Speaking of hot takes, a reminder that although
@nathan_h_b
has many trash opinions, he verrrrry rarely (practically never) shares them from this account. Please don't yell at him about the dumb snark you see here.
To complete this triptych of M's first baseman tweets, here is arguably the best picture ever taken of a Seattle Mariner.
One month shy of his 40th birthday, DHL continues to rake in the KBO — he's currently hitting .352/.392/.480. What a guy. ♥️🖕⚾️
Position players age 21 or younger to put up a higher fWAR than Julio (5.3 fWAR) in their first MLB season:
Albert Pujols (7.2 fWAR, age 21)
Ted Williams (7.1 fWAR, age 20)
Frank Robinson (5.8 fWAR, age 20)
Three. Three players in MLB's almost 150-year history. He's so special.
We give the M's FO a lot of grief (and they even deserve it some of the time!), but my goodness baseball is the best and this goofy team can be so, so fun.
#goms
Today, George Kirby makes his MLB debut as a 24 year-old (24 y, 3 m, 4 d).
For perspective, when Félix was that age, he had already started 157 games (65-46 record, 1042.2 IP).
(in no way is this meant to be disparaging of Kirby; it's simply an appreciation tweet for the King)
Something that doesn't /feel/ true, but:
The 2022 Mariners: .230/.315/.390/.704
The 2023 Mariners: .231/.311/.391/.702
This year's team just doesn't have any secret sauce. No juice. A complete lack of good vibes.
Whiffing on Santana is OK.
Whiffing on Bellinger is OK.
Whiffing on Gallo is OK.
Whiffing on J.D. Martinez is OK.
Whiffing on Brantley is OK.
Whiffing on /all/ of these 1-2-win guys signing 1-year deals when SEA needs to add 2 players of this caliber feels increasingly not OK.
If you're going to an M's game this weekend:
1) Cheer extra loud for this lovable, goofy team
2) Try to be extra patient with the ballpark workers. They haven't dealt with crowds of more than ~60% capacity since 2019 — lines might be moving a bit slow
3) Be safe, have fun,
#goms
Kelenic, Toro, Torrens, and Raleigh — each members of the M's Opening Day roster — have combined for 295 PA so far this season (~25% of the team's total PA).
Together, they've hit .142/.210/.265 for a 45 wRC+ (-0.2 fWAR). That is so, so rough. Something has gotta change.
When the Mariners were forced to re-call Raleigh due to injury (Murph ☹️), the team really lucked out in that he took full advantage and blossomed into an impact player. It would be so, so rad if Kelenic did the same with this current opportunity.
It may feel like the M's have a tendency to lay an egg in front of a big home crowd, but holy shit they didn't do that tonight. What a fun, exciting, joyful game - the kind of game that turns a bunch of kiddos in attendance into lifelong baseball fans. Let's do it again tomorrow.
Julio:
'22 fWAR: 5.4
'22 bWAR: 6.2
'23 fWAR: 4.6*
'23 bWAR: 5.2*
*on pace for
If your young star experiencing a "sophomore slump" where he plays more like a ~5-win player instead of a ~6-win player is causing your team to have a long season.... maybe they just aren't that good?
“He hasn’t been terrible by any means, but if this is who he’s going to be this year, if he’s not the dynamic Julio Rodríguez of 2022, the Mariners, I think, are going to be in for a long season," ESPN's Jeff Passan said of the star
#Mariners
outfielder.
The final tally on Seager's "massive" contract extension.
Paid $87.7M by the Mariners
21.1 fWAR ($169M in value)
$81.3M in surplus value
Jerry and Kevin Mather (and anyone else who ever suggested that this guy was overpaid) can h*ck all the way off.
Remember when the Cincy trade was largely framed as the Mariners biting the bullet and taking on Geno's ~$36M guaranteed contract in order to get two years of club control for Winker? Wild times.
•The Mariners pitching staff ranks first in MLB in fWAR.
•Jarred Kelenic has completely broken out, currently performing like a top-10 position player in all of baseball.
•None of the M's starting position players have missed significant time to injury.
And yet...
Top AL rookies (by fWAR)
1) H. Brown (HOU): 1.4 fWAR
2) Y. Cano (BAL): 1.3 fWAR
3) B. Miller (SEA): 1.2 fWAR 😎😎😎
T-4) L. Raley (TBR): 1.1 fWAR
T-4) R. Noda (OAK): 1.1 fWAR
T-4) E. Ruiz (OAK): 1.1 fWAR
T-7) A. Volpe (NYY): 0.9 fWAR
T-7) J. Caballero (SEA): 0.9 fWAR 😎😎😎
What are YOU doing to ensure that Nelson Cruz comes back to the Seattle Mariners?
We here at D&B are standing outside T-Mobile screaming ‘Boomstick’ until they ask us to leave.
If the Mariners go 13-0 against the A's, they only need to play ~.500-ball against everyone else to get to 88 wins (roughly the projected cutoff for a WC spot in the AL). 😎😎😎
Divish is such a good dude and a true pro. He puts up with an unfathomable amount of bullshit on a daily basis, but his words are consistently thoughtful and fair and top-notch. If you're an M's fan who reads his coverage, you're really lucky! Thank you, Ryan.
Kelenic doubles down the right field line in his fourth at-bat but is thrown out trying to stretch it into a triple. He now has a hit in each of his six games with the Rainiers.
Ty France’s last 200 plate appearances:
.313/.363/.478
4.5 BB%
14.4 K%
Finding a home on defense has probably helped, but man, what a pleasant season he is having.
In a do-or-die game with the M's down late, this dude is still out there smiling. He's an undisputed leader and the M's Roberto Clemente nominee this year. And he's still producing at a high level! Seager is exactly the kind of dude you want on your team. It sucks that this is it
Sam Haggerty and Dylan Moore have combined for a 132 wRC+ and 3.2 fWAR in 352 PA this season. Those numbers are bananas. A couple of super utility guys this season.
7 hitters in baseball have a win probability added of >4 this season:
1. Judge: 7.01 (lol)
2. Machado: 4.82
3. Goldschmidt: 4.59
4. Trout: 4.47
5. Betts: 4.39
6. Alvarez: 4.27
7. Julioooo: 4.01
That is one hell of a list to be on. Julio gonna fuck around and get some MVP votes.
"We found ourselves in almost an identical situation last year and had to claw out. This year, we have to do the same."
On today's
#JerryDipotoShow
, the
#Mariners
GM talked about how they can do that, some positive signs, and when to expect Justin Upton.
M's hitters with a better wRC+ than Ty France (130 wRC+ — min 500 PA).
Edgar Martinez: 147 wRC+
Nelson Cruz: 147 wRC+
Ken Phelps: 144 wRC+
Junior: 139 wRC+
A-Rod: 137 wRC+
Pretty, pretty good.
The Seattle Mariners will release a statement tomorrow and if it is anything less than firing Kevin Mather's ass into the sun they have failed once again.
Servais maybe hasn't done the best job with roster optimization/use this season, but for the umpteenth year in a row Stanton+Dipoto built a team largely held together by wet tissue paper. Grumping at Servais is fine, but he seems a heck of a lot better at his job than John/Jerry.
The M's best starting lineup once D-Mo returns proooobably looks like this:
C: Cal
1B: Ty
2B: Caballero
SS: J.P.
3B: Geno
LF: Moore
CF: Juliooo
RF: Kelenic
DH: Teo
If you want to appreciate just how lucky/ridiculous the Mariners were last year:
Mariners pythag W-L% in 2021: 0.468
Mariners pythag W-L% in 2022: 0.472
M's ownership insisting on a below-avg payroll: Bad!
The FO ~whiffing on all 5 of their offseason position player additions so far (combining for 64 wRC+, -0.9 fWAR): Bad!
Stanton+Dipoto+Hollander each deserve your criticism. It's okay to want/expect more from your fav team.
If Jerry were the GM of an NFL or NBA team in a league with a hard salary cap, moves like this would be cool! But when you're in charge of a team that's ~$110M under the CB tax threshold, consistently patting yourself on the back for making marginal improvements..? No thank you.
"This is what we do, the Abraham Toro-type acquisition, and we have done quite well with it,"
#Mariners
GM Jerry Dipoto said this week.
But should that always be the M.O. for how Seattle builds?
(By
@shannondrayer
)
If the Mariners aren't going to add an impact bat before the deadline (which they should still do!), can they at least promise to give any and all of Toro's remaining PA this season to Moore and/or Haggerty? That could provide a not insignificant boost down the stretch.
In the 2nd half of the season:
-The M's have gone 28-20
-J.P./Ty/Mitch/Santana/Winker have combined to hit .203/.293/.336, 86 wRC+ (787 PA) and put up 0 fWAR
It's incredible that SEA has kept winning despite replacement-level play from ~half their lineup. ♥️ quality pitching.
How many position players on the M's current 26-man roster are better than Dylan Moore? Five? Maybe six? Certainly not nine!
I know these tweets sound like a broken record, but Moore should be getting ~regular starts for this team right now.
The idea that a team can "overpay" for a player in a league without a salary cap is untrue and reinforces a false narrative that carries water for billionaire owners. You do players (and your fellow fans!) a disservice when you use this framework to talk about MLB.
plz stop
Not having Flexen go out there and soak up 5 innings today is so weird. If you're going to have an ostensible long reliever taking up a spot on your 26-man roster, you should /probably/ actually use him as a long man.
Julio '22 ZiPS projections: .282/.341/.465, 5.0 fWAR/600
Julio '22 actual numbers: .284/.345/.509, 5.7 fWAR/600
Imagine being 21 years old and having those ABSURDLY HIGH expectations heaped on your shoulders... but then just saying fuck it and doing even more. What a dude.
"We're gonna have all of you guys in our heart, and we're gonna give our best for this city and every single one of you guys."
@JRODshow44
|
#SeaUsRise
In addition to being a Gold Glover, All Star, team leader, and all-around great player, Seager also led the AL in PA over the past decade. The model of consistency, and exactly the type of dude you want on your team. M's fans have been so, so lucky. Thank you, Kyle.
If Santiago is innocent, the Mariners should get to play their next ten games with 27 players, with the 27th player being one player the M's have selected from the opposing team. Manfred will also have to run the
@MLB
account during those 10 games.
Please make us commissioner.
Gott's -0.83 WPA was the worst among M's relievers (and one of the worst in all of baseball). Losing him is whatever, but making moves in July to shed salary during a Win It All! season sure doesn't seem great.
Only one other Mariners team was shut out five times in the first 30 games of a season — the 1978 squad, which went 56-104 on the year (the worst season in M's history).
A rule of thumb is that starting-quality MLB players put up >2 WAR in a season. Here are all the M's on pace for that in '22 (with their current fWAR).
1. Julio: 2.8 fWAR
2. Suárez: 2.2
3: France: 2.0
4. Crawford: 1.7
5. Gilbert: 1.7
6. Raleigh: 1.5
7. Ray: 1.4
8. Moore: 1.2
This has been said in many other places by much smarter people, but it bears repeating: The Mariners should NOT be waiting to add impact players until the deadline. Do it yesterday.
The Mariners have had a fun start and just sent their best LF to the minors for no real baseball reason in case you were wondering why people who have been fans of this team for awhile grow a touch jaded.
It doesn't /really/ matter, but:
Toro before demotion: .180/.239/.322, 61 wRC+ (285 PA)
Toro since being recalled: .154/.175/.256, 21 wRC+ (40 PA)
Starting him over Moore (or even Haggerty, who has been in a slump) feels like such a wonky choice.