Economist/Ökonom, "MMT: A Simple Explanation of the monetary system" (Springer 2024), „Makroökonomik“ (2023), "MMT and European Macroeconomics" (2017),
#MMT
🦉
In diesen beiden Bücher erkläre ich das aktuelle Geldsystem in 🇩🇪und 🇪🇺, einmal kurz & knackig, einmal lang & detailliert für alle, die es genau wissen wollen:
[Modern Monetary Theory, 2022, 62 S.]:
[Makroökonomik, 2023, 302 S.]:
Turkey is not doing MMT.
Venezuela is not doing MMT.
Zimbabwe is not doing MMT.
MMT is a description of monetary systems, not some economic policy proposals that cures all of society‘s ills, including the financial ones.
#LearnMMT
The German debt brake, which the German government decided to honor, has now become a big problem. Government spending will have to be cut by 60 billion. Germany already is in a recession, the Eurozone close to one. The macroeconomic mismanagement seen here (🇩🇪) is unprecedented.
Inflation is not caused by demand, because then we should see a very high rate of capacity utilization (blue). It was much higher in the 1990s, when inflation was low. So, nothing to see here - it must be the supply side.
The oil price and energy prices in general have so obviously been a major cause of a rise in the consumer price level. Theory should explain reality. If you have to "unsee" reality to confirm your "theory", it really is an ideology. There is *nothing* that can falsify it.
New Keynesian (NK) models have failed completely. Inflation is turning around while employment is still *growing*. NK models assume that we need *less* employment for lower inflation. Central banks need to rethink their monetary policy strategy.
When you notice that the government spending money and employing resources to build and run infrastructure is a benefit to Chinese people "although not profitable for China".
Running your economy for the people vs for profit. It is a political choice, not an economic law.
Some economists still haven't read a word of
#MMT
. The UK confirms MMT - the central bank "can always pin down yields". Sometimes they prefer not to. MMT does *not* say that exchange rates will be stable, never mind what government and central bank do. Huge win for
#MMT
. Again.
#MMT
is based on "monetary sovereignty," the idea that a central bank can always pin down yields via QE. Huge Yen devaluation and the UK bond market blow-up have debunked that. You'd think
#MMT
advocates would be out there defending their theory. Instead, all you hear is silence.
"There is no clear evidence from experience that the investment policy which is socially advantageous coincides with that which is most profitable."
- John Maynard Keynes, 1936
There is no such thing as credit card money; there is only public money. And that is created by the Bank of England (BoE) on behalf of HM Treasury when the UK Government spends. As a monopoly issuer of £, the BoE cannot and does not run out of £ - ever.
The end of the „golden age of capitalism“ started when economists declared that we could not have price stability AND full employment together. They did not have any empirical evidence to back up their claim. Nevertheless, decades of (unnecessary) mass unemployment followed.
Ever since Friedman and Phelps wrote their seminal papers on inflation and unemployment in the 60s, most practicing macroeconomists have worked with a model that looks something like this:
Core inflation = f(u) + Expected inflation
where u is the unemployment rate 2/
Can the Government "max out" the "government credit card"? Find out in my book published in April 2024: (spoiler: the Government pays through its central bank's money creation. There is no such thing as a "government credit card".)
Japan in recession.
The UK in recession.
Germany almost in recession.
The US growing at 2.5% (2023) and 2.0% (ist. 2024). Guess where government spending has been increased most? 🧐
Leider gibt es keinen belastbaren empirischen Zusammenhang zwischen der Höhe der Staatsausgaben und der Inflationsrate. Sonst hätte Skandinavien ständig Hyperinflation. Faktenbasierte Wirtschaftspolitik sieht anders aus.
Priorität muss die Bekämpfung der
#Inflation
sein - die große Gefahr für Staatshaushalt, Millionen Familien und die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung. Erst wenn wir Geldwertstabilität und wirtschaftliches Wachstum zurückhaben, können wir über Ausdehnung des Sozialstaats nachdenken. TL
The abuse of economics to support austerity has reached weird levels. There is nothing that functionally requires the Bank of England to have positive equity. This is politics masked as bad monetary theory. Thatcher's taxpayer myth at work...
JFK: "Is there any economic limit to the deficit?"
Adviser recalls his answer: "I said the only limit is really inflation."
JFK: “That's right, isn't it? The deficit can be any size, the debt can be any size, provided they don‟t cause inflation.”
US: expansionary fiscal policy
Eurozone: austerity policy
In a world where industry constitutes a large share of GDP and is ruled by increasing returns to scale, we would expect more demand (🇺🇸) to translate into higher productivity growth.
The Russian government pays its bills through its central bank, which credits the accounts of Russian banks in ruble. Since the Russian government does not rely on imports of food, energy or weapons, "our" gas and oil purchases do not finance Russia's war. An embargo won't work.
The £ that the UK Government spends are created by the Bank of England, they don't come from "cuts" or "taxes". All government spending is "funded" by money creation. There is no taxpayer's money. There is only public money.
Die skandinavischen Länder (🇳🇴🇸🇪🇫🇮🇩🇰) zeigen sehr deutlich, dass hohe Staatsausgaben weder zu hoher Inflation führen noch zu einer Weichwährung mit schlechtem Wechselkurs, einer sinkenden Wettbwerbsfähigkeit oder weniger Produktivitätswachstum. 🫎
1983, Margaret Thatcher: "There is no such thing as public money; there is only taxpayers' money."
2021, reality: ""There is no such thing as taxpayers' money; there is only public money."
#LearnMMT
Last time Argentina 🇦🇷 experimented with a $-backed currency, it crashed the economy. Unemployment and poverty skyrocketed. A Job Guarantee Program was created to alleviate these social ills and it did. I hope that Argentina will not repeat that mistake.
“Many economists are actually a tribal clique. [They] are among the most tribal scientists that you can think of. They quote each other. They don’t go beyond that world. They feel comfortable in that world. And maybe models have something to do with it.”
Servicetweet: Wenn die deutsche Bundesregierung Zahlungen tätigt, handelt es sich um “Staatsausgaben”.
“Staatsschulden” ist die historische Diffferenz zwischen allen Staatsausgaben und Steuereinnahmen und damit eine Statistik.
Der Stast zahlt nicht mit “Schulden”.
Europeans are losing out because of horrendous macroeconomic policy-making in the Eurozone. Whereas the US still increases government spending, European governments do not. Result: more unemployment, less output, inflation still elevated.
Repeat after me:
There is no such thing as "fiscal space".
A federal government using its own money cannot run out of it, but it can run out of resources that its citizens are willing to sell to it. "Fiscal space" is confusing real capacity with monetary capacity.
There is no such thing as "not sustainable" public debt. It is a political decision, and macroeconomics should reflect that and not portray "public debt" as private debt. Mainstream macroeconomics has been spreading falsehoods about public spending for far too long.
I fully agree with Christian Lindner who says: “The capital markets do not distinguish between the noble or less noble motives for which debt is incurred and what it is invested in. They simply judge whether is it sustainable or not sustainable.” A strong case for the use of DSA
Germany‘s government will ask Eurozone countries to cut government spending. The sick man of Europe is telling the healthy neighbors to imitate his life style. I‘m sure they won‘t be happy about this.
Nur die Modern Monetary Theory (
#MMT
) erklärt, wie der Staat tatsächlich Ausgaben tätigt – nämlich über die Zentralbank. Die Politik kann dabei Ausgaben beschließen. Eine "Finanzierung" durch Steuern (Steuererhöhungen) oder Staatsanleihen gibt es nicht.
MMT ist Mainstream.
Wir sollten dringend die Fächer „Wirtschaftsgeschichte“ und „Ökonomische Ideengeschichte“ wieder in den Studiengängen der Volkswirtschaftslehre verankern.
I think this has not been getting the attention it deserves. Deficit rules are suspended. Eurozone government can spend what they want, with the ECB taking care of the spreads. Got it?
We promised we'll do everything to support Europeans & 🇪🇺companies through the crisis. We deliver. Yesterday we put in place the most flexible ever
#StateAid
rules to help people+companies. Today we trigger the clause to relax budget rules, enabling govs to pump💶into the economy
Here are three rules that I find very useful:
1. Never show debts withouts showing the other side of the balance sheet (like monetary wealth).
2. Never get excited about a nominal value that increases over time.
3. Never confuse private (has to be repaid) with public debt (not).
This chart is making a round on FinTwit today.
Both Europe and the US will eventually follow Japan and implement yield curve control. Enjoy these positive real rates as long as they last.
A quick economics lesson on the value of the government “creating jobs”:
— if the government just prints money and gives it to people (eg stimmy checks), that does not create value. It creates inflation.
— if the government hires people to dig holes and fill them back up, it’s…
#MMT
describes a fiat world, where people pay with digital promises of payments in the state's currency (bank deposits, credit cards, ApplePay, etc.).
Neoclassical economics describes a flat world, where people pay with gold coins.
Time to move on, people.
The Phillips Curve is not an economic law.
The Phillips Curve is not an economic law.
The Phillips Curve is not an economic law.
The Phillips Curve is not an economic law.
The Phillips Curve is not an economic law.
The Phillips Curve is not an economic law.
"Sweden’s Central Bank Needs More Than $7 Billion to Cover Losses"
Wrong. They need almost 80 billion kronor. Good thing that the Swedish central bank (
@riksbanken
) is the moonopoly supplier of Sweden's currency. So, what's the problem? This is bizarre!
It is interesting to see that after all those years, there are still not academic replies to MMT based on science. It is still the eclectic mix of that we got from the very start. For instance, there is no academic work that refutes our balance sheets.
#MMT
is not "disputed".
Puh. Das ist genau die Art von Ökonomik, die durch Keynes beseitigt wurde:
- Sparsamkeit ist gut
- hohe Löhne sind schlecht
- Kosten sind monetär, nicht real
- Politik schlecht, weil sie Inflation erzeugt
Aber heute gibt es, anders als in der Weltwirtschaftskrise, Alternativen.
Inflation rate (red) and monetary supply growth (M3) for the 🇬🇧. It is not obvious how an increase in M3 would *cause* the rate of inflation to rise. It seems that energy prices and corporate power have been the driver of high inflation rates.
#monetarism
Alan Greenspan in 2011: "The United States can pay any debt it has because we can always print [create digital] money to do that. So there is zero probability of default" said Greenspan on NBC's Meet the Press
Still true today.
Governments and public debt are not like households and private debt. It is time to get rid of this nonsense about debt sustainability, interest rates and growth rates. The UK's public debt goes back to the 17th century and stood at more than 200% of GDP at times. Move on.
Thought for the end of the year: I still have not seen any balance sheets that show how tax and bond revenues "finance" government spending nor any refutation of
#MMT
. There is just no credible alternative to Modern Monetary Theory when it comes to "public finance".
Die Schuldenbremse war, ist und wird immer ein politisches Deckblatt sein, um den Staat klein zu halten. Der Staat sollte lieber seine Hausaufgaben machen (Geld für Klimaschutz, Infrastruktur, Arzneimittel, Bildung, Richter, Feuerwehr, Polizei, etc.).
Heute ist mein e-book "Modern Monetary Theory: eine Einführung" in der Reihe Springer essentials erschienen. Es hat 54 Seiten und kostet 4,48€. Studierende können es eventuell über ihre Uni-Bibliothek herunterladen. Danke an
@Springernomics
! 🤝
#MMT
High/higher public debt does not correlate with the rate of inflation in Japan. The economy is not a simple mechanical machine where one monetary impulse translates directly into a price impulse. It's just not how this works. If you can't explain 🇯🇵, you can't explain anything.
Do higher interest rates lead to lower inflation? The Czech Republic has raised interest rates from 0 to 5 percent since last summer. The Slovak Republic did not. The result: inflation is at above ten percent in both countries. [1/n]
If you want to understand money, read books written by MMT authors or the new one written by Paul Sheard. They will enlighten you. There is no such thing as taxpayer's money – there is only public money. Understanding modern money is crucial for our societies to move forward.
"In fact, fighting inflation will require a reduction in job vacancies and also an increase in unemployment."
- Olivier Blanchard, Alex Domash and Lawrence H. Summers, July 2022
Reality in 2023: No, it doesn't.
#MMT
is the intellectual cure against:
🧚♀️ the deficit myth
🧚 taxpayer‘s money
🧚♀️ the loanable funds theory
🧚 Ricardian equivalence
🧚♀️ quantity equation-based theories of inflation
🧚 the money multiplier
What did I forget?
43.000 Bewerber für 288 Wohnungen - diese Art von „Marktsignal“ gibt es seit Jahren, aber „der Markt” kriegt es nicht hin. Wir brauchen deutlich mehr kommunalen Wohnungsbau, nicht nur in Berlin.
John Maynard Keynes, The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, Chapter 14. The Classical Theory of the Rate of Interest: „a nonsense theory“.
"[T]he US government can simply spend money into existence: the Federal Reserve electronically credits bank accounts with brand new $. The government then taxes away the new $ or exchanges it for US Treasuries, gathering back the tokens it creates."
#MMT
Inflationsrate im April in 🇩🇪 für die, die Euros nutzen: 7,4%
Inflationsrate im April in 🇩🇪 für die, die Bitcoin nutzen: 7,4% + 23,6% (Abwertung BTC/€ in 2022) = 31,0%
In Jahren, in denen der Preis des Bitcoin hochging, gab es entsprechend hohe Deflation. Nur mal so nebenbei.
We are doing whatever is needed to bring inflation back to our 2% target, Executive Board member
@Isabel_Schnabel
tells
@tonline
.
We need to continue raising interest rates as inflation is likely to remain high for some time despite a looming downturn
4 signs you are bad with economics:
1. You don't understand that the 🇺🇸gov's red ink is our black ink.
2. You believe that $ come from other people instead of the 🇺🇸 gov.
3. You believe that the currency-issuing 🇺🇸 gov is "lending" $.
4. see
#1
.
For more than three centuries, UK politicians claimed that their grandchildren would have to "repay" the public debt. For more than three centuries, that never happened. 🤷♂️
Do you really believe that (y)our grandchildren will have to "repay" the public debt,
@WilliamClouston
?
Today's 'triple lock' rise of 8.5% in the state pension is not affordable. It's financed by debt (public sector borrowing is well over £100bn).
The unserious politicians responsible had better hope their grandchildren are big on forgiveness...
Government spending crowds-in private investment, the data says. Economic theory has to explain reality. So, economic theory needs to be adjusted to be able to explain the facts. Government spending, not interest rates, drives private investment.
Since there are no national or international insolvency laws for crntral banks, they cannot become „insolvent“. Given that they are monopoly suppliers of money, nobody cares about their equity - they cannot run out of money.
As a reminder, the Fed is insolvent to the tune of $44.2BN.
If the US was UK, it would be getting a taxpayer bailout right now. Luckily for the world's reserve currency, it isn't
Don't forget who built that infrastructure: workers.
Don't forget who paid for that infrastructure: the Government.
There was no talk about "maxing out" the "government credit card" back then – a "can do" society trying to create what it thought a "good" society. 💪🇬🇧
The UK really lives on the stuff it built in the '60s and '70s.
So much of its civic infrastructure - schools, hospitals, water reservoirs, etc - comes from that era.
As Labour drops its pledge to spend £28bn a year on green investments, Sir Keir blamed the party's major U-turn on the Conservatives' 'reckless' plans to 'max out on the government credit card' after doing 'terrible damage to our economy'
The idea that these curves actually mean anything is not borne by the mathematics behind the model, btw. You can calculate the point of "equilibrium", but that's it. There is no mathematical foundation for the curves (here: straight lines).
The economy is not a machine.
Debates about the causes of inflation and disinflation are getting strangely tangled, partly because some people don't seem to recognize that both aggregate demand and aggregate supply can shift. Here, using standard textbook pictures, is what I think happened 1/
#MMT
is such a useful theory because it is rooted in reality. Whether public deficits/private surpluses are "inflationary" is an empirical question, not a theoretical question: Theory *explains* reality. MMT is an empirical theory while almost all others are mere "assumptions".
This is not science. There is no theory to link „printing money“ to higher inflation. It is therefore impossible to falsify statements like these because they are unscientific. (Btw: why the time lag? Why not hyperinflation in 2020? Silence…)
More than 300 years of public debt in the 🇬🇧. The
@bankofengland
, monopoly issuer of the £, never ran out of £s ever. And yet we have these debates about “fiscal credibility” as if the government could run out of money. It can't. It won't. Move on.
The goal of "taxpayers' money" has always been, is, and always will be the privatization of state assets, which means a redistribution of income/assets to the benefit of the rich. You cannot be against privatization but stay silent on Thatcher's £ myth.
MMT Conference 15-17th July at
Leeds University Business School
We are delighted to be hosting all the leading Modern Monetary Theory academics speaking on the massive advantages to be gained by policy makers in using the MMT lens and helping us make sense of what’s going on.
Any economic theory based on sending money into the future or the past is no economic theory. We can't borrow from the future, we can't put our children in debt. We *could* leave a planet in good condition to the next generations and hand over adequate infrastructure, too.
@Mike23072098
If you could take $1,000 that you have and send it back in time to your great grandparents so they could buy more food or clothing or whatever would you give up some of your own well being to help them out?
How about sending it forward in to your great grand children?
Deutschland ist das einzige Land, das die Staatsausgaben kürzt, um die Inflation zu reduzieren.
Folge: Deutschland ist das einzige große Land, das schrumpft. Die Inflation geht überall zurück.
Deutschland fällt 2023 noch tiefer in die Rezession: Der IWF geht von einer weltweit anhaltend schwächelnden Konjunktur aus. Laut Prognose schrumpft Deutschland als einzige bedeutende Volkswirtschaft – und stärker als bislang erwartet.
The Czech Republic is raising interest rates since last summer (from 0 to 5 percent), while the Slovak Republic does not (it is in the Euro Area). Whereas last summer inflation was the same in both countries, it is now higher in Czechia. Raising rates does not seem to help here.
We don't have an "inflation problem". We have a profits/oligopoly/cartel problem, and the rising inflation is the symptom of that. Fix the energy & supply side problems and the inflation problem will go away.
Wer sich zu Wirtschaft äußert, sollte den Unterschied zwischen Ursache (steigende Energiepreise) und Symptom (steigende Inflationsraten) kennen.
Sonst bekämpfen wir ein Symptom statt die Ursache. Das kann für alle Beteiligten nur böse enden.
Soll jetzt schon Mitte Februar 2022 erscheinen: meine neue Einführung zu Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), die sich auch an Laien wendet.
€14,99 bei
@Springer_VS
, vorbestellbar überall da, wo es Bücher gibt.
It is great to see
#MMT
and the
#GreenNewDeal
being discussed by the media: "The money that’s spent, for its part, is never ‘raised’ first. To the contrary, federal spending is what brings that money into existence."
The UK has spent more £ than it took back in tax revenues for more than 300 years. Don't let anyone tell you that "there is no money", "the government credit card is maxed out" or that there would be no "magic money tree": that's all nonsense on stilts! 💷
Wer Staat und Geld trennt, der kann kein Demokrat sein. Wenn der Staat erst privates Geld beschaffen muss, um seine Ausgaben zu tätigen, dann werden Steuerzahler und Staatsanleihenkäufer der Regierung reinreden können und sehr mächtig. Der Weg zurück in den Feudalismus.
London Metal Exchange halts trading in
#Nickel
after an unprecedented 250% price spike left brokers struggling to pay margin calls. Top producer Tsingshan under pressure to meet margin calls. Prices spiked as short position holders scrambled to close out.
Well, now you know why inequality is rising. Based on the New Keynesian models, central banks and governments are willingly creating unemployment to reduce inflation. While it doesn't work as they thought it would, the unintended consequences affecting inequality have been real.
Inflation rate and interest rate in Japan, 1950-2022.
(And yet, I am sure that Japanese economists teach their students that a rise in the interest rate will reduce inflation and a fall in the interest rate increase it.)
Service tweet: The government does *not* spend cash. The quantity of cash is not connected with government spending. When government spends, *bank deposits* and reserves are created. So, not all bank deposits are caused by private borrowing.
Dear university students of economics,
please ask your macroeconomics or public finance professor/lecturer why Greek bonds are a success story today while they were not in the Eurocrisis that started in 2010.
You will learn a lot!
Australians celebrating the government surplus, which means that the government took more $ from Australians than it gave them through spending $, leaving Australians poorer than before. 🤔💰☹️🇦🇺
Coming in April 2024 to a bookstore near you (🇺🇸):
“Modern Money Theory: A Simple Guide to the Monetary System”, part of the book series: Professional Practice in Governance and Public Organizations (PPGPO)
@Springernomics
„Economists set themselves too easy, too useless a task, if in tempestuous seasons they can only tell us, that when the storm is long past, the ocean is flat again.“
- John Maynard Keynes
There is no such thing as a “MMT narrative”. MMT describes money creation in a modern economy. We acknowledge that some central bankers (including from Bundesbank) come to the same conclusions as we do. That’s all there is to it.
What's the origin story of this paper by the Bank of England that MMT folks cite all the time? Is the BoE deliberately endorsing an MMT narrative here or are they just explaining how QE works and MMT fans corrupt it for their dubious policy proposals?