Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy. Author, The UAE: Power, Politics & Policymaking and other books on regional politics & security in the Gulf
Pleased to announce the publication of Qatar and the Gulf Crisis, now available from
@HurstPublishers
in London.
The book will be published in North America by Oxford University Press on May 1, 2020.
"Tillerson blamed Kushner for Trump’s abrupt endorsement of a provocative blockade and diplomatic campaign against Qatar by Saudi Arabia and several allies in June 2017."
On the murder of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi inside the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul, Pompeo was “struck and frustrated by how it hasn’t blown over"
I have been tracking the region for 20 years & the levels of anger are off the charts different to anything I can remember.
Aside from the constant images from Gaza, I suspect part of this is the acute perception of double standards after 2 yrs of lecturing about Russia-Ukraine.
Diplomatic cables from US embassies in Oman & Egypt warn Biden administration that its stance on Israel risks “losing Arab publics for a generation.”
Reporting by
@priscialva
&
@MarquardtA
for CNN:
What a line from
@EdwardGLuce
'Like a dog returning to its vomit, I fear the Conservative party has already forgotten that Johnson was the least popular postwar prime minister until Truss came along.'
Canceled my Christmas trip to England because of Omicron, so naturally got hit by a car in Houston walking home from work.
Could’ve been a lot worse, but definitely feel I’ve used up at least 3 of my 9 lives.
Feeling rather more thankful than festive this Xmas
كيف تبقى مُطلعاً على الأمور بالبلاد؟
جلالة السلطان يجيب: "أذهب للشعب أذهب إليهم في الشارع في القرى في المدن وأحياناً هم يستوقفونني"
#قابوس_قلوبنا_معك #السلطان_قابوس_بن_سعيد
The Armistice that ended the First World War was signed at 5.10 am on November 11, 1918, but it did not take effect until 11 am. That final morning of the war claimed nearly 11,000 casualties, including more than 2700 deaths, the final one being recorded at 10.59 am.
THREAD ON OMANI SUCCESSION.
Sultan Qaboos appointed a Prime Minister in 1970-71 (his uncle, Tariq bin Taimur) and married (briefly) in 1976 but did not have issue. It is the sons of Tariq bin Taimur who are often spoken of as possible successors to Sultan Qaboos.
"Any way you slice it, MBS has done more change than anyone in the last 50 years," says Ali Shihabi, who heads the Arabia Foundation. Reform is "an art rather than a science," he says, "and being an art, there are going to be mistakes. "
فيديو لصحيفة الغارديان البريطانية للقادة المشاركين في قمة مجموعة العشرين، ويظهر فيه م.ب.س، ولا نحتاج لتعليق حول الموقف المحرج الذي ألَم به والتجاهل الذي حظي به
The brutal murder of Jamal Khashoggi was an assault on human rights.
But for a year the Trump Admin refused to make public an unclassified report on Saudi Arabia's culpability.
I have asked Director Haines to declassify this report. There must be accountability and justice.
'The Guardian was told last week that Johnson was more seriously ill than either he or his officials were prepared to admit, and that he was being seen by doctors who were concerned about his breathing.'
Here is the map from an exhibit in the Louvre Abu Dhabi that omits the Qatari pensinsula from the Lower Gulf. The label alongside it reads:
Vase
United Arab Emirates, Ramilah, 1000-500 BCE
Soft stone
Al-Ain National Museum
The UAE got a lot out of Trump's final hours (Broidy pardon, tariff exemption, F-35/drone sale.) It wouldn't surprise me in the least if Trump and/or members of his family re-emerge in Dubai or Abu Dhabi, and grow much of their post-presidential business interests from there.
Good (long) article by Roger Cohen. This nugget stood out (about the UAE Ambassador in DC):
"Otaiba knew of Rex W. Tillerson’s ouster as secretary of state and his replacement with Mike Pompeo three months before it happened."
'Why do the Ukrainian victims of war crimes deserve urgent accountability and legal redress, but Palestinian victims do not? Why, when it comes to Palestine, is the clarity that peace only comes through freedom and self-determination completely absent?'
'Tillerson “told Kushner that his interference had endangered the US”, an unidentified Tillerson aide tells Ward. Tillerson is also said to have read negative “chatter” about himself in intelligence reports after Kushner belittled him to Kushner’s friend Mohammed bin Salman'
"Tillerson blamed Kushner for Trump’s abrupt endorsement of a provocative blockade and diplomatic campaign against Qatar by Saudi Arabia and several allies in June 2017."
The sight of Bahrain's players celebrating with their fans in the stadium in Doha, and being handed their medals by the Emir of Qatar, is a world away from the optics in the final of the Asian Cup hosted by the UAE in January 2019.
2019 Gulf Cup in Qatar
The Amir H H Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani hands over the trophy to Bahrain's Sayed Mohammed Jaafar (right) after the Gulf Cup Final at Al Duhail Stadium on Sunday. Bahrain beat Saudi Arabia 1-0 in the final.
Pic: Reuters
CNN 'has found that American-made armored vehicles which were sold to the UAE and Saudi Arabia have been transferred - in violation of their agreements with Washington - to groups incl. al Qaeda-linked fighters, Iranian-backed rebels & separatist militias'
The rupture in Saudi diplomatic relations with Canada underscores how the 'new' Saudi Arabia that Mohammed bin Salman is putting together is in absolutely no mood to tolerate any form of criticism of its handling of its domestic affairs.
Now that President-elect Biden will take office on Jan 20, how might his administration approach key issues in the Middle East?
A thread on what some of Biden's advisors have been saying recently, with the caveat that this may not necessarily translate into policy once in govt
“I called the King,” he continued. “I like the King. I said ‘King, we’re losing our ass defending you, King, and you have a lot of money.’ That’s true. And he said ‘but why would you be calling me, nobody has ever made such a call before.’
MBS 'said he had sent the U.A.E. a list of demands (...) If the smaller Gulf nation didn’t fall in line, MBS warned, Saudi Arabia was prepared to take punitive steps, much like it did against Qatar in 2017'
“It will be worse than what I did with Qatar"
Forceful words from Oman’s foreign minister which reflect the depth of anger over Gaza. U.S. officials would do well to take note of such language from a close partner with a long record of careful and measured engagement
The use of the veto at Security Council is a shameful insult to humanitarian norms. I deeply regret that the United States should sacrifice the lives of innocent civilians for the cause of Zionism. Long after we are gone the world will look back on today with shame.
Professor Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, a noted scholar in political science, described the crisis with Washington as the worst in “50 years”.
Biden rebuffed as US relations with Saudi Arabia and UAE hit new low
A group of Saudi students in Canada have formed a coordination committee and called "for the immediate review of our government’s decision, which will have many negative repercussions that will blow our scientific, professional and academic future"
Open letter from Middle East scholars on NYT's 'Saudi Arabia's Arab Spring, at Last' article.
"Friedman's description of the situation in Saudi Arabia is so divorced from reality as to call into question his competence as a journalist or opinion writer"
Prince Khalid al-Faisal returned home from Ankara with a bleak message for the royal family: “It is really difficult to get out of this one,” Prince Khalid told relatives after his return
This may be the first time in Andrew's life that he cannot make something he doesn't like go away simply by giving an order or expressing a preference.
Most shocking to me is that Prince Andrew's attorney wanted the judge to say NY's law giving child sexual abuse victims more time to sue is unconstitutional.
This would have blocked access to justice for so many victims.
Does the Queen know what her son is attempting to do?
"Almost in unison, Jared Kushner, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, and bin Salman's paid mouthpieces in Washington are deploying the same argument: that unseating bin Salman would destabilise the Kingdom as a whole."
The Middle East Studies Association gives its Academic Freedom award to detained Saudi academic Dr. Hatoon al-Fassi, who is unable to receive it as she has been imprisoned since June.
After their phone call yesterday, Biden in statement congratulates “long-time friend” Mohammed bin Zayed (MBZ) on being “elected” president of the United Arab Emirates.
Jokha Alharthi, the first female Omani novelist to be translated into English, has won the Man Booker International prize for her novel Celestial Bodies.
Saudi Arabia a country that sent a hit squad to murder a resident of the U.S. in a third country, wants the Senate to not interfere in their “internal affairs”.
It's all happening today. Malaysia's government "has ordered the closure of the Saudi-backed King Salman Centre for International Peace (KSCIP) with immediate effect"
'29 arms control and human rights organizations have signed a letter opposing the sale of $23 billion worth of missiles, fighter jets and drones to the United Arab Emirates and asking the U.S. Congress to block the deal.'
As Barbara Leaf prepares to leave her post in Abu Dhabi, the US will be without Ambassadors in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar just as the Trump administration tries to find a solution to the bitter 8-month standoff among critical US partners in the Gulf.
"In the children's section of Abu Dhabi's new flagship Louvre Museum, a map of the southern Gulf completely omits the Qatari peninsula—a geographical deletion that is probably incompatible with France's agreement to let Abu Dhabi use the Louvre's name."
Congratulations to UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed and Israeli Foreign Minister
@yairlapid
on the opening of the Israeli Embassy in the UAE. This is an important step for peace between the two countries.
I’ve written a book on Qatar and the Gulf crisis and sent the manuscript to
@HurstPublishers
today - coincidentally two years to the day since the hack that triggered the blockade.
Mohammed bin Salman 'was so taken aback by the threat that he ordered his aides out of the room so he could continue the discussion in private, according to a U.S. source who was briefed on the discussion by senior administration officials.'
Senator Christopher Van Hollen (D-Md) 'said that the Washington foreign policy establishment, which bought into MBS’s reformist PR campaign, must now answer for its credulity'
“I think a lot of people have been played by the current Saudi leadership"
NYT report comes the same day as Senators Bob Menendez (D-NJ) and Todd Young (R-Ind) introduce the Saudi Arabia Accountability and Yemen Act of 2019 along w/ Senators Jack Reed (D-RI), Lindsey Graham (R-SC), Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Chris Murphy (D-Conn)
"When Mr. al-Qahtani said that any move against Mr. Khashoggi was risky and could create an international uproar, his boss scolded him: Saudi Arabia should not care about international reaction to how it handles its own citizens"
I wager TRUMP blocking BIDEN’s access to US national security agencies, including intelligence briefings and friendly force locations, is because he has a couple of significant operations up his sleeve which may get the green light before 20 Jan.
Humbled and honored to receive the book award at the inaugural Gulf Studies Symposium.
Centers of Power in the Arab Gulf States is my mid-career book, a statement of where I am, 20 years into a lifelong process of learning.
"Not since Iraq’s Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait on August 2, 1990, had Arab powers attempted so radically to redraw the Middle East map. This time, an American president stood w/ the aggressors rather than drew a line in the sand."
Must-read by Juan Cole
A sign of disrespect not only to Qatar but to the Arab world in general - Russia/China is seemingly not an issue, but a World Cup in the Middle East is seen to cross a moral line
BBC broadcasted the opening ceremonies for Russia World Cup and Beijing Olympics for millions despite their human rights records, but refused to broadcast Qatar's.
I.e. BBC 'sportswashed' for giants
#China
and
#Russia
, but self-righteously refused to broadcast
#Qatar
's message.
A Saudi student -- whose identity is kept confidential to protect him from repercussions at home -- writes for CBC News on the impact of the spat with Canada on his studies.
'Omani officials address foreign policy dilemmas through long-term thinking. Muscat avoids sudden and impulsive moves aimed at generating temporary attention and fanfare.'
@GiorgioCafiero
and I examine Oman in light of the Abraham Accords
"Iranians, on average, have become 30% poorer in the past ten years alone. Many believe Iranian leaders are spending money that should be used to improve their lot on war efforts abroad."
Fourteen years ago today, I submitted my PhD, 'The Logistics and Politics of the British Campaigns in the Middle East, 1914-22.'
Seems a lifetime ago now.
2020 is truly the end of an era and a changing of the guard with the deaths first of Sultan Qaboos and now of Emir Sabah, but Oman and Kuwait will continue to play a moderating and balancing role in Gulf affairs.
End of an era w/ passing of Emir of
#Kuwait
, Gulf’s elder statesman. Sabah al-Ahmed played an indispensable role in resolving conflicts for decades. His absence will be tested by neighbors but Kuwaiti FP will continue under Emir Nawaf. Expect domestic changes like we saw in Oman
I am looking forward to speaking at the Gulf International Forum today in Washington, DC, on the theme of The Future of a Disrupted Gulf Region.
Jamal Khashoggi is on the program. He was due to speak in a panel entitled "Free Media & Expression: Suppressed or Triumphant?"