1/ Thread: process vs outcome
In trading and in life, Iβve struggled to stay focused on process over outcome.
When you learn a new skill, you get excited and are open to anything and everything to help you improve, and youβre rarely worried about how you might be perceived.
Algostable $UST about -0.34% off peg with some rather large curve swaps starting to unbalance the pool. Be careful out there.
$UST forced itself into the majority of DeFi and crypto, so if it depegs >2% then the entire space is going to take a massive hit.
Having a hot streak lately so i'm updating my process post. This is a conglomeration of everything I look at for every trade. Thanks
@quantfiction
for the constant supply of actionable data. Considering a seperate order flow post but for now you'll have to reverse engineer those
1/ Shower thoughts on stop loss:
Always use a stop... is probably the most common piece of advice youβll hear. From your babypip beginnings to your favorite experienced mentor, this trading truism is rarely questioned. You just do it, or lose big.
1/ My strategy is mean reverting, so I need enough bullets to keep me in the game. When Iβve used too many too soon, itβs constrains my ability to follow the strategy effectively. This week has been that.
1/ Not all trades are on a chart. Tomorrow Iβll be leaving my 40/hr week job to make my most important investmentβ myself. As time has progressed Iβve grown increasingly frustrated in my progress, not as a trader, but in things that I want to be better at; data analysis, coding..
1/ the $cope
@unlimitedcope
project from
@cyrii_MM
is fascinating on so many levels and iβm surprised to see it derogatorily referred to as a memecoin in some circles. the community backing from crypto-twitter far surpasses dogecoin, and this is just the beginning.
Stuffy finance: βthis is why Iβll never touch Bitcoinβ
Crypto chads: βthis is why my life savings are in Bitcoinβ
Traders: βwhy is Bitcoin not doing anything?β
Officially put up an OP proposal for
@pylon_protocol
and
@OlympusDAO
here:
The goal is to get liquidity into the hands of Pylon for the benefit of the community.
Lunatics + Ohmies both please comment and vote.
$mine $ohm
1/ Iβm seeing the debate resurface over whether or not orderflow and heatmaps adds or detracts from a traderβs arsenal. Thereβs the camp that argues that all resting orders are false or fake, and Iβll just come out and say thatβs flat out wrong, no argument.
1/ After paperhanding my
@DeGodsNFT
between 30-50 SOL after holding them through the 6 SOL days, Iβm finally back in with a
@MickeyDegods
! Iβm building something super cool for Degods+y00ts, so if you can, take a look at my thread. my team is looking for folklore and stories β>
I'm proud to publish my research report on
@terra_money
. I learned a lot and frankly, it was quite fun. The flywheel mechanisms baked in at every turn are incredible to uncover. I hope y'all enjoy it!
The Terra ecosystem
@terra_money
is growing fast. Their native stablecoin $UST is in the top five of stablecoins and is the only algorithmic stablecoin in the top 9. Meanwhile, the Luna governance and staking token continues toπ
How did Terra come so far so fast?
π§΅πππ
20/ A winner can still be a poor trade and a loser can still be a wonderful trade, the result is not what makes you a trader. The process does. Donβt wait for certainty, just take a guess and say fuck it. Hereβs an example.
I mostly post about orderflow like an βautist in heat jizzing on momentumβ (
@CryptoGainz1
), but in honour of the
@redxbt
#ff
I wanted to share my favorite PA setups that I watch for as a range develops.
Itβs not all about OI, CVD, deltas and volume profile!
1/Attention
@DeGodsNFT
and
@y00tsNFT
and
@dust_labs
and of course my
@snounsdao
community!!!
I need your help!
Iβm looking for stories that YOU think were the most important and relevant in Dust Labs history. Memes (33.3%) stories, turning points, anything!
Plz RT + Share!
I'm always wary of "bullish" closes outside a contested range, especially when they don't follow up quickly and exceed expectation.
My general road-map for would be a run of the highs and then another extremely volatile period sending us crashing through multiple prior ranges.
18/ if you made it this far, congrats. The whole point is Iβve started to template my probabilities (until such time Iβve acquired a data set) to re-introduce the chaos of the market into my decision making. Hereβs one.
1/ i haven't posted in a long time. last month my brother shot and killed himself.
i'm not sure what to say because there's nothing adequate to say.
i couldn't make art + music, or do anything really for a while now, but i wanted to honour him somehow.
longs building since session open
shorts touch and go, they don't have the confidence to hit the market yet, possibly distributing
poor highs over the last few days, could spike highs then dump
spot markets + futures overhanging supply
short, think 6800-6900 a matter of time
My gfβs mom died today, the day after my birthday. Iβve changed my mind on my earlier thoughts. Being there for someone in the days leading up to their death is a lot easier than not.
A lot of it comes from the classic fear of the unknown.
Very solid reaction off the $5850 comp range VAL. As I mentioned vol junkies don't get their breakdown out of the range immediately. Anywhere between 6350-6580 should be a good short and then play the range between there and the $5850 lows until proven trending.
1/ Crypto Edition
For the trader onto his first shitcoin (as a millionaire):
In crypto if you wanted to play with the big dogs, you had to go on twitter. Everyday, you clicked on that familiar blue bird. Tweet. Hereβs what a typical day looks like when youβre built different:
@IamNomad
borrowed UST (getting paid 40% apy to do so) by turning Luna into bLuna, sold it for usdt to buy AVAX, which iβve sent to a bunch of auto-compounding farms on various pools with aprs ranging between 200%-3000% APY. so iβm getting paid to borrow money which i LP for more yield
When entering a new range, I get a baseline to fade the range extremes asap. # of trades, volume and where they happen are key. Readings are on 5m candles only. Notice the freq. of London times and D/W opens.
All you have to do is sit and wait.
Hi ya'll. Here's a video of me reviewing the market. I use market profile to create trading zones, establish probabilities and get my mindset right for the trading day. Let me know if you like it and I might make it a regular thing.
3/
1. You are better able to determine your areas of weakness and how to improve relative to those around you.
2. You become more self-conscious about your short-comings and seek to avoid failures and do anything to re-live the invigorating rush of the beginnerβs curve.
Notes for
@FlashTrade_
ama until they upload their own summary!
may contain some errors cause they talk fast and were answering some complex security and technical questions
the last couple weeks have felt like groundhog day in the worst kind of way. july is the anniversary of my mom's death from cancer. she died when i was still in college. I hadn't seen her in many years since she still lived overseas, and i couldn't make it back in time to see her
19/ Inspired by the wonderful
@AnnieDuke
and her book βThinking in Betsβ, Iβve devised a βpre/post-mortemβ template that frees up my mental capital to not worry about whether the trade works or not, because Iβm not concerned about grading my outcome, only grading my *decision*.
21/ By imagining and assigning probabilities to what scenarios may play out, I give up the power of the outcome to control my emotional triggers in the moment. I already have a plan for this. That doesnβt mean I eliminated emotion, I think emotion is useful, but I manage it.
2/ As you acquire more knowledge on and become more fluid in your subject, you become more aware of not only what your skill level is, but those of your peers.
This self awareness does two things.
Just turned my biggest weekly unrealized drawdown into my biggest weekly winner, while also booking the largest funding gains on a position while it was scuba diving.
And itβs only Wednesday. Looks like weβre closing this week green after all.
8/ ...motivation and time, Iβll be able to capitalize and make the best of it.
But at the end of it, itβs just another trade.
Hoping for the best, prepared for the worst, and unsurprised by anything in between.
Massive thanks to
@quantfiction
+
@MarketsScience
for hooking up account analysis for me.
Pictured here are 3 wks of pure bmex MM trading (1st wk was on FTX -- ~2.5% acct gain), ignore the big equity bumps in the first week (account transfers to get up to size)
The Fat Ta(i)le of Three Years: a study of returns after high standard deviation events
The characters.
2017: The Year of the Glutton.
2019: The Year of the Butcher.
2020: The Year of the Dip.
The plot. Measure >2 and <-2 st. dev readings and their 1/3/5 day returns.
1/6 Hey all, if something sounds too good to be true, it probably is. Iβll be honest here and say Iβve been down 10% this month and regained only 5% of it, no joke. A combo of mental issues and a new situation for me has made me ignore my edge at my own expense...
i have joined
@HotHeadsNFT
!!!
my coming out announcement is a bit late because i wanted to animate it and
@sikedelic
went too hard on the backgroundβ¦ it took me 23 frames to get the color to wheel around β οΈ
thanks for the warm welcome so far, letβs buidl HH together!
the book for
@MadLadsNFT
on
@tensor_hq
is unlike anything ive seen.
price is below my market-making order and i'm not getting filled because there are constantly bids above ask, like constantly. unprecedented action this on a collection
Iβm going to be posting more journal entries going forward. Earlier this week I had to make these charts up to detail my process from start to finish and figured this would be a good time to post them to make sense of the entries. This will evolve in time!
Had some fun scalps this morning with a 4.6% account gain. Here's a peek into my setup that I don't share often. It's a blend of directional market making and all-in/out trades based on PNF delta charts, book flow, tape reading and market profile (zone trading).
imo if you're not reacting purely to flow, dxy, spx, metals correlations you should stay out of it. this is a macro-ception game and btc will flop around until there's a decision (which could be simply nothing but chop). either way BTC looks ready to resume trend barring disaster
12/ In acting itβs hard. In trading itβs harder. Youβre constantly reminded of your pnl every time you open your account, every trade you put on threatens your certainty, and social media bombards you with winners everywhere. Richer. Smarter. Better than you. 100%.
6/ As a kid and into my teens Iβve always been good at things and very experiential. Some people detest learning, but I absorb any new skill like a sponge and excessively and obsessively research to maximize my learning curve. I love doing it and I love seeing quick progress.
looks like a failed day 2 trend
i expect a drop to the weekly O and range VAL, and prices in the short zone are a blessing to add until proven bullish.
another drop to ~5800 and we'll likely range and reset, i don't think volatility junkies will continue to be rewarded
1. get fxs now
2. lock in cvx when itβs available (they lock it for 4 years)
3. get FPI airdrop with max boost, which is
@samkazemian
βs new baby that tracks the CPI and also yields
4. you still have cvxFXS which is yielding and is also liquid if you need it for something else
5/ All of a sudden, it doesnβt feel quite so great to try out a bunch of things to see if they work, or even to keep doing the same thing you learned early on that works 70% of the time, and the quest to find something thatβll work *every* time begins in earnest.
there is so much fear yet so much value-creation left to go by up-and-coming protocols that I have a hard time being bearish at all.
still balls deep in luna, avax and solana eco-systems
9/ Psychogically I knew to focus on process. I read the right memoirs, listened to the right interviews, looked up to the right role models. I thought I was *doing* the process. But really I was hooked on the damn outcome because everything I did turned out great! βdopamine highβ
Youβre either a barber or a stoner if you can fade +71mil net longs since yesterdayβs open. Iβm staying out of shorts for a while now. This is largest increase in a short amount of time Iβve seen. Those 33k by July calls might actually pay off
@PelionCap
4/ As the failures stack up (and they must as you transition from beginner to middling, not quite expert), scenario two can become oppressive and drown out any feelings on success you may have had when you first stumbled upon your new hobby.
14/ So whatβs the point of this musing? Well, if getting more skilled at something -insert trading here- means you start desiring more certainty, at a certain point you have to re-introduce *uncertainty*.
7/ However, while I grew confident in my ability to learn and quickly get up to speed, I quickly transitioned to the middling phase of learning where all the things I tried early on no longer felt good enough, and I tried many more things that ended in failure.
/1 Imo one of the keys to a successful trading strategy is having one or more triggers to identify when a market environment goes from ranging to trending or consolidation to expansion.
Some tools to do so are market profile (what I do), market structure, htf levels, etc...
15/ We know that trading is inherently uncertain, but everytime we put on another trade, weβre pretty sure itβs gonna go our way, otherwise why even put it on? But do we truly quantify it?
10/ So how do you go back to the process? The wide-eyed wonder of trying with no expectation of return, a pleasant surprise at the result? Really and truly being in the moment?
8/ And while being an exceptional beginner means you beat out good and bad beginners, you donβt jump straight to expert. You are then competing against others that are also at your level, however long it took them to get there. Things donβt work β I needed to find perfection.
11/ As an actor, I was trained to listen to my partner and react, not with the intention of forcing the audience to feel a certain way but to connect and create that random spark of emotion. Iβm not supposed to know how my scene turns out, even if Iβve performed it 20 times.
17/ My problem is then Ill never take the trade, because I donβt have quantifiable evidence of this setups success, and I wonβt put myself through the mental trial of figuring it out. So we have to *guess*.
i find it interesting that people think cleaning out leverage is bullish because who do you think is creating the froth to move large amounts of money around? you clean them out and the reflexivity is gone and no one wants to borrow. temporary flushes are fine, but this? crazy
16/ Do we know the % chance that this particular setup will work in this trading environment? Well Iβm not a quant, Iβm not even smart, so how can I even guess what my trade is going to do without βcertaintyβ in my data set? I must know how the setup has performed historically!
It pains me to see people slinging shit at UB for his bot having a bad first month. I trade with him every day and heβs one of the hardest working, respectful and diligent traders I know.
1. Control your size on automated strategies
2. See above
@AutomateUB
Replying with this account so I don't ruin the thread on the other account.
Here are my thoughts and overall opinions about last month. Extremely disappointing.
what happens when a top grossing Solana artist
@adam_ape_
launches an elite animated 4k collection on Eth two days after
@DeGodsNFT
bridges, supported by the most influential communities in the space across two ecosystems; RCC/BAYC/Punks/Boogles/Hotheads/Claynos/Degods... ?
7/ tldr: if you donβt think $cope is going to be the poster-boy of Solana with the combined community hype of $doge and ecosystem-anchoring effect of a coin like $BNB, youβreβ¦ π
7/ At worst, this ends (my stop loss) with me heading back to the grind to make ends meet after I burn through savings, but having made satisfying progress towards my mental goals. At best (my reward), an opportunity presents itself, and due to having the mental space,
11/ The potential for immense profits in understanding the game theory of spoofing and large orders cannot be overstated, but unless you have the incredible talent of synthesizing raw data at real-time speed, discretionarily deciding on multiple layers of orderflow is
here are my general zones of bias through the lens of the last two composite ranges
while i intentionally try not to hold any steadfast bias, the market is at a pivot. i want to be ready for the next impulse, even as i continue to fade intraday
I'm super happy to finally be an owner of a piece from
@yatreda
's collection and support the cultural preservation of hair and all it represents; diversity, expression, identity, and more.
Thank you!
This is what Iβm talking about when I say the narrative drive is shifting. When the market no longer responds to bullish news and everyone is still buying the dip, whatβs the next logical step?
13/ Itβs as if after every scene I was forced to watch a video of how the audience looked and reacted to my performance. And itβs how a lot of actors feel performing live when they start to anticipate when audiences will laugh/cry at particular moments. It constipates your flow.
#Binance
Futures Leaderboard
Name:
@cubantobacco
$USDT Margined Futures:
π Rank 99. Monthly ROI 1,353.7236%
ποΈ Rank 100+. Monthly PNL $ 75,960.76
Follow Cuban on the
#BinanceFutures
Leaderboard to stay up to date on his trading performance.
8/
@Glimmerycoin
has amassed such a fortune that he no longer trades. Heβs using his capital to create fully 3D rendered images into the order-book itself, taunting market makers and amateur heatmap traders with hauntingly realistic images of Edvard Munchβs The Scream.
As a pro trader the psychological alpha is actually in being able to trade like an absolute merkin when the market is trending
On that note, Iβm paying 1 btc for a noob who can teach me to learn what I call βriskyβ management.
DM my accountant
@SM17trades
to see if you qualify