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LeftHandedOctopus

@AggieCapitalist

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Value-Oriented Special Situations™

Houston
Joined January 2010
Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.
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@AggieCapitalist
LeftHandedOctopus
6 months
ICYMI $RCM
@CapitalVoss
Voss Capital
6 months
Here is a new investment memo on a high conviction long idea $RCM.
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@AggieCapitalist
LeftHandedOctopus
1 year
$TSLA just went from "20x forward EPS" to >50x in 3 weeks.
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@AggieCapitalist
LeftHandedOctopus
2 years
Interesting from Bloomberg Intelligence... S&P 500 PE gone from 31.6x a year ago to 16.3x (trailing) currently. Equivalent multiple compression took >3 years in internet bubble burst. Now 17% of the SP500 trades at single digit fwd PE (was 33% at bottom in March 20 and 24% Q4 18)
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LeftHandedOctopus
10 months
$CROX's buyback is ~17% of the shares out here. It's at an 11% FCF yield with mgmt (very credible) guiding to a 22% FCF CAGR next 3-years. They're growing core Crocs brand in every region and growth in Asia = +47% LTM. Insiders buying.
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LeftHandedOctopus
2 years
Quite the paradox of the market. If you think we will have a recession, sell the stocks at 2x FCF (materials cos, energy, steel stocks, etc.) and buy perennial cash incinerators at 5x+ revenue (ARKK as proxy).
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LeftHandedOctopus
1 year
Small cap value (taking positive earners only) is 15% cheaper now on an earnings basis than it was at the end of 2008. 9.85x 2022E earnings vs 11.6x then. Crazy. Price/Operating Cash Flow got down to 6.6x end of 2008, we're currently at 7.3x using 2023 estimates.
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LeftHandedOctopus
2 years
"In my 30 year career, I've never seen real estate fundamentals, in the sectors where we are focused, as strong as they are today." Jonathan Gray, CEO of $BX a few weeks ago. Largest focus recently has been single family rental.
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LeftHandedOctopus
1 month
Is the $TSLA price reaction the dumbest/most inefficient reaction to corporate news in capital markets history? +$100B added for licensing maps from Baidu, when FSD dominance globally was long ago priced in. Tesla China registrations running -50% y/y.
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LeftHandedOctopus
9 months
$CROX now at a 14.2% FCF yield on 2024 estimates. FCF estimates are higher now than when the stock was a $180. Buyback authorization is also now equal to >18.5% of shares outstanding.
@AggieCapitalist
LeftHandedOctopus
10 months
$CROX's buyback is ~17% of the shares out here. It's at an 11% FCF yield with mgmt (very credible) guiding to a 22% FCF CAGR next 3-years. They're growing core Crocs brand in every region and growth in Asia = +47% LTM. Insiders buying.
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LeftHandedOctopus
4 months
"Fed's Powell: 75 basis point rate hike not being 'actively considered'" 5/4/22 "Fed hikes its benchmark interest rate by 0.75 percentage points" 6/15/22 Stop listening to/caring about what the Fed says.
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LeftHandedOctopus
15 days
$SWI....cheapest software stock over $1B. Likely being shopped soon. 90%+ upside to 14x FCF.
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LeftHandedOctopus
24 days
“The EV recession is so bad that even Elon is getting out of the business.” - Jonas at MS conference $TSLA
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@AggieCapitalist
LeftHandedOctopus
11 months
LEON COOPERMAN: “I’m eighty years old. I’m in capital preservation mode. I’m not as engaged as I used to be, though I do have an opinion and the opinions are the opinion of a long-term investor. I think the market is over-valued, but the market is extremely bifurcated. You have
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@AggieCapitalist
LeftHandedOctopus
3 years
Corporate leverage in the late 80s was wild.
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@AggieCapitalist
LeftHandedOctopus
15 days
$RTO...100% upside just from reverting to its own historical valuation.
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@AggieCapitalist
LeftHandedOctopus
1 month
Why are we normalizing/encouraging psychopathy in financial media? For the love of god stop inviting this woman on. $14B incinerated and counting.
@Barchart
Barchart
1 month
Robotaxis will generate 8-10 Trillion in revenues in 2030, half of which will go to platforms like Tesla $TSLA says Cathie Wood
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LeftHandedOctopus
5 months
"Sales of Tesla cars in Germany, home to its only European manufacturing plant, plunged a breathtaking 77% in December year on year according to government data" $TSLA
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@AggieCapitalist
LeftHandedOctopus
6 months
Buy complexity, confusion, uncertainty, and apathy at a discount. Sell clarity, simplicity, and exuberance at a premium.
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LeftHandedOctopus
2 years
Disagree with this. For 15 years I believed this, but our ROI has been almost 4x higher in mid caps than micro caps over a 10 year period (40% CAGR versus low DD) Market equally inefficient up the mkt cap ladder.
@MicroCapClub
MicroCapClub
2 years
Buffett, Lynch, Greenblatt, they all started in microcap for a reason. It's the only place in the public markets where an astute investor managing a small sum has a structural advantage over institutions.
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LeftHandedOctopus
7 months
Right now small cap indices are lower than they were 63 months ago. Using monthly closing prices, small caps were only lower on a rolling 6-yr basis in 2 months in all of history, Sep. 2011 and Mar. 2020 (Feb. 03 = up marginally). Subsequent 12, 24, 36-mo returns were v strong.
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LeftHandedOctopus
9 months
We (Voss) have established our largest position ever by cost (~13-15% of portfolio at cost so far across different funds). Will reveal in Q3 letter in ~3 weeks. So many stocks at all time low valuations (with upward revisions). This market is pretty juicy beneath the covers.
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LeftHandedOctopus
4 months
Within the $IWM, Value factor -9% YTD and Momentum +8%...quite the spread for 5-6 weeks.
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LeftHandedOctopus
2 years
Large private homebuilder JPM hosted a call with today: "Every week we expect to see a slow down in demand but just haven't seen it yet." "I would have thought at 5% we would have seen a slowdown.. I'm a little bit surprised." Up, up, up.
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LeftHandedOctopus
9 months
I think we rip from here as soon as rate hysteria/myopia abates. Inflation expectations moving down while GDP growth rate assumptions have doubled in the last 3mos & that's why rates are rising. Equal wtd S&P PE lowest since at least '10, 10% cheaper than '11 w/ revisions surging
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LeftHandedOctopus
9 months
Small caps just melting down on no volume here. Everything "cyclical" kind of back to 6x earnings.
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@AggieCapitalist
LeftHandedOctopus
2 years
That now makes $BX, $KKR, and $BAM (not to mention Thoma Bravo) all stating that they're focusing on public-to-private buyouts and public markets are the most interesting area to focus on right now. Explosion of M&A continuing/coming Q4, IMO.
@AggieCapitalist
LeftHandedOctopus
2 years
“There cannot be a better time to be a value investor,” Anuj Ranjan, MD at $BAM. “Public markets are not valuing businesses the way that private markets are,” Ranjan said. “Today, I think private sponsors should be doing more public-to-privates. I concur. $GFF
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LeftHandedOctopus
10 months
Voss gets a shout out from industry legend Britt Harris at the 41 min mark for having "the best investment track record he is aware of." He also calls me out for having the worst grades of any of the 800+ in the history of the Titans of Investing program
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LeftHandedOctopus
2 months
Software stocks are near the 10 year low multiple on EV/NTM Gross Profit (Median). Who is the next M&A target? h/t @jonrice80
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LeftHandedOctopus
11 months
the first quartile of the S&P trading at 35x earnings, not my territory… and the bottom quartile of the S&P is 9x earnings. And I think 9x earnings at 3.75% 10-year government bond rate, there’s a lot of stocks I find that I want to own."
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@AggieCapitalist
LeftHandedOctopus
9 months
Equal wtd SP500 index fwd PE ratio is the lowest since at least 2010 here at 14.8x 2024 Ests R2K Value is at 9.5x trailing & 10.7x 2024 ests (~15x LT avg), on par w/ 2008 average valuations. Really need earnings to collapse here or interest to skyrocket to justify valuations.
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@AggieCapitalist
LeftHandedOctopus
4 years
You can fool some people all of the time and those are the ones you want to concentrate on. - Elon Musk
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@AggieCapitalist
LeftHandedOctopus
4 months
The bubble is not FANG (other than $TSLA, which will have negative growth & negative FCF as soon as this Q and is ~90% overvalued, IMO) ...the bubble is in the 2nd and 3rd tier (mostly) tech names (that are mostly still unprofitable) at 10-20x revenue, not GOOGL at 23x earnings
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@AggieCapitalist
LeftHandedOctopus
15 days
$GENI 110% upside to 12x 2026 EBITDA (will be doing a 40% EBITDA CAGR and 30% EBITDA margins)
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@AggieCapitalist
LeftHandedOctopus
2 years
This shows rolling 10 Year US Housing Starts (Single Family + Manufactured Housing) relative to rolling 10-year household formation.
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@AggieCapitalist
LeftHandedOctopus
2 years
@DouglasDowellJD That data is not correct.
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@AggieCapitalist
LeftHandedOctopus
9 months
From Wedbust on $CROX this AM. Crox is the cheapest branded apparel/footwear stock in the public market despite having perhaps the highest margins & rapidly taking market share. Giving core Crocs the same multiple as no-growth, lower margin Uggs means HeyDude is valued at 1x.
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@AggieCapitalist
LeftHandedOctopus
5 months
$CROX...cheapest branded apparel/footwear company in public markets and the highest operating margins by far.
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@AggieCapitalist
LeftHandedOctopus
9 months
My $CROX tweets get up to 200x the engagement as some of my others How does it seem so loved by FinTwit yet so hated by the market overall? I am using its all-time-high FCF yield as a proxy for it being so out of favor...was only higher in the 1H 09 panic +inventory flush.
@AggieCapitalist
LeftHandedOctopus
9 months
$CROX now at a 14.2% FCF yield on 2024 estimates. FCF estimates are higher now than when the stock was a $180. Buyback authorization is also now equal to >18.5% of shares outstanding.
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@AggieCapitalist
LeftHandedOctopus
8 months
🫣 Median Small Cap Drawdown. Only worse in modern times during the worst of the GFC and very briefly around the Covid lockdown announcement. This combined with record wide spread b/w QQQ/IWN and IWN at ~9x earnings...
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@AggieCapitalist
LeftHandedOctopus
4 months
It's going to be a good year for building products and lumber distributors...
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@AggieCapitalist
LeftHandedOctopus
10 months
The Russell 2000 Value Index is up only 12% since the end of 2017. Earnings next year expected to be up 166% from 2017 levels.
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@AggieCapitalist
LeftHandedOctopus
9 months
Birkenstock is the only shoe company that comes close to $CROX EBIT margins.
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@AggieCapitalist
LeftHandedOctopus
3 years
It will come as no surprise to FinTwit, but small cap tech stocks are in a nasty bear mkt, with the avg stock -43% from 52-wk high. Micro cap tech stocks? -64% from their respective highs, on avg. From @jonrice80 in our Q3 letter:
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LeftHandedOctopus
4 months
Hundreds of stocks look like bubbles here. Even with higher rates and slower growth, a large swath under the covers is at >2021 valuation levels. Lots of ho-hum biz at 50x+ earnings or 10-20x revenue. Seems we are still setting up for the greatest speculative mania of all time.
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LeftHandedOctopus
4 months
It seems like we are going back into 2021/1999 bubble mode. Tech already vertical/parabolic, pullbacks non existent, mediocre businesses at 40-100x earnings, etc.
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LeftHandedOctopus
11 months
Home builders now offer 28% of all the homes available to buy in the country, versus a historical norm of 13%. Source: John Burns Research
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@AggieCapitalist
LeftHandedOctopus
1 year
"Germany won't survive winter" ....DAX up 40% in 3.5 months.
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@AggieCapitalist
LeftHandedOctopus
2 months
The fact that $TSLA is only down ~5% on a mid-teens top line miss for something valued higher than internet stocks at the peak of the internet bubble seems like a gift to either get out or short. Going back into major cash burn mode and neg. rev growth will accelerate to downside
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@AggieCapitalist
LeftHandedOctopus
4 months
...a +26% rally in a straight line in the momentum factor since Jan 2nd.
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@AggieCapitalist
LeftHandedOctopus
2 years
Unpopular opinion: given that the val'n dispersion is *still* the widest in history & most expensive decile of stocks is still the same as the peak of the internet bubble & there is extreme skepticism of cyclicals at 2-3x earnings/FCF, the value/growth rotation in early innings.
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LeftHandedOctopus
2 months
$IWM has pulled back 10% (including futures after hours) just since April 1st. This after a 9% correction to start the year. Small cap beatings will continue until morale improves.
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LeftHandedOctopus
2 years
There has only been a few weeks in all of modern history where retail investors have been more bearish on equities than they are currently. 1990 and March 2009.
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LeftHandedOctopus
7 months
@GameofTrades_ look at the absolute level of where it started. still needs to rise from 2.7% to 4%+ just to get to the starting point of the mid-2000s level.
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LeftHandedOctopus
5 months
I still see tons of stocks at >10x sales that are unprofitable and tons of high quality names at 8x FCF or less. Depedning on what pockets you look at it either looks like 2H21 or 2Q20.
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@AggieCapitalist
LeftHandedOctopus
5 months
$MARA shares outstanding... a 144% CAGR since Q1 2020. Impressive.
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@AggieCapitalist
LeftHandedOctopus
15 days
$IMXI 100% upside over the next 18 months if it just goes to 10x EPS.
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@AggieCapitalist
LeftHandedOctopus
9 months
You can throw a dart at the stock quote section of a newspaper & hit a 15% FCF yield, yet majority of retail investors keep piling into negative growth, collapsing margin $TSLA at 100x earnings. Incredible. This is why the small cap/large cap spread is at an all-time high.
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LeftHandedOctopus
2 years
According to Zonda polls, there are ~6M Millennials trying to buy a home TODAY-compare to active listed inventory at 250k. This is why each listed home is receiving an avg of 4 offers & ~80% of homes are being sold within 1-mo of listing. Another ~12M trying to buy in nxt 1-3 yrs
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@AggieCapitalist
LeftHandedOctopus
9 months
@LogicalThesis $ABG (4x our '25 EPS est), $CROX (6x earnings), $BXC (6x 2024), $ASO (6.5x NTM), $ECN (<6x '25) Also here are some of our FinTech/Software names, all at all time low valuations on relative & absolute basis (in the 0-1st %ile relative to the $SPY)
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@AggieCapitalist
LeftHandedOctopus
1 year
From Goldman consumer team today: "Housing Bearishness has Eased: This is a theme we have been watching for 2 weeks now and last week's price action and inbounds on the space seem to confirm it. Housing names really aren’t going down anymore on prints, good or bad.
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@AggieCapitalist
LeftHandedOctopus
2 years
Framed another way, credit card debt per Capita is down 6% vs 2008 and disposable income is up 55%.
@GunjanJS
Gunjan Banerji
2 years
"Relative to income, credit card balances are well below pre-pandemic levels and at lowest levels since the early 1990s"--Jefferies
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LeftHandedOctopus
9 months
$ASO calls out strength in HeyDude on their earnings call once again. $CROX "We continue to see a strength in casual and work footwear driven by national brands such as HEYDUDE, along with our private work boot and apparel brand Roswell"
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@AggieCapitalist
LeftHandedOctopus
2 years
"hedge fund equity market exposure is exceptionally low"
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@AggieCapitalist
LeftHandedOctopus
5 years
Quotes from Ellison bio reveal just how perfect of a cultural fit he is for $TSLA. He & Musk are such good friends bc they are nearly clones except Ellison was profitable from the get-go. "I cannot run this business and tell the truth to the customers. I'ts not possible."
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LeftHandedOctopus
2 years
Only ~1% of Kitchen & Bath remodels occur in homes < 10 yrs old, 11% for homes 11-20 years, and 17% from 21-30 years old. ~8% of US housing stock will age into 21+ age cohort (peak home starts years 2002-2006). Next 5 yrs could experience 1 of biggest remodeling booms in history.
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LeftHandedOctopus
1 year
Mortgage rates down to ~6% & wages growing by ~6% = affordability quickly going in the right direction. Only a few cities are unaffordable for median earner by the normal measure at 6.5% & home prices from early Spring (mtg pmt >30% of HH income), so this looks much better now.
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@AggieCapitalist
LeftHandedOctopus
2 years
Anything to add? $KBH $CCS $LSEA $BXC $XHB
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@AggieCapitalist
LeftHandedOctopus
2 years
Software Industry CapEx exceeds Oil & Gas CapEx. (US listed companies)
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@AggieCapitalist
LeftHandedOctopus
2 years
While everyone is still waiting for an epic economic collapse, I've rarely ever seen more bullish commentary and outlooks on earnings calls across a wide variety of cyclical industries....while valuations for many stocks/industries are at all time lows/20 yr lows.
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@AggieCapitalist
LeftHandedOctopus
6 months
Valuation percentiles relative to 20-year average...US small cap 4%, US Large cap 88%
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@AggieCapitalist
LeftHandedOctopus
2 years
“There cannot be a better time to be a value investor,” Anuj Ranjan, MD at $BAM. “Public markets are not valuing businesses the way that private markets are,” Ranjan said. “Today, I think private sponsors should be doing more public-to-privates. I concur. $GFF
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@AggieCapitalist
LeftHandedOctopus
5 months
HF exposure to Cyclicals is still quite low with extreme selling this month still. Exposure to banks still at an 8+ year low (source: Goldman)
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@AggieCapitalist
LeftHandedOctopus
2 years
from Goldman Sachs head of consumer research: "Nearly every one of our conversations last week was an investor looking for shorts in housing."
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@AggieCapitalist
LeftHandedOctopus
10 months
$IMXI is now at a >40% discount to the multiple no-growth MoneyGram was bought out at. And it's at an ~8% discount to $WU which has done a -2.6% rev CAGR for the last 10 yrs...seems it immediately baked in that they will never grow again & are entering perpetual decline.
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@AggieCapitalist
LeftHandedOctopus
2 years
UBS initiated on home builders and building products this week. They ran polls that show a record high % of people plan to buy a home within the next 12 months (~40%) and record high plan to sell (31%). "Housing churn is a key driver for Repair & Remodel activity." $BXC $LPX $CNR
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LeftHandedOctopus
10 months
Good chart. $SPY S&P 500 ~1 standard deviation above average valuation, Small Caps ~1 std. dev. below average.
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LeftHandedOctopus
2 years
@MPelletierCIO Sir, that would be a full 15% more than home prices declined by (peak to trough) during the GFC when credit was shut off and the unemployment rate was 9.9% and the US home vacancy rate was ~4x higher than it is now. I'll take the under.
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LeftHandedOctopus
8 months
$TSLA = 250x FCF run-rate $STLA Stellantis, which has much higher operating margins and much faster revenue growth than Tesla = ~2-3x FCF
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LeftHandedOctopus
2 years
Bulls 18 mos ago: "Valuations don't matter. Look at the biz quality & growth. innovation. New paradigm." [some] Bears now: "Valuation doesn't matter. Old metrics like P/E & growth are no longer relevant, interest rates are everything. New paradigm. This time is different."
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LeftHandedOctopus
5 months
See Meredith Whitney &others still spreading a false narrative on housing, saying that Boomers will sell & create a supply glut. The reality is home ownership rate is highest for 65-74 yr old cohort & stays elevated up until 80. Also the % w/ 2nd homes goes up exponentially w age
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@AggieCapitalist
LeftHandedOctopus
6 months
$CRH has a long way to go just to get close to the next cheapest peer that is an inferior operator.
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@AggieCapitalist
LeftHandedOctopus
9 months
from JP Morgan, size factor crowding from active managers might be at an all time high
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@AggieCapitalist
LeftHandedOctopus
7 months
$TSLA 4Q23 QTD US deliveries soften Q/Q through Oct: delivered ~40k vehicles in Oct, below July deliveries of ~49k, based on trends in our consumer US insurance policy data. Model 3 & Y deliveries in the month were particularly weak at ~13k & ~24k, the lowest levels since Jan-23.
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LeftHandedOctopus
8 months
Big short guy Steve Eisman was on CNBC pumping $ROAD and infra exposure... meanwhile $CRH has the same business that is multiples larger and better at half the multiple...not many know about it yet.
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LeftHandedOctopus
2 years
$LOW says >70% of Pro customers expect more work in 2023 than 2022 and "this is just another proof point of the resilience of home improvement demand even in this uncertain macro environment."
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LeftHandedOctopus
3 years
I wanted to share a few more book reviews that might be helpful to someone out there, particularly any new investors (or clueless mgmt teams) looking to develop a solid fundamental analysis framework and foundation in this noisy capital markets environment. Feel free to share.
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@AggieCapitalist
LeftHandedOctopus
1 year
$TSLA Used car prices
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LeftHandedOctopus
7 months
$BXC finished previous buyback entirely in October and announced another $100M authorization. That is 15.6% of share outstanding at current market price and only uses 23% of cash (end of last Q balance).
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LeftHandedOctopus
2 years
This is actually showing all types of revolving consumer credit, not just credit cards as he states includes personal LOC & HELOCs Isolating just credit card debt = still 0.2% below 2019 peak & only up 5.2% from January 2009. Meanwhile, US consumer net worth is up 2.4x
@typesfast
Ryan Petersen
2 years
This is fine
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LeftHandedOctopus
6 years
Another @tesla whompy wheel. From a friend in Shanghai. Actually this owner has had two whompy wheel accidents. Wonder how many dozens/hundreds there are that we never hear about. $TSLA
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LeftHandedOctopus
2 years
$AN AutoNation has bought back 22% of shares outstanding YTD...and has another $1.4B authorized on a $5.6B market cap (another 25% coming)...
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LeftHandedOctopus
2 years
I have friends who are remodeling their homes bc they're moving & have friends who are doing large remodels because they decided not to move. Win/win for R&R & why it provides steady growth over the decades. Strong tailwinds next 1-5 yrs given aging housing stock. $GFF $BXC
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LeftHandedOctopus
2 years
"While the housing industry experienced a material rise in mortgage rates during the 1st Q of 2022, it did not dampen the demand for our homes as evidenced by our sales pace of 5.7 homes per community per month,” $TPH Cancellation rate only +2% y/y. Value of order backlog up 19%
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LeftHandedOctopus
9 months
Higher rates are a boon for the top 1/2 of households, thus consumer spending has accelerated in real terms in the face of higher rates. Bottom 10%= only 3.7% of PCE Top 10% = 25%+ Higher rates are not so deflationary, they just limit new supply of RE driving up rents+Home Px.
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@AggieCapitalist
LeftHandedOctopus
8 months
Cement player margins are exploding higher. They are still getting high teens price increases (and still rising) with costs coming down. Good read through for $CRH, the #3 cement player in North America. $CRH
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@AggieCapitalist
LeftHandedOctopus
2 years
It's still fascinating that bearish comments/tweets that offer no analysis (eg random meaningless charts) get what appears to be 10-1,000x the engagement as something positive that uses data.
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@AggieCapitalist
LeftHandedOctopus
2 years
$WSM (10.6% FCF yield) bears are waiting for the Nth Q in a row for a demand collapse but the mgmt team keeps reiterating that sales accelerated at the end of Q2 & into Q3. 21.5% SSS Comp at their biggest brand on top of ~30% last year in a "recession." From Oppenheimer:
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@AggieCapitalist
LeftHandedOctopus
2 years
Smart money buying lumber and building products companies (Berkshire buying $LPX). $BXC is a direct beneficiary of LPX's growth plans.
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@AggieCapitalist
LeftHandedOctopus
1 month
@stoked_on_waves Yes. The market is hard to outperform because it is so inefficient, rather than because it is efficient.
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@AggieCapitalist
LeftHandedOctopus
8 months
RJ base case PT on $CROX uses 1/2 its historical avg PE yet goog search trends/app DLs still growing like a weed. Google Trends show searches for Crocs were consistent at +22% y/y in 3Q23 vs +22% in 2Q23. HEYDUDE searches were also consistent at +43% in 3Q23 vs +44% in 2Q23."
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@AggieCapitalist
LeftHandedOctopus
4 months
$CARR & $NVR = greater 3-month revenue revisions than $NVDA
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