PhD in political science from RUDN Moscow. Former assistant professor at RUDN Moscow. Political analyst. Columnist at Bloomberg Adria & Euronews. Views my own.
The main takeaway from last night's incident in Poland is that "the Western leaders who are pushing for WWIII" are actually very restrained and cool-headed, they made no rushed statements, while Russian propaganda made several contradictory assertions, all aimed against the West.
President of South Africa to Putin: "In particular, you spoke about grain. We proposed to implement the Black Sea Grain Initiative, we said that we would like the Black Sea to be open to world markets. And we did not come here to ask for some "gifts" for the African continent."
Some things to understand with the Prigozhin situation:
1. He does not own Wagner, it's Putin's state corporation. There are no major private enterprises in Russia of any kind, they all form a state cartel with Putin as the arbiter. Prigozhin can't move Wagner anywhere.
Seems retweeting (yes, it's still Twitter, I can hardly explain to my parents that I'm on x) this post is a free speech flashmob now, I'll gladly join in. For those unfamiliar with the situation, it seems that likes and retweets of this post have been disappearing over time.
In today's
#vatniksoup
, I'll introduce a South African-American(!) businessman and social media figure, Elon Musk (
@elonmusk
). He's best-known for being the wealthiest man in the world, running Tesla Inc., SpaceX & Twitter, and for parroting Kremlin's propaganda narratives.
1/24
It appears that Ukraine's Western allies are preparing the legal framework for long-term military assistance to Ukraine. This should be viewed as a clear signal to Putin that he can't just outsit the West on this.
This war is also a little foretaste of the "multipolar world", that Beijing and Moscow promise. It's actually a Hobbesian world in a perpetual state of "war of all against all". Autocracies do not bring peace, they bring war - internal and external.
Kremlin's biggest propaganda victory, in my mind, is convincing many people around the globe that all Russian language speakers in post-Soviet republics are automatically pro-Russian, that is to say that they support Kremlin's policies. That is, of course, not the case. A 🧵
On September 27th, Russian authorities claimed that 497k citizens of the Kherson region voted to join Russia. It's November 11th and Russians have left Kherson city. This is Kherson today, joyous to be free.
Many people are wondering why the Russian MoD announced the retreat from Kherson on TV. It was done to show that it isn't a retreat, but a controlled withdrawal process. It was also done by the MoD, so Shoygu and Surovikin take all the blame and Putin bears no responsibility.
Someone wrongly stitched Putin's head to his body in his fake meeting with fake mothers of soldiers. See what happens when all the good IT guys and graphic designers leave the country? That's digital sovereignty for you.
Fact of the day: Ukraine's desire to enter NATO couldn't have been an existential threat to Russia, unless Russia planned to invade Ukraine, because NATO is a defensive alliance. NATO was already on the Russian border for years and there was no existential threat.
Russian segment of the internet is once again sharing pictures that should prove Putin's ill health. I've watched through the actual video of his Valdai speech and made these screenshots myself. Make of it what you will, however, I want to point out something more important ⤵️
4. Finally Kadyrov. He does actually have a personal army loyal only to him, for the moment. He will never ever put his army in the meat-grinder and no one can force him to. When the central authority in Russia weakens, he will fight a civil war in Chechnya to keep power.
He can't be assassinated since that would throw Chechnya into chaos while the invasion of Ukraine is ongoing and he can't be replaced. That's why he can freely slap around the army and Prigozhin, claiming that he's loyal only to Putin without really contributing anything.
I've been closely following the renewed debate about peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, brought on by the piece in Time magazine and Zaluzhny's essay in the Economist, and I'm baffled by the fact that most approach the situation from the wrong side. A 🧵
3. Prigozhin is trying to save himself because the Ukrainian offensive is about to begin and then the possibility of heads beginning to roll among Russian officials rises significantly. Remember, it's easier to eliminate Prigozhin than Shoygu or Gerasimov.
Therefore, you can observe his warped hands and make all sorts of uneducated guesses or you can take a more rational, deeper look into the structure of his system and feel assured that he's already a forgotten page of history, even if he himself isn't aware of this fact just yet.
When you're the prime-minister of Armenia and don't want to appear to be standing too close to Putin, because he's useless as a guarantor of peace in the South Caucasus and you have to seek aid from the EU.
The first photo is of a Ukrainian boy from Kherson after the Russian occupation, taken by a Hungarian photographer András Hajdú.
The second photo is from a Soviet film "Come and See", directed by Elem Klimov, and it's about the horrors of German occupation of Belarus in WWII.
He has no ideology (doing everything opposite of the West is not an ideology, it's a broken mirror), he has no institutions (it's all a balance of power between various parts of the elite). Putin's Russia dies with Putin, Putin's Russia also falls when he falls.
Putin remaining in the war is what's keeping him in power and giving his rule meaning. Russia under sanctions, with a light totalitarian political system, without an external threat, is unsustainable. The eternal war has become a necessity for Putin.
Belgrade is full of Russian middle class emigres (17k with a non-permanent resident status). Most of them are IT specialists and their families, but from time to time I see Russians from the social sciences (гуманитарий). I happen to hear parts of their conversations sometimes.
Judging from my communication with the young Russian liberals on Twitter, it's easier for them to put a rainbow flag on their profile than to stop trying to teach Ukraine, the Baltic and Central Asian states how they should live and if they're gonna use Russian language or not.
2. The events we are witnessing are about passing the blame for the failed spring-winter offensive, which both the army and Wagner take the blame for. Both failed, but Prigozhin's position is more precarious. This map from DeepState shows the unfulfilled aims of the offensive.
In March, Hamas leadership visited Moscow and stated "its patience with Israel is running out". Half a year later, Hamas started a war. Meeting with Kremlin officials and starting a war afterwards is becoming a pattern.
Putin's Russia has no future whatsoever. Whether the world is hurtling towards a new Cold war (between the US and China) or some sort of globality will be achieved, Putin's kleptocratic, revanchist and anachronistic version of Russia won't be there to witness it.
Let me tell you in plain words what Putin just declared:
1. He introduced an official occupational regime in four of Ukraine's provinces
2. He declared martial law in said provinces so he could send in the conscripts
3. He promised pay to the conscripts so they wouldn't rebel
This war has outed many Kremlin agents in Europe, even those who ranked high in national European political systems. But why is the former foreign minister of Austria going out of her way to demonstrate her loyalty to Putin is an open question.
I have to say that Twitter tankies calling people fascists, just for remembering the brave Czechs and Slovaks who on this day 55 years ago rose up in support of a non-totalitarian version of socialism, is truly a sight to behold. For them, anything besides Stalinism is fascism.
It is of no importance if Putin is in perfect health or suffering from some debilitating condition. He is an old, mortal man, he cannot outlive democratic political structures, which are based on the principals of rationality and mutual benefit.
When Czechoslovakia was invaded by Soviet troops in August 1968, eight dissidents came out to protest in Moscow's Red Square. They unfurled a banner which said "For your freedom and ours". All of them were arrested by the KGB in five minutes time.
Ironically, the only sure way of breaking Putin is increasing aid to Ukraine, not keeping it constrained. Since Biden's administration has chosen a different path, the war will go on indefinitely and Putin is completely fine with it. He has plans to die in power.
The prime-minister of Poland issued a statement in support of the independence of Chechnya (Ichkeria), Kadyrov answered him in a very peculiar, one might even say suspicious, manner ⤵️
To put it simply - if NATO had disbanded along with the Warsaw Pact, Russia would be the dominant actor in Europe today. Russia would be ruling Europe through a combination of force and coercion. We have no reason to believe that this Russia would be a liberal democracy.
Remember the Russian propagandist, Anton Krasovsky, "fired from RT", because he talked about drowning Ukrainian children in a river and burning them alive in huts? Well he's back on RT, all is forgiven, the universe is again in balance.
I've listened to the entire take, nothing is taken out of context as it is long enough. Indeed, TV Rain, the opposition media which fled Russia and is airing its program from the EU is engaged in helping Russian conscripts get the equipment they need to fight in the war.
The anchor of Russian opposition tv-channel
@tvrain
said on-air: “we hope that we were able to help many soldiers with equipment and basic amenities at the front”, meaning Russian army committing genocide in Ukraine.
This “opposition” media received much support from the West.
Georgian demonstrators stopped the wedding of close relatives of the Russian foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, which was supposed to take place today in a luxury Georgian hotel. It was the wedding of Lavrov's sibling's-in-law, which his daughter was also to attend.
Examples of the democratic Russia of the 1990s direct military involvement outside of its borders and against armies of sovereign neighboring countries:
The Pope (basically): Russian colonial troops are the real evil here.
This is the worst statement by the Pope so far, in my mind. It's far worse than engaging in whataboutism and not making a clear distinction between which side is evil and which good in this war.
🧵 on reading 🇷🇺 media
Russian independent media sources write about a mass exodus of highly skilled specialists who were employed in the administration of Moscow city because of the fear of being conscripted. Previously, an employ of said administration was KIA on the front.
According to a worldwide poll by Gallup, for the first time most of the world's population disapproves of Russian leadership - 57%. The majority of the population shares negative views of the Kremlin in 87 out of the 137 countries included in the poll.
Bird's eye view of Soledar. This is how Russian liberation, "russkiy mir" and brotherhood between the Russian and Ukrainian nations looks like from the Kremlin's perspective. Remember, this is the Donbas, a region that Russia claims wants to join "the motherland".
By blaming Poland for the start of WWII, Putin is not only signaling to the German far right that he will support this narrative in the future, but he also demonstrates that he doesn't really care about the most important idol of the Russo-Soviet pantheon - WWII heritage.
Using pure Nazi vocabulary is even below Medvedev's standards, this is really disturbing. It's not new in essence, but the terms used are unheard-of outside of eugenics from the pre-WWII era. I don't want to write them, not even as examples.
The sole fact that there's so many people obsessing over Putin's health shows that it's a widely known piece of information that the whole political and economic system of Russia revolves around Putin personally.
So you're saying that the Russian naval blockade went away the moment Ukraine showed it could also hurt Russia in the Black Sea? Amazing, maybe what's needed to go forward is less off-ramping and more teeth-showing? I expect 🇷🇺 to come back to some version of the Grain Deal soon.
1st ship through the Ukrainian safe transit corridor in the Black Sea.This is a real progress, although I’m sure that Capt. had white knuckles the whole way. Good job to the Ukrainians responding to Russian piracy in this important international waterway.
What do Maxim Gorky and Tucker Carlson have in common?
The famous Soviet writer and propagandist, Maxim Gorky, visited the Solovki gulag in 1929. His task was a mundane one - to demonstrate that Stalinist concentration camps constituted a pleasant living and working environment.
It's important to see that Russia actually fears NATO response. It's also important to notice that the propaganda sector in Russia is pretty chaotic (lots of contradictory statements), this testifies to political chaos in the country (multiple centers of power being created).
What's been completely missing from this West-centric debate (either if it's the resilient attitude or the "I can't manage several crises" attitude) is Russia. Western observers seem to assume that Putin will welcome an end to war he's stuck in and they're wrong.
Dostoyevsky without atonement, a Russian reality: Radio Svoboda reports about a state funeral for a young Russian soldier, previously convicted by a jury of his peers for the murder of an old women whom he owed money and couldn't pay it back. He was drafted by Wagner and killed.
Now imagine that this kind of personalist dictatorship is aspiring to outlive (literally outlive, not outlast) Western depersonalized political institutions that were carefully constructed, maintained and updated through the many decades, centuries even.
I wanted to write about being a victim of political repression and what it means to Russians and what it means to those nations who suffered under Russian imperialism. A 🧵
An "art object", as it's called in mainstream Russian media, commemorating the "twinning of Mariupol and St. Petersburg" was unveiled in the center of SPB just a week ago. Yesterday it was defaced with the words: "Murderers, you bombed it to the ground, Judases!"
Now, the thing that bothers me is that they never think about what they can do, it's always an atmosphere of waiting for some critical moment to appear out of nowhere and Putin dissappears. It always seems that nothing is happening in Russian society until that spark appears.
Debates about peace in Ukraine are natural. Every decent human being desires peace, not war, but they miss a crucial reason why Putin's Russia went to war with Ukraine (from 2014) and why it doesn't desire peace with a version of Ukraine that's not the Kremlin's puppet state ⤵️
It's easy to overlook the consequences of the transition of Russia's economy towards a war mode, coupled with a controlled deprivatization trend, on the long-term structure of Russia's elites and its political system. This is a strategic shift, which exceeds the scope of the war.
I couldn't agree more with Zygar on this. Putin has been considerably weakened by his failed adventure in Ukraine, but his weakness was only exposed for everyone to see only yesterday, when he was forced to negotiate with a mobster mutineer of his own making.
I can't tell you anything about the military aspect of this morning's UAV attack on the 🇷🇺 navy in Sevastopol. What I can tell you is that the 🇷🇺 MoD is already putting the blame on the British secret service and claiming that the ships attacked were essential for the grain deal.
This is not a caricature of Zelensky, it's a caricatural racist portrayal of a Jew. Well done Russian institutions, you have stooped to a level so low you would have trouble burrowing any deeper. The saddest thing is that I have no doubt they you'll try to do worse in the future.
The only thing is that Putin isn't ready to oblige the West and take a piece of Ukraine. He'll rather take a low-intensity war without any agreements. Thus, Putin will be the one to break this little dream of the West and not "that stubborn, corrupt mule" Zelensky.
Fact of the day: The "dirty bomb" narrative completely disappeared after 🇷🇺 retreat from Kherson, so did Shoygu's alarmist calls to various ministers of defense claiming that a Ukrainian "dirty bomb" was already made and ready for use.
The birth rate in Russia has decreased by 6.5% this year in comparison to the previous Covid year (which saw birth-rates plummet as in the 90s). This was announced by the Deputy Chairman of the Duma, Anna Kuznetsova. She added that there are now 7 divorces for every 10 marriages.
General Zaluzhny (who has the luxury to be a general of a democratic country, where officials do not accidentally fall out of windows) basically came to the same conclusion on the Ukrainian side. I assure you, Russian generals share his opinion, they just can't say it out loud.
Obviously, it also bothers me that I never hear anything about Ukrainians dying and feeling sorry for them, not only for their own fate, whit which I also sympathize with as a person in a similar situation with them (but a light version of the same fate).
NYT jumping the gun a bit by putting the theoretical possibility of evacuation of Kyiv in the headline, but what's bothering me is that we keep discussing red lines for nuclear weapons when Putin is already creating a humanitarian catastrophe in Ukraine.
It's amazing how these people turn every Russian defeat into a new dread, as if Russia isn't getting weaker by every losing battle but it's gaining more and more strength. How they can still have any credibility is beyond me, but at least you'll be able to spot them clearly today
In his new article,
@peterpomeranzev
poses an important question - why hasn't the West reacted more decisively in sight of Russia breaching the Kakhovka dam. He also puts this question into the philosophical perspective of the Russian/Soviet "death cult".
Openly executing Ukrainian prisoners of war with sledgehammers, killing Navalny before the elections to then watch Putin eerily grinning about it in his victory speech, torturing terror suspects publicly - these are elements of the systematic barbarizing of the Russian society.
Announcing the retreat on TV put those 🇷🇺 soldiers still left on the west bank of the Dnieper in more danger, but their lives don't matter to 🇷🇺 command anyway (no lives matter to them, 🇷🇺 or not). Image is more important than soldiers (conscripts are there to be sacrificed).
@anders_aslund
@WilliamMeservy
Why is Musk conferring with Russian officials instead of consulting with the State Department and the Pentagon? Is he a Russian oligarch by any chance?
I whish that people from the West who constantly rant about their lack of freedom would experience living in Russia or China first hand and try to publicly voice opinions critical of the government there. You are detained if you show up with a piece of paper in any 🇷🇺 square.
What worries me is not that has-been Carlson has outed himself as Putin's court propagandist, it's that a portion of the American public identifies with a leader of their own homeland's adversary, because they perceive that he represents the same brand of fascism they profess.
If I had to give an opinion on the Prigozhin situation, I would say that he was about to be eliminated or indicted and he was informed of this. Afterwards, he decided to threaten his rivals with an attack (not Putin). He's backed into a corner and trying to negotiate his way out.
Putin, or at least his generals (who aren't allowed to write stalemate essays in the press like Zaluzhny), are fully aware that Russia has mustered enough resources to protect its presence in Ukraine, but that that's not enough for a large breakthrough.
When speaking about Russia's destabilizing influence in the Balkans, the Caucasus or the Middle East, keep in mind one crucial thing - Russia facilitates, encourages conflict and war, but it is NOT capable of controlling the actors involved or containing the fallout which ensues.
Zelensky specifically is being set up to appear unreasonable and corrupt. It's no accident that the corruption narrative has been in the center of discussions recently. The corruption narrative is the easiest way to push blame on Zelensky and pressure him to negotiate.
I certainly hope not. For one, the Chechen people deserve to be free of his heavy-handed rule and because he is responsible for war crimes. Also, note that the official Kremlin narrative always was that the West sponsored the Chechen rebellion, Kadyrov claims the opposite.
Kadyrov clearly cannot explain to his people why independence would be wrong or undesirable, so he blames the West for not supporting the independence of Chechnya enough? Well, he might just get his wish as things are headed. Will he also try to switch sides and will he succeed?
Putin is constantly drawing his red lines in the sand not to stop the war and Western aid, but to control its size so he can manage his eternal war of lowered intensity.
This is what real war looks like. We must remember that Ukraine is not just part of everyday news, it is the epicenter of human suffering in contemporary Europe. Simply for the reason that its people do not whish to become a part of Putin's empire, but determine their own fate.
In summary, Putin can't mobilize Russia into a total war. He's just delegating responsibility to regional governors, just like he did with the army conscription process. Putin's total war is one giant Potemkin village aimed at scaring the West to agree to negotiations.
Speaking a language does not determine one's political views, belonging to an ethnicity doesn't either, by the way. Many people in Ukraine speak Russian because it was the main language in the Soviet Union. It was the language of the urban and educated population.
1. How Russia will take vengeance on Ukraine soon (Russia strong)
2. How the surrender of Kherson was known to everyone in advance (Kherson not important)
3. How Putin will continue the war forever (He'll never surrender so you have to)
Norwegian seismologists from NORSAR report that an explosion was recorded on the Kakhovka dam on Tuesday 6 June at 2:54 local time. The very night and time when it started to collapse. The data was collected from a regional seismic station in Romania.
The West has already poured resources into Ukraine, but, more importantly, it has staked its reputation on Ukraine not being defeated (not to be confused with Ukraine winning, which is a different scenario). Putin knows that the West cannot abandon Ukraine.
Russia isn't the only country to torture terror suspects (Guantanamo is not a holiday resort), Russia is, however, one of the few countries in the world to publicly torture its prisoners and intentionally release the footage to its public in order to normalize political violence.