Davide Oneglia @DavideOneglia Twitter profile

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Davide Oneglia

11 months

Confused about Euro Area's long-term macro? Overwhelmed by negative consensus and headlines? Well, it's time to consider the long-term bull case for Europe. Chart-heavy 🧵 1/

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

2 months

EU “deindustrialization” makes headlines. High energy costs, China’s rivalry and rising protectionism are strong headwinds. But structural factors cannot fully explain the ongoing industrial recession. What about ECB-induced domestic demand suppression and housing collapse? 1/

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

2 years

Italian politics pulls the rug under the ECB. Draghi is expected to resign tomorrow. The "anti-fragmentation" tool was always going to stand on shaky foundation and relatively quiet Italian politics was a prerequisite for it to work. Some market panic seems in order

Alessandro Speciale

@aspeciale

2 years

After 13 hours of waiting, the deed is done 👇 #Italy ’s Five Star Movement refuses to back Mario #Draghi ’s government in a confidence vote Thursday, raising the prospect of a chaotic crisis in the middle of a war and of an energy crisis @chiaraalbanese 1/

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

5 years

Where's the Italian #austerity so many people rant on about?? So much for #Conte 's nonsense about #Italy 's politics being "enslaved by finance"?? Spesa corrente al netto degli interessi *in livelli* non scende mai! Il grafico in %PIL l'ho messo solo per ridere piu' forte 1/2

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

1 month

EU productivity “doom & gloom” excite pundits. ECB supply pessimists worry about structural deterioration. But what if recent soggy productivity is telling us more about EU cyclical demand stagnation than anything else? What if overly tight policy is the main drag now? 1/

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

2 months

But that's a policy “short-circuit”! Ironically, the ECB ends up exacerbating EU “deindustrialization” by hindering supply repair. At this stage, overly tight policy undermines an EA industry rebound and worsens the growth-inflation trade-off. 5/

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

2 months

But in the end, amid all EU policy defeatism (don't get me started on fiscal!) and talks of imminent industrial desertification, it's crucial to give back to demand factors the place they deserve. Parts of the supply side can only rebuild if demand is there to lead the way. END

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

2 months

The worst part of this is that ECB officials embraced structural “deindustrialization” (overlooking monetary policy and demand effects) to justify their “supply pessimism”: supply damage deemed permanent requires policy to further suppress aggregate demand to lower inflation 4/

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

5 years

Questa invece è la crescita cumulata dei principali componenti della spesa corrente del governo centrale al netto degli interessi... Mannaggia! ma tutto questo #neoliberismo non ci farà mica male?!

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

2 months

First, the fall in German and EA intermediate goods orders (most relevant for energy-intensive output), has been steeper than for other foreign orders. And it has continued despite the drop in energy/input costs, and easing supply bottlenecks. Second, EA housing collapsed. 2/

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

2 months

What about the adage “housing is the business cycle”? Unlike for manufacturing, there's no doubt that surging interest rates are the main driver of EU's housing crisis. And energy-intensive products (ceramics, glassware, metals, rubber, plastics...) are key building materials 3/

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

2 months

Moreover, Central Europe (CE) is emerging as relative winner, eroding German and EA market shares. Unlike in the EA, CE manufacturing has been booming. Energy cost differentials cannot explain this, but overall cost delta including labor and German-CE industry integration can 7/

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

1 year

With the bank turmoil of the past weeks investors have reawakened to credit risk. So far, banks’ exposure to Commercial Real Estate (CRE) has attracted most of the attention. But CRE is just one example of rate-sensitive, illiquid, opaque asset class. Little thread 1/

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

2 months

All this is not to downplay structural factors. Retail industrial energy prices lag spot prices and remain above pre-shock averages, but strong import substitution has dissipated. Surely, China’s turn to industrial rival compounds its own weaker demand for EA goods 6/

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

1 year

Thanks for sharing my work, Alf!🙂 That said, to give the full context of my current view, I also wrote this:

Alf

@MacroAlf

1 year

Commercial real estate prices in Europe are taking a serious bath: ~20% down in the last 12 month alone! Banks in the Nordics but also in Spain, France, NL and Germany are quite exposed to the sector. Central Banks can backstop liquidity issues, but can't do much about this

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

11 months

In sum, beyond a cyclical slowdown, the glass is half full for the EA economy and asset prices. Yield normalization, higher geopolitical risk in China and EMs and the new policy mix warrant a rebalancing in long-term asset allocation towards EA assets. END

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

11 months

Second, more active fiscal policy targeting productive investment areas is a seachange compared to pre-Covid decade-long public and private capex dearth 9/

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

11 months

Finally, higher rates increase the opportunity cost of ‘zombie lending’, reducing capital misallocation. Zombie firms have been a large source of aggregate productivity underperformance on the EA, especially vs the US 12/

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

11 months

No doubt, the old export-led EA growth model is dead. The EA is losing competitiveness. First, China is turning from key export market into industrial rival. A big problem for overexposed EA economies and firms 2/

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

11 months

Fourth, a high-pressure economy creates a macro environment conducive to higher productivity. In a nutshell, scarce labour pushes firms to become more efficient, while higher wages are an incentive for worker performance 11/

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

11 months

But crucially the end of the old EA/German export-led model based on domestic demand compression is good news! In fact, the big shift in EA policy mix since Covid is underappreciated, and it can even revive productivity 8/

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

11 months

China’s competitiveness gains in those very markets so far dominated by the EA have become a top policy objective (see “dual circulation” and “Made in China 2025”). The Green Transition has accelerated these developments 3/

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

11 months

First, the robust recovery of labor markets from the pandemic and the prospect of more frequent labor supply shortages are likely to push up average wage growth even after the current phase of inflation. This would provide a more solid backdrop for real incomes and consumption 9/

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

11 months

That said, current market narratives about EA long-term growth seem way too pessimistic. For starters, the EA is going to benefit from some “friendshoring” 7/

Demand for Europe factory space rises 29% amid ‘nearshoring’ rush

Manufacturers look to reduce dependence on China over geopolitical and supply chain concerns

www.ft.com

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

11 months

Chinese cars are taking over the global export car market and gaining market share domestically at the expenses of EA incumbents such as Volkswagen 4/

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

11 months

Ofc, there are risks: EU fiscal rules will improve vs pre-Covid, but they may still be too rigid in the long term; EA gov’ts have poor track record in spending structural funds; and unproductive but necessary spending (eg. military and pension expenditure) will grow, too 13/

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

5 years

This (quite long) thread is #my2cents on the output gap campaign #CANOO started by @RobinBrooksIIF and supported, among many others, by @alan_tooze and @MESandbu . Pls read it till the end. I don't want to be polemic. I'm just looking for answers (1/x)

Robin Brooks

@robin_j_brooks

5 years

Campaign against Nonsense Output Gaps (CANOO): all our #CANOO pieces are now freely available, thanks to @MESandbu for the push! 1/ #CANOO overview: 2/ IMF, EC, OECD vs IIF gaps: 3/ Phillips curves & NAIRU:

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

4 years

This is it. In the short term there's no other viable approach and no stronger balance sheet than that of the sovereign. If the crisis extends, though, we need a credible lender of last resort for the EA to coordinate with. #ECB #Lagarde #COVID ー19 #coronavirus

*Walter Bloomberg

@DeItaone

4 years

FRENCH FINANCE MINISTER SAYS WILL BE COMPLETELY BEHIND COMPANIES TO GET THROUGH CORONAVIRUS, IT WILL COST TENS OF BILLIONS OF EUROS

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

5 months

Indeed -- also surprising how hawks mistrusted #ECB forecasts as inflation was rising, but liked them when they pointed to slow disinflation...🤔🤣 [snippet from last Thursday's note]

Dario Perkins

@darioperkins

5 months

There is nothing remarkable about euro area inflation evaporating. The remarkable thing is how it stayed so high for so long

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

1 month

@TS_Lombard P.S. all is not lost. At least someone at the ECB is paying attention: ”If we hold them [high interest rates] for too long, we might put the recovery at risk and delay the associated cyclical rebound in productivity growth” (Piero Cipollone, 27 March)

The confidence to act: monetary policy and the role of wages during the disinflation process

www.ecb.europa.eu

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

11 months

EA’s dependency on raw materials for clean tech puts the bloc at a structural disadvantage vs China. While a further widening in energy costs across the Atlantic and easy-to-access IRA tax credits increase incentives for firms to shift new capex overseas 5/

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

1 month

Since 2022, the profit-led hiring boom met energy crisis and policy tightening, that stalled growth. Covid shortages worsened labour hoarding, also encouraged by falling real cost of labour relative to capital as ECB hiked. Output per hour worked dropped… 3/

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

2 months

We did it @patrick_saner ! #FOGF deserves to go viral! 🚀🔥🤣 @darioperkins <are you not entertained? GIF> 🤣 cc: @TS_Lombard

Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

2 months

The irresistible temptation to steal this as the title of my ECB update today 🤣 Very well done, Patrick!

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

2 months

Credits for charts in the last tweet to @freyabeamish ;) cc: @TS_Lombard

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

11 months

Finally, adverse demographics is starting to bite and cliff effects from the baby boomers retiring are now firmly within standard investment horizons 6/

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

4 years

Hahaha love #WhateverTheF ! But on substance: 1) this is an outrageous mistake from Lagarde and a stain on her already not immaculate track record; but 2) it will be rectified soon, and 3) EU is more politically united than when Merkel & Sarko smiled at each other in pressers...

Frederik Ducrozet

@fwred

4 years

Biggest one-day jump in the 10Y Italian BTP yield *ever*. From a very low level, I know, but for those who survived 2011, it does mean something. #WhateverTheF

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

1 month

Composition issues are key too. Labour hoarding is strongest in construction, while post-Covid public sector hiring sapped average hours worked (AHW). At country level, 🇫🇷 apprenticeships explain ~50% of productivity fall by late 2022. EU productivity is better than it looks. 4/

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

2 years

A crucial policy question atm: are higher inflation expectations now accelerating the inflation process or is that all only in the minds of central bankers?

Dario Perkins

@darioperkins

2 years

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

9 days

Currently on hols in 🇨🇵 , just stopped by at Saint Rémy de Provence to pay homage to the patron and father of all macro forecasters 🔮🤣🙏🏻 #Nostradamus #macroforecasterlife

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

1 month

Just as in the EA “deindustrialization” debate, the ECB overlooks the outsized impact of its own domestic demand suppression on productivity measures amid the post-Covid job market adjustment. This further undermines a productivity revival. 2/

Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

2 months

EU “deindustrialization” makes headlines. High energy costs, China’s rivalry and rising protectionism are strong headwinds. But structural factors cannot fully explain the ongoing industrial recession. What about ECB-induced domestic demand suppression and housing collapse? 1/

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

24 days

China capital outflows and CNY (RMB) weakness are in the news again. In early February I wrote about the structural forces that will continue to drive medium-term capital outflows and CNY weakness. Here are a few key points 1/

PiQ

@PiQSuite

27 days

🇨🇳 China - Foreign direct investment into China collapsed by 26.1% y/y in January to March 2024 highlighting the challenges it faces competing for funds with cheaper rivals in a sluggish global growth environment. The debate over China’s currency policies is to some extent

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

5 years

No German recession in Q3! OK, so what? To anyone interested in German (and EU) *long-run* growth the important question is: can Germany ride the wave of the next technology revolution? Required reading by @johnauthers : Follows chart-heavy thread 1/n

Germany's Inconvenient Truth? It's Too Complicated

The country’s economic woes are a symptom of a more deep-rooted growth problem, Harvard research shows.

www.bloomberg.com

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

1 year

It feels so good to be on the same page with the one and only Twitter banking guru! 😌 (snippet from my note earlier today)

JohannesBorgen

@jeuasommenulle

1 year

B.Asset quality: main area of concern is US CRE book. It’s 17bn, well flagged with avg 60% LTV, diversified. SSM imposed addt’l cap requirements recently to mitigate risk. There’s also the lev lending book ofc.

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

6 years

#Italy risks regressing fast. Weak growth is a hard problem to solve, but nothing is more crucial to prosperity than preserving the #ruleoflaw

C.A. Carnevale-Maffè

@carloalberto

6 years

Tutti a chiedersi del potenziale danno in capo ad Atlantia, che è ancora da accertare. Nessuno a evidenziare il danno immediato, reale e irreversibile alla credibilità delle istituzioni repubblicane generato da processi sommari e arbitrari, in spregio alla legge e alla giustizia.

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

17 days

Reaccelerating *dis*inflation momentum in Euro Area. I'm a broken record, but EA inflation and ECB policy have scope to diverge from the US for a bit this year.

Claus Vistesen

@ClausVistesen

17 days

Services selling price expectations breaking lower, reversing the leap at the start of the year.

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

10 months

Yesterday Nagel, today Knot. The tone of #ECB hawks is changing. Don't expect the hawkish rhetoric to disappear completely yet, but what matters now is restrictive rates' persistency and excess liquidity reduction - not a higher terminal rate.

Bloomberg Economics

@economics

10 months

ECB Governing Council member Klaas Knot says monetary tightening beyond next week's meeting is "at most a possibility, but by no means a certainty"

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

5 years

@OGiannino "Dopo 5 anni..." è sempre sui tempi dilatati di una giustizia da terzo mondo che gli oppressori e i soverchiatori di ogni risma fanno affidamento nel nostro Paese. La libertà e la dignità di un individuo sono strutturalmente a rischio in Italia

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

1 year

But beyond CRE risk, which is now well monitored, a decade of ZIRP has forced investors, especially nonbanks, to buy riskier, hard to mark-to-market, illiquid assets. Take insurers, for example. 4/

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

1 month

It’s hard to quantify the impact of such factors on productivity, but it’s likely much smaller than that of output compression. And, in any event, it cannot justify keeping ECB rates ~200bps above any reasonable estimate of nominal r* with continued disinflation. 6/

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

11 months

Third, new digital technology such as cheap, open-source AI increase leapfrogging potential for productivity laggards. The inability to embrace the computer revolution has been a key factor constraining the productivity of EA firms for decades. This can change 10/

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

1 year

In EU, banks’ credit risk via CRE concentrates in the Nordics and Central Europe. Sweden tops the table, but, in the EZ, fixed-rate mortgages make Germany, the Netherlands and France less exposed (although more exposed in terms of loan profitability!) than Austria and Finland 2/

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

3 years

The surge in no. of firms citing 'equipment' as a factor limiting production in EZ is wild, but unlike in normal times, this reflects input shortages rather than greater capex needs. EU surveys don't separate input shortages, but a similar @InseeFr survey does. 1/2

George Pearkes

@pearkes

3 years

I spend all day looking at econ data and making charts and this is easily the wildest one I've seen in months.

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

1 month

Even the wider US-EA productivity gap since Covid boils down to growth differentials. [Of course, long-run underperformance is structural: missed IT revolution, poor mgmt, prevalence of micro firms, incomplete Single Mkt and CMU, policy hesitancy vs US & China, you name it] 7/

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

1 month

Most of the above is cyclical, but there are also signs of potentially structural deterioration: - Hard-to-reverse public sector hiring - Higher woman activity rate (lower hours worked) - Frequent sick leaves - Falling self-employed AHW (changing attitude to labour supply?) 5/

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

1 year

But it’s not only banks: a downturn in CRE can spark feedback-loops with nonbanks (investment funds, insurers etc). True, CRE exposure in EZ is largely borne by banks, but nonbanks account for 60% of all CRE transaction value and funds’ leverage can amplify banks’ credit risk 3/

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

7 months

ECB hawks are back to warning against wage negotiations and second-round effects on inflation. Well, according to IMF analysis in the latest WEO, the impact of labour tightness on the EZ core HICP has been virtually null... 1/

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

1 year

All this doesn’t mean Doomsday is upon us, but with the return to higher yields/volatility and slower global growth, investors’ larger holdings of illiquid assets that are hard to mark-to-market are now increasingly exposed to repricing risk. Expect more “things” to “break”. END

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

3 years

In 2020, as Covid was about to hit Europe and Chinese factory closures disrupted global supply chains, I used Kremer's O-ring theory to explain that many production processes are *multiplicative* in inputs, ie shortages have non-linear impact on output 1/

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

20 days

I guess this could be a more accurate preview?🤣

Dario Perkins

@darioperkins

20 days

(WSJ) - Donald Trump's allies are quietly drafting proposals that would attempt to erode the Federal Reserve's independence

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

1 year

Shadow banks have also been the greatest sponsors of private markets’ exponential growth. Private equity and credit tend to be highly leveraged and show strong interconnectedness, not to mention tech exposure… 5/

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

1 month

The good news is that with an EA growth rebound in sight, productivity will recover too. Policymakers should better get out of the way rather than worsening the supply issue they want to alleviate. END cc: @TS_Lombard

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

1 year

Little victory lap🥳Not only the #ECB stepped down to 25bp hikes, but more importantly it did so for the reasons we highlighted - it's risk management, as rates rise further into restrictive territory, credit contracts and core HICP gives some glimmers of hope... 1/4

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

22 days

Important ECB Bulletin article. Disinflation is not over yet in the Euro Area and the ECB can afford to diverge from the Fed for a little bit.

European Central Bank

@ecb

22 days

This #EconomicBulletin article shows that price increases became much more frequent in 2021 and 2022 but their frequency is coming back down to pre-pandemic levels. Read more to find out what this means for inflation and monetary policy transmission

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

1 month

Surely, different job market adjustment mechanisms during Covid (e.g. EU furlough schemes preserving employment over hours worked) partly explain US-EA productivity divergence. But employment and hours worked trends have recoupled and cumulative changes since 2019 are similar 8/

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

2 months

The irresistible temptation to steal this as the title of my ECB update today 🤣 Very well done, Patrick!

Patrick Saner

@patrick_saner

2 months

@darioperkins It's called FOGF (fear of going first)

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

28 days

If you still need more convincing that inflation is about *power* and that CBs are always too keen on cutting the wage cycle short (last bulwark of neoliberalism), you should to read this. cc @darioperkins who taught me this years ago & @freyabeamish 😉

EZB: IG Metall, DGB und Verdi schimpfen auf die Europäische Zentralbank

Deutschlands Gewerkschaften kritisieren im Handelsblatt die EZB: Die Zinswende komme viel zu zögerlich. Wirtschaftsverbände nehmen die Notenbank aus der Schusslinie.

www.handelsblatt.com

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

18 days

Euro Area 'periphery' is outperforming 'core' Running a relatively higher-pressure economy benefits the periphery

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

6 years

@FerdiGiugliano That's because even illiterate folks like Salvini and Di Maio can make back-of-the-envelope calculations. No threat for €/EU. The real threat is the slow but continuous erosion of govt finances and, more worringly, of the rule of law in our country (eg statute of limitations)

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

1 year

In general, shadow banks have increased the overall riskiness of credit allocation in major DMs since 2016. In Europe, the nonbank segment of the leveraged loan market is a prime example. While covenant protection has declined. 6/

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

6 months

Research still to be peer-reviewed seems to suggest that the Sahm rule is good at screening recession false positives, but Perkins rule pins down the recessionary dynamics *earlier* when historically a real recession takes place. Give a Nobel to this man! #ANobel4Perkins

Dario Perkins

@darioperkins

6 months

The Sahm rule never signals a recession before the Perkins rule (yes now a real thing 😉). So for the unemployment rate to hit that threshold without payrolls contracting, that would be sign the labour market is behaving in unusual ways - and not necessarily a recession marker

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

5 years

@ErikFossing Many see it as the first step to create a parallel currency. It's fartched for now, especially given the motion voted is not law. But the message is twofold 1. Most MPs didn't read what they voted; 2. Ppl are desperate to pay creditors, but they'd rather use cash for handouts

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

5 years

cc: @Phastidio @micheleboldrin @CarloStagnaro @FabioGhironi @gianlucac1 @ThManfredi @FPanunzi

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

3 months

He did it again! 🚀🚀🚀 Another blockbuster guide by Dario - the "Ringhio Gattuso of Macroeconomics", as he likes to be called these days - on how to avoid being fooled by this "fake cycle". Read it and share it! 🔥🟥⬛️🔥 #GlobalMarkets #ForzaMilan

Dario Perkins

@darioperkins

3 months

NEW BLOG: Why the macro consensus has been getting everything wrong, and what comes next. Q&A guide to the weird business cycle that keeps fooling investors. (no paywall. Please share)

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

1 year

One of Lagarde's most hilarious (and confusing in terms of English) pressers so far🤣

Claus Vistesen

@ClausVistesen

1 year

Lagarde: Not necessarily 100% committed to 50bp in March, but yes, we're actually committed to 50bp.

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

3 years

My 1st time on Italian telly: Are #MarioDraghi 's political skills underrated? Watch out for reform implementation! Thanks to @FredianoFinucci for having me at @OmnibusLa7 @La7tv and to @GP_ArieteRosso @pietropaganini @jacopotondelli for a great chat

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

28 days

Crucial comment that shouldn't be taken lightly: 1) Meloni is saying what many EU politicians think 2) it shows a key flaw in our democracies: "leadership" turned on its head. Forming visions based on sound analysis of reality and promoting it *before vote* IS good politics 1/2

Maria Tadeo

@mariatad

28 days

Meloni «Draghi is authoritative. I’m happy an Italian is talked about highly. But I insist: this whole debate is…philosophical. It’s good for newspaper headlines…and good for campaigning. But I don’t like talking about who does what before people vote.» 1/

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

1 year

This was the way I understand most investors thought about it and how I think we should read the latest ECB/EBA/SRB statement about EZ banks. Admittedly, Swiss AT1s were always a bit different --now everybody knows-- but well ...

Paul Davies

@PaulJDavies

1 year

TBH my opinion always was an AT1 would never get converted in a going concern situation due to banks dropping below req'd capital levels because either the bank would have the capacity to repair its capital before the trigger was hit - or it would be rapidly going into resolution

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

5 years

@KellerZoe @ErikFossing You just don't know what you're talking about. 1. It's nonsense; 2. It's nonsense, but also suicidal.

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

2 months

It's working! Bloomberg picked this up🤣 By the bye @CraigStirling , I did all the heavy lifting to put up a huge #FOGF marketing campaign and you only mention @patrick_saner and @darioperkins ?! Wasn't there enough space for me too on the bandwagon??🤣

Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

2 months

We did it @patrick_saner ! #FOGF deserves to go viral! 🚀🔥🤣 @darioperkins <are you not entertained? GIF> 🤣 cc: @TS_Lombard

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

2 years

Here you go. He said he would have done so, after all. I guess it was a necessary step at this stage. Let's see if Mattarella sends him back and he accepts to carry on until 2023 with a different, more fragile majority or not...

Alessandro Speciale

@aspeciale

2 years

*ITALY'S MARIO DRAGHI SAYS HE WILL RESIGN

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

10 months

With #ECB hawks' tone changing a bit and doves finally out of their nest this week, I'll re-up this. Inflation data will remain key over summer to determine the September outcome and what the Fed does will matter too, but the ECB tightening has entered a new phase

Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

11 months

No rush, indeed! The ECB has done a better job than the Fed at convincing markets that their hawkishness is still credible, but I would not get too excited. This hawkishness looks 'tactical' and still consistent with a pause in Sep. That said, overtightening risk has increased

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

27 days

Agree with the tweet, but dislike the chart for the implicit point it makes. Too short time axis. EZ's lowflation of the 2010s is gone. Macro conditions for a moderately higher CPI regime are now maturing. The reference period is *pre* GFC. Good for both EZ economy and the ECB!

ACEMAXX ANALYTICS

@acemaxx

27 days

#euro #ECB - On a positive note, the risk of runaway #inflation looks low, supporting stable long-end #bond yields and risk assets, chart @MorganStanley

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

5 years

Con il riappiattimento della curva EONIA e aspettative che la BCE tenga i tassi negativi per molti altri mesi, i tassi sui mutui medi hanno smesso di aumentare ma questo non significa che le banche non possano ridurre l'offerta di credito. Ottimo @Phastidio as usual

Mario Seminerio

@Phastidio

5 years

Il presidente dell'Abi ci informa che i tassi sui prestiti praticati dalle banche italiane sono allineati alla media europea. Sicuri che sia una buona notizia?

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

6 years

@beniapiccone @carloalberto Vedo "improbabile" una spending review overnight. Per il resto, ci sono alcune difficoltà intrinseche a tagliare la spesa pubblica (chiedere M5S)

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

11 months

cc: @TS_Lombard

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

11 months

Glad this thread gave people some food for thoughts and an out-of-consensus view on Euro Area long-term growth and assets. But what about the *short-term* macro view (say, 1 year)? Spoiler: stagnation writ large. New chart-heavy🧵1/

Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

11 months

Confused about Euro Area's long-term macro? Overwhelmed by negative consensus and headlines? Well, it's time to consider the long-term bull case for Europe. Chart-heavy 🧵 1/

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

1 month

Hey, ECB, what about that wage-price spiral?😉 "Eurozone - Downward trajectory resumed in March" (Add this to March flash HICP downside surprise...)

Pawel Adrjan

@PawelAdrjan

1 month

📈 New data from the Indeed Wage Tracker 📉 🇪🇺 Eurozone - Downward trajectory resumed in March 🇬🇧 UK - Continued slowdown but wage growth remains high, a concern for monetary policymakers 🇺🇸 US - Wage growth is down to its 2019 average, a promising sign for the Fed

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

4 years

🇳🇱 is probably the only EU country that can seriously afford vetoing today's Franco-German proposal. So, it's good that #Macron & #Merkel have already set the ground for negotiations...🤭

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

1 year

@Phastidio Diciamo che se il personaggio non fosse anche a capo del partito che ha fatto della chiusura delle centrali nucleari (anche durante un crisi energetica epocale) un manifesto, sarebbe molto meglio...

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

5 years

Premetto che sono piuttosto nuovo su TW, ma un troll lo riconosco. Breve #Thread sulla questione #austerity 1/

Francesco Lenzi

@francelenzi

5 years

@DavideOneglia Guardi, questa è la definizione oecd. Sebbene non vi sia uniformità nella valutazione di quali siano le misure precise, ciò che conta è l'effetto sul saldo. Poi, mi scusi, un programma di aumento di imposte a spesa invariata non è forse austerity?

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

4 years

@davcarretta Onestamente sto avendo qualche problema a riconciliare tutti questi numeri. In appendice a questo working paper (p.51) della Commissione () c'e' una tabella con l'allocation key ma i numeri non mi tornano. Potrei sapere come avete fatto il calcolo?

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

6 months

Good points. #Draghi is ramping up efforts to shake EU politics out of stupor and into action. Beyond personal ambition, Draghi’s thought leadership can greatly influence EU decision making and markets/commentators seem too dismissive of potential upside EU policy surprises 1/

Stanley Pignal

@spignal

6 months

Mario Draghi claims the EU model had been to rely on US for defence, China for trade, Russia for energy -- and that now this model upon which Europe rested since WW2 is gone. It sounds compelling but I think it is flawed both in terms of history and geography (1/3)

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

1 year

Following up on the thread below, here is some more detail about why repricing risk in illiquid, rate-sensitive, opaque markets should remain on top of investors’ mind beyond the current global slowdown plays out (yes, this is not just a short-term view) 1/5

Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

1 year

With the bank turmoil of the past weeks investors have reawakened to credit risk. So far, banks’ exposure to Commercial Real Estate (CRE) has attracted most of the attention. But CRE is just one example of rate-sensitive, illiquid, opaque asset class. Little thread 1/

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

7 months

H/t and thank you @katie_martin_fx for highlighting my recent work on the rise in global bond yields and broader market stress!

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

2 months

Uuuh!! Another contestant for the "ECB Volatility Generating Machine Daily Award" !! Holzmann has competitors! 🤣 cc: @MrMBrown

Frederik Ducrozet

@fwred

2 months

🇪🇺🇲🇹The governor of the central bank of Malta ladies and gentlemen. 🍿 *ECB'S SCICLUNA: CAN'T EXCLUDE APRIL RATE CUT *ECB'S SCICLUNA: APRIL IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE OR EVEN IMPROBABLE

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

4 years

@darioperkins A radical change of look for the Macro Picture

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

1 month

Plus, the US-EA gap in AHW since Covid may not be as big. In fact, EU data methodology more closely resembles US Current Population Survey than private sector payroll survey (CES). In sum, most of US-EA productivity gap stems from growth differentials, esp. since mid-2022 9/

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

7 months

If you are watching out for tail risks to monitor: the risk of another energy shock in Europe, owing to the fallout from the Israel-Hamas war and the alleged sabotage of the Finland-Estonia gas pipeline should be on your list. Again, *tail risk*, not central case for policymakers

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

5 years

Ciò è tanto grave in quanto manca di minima logica. Alzare le tasse *non* è una misura di "austerity". È lo Stato che deve operare in un regime più austero (cioè controllando le *uscite*), non chi paga le imposte! END

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Davide Oneglia

@DavideOneglia

3 years

Losers have large exposure to EU/Chinese tourists, likely absent due to vaccine delays and incentives to domestic travel Winners have large domestic tourism industries but traditionally high levels of outbound tourists eg 🇺🇸, 🇬🇧🇩🇪... Or they're close to the US--go, Mexico! 2/2

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