₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い @BeenThereCap Twitter profile | Pikagi

Pikagi

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

@BeenThereCap

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Semi-retired hedge fund founder. Ex hot-shot lawyer, ex hot-shot strategy consultant. Value+macro in crypto, technology, Buffett-style old economy & commodities

Joined May 2011

Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

2 years

I nailed the GFC - saw it coming, heavily shorted into it, kept making money running net-flat for months while most were getting destroyed. Then I botched the turn, getting net short early into a monster rally and giving back more than half my fund's outperformance. 1/4

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

2 months

In the last 24 hours, two of our leading media sources (NYT & WSJ) have produced research pieces with hard data on why the U.S. should ban TikTok. Here is the NYT's killer chart. Tiktok systematically censors 80-99% of posts on certain viewpoints, relative to Instagram. 1/3

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@BeenThereCap

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2 months

The worst problem is not censorship, but rather actively promoting propaganda. The WSJ covered that. Here are charts showing the evolution of Gaza/Israel content on test accounts. The key fact is: those videos ran 4:1 against Israel. 2/3

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@BeenThereCap

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2 months

Another key fact: The U.S. has had laws banning foreign ownership of TV stations & networks since the birth of TV. Most countries have similar laws. I was a constitutional litigator and am usually a 10 out of 10 on First Amendment absolutism. This is not a difficult question 3/3

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

2 years

I am an ex-hot-shot-litigator. I can read the $TWTR docs and know how these things play out in real life. Elon has successfully violated legal constraints without real consequences for his entire career. It has made him overly bold. This is the one he will finally probably lose…

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

2 months

Links: The NYT chart was in its daily round-up email. The research source for the NYT chart: WSJ: Some background on foreign ownership laws:

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

4 months

I created and posted this 4 months ago. Gonna need a bigger hallway.

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

2 years

Nice homebuilding tidbit from @hkuppy , shared with his permission. LOL. “Had drinks last night with someone senior at one of the top 10 national builders. As he put it, things slowed dramatically in April/May. Currently, they only have 5 buyers for each home, instead of 25.”

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

2 years

This is the best "favorable homebuilding supply/demand trends" chart I have seen in 12 years of looking at them. I dare anyone to look at this chart and keep making analogies to 2006-09.

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

2 years

Here are some pictures worth thousands of words.

@Sci_Phile

Kyle Hill

2 years

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

2 months

@Mike59655549 I agree, Instagram is not the unquestionably correct baseline. But it is the probably the only baseline we have. Even more: I am willing to accept, based on everything I know qualitatively, that it actually is a fairly good baseline.

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

2 years

You will probably not be able to predict the turn; you may not even know in the moment that it has come. In March'09, Bernanke's "green shoots" comment and an internal Citibank "things are OK" memo seemed like ridiculously thin catalysts to launch the real bull market. 4/4

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

2 years

I vividly remember the one sentence of advice I should have heeded but ignored in Feb'2009, when the S&P 500 was at 750-800, weeks before bottoming at 666: "I don't know which direction the next 100 points on the S&P will be, but I do know for the next 1,000 points." 2/4

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

4 months

Here's the most important thing I can say about #uranium stocks: Lots of bearish or uncertain posts over the last month, simply because prices fell a bit. Narrative is chasing price. WTF are people thinking??! Get your heads out of the short-term weeds. 1/5

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

2 years

…if and only if the $TWTR board maintains its spine. Until yesterday I had assumed the board would cave. But now it appears Elon has overreached. He may have backed the board into a corner so tightly that they will fight and then keep fighting.

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

2 years

I cannot overstress how terribly the end of the $TWTR v. Musk hearing, covering Musk's failure to produce some of his Signal & SMS texts, went for Musk. Speculating on whether the judge will formally order an "adverse inference" at trial on factual issues misses the point. 1/

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

2 years

The setup now is not as extreme as 2009, but it's the closest we've been since then. You must position to surve a further big market drop, because it's possible. But (1) it's not probable, and (2) it would end. You should also position to make lots of $$ when the turn comes. 3/4

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

2 years

@hkuppy helped get me into $STNG years ago and back into uranium last year. I helped get him back into homebuilding-related stocks. We both now have the homebuilding thesis as our #1 largest equities exposure. He just wrote another good explanation of why.

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

6 months

Sending missiles at container ships but not tankers is a sneakily smart move by Iran's proxies. All the major container shippers have ceased sailing through the Suez; they have to go around Africa instead. Container ships move manufactured goods from where they are made... 1/4

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

1 year

I'm with @hkuppy on uranium, in both direction & amount: Never before have I seen industry fundamentals exceed my initial bullish expectations so much in the ~year following my purchase. Yet uranium stocks were flat in 2022 and are up only ~14% in January.

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Understanding Inflecting Trends: Insights and Analysis

Inflecting trends are critical to understanding market shifts and opportunities. Dive into our detailed analysis to stay informed and prepared.

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

2 years

If you want to understand this situation, @matt_levine , another ex-lawyer, is the only one you need to read. @compound248 a strong #2 .

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

6 months

After reading the $SAVE / $JBLU post-trial filings, I was hoping Mr. Market would let me buy a few more shares in early January near $15. Now he has, and I have. Everyone with a publicly-shared view has said the filings were favorable for $SAVE. 1/9

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

9 months

I'm calling it: I'm now as bullish stocks as I've been in 50 weeks. (I nailed the bottom last October.) *Small-caps back near lows *Many valuations good again *Sentiment back to bearish *Fed signalling no more hikes Stocks can do well if macro is merely less bad than feared. 1/2

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

8 months

The EV market will be stagnant and disappoint expectations for the next 5 years. Existing battery technology leaves range anxiety, inadequate charging networks, and dying battery packs as real issues. Car makers are running out of early-adopter buyers who don't care. 1/4

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

4 months

I have read so much #uranium commentary & analysis in 2021-2024; it's rare to see something new. This tidbit from $CCJ's Grant Isaac yesterday is good, segmenting utility buyers. More demand is coming. We are nowhere near above-replacement buying, which is when #uranium moons.

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

2 months

A true story about me and $XPO: A long, long time ago, $XPO was my fund's largest holding. Back then it was a tiny little trucking and 3PL business located in a tiny little town. But it was exquisitely run, with an A+ management team for a business that size. 1/x

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

7 months

Now that so many of my favorite stocks (i.e., large positions) have ripped 20-30% higher in 2 weeks, what is my new favorite stock? That's easy. It isn't even close. $SAVE. It has fallen 40% in 2 weeks (from $16 to $9.50), despite only modest changes to its expected outcomes. 1/9

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

2 years

My friend @John_Hempton asked today in a specific case, how much incremental money is required to cause a big one-day price jump on heavy volume? This is one of my intellectual pet peeves in investing. Over many years, 98% of the comments I see related to this issue are wrong.

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@BeenThereCap

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1 month

My current odds on scenarios, in declining order of cynicism: 1. 30% - Keith Gill sold his Roaring Kitty account on X for 8-9 figures. 2. 50% - Keith Gill spent months devising a plan to buy a ton of calls and tweet his way to a 8-9 figure trading profit with no SEC risk.

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

1 year

I have been following $AAPL as a professional investment analyst for a long time. Here are my personal anecdotes on how clueless we all were, before it happened, about the rise of smartphones and of $AAPL as a software business. 1/8

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

4 months

For 2 years I kept seeing $SNAP down 15-30% every earnings release and thinking "surely this can't continue for more quarters, traders will wise up and price it in." Nope.

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

7 months

An ode to my genius partner from my hedge-fund-running days, whose only 4 buy suggestions in 2013 comprise one of the best quadfectas in investing history. 1. Bitcoin at $35 2. $TLSA at $3.50 (split-adjusted) 3. $XRO.AX at $7 4. Pre-IPO Uber stock at a $5 billion valuation 1/7

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

7 months

$SAVE is +50% in the 2 weeks since my triple-down trade and public table-pounding. I am not selling any. I'm playing for +200% ($30). The last 2 weeks of trial testimony was excellent for both $SAVE's antitrust case and its (low) risk that $JBLU successfully recuts the deal.

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

7 months

Now that so many of my favorite stocks (i.e., large positions) have ripped 20-30% higher in 2 weeks, what is my new favorite stock? That's easy. It isn't even close. $SAVE. It has fallen 40% in 2 weeks (from $16 to $9.50), despite only modest changes to its expected outcomes. 1/9

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

2 years

Excellent find by @hkuppy on new-home affordability at today's prices and mortgage rates. It is obvious that national avg's are misleading, skewed by high prices in ~10 coastal metros w/ few homes built. Here is every # you'd want on that issue, and more.

The Big Long? A Deep Dive on U.S. Housing (Part 5)

Part 5 – Affordability

vosscapital.substack.com

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

9 months

Wow, I am having my fourth "this price is stupid, buy" moment in 2 weeks. This time on something I have never owned before but know extremely well: $PLNT, Planet Fitness. Look at this horrendous chart. It's a buy today, finally, on big news. I just bought in the low $51's. 1/6

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@BeenThereCap

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4 months

$VAL: "We're doubling our buyback authorization and we'll use it." Not much other news Stock +5% $TNK: "We'll be debt-free in a month but won't discuss what we'll do with all our cash." Not much other news Stock -7% Investors *really* don't trust these managements. Justifiably.

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

1 year

@compound248 @buccocapital U R just mad you haven't found a big whistle to blow, and U didn't buy Pepe coin.

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

2 years

6 months ago @Josh_Young_1 started flagging how Europe's sky-high energy costs relative to elsewhere would chase industrial production out of Europe & into US. I said "sure but it will start very small & will take years. It's too soon to matter." I was wrong, it took 6 months.

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

1 month

It is a surreal experience to see all my shitco shorts up 3-4% premarket and know that those moves might be "correct" based solely on meme-stock OG - who was 100% WRONG about his big stock bet over even the medium term - posting an image of him sitting forward in his chair.

@TheRoaringKitty

Roaring Kitty

@TheRoaringKitty

1 month

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

3 months

$CLMT has been off my favorite-stocks list for a while. At $13.70, it's back to #3 (after $VTY and $XPOF). It's worth ~$40. The C-corp conversion, first clean quarter of renewable-diesel earnings, and RD spin-out are all imminent. I just bought more.

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

7 months

This podcast is a must-watch for anyone trading $SAVE, probably even if you subscribe to MDC's trial notes service. I was a tippy-top-tier antitrust litigator back in the day. Andrew and Michael nail the key antitrust analysis points here. Highlights: 1/5

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MDC Financial Research's Michael Cohen post-closing arguments update on $JBLU / $SAVE merger trial...

Michael D. Cohen, CEO & Director of Research at MDC Financial Research, LLC, joins the podcast for the second time (see his first appearance, a half-time report on the SAVE trial, here) to share his...

www.yetanothervalueblog.com

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

2 years

Side note: Thanks as always to @chancery_daily for the 178-tweet live-summary. Because that multi-hour discovery pissing match sounded like one of the most painful court hearings to live through that I've encountered, including when I was litigating. 5/5

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@BeenThereCap

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1 year

Bloomberg's @JavierBlas and others are surprised that the Saudis are willing to voluntarily cut their production to 9m bbl/day, a 10-year low. I'm not surprised. I'm guessing the Saudis, like me, believe that leaving more oil in the ground has its highest ROI in >10 years. 1/6

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

5 months

Plug Power $PLUG is a wondrous shitco stock promote. IPO'd in late 1999. Simply outstanding story-selling work by its management across 24 years. Here is $PLUG's average share count over the last 10 years. One can never sell too much stock, right? (All #s in millions): 1/8

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

2 years

Also, great extensive detail here from @YetAnotherValue on why the board would probably win in court.

Twitter: the circus will have a happy ending

Mark Zuckerberg once called Twitter the clown car that fell into a gold mine. I’ve been laughing internally at that description recently, because Twitter’s deal with Elon Musk has moved them fully...

www.yetanothervalueblog.com

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

7 months

Kirby likely privately agrees with me that actual odds are now up to 75-80%. I used to get paid (as a litigator) to give case odds to clients. Incentives almost always favor being deeply overconservative. "60%" = "I think they'll win but don't want to look stupid if they lose."

@David_Slotnick

David Slotnick

@David_Slotnick

7 months

United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby thinks it’s a 60-40 chance that the JetBlue-Spirit merger closes, he says. Kirby tells me he isn’t worried about the potential newly merged competitor: “I think we’re going to win no matter what.”

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

2 years

The 1-month fall in all commodities prices is now the 3rd largest in 90 years, behind only the Covid and GFC collapses. This goes well beyond fundamentals: Crowded-trade unwind, cross-ownership contagion, forced deleveraging, and trend-following in an illiquid summer market.

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@BeenThereCap

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5 months

Well, $SAVE sucked. I warned you in every thread: Even good judges (like Judge Young) routinely decide even strong cases (like this one became by the end) the wrong way. Even those situations really are like throwing a 5-sided die and getting the 1 side that says "YOU LOSE." 1/3

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

5 months

The pain of not making the expected $17/share on $SAVE continues to outweigh the relief of being able to exit with only a $5 loss. Bad mood all day. Mrs. BeenThereCap, who knows the full story, just now: Look of fake sympathy Pats me on the shoulder "You could have been richer"

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

4 months

@conorsen Your ex-antitrust-lawyer says: No. The homebuilding industry is not remotely an oligopoly. Waaaaaaaaaay too many builders in most geographies to successfully pull off this strategy. The shortage was caused by, first, the 2007-2012 bust, and then the Echo-Boomer buying bulge.

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

1 year

The $PACW situation is bonkers. Based on their 1Q release last week and this press release last night, PACW was absolutely fine as of yesterday - until the erroneously dire Bloomberg story came out. 1/2

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@BeenThereCap

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7 months

OK let's condense all the new $SAVE $JBLU trial events & insights into a new outcome tree. Here are the key changes: 1. The tree has sprung several new required deal-recut branches because of the judge's repeated comments on partial injunctions. 1/5

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

2 years

Someone notes I said "probably." Lawsuit outcomes are NEVER certain. Only twice in 30 years have I set outcome odds as high as 90%. On one of those, the court ruled the other way.

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

2 months

Replies correctly note that both pieces of research I flagged are from months ago; the research merely received new play this week thanks to the TikTok legislation.

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

1 year

Let's riff on this theme some more: $SD shareholders effectively own a fund that's 50% zero-coupon 5% short-term bonds & 50% a super-cheap oil & gas producer; the manager might sell bonds & buy more oil & gas if he gets a good price; *and the manager reports to Carl Icahn.* 👍

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

5 months

I have had 3 massively profitable multi-year homebuilding trades in 20 years based on simple, obvious-if-you-look, high-level industry insights. The trades work so well because most investors ignore or underweight these big multi-year trends. 1/6

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

4 months

Sprott physical trust's discount to NAV doubles as an effective index of #uranium investor sentiment. Here is the chart, through yesterday. It's down to -15% today. Extreme bearishness, reached on only 4 other days in last 2 years. For absolutely no fundamental-based reason.

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

7 months

We are on the edge of witnessing the greatest oil trade of this century. As much as can be done trading 180 million physical barrels via RFPs (vs. flipping exchange-traded futures), they nailed the top, when it mattered most strategically, and now may be be nailing the bottom.

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

6 months

When prices are this low, #natgas traders should change their primary mental model from odds of the next move’s direction, to the potential sizes of the moves. That’s because the payoff asymmetry is now enormous. 1/4

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

6 months

My primary oil thesis is that global demand will remain robust for years. Emerging countries' demand will keep growing as they grow wealthier; DM demand will stay robust b/c renewables will take many years to dent it. I've posted supporting details for 2 years. 1/6

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

7 months

I am so glad that $JBLU & $SAVE called this United exec as a witness to talk about United's stealth ULCC. He testified 12% of United's seats are now Basic Economy, which *is* a ULCC. (Matches Spirit's pricing, no carry-on, no seat assignment, you *will* get a middle seat.) 1/4

@g_1738_

Gman

7 months

$SAVE JetBlue started off by calling Andrew Nocella to the stand. He is the Chief Commercial Officer for United Airlines. He handles what type of aircraft they fly, where they fly, and almost anything revenue related. They started by asking a bit about him and his past, then…

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

5 months

$TSLA should be -10% on the $HTZ news. The owner of 60,000 EVs, after living with them for 2 years, announced that they suck and it's giving up on them. Customers don't want them, damage expenses are sky-high, charging options are inadequate, they don't hold their value.

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

2 years

@elonmusk The best scene from Borat wasn't in the movie, it was in the DVD extras.

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Borat Buying Cheese

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

4 months

Then $CCJ's profits will launch higher, sustainably. I own it. If Mr. Market is too stupid to credit $CCJ's years 3-20, the way it does for most stocks, I can wait. Similar thinking should work for all #uranium stocks. So chill out, sit on what you own, and enjoy 2024. 5/5

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

2 months

Except, something just made me look at $XPO's stock chart for the first time in years. Holy mother of God. This was our fund's largest position. I could have just held it and gone to the beach for the last 13 years. Proof yet again that you never know, in either direction. 7/7

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

2 years

The judge handling discovery is also the finder of fact at trial. She can, and almost certainly will, make at least partial inferences against Musk without the need for a formal discovery sanction. For that reason, she tactically _shouldn't_ order the formal sanction. 2/

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

8 months

My early $SAVE / $JBLU trial reactions: JetBlue's cross of Spirit's CEO is *very* strong. Keys: DOJ has been repeatedly flagging Spirit's initial resistance to a JetBlue deal based on antitrust concerns. CEO makes clear, with specific examples in support, that... 1/x

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

3 months

I have sold all my $SD and redeployed it all into $VAL. I have endured ~2 years of management sitting on a giant (for them) cash pile and talking about the "optionality" of not deploying it - including through a -80% #natgas downturn when M&A prices were lower. 1/2

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

4 months

Here is some new stock-picking alpha for you: My most recent stock buy was $XPOF. I have >10 years investing in fitness studio/gym businesses. I am X's current "axe" on $PLNT. I am best friends with and discuss investments with, IMO, the country's best fitness-chain CEO. 1/7

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

4 months

(P.S. I you're finding this thread without following me, I own $SRUUF, $CCJ, $KAP, $URNM, and $URNJ. I.e., I directly or indirectly own at least a bit of every producer worth mentioning, with a minimum of work or angst.)

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

1 year

Silicon Valley Bank's closest peer is probably $FRC. Today $FRC's stock opened -25%, fell to -40%, rose to 0%, and was just halted at -24%. I regularly watched these sorts of moves in late 2008. I haven't seen anything close to it since then.

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

2 years

Based on what we've seen already, she'll have plenty of other reasons to list for deciding against Musk on the key issues. The real key is that, substantively, Musk's production failures & probable lying about using Signal are deserving of some inferences. 4/

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

7 months

$SAVE is being traded this morning by litigation noobs. When a decades-tenured judge tells you at the beginning of arguments that his questions won't indicate his likely decision, he means it.

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

1 year

An open tweet-letter to the management of SandRidge Energy $SD: I am a long-term $SD shareholder with a long-term focus. I like your strategy of holding your cash for potential acquisitions. I like that you set the bar high for approving specific deals. 1/7

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

1 year

Here's the oil & gas sector average free cash flow yield over time. These are the large caps. Small caps are much more undervalued. My holdings have 20-40% yields. Oil & gas equity valuations might never increase. They don't need to for the stocks to generate high returns.

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

7 months

Friends don't let friends buy SPACs of pre-revenue tech start-ups, even if they are nuclear power. $SMR is -25% after-hours on news that its only credible committed customer cancelled. -50% in 3 weeks, -80% in a year. 10 months of cash at current burn rate, no revenues in sight.

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

7 months

Here's why I got especially bullish (and long) oil #oott last week & today: 1. The recent fall from $93 to $74 seemed unjustified, driven by overly bullish positioning (longs got offsides) and by... 2. ...bearish gov't inventory reports. Those reports are likely erroneous. 1/4

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

2 months

Mrs. BeenThereCap has now seen the chart and adds: “The moral of the story is, you suck.”

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

2 months

Although I hate $CCJ's self-congratulatory earnings calls, I am at a loss for why the stock is -7% today. Every single negative I've seen is years-old news to anyone who's paid attention. 1/3

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

1 year

@AutismCapital Apparently someone at Rent-A-Center just got around to watching Parks & Recreation Season 5?

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

2 years

Keeping it informal avoids an issue for Musk to appeal; lets her more finely calibrate her inferences based on the context at trial and the specific factual issues; and lets her do it silently if she wants (i.e. doesn't need to mention adverse inference in the opinion). 3/

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

8 months

$SAVE stock is priced like the $JBLU acquisition very likely *won't* close (and $SAVE will go to zero). $JBLU stock is priced like it very likely *will* close (and $JBLU will take on a heavy debt load into a downturn). Rampant and mutually-contradictory fear today on both sides.

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

2 months

Now that the ban of Russian #uranium imports is becoming law, is there anything left for bulls to hope for, or do we just sit around for the next 5 years watching prices rise? On the demand side, almost everything good that could happen, has happened. All I see left is: 1/4

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

2 months

I just heard Danny Kahneman say the following: “People read my book [Thinking Fast & Slow] thinking it will help them reduce their cognitive biases. I *wrote* it, and it hasn’t helped me. I am one of the worst offenders. These things are very powerful and ingrained.”

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

5 months

Adam & Andrew didn't mention the $VTY buybacks until an hour into the podcast! Guys! If you didn't get that far: This stock is massively undervalued AND MGMT IS COMMITTED TO BUYING BACK ~£1B OF SHARES IN ~2 YEARS. That's 1/3 of shares, if the price doesn't rise. Which it will.

@YetAnotherValue

Yet Another Value Empire

@YetAnotherValue

5 months

Podcast #217 is up! David Capital Partner's Adam Patinkin thesis on asset light house builder, Vistry $VTY

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

2 years

@hkuppy

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

2 years

Dear #uranium twit, Uranium stocks are speculative assets. Current earnings are -ve for every producer except KAP (+ve) and CCJ ($0). The good times are in the future. When markets dump, speculative assets dump harder. It doesn’t matter if your thesis is right. That is the rule.

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

2 years

(BTW "I was wrong" = @Josh_Young_1 was right, 6 months before most others, again. 6 months seems to be his average. Natgas rebalance, OPEC+ capacity, DUC depletion...)

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

1 year

Coincidentally @hkuppy , who thinks like me in some important ways, just posted this yesterday. It's time, he says, to admit the outlook is now harder and cut back. I haven't decided what to do. It's likely the year's most important investing decision 8/8

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I Just Don't Know... - Praetorian Capital

Long-time readers of this site know that I prefer an investing style that is both highly-concentrated and hyper-aggressive. My only goal is to maximize returns over rolling three-year periods.

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

7 months

I called it. $SAVE's lawyer is hammering away on the effect of Basic Economy offerings from United and American.

@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

7 months

$JBLU's lawyers wrote a fantastic pretrial brief - except, now, for this one thing. If they had this witness lined up, why didn't they mention United in the brief?? They should have been hammering this point. I bet they will in the closing argument and post-trial brief. 4/4

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

16 days

People, why is this hard for you? What Roaring Kitty did (or perhaps the buyer of his account) 100% is "stock price manipulation." But it is, IMHO as an ex hot-shot lawyer (including securities litigation), perfectly legal manipulation. If the SEC sued, 90% odds it would lose.

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

7 months

One other observation from the $SAVE / $JBLU trial, which is just as important as the testimony. The few judge comments & questions I've seen over the weeks suggest that the judge is favorably disposed to all 3 of $JBLU's key arguments: 1/3

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

4 months

Although the CPI miss was largely caused by a suspiciously high shelter number, the ex-shelter CPI was even worse. This report is unredeemably bad.

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

2 years

Some of my favorite pithy bits of wisdom: "If there is any one secret of success, it lies in the ability to get the other person's point of view and see things from that person's angle as well as from your own." (Henry Ford) "Ask more questions. Smile more often." (my mentor)

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

1 month

$XPOF: Your uncertainty is my opportunity. $XPOF crashed 30% on Friday because it announced the U.S. attorney is investigating misstatements and the board had fired its CEO. I bought more Friday at $7.50-7.60. I bought more today at $7.50-7.60. Here's why. 1/10

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

6 months

First free alpha of 2024! $VTY is my favorite stock for 2024 and #2 largest stock position. I have known it well for years. ( #1 is a 6-bagger, I wouldn't buy that much.) You should listen to this podcast. Adam always does an outstanding job of laying out his investing theses.

@AndrewRangeley

Andrew Walker

@AndrewRangeley

6 months

Excited to start the (podcasting) year strong with my friend Adam Patinkin coming on to discuss $VTY (Vistry in London). Any questions for Adam?

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

2 years

1Q report #3 from "stocks I own at 1x-6x earnings": $LGIH, the best US homebuilder from an owner's perspective. 5x earnings. 2022 guidance maintained for closings volume, raised 5% for ASPs and therefore revenues, raised margins. I'm raising my EPS estimate by 10% (to +12% YoY).

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

11 months

Turning to #uranium : Cameco $CCJ today is breaking past this cycle's closing high (a month ago) of $32. Look at the 10-year chart. Without exaggeration, this is the choppiest chart I've ever seen for a stock that's clearly on a longer-term uptrend. You're all a bunch of degens.

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

4 months

Over *any* recent time period - a week, a month, 3-6-12 months - the outlook for #uranium demand has been unchanged at worst and has usually improved. Same for supply. Over the last month, the demand outlook is unchanged and the supply outlook is *greatly* improved. 2/5

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@BeenThereCap

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

10 months

I watched Sea Ltd. $SE, a real internet business owned by big, serious growth investors, get ramped to the moon not only on multiple expansion, but also widespread expectations that every uncertain thing in its future would go exactly right. It didn't. 1/2

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