pc and still on track for a moderate majority. But pollsters still divided and situation volatile. Numbers at:

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

2 years

New poll with @FindoutnowUK asks people how they would vote in a hypothetical general election with each of the possible Conservative leaders. None of them look like an election winner at this stage. Details at:

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

1 year

Our first monthly poll-of-polls this year shows #Labour continues to have a lead of more than 20pc over #Conservatives . If people voted the same way at a general election, it would be a big Labour win. Details at:

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

2 years

Local Geography Facts: Of all district councils up for election in May, #Norwich has the weirdest shape, since the city's territory includes over ten miles of the River Yare but not the land either side of it (for historic dredging reasons), giving a tadpole-like shape.

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

9 months

Our new MRP poll with @FindoutnowUK for @Channel4News shows Labour set for a big election victory. Full details and data tables now available at:

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

3 years

New poll by #FindOutNow and Electoral Calculus for Daily Express shows #SNP on course for Scottish parliamentary majority.

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

27 days

New infographic shows how voters have moved around since 2019. Most Conservative voters have switched allegiance, but in many different directions. Full story at:

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

4 years

See the electoral battleground as a map, with a red 90pc-confidence oval around our central prediction (individual polls shown in green). Details at:

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

4 years

Intriguingly, @BestForBritain 's large MRP poll produces very similar answers to our monthly regression-based poll-of-polls. They have Con 364, Lab 189, LibDem 23, PC 3, Green 1 (before TV adjustments), cf ours below.

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

1 year

Our latest poll-of-polls shows #Labour 's lead over the #Conservatives barely changed after the appointment of Sunak as PM. Dead cats bounce more than that. Labour 25pc ahead and still on course for a hyper-landslide. Details at:

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

4 years

NEW PREDICTION: Our new poll-of-polls show #Conservative lead over #Labour stable at around 10pc, which would be a working majority of 46. But different pollsters have different numbers. Details at:

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

4 years

NEW PREDICTION: Our new poll of polls shows increased #Conservative lead of 13pc over #Labour , as smaller parties squeezed by the big two. If polls correct, that would be a comfortable Conservative majority. Full figures at:

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

4 years

Fun fact: if you feed the actual GB+Scotland election vote shares into our seat calculator, then you get a result which is not a million miles away from the actual result. Not a bad result for the seat model. Try it yourself at:

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

4 years

Nice to see the YouGov regression model showing the Conservatives on 359, very similar to our own regression model which had 359-365 over the last week. Our most recent prediction saw that soften yesterday to 342. Keep watching for our updates - more to come.

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

2 years

Our new year poll-of-polls shows #Labour well ahead of the #Conservatives and likely to form the next government if there were a fresh general election, for the first time since Boris Johnson became Con leader. Details at:

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

2 years

Our new monthly poll-of-polls has a #Labour lead of 15pc over the #Conservatives , which is enough for a landslide three-figure Labour majority. Details at:

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

3 years

Our new boundary analysis now contains full lists of disappearing seats, seats changing party, and newly-formed seats. Details at:

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

4 years

NEW PREDICTION: Update with our latest poll-of-polls has the #Conservative lead over #Labour still around 10pc which could give a working majority. But still considerable uncertainty. Full details at:

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

4 years

Also for the record, the actual election result (yellow dot) was well within our 90pc confidence zone (red oval) on the battlemap, which is a good result for the polling industry. Well done!

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

1 year

Our final poll-of-polls for the year shows #Labour keeping their 20pc lead over the #Conservatives and still on track for a landslide. Details at:

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

4 years

Comparing the Con/Lab lead over this year's election campaign with that in 2017 shows that May was doing better than Johnson in the early stages, and that an apparent strong lead can fade away. But history does not always repeat.

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

2 years

Our latest monthly poll-of-polls shows #Labour gaining ground on the #Conservatives and now are just 4pc behind, which could be enough to remove the Con majority in parliament. Details at:

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

4 years

UPDATED PREDICTION: Our latest poll-of-polls has the #Conservative lead over #Labour steady at around 10pc. Now included are the local candidate pacts from #UniteToRemain which could swing a handful of seats. More details at:

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

4 years

We're taking a little break now. Good night/good morning to everyone who stayed with us.

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

5 years

NEW: Revised prediction baseline based on new political landscape with the rise of #BrexitParty and #LibDems . Predictions should be a bit more accurate. New current prediction has #Labour just ahead, but not by much. Details at:

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

4 years

NEW PREDICTION: New Scottish poll and latest poll-of-polls now gives #Conservatives slim majority of only 12 seats. Full figures at:

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

4 years

NEW PREDICTION: Our latest poll-of-polls plus new Scotland poll has the #Conservative lead over #Labour steady at around 10pc, but predicted majority now at 20, with uncertainties around that. A week can be a long time in high-volatility politics. See:

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

27 days

Our latest poll-of-polls shows #Labour 's lead over the #Conservatives slightly up at 19pc, with the Conservatives set to win fewer than 100 seats. Details at:

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

5 years

NEW SCOTTISH PREDICTION: Our official latest poll-of-polls for Scotland show some gains for the #SNP at the expense of #Labour . Details at:

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

2 years

New MRP poll with @FindoutnowUK has #Labour lead of 6pc and likely to form a government. A third of #Conservative MPs, including Boris Johnson, could lose their seats. Details at:

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

3 years

New regression poll by us and @FindoutnowUK for the Constitution Society shows an electoral pact between #Labour , #LibDems and Greens could take over 50 seats from #Conservatives . Details at:

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

4 years

New prediction: Our monthly poll-of-polls predicts the #Conservatives without an overall majority for the first time since Boris Johnson became leader. Full details at:

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

2 years

Our new monthly poll-of-polls has #Labour and #Conservative neck-and-neck in vote share for first time in a year. Cons predicted to win more seats, but Keir Starmer more likely to be PM. Details at:

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

4 years

Exit poll has Con maj of 86.

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

4 years

Rumoured recount in Blyth Valley. If true, the Conservative majority could be above 100.

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

5 years

Interesting new poll by #DailyTelegraph and @ComRes suggests Boris Johnson could win the Conservatives a large majority at a general election if he becomes leader. Other candidates would do less well.

Boris Johnson on course for 140-seat majority at general election if he becomes Tory leader, poll...

Boris Johnson is the only Tory leadership candidate capable of beating both Jeremy Corbyn and the Brexit Party, according to new polling which suggests he would win a crushing 140-seat majority for...

www.telegraph.co.uk

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

4 years

NEW PREDICTION: Our latest poll-of-polls shows a #Conservative majority of 22. Also a comparison of our baseline with the big YouGov MRP - which are not so far apart. Details at:

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

3 years

New large-scale regression poll of 14,000 respondents for Sunday Telegraph by @FindoutnowUK and Electoral Calculus has 13pc lead for #Conservatives , who are predicted large majority. Details:

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

4 years

NEW PREDICTION: New polls plus revised baseline for political geography reduces #Conservative majority and increases chances of hung parliament. Details at:

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

4 years

For regression analysis, such as MRP, we think that you don't need super-large samples to get a reasonable result. This agrees with both academic theory and our own testing. Last night's big YouGov MRP also agrees closely with our own regression poll from earlier in the day.

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

2 years

New today, read Prof Richard Rose on why Labour's Chances are Better than the Polls Show, at Electoral Calculus:

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

5 years

New analysis of seven voter tribes in three-dimensional space. Details at:

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

4 years

NEW PREDICTION: Our latest poll-of-polls has a 9pc #Conservative lead over #Labour , with a working majority. But polls still diverse, and tactical voting could make a difference. Details at:

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

7 years

@PeterR3001 @TheGreenParty #BristolWest predicted Green gain from Lab (on current polls).

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

4 years

Con gain Blyth Valley with 2pc maj. That's a surprise based on our figures and could be a Con maj of more than 100.

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

4 years

New Boundaries: If the proposed new seat boundaries had been in force, the Conservatives could have had a majority of 104 seats. Full details of all new seats with the 2019 result here:

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

4 years

NEW confidence intervals for predicted seats on the front page today. 'Low Seats' and 'High Seats' values show the 90pc confidence interval for the seats won by each party, to give a quantitative idea of the uncertainty. See it at:

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

4 years

NEW PREDICTION: Our new poll-of-polls has the #Conservatives 11pc ahead of #Labour as smaller parties get squeezed. Would lead to a comfortable Con majority (if polls correct). Details at:

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

2 years

Details of our new poll with @FindoutnowUK for @Channel4News showing predicted Labour landslide now available at:

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

4 years

Our new poll-of-polls shows very strong public support for the UK coronavirus lockdown, plus increased confidence in the govt, which feeds through into some more support for the Conservative party. More analysis at:

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

4 years

New data (2/4): 2019 results now estimated at ward and street level using our proven regression-based techniques. Enter your postcode on this page to see how your neighbourhood voted:

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

5 years

Hi @TheEconomist . When you said "there is no evidence that the 52% who voted for Brexit support the no-deal variety" did you miss this analysis by Sir John Curtice:

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

4 years

NEW PREDICTION: Our new poll-of-polls show the #Conservative lead over #Labour steady at 13pc, which would lead to a Con majority if that's what happens. Full figures at:

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

4 years

All New Northern Ireland MRP poll by @LucidTalk and @ElectCalculus for @RemainUtd shows DUP on 10 seats, Sinn Fein on 6, and SDLP on 2. And Alliance could win 2 seats if there's enough tactical voting. Details at:

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

4 years

NEW PREDICTION: Our latest poll-of-polls has the #Conservative lead over #Labour narrowing to 11pc. That would still be a Con majority, but not so big. Big Q: is this just noise or the signal at the start of a trend? Full numbers at:

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

4 years

This one is only for the most dedicated political obsessives ..., you can now make your own predictions for the next election based on the 2019 result. Just choose 'Current 2019 boundaries' from

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

5 years

NEW MODEL: Electoral Calculus Predictions now include #Brexit party and Change UK using new MRP method. #Labour predicted to be near a majority after #Conservative slump. New parties get votes, but few seats. Details at:

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

2 years

Our latest monthly poll-of-polls has #Labour lead up to 8pc over #Conservatives , with a Labour government increasingly likely. Details at:

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

4 years

New graphic showing how every seat swung from 2017 to 2019. A seat's stalk shows swing, and its blob is the 2019 position. Full details and the browsable graphic:

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

5 years

NEW PREDICTION: Using latest polls with #BrexitParty and Change UK, Electoral Calculus has initial estimates of likely result. Still early days on modelling, so may improve later. More details:

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

4 years

New regression poll analysed by Electoral Calculus on behalf of @remainutd shows #Conservatives 7pc ahead and on 340 seats (no tactical voting) or 322 seats (with pro-Remain tactical voting).

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

4 years

New prediction. #Labour continue to gain ground from both #Conservatives and #LibDems . Lab only 5pc behind Con, with predicted Con narrow majority of 18, but Lab still distant from outright majority. Full details at:

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

4 years

Let's remember there is uncertainty around all predictions. Here are the probabilities of the various outcomes. An outright #Conservative majority is most likely, but there is a significant chance of a different result. No chickens can be counted yet.

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

4 years

Comparing with 2017, the #Conservatives are now doing better than they did two years ago. But poll error is possible again - just as it was then with the final jump down on the last day.

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

11 months

Our new poll-of-polls shows #Labour consolidating its lead over the #Conservatives , now at 16pc (up from 15pc last month). Still a landslide for Labour on these figures. Details at:

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

5 years

Tactical Voting Feature Back: Thanks to @ElectionMapsUK for prodding a refresh of the tactical voting params to reinstate this popular model feature. Available now for all parties at

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

5 years

NEW PREDICTION: Our monthly poll-of-polls has the #Conservatives 10pc ahead of #Labour which would give them a comfortable majority. But polling error, campaign swing, and tactical voting could all change that. Details at:

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

4 years

BBC reports Curtice suggests Con majority might be softer than 86.

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

4 years

Looking afresh at the comparison with their poll lead performance in 2017, the Con lead is now (just) ahead for the first time with twelve days to go. But things can easily change for either big party in the last fortnight.

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

3 months

Our latest poll-of-polls has #Labour about 20pc ahead of the #Conservatives , which would give them a massive majority. Labour also ahead of the #SNP in Scotland, and Reform just ahead of the Lib Dems. Details at:

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

4 years

It's obviously too soon to start making predictions again, because only the obsessives are interested. But, if there were an election now, the Conservative majority would be larger while Labour ponder their next leader.

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

5 years

Coming Soon: in collaboration with our good friends at @LucidTalk we will have polling for Northern Ireland voting intention with NI seat predictions, analysis and information. Dummy prototype page at:

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

4 years

Cons unexpectedly gain Norfolk North from Lib Dems

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

1 year

@redgraeme Hi Graeme, that migration exists but it's only half the size of the migration in the other direction. The graphic shows the net flow, which is about 5 people out of a hundred moving from non-voting to Labour.

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

8 months

Fun fact: according to the new census, the population-weighted centre (median) of the UK is Cash's Park in #Coventry . Half the population lives north, east, south and west of there respectively. And half live within 90 miles of it (red circle).

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

3 years

New regression poll by Electoral Calculus and @FindoutnowUK for @PrprtyChronicle shows where the Nimbys are in Britain. Some areas (green) want more property development locally, and others (red) don't. Details at:

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

4 years

Exit poll translates into a 14pc Con lead over Labour, perhaps CON 41pc, LAB 27pc.

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

4 years

Our traditional and defiantly low-tech election night slide-o-meter sheets are now available for 2019. Just print them out and bring your own coloured marker pens and you are ready to go. Download from:

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

5 years

Did you know? that @YouGov poll results are a bit different from the other pollsters: they see #LibDem ahead of #Labour . If that's right, and they were quite accurate at the EU elections, then a YouGov-only poll of 4 polls gives this forecast:

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

7 years

LIVE PREDICTION: Based on April polls, Cons get majority of around 130 seats. Bad for Labour. Shrewd move by May.

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

5 years

NEW PREDICTION: Our poll of polls for January shows #Conservative and #Labour very close in both predicted vote share and seats. Parliament could be pretty badly hung if election called. Details at:

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

4 years

NEW SCOTTISH PREDICTION: Panelbase poll for Sunday Times has #Conservatives strengthening back to 2017 levels, with #Labour and #LibDems also gaining on recent polls. #SNP still expected to gain seats. (NB Brexit/Green vote shares have place-holder estimates.)

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

3 years

New today - seat-by-seat predictions and maps for the proposed new constituency boundaries with full details.

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Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

4 years

Howzat. Sir John Curtice has just said 364 for Conservatives on live tv, which is a majority of 78. A triumph for finger-counting on our side.

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