1/3
#SalmanRushdie
in the
#SatanicVerses
. This passage has always stirred my heart:
“What kind of idea are you? Are you the kind that compromises, does deals, accomodates itself to society, aims to find a niche, to survive;
1/ Alleged coup in D.R.
#Congo
. Authorities say they neutralised it fast. Diplomatic sources tell me it is linked to a 41 year old man called Christian Malanga. His name first came up in an alleged assassination attempt targeting former president Joseph Kabila. 🧵
The tragic events in
#Palma
,
#CaboDelgado
#Mozambique
, over the last few days have major implications for peace and security on the Swahili coast of East
#Africa
. Herewith some thoughts in a mega thread -->
Today
#Ethiopia
is entering civil war territory as federal troops deploy to take on
#Tigray
(TPLF) forces after what Addis said was an attack by the northern region against a federal military base. This is a disaster for the region, for Africa, for the world. Thread -->
1/ The plot thickens in the attempted coup in DR
#Congo
. Christian Malanga, the deceased coup leader, had previously set up mining companies in
#Mozambique
with at least one of the Americans now arrested as part of the coup attempt.
1/ Post-
#Brexit
, a trade partner sought by the
#UK
government is the
#UnitedArabEmirates
(UAE). It has pledged billions of £ in investment into UK and wants to have ownership in UK telecoms, media and nuclear. But UAE backing of genocide in
#Sudan
raises questions in
#London
.🧵
1/
#Kenya
’s intervention in the D.R.
#Congo
risks backfiring. The local Congolese population are rioting against insecurity particularly the fact that the
#M23
rebels keep expanding despite Kenya’s forces who are deployed but who are not fighting them.
We know the world's eyes are on the
#USElections
right now, but Ethiopia is too big to fail. The country's international partners need to step in now and push for de-escalation. The consequences will be more regional turmoil, more terrorism, more mass human displacement.
The UAE calls out one genocide in
#Palestine
while backing another one in
#Darfur
. This is about as grubby as international diplomacy gets. Let’s be clear, nobody is interested in the lives of civilians. It’s all about self serving interests.
BREAKING: UAE OFFICIAL STATEMENT
ON THE ICJ RULING
“The UAE welcomes the decision of the International Court of Justice to impose additional temporary measures on Israel, demanding that it immediately stop the attack on Rafah
The UAE stresses the need to ensure that
New
@CrisisGroup
briefing on
#Ethiopia
and
#Tigray
. We are advocating Ababa Ababa ensure that Eritrean and Amhara regional forces that participated in the intervention withdraw. It also should urgently allow aid to reach all Tigrayans who need it.
Now the
@Telegraph
is running a story saying that DR
#Congo
's authorities have arrested a
#UK
national who was involved in the botched coup plot in Kinshasa. I get the feeling we are in for a long and twisted story here. See my previous tweets on the events of the last few days.
While Mozambique and partners develop a security response and debate how they might retake the ports of Palma and Mocimboa da Praia, they may need to consider grass roots grievances, and how addressing them can incentivise insurgents to lay down arms and win back the population.
1/2 An important development for
#Mozambique
watchers. Lloyds of London now says these coastal waters off the coast of Cabo Delgado province and
#Tanzania
are now considered a danger zone and all vessel owners need to inform insurance companies if their boats pass through:
#Congo
’s
#Ituri
province is sliding towards deadlier conflict amid gruesome reports of massacres of civilians in the countryside. This morning the
#codeco
militia, mainly ethnic Lendus, have surrounded the prison in the provincial capital Bunia. thread —>
The U.S. has designated two armed groups in the
#DRC
and in
#Mozambique
as terrorist organisations, claiming they are affiliated with
#IslamicState
, creating potential legal peril for peacemakers who may deal with them.
@CrisisGroup
analyse implications.
2/ Kabila's former head of military intel, General Delphin Kahimbi (now dead) told me (when I was a UN political officer) in Kinshasa in January 2018 that he was tracking Malamba who he described as a former US military officer of Congolese origin, a native of Kwilu province.
Coming back to other forms of international connections, the big one everyone is talking about is
#ISIS
. We published this explainer on how the connection between Mozambique's Al-Shabaab is weak, but that does not mean it is not trying to get in there.
Here is my take on
#Kenya
’s push for the establishment of a joint force to be deployed in
#Congo
, a statement I read out to the
#UnitedNations
security council, in an open session on 27 April.
3/ According to my notes, Kahimbi said that he had arrested Congolese conspirators in Kinshasa who were working for Malanga back in 2018. He said that Malanga had been in Kinshasa during this period, moving around in a UN decommissioned vehicle, but he escaped interdiction.
1/9 Here is a follow up briefing to the
@Crisisgroup
June 2021 report on the insurgency in
#Mozambique
's
#CaboDelgado
province. In this update, we looked at the impact of foreign troop deployments on the Islamist "al-Shabab" insurgency. See today's brief:
If you read one
@CrisisGroup
report on the
#Sahel
, it is this.
#France
's efforts to defeat Islamist militancy are in trouble. The jihadist threat is growing. Paris and partners should pivot from military approach and support efforts to improve governance
1/ The
#UK
mission to the
#UnitedNations
says it will “hold accountable” those perpetrating atrocities in
#Darfur
,
#Sudan
. But what will it say about
#London
’s ally the United Arab Emirates (UAE) which UN investigators believe is arming forces committing atrocities in Darfur. 🧵
The Security Council will meet tomorrow on Sudan.
We are concerned by the military build up outside El Fasher, Darfur, which is on the brink of a man-made catastrophe.
The UK will hold those responsible for violence against civilians to account.
War now in
#Mogadishu
. The last decade saw a scramble for power and influence in
#Somalia
by all kinds of foreign powers who lavished guns and money on their Somali political allies. It turned out to be a race to the bottom. Now everybody loses. 1/2
8/ The putschists appeared to be burnishing the flag of
#Zaire
, which Kabila's dad renamed DRCongo. Worth noting that Kahimbi had told me in 2018 that Malanga and Tshibangu were associating with former members of Mobutu's army from the Equateur region who wanted to oust Kabila.
4/ Kahimbi alleged that Malamba had arrived in Kinshasa by securing a place on a UN aircraft from Entebbe which then flew to Kinshasa. He then said that a former Congolese governor (I will not name him) had paid Malamba $750,000 to kill Kabila. He gave no proof.
If you peer a bit closer, you will see that the insurgency did not come from nowhere. In fact it has grown out of historical factors, out of grass roots grievances, and has developed partially along ethnic lines before becoming the monster it is today.
5/ Kahimbi also said that Malamba had been working alongside a former rebel called John Tshibangu, whom I met in Nairobi, Kenya, before he launched a failed rebellion in late 2017. Tshibangu had been arrested in Tanzania in January 2018, Kahimbi was the architect of his arrest.
What next for
#Wagner
and
#Russia
’s standing in Africa after
#Prigozhin
’s death? What are implications for the West? And for Africans? I trace the rise of the mercenary group and hazard some basic scenarios for the future in this Guardian Op-Ed.
1/ I would like to say something about my colleague Michael Kovrig who was detained by Chinese authorities on 10 December 2018 and is still a political prisoner. His incarceration took place a few months before I joined
@CrisisGroup
. I have never met Michael. So why do I care?
The war could also suck in
#Sudan
, already teetering under its own fragile transition, with different Sudanese constituencies having close links to Addis Ababa, Mekelle (the Tigray capital) and Asmara.
6/ During the 1998 - 2003 war in Congo Tshibangu was part of rebellions backed by Congo's eastern neighbours. He then joined Kabila's army before defecting in 2010. He then kept close to
#M23
rebels. After Kabila left, Tshisekedi released Tshibangu and made him an army commander.
This is an insurgency that has been snowballing since October 2017. It started attacking in the form of small groups of young men, brandishing mainly blunt weapons, and attacking remote security posts. It has evidently now grown into something much more serious.
2/ Despite being a
@UN
Security Council member during 2022 - 2023, the
#UAE
has played a major role in the destruction of Sudan, backing a ruthless paramilitary group that had once committed genocide in
#Darfur
and is again perpetrating mass atrocities.
9/ Under the surface there must be a whole load of stuff going on. At the time Kahimbi fingered Malanga in 2018, I was skeptical. It does seem Malanga is implicated today, but it is really not clear at all who is really behind this alleged coup.
9/ Watch this space. My guess is this may lead to the hardening of politics in Congo and perhaps even a shift in the country’s geopolitical alliances among international partners, if that is not already the case.
🎧 NEW EPISODE | Hold Your Fire!
This week,
@atwoodr
and guest co-host
@EroComfort
talk to
@DinoMahtani
about the violence in
#Mozambique
’s northern Cabo Delgado region, Maputo’s response and prospects for regional intervention.
Our current
@CrisisGroup
CEO
@Rob_Malley
to become
#Iran
envoy for
#PresidentBiden
. A testament not only to his own grasp of this important country, but also to the idea that people who know their stuff should be called upon to serve and make a difference.
Western interventionist models of state building have been bankrupted by the idea that you can throw guns and money at client regimes, and turn a blind eye to systems of governance. Around we go in concentric circles of failure, stuck between forever wars and systemic collapses.
Recently the U.S. sanctioned the group and called it an affiliate of
#IslamicState
. By doing so, the group has now been elevated into a box where policy solutions designed to deal with this problem will now be partially framed or qualified by that designation.
1/ A thread with links to reports and other media relating to a panel hosted today by
@CrisisGroup
and the
@mailandguardian
, where we will be discussing how to prevent a new jihadist front in
#Mozambique
.
When: today at 15.00 CEST/SAST
Register
The biggest illicit trade is of course drugs. Lots of heroin and amphetamine from Afghanistan comes down to the Makran coast in Iran and Pakistan, and then is transported to the East Africa or Swahili coast seaboard, otherwise known as the "heroin coast".
Many Ethiopians on all sides hoped it would never get to this, although it has been like watching a train crash in slow motion for months. At each step of the way it has been possible for each side to de-escalate but everyone has chosen to press ahead with hardline positions.
What was needed for some time was a national dialogue to stop this critical country in the Horn of Africa unraveling. Instead what we have seen is a Nobel Prize winner continuing to take hardline positions with the TPLF, instead of using his position of leadership to de-escalate.
7/ Rumours have started circulating in recent weeks that Tshibangu was once again considering defecting, but there is no real evidence of this. Tshibangu is actually from Kasai, the same region as President Tshisekedi, but he has a strong political network in the rebel torn east.
Abiy's international partners from the US, EU, UN, AU need to impress upon him that he needs to de-escalate things and stop Ethiopia from heading into a civil war that could destroy the country and blow up the Horn of Africa.
3/ The other shareholder in the Mozambican companies is a guy called Cole Patrick Ducey, but I am not sure yet whether he is the other guy arrested in Congo alongside Zalman-Polun. If we understand their interests in Mozambique, we might start to know more.
1/4 When you look at security crises now exploited by
#IslamicState
in
#Africa
, in the background there has often lurked a notable financial scandal like the “tuna bond” scandal in
#Mozambique
. Or corruption over mining deals in
#DRCongo
. Or defence spending corruption in
#Niger
.
In addition Ethiopia is supposed to be one of the key troop contributors for the African Union mission
@amisomsomalia
, if it is distracted by war at home, it may take its eyes off operations against
#AlShabaab
As you can see, this situation is a lot more complex than the idea of just calling these guys "Islamists", or "jihadis", or even Islamic State to say the least. That does not mean however that there is not an internationalist dimension to this. There is.
This is apparently a fighter jet from
#Congo
, almost nailed by a missile that appears to come from
#Rwanda
, according to ground sources in Goma where this footage was taken today I am reliably told. Very alarming development.
2/ One of the arrested American guys Benjamin Reuben Zalman-Polun, from Maryland, whose passport has been pasted all over X and which I attach below, set up a number at least three companies in Mozambique in 2022, all of which are mining or related companies.
3/ While doing this the UAE has been hoovering up massive amounts of gold from conflicted areas in Sudan. Some of this gold is also ending up in Russian coffers, where it is used to mitigate the effect of sanctions on
#Moscow
for its war in
#Ukraine
.
See
I heard this week that
#EuropeanUnion
has been discussing extending the geographical scope of Operation Atalanta, the former piracy force to extend its zone of operation down into the Mozambican channel, but that questions over finances have led this to a dead end for now.
The insurgents, known by locals as "Al-Shabaab" (or "the youth") are a mixed bunch, and include foreigners, mainly Tanzanians, but you can see domestic constituencies. Many are coastal Mwani youth, or Makwa men, from the west and southern hinterlands of Cabo Delgado.
6/ Among the putschists are American lads with the kind of whiny accents you might find in the queue of a Bubble Tea shop in Brooklyn, not on a battlefield. One of them is reportedly a cannabis entrepreneur. Makes one wonder about the planning of all this. 🤷🏽♂️
Moreover we have recently seen a return to the repressive practices which Ethiopia was supposed to have abandoned under Abiy. Closure of political space in Oromia, intimidation by security forces in Southern Nations, legal cases against political enemies elsewhere.
#Somalia
's government has requested the termination of the
@UN
peace operation there. This follows recent closures of UN missions in
#Mali
and
#Sudan
and the start of a UN draw down in
#Congo
. This is amid new scrambles for influence and resources, and wars across
#Africa
.
Among them include petty traders, small time smugglers, former fishermen and farm boys. There are also some miners who were thrown out of ruby mines in the west of the province in 2017.
1/ Update on the DR
#Congo
attempted coup. Benjamin Reuben Zalman-Polun, one of the Americans arrested in today's drama in Kinshasa pleaded guilty in 2014 for dealing up to 50kg of marijuana, and entered into a cooperation agreement with US justice authorities.
7/ This will undoubtedly leave the US embassy in Kinshasa in a difficult position to explain who on earth these lads are, who are being called “mercenaries” now. Western diplomats in Kinshasa are poo-pooing the idea this was an American-backed plot.
By and large though, you can see that there are some ethno-political cleavages there. That is not to suggest this is an ethnic conflict pitting the Mwani and Makwa against the Makonde, however. To portray it that way is a gross oversimplification.
In addition, local "Al-Shabaab" boys were also consuming East African Swahili propaganda content of the late Kenyan radical Aboud Rogo, whose connections to Al Qaeda in East Africa and to the Al-Shabaab group of Somalia are well known.
Amid these centrifugal forces, Abiy took a big gamble by trying to absorb the ruling coalition, made up of parties from all these regions, into a single party under his control. All joined, except the TPLF, which once was at the helm of that ruling coalition and now embittered.
These fishermen smugglers are also sometimes the guys trafficking Somalis, East Africans and Mozambicans up and down the Swahili coast. So there is a whole policy issue here about what to do about all this illicit traffic on the seas in a way that doesn't kill off livelihoods.
Upon
#SouthSudan
’s independence, many hoped its oil wealth would build the state and lift citizens out of poverty. Instead, politicians have used the money for patronage or just stolen it, feeding internal conflict. Accountability is badly needed.
8/ This is all critical to UK foreign policy. The UAE is, as
@TheEconomist
says, using wealth to buy influence. The Sudan spat raises a question whether UK’s political system is being hacked by the UAE. What will prevail? Ethical policy or UAE's cash?
Things are getting really serious in
#Ethiopia
. Prime Minister
#AbiyAhmed
needs to bring everyone in the tent to calm things down even those who he considers adversaries. He stands a better chance of cooling things by doing this, not throwing them in jail.
Just to correct a typo above. When I say that the largest component of insurgents are Tanzanians, I mean the largest component of foreigners are Tanzanians. The biggest cohort of fighters are Mozambicans. Thanks
@alanboswell
for flagging up.
The largest components of the insurgents are Tanzanians. These include a number of former traders and miners who were the low level business partners of many of the petty traders I described above. Some also come from Rogo influenced radical madrassas in Tanzania.
Commenting today in
@nytimes
on the situation in
#Mozambique
. Stay tuned for a
@CrisisGroup
analysis this week on U.S. sanctions against the country's "Al-Shabaab" jihadist group and then a report on the crisis in the northern province of
#CaboDelgado
.
Great hopes awaited Ethiopia when prime minister
#AbiyAhmed
took office in 2018. He took credit for continuing the policy of releasing political prisoners, and forging a peace deal with
#Eritrea
, winning the
#NobelPeacePrize
@NobelPrize
as a result.
At the same time, you also had a few associates of Somali pirates at the time, sitting in the Cabo Delgado port of Mocimboa da Praia (now out of government control) storing fuel drums and enjoying a bit of R and R. So this was a febrile environment for all kinds of illicit trade.
Most of those involved on the Africa side of the trade are powerful elites and those who have the money and privilege to get in the mix of this lucrative trade. So we are not talking about "jihadists" who are controlling the trade.
While living peacefully in Mozambique, Wahhabis however introduced forms of scripture and ideology that can be often be misunderstood by young minds that do not have the literacy to engage with the scriptures appropriately.
1/ Some news on the
#IslamicState
affiliated Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) in the
#Congo
:
#Uganda
's military has struck the armed group hard this month, according to sources inside the group and Congolese and Ugandan military intelligence sources.
5/ CCB Mining Solutions, one of the companies registered by the trio has as one of its management representatives André Timana, head of ABT Servicos. which manufactures number plates and security systems for cars in Maputo.
Neighbouring
#Eritrea
, run by the less than democratic President Issayas Afwerki who is close to Abiy, could be drawn into conflict with the TPLF, which considers him a foe. The TPLF took Ethiopia into war with Eritrea in 1998 to 2000 and both sides have hated each other since.
12/ As a proud Brit, and one raised in Africa, I wonder what kind of country we are turning into. Needless to say, UAE deny all allegations. Many British politicians also meanwhile seem wedded to the idea that Brexit was a great idea.
There are even one or two Makonde, which is unusual, because the Makonde are mostly Christians, and the ethnic group of President Filipe Nyusi, and many of the older generation of anti-colonial war liberation heroes who went on to dominate business and politics in Cabo Delgado.
2/ The putschists manage to get inside the Palais de la Nation complex, the presidential grounds, with minimal resistance. They have time to take videos and do their propaganda while the president is whisked to safety.
Many had probably picked up some elements of Qoranic teaching at Wahhabi mosques and madrassas that had started proliferating in Northern Mozambique from the 1990s onwards.
4/ In previous reporting by Africa Intelligence, Ducey and Zalman-Polun are are cited as being in the cannabis and e-cigarette industry. Malanga was cited as having links to the Congolese artisanal gold sector.
4/ The gold laundromat stretches beyond Sudan. Gold smuggled from war-torn
#Mali
,
#BurkinaFaso
and
#Niger
, where jihadists have captured some of the gold supply chain and where Russia has made alliances with governments, ends up in UAE. See UN report:
Oromia has an armed rebellion ongoing. Amhara region has been in turmoil since June 2019 when its regional leader was gunned down. Hardliners there have also been itching for a fight with Tigray over disputed lands. Many of the Southern Nations are also stirring for autonomy.
4/ Tensions are up between Congo’s government and Kenya. Kinshasa sees the lack of action against the M23 as soft peddling on Rwanda who it says backs the rebels. Congo and Rwanda are close to war. Tensions are also brewing between Rwanda and Uganda, who fights the ADF in Congo.
But even as political freedoms were granted, there did not seem to be a strategy to manage rowdy demands of a multi-ethnic federation, whose regions have been at odds with each other, or the federal government, or both. War with the TPLF is now part of a multidimensional crisis.
The
#COVID19
pandemic made things more complicated, leading to Ethiopia postponing elections, and foisting something of a constitutional crisis on the country. Tigray refused to go along with this, and held its own elections. Then came fiscal sanctions from Addis. And now war.
So taking on the appearance of jihadis, with their rudimentary, warped and mixed understanding of Islam, the insurgents started challenging local religious and community leaders, including local imams supported by the Islamic Council of Mozambique itself. The rest is history.
1/ US
@StateDept
has now sanctioned a bunch of people in
#SouthAfrica
who are accused of being financial facilitators for
#IslamicState
, and who are allegedly also connected to the violence in northern
#Mozambique
.
5/ It doesn’t stop there. Gold from war torn
#Congo
is piped to the UAE. Even
#Venezuela
gold transits Mali’s capital
#Bamako
and then to the UAE. The flight path from Venezuela to the
#Sahel
mimics the cocaine trafficking route between the two locations.