Pikagi
James E. Thorne Profile Banner
James E. Thorne Profile
James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

6,945
Followers
24
Following
2,879
Media
9,149
Statuses

Chief Market Strategist @WellingtonAltus . Astute, observations and conclusions. Based on historical trends and evidence based research. Not investment advice.

Toronto, ON
Joined November 2019
Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.
Pinned Tweet
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
5 days
In the high-stakes realm of global finance, strategic positioning is just as vital as sheer power, echoing Zbigniew Brzezinski's analogy of nations as chess pieces in —The Grand Chessboard. Investors, akin to master chess players, must grasp "geopolitical pivots" to navigate
@wellingtonaltus
Wellington-Altus
@wellingtonaltus
5 days
Who has the next move in the global economic chess match? @DrJStrategy explores the correlation between geopolitics and international investing, and his prediction for investors witnessing the game in real time. Learn more in his June #MarketInsights here:
Tweet media one
1
1
4
0
2
13
Last Seen Profiles
ErinRhys

@txD28DxnY2P4X61

ram

@incestlover33

milady auras

@miladyauras

pecinta IBU2, STW, BINOR & JANDA

@stw_pdg

Tante Cindy

@jandakembangstw

えるえす

@sw27zz2Dcf97511

Ege Bilim Ve Aydınlanma

@ege_bat35

声劇企画『囚われの館』

@nerooo002

Bankroll Freddie

@BankrollFreddie

Fiorella

@tuitella

サクガク公式-私立桜咲ヶ丘女子高等学校てづくりアイドル起業部-

@sakugaku_PR

STW .. Aku Cinta Kau 🥰

@pengen_stw

Helltaker's Harem | 🍉

@HELLSCUSTOMERS

SimpleJohn🕺🕺

@DumboJohn1

ナゐ

@Vgkwy

Lindsey Haswell

@lindsey_haswell

Cal Irvine

@Cal_Irvine

あずみるく🍀🐄🍼

@azuki_to_milk

Gold Digger Sweetie 👑 vegas 8-12

@WorshipSweetie

exy 🖤🌙

@bingeshrex

Aptos Ecosystem

@AptosEcosystems

Metro Fest

@MetroFestUK

STW .. Aku Cinta Kau 🥰

@pengen_stw

Maricota

@Mariroks

Takuya Yamamoto

@TakuyaYamamoto_

STW .. Aku Cinta Kau 🥰

@pengen_stw

كريم ابوزيد

@Ql4q9lUNtMGUS7q

زیمل فاطمہ

@BP_G_

Carlos

@carluxo_

pecinta IBU2, STW, BINOR & JANDA

@stw_pdg

espi! 12/11

@espiconic_exe

NC State Athletics

@PackAthletics

Raxio Data Centre - Uganda

@raxioug

Díscolo

@discolobaq

Emerald Toth

@emerald_toth

INFEKT

@infektdubstep

@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
2 months
The Fed has no choice. If rates are not cut we get a financial crisis. There is too much government debt! We now live in an era of Fiscal Dominance. The term "fiscal dominance" refers to a situation in which the government's fiscal policy (Deficits of 6% and Debt to GDP at
292
306
2K
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
28 days
Simple rule.. liquidity leads risk assets. M2 growth now positive, QT surprise by Fed, rate cuts in 2024. Pain trade due north.
Tweet media one
50
324
2K
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
2 months
Wow .. now CNBC talking about the 212,000…
Tweet media one
99
110
719
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
2 years
Big risk in Canada is that the Bank of Canada assumes that the Canadian Economy is similar to the US economy, a diversified economy. And follows Fed step by step. Canadian economy is not diversified, more dependent on real estate and energy. Housing already getting hit hard.
78
93
666
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
1 year
Home prices April 2023: -4.1%. Biggest drop since 2012. CPI Shelter recorded as up over 8%.
Tweet media one
24
90
337
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
1 year
Why would a rational investor keep money in a zero 0% account at a bank when they can get 4.5% in a money market fund? Even if the deposits are fully insured. Asking for a friend.
63
13
288
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
25 days
Empire Manufacturing big miss. Advanced retail sales big miss. Note the downward revisions. Retail sales ex auto and gas negative. Retail sales control group -0.3%. CPI MOM over 70% shelter and Gasoline. Playing out just like 2007.
Tweet media one
7
35
153
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
2 months
The Fed Needs to pick its poison. Cut Rates, stop QT, or eventually monetize the US Debt. It really has no other options. Welcome to the era of Fiscal Dominance. Debt monetization, also known as monetary financing, is the process by which a government borrows money from the
22
31
151
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
2 months
@igetredpilled Yes Common sense solution ..hard to do…
7
0
148
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
2 months
@SteveRattner @carlquintanilla Full Time Jobs declined! Sorry a Strong Job market and Economy does not have declining Full Time job growth.
Tweet media one
24
29
145
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
2 years
Think about this for 1 minute. Basically no inflation month over month for two consecutive months and even Goldman loses it. Message .. we want deflation now !! Recall June inflation m/m was 1.3%.
@carlquintanilla
Carl Quintanilla
@carlquintanilla
2 years
GOLDMAN: "We now expect a 75bp hike in September followed by 50bp hikes in November and December, which would take the funds rate to 4-4.25% by the end of the year." [Hatzius]
24
71
232
11
51
141
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
2 months
A strong Jobs market and Economy would not have declining Full Time employment. One and Six Months : declining Full Time Jobs. By my tally : 1.3 million full time jobs lost over the past year.
Tweet media one
11
39
140
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
10 months
Why is no one talking about the largest short position ever in the UST 2 year? If it was a stock they would be banging pots and pans 24/7 about how crowded the trade is!! Wonder how much leverage is in the short the UST 2 year trade? ISI chart.
Tweet media one
21
38
133
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
1 month
Deflation on US shores. CEO of Walmart. “We’re seeing deflation”
@TheTranscript_
The Transcript
@TheTranscript_
1 month
Walmart US CEO: "At $WMT, we are now seeing prices that are in line with where they were 12 months ago. I haven’t been able to say that for a few years now...The last few weeks, we've taken even more prices down in areas like produce and meat and fresh food" [ @ABC ]
Tweet media one
2
31
104
14
34
129
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
1 month
Walmart CEO says disinflation and pockets of deflation. Pundits and Journalist on CNBC and Bloomberg say inflation. Chart below says listen to the guy running WALMART.
Tweet media one
7
29
125
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
1 year
My view: Bear Market low hit in Oct 22. Dxy HS top forming target low 90’s S&P 500 hits 4300 in Q2. Jan #’s were caused by historic seasonal adjustments Inflation not caused by low unemployment and this is not the 70’s. No recession Fed pauses and cuts late in 2023
32
20
121
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
28 days
@heavyhazzard If that’s what you believe then short risk assets. That’s what makes a market.
1
1
116
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
1 year
Rallies off Bear Market lows tend to be technical in nature. Symmetry is a big fundamental driver in technical analysis. The Symmetry in the S&P 500 points to rallies similar to 2019 and 2020. In 2019 and 2020 new highs were made.
Tweet media one
4
19
114
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
2 years
@LHSummers Respectfully disagree.
Tweet media one
48
3
111
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
2 years
Dry Bulk Index.. Fed narrative and consensus laps up.. we see no economic slow down or price declines .. really!
Tweet media one
10
27
106
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
26 days
PPI final demand YOY. Let’s look at revisions. Previous period revised down to 1.8%. Core PPI YOY revised down to 2.1%. Old rule: macro data is noisy and the 1st print is usually wrong.
Tweet media one
10
26
102
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
23 days
BlackRock’s Rieder Says US Rate Cuts, Not Hikes, Needed to Tame Inflation. Mr. Rieder says it out loud. Rate cuts will bring inflation down. What I’ve been saying for over 2yrs.
Tweet card media
BlackRock’s Rieder Says Cut, Not Hike, to Tame US Inflation

BlackRock Inc.’s Rick Rieder has some advice that bucks conventional wisdom: The best way for the Federal Reserve to temper inflation will be to lower rates, not hold them higher.

www.bloomberg.com
11
18
99
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
24 days
The Fed has run out of options, and it's mind-boggling how Wall Street so-called experts conveniently overlook some basic facts: monetary policy takes time to kick in, asset prices anticipate the future, labor and price indicators are lagging indicators, CPI driven by OER a
3
18
96
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
2 years
Waiting for the other shoe to drop.
Tweet media one
7
21
93
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
2 months
Super Core PCE 0.183% down from 0.662%. The Super Core leg of the stool for the inflation is permanent sticky crowd just fell off.
Tweet media one
4
24
94
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
2 years
Wall St will soon realize that the majority of inflation was transitory. Supply Shocks need to be digested, just as a Python digests a Pig. narratives can quickly change. The real surprise will be in 2024 when Core PCE is under 2% and we get a deflation scare
4
14
90
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
2 years
With USD breaking out, and at levels not seen since 1997, the Fed looks like it’s ok with creating another global financial crisis.. none of the Fed speakers last week spoke to the risks of the strong USD wrt the rest of the world ..
6
28
89
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
2 months
Why is Gold running? The Fed has no other option. The fiat currency experiment may be coming to an end. For decades we were warned this day would come. Is it here? We’re in an era of Fiscal Dominance like the 1950’s. If we don’t get rate cuts, and a devaluation of the USD, then
Tweet media one
19
21
90
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
1 year
Bank Credit. All Commercial Banks. The only time it’s been lower in the GFC. Negative credit impulses are deflationary.
Tweet media one
8
28
81
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
26 days
In case you missed it..UK jobs -85k. This feels like the GFC all over again.
Tweet media one
5
12
80
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
5 months
@D_Blanchflower We missed you !
1
2
77
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
2 months
When the chairman of the Federal Reserve, the foremost economic institution globally, fails to acknowledge that the Fed, despite its abundance of Ph.Ds, cannot comprehend that the recent uptick in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is primarily driven by factors such as Owners'
13
15
76
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
2 months
The USA is a service based economy. Todays ISM points to continued price declines in the services sector, and continued weak employment. Note the action of yields and thev Japanese Yen to report. Inflation scare is over. Rate cuts will be larger than you think. Watch the
Tweet media one
12
7
74
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
2 years
With the Fed focus on Job market can the Bank of Canada do the same ? According to StatsCan.. 87% of jobs since C-19 are public sector jobs. Think about that for one minute. Please spare the economy is white hot narrative because of the business cycle.
Tweet media one
5
15
69
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
2 months
@Alturamikey How do they reduce the deficit? Cut spending or cut rates.. hard to cut spending easy to cut rates.
24
1
68
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
26 days
Powell today suggest he as well as Officials at the Fed are confused about shelter inflation. “Housing inflation has been a bit of a puzzle” To help the cause, can someone please forward this simple explanation to the Fed. 👇 The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rent methodology
8
10
65
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
1 year
Job openings in construction fell off a cliff. A 49% decline m/m. Interest rates hikes starting to bite. 0ld saying : construction is the business cycle.
Tweet media one
4
13
66
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
6 days
The US manufacturing sector contracted further in May, with the ISM manufacturing PMI falling to 48.7, indicating a faster pace of contraction compared to the previous month. The decline was driven by a significant drop in new orders, which fell by 3.7 points to 45.4, the largest
Tweet media one
8
18
66
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
2 months
@Santiag78758327 So was the Pound Sterling
4
0
65
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
1 month
Core PCE no surprise. Shelter again. MoM basis a big jump in legal fees. US economy is decelerating. Private sector close to contraction. And Real FFR at historic highs. All while the rest of the world’s inflation heads below 2%. Fed is late again.
Tweet media one
4
14
64
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
2 months
US Inflation Is Actually Being Driven by Higher Interest Rates, JPMorgan Says - Bloomberg And there it is higher rates drive inflation. Been saying this for 18 months. All you have to do is objectively look at the data. Now Wall St gets it.
Tweet card media
JPMorgan Makes the Case That High Rates Are Actually Driving Inflation

Costlier mortgages are spilling into rent, and the Fed needs to ease up, Jack Manley says

www.bloomberg.com
8
13
62
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
2 years
They have learned nothing … we will be dealing with deflation in the future. The Fed is over tightening.
8
11
61
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
2 years
Wow.. the narrative may be changing before our eyes.
@financialjuice
FinancialJuice
@financialjuice
2 years
FED'S EVANS: THE FED IS FACING A DIFFICULT MESSAGING PROBLEM AS IT NEARS A DECISION TO HALT THE PACE OF RATE INCREASES.
101
316
2K
7
9
56
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
4 months
We live in Historic times. Powell now owns this. Explicitly stating on the record that no action in March. Ok May is the 1st cut. The consequences of being late again are now on the Powell FOMC. Late to hike and late to cut. 1) Government accumulates Historic levels of
Tweet media one
12
17
57
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
2 years
Wholesale gasoline broke critical level. How folks can’t see deflation coming is beyond me. Wait it gets better. Fed going to raise aggressively into a deflationary episode and all the cool kids agree there are no other alternatives… How about pausing or cutting.
Tweet media one
6
5
53
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
8 months
@baystreetamber “The number of private sector employees was little changed in September..seeing little growth since June” StatCan.
0
5
55
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
24 days
Truth. The consumer is tapped out. Personal Savings back to pre C-19 levels and Credit Card delinquency rate acceleration to the upside. Facts matter!
Tweet media one
Tweet media two
3
8
54
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
1 year
Amazing just a few months ago this was the MSM narrative. Wrong again. Now we have a global glut of chips ..
Tweet media one
5
7
52
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
5 months
PMI is the business cycle. PMI Canada 45.4. The slowdown is gaining momentum. Bank of Canada has over tightened. #BoC needs to cut rates now. FYI the top contributor to CPI (30%) is mortgage interest cost (the BoC). #inflation is not the problem in Canada.
Tweet media one
9
13
52
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
11 months
If Chair Powell can pull off a soft landing then 2 things will result. 1) A strong bull market in risk assets until 2026. A tail risk no one has forecasted. 2) Mr Powells legacy will be that of one of the top CB in Modern History. Think about that for 1 minute.
12
9
52
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
2 months
Gold is yelling at us. Irresponsible Fiscal Policy has reached its tipping point. Poor Bond auctions abound. Welcome to the era of Fiscal Dominance.
Tweet media one
4
7
53
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
2 years
Tip of the spear. Over 11,000 layoff in trucking. Truck transportation jobs walloped in September: BLS data via @freightwaves
Tweet card media
Truck transportation jobs walloped in September: BLS data

Truck transportation jobs in September dropped by an amount exceeded in the last 10 years only by the start of the pandemic.

www.freightwaves.com
2
23
49
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
9 months
The Fed has always been cutting FFR (even Volcker) when RGDI is negative. The only time a Fed has raised rates when RGDI was negative was today, Jay Powells Fed. Safe to say that Powell is not Arther Burns and is more Hawkish the Paul Volcker.
Tweet media one
6
11
50
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
5 months
PPI leads CPI and PCE. PPI Final Demand December-0.1% 3M Ann -2.4% Deflation 👇 #inflation #fed
Tweet media one
6
9
50
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
8 months
@baystreetamber Table 2 of StatCan report .. 0% change in private sector ..
Tweet media one
3
11
49
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
1 year
Alan Blinders paper on what really went down in the 1970’s is the basis of my thesis. “ to this day give credit to the recession for breaking the back of double digit inflation..in fact it was the waning of special factors that did the trick” Volcker is a false Prophet.
Tweet media one
6
14
51
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
11 months
Deflation : since 1948 when we get the PPI with this level of deflation, CPI follows to levels below the Fed’s target of 2%. Maybe this time it’s different. One thing is clear from the data, this is not the 1970’s. Deflation is the real risk.
Tweet media one
5
8
50
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
1 month
US gasoline demand. Ignore the noise. The economy is slowing. Private sector is most likely contracting as we speak. Gasoline demand weak. 👇
Tweet media one
3
8
48
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
1 year
Consequence of Banking Crisis will be a dramatic decline in credit creation. Which has significant deflationary effects. How this is missed by many in beyond me,
9
8
47
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
2 years
The false premise, that the inflation caused by exogenous shock and fiscal policy was akin to the 1970’s era inflation where extreme rate hikes were required, is now being put in the dust bin. Correct era to use is post WWII. Let the Irish goodbyes begin as Wall St pivots.
8
13
47
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
8 days
Don’t kid yourself the inversion of the Yield Curve matters. Yes the experiment that was MMT has delayed the inevitable, a recession. C&I loan growth now negative. Since 1950 when C&I growth goes negative a recession occurs.
Tweet media one
5
9
48
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
1 year
the data will reveal that : inflation was temporary, the forces of secular stagnation and deflation have been strengthened, the Fed blinked when they bought the “this is the 197Os narrative” and Powell was worried about his legacy. note the pivot from the Vice chair last week.
4
5
45
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
11 months
@paulkrugman Using the IS-LM model as the fulcrum of monetary policy is just wrong. The last 2.5% of FFR hikes were not needed. Up here in Canada.. 30% of CPI is explicitly attributed to BoC.. that’s StatCan saying it. If you exclude BoC effects .. CPI is 2.5%.. and they hiked.
3
6
47
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
4 months
BLS Data ..how long until the Algo’s look into the data and stop trading off the headline? Household Survey 31K loss of jobs. Average weekly hours declined to 34.1. Average weekly earnings declined.
Tweet media one
3
12
44
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
2 months
Fiscal Dominance and Yellen trip to China. Amid the paradigm of fiscal dominance, the 2024 interactions between the US and China, including US Treasury Secretary Yellen's visit to China, could signal a potential resolution to their financial tensions. Could an implicit
8
9
45
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
1 month
BOJ intervention. Are we in the early days of a trade war between China, Japan and the USA? The birth of a new narrative is upon us.
Tweet media one
3
3
46
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
11 months
Common sense suggest the BoC should partition off the component of CPI that its aggressive rate policy generated. If they did, CPI is 2.5%. BoC hiked today creating MORE inflation. Common sense in is short supply up here in the Great White North.
Tweet card media
The Bank of Canada is making a massive policy mistake: Jim Thorne

Jim Thorne, chief market strategist at Wellington-Altus Private Wealth, and Robert Kavcic, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, joins BNN Bloomberg to discuss their expectations for getting...

www.bnnbloomberg.ca
6
18
46
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
2 months
PCE MoM 0.26% Street expected 0.36% Note the big deceleration in PCE services 0.3%. 6M annualized 2.4% Deceleration for Jan to Feb. The 1st 2 months of the year are typically hot. Inflation fears are misplaced.
Tweet media one
2
8
46
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
1 year
Where are all the Phillips Curve ideologues now? Fed was encouraged to aggressively hike rates and dramatically drain liquidity. Why? Inflation caused by demand and labor. Wrong! Fed ignored Financial Stability risks that were always present! Fed owns this crisis.
3
16
44
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
1 year
Fed aggressively raised rates and initiated aggressive QT with a disregard of the Financial Stability consequences. Why ? Their belief that low unemployment caused inflation. The Fed and their cheerleaders rational: there is no other alternative. The Fed owns this.
6
7
42
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
2 months
Why is capital attracted to Gold and Bitcoin. Net Interest Payment on Debt as a percentage of GDP 3.1%. The unsustainable Fiscal situation cannot continue. Something will break.
Tweet media one
5
4
45
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
1 month
It's concerning to see such a crucial figure display a fundamental lack of understanding of the key problems we face as a society face. It's essential for individuals in important positions to have a strong grasp of the issues they are dealing with.
@JanGold_
Jan Nieuwenhuijs
@JanGold_
1 month
Why does the US government borrow money if it can print its own currency? Answer by Chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers Jared Bernstein:
39
44
178
11
4
44
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
3 months
CPI Ex Shelter slows to 1.3% YoY. Canada’s inflation is not caused by an imbalance between private sector demand and supply. Overnight rate of 5% is now contributing to the inflation problem.
7
2
44
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
6 days
Atlanta Fed GDP forecast. From over 4% to 1.8% in a New York minute.
Tweet media one
5
7
46
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
7 months
Canada slipping into recession, 2 Yields declining. My call is the BoC cuts before the Fed. They aggressively raised first, cutting first would be consistent.
Tweet media one
3
4
43
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
1 year
Old rule: Fed follows the credit market. When the spread between the 2 year and the FFR has been this large the Fed was already cutting. Why the Fed wants to continue to raise is beyond me. Shows lack of prudence and disregard for financial stability risk.
Tweet media one
5
8
41
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
1 year
How long until the full extent of the credit contraction is fully evident for all to see? It’s coming .. growth will slow and deflation will be upon us soon enough.
1
11
39
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
1 year
Inflation is coming down. The effects most aggressive rate hikes in modern history have yet to be felt. Economic growth is cooling. Wages growth is not spiralling out of control. Inflation expectations well anchored. Why continue to raise rate?
13
5
40
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
2 months
So wrong. The ISM PMI a massive 50.3%. LOL What do all the cheerleaders ignore again. A deficit of close to 6% of GDP and Debt / GDP levels at wartime levels.. and all the US economy could muster is a 50 print. It’s call Confirmation Bias kids.
Tweet media one
1
8
40
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
2 months
Downward revision of BLS Jobs Data. From Jan 2023 to Jan 2024 final revisions reduce Jobs by 457,000. 11 of 13 months revisions were down. You have to go back to 2008 to match this record.
Tweet media one
3
9
42
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
4 months
In Canada, there is clear evidence that interest rate hikes, particularly in mortgage interest costs, account for 30% of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), making it the largest contributor to inflation. This evidence supports the theory that interest rate hikes can cause inflation.
4
6
40
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
1 year
When did Paul Volcker claim victory over inflation, August 1982. Fact: 8 month annualized PCE in August 1982 was 5.2%!!! Fact: it’s currently 3.2%. A full 2% below the level that Volcker claimed victory in 1982. Many high profile economists pick the Volcker era not me.
Tweet media one
6
6
40
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
7 months
1.5% CPI less shelter. The inflation shock is over, and has been for some time. Where are the pundits on Fintwit that warned about the massive spike in inflation that was going to happen in the back half of 2023? Where is the inflation is permanent crowd now ?
Tweet media one
10
7
39
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
9 days
Canada GDP..MOM 0%, YOY 0.6% Big downward revisions. All with extreme levels of Government Spending and a BOC rate of 5%, and inflation within the BOC target range. Not to mention a historic inversion of the yield curve. Monetary Policy has long lags, buckle up.
Tweet media one
4
8
41
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
7 months
Oil in contango, jobless numbers rising, Retail sales below LT ave. CPI in disinflation, PPI in deflation. Sugar High FP GDP growth. As the full effects of the most aggressive rate hike policy in history loom, the evidence is mounting. A historic policy mistake is upon us.
5
5
40
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
2 months
The through line in all of this: the Fed has enough data to support rate cuts. The Fed needs to normalize rates. We live in a new era of Fiscal Dominance. Rate cuts need to be substantial to uninvert the yield curve. Global reflation cycle until late 2025. Ignore the
4
8
41
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
9 months
-0.2% Canada GDP contracted in Q2. Recall the BoC said the economy was overheating just months ago to justify rate hikes!!! Been the lone wolf up here saying we need rate cuts!! Maybe folks will start to listen.
6
6
40
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
1 month
Core trend of PCE from the NY Fed. Downward revisions from previous months. How the Fed cannot not get confidence that inflation is coming down is beyond me. Multivariate Core Trend Inflation 2.6%.
Tweet media one
3
9
41
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
2 months
Sorry folks that’s a weak GDP print. With extreme generational fiscal stimulus we get a 1.6% print. Watch pundits flip narritives before your eyes. Some shops were forecasting over 3%. So wrong. Facts matter.
Tweet media one
4
3
40
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
1 year
Real Retail Sales .. negative! Is a negative print in real retail sales a sign of a strong economy? I say no. 👇
Tweet media one
4
8
40
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
2 years
On the theme that the Fed does not look at its own research. The Empire Survey shows rapid slowing in prices and economic growth. How much longer can Fed officials say with a straight face we see no evidence of a slowdown or disinflation?
Tweet media one
3
14
38
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
1 month
Contrary to the Wall St consensus view my call is still for 3 rate cuts by the Fed in 2024.
10
4
40
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
1 year
CPI and Core CPI … No Acceleration. Fed should pause .. actually they should be cutting.
Tweet media one
5
5
37
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
1 year
So the Bank of Canada is expected to raise rates again. Ivy PMI is at 33.4. Think about that for one minute.
Tweet media one
9
5
40
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
26 days
PPI revisions. Macro data is noisy. Revision for previous period -0.1%. As usual MSM and Wall St will anchor off the noisy headline first print.
Tweet media one
5
9
40
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
9 days
Chicago PMI 35.4 And Wall St can’t delineate between growth generated by 6.5% Fiscal Deficit, and real private sector growth. Fed is late again. Just as they were in 2007.
Tweet media one
2
4
39
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
6 months
#BankofCanada can spin away. The facts clearly point to the largest contributor to inflation is the “Bank of Canada” yes Mortgage Interest Cost. 29.8% of CPI is BoC rate hikes.
Tweet media one
10
15
40
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
8 months
Core CPI in Canada now down to 3.2%… Take out Mortgage Interest Cost ..2.24%.. Mr Macklem there is decisive downward momentum in inflation, you just have to look at the data.
5
9
37
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
8 months
Credit Conditions in Canada at levels seen durning the Recession of 2000 and the GFC. Don’t kid yourself, Canada is heading for a hard landing. The plane is flying into the side of the mountain as we speak. 👇
Tweet media one
2
8
38
@DrJStrategy
James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
1 year
Tweet media one
1
5
36