Throughout 2018-2020 I bought
#Bitcoin
and encouraged people to buy below 10k
In April 2021, I said
#Bitcoin
topped at 64k and sold everything
In November 2022, I came back, called 15.5k the bottom and bought back in at 16.5k
I'm here to help you
Newsletter link in Bio ๐
Maybe, I have finally cracked the
#Bitcoin
code.
The November 28th Cycles Theory has held the key.
Using 4-year time cycles against my Theory, produces Bitcoins exact behavior in time since its inception.
Cycles are centered around the
The model that almost perfectly called both 2021
#Bitcoin
tops after it was created marks fierce resistance at blue layer 4.
Bitcoin ran into this twice at the recent highs, at 31 and 32k.
The model marks the current topmost price at
#Bitcoin
is 7 months and 22 days from its next projected halving date, April 16th 2024.
It's interesting to see how previous cycles performed at a similar time...
Bitcoin is wildly cyclical, and during this period price typically enters
The Fibonacci Sequence is present on more than just
#Bitcoin
price action
The Monthly RSI has remained inside a Fibonacci channel for its entire existence
It has gotten very close to telling us when Bitcoin bottoms and tops, and also tells us
Today is the most important day of the year for
#Bitcoin
.
All cycles are centered around the date of the first halving, November 28th, 2012.
Green Accumulation Year is now over, and Blue Year has begun.
Every single prediction of the Halving Cycles Theory Green Year was
I have created a brand new
#Bitcoin
price model based on my November 28th Cycle's Theory predictions:
The N28CT Price Model
It gives us the next cycle top price: 140k
Next cycle bottom price: 27k
And 2 cycles from
It's a bold claim to say "this time is different" for
#Bitcoin
.
To do that, you're betting against 3, going on 4 cycles of the same.
Everything you've seen so far, including the launch of ETFs have played right into the cycle.
Remember when they told you that ETF's were
The significance of the
#Bitcoin
halving's is undeniable now.
My November 28th Cycles Theory is now only a part of this brand-new model:
The Halving Cycles Theory.
You're going learn everything you need to know about right here.
This model exists from
Most people seem to be expecting about one more drop for
#Bitcoin
, between the prices of 21k - 23.5k.
Is it possible? Sure! But it now seems the most surprising scenario would be an upwards continuation.
It's not just
The N28CT Price model gave you the
#Bitcoin
bottom at 15.5k in Nov 22, coming +/- 21 days from Nov 28th then.
It gave and continues to give you the best cycle buying prices during accumulation year.
It gave you a move to the median ($34,500 blue line) in green year.
Now
Have you heard of Steve's 5.3
#Bitcoin
Theory?
This says that returns are diminishing by 5.3x from bottom to top each cycle.
If this is true, the next cycle top will be about $77,000...
I've done a ton of math, so you don't have to! Let's see if this is the real deal.
#Bitcoin
is back to blue!
During major bull runs, miner revenue begins a huge ramp up while prices surge.
These times in the red can only come after cool down and accumulation in blue low pressure.
After sending a huge false
Just like other cycles, the
#Bitcoin
mid-top was made at the .618 Fibonacci retrace at about 48k.
Nothing different there.
So what's next on Fibonacci?
Every mid-top has then at least corrected to the orange .382, which is priced at $35,445.
The mid-top has come right inside
No
#Bitcoin
cycle mid-top has ever been made without a revisit to the Monthly Least Square Moving Average.
The price of this MA: $30,358.
This number is increasing steadily, but price has come no where close to the always tested support.
This, and many other long-term data
Since I came to the crypto space in 2018 I have now:
Bought
#Bitcoin
under 10k in 2018 - 2020.
Sold it all at 54k in April 2021.
Went all in at 16.5k in Nov 2022.
Yep, this is my real story.
Here are all of the lessons I've learned so you can start doing the same ๐
The Bollinger Band % makes it incredibly easy to tell whether
#Bitcoin
is in a Bull or Bear Market.
The 2 years and 7 months of bearish price action is over.
This particular Bull Market threshold at the .88% mark told us that the last cycle, black swan and all, was bearish
This cycle, I will be keeping the closest eye on layer 6 for the
#Bitcoin
cycle top.
By the Halving Cycles Theory date of +/- 21 days from November 28th, 2025 here are the prices of the top 3 bands:
Layer 7: 180k
Layer 6: 130k
Layer 5: 94k
The layer 6 price of 130k lines up
For the first time,
#Bitcoin
is rejecting from Layer 5 of the Log Regression cycle top bands.
And this is a good thing! The longer it takes price to reach the cycle top band, the higher it can climb.
Layer 6 is now priced at 95,236
Layer 7 is priced at $132,526
After Bitcoin
About 2 Weeks ago, I made the claim that
#Bitcoin
topped out at 45k, and I am still sticking to it.
The LMACD adds another layer of confirmation with a cross of the Descending Cycle Mid-Top Trend.
So if this isn't the cycle top, why does this matter?
The mid-top typically
This is as simple as it gets!
The
#Bitcoin
cycle mid-top point is completely in on the green Monthly RSI channel.
This again implies the local high was likely at 45k
I love to hear the comments that all of a sudden, TA doesn't work anymore...
That's exactly what they said at
I have been bullish on
#Bitcoin
for all of 2023, but data shows us it's time for a cooldown to start off the New Year, 2024.
It's a battle between reliable long-term data and those who think that this time will be different.
I know which side I'm on!
A 30% correction from the
Nope, this isn't RSI on
#Bitcoin
, this is MVRV-Z, viewed on a Monthly time frame.
Doing it this way gives it incredible accuracy compared to its normal counterpart.
What can we learn from this?
1. The bottom is in with a precise touch of the ascending trend line.
2. A retest
About 1 Year ago, I went all in on
#Bitcoin
at 16.5k.
Prior to that, I had sold all of my coins bought under 10k, at 54k in April 2021. (documented in pinned tweet)
I left the space for a 1 1/2 years, until I heard about the FTX crash.
The Monthly RSI was one of the many
When
#Bitcoin
was below 10k last cycle, I went all in, buying as much as I could
Then I sold it all at 54k in April 2021
Now I'm all in from 16.5k in November 2022
Everything is documented in my pinned Tweet
Now, it's time to teach you the 5 secrets to my success...๐
The 200 SMA Wave calls for one of the most aggressive
#Bitcoin
declines out there.
A target of $28,000.
This indicator, and others like it show that after Bitcoin makes its escape above, it returns to top of the wave to retest the moving average.
Some think that our decline
The Pi Cycle Top is the most popular
#Bitcoin
cycle top calling indicator that exists.
And for good reason, it was 1 day off from the top in April 2021 and between 1 and 3 days for every top before it.
But before that cross can happen, price needs to stay above the 350 DMA*2
The Halving Cycles Theory was correct in every single
#Bitcoin
prediction of Green Year.
Now we get to the first prediction of Blue Year...
Spending most time around the median, 34,500.
Everyone is sitting and waiting for this time to be different because of ETFs.
Early cycle
#Bitcoin
is making a small rebound from its drop to $38,500, to now $42,000.
But some people may be jumping the gun to say the bottom is in.
With 12 other examples, the weekly RSI is due to head to the orange .382 support zone, with prices in the low 30k's.
The most common
Many
#Bitcoin
indicators and moving averages tell us when something will happen, when it happens.
But the Ichimoku cloud lets us look into the future with leading indicators.
Price has run into resistance on the Weekly cloud, and that happens every cycle.
Once the
The
#Bitcoin
Elliot Wave Oscillator on the Weekly has just printed a red candle. This means one of two things:
1. A bear market downtrend has started
or
2. Bitcoin is bottoming
The bear market downtrend has already ended for this cycle, leaving us only one option.
Maybe the
#Bitcoin
data has almost unanimously reached levels that only come within 1 year of the cycle top.
One of the most simple cycle top and bottom determiners that I have used for years is the monthly RSI double tops.
Every cycle top has ended in the overbought territory of the
#Bitcoin
is facing resistance for the first time in a while at ATHs (69k), which is completely natural.
Our cycle is heating up, but it is not over.
The Monthly Relative Vigor Index has crossed a .21 value, which in the past has marked a cycle top to come in 10 Months, December
I have always been one to go against the grain.
It would be so easy to join the crowd and call for one more
#Bitcoin
push with potential ETFs looming.
But long-term data has spoken!
Here again, we see the Puell Multiple has fired for the mid-top, which it has called without
Greed surrounding
#Bitcoin
ETFs couldn't be higher, and data couldn't look more overheated.
This is why I have remained a step ahead, and have been saying that Bitcoin has found its local high at 45k.
The SMI has completely peaked, the first time this happens in every cycle has
Here's the good news for
#Bitcoin
:
Cycle bottoms have come at the floor of the green buy in zone of the RPV for the past 2 cycles, telling us the bottom is in for our current cycle!
Here's some more good news:
In both of those cycles,
Unlike the Halving Cycles Theory, the Alternate Theory says there is a possibility that
#Bitcoin
cycles are shifting left by 6 months.
This would call for a top around May 2025.
As price nears yearly highs, more and more people are convinced this time is different.
Price for
This time is not different
Break out of phase 3 leads us straight to the completion of phase 5, the
#Bitcoin
cycle mid-top.
Euphoria is on the rise, as price has gone completely vertical.
Phase 5 tops here at $45,500.
I tried to tell you it was coming...
Money is pouring into
#Bitcoin
at a rate not seen since the last cycle top, and only 5 other times in history.
Things are getting heated
After reaching the Money Flow Index 91.57 value line, there's always been a little more gas in the tank to keep on pushing
The strongest
It looks like my
#Bitcoin
Magic Bands are showing they shouldn't be underestimated.
Almost 3 months ago at $33,000, these bands called for 48k after a break of Yellow Primary Level 1.
Blue Level 2 since then increased slightly to $49,200 which was almost perfectly hit recently.
It's time to break down exactly how this new
#Bitcoin
price model works...
As I said this is derived from my November 28th Cycles Theory.
This Theory calls tops and bottoms with a +/- 21 day accuracy and tells us what happens in each given year
Tops and bottoms come at these
Although
#Bitcoin
data showed the possibility of one final push, I now believe that phase 5 of the mid-cycle Fibonacci phases is complete.
This would mean that Bitcoin made its cycle mid-top at $45,000.
If this is true, a corrective period is typically standard after the fact.
These are the most accurate Log Regression Curves in existence for
#Bitcoin
.
And up until now, we have never been able to see what they say for the next cycle top.
A curve matching projection gives us two targets for late 2025:
Layer 6: 130k
Layer 7: 180k
I have multiple
This time is not different
MVRV resistance is smashed
#Bitcoin
is on its way to the .786 landmark of the 2-day candle body retraces:
$47,095
Air is clear to the red zone...
ETF fantasies and new ATH greed are surging.
This was all scheduled!
I tried to tell you
Typically, the
#Bitcoin
Bull Market is launched as soon as the Weekly RSI crosses the dashed mid-line.
But every cycle,
#Bitcoin
makes a fake cross over and fails to start the Bull Market.
After the rise to 32k, the fake out
After finding resistance at layer 4, the
#Bitcoin
Log Regression Model that called the last 2 cycle tops in real time has price starting to leak through support...
The next support level is layer 2, which is currently priced at $20,155 and increasing by the day.
It gives
#Bitcoin
is on its 27th week of sideways price action.
This isn't the first time we've seen this, so I went back and measured each and every time this has happened.
Here's some interesting facts, and when this is likely to end:
Just like we were waiting for, the second move to the high loss buy zone is finally here for
#Bitcoin
on the RPV ratio!
The more I look, the more I am starting to see the possibility that downside may be tapped out.
The cycle bottom is confirmed with the first move to
In many ways, with the most recent
#Bitcoin
move to 52k, this cycle is doing things differently.
Now is officially the longest any early blue year rally has been sustained, barely toppling 2020's rally ending February 13th.
There has also never been a cycle to see sustained
BitTime shows us clearly that we are following a cycle more like cycle 2 (2015 - 2018).
It proved this when
#Bitcoin
made its first early top (yellow dot) in July, and bottomed in August just like 2015 did.
Because of this, I think it makes perfect sense to end our first Blue
The first early
#Bitcoin
top of the cycle is now in 31.9k (yellow dot) according to my Halving cycles Theory.
These tops come every cycle in green accumulation year (after green vertical line) +/- 21 days from the date of the second halving, July 9th.
The first early
Is the
#Bitcoin
bull market here?
Let's be crystal clear on this.
If you're thinking about new ATHs next, price discovery, and absolute euphoria inbound, then no... not quite.
That is reserved for Red Year, scheduled to begin after November 28th, 2024.
But if you mean the
#Bitcoin
takes a drop, but the November 28th Cycles Theory remains completely unfazed, and just keeps on chugging.
The end of green years hasn't been very bullish in the past, but let's remember what green year is all about:
Accumulation, the best cycle buying prices!
Here's a
You have seen cycle bands like this for
#Bitcoin
before.
But never to this accuracy.
If you look closely, you'll see how almost every major local top and bottom has respected these.
This is my own creation, I call them: The Magic Bands!๐ช
And they say next up is 48k.
They
Both the 2017 and 2021
#Bitcoin
cycle tops could have been predicted in advance, to precision.
The measurement of the complete first cycle gains holds the key.
It is done by moving the first cycle's increase to the next Bitcoin support level.
This gives us two targets:
I have been an advocate for normal
#Bitcoin
cycle timing for as long as I could, but price looks to be on the verge of entering an early parabola.
Level 2 at $50,200 has been firmly broken, which by this model calls for a move to the next primary band:
Level 3 at $85,344.
This
I find it interesting to see people say that this time is different for
#Bitcoin
, because so far, not a single thing has been.
Here's what BitTime and the Halving Cycles Theory has said so far in 2023:
Bitcoin would bottom +/- 21 days from November 28th, 2022: Actual bottom =
A close look at
#Bitcoin
Halving Cycle Blue Years shows just how similar they are.
Even more similar, are the comparisons to alternating cycles.
Cycles 1 and 3 rallied strongly at the beginning of Blue Year in November, while this cycle and cycle 2 started in September.
Like
MVRV has now helped me sell my
#Bitcoin
at 54k in April 2021, and buy back in at 16.5k in Nov 2022.
(See posts below)
But so far, I've had to be a little creative to be able to do this.
I want to show you a way I think will help to make it even more accurate, by applying a
The same exact pattern for
#Bitcoin
has played itself out in every cycle with the 20 Week EMA.
Recently, during the pullback to $38,500, price narrowly missed a retest of the moving average as support, a false retest.
But a closer look at the cycles shows that every single one
Even as
#Bitcoin
makes a strong rebound, I am sticking to cycle timing and data.
All mid-top points have been hit, and what follows according to previous mid-tops and our cycle position is a large correction and a long sideways period.
A lower high for each mid-top is also
With
#Bitcoin
entering price discovery mode and new ATHs a year earlier than usual, we may be witnessing the death of the 4-year cycle.
Our before, perfectly structured cycles would have called for a top late 2025, but we seem to now be right on track for a top late 2024.
With
At 31k,
#Bitcoin
was inches away from breaking out of a massive bull flag.
But this proved to be major resistance on multiple fronts, on long-term data across the board.
So what does this mean?
The primary macro pattern for Bitcoin is
#Bitcoin
is racing down to realized loss on the 50-day moving average of the RPV ratio.
And if previous cycles tell us anything, this is the last time it happens until the next cycle top!
Each cycle, Bitcoin makes a
Chris Moody's Market bottom indicator tells us clearly, that the
#Bitcoin
bottom is in the past!
When the green lights shut off, bottom time is over. We are now 6 grey candles deep putting us in a time when Bitcoin takes a small pause.
So many people seem to
#Bitcoin
Weekly RSI has finally peaked into the cycle top zone, with a close coming tomorrow!
The first move into this zone has brought a first top within a 1/2 month to 4 months, and the final cycle top between 7 and 10 months.
This means we could expect a possible first top
Simply put, the Weekly Ichimoku Cloud says that a break of the cloud top point at $52,800 marks the run to
#Bitcoin
ATHs and the cycle top.
A break of this point now would be almost an entire year earlier than usual, as most occur during the transition from Blue Year
I have overhauled BitTime to make it much easier to understand.
Here's what it tells us about
#Bitcoin
:
All cycles are similar to each other, but they get even more precise when they alternate.
Take a look at how closely the two black cycles (1 and 3) lined up!
Recently, the
This time is different
A saying as old as
#Bitcoin
itself
And also the singular reason why anyone has ever missed the best opportunities from cycles that have never changed!
What would happen if you just assumed that everything was the same? You might wind up successful.
I
#Bitcoin
is dancing on the edge of the most exciting part of the cycle: price discovery and illogical gains of Red Year.
Data like the MVRV-Z score confirms that our cycle may be a year accelerated, bringing a cycle top by the end of 2024.
Upon crossing the 2.56 MVRV-Z value
In our 2023 green year,
#Altcoins
barely did a thing.
But when we take a look at BitTime, which applies to more than just Bitcoin, you'll notice a similarity.
Look how terrible the performance was for Altcoins in the last white cycle green year! (2015)
And then what happened?
2 main touches of balanced price are all you get at a
#Bitcoin
cycle bottom, and I don't think this time will be any different. It's simple.
In 2022, Bitcoin hit its first bottom on balanced price with a fall to 17.7k.
The second touch was
This
#Bitcoin
correction below 40k should come as a surprise to no one.
Long-term data has been overheated since 45k in December, and mid-top price points were met at 49k.
I have been covering this extensively.
The RSI Mid-Top channel made this super easy, each mid-top has
#Bitcoin
Short-Term Holder loss is finally, completely maxed out, with a touch of the high loss boundary.
Twice this has marked the beginning of the bear market, in 2018 and 2022.
But since the bear market downtrend has ended, it's looking much more similar
#Bitcoin
is not prepared for new ATHs in the near future.
This comes after crossing above the CCI Critical Zone.
Instead, it formed a pinnacle inside it just like we've seen from 4 other examples before a near 30% decline.
This triggered at 45k in December 2023, even though
#Bitcoin
is nearing cycle-top volatility.
In fact, no 2-week RVI has reached this high ever outside of the context of a cycle top, or ramp-up to it.
So what does this mean? Are we ramping up to a new ATH?
Not so fast.
We have never seen a move this powerful come in the middle
I wanted to take some time to answer popular questions:
Where do I think
#Bitcoin
will go next? Cycle timing and data have already suggested a move to lower prices since 49k. Price did correct from those levels, but has that has been much more shallow than usual so far. I am
In April 2021 when everyone was waiting for 100k
#Bitcoin
, I used long term data to sell my coins that I bought under 10k at 54k
Now I'm bought in for this cycle at $16,500, and it is my mission to help you succeed
Here is a 5 step plan to success in Bitcoin:
A Thread ..๐๐งต
September is historically a pretty bad month for
#Bitcoin
, that's just the facts.
October is historically very bullish.
But maybe, it's November that will bring the turn around we need according to our performance since the halving dates.
To be
With the recent move to 52k+ prices, some have claimed the
#Bitcoin
4-year cycle is now out of the question.
Their evidence, the .618 cycle retrace.
This retrace has marked the mid-top for each cycle, a point that comes in the middle of the cycle and brings large corrections
The
#Bitcoin
Weekly RSI shows us we are not in route for new ATHs, and have planted firmly in the Bull Market Local High Zone.
This again supports my claim that I believe Bitcoin has found a local high at 45k.
The Bull Support zone now acts as a magnet for Weekly RSI.
So if I
#Bitcoin
Blue Year is now only 12 days away (Nov 28th) according to BitTime/ The Halving Cycles Theory...
Is the bull market here?
Yes!
Orange Bear Market years only last 1 year, and we're in a white cycle which has much more steady accumulation.
Both black cycles have put in
No
#Bitcoin
cycle has ever escaped a retest of the 150% long-term holder support line.
Every cross above, including the 2020 black swan recovery retested the line as support.
This tells us according to this metric, price needs to visit around $31,300.
The main argument against
Time in the
#Bitcoin
N28CT green year is running out, and with it so is time at the best cycle buying prices.
Green year has called the bottom at 15.5k in November 2022, and predicted the best buying prices.
It also came close to its next prediction,
At the touch of 49k,
#Bitcoin
reached a very important point on the Weekly Ichimoku
The top of the red cloud.
This has marked the mid-top with very high accuracy in previous cycles, but in the event $49,100 was the high, this would have been pinpoint.
The high also came on the
The Gann Square predicts either $89,000 or $135,000 for the
#Bitcoin
top this cycle.
Using the blue 2x1 fan as the fair value line and drawing the end at Nov 28th (Havling Cycles Theory), has nailed Cycle 1 and 3 tops to precision at Gann Square level 4.
Cycle 2 did something a
When you look at all the
#Bitcoin
volume transacted since November 2020, it becomes clear why price stopped where it did.
The block of volume past $28,900 is like a massive brick wall!
On the flip side it also makes
It's time to push the limits on what's possible with
#Bitcoin
.
Introducing my latest work: The BitTime Model.
Not only is Bitcoin centered around the dates of the first and second halving (my Halving Cycles Theory), but also itself, in alternating cycles.
Tops, bottoms,
Every cycle around this time, the 5-day Fisher Transform visits the bottom zone. (Purple Arrows)
#Bitcoin
hasn't made it there yet, which likely means there is still room before price is bottomed out.
During Green and Blue Years, the indicator visits the bottom zone frequently
The
#Bitcoin
Magic Bands continue to be incredibly accurate, with now a slight rejection from Level 2.5, which we have seen in every cycle.
After breaking Level 2, our target became Level 3 now priced at $87,333.
But the ultimate target is the cycle top band at $118,362.
As
Let's call this... the
#Bitcoin
hope rally.
After a year of people screaming at you that a recession is coming, Bitcoin disproves the masses and gives some hope.
This isn't new.
We've seen this each and every cycle at the beginning of Blue Year, they told us this was coming!
People desperately want this time to be different for
#Bitcoin
, so they can get "rich" as fast as possible.
While I don't subscribe to that idea, and I remain focused on a cycle top late 2025, I wanted to show an interesting piece of data that does say something different.
#Bitcoin
has never found a solid price model that factors in diminishing returns, until now.
I give you, BitX, which explains why Bitcoin was not able to reach 100k last cycle, and why it should this cycle.
Using the Halving Cycles Theory, we can determine strict time frames to
Short-Term
#Bitcoin
holders are losing big, with their profit plummeting to lows not seen since the bear market downtrend during 2022.
At first glance, this looks like a bad thing.
Short-Term Holder Profit only drops this low at the start of a bear market... but
The move above 45k did not stick.
This puts overheated
#Bitcoin
data back in the spotlight.
Much data has suggested that Bitcoin had found its top in December at 45k, but being on longer-term time frames, they may have left some room on the table for one small push which we
The Ultimate Oscillator thinks
#Bitcoin
is at a... cycle bottom?
For the first time ever, the indicator has crossed into the cycle bottom zone outside of the bottom.
Why would you try to wait for this to go even lower?
It's clear that
It's time to adapt to the price action!
#Bitcoin
has now reached 47k, well surpassing my previous expectations that 45k was a local high.
I had that idea due to a multitude of data in favor it.
So then, is this time different?
Not yet.
You can say that after all data hits
The 2 Week Directional Movement Index tells us that a cycle top for
#Bitcoin
could be coming very soon, possibly within the next weeks to months.
This would be scheduled to be the first of 2 cycle tops, with a cross of 55.12.
The time it has taken to put in a first top after
Christmas looks to be coming early for
#Bitcoin
!
Price smashed through level 2 weeks ago, leaving 2 new targets on the table:
Level 3: $85,334
And finally the Cycle Top Band, at $115,000.
Does this mean the the magic bands say the cycle top will come at $115,000, actually...