Incentive dictates outcome. Talking head. I like to trade. Consensus is the least profitable opinion. Undefeated @ tic-tac-toe. Know less each day. Father 2x.
Some engineer’s dream:
No managers, no bureaucracy, no politics, all odds against, a blank white board, and Elon staring at you asking for your ideas to transform a household tech name.
Like it or not, if you’re reading this you’re betting on this group.
Some personal news:
I’ve decided to take some time off. The last 4+ years with Tasty has been an absolutely incredible journey. Few are granted the opportunity to learn from the best in their industry and I’m grateful to have been one of those few.
We put
@jam_croissant
in the hot seat on
@tastytrade
.
Asked for his short term directional opinion on everything: $SPY, $TNX , $VIX, $USD, $EWW, $EWZ, $INDA, $USO, $CCJ
CC:
@CVecchioFX
I don’t know the details of his politics but
@VivekGRamaswamy
seems to get it..
—
The Fed has been playing God with the fat finger for too long, says Vive...
Japan dumps treasuries to defend Yen and whisperer drops “pivot” article the same day. No one even thinks twice about the strange timing, they just buy stocks…
I believe free and fair markets should be just that. Free and fair. We facilitate access to markets. We do not dictate access. Risk is real. Trade smaller than small and don’t get caught in the hype. That said, it’s your money.
1. A boat was stuck. It’s not stuck anymore.
2. A guy couldn’t pay his margin call.
3. Tech stocks went down, then up, then down, and ended flat.
This has been your daily market update.
Couldn’t afford anything so I wrote down things I wanted and visited them at the store. Embarrassing to admit now.
When I could afford them, I found I didn’t want them anymore. Many of us are chasing the ability to choose, not the choice, and don’t understand the difference.
To young men growing up without a father, I know how this day feels to you. It’s a reminder of pain you’re trying to forget & far from a celebration.
One day, you will have a family and this day will be beautiful again.
Happy Father’s Day to all making this tweet irrelevant.
We put
@jam_croissant
in the hot seat on
@tastytrade
.
Asked for his short term directional opinion on everything: $SPY, $TNX , $VIX, $USD, $EWW, $EWZ, $INDA, $USO, $CCJ
CC:
@CVecchioFX
Junior got to meet three legends of the game today.
@GuyAdami
,
@RiskReversal
, and Tom Sosnoff.
We tried to talk about option mechanics, skew, and IVR but Tom kept going on and on about the macro environment, stock valuations, and the inverting yield curve. It was very strange.
Ready to go to war tomorrow.
Asked my wife for help applying war paint. Something was lost in translation. Currently sitting at my desk going over charts with blush and eyeliner on.
Still ready for war.
Tired of simple explanations like “profit-taking” or “a little ahead of itself” 😂
Listen to
@jam_croissant
, the Vanna-Charmer 🐍 himself, unpack the option market dynamics helping to drive recent relative underperformance of the tech stock winners.
Only on the
@tastyliveshow
.
It‘s finally time to say goodbye to
@TDAmeritrade
, a place I called home for 12 yrs, as I’ve decided to lead a joint-venture start up. (DM me if interested)
TDA took a 20 yr old kid from Omaha, NE across the country, around the world, and back again. I will be forever grateful.
I’m a lucky guy. Markets changed my life and took me to places I never would have imagined. I’m indebted to countless mentors.
Its about more than the pursuit of purchasing power. It’s about the endless pursuit of truth, competition, objectivity, risk, and freedom.
✌🏾L.A.
On
@tastytrade
today,
@CVecchioFX
asked
@jam_croissant
for his opinion on where yields may be headed. I wasn’t ready for the answer.
“What the Fed is doing is actually going to exacerbate structural inflation... it’s actually going to make it worse.”
The most pivotal idea that I learned from our conversation with
@jam_croissant
is that inflation may not be binary (ex. inflation, disinflation/deflation).
Instead, to imagine the possibility of cyclical disinflation / deflation w/i a longer term period of secular inflation.
What’s next? Well, I've just been told that a member of the Freedom Caucus has nominated me as Speaker of the House. I have 20 votes at the moment.
Just kidding. Time to read, get back in shape, and spend time with my family.
My
#KeepinItReal
rules for surviving a recession:
1. If you don’t need it, don’t buy it.
2. If you DO need it, buy half, put water in it, and shake it up.
3. If you’re under 35, max out your 401k contributions and consider more “aggressive” style allocations.
You’re welcome.
I’d like to thank those of you who found value in our show, Jones and Friends. We tried not to talk down to our audience. Instead, we acknowledged that the collective intelligence of the audience greatly exceeded our own.
I'm not a teacher; I'm a lifelong learner.
The market offers me, and every other participant, a financial incentive to obtain a greater understanding of the world.
I want to explore the greatest minds on everything from the history (and future) of money, price, and power. I'm
In this clip,
@dampedspring
offers his thoughts on Wednesday’s
#FOMC
announcement.
How might the Fed guide markets with their Summary of Economic Projections? Take a listen.
Option traders are painted as speculators. While that can be true, I trade options because I want to control my risk to a higher degree.
To me, the fully allocated equity portfolio with no risk control or basis reduction is the speculator.
Just listened to an hour long clubhouse conversation. Creatives, influencers, technologists, and finance all discussing wealth creation.
I was disappointed with many of the voices that were called upon to represent my industry today. I am inspired to offer a better alternative.
Done for the day.
Lessons reinforced this week:
1. Trade what the market gives you.
2. Stay small & deleveraged.
3. Pencil down when getting chopped.
4. Steady returns over big paydays.
5. Stories are all b.s., we are in a bear market.
Good week for the good guys.✌🏾
Today on
@tastytrade
:
@biancoresearch
reminds
@CVecchioFX
and myself of the question that should be in the back of everyone’s mind:
What is the Fed’s tolerance for a risk rally?
If you'll forgive my indulgence, here are a small handful of internal conversations. In my mind, they demonstrate why Tasty is special. Whether it's market related or not, Tasty has the courage to allow the expression of real opinions.
Peace, love, risk, and cherries.
We spend nearly two years going down, and vol goes down.
We spend months in the same place, and vol goes up.
Oh, the beauty in chaos.
Were you listening to the market, Mr. Powell? Do you recognize the rhythms? Ok, let me translate the random notes and melodies…
I know we
🚨 The Hot Seat 🚨
The Hot Seat returns to the
@tastyliveshow
.
I asked
@jam_croissant
for his short term directional opinion on stocks, volatility, rates, the dollar, gold, and bitcoin.
$SPY, $QQQ, $VIX, $TLT, $TBT, $DXY, $GLD,
#BTC
Our nation is $34 trillion dollars in debt and we’re adding $1 trillion dollars to that figure every 100 days. Does it matter?
@jam_croissant
’s answer in our one hour interview on
@tastyliveshow
will probably probably surprise you.
Do you agree?
Go with the firm that doesn’t have hundreds of lawyers crafting their message.
If
@elonmusk
can express his concerns to their CEO before loyal customers can get an email response... that’s a problem.
Time to switch. Time to
@tradewithdough
.
This market will not shake 25M new participants. They are staying and they are learning. Shout out to
@TevoShabazz
and
@firstgenwealth
who are on the front lines.
Drove by GameStop today. It was empty. Always is. Shelves full of physical games.
Then passed a dispensary. It was busy. Always is. Shelves full of a product that both is and isn’t legal.
Markets aren’t broken. Just distorted, still.
Then ran out of gas because of inflation.
As always, thanks to
@CNBCClosingBell
.
To be clear I was not speaking to those who understand the market dynamics at play in these stocks... I was speaking to those that do not.
“So you’re saying they’re capital efficient and I can have delta equivalent stock exposure but with a fraction of the downside risk and unlimited upside.”
Tom’s not on Twitter so he'll never see this. Not only did he give me a platform to explore ideas, he challenged me to have opinions, non-consensus ones at that. He taught me about risk, entrepreneurship, the (lack of) value in traditional marketing, and much more. He's a genius.
I am a reformed troublemaker;
an anti-establishment capitalist;
an anti-technocracy technologist;
an admirer of the revolutionary,
the countercultures, and
dissenting opinions.
I’m pro-humanity
and a skeptical optimist.
I believe asset prices in competitive, liquid, &
As much as you think you know, you know almost nothing for certain.
Risk in more than just price.
Stay small and risk defined.
Distribution is wider, adjust.
Be aware of your bias.
No fear, no greed.
No ego.
Go.
I’d guess in a short span of time, many in my generation will go from never trading a debt instrument to finally being able to articulate the difference between a bill, a note, and a bond.
I asked
@jam_croissant
how he thinks about the $VIX autocorrelation at lower levels vs. the abandonment of hedges creating left tail risk for markets.
“The best performance for long vol, ironically, is not when it’s cheap.”
Tom, Tony, Scott, etc. care about their customers in a way I’ve never seen before. That care manifests itself in the company cultures they build. I’m thankful to have seen it live and in person, twice. With JJ in leadership, I'm excited to watch them scale across the globe.
They tried to throw the kitchen sink at my son in the last few months. Covid, RSV, stomach flu, and now hand, foot, and mouth disease.
It’s been a rough few months but I’m proud of my son. He’s a tank!
It's an election year, and politics seem to be top of mind for many. But what about the Fed?
I asked
@jam_croissant
whether he thinks Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, is making political calculations.
His answer? Yes.
To whom it may concern,
When you have a minute, would you let me know how the world's 2nd largest economy performed for the quarter? Not a big deal, just curious. No hurry. Can definitely just use N/A in the time series for now.
Best,
Global Markets
The trick is to get to the bear early and make friends with it. Get used to the idea of it being around for longer than people expect.
The other trick is not to fall in love with the bear. The bear always leaves.
Ask the bear for peace, not riches.
Conservative, liberal, bull, bear, volatility, macro, fundamental, technical, etc. We pursued truth, in spite of bias, in order to find financial opportunities.
Midday Update:
Boring day so far. Stocks sold off 1% and everyone lost their shit.
Long end lift in bonds continued for the 2nd day. Now at support.
Fed continues ping-pong policy. Guiding forwards all over the place, meanwhile the actual FF rate hasn’t moved since July ‘23
We chose to explore and learn *alongside* you. We asked questions (hopefully good ones) to brilliant and experienced market minds in long form and nuanced discussions. We chose to respect and speak to two-sided market participation.
Congrats to all those released from the burden of debt.
I sincerely hope you’re able to accomplish amazing things for yourself, your families, and your communities.
Let me get this right…
He says Fed needs to move 50bps to gain credibility… then buys 3MM shares of $NFLX after crash in part due to market’s tightening fears and says…
“We are delighted that the market has presented us with this opportunity.”
That’s pretty gangster.
Unfortunately, I’m under the weather. The Jones and Friends daily podcast on Tasty will be replaced with pre-recorded content for the rest of the week.
Wishing you all the best this week.
Have market dynamics changed with the introduction of zero DTE (days to expiration) options?
@jam_croissant
says they have the potential to exacerbate short term tail risk.
Level 4 travel advisory.
5 hr flight.
2,135 miles.
4 hr layover.
17 hr flight.
8,442 miles.
4 masks.
1 border closed.
14 days in isolated quarantine.
25 deliveries.
104 GB of data.
It’s now time to see my wife and son. Overcome with sincere gratitude, appreciation, and emotion.
If you don’t know what FDIC insurance is or EXACTLY how it applies to you at your bank, take five minutes on Monday and call them.
Also, ask your brokerage(s) how SIPC insurance applies to your account.
Ask questions until you understand. Use this moment to learn.
The price you paid for many of the goods and services you consumed was artificially held below actual cost. This increased perceived value to you, the user.
You’re now going to have to the pay true cost plus inflationary tax. The value greatly diminishes, if not disappears.
If you followed a perma-bull and got burned, don’t make the same mistake in the other direction.
Size down, make your own trades, learn from your mistakes, and develop confidence in your own decisions.
Learning *how* others think is more helpful than *what* they think.
I want to see a RFK Jr. and Vivek discussion.
I do not want to see it on a “major” network where it lasts an hour or so, is interrupted by commercials, hosted in front a live audience, with no/limited time to articulate their positions/visions, and where the questions are
You went from FOMO’ing into pools of cash not even knowing what it would be invested in (SPACs) to wondering if your checking account was safe.
You are currently trying to decide whether to buy:
1) high beta or
2) a safe and a gun