(1u) Patrick Sandoval under 16.5 outs (-135)
-Under in 7/L10 and in 8/10 road starts on the year
-Facing MLB’s best offense vs LHP in ATL, with a 133 wRC+ and .880 OPS vs LHP L30 days
-ATL also 6th in MLB in pitches per PA (3.95)
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Clarke Schmidt (NYY) under 5.5 Ks (-140)
Schmidt is under this line in 14/21 (67%) of his starts on the year. He is also under in 7/L10 and in 9/12 home starts on the year.
I expect these trends to continue today as he faces an Astros lineup that is top 10 in the league in
Sonny Gray (MIN) under 5.5 Ks (-170)
Overnight play that I recommend you guys get on ASAP. Gray has gone under this line in 4 in a row, in 9/L10 (90%) and in 7/L10 road games.
What stands out to me is that his previous 3 games were under vs KC, SEA, and CWS. All 3 are among
Gerrit Cole (NYY) under 5.5 hits allowed (-140)
Cole under in 16/23 (70%) on the season, and in 5 consecutive games. He pitches in Chicago tonight, and he is also under in 4/L5 road starts.
Facing a White Sox team that is by no means a juggernaut offensively. They are 24th in
(1u) Corbin Burnes under 18.5 outs (-145)
-Under in 7/10 and in 16/21 (76%) of starts on year
-WSH not patient, but 11/12 starters going 6 or less vs them since the break
-WSH a .260 AVG vs RHP (9th in MLB) and .327 OBP (12th) post-break
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Luis Severino (NYY) under 5.5 Ks (-165)
Severino has struckout 5 batters or less in 6 consecutive games. He has gone under this line in 10/12 (83%) starts on the year. At home, he has gone under in 3 straight and is 4/5 to the under in '23.
Tonight he faces an Astros lineup
Luke Weaver (CIN) under 4.5 Ks (-155)
Weaver is under this line in 12/19 (63%) of his starts on the year, and has been going under at an even higher rate of late at 8/L10 (80%).
Today Weaver faces a Marlins team that does not strike out often at all. In the L30 days, they have
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(1u) Matt Manning (DET)
Wild value in this Tigers-Pirates prop
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(1u): Matt Carpenter under 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs (-165)
-Under in 15 of his last 20 games and in 8/9
-Bats .143 vs Hendricks(CHC) in 28 career ABs. Bats only .165 vs RHP
-7th in tonight’s lineup and at DH. Could be PH for
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(1u): Adam Wainwright under 17.5 outs recorded (-125)
-Under in 5/5 starts on the season. 9/10 dating back to 2022
-Rangers have a wRC+ of 130, this is the 3rd best in MLB.
-Wainwright with an ERA over 6, could get hit hard
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(1u) Cristian Javier under 5.5 Ks (-160)
-Under in 7 in a row and in 10/15 (67%) on the year
-Under vs CHC and OAK. 2 of the more K-prone teams in MLB
-Facing a STL team which is 24th in MLB in K% vs RHP (21.7%)
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(1u): Aaron Nola under 6.5 strikeouts (+110)
-Under in 10/12 starts on the year
-10 K game was vs CHC who have been striking out constantly of late
-23.8% K rate for DET (11th worst in MLB), but last month down to 20.5% (12th best)
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(1u): Will Benson under 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs (-170)
-Under in 16/17 games on the ‘23 season
-.167 in 42 ABs on the year. Teheran for MIL has been good in 3 games (0.82 ERA in 11 IP)
-8th in today’s lineup
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(1u) Andrew Heaney under 6.5 Ks (-135)
-Under in 6 in a row and in 8/10 (2 overs vs SEA and OAK, both top 5 in K%)
-DET is 10th in MLB in K%, but just 16th vs LHP (22.6%)
-Even better contact vs LHP in June. 27th in MLB during span (16.7%)
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Yusei Kikuchi (TOR) under 16.5 outs -115
Under in 14/21 starts on the year and in 7/L10. He is also under in both starts vs the Orioles this year (recording only 14 outs in both outings).
Kikuchi has been solid this year but has struggled to work deep in to games due to his
(1u): Freddy Peralta under 5.5 strikeouts (-115)
-Under in 5 in a row, 7/11 on the year and in 16/20 dating back to 2022.
-Just 82 pitches per game over 20 game span
-Facing Orioles who are 21st in MLB with only a 21.4 K%
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Mike Clevinger (CWS) under 5.5 Ks (-145)
Clevinger has gone under this line in 4 consecutive starts, as well as 10/14 overall on the season. He has one previous start vs the Yankees in which he went way under at just 2 Ks.
The Yankees have had games on the season where they
🚨 May 2023 Recap 🚨
📈 92-47-1 (+21.29u) 📈
Amazing first month. Started hot and evened out some, but love our overall direction going forward. Just the beginning and look forward to even bigger things!🌴 📊
S/O
@OutlierDotBet
for the sauce all month.
#GamblingTwitter
(1u): Logan Webb under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-145)
-Under in 8/11 on the year, 7 in a row.
-Webb under in 5/5 home games
-Orioles are a solid offensive team but have been pedestrian of late (20th in MLB in wRC+ over last 14 days)
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Clarke Schmidt (NYY) under 5.5 hits allowed (-145)
Schmidt has gone under this line in 6 consecutive starts, in 8/L10 and in 15/22 (68%) starts on the year.
Our logic is on this play is similar to Gerrit Cole last night, who finished with 5 hits. Schmidt faces an underwhelming
(1u) Cristian Javier under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-125)
- Javier under in 4 in a row and in 7/10 on the season. 15/20 dating back to 2022
-Javier 3/4 to the under vs LAA
-LAA has a good offense, but key hitters have struggled vs Javier
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(1u) Ranger Suarez under 5.5 hits allowed (-160)
-Under in 6/8 on the season and in 3 in a row (1.04 ERA in June)
-CHC have struggled in June vs LHP, batting just .222 (23rd in MLB)
-Gave up 5 hits in May start vs Cubs
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(1u): Marcus Stroman over 17.5 outs recorded (-130)
-Over in 10/12 starts this season, and in 4/5 road starts
-Padres 22nd in MLB in wRC+, also have fewest number of PAs per game in the league
-Padres combined 9-46 vs Stroman
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(1u): Tony Gonsolin under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-135)
-Under in 5/7 on the season, and has not gone over 3 ER
-Facing the Reds, who he went 2/2 to the under against in the ‘22 season
-91 wRC+ for Reds, which is 23rd in MLB
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Hall of Fame Game SZN 😤
Were going to spraying some units around come football season.
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Ty Blach (COL) under 3.5 Ks (-160)
Blach has gone under this line in 3/3 (100%) of his starts this year after being called up, and is yet to strike out 3 batters in a game.
Today he faces a Dodgers lineup that has avoiding striking out vs LHP as of late. Over the L30 days, LAD
(1u) Julio Teheran under 2.5 earned runs (-125)
-Under in 6/6 starts on the season. 1 or 0 in 4/6
-Mets have been quiet offensively in June, with a wRC+ of 91 vs RHP during month (20th in MLB)
-Mets 25th in OPS vs RHP in the month (.684)
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(1u) Rodolfo Castro under 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs (-150)
-Under in 11 in a row and in 16/20 overall.
-Has not recorded a hit in last 6 games
-Castro is a lefty specialist, but facing a RHP in Darvish (SD). Castro is .172 on the season vs RHP
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(1u) Andrew Heaney under 6.5 Ks (-170)
-Under in 9/10 and in 14/18 on season
-During L30 days, LAD has not been striking out vs LHP. 19th in MLB in K% vs LHP at 22.3%
-L14 days LAD is 19.3% K rate vs lefties
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Graham Ashcraft (CIN) under 4.5 Ks (-160)
Ashcraft has gone under this line in 14/20 (70%) of starts. He also has gone under in 4/L5 and 7/L10 starts. 2 of the last 3 starts in which Ashcraft went over were against the Cubs and the Brewers, both of which strike out very often.
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(1u) Bryan Woo (SEA)
Really an undervalued spot with this.
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(1u) Max Strus under 0.5 turnovers (-170)
-Under in 11 in a row and in 17 of his last 20.
-Nuggets 10th worst team in NBA in forcing TOs.
-KCP has not defended Strus well thus far in the series. Has had space to shoot in both games
@OutlierDotBet
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#NBAFinals
(1u): Pablo Reyes under 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs (-165)
-Under in 5 straight games and in 7/10 on the season
-Facing Kelley(TB). Is only 3-21 vs RHP on the season (.190)
-9th in todays lineup for Game 1 of the DH. Less ABs likely
@OutlierDotBet
#GamblingTwitter
(1u): Brett Wisely under 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs (-170)
-5 of his last 5, 9 of 10, and 22/27 to the under during 2023
-Batting .162 over 62 ABs vs RHP, .179 overall
-9th in the lineup tonight, could be pinch hit and potential for fewer ABs
@OutlierDotBet
#GamblingTwitter
#MLB
(1u): Jonathan Marchessault under 3.5 shots on goal (-165)
-Despite a goal in Game 1, finished with 3 SOG on 4 attempts
-Under in 5 in a row and in 4 straight home playoff games
-82% of SA are on goal and still going under
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(1u): Sergei Bobrovsky over 29.5 saves (-110)
-Over in 5/5 and 8/10 in the postseason
-Only 16 goals allowed since the Toronto series
-Panthers average nearly 32 shots against per game
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Brennan Armstrong (NC State) over 32.5 rush yards (-120)
NC State RB Jordan Houston announced that he is redshirting this week, and is no longer on the Wolfpack roster. This figures to open up a spot for QB Brennan Armstrong to take some of his rushes, who has gone over this
(1u): Zack Wheeler under 8.5 strikeouts (-115)
- Under in 4/5 (80%) and in 10/12 on the 2023 season
-4/5 at home on the year
-Although DET has 7th highest K% in baseball, this is due to April. In May had 6th lowest K% in MLB (20.5%)
@OutlierDotBet
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(9/10/23)
7-0 (+5.58u) 📈
SWEEP 🧹
First NFL Sunday of the year is a BANGER. We needed this badly after a horrible Thursday. 3 nice big days in a row. Fired up but we have to refocus and keep moving up. No complacency
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Christian McCaffery (SF) under 17.5 rush attempts (-140)
CMC recorded less than 18 rushes in 16/20 of his games in 2022. Although he has gone over in the first 2 games of 2023, head coach Kyle Shanahan wants this to change, stating that he needs to dial back McCaffery's usage in
(1u) Jon Gray under 4.5 Ks (-165)
-Under in 4 consecutive games
-Facing CLE, who has the second lowest K % in MLB at 18.8%
-CLE has lowest K% in league through July, at only 17.3%
@OutlierDotBet
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(1u) Wade Miley under 3.5 Ks (-135)
-Under in 8/10 starts on the season
-Mets are 22nd in MLB in K% vs LHP (20.9) and 26th overall (also 20.9%)
-Miley went under in previous start in April vs the Mets at home (3 Ks)
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TNF Week 1 Free Play🚨
(1u) Jahmyr Gibbs (DET)
FOOTBALL.
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Max Fried (ATL) under 2.5 earned runs (-140)
Fried has gone under 2.5 runs in 8/11 (72%) of his starts on the season. He has been really solid for the Braves this year, with an ERA of 2.54. He is coming off 7 scoreless innings on the road against the Dodgers, and I like him to
(1u) Gavin Williams under 4.5 Ks (-150)
-Under in 4/7 starts, and under in 4/4 of all starts vs teams that aren’t the Royals
-HOU 24th in K% vs RHP on the season at 21.6%
-Have been even better over the L30 days, with a 20.3 K%
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(1u) Logan Webb over 17.5 outs (-135)
-Webb over in 17/20 starts on the year
-Facing WSH team who has been struggling vs RHP, with 84 wRC+ in L30 days
-WSH swings early in ABs and does not walk often against RHP
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(1u): Michael Porter Jr. over 24.5 PRA (-125)
-MPJ has gone over this line in 5/5 and in 8/10
-The 2 games under: played ~23 min in blowouts. Expect a close game and at least 30 min tonight
-2-11 from 3 Game 1, but still cashed
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(1u): Will Benson under 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs (-150)
-Under in 14/15 games on the season
-Averages just 0.7 HRRBI per game, batting .154 and .162 vs RHP. No RBIs yet
-In CF and batting 8th. Less likely ABs available
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(1u) Joe Musgrove under 2.5 earned runs (-150)
-Under in 6 in a row and in 9/L10
-Facing a poor Tigers offense. They are 2nd to last in MLB in wRC+ vs RHP at 82
-DET also 29th in MLB in OPS vs RHP at .653
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Brian Robinson (WSH) over 15.5 rush attempts (-105)
Cooked this up with my guy
@OddFatherDub
. Give the man a follow, hes always cashing.
Robinson is over this line in 2/4 games this season, with the last 2 going under. However, these last 2 games were against some of the best
(1u) Kyle Hendricks under 6.5 hits allowed (-150)
-Under in 9/11 starts on the year and in 4/5 road starts
-Cubs have been careful with his pitch count, I expect somewhere between 80-90 pitches
-L30 days CWS have 88 wRC+ (24th in MLB)
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(1u): Aaron Nola under 6.5 strikeouts (+110)
-Under in 10/12 starts on the year
-10 K game was vs CHC who have been striking out constantly of late
-23.8% K rate for DET (11th worst in MLB), but last month down to 20.5% (12th best)
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✅
Plus money winner here! Just 2 hits surrendered by Lorenzen for the second straight start vs the White Sox. He has their number
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(1u): Michael Lorenzen under 5.5 hits allowed (+105)
-Under this line in 5/5 and in 6/8 in 2023
-Facing CWS, a below average offensive team (20th in MLB in AVG)
-Last start was last week vs CWS, gave up just 2 hits
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(1u) Elias Diaz under 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs (-125)
-Under in 13 consecutive games and in 17/20
-Averaging only 0.4 HRRBI per game and over the last 10
-Facing Garrett (MIA), Diaz has struggled vs LHP all season batting .222
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(1u) Adam Wainwright under 16.5 outs (-135)
-Under in 6/10, has not made it through 6 IP in 8/10
-Cubs average 4.11 pitches per AB, which leads MLB
-Game is in hitter-friendly park in London. The O/U is set to 13.5
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(1u) Lucas Giolito under 6.5 Ks (-140)
-Hasn’t struck out as many batters on the road. Under in 5/8 and 15/20 dating back to ‘22
-2/3 overs have been to KC and MIN (top 10 in K%)
-LAA just a 22.0 K% in June vs RHP (20th in MLB)
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(1u) Luis Castillo (SEA)
An absolute steal. Most confident bet today
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(1u) Bailey Ober (MIN)
Great find in the Twins-Tigers matchup
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(1u): Tylor Megill under 4.5 strikeouts (-155)
-Under in 9/11 starts on the year
-5/5 at home on the season
-Facing a Blue Jays team that puts the ball in play, having the 4th best K% in baseball at only 19.9%
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Bobby Miller (LAD) under 5.5 Ks (-105)
Bobby Miller is under 6 Ks in 10/15 of his starts in 2023 (67%). He is also under in 4 in a row and in 7/L10 starts.
Today he faces the Diamondbacks. Although they have struck out a bit more of late, they are still one of the league's best
(1u): Akil Baddoo under 1.5 batting strikeouts (-165)
-Under in 20 consecutive games, and 14 consecutive on the road
-Has not exceeded 0.5 Ks in 14/20
-Kopech (CWS) can K guys, but Baddoo has a bit of success vs him in a small sample(1-3)
@OutlierDotBet
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(2u) Bryan Woo under 5.5 hits allowed (-140)
-Under in 3 in a row. Giving up less hits in each start
-Nationals have been a middle of the pack team in June in AVG at .256 (13th in MLB)
-Mariners have been careful with Woo’s pitch count.
@OutlierDotBet
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(1u): Will Benson under 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs (-170)
-Under in 16/17 games on the ‘23 season
-.167 in 42 ABs on the year. Teheran for MIL has been good in 3 games (0.82 ERA in 11 IP)
-8th in today’s lineup
@OutlierDotBet
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(1u) Kyle Lewis under 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs (-140)
-Under in 8 consecutive and in 17/20
-Batting only .138 on the year. Primarily used vs LHP but still just .150 vs lefties
-Averages only 0.7 HRRBI per game in the 2023 season
@OutlierDotBet
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(1u) Mark Canha under 0.5 runs (-160)
-Under in 14 consecutive games and in 16/L20
-Facing Josiah Gray (WSH) who has been pitching very well of late, will be tough matchup for Canha
-7th in lineup and at home, chance for fewer ABs
@OutlierDotBet
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Kodai Senga (NYM) under 2.5 earned runs (-155)
Senga is under in 6 straight games, 4 straight road games, in 8/L10 and in 13/19 (68%) on the year.
Today he has a great matchup against the Royals. KC is last in MLB in wRC+ (80) and 28th in OPS (.667). KC has been a bit better
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(1u) Kodai Senga (NYM)
Sneaky play with incredible value
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Luis Severino under 16.5 outs ✅
Sevy crushed once again by the O’s and we cash
3 straight dubs on
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Zack Wheeler under 1.5 walks ✅
Loved this look from the outset. 1 walk and we cash
Our
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(1u) Zack Wheeler (PHI)
Absolute gift here. Most confident play today
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(1u): Griffin Canning under 16.5 outs recorded (-135)
-Despite going over in last 2, Canning is 6/8 on the season, and 14/20 dating back to ‘21
-Only 11 outs in previous start vs HOU
-HOU have chased Ohtani and Sandoval early this series
@OutlierDotBet
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(1u): Merrill Kelly under 5.5 hits allowed (-130)
-Under in 9/11 starts in 2023 (1 over was Coors Field)
-ATL 11th in MLB is hits per game, but coming off tough series vs Oakland
-Braves roster has struggled vs Kelly (10-53 combined)
@OutlierDotBet
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Hyun Jin Ryu (TOR) under 3.5 Ks (-120)
Although this line is very low, Ryu is under it in 7/L10 starts dating back to last year as well as 4/L5. It is only his 2nd start this year, but in his one start he went under vs the O’s.
Given this, I like his chances to continue these
(1u): James Paxton under 5.5 hits allowed (-150)
-Under in all 4 starts on the season
-Already gone under vs top 10 offenses in STL and LAA
-Facing CLE, who is 24th in MLB in hits per game with 7.76 (6 total runs in previous series)
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(6/2/23):
3-2 (+0.01u) 📊
MASSIVE DAY
😂 Obviously not the most impressive but technically speaking were a .01 unit richer. This technically gives us a 6th consecutive day in the green as well. Lets make some bigger gains tomorrow
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(1u) Michael Harris II under 1.5 HRRBI (-130)
-Has hit in 7 in a row and 16 of his last 20.
-Batting just .191 and even worse (.141) vs RHP in 84 ABs on the year.
-Facing Max Scherzer today who he is 1-9 against in his career
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(8/6/2023)
5-0 (+3.49u) 📈
Sweeeeep 🧹Weve been due for a 5 game sweep! Love to see days like this. Hopefully this can catapult a big run for us. Hope some of y’all were able to tail these and make some money. On to tomorrow
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Zach Eflin (TB) under 5.5 Ks (-125)
Eflin is under 6 strikeouts in 7/L10 starts, which is including some unders against typically K-heavy teams such as the Angels, Royals, and Yankees.
Today he gets the Red Sox in St. Pete. On the season, BOS is one of the league's better teams
(1u): Michael Harris II under 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs (-145)
-Has hit in 5 straight and in 16/20 games
-Batting .152 vs RHP in 79 ABs. Facing DBacks ace Gallen, who he is 0-2 career vs.
-Batting 9th in todays lineup.
@OutlierDotBet
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#MLB
Huge slate of games this weekend on the diamond. Looking forward to bringing you guys some plays. ⚾️
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(6/5/23):
2-3 (-1.61u) 📉
Well we’ve run into a bit of a rough patch. Disappointing 3 day stretch but its all a part of it. Lets get hot again tomorrow
#GamblingTwitter
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#StanleyCupFinal
(6/1/23):
3-0 (+2.15u) 🔥
Hot start to the month of June. Both NBA bets were dicey but we came out on the right side of them. 5 straight winning days now. Lets continue this tomorrow 👀
#GamblingTwitter
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#NBAFinals
Jordan Lyles (KC) under 4.5 Ks (-165)
Lyles has struck out 4 or less batters in 15/21 (71%) of his starts on the year. He also has gone under in 4 in a row and 8/L10. 2 of the previous 4 unders were against the Tigers and Twins, which are teams that K often.
Today Lyles faces
(1u) Andrew Heaney under 6.5 Ks (-135)
-Under in 6 in a row and in 8/10 (2 overs vs SEA and OAK, both top 5 in K%)
-DET is 10th in MLB in K%, but just 16th vs LHP (22.6%)
-Even better contact vs LHP in June. 27th in MLB during span (16.7%)
@OutlierDotBet
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(1u) Blake Snell over 17.5 outs (-135)
-Over in 7/L8, including 4 straight on the road
-Game 1 of the DH, SD will want Snell to go deep to preserve bullpen
-PHI 25th in walks per game (2.98), and 20th in total plate appearances
@OutlierDotBet
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(1u): Mitch Keller under 1.5 walks allowed (-160)
-Under in 7/10 and 7/12 on the ‘23 season
-Went over in first 4 games, but all were cold weather games. Control was likely impacted. 7/8 since
-Athletics 19th in MLB in walks per game
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Isiah Pacheco (KC) over 50.5 rush yards (-120)
Pacheco went over 50.5 yards in 8 of his last 10 games played in 2022. The only 2 unders for him came against the Bengals and Broncos, both of which were top 10 defenses against the run.
On Thursday night, Pacheco goes up against
Bobby Miller (LAD) under 5.5 Ks (-155)
Miller is under 6 Ks in 11/19 (69%) of his starts on the season. He is also under in 7/L10 starts, with 2 out of the 3 overs coming against PIT and CIN which are among the league's leaders in strikeouts.
Today he faces one of the better
Clarke Schmidt (NYY) under 5.5 Ks (-140)
Schmidt is under this line in 14/21 (67%) of his starts on the year. He is also under in 7/L10 and in 9/12 home starts on the year.
I expect these trends to continue today as he faces an Astros lineup that is top 10 in the league in
(7/8/23)
(3-1) +1.13u 📈
Nice day today! Shocked by Mannings performance but we will take a nice profitable day. Good week for us so far overall. Need a nice day tomorrow to go into the MLB all star break
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