Ally Zach @0xallyzach Twitter profile

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Ally Zach

13 days

Thrilled to announce that I recently joined the platform team @PanteraCapital as a research engineer! I'll be working with @stephensonhmatt to deliver top-tier research rooted in data-driven analytics. Stay tuned for more!

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

11 months

1/ @solana has experienced a remarkable 2x surge in unique users within the past month, with a significant portion comprising new users. What attracts these users and how do they engage within the ecosystem?🧵

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

2 years

I'm excited to announce that I've joined @MessariCrypto as a research analyst. I'm thrilled for this next chapter in my career and to be working with some amazing people in the space!

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

4 months

. @dogwifcoin 's market cap escalated from under $1M to a massive $350M in just a few weeks. What sparked Solana's latest memecoin frenzy? What can past performers like WIF teach us about identifying future memecoin trends? 👇

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

5 months

1/ Solana's ecosystem has seen exceptional growth lately: + SOL up over 6x from Dec '22 lows + active addresses up ~2x + TVL up ~2x But, do these figures reflect fundamental growth, or is there a disconnect between price action and network development? 🧵

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

9 months

1/ @CyberConnectHQ has dominated user acquisition in the decentralized social sector, onboarding 1.4 million users since its inception. But, long-term success hinges on more than merely attracting users 🧵:

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

6 months

In the last year, L2s exploded in growth, now representing +150% of Ethereum's daily active addresses But, not all L2s are growing equally, and many see inflated numbers due to airdrop farmers (& sybils) So, how do we identify which ecosystems are genuinely gaining traction? 👇

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

20 days

A personal update: After 2 years, last friday was my final day at @MessariCrypto I'm truly thankful for the countless opportunities I had while working there and genuinely feel there are few places better suited to dive headfirst into learning about all things crypto More on…

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

7 months

Deep Dive on @friendtech Part 1: Incentivization Model Part of @friendtech 's current appeal is its current weekly point distribution set to conclude in ~5 months. Incentives play a pivotal role in the growth strategies of emerging crypto platforms. They serve as an…

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

10 months

1/ Token incentives play a pivotal role in fostering protocol growth. We commonly see three core models: + one-time airdrops + ongoing rewards + campaign models Let's unpack 6 case studies to understand the effectiveness of these varied token incentive models👇

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

1 year

1/ @LensProtocol 's open social graph makes it seamless for users to migrate between apps since all of their data is tied to their wallet. But what sets certain apps apart in this highly competitive landscape? 🧵

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

8 months

1/ @farcaster_xyz has seen all time high usage over the past few weeks and is gearing up for a public release in the near future But what are the key aspects driving Farcaster's growth and how can it sustain this momentum? 🧵

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

2 months

Memecoin mania round 2 is in full swing for the past month with DOGE +100% SHIB +230% WIF + 625% PEPE + 730% Let's explore what sparked round 2 and how you can use data to distinguish between enduring potential and short-term hype👇

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

7 months

1/ @friendtech has onboarded over 300k unique users since launch, but is the platform's growth sustainable? 🧵

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

2 months

1/ One of the keys to making it in crypto is being early to a new narrative But keeping up with every event in a constantly evolving industry is near impossible Looking at past & current cycles through a data driven lens can give us an edge 👇

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

2 years

1/ Ethereum's high gas fees have created a financial barrier for common retail investors to interact with the network. @loopringorg 's Layer-2 solution aims to break down this barrier by performing cost-intensive computations off-chain through a unique peer-to-peer ring trade.

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

11 months

3/ In the past year, the focus of gateway apps on @solana has transitioned through various sectors: Defi -> Gaming -> NFT Markets -> Mix Notably in recent months a larger portion of gateway apps come from the consumer sector, like @saydialect and @AccessProtocol

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

3 months

1/ Since its Jan 25 launch, Farcaster's frames have elevated user engagement to ATHs, attracting over 75k new sign-ups with over 70% actively casting. But what's driving the latest DeSoc frenzy? 👇

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

1 year

1/ In crypto, the “wealth effect” refers to the phenomenon where user growth is driven by the allure of wealth created by new ecosystem tokens. By analyzing historical market cap and user activity data, we can predict how new token launches will impact newer ecosystems👇

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

11 months

4/ New functionalities like programmable NFTs and NFT compression as well as @solana 's low cost, high throughput environment make it an ideal network for consumer applications to thrive.

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

11 months

7/ For more on the transformation of Solana's application landscape as well as a look inside: + Historical usage by sector + Application ecosystem connections + Protocol specific trends Check out my latest report on @MessariCrypto :

Solana's Shifting Landscape: From DeFi to Consumer Applications | Messari

Solana's Shifting Landscape: From DeFi to Consumer Applications

messari.io

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

11 months

5/ While @solana 's long term user retention falls behind competitors, its short term retention is second to @arbitrum . The high short term retention has been driven by the recent increase in activity on novel consumer apps over the past few months.

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

11 months

2/ Gateway apps are the very first interaction a user has within an ecosystem, and play a crucial role in user onboarding and engagement.

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

4 months

Let's take WIF as an example Achieving an 'escape velocity', it skyrocketed to a $350M market cap in just a few weeks. WIF's journey to relative success was paved by: + a growing holder base + new market entrants + timely trades by whales

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

4 months

For a more in depth discussion on Solana's latest memecoin frenzy, check out my latest report on @MessariCrypto :

Memecoin Escape Velocity | Messari

How do memecoins reach escape velocity?

messari.io

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

4 months

For WIF & other Solana memes, crossing 3k and 10k holder marks was key to their market value surge. A diverse holder base often stabilizes prices, while concentration can lead to volatility, making monitoring holder count vital for gauging market shifts.

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

4 months

Early Growth: + Look for a sharp increase in holder count and trading volume + Key is when new holders outnumber recurring ones and hitting 3k holders + Small-scale trader dominance often leads to sustainable growth

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

14 days

. @MessariCrypto is one of the best places to launch a career in crypto, paying you to learn & dive deep into the industry 👇

Maartje Bus

@maartjebus

14 days

We are hiring a quantitative research analyst for our Enterprise Research team. If you are a crypto-native data-wizard and have solid writing skills, apply here 👉 You could be the next @0xallyzach doing cool stuff like this 👇

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

2 months

Finally, here's a link to an in-progress dashboard to track Solana DEX data and to create charts similar to the ones in this thread for any Solana-based token:

Solana DEX & Memecoins

Blockchain ecosystem analytics by and for the community. Explore and share data from Ethereum, Bitcoin, Polygon, BNB Chain, Solana, Arbitrum, Avalanche, Optimism, Fantom and Gnosis Chain for free.

dune.com

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

4 months

Solana's DeFi sector staged a dramatic comeback in the last two months: + DEX trading volume surged, briefly outpacing Ethereum & tripling historic average + Weekly active DEX traders up 6x from October

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

20 days

Also, big thanks to @Saypien_ and @maartjebus for their incredible support to @twobitidiot and @ericturnr for giving me a chance and to every enterprise team member since 2022 for their invaluable perspective that has shaped my view of this space

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

11 months

6/ The ability of these apps to retain users in the long run is still uncertain. Yet, these specialized apps are expected to have a crucial impact on maintaining long-term user engagement and fueling the ecosystem's growth down the line.

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

4 months

For WIF, there was a 0.95 correlation between price and holder count Holder growth is a key indicator of strength and value potential. At launch, memes often show concentrated token distribution, posing risks of market manipulation and hindering wider investor involvement.

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

7 months

Week 8 point distribution on @friend .tech follows the same criteria as the past 2 weeks. Check out the variables below 👇

Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

7 months

Deep Dive on @friendtech Part 1: Incentivization Model Part of @friendtech 's current appeal is its current weekly point distribution set to conclude in ~5 months. Incentives play a pivotal role in the growth strategies of emerging crypto platforms. They serve as an…

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

5 months

2/ While Solana was initially poised as a new Defi hub when it launched, it has diversified over time. New infra and tooling (like compressed NFTs) have yielded new consumer apps on the platform. For most of 2023, consumer apps served as the primary gateway for first-time users

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

4 months

The role of new traders is equally pivotal. Memes often see price surges and continued traction as new traders join the fray. But a shift towards more recurring traders can signal an approaching market peak.

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

7 months

Heading to @DuneAnalytics Dunecon in Lisbon next week Reach out if you'll be around!

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

10 months

23/ Effective token incentive programs need careful strategy that could include: + gradual release + strategic allocation + transparency + gamification + loyalty bonuses + continuous optimization The competition is stiff & protocols must continuously add value to retain users.

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

5 months

5/ The combined effect of @JupiterExchange airdrop announcement and @PythNetwork 's airdrop distr helped catalyze this effect Jupiter is maintaining record-high average WAA this surge rippled through the network, boosting other DEXs and highlighting it's interconnected growth

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

5 months

7/ But Solana's new DEX users are actually spending more per swap than recurring addresses and both groups are actively trading small and mid cap tokens This potentially indicates a more sustained and engaged user base, moving away from transient farming practices

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

10 months

24/ For a more in depth look at token incentive models, check out my latest report on @MessariCrypto :

The Efficacy of Token Incentive Models | Messari

The efficacy of token incentive models

messari.io

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

4 months

The JTO airdrop on Solana catalyzed a 'wealth effect', attracting new Defi users from the massive liquidity injection In fact, new weekly DEX users hit a high of 200k in a single week

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

5 months

4/ Airdrops and user acquisition go hand in hand through a memetic 'wealth effect' New token launches boost market caps and DEX TVL which in turn draw in users via the trading potential of these tokens Historically new ecosystem tokens also cause the native token to pump

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

5 months

9/ And it seems like the rest of Solana Defi is pulling their weight, for example: + @marginfi continually hitting ATH TVL + perps ( @DriftProtocol & @ZetaMarkets ) collectively seeing 10x user increase in a month

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

1 year

3/ @lensterxyz has seen the highest net migration (~31k users), with most of these users coming from @lenstubexyz , @phaverapp and @orbapp_

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

4 months

Post airdrop, on-chain trading focus shifted markedly from stables to memes and small-caps These assets comprised 25% of total DEX trading volume before the holidays, a substantial increase from just 5% in October

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

5 months

6/ Further, these new DEX users don't exhibit the same behavioral patterns you see with airdrop farmers on other networks. Typically, sybils, bots and farmers perform high frequency, small vol transactions, and usually swap stables

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

2 months

For more on memecoins, check out my current pro report on @MessariCrypto :

Navigating Memecoin Mania | Messari

memes

messari.io

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

4 months

Reversing Trend: + Watch for declining new user rates and recurring traders taking over + Erratic price swings might indicate market saturation + Sudden whale activity followed by sharp price changes

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

5 months

14/ Likely, this trading volume is fueled by airdrop farming on @tensor_hq The marketplace is like Solana's Blur equivalent, has yet to release a token and is in the midst of a points season Staking Tensorians in particular gives users an extra edge in point accumulation

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

2 months

High growth memes usually exhibit the following early on: + consistently increasing holder count + more new buyers than recurring ones + minimal presence of whales Let's see if this held true for new coins over the past few weeks

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

5 months

17/ Overall, the latest set of users on Solana, a mix of newcomers and veterans, is generally shifting away from typical airdrop farming behaviors. This change indicates a potential for these users to become long-standing contributors, thereby reinforcing Solana's sustainability

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

5 months

3/ However, since Breakpoint in early Nov, Solana's DeFi sector has been reignited... especially after a series of airdrop announcements for some of the largest projects in ecosystem, leading Jupiter to be the top gateway app for the past month

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

5 months

11/ Despite an increase of consumer based apps in the past year (messaging, social, nfts), user activity has dwindled from the peak in June

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

4 months

Solana's new token contract creation hit an all-time high in December, at just under 800k The real test lies in discerning valuable prospects amidst a sea of new tokens with both hidden gems and potential scams.

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

6 months

Unlike Arbitrum, which had GMX as a catalyst for organic growth, zkSync lacks a defining native app. DEXs alone can't propel long-term growth; native apps are the linchpin for broader engagement. zkSync's market expansion post-native token remains uncertain without such an app.

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

5 months

18/ For a more in depth look on Solana's fundamental growth, check out my latest enterprise report on @MessariCrypto :

Analyzing Solana's Growth: Airdrop Impact and User Engagement | Messari

Analyzing Solana's Growth: Airdrop Impact and User Engagement

messari.io

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

6 months

For a more in depth look at probable sybil account activity on L2s, check out my latest report on @MessariCrypto :

Sybil Account Detection in L2 Ecosystems | Messari

L2 sybils

messari.io

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

5 months

8/ DEXs are the backbone of any Defi ecosystem They derive their strength from the diversity and robustness of surrounding apps/tokens

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

6 months

Most of Base's early traction came from microcap trading, later enriched by @friendtech . Currently, over 80% of friendtech's weekly users are sybil accounts, yet Base's revenue hasn't increased since the microcap days.

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

4 months

However, WIF initially grew steadily, fueled by small-scale traders, avoiding the volatility often seen with larger investments. As WIF approached its peak, whales began to play a more significant role in fueling its growth.

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

9 months

10/ @link3to is CyberConect's debut app, and currently is the most used application within the ecosystem, accumulating 70% of the collect-based engagements Next runners up are @cybertune and @atticc_xyz with about 12% each

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

6 months

We used a 3-tier method targeting interconnected, high-frequency addresses: + Sequential Cluster Screening for high-frequency linear transfers + Radial Cluster Screening to catch asset transfer hubs + Activity-Based Screening for 'middle man' wallets.

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

2 years

4/ New features such as NFT minting, fiat onboarding and improved throughput created an innovative ecosystem that has grabbed the attention for new partnerships like the upcoming GME NFT marketplace.

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

5 months

12/ Likewise, PFP trading volume has remained relatively flat since September, and isn't any where near peak levels.

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

5 months

16/ For the consumer sector as a whole, attracting developers to create new products is key. Combined with the influx of new users from the current DeFi airdrop season, this could spark sustained engagement and growth within this sector

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

5 months

13/ However, certain PFP projects have shown signs of a rally over the past week, namely @tensor_hq 's native project, Tensorians, and @MadLadsNFT

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

4 months

Continued Traction: + Consistent growth seen with ongoing increases in holder count and steady trading volumes + Passing 10k holders + Watch for gradual whale involvement and continued new trader growth

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

4 months

In contrast, ANALOS saw early whale activity, leading to rapid growth but also instability. MYRO, trading with minimal whale influence, illustrating how smaller accounts can lead to more stable growth.

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

2 months

It also helps in identifying what to avoid, namely tokens with unsustainable momentum GME on Solana peaked at about $100M but was largely driven by recurring bagholders and whales

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

5 months

10/ Beyond DeFi, Solana's adoption in other sectors is somewhat lagging...

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

6 months

My methodology for detecting airdrop sybil attacks uses directional network graphs to visualize transactional relationships between users. I used a combination of weighted and unweighted degrees to flag suspicious accounts.

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

6 months

Organic users have been key in popularizing native apps like GMX & Posttech. Post-ARB airdrop, they now contribute over 100 ETH/wk, doubling their financial impact. The data suggests that for long-term success, a focus on unique apps and organic address engagement is vital

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

10 months

21/ Though Optimism's incentive campaigns didn't yield immediate grand success, a mid-term view tells a different story. The user retention rates and uptick in recent activity highlight a growing, loyal user base – a critical element for sustained success on any platform

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

2 months

During the last memecoin craze on solana (and during @dogwifcoin 's) first major breakout, I put together a quantitative framework to help assess the momentum for some of these coins

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

8 months

2/ Farcaster is a DeSoc network that has a unique hybrid architecture consisting of + on-chain smart contracts for identity + off-chain P2P network of Hubs for executing & storing social actions

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

2 months

POPCAT on Solana has seen two notable surges The first to $50M mcap and recently to ~$250M In both instances, new buyers significantly outnumbered repeat ones and initially, whales were scarce, but in the second phase, they've started to buy in

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

2 years

2/ Loopring strives to provide a standalone financial system through a ZK-rollup, DEX and smart wallet that connects users in a fast, secure and cost-effective environment.

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

6 months

zkSync's L2 journey echoes Arbitrum's early days, especially with 50-65% of its addresses being Sybil accounts. Most of the Sybil activity is congested around trading stablecoins, while the organic activity is centered around @syncswap and @mute_io

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

4 months

Memes are shaped by their investor profiles, with both new and existing entrants driving price movements. Starting with low market caps, these coins are prone to manipulation and pump-and-dump schemes, deterring serious investment and distorting their true value.

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Ally Zach

@0xallyzach

10 months

7/ They assumed that users would want to collect and hold stake in platforms they use. Their downfall could be the absence of unique product offerings to lure users away from OpenSea.

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