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Pablo E Guidotti Profile
Pablo E Guidotti

@peguidotti

6,056
Followers
792
Following
57
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Joined October 2011
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
3 months
M Lousteau volvió a ser un senador K, alineado igual que cuando fue ministro de CFK. No la vio con la 125 no la ve ahora. Igual lo importante es la macro y definir cuanto antes el régimen monetario con apoyo de un programa ampliado con el FMI,
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
3 months
Daría la impresión que a raíz de la posición tomada por I Torres y apoyada por muchos gobernadores habría que prohibir que las provincias tomen deuda nueva garantizada por coparticipación….
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
4 years
Argentine economy minister openly líes to Congress stating it has issued USD debt at a rate of 7% when it issued debt at a yearly rate of 17%. If authorities lie this way, how credibility will ever be restored?
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
7 months
El abandono del cargo por parte de Alberto Fernández da para una denuncia penal? Creo que único en la historia que el presidente de la Nación sea un ñoqui,
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
1 month
Argentina is taking huge steps forward. Overall budget surplus has been achieved in Q1, money printing has stopped and inflation is falling fast. It’s now time for the IMF to step up and provide fresh financing under a new EFF to end capital controls and restore growth.
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
4 months
What Argentina needs is sound fiscal and monetary policy. Structural changes debated in Congress are very important but macro stability, zero fiscal deficit and a clear monetary policy framework is the first priority. I expect the negotiation in Congress will still go forward.
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
4 years
Argentina announces it will issue short-term USD debt to pay holders of maturing peso debt (mainly in the hands of Pimco). Hence, it offers to pay USD to holders of Peso debt while it is defaulting on holders of USD debt. Argentine economy ministry is totally disoriented.
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
4 years
Ecuador teaches Argentina a lesson in debt restructuring. Without default, without playing legal (re-designation) games with CACs, in just 3 months Ecuador reaches with a similar set of creditors a slightly better deal in NPV than Argentina’s latest offer. Good faith pays.
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
4 years
Aquí está el Plan: patear, patear, patear.... el Plan Patear
@LANACION
LA NACION
4 years
Martín Guzmán: "No queremos enfrentar pagos al FMI hasta 2024 "
Tweet media one
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
5 years
A tomársela con calma. Argentina está aislada del mercado de capitales gracias al FMI. La suba del riesgo país muestra que hay muchos inversores dispuestos a perder plata sin mucho conocimiento. La baja de los títulos generará ganancias futuras que los que venden hoy lamentarán.
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
4 years
Con una participación del 40% en el PBI nacional, el ratio de deuda a PBI de la provincia de Bs As es del 7.5% aprox y el vencimiento de Enero representa el 0.15% del PBI provincial. Si hay default es solo por motivos ideológicos. Qué implicaría para la deuda de la Nación?
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
4 years
Argentina’s new law restricting home-office is a rare example of gov measures that increase the negative impact of the Covid crisis .It goes against new labor relations, important to the young and to the innovative sectors that will be the most dynamic in the recovery.
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
3 years
Totally misguided, Argentine president argues he will control food inflation by raising export taxes and imposing export quotas instead of recognizing that rising inflation is caused by the central bank’s monetary financing of the budget deficit.
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
2 years
Argentine inflation running at 65/70% fueled by massive money creation to finance the deficit and the Dec 2021 election campaign. Pathetically, the government’s response is to increase export taxes, impose price controls and threat food producers. Is this supported by the IMF? 😱
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
4 years
We have just discovered how “influential” are the opinions of Piketty, Sachs and Stiglitz in a debt restructuring negotiation.....
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
3 years
Un revolucionario se transforma rápidamente en dictador, y viceversa. Es de animal planet. El que gana es el dictador, el que pierde revolucionario, hasta que gane. Lo único que quiebra esta lógica atávica es la educación, la democracia, el equilibrio de poderes, y la convivencia
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
3 years
Argentine President Fernández initiates his European Begging Tour....instead of adopting reforms urgently needed to restore sustainability and growth.
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
11 months
Argentina is increasingly using a non-transparent swap line with China. Since this short-term loan is likely collateralized, the only collateral available is the USD backing USD deposits, which increases the risk of a banking crisis. This should be looked at carefully by @IMFNews
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
2 years
Argentina: A totally incompetent economy minister sends a bogus Budget Law to Congress and fails at attempting to pass it without discussion in the Budget Commission. The Budget Law was repealed today in Congress. He blames the opposition. So childish….
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
3 years
Argentine President (?) states he doesn’t know what is happening in Cuba. Apparently, he doesn’t know what is also happening in Venezuela and Nicaragua. Many believe he doesn‘t know what is happening in Argentina…,😱😱😱
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
2 years
Argentina’s Guzmán states domestic debt should never be defaulted, even if its dynamics is unsustainable. Hence, he implies hyperinflation is preferred to debt restructuring, as domestic debt can always be serviced with money creation. This led Arg into its 1989 hyperinflation.
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
4 years
Argentina doesn’t have a large (net) debt problem, it has a huge credibility problem and serially defaulting simply confirms the worst investors’ fears. Default is the wrong remedy for an otherwise manageable situation.
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
3 years
From a financial and asset prices point of view Argentina looks as a dead country, and the government doesn’t appear to care.
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
4 years
Argentina is restructuring USD 68 billion, I.e., 17% of GDP. The discussion with creditors is whether debt reduction will be 60% or 35% in NPV. Namely, the discussion is about 4.25% of GDP. How such a small number determines whether debt is sustainable or not?
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
3 years
Argentines ashamed today by the stupidity and arrogance of their president, making racist remarks that offend Mexicans and Brazilians.
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
6 months
Aparentemente el mega ñoqui se irá a vivir a España, se dará de baja de la AFIP para blanquear su patrimonio. Claramente está bien asesorado. Fácil estando de vacaciones.
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
24 days
Comparto mi entrevista hoy en Clarín
Tweet media one
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
4 years
Argentina: economic team shows no understanding of financial markets. Announces it will issue USD bonds at 16% YTM when, just weeks ago, argued that 7% was a “usury rate”. Supposed aim: reducing gap between official and financial FX rate. As expected, market reaction is negative.
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
3 years
After losing the mid-term elections, Argentine President pledges not to reduce government spending (at 45% of GDP) and reduce the fiscal deficit only through economic growth. Good night and good luck. 😱
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
4 years
Si lo único que PBA busca es postergar el pago de USD 250 millones de principal al 1 de Mayo, mucho más simple es pedir un préstamo con garantía de coparticipación por ese plazo que seguro PBA obtendría del Tesoro Nacional o de la banca privada o de ambos. Mucho menos costoso.
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
6 years
Lo de Bienes Personales es un caso de inconsistencia temporal de libro de texto. Además. Con la tasa delUST de 10 años en el 3%, la tasa del 0.75% es confiscatoria sobre un rendimiento libre de riesgo.
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
3 years
No tiene sentido que haya 2 meses entre las PASO y las elecciones de medio término. Con 2 semanas alcanza y sobra.
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
2 years
A healthy advice to Argentine economy minister: an Excel spreadsheet at most is a wish, not reality nor an economic plan. Without substance it convinces nobody. Get to work. IMF staff is much more solid and trained than you and your team.
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
8 months
La ley penal cambiaría debe ser derogada. No sirve para ningún fin positivo para la economía, es anacrónica, discriminatoria, y producto de mentes represoras.
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
4 years
El BCRA limita derechos de los empleados por una decisión tomada por el empleador.
@Santiagobulat
Santiago Bulat
4 years
Los trabajadores en relación de dependencia cuyas empresas fueron beneficiadas por el Programa de Asistencia de Emergencia al Trabajo y la Producción (ATP) no podrán comprar dólar ahorro.
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
4 years
Argentine gov announced the expropriation of Vicentín, a private company in the agricultural sector. The decision is illegal and unconstitutional. The explanation provided (that the gov is preventing it to fall in foreign hands) is silly and shows a totally confused president.
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
6 years
En mi opinión, la final Boca-River debiera ser declarada desierta por incapacidad de la sociedad argentina,
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
11 months
Argentina has entered into arrears with @IMFNews . The objective is to threaten @IMFNews into agreeing to continue supporting the existing awful program. However, with elections approaching @IMFNews may decide to wait and negotiate with the next administration.
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
2 years
El “dólar soja” puede ser conveniente para unos pocos pero no resuelve el problema de fondo, genera más emisión y pérdidas cuasi fiscales (el BCRA compra a 200 y vende a 130). Lo peor es que genera en el gobierno la falsa sensación de tranquilidad de que alargaron la mecha.
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
4 years
No se entiende porque el BCRA no adopta un régimen de tipo de cambio dual formal en vez de seguir avanzando en una acumulación troglodita de restricciones cambiarias.
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
3 years
Argentina’s health minister flies to Cuba to buy COVID vaccines........wait, don’t laugh, it’s not a joke, it’s for real.😱
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
9 months
Argentina is disintegrating while @IMFNews continues to support disastrous policies. Looting has started in a number of provinces while President Fernandez and his Vice Kirchner are missing in action (MIA). Minister and candidate Massa is missing in Washington(MIW).
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
3 years
This is the time of the year when the Argentine government, running a 9% of GDP deficit, spends taxpayers’ money on propaganda spreading outrageous lies on the state of the economy and its incompetent health policy response to the Covid-19 pandemic.
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
2 years
After the announcement of an EFF agreement between Argentina and the IMF, country risk didn’t budge and remains at 1850 bp. It is a clear indication of how weak the agreement is, not beneficial for Argentina and damaging for IMF’s credibility.
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
3 years
Back to the 70s: Argentina resorts to price controls on over 1200 products as yet another futile effort to contain inflation fueled by the monetary financing of the fiscal deficit.
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
3 years
Argentina playing games with Paris Club, misses a payment that represents 6% of its reported international reserves. Wait....,,,may be reserves are wildly overstated?
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
3 years
La Argentina inaugura una figura inédita, la de “presidente ñoqui”.
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
4 years
Once again, Argentina chooses an unnecessary, ideologically-motivated, and ultimately very costly default.
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
3 years
In yet another measure that shows no understanding of basic economics, Argentine gov prohibits temporarily corn exports. Apparently, gov thinks this is the way to fight rising inflation fueled by money creation to finance a 9% of GPB budget deficit.
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
3 years
Using a law of past military dictatorships, Argentine Gov threatens to fine food companies not producing at full capacity as a means to fight shortages produced by price controls in the midst of rising inflation. How can the IMF possibly agree on a program based on such policies?
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
6 years
Al final, Messi jugó de falso 2, Meecado de falso 9, y Sampaoli de falso DT.
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
2 years
Apparently, Argentine economy minister’s negotiating strategy is to threaten @IMFNews with default. It sounds like a death-row inmate threatening suicide…. His strategy of obtaining long-term refinancing with no conditionality and no plan is bad for Argentina and for the IMF.
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
3 years
In yet another contradiction, Argentine government forces YPF to restructure its external debt even if it doesn’t need it. Once upon a time, in the 1990s, YPF had a better credit rating (S&P) than the sovereign. Now. It’s all downhill....
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
3 years
Most holders of Argentine bonds and equity are not invested in them, they are just stuck with them.
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
3 years
Argentina: new FX controls on imports of a list of goods will likely induce: 1) more corruption as each import will require central bank approval; 2) higher inflation as more goods will be priced at the parallel FX rate; & 3) less ec activity due to higher regulatory uncertainty.
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
4 years
El Plan Patear...
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
2 years
La inflación no es un maleficio, es el producto de la incompetencia en materia económica.
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
4 years
After several months, Argentina has failed so far at resolving the easiest of its challenges: the debt restructuring. Who is going to be in charge of the much more difficult task of restoring economic activity and investment?
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
3 years
It is now clear that Argentina will not reach an agreement with the IMF this year and chances are a default is in the works. Guzmán has been lying all along to the IMF, the US Treasury and the G7. The word “constructive“ should be eliminated from the Fund’s diplomatic jargon.
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
6 months
Great news for Argentina. A disastrous and corrupt government ends. @JMilei will need the support of @IMFNews and the international community to overcome a very heavy economic inheritance.
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
4 years
Bueno, si tratás de impedir que 4 millones de personas compren USD 200 por mes inhabilitando de a 5.000 personas por mes tardás 67 años. 😁
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
3 years
As inflation increases, Argentine government prohibits meat exports for 30 days to n an attempt to contain inflation. As in other cases, where the gov simply postpones obligations into the future, the export restriction will lead to lower meat supply in the future.
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
3 years
After a primary election debacle, Argentine President calls “speculators” those who buy bonds, a typical political cliche. At the same time, with an over 6% of GDP budget deficit, his Economy Minister is desperately issuing bonds and hoping to be able to roll over amortizing debt
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
2 years
Agerntina has a totally irresponsible fiscal and monetary policy, apparently with the support of @IMFNews . The failure of the current EFF program should leave one important lesson: the IMF needs to be seriously reformed.
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
1 year
La teoría económica indica que, cuando el BCRA se quede sin reservas, se producirá una unificación cambiaria vía un salto en el TC oficial. Con una brecha de 100%,estaríamos frente a una inflación “reprimida” ADICIONAL de 100% si la devaluación se trasladara plenamente a precios
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
3 years
Miguel Kiguel: “Hoy estamos casi sin reservas en el Banco Central, casi todos son artilugios contables”
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
2 years
La diferencia entre equilibrio parcial y equilibrio general es si la inflación está causada por el aumento en el precio del tomatito redondo o por la emisión monetaria.
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
4 years
Argentina’s Congress passes a crony-unionized law that makes it very costly for firms to allow home-office, hurting employment & innovation
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
1 year
Finally, Argentina and Brazil confirmed that the planned monetary union announced by the FT is bullshit. The two countries just want to study a mechanism for using domestic currency for bilateral trade, displacing the USD. Nothing new or innovative.
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
20 days
Today Argentine union crony oligarchs called for a general strike. As happened January’s general strike, today’s strike was unsuccessful and people chose to go to work. Public opinion is tired of the corrupt and enriched union (decades old) dynasty.
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
4 months
Estoy de acuerdo con la decisión del gobierno de enviar la ley ómnibus de nuevo a comisión. La ley estaba por ingresar al “tren fantasma” en Diputados y el gobierno se dio cuenta a tiempo.
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
2 years
This unsubstantial, biased, propaganda article does not help Argentina, as only induces more procrastination on the part of the authorities. Argentina's COVID Miracle by Joseph E. Stiglitz @ProSyn
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
3 months
Argentina: La Rioja, a chronically mismanaged small province, announces it will restructure its foreign debt in a move to destabilize @JMilei ‘s government. Rogue debtors with no rule of law should not be allowed to issue debt under foreign legislation (Guidotti-Hamilton, 2015).
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
4 years
After economic-activity data released today, Argentine GDP is poised to fall by 15% or more in 2020, compared to 2019.
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
4 years
Argentine grossly incompetent economic team makes the economy and asset values implode. Without major change it is very hard to predict what awaits Argentina at the end of the line.
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
2 years
Argentina further restricts foreign travel through increased taxes. Government stupidity is endless. Bond prices below 20 cents on the USD. What is truly unfortunate is the pathetic role @IMFNews is playing in Argentina. An IMF program is no longer good news, look at Pakistan
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
4 years
Argentina’s and Province-of-Buenos-Aires debt restructuring strategies are misguided as they reflect ideological unwillingness to pay rather than financial needs considerations.
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
3 years
As the Argentine central bank continues to print money to finance a swelling budget deficit, the government resorts to price controls and export restrictions as its main tools to fight rising inflation. 😱
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
5 years
Creo que el cepo de Sandleris no es light, es muy parecido al de CFK. Genera una nueva máquina de corrupción que la Argentina ha vivido por muchas décadas. Quo vadis Macri? Creo que validar este tipo de medidas es un retroceso cultural que los Argentinos sufrirán por años.
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
4 years
Cómo es la dinámica del CCL/Blue y el oficial en una BoP crisis? Si el BCRA se queda sin reservas para fijar el oficial, la teoría indica que la brecha se cierra con un salto del oficial hacia el CCL. No hay motivo para que el CCL baje en la crisis. Ahí saltan precios y salarios
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
3 years
If the Argentine government continues with current policies (or a lack of them), it opens the way for having, for the first time, a non-Peronist government in 2023 with majority in Congress. Still very challenging, but a very different scenario than that of 2016.
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
3 years
Mercosur, a prehistoric trade agreement, crumbles after Argentina tries to block a reduction of external tariffs. Uruguay, and my take is that soon Brazil, announces it will seek to sign trade agreements outside Mercosur.
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
3 years
Argentina. Contradictions on the rise in economy policy. On the one hand, money printing increases sharply to finance populist spending three weeks ahead of mid-term elections. On the other hand, gov imposes a price freeze on 2000 products claiming it will reduce inflation. 😱
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
4 years
In my view, these generic expressions of public support only increase the likelihood of a default, which is not good for Argentina. —————- Restructuring Argentina’s Private Debt is Essential by Joseph E. Stiglitz, et al @ProSyn
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
3 years
Argentina: after its debt restructuring failure, country risk exceeds 16%. Despite unsubstantiated claims by the government, inflation continues on the rise. No IMF program in sight. #ArgentinaOnTheBrinkAgain
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
4 years
From Tequila to Fernet: With no reserves and significant pressure on the FX market, Argentina issues USD-linked short-term bonds remindful of Mexican Tesobonos. It aims at satisfying the increasing USD demand fueled by excessive money creation to finance budget deficit.
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
1 year
Argentine inflation continued to accelerate in April at 8.4% monthly increasing the likelihood of hyperinflation. All of this under the auspices of @IMFNews …..
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
4 years
Para entender la diferencia entre los efectos de los ajustes neopopulistas basados en impuestazos y los ajustes neoliberales basados en reducciones de gasto recomiendo leer “Austerity: When it works and when it doesn’t” de A. Alesina, C. Favero y F. Giavazzi (2019).
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
2 years
Argentine zombie President Fernández openly violates the constitutional principle of separation of powers by accusing the judicial system after a federal prosecutor calls for a 12-year jail conviction for Vice President Cristina Kirchner on corruption charges.
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
4 years
Without a clear economic plan to eliminate the fiscal deficit, Argentina’s exchange offer implies “I”ll start paying you in a few years, in the meantime I plan to issue new debt and when payments are due I’ll restructure again”.
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
4 years
After announcing a take-it-or-leave-it unilateral exchange offer, the tandem Fernandez/Guzmán initiates a 30-days chicken game that will most likely throw Argentina into full-fledged default once again.
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@peguidotti
Pablo E Guidotti
5 years
Miguel A Pichetto has been a great choice for vice presidential candidate by President Macri.
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