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Gene Munster

@munster_gene

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Managing Partner @deepwatermgmt . Investing in tech-driven growth. All views/opinions are not investment advice.

Minneapolis, MN
Joined July 2019
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
3 months
I still believe $TSLA is on the right track and this storm will pass. EV’s are a better way to move a car and autonomy is a better way to get around. Tesla is investing in that future while other car makers are slowing their investment.
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
2 years
$META down almost 15% on results. Initially shares were up 8%, then tanked with Zuckerberg commentary that they are increasing investments in the metaverse. Bottom line is Zuckerberg is saying to investors get onboard with the metaverse or go away. Jumping on the call now.
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
4 months
It’s getting more clear. @elonmusk is 80% genius, 20% master of good luck. In a decade, his purchase of Twitter will power #XAI to rival $TSLA and #SpaceX as his greatest source of wealth creation. The reason is Twitter’s data is powerful (best source of real time intention),…
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
30 days
I've been thinking more about the $TSLA's campaign video released yesterday, and what sticks out is the concept "a deal is a deal." Recall Elon purchased Twitter even though he wanted out because a deal is a deal. 1) The video showcases both Elon's Tesla accomplishments over the…
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
2 years
Despite $TSLA stock being down, the long term investment thesis is on track.
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
4 years
Tesla is crushing the auto industry.
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
2 months
I was blown away today at the number of ways high school students are using AI. Cheating has always been around, but the efficiency of cheating is exponentially increasing with generative AI. While my insights came from a sample of one, they were so convincing that I believe the…
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
3 years
Tesla FSD Beta 10 took measurable step forward based on seeing Rob Maurer's ( @TeslaPodcast ) test drive. My take; while it's far from perfect its more clear Tesla full autonomy is on the horizon. I had been thinking 2025, and now believe that estimate is conservative.
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
11 months
Three takeaways from the $TSLA quarter: 1. They’re investing more than any other car maker and eventually that’s good for margins. 2. Over the next five years two new models will drive growth. 3. Traditional auto will become more dependent on Tesla.
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
1 year
$TSLA price cut bottom line is near term pain for the companies long term gain.
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
7 months
Lost in the Cybertruck “price is too high” conversation is the reality that $TSLA continues to pull ahead of the competition.
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
2 months
$TSLA up 13% in pre-market based on news that FSD took one step closer to approval in China. All signs point to FSD will eventually be available in China, the largest EV market in the world. Timing is unknown. I was shocked to hear the news given the progress that $BIDU's…
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
28 days
$TSLA's Robotaxi unveiling on August 8th is going to be one of the top 5 biggest tech stories this summer. I believe they'll make good on that expectation and announce 3 new vehicles.
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
3 years
Tesla more than delivered on the most important metric. Automotive gross margin ex-credits of 28.8%. Street was expecting 25.1%. Thats also better than June at 25.8%.
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
23 days
Thrilled to report that Deepwater is an investor in xAI's recent round. Despite the lofty $24B valuation for what is effectively a startup, we are confident in the investment for four reasons: 1) We believe there will be about four primary proprietary foundation models that will…
@xai
xAI
24 days
xAI is pleased to announce..
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
4 years
Bad news for the auto industry. Musk says operating margin goal is to be slightly profitable and maximize market share.
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
3 years
$TSLA delivery numbers are further evidence the company's entering the growth segment of its S-Curve.
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
3 years
Three broad strokes to take away from #Tesla AI day: 1. Tesla is the leader in autonomy… and it’s not close. 2. Tesla is more than just a car company. Storage, solar, insurance, HVAC, and bots.
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
3 months
I have a different explanation than $TSLA about why March deliveries were ugly. Big picture; I believe this will pass because Tesla is making the right decisions for the long-run.
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
2 years
Tesla just gave the auto industry a clinic on how to power through supply chain headwinds. Dec delivery numbers up 71% vs consensus of up 48% says it all.
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
2 years
* $TSLA AI Day starts at 8p ET tonight. No other company holds an analyst event on a Friday night. I love it. Another example of Elon's first principles approach. I'll be watching.
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
2 months
$TSLA stock is up 7% because new vehicles (could be Model 2 or Robotaxi) will come sooner than investors were expecting. Likely starting production mid 2025, instead of second half of 2025. From the shareholder letter" We have updated our future vehicle line-up to accelerate…
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
9 months
As we approach the UAW strike deadline (midnight ET tonight), what's clear to me is $TSLA is the winner.
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
7 months
Elon is raising $1B for . A week ago he raised $135m from investors. Bottom line, he wants to compete with OpenAI and Anthropic.
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
4 years
Tesla S&P inclusion prep kit: internet access, $TSLA quotes, popcorn, and Tesla short shorts. Showtime starts around 3:30 PM ET.
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
11 months
Musk on the call says $TSLA is in discussion with a major OEM to license FSD. That's new and could be meaningful.
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
2 months
Elon's talked a lot about autonomy over the past 8 years. His comments yesterday that $TSLA is "going balls to the wall" to solve autonomy reminds me of a comment he made in 2022. At the time he said in an interview with @teslaownersSV "The overwhelming focus is solving…
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
1 year
It's going to be a tough reporting for $TSLA on January 25th. I'm bracing for an ugly earnings number due to the discounting. The company is down in the near term, but not out in the long term.
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
1 year
$TSLA is up because the outlook wasn't as bad as people were expecting. More importantly, they've got the right game plan to get through what will be a tough 2023 for the auto industry.
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
9 months
As the UAW strike wraps up its fourth day, it's more clear that $TSLA is the winner. I want to warn you there are a lot of numbers to follow:
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
6 months
Shares of $TSLA down almost 3% when the NASDAQ is flat. Reason is Tesla is issuing a software update for 2m vehicles to add more alerts and controls to Autopilot. While the software update is defined as a "recall" by NHTSA, in reality I see it as just a software update.
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
2 years
$LCID is making Tesla look good. Lucid just cut its full year production number to 6k from its original 20k estimate. Stock is down 12%. It doesn’t matter if they blame it on supply chain, or blame it on the rain — $TSLA is doing a better job of navigating this mess.
Tweet media one
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
2 years
$TSLA deliveries for September miss estimates by 4%. Company said more vehicles were in transit than normal at the end of the quarter and they’ll show up in December deliveries. Given they’re clear the missed deliveries will show up in the December quarter, I buy the explanation.
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
3 years
Tesla numbers are out. Gross margin excluding credits was a record at 25.8%, ahead of the Street at 22.5%. The average over the past year was 21.3%. Rising margins are important for investors to see Tesla as a tech company.
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
3 months
I believe “Model 2” is on hold and at this time $TSLA will only pursue the Robotaxi. @elonmusk said Reuters is lying but who knows what lie Elon is referring to. Bottom line: This is the right move for Tesla. Being the first to do full autonomy at scale is huge first mover…
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
3 months
Buckle up: @elonmusk says xAI will open source Grok this week. Many will see this as a swing at OpenAI. I see it as evidence that xAI is rapidly progressing and is the hottest private company. Musk reports that xAI has not and is not raising money, but I believe that will…
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
9 months
Elon says that Twitter now has about 550 million daily active users. That compares to about 325 million when he acquired the company in Oct of 2022.
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
2 years
2020 was the year of EV's led by $TSLA up ~ 800%. 2023 will be the year of the battery because the light will go on for long term investors.
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
2 years
Elon is in attack mode.
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
2 months
Elon talks for the first time about an AWS like opportunity. Elon says its car owners (with hardware 4) will be able to rent the cars compute power to an AWS like service that is used for AI inference.
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
5 months
I expect shares of $TSLA to drift lower tomorrow. That said, they are making the right decisions for the long term.
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
3 months
Walter Isaacson's book on Elon gives some helpful context on today's event: Two years ago Elon said why make a small $TSLA because if they solve Robotaxis it will be irrelevant. So he told his execs to only make a Robotaxi model from ground up without steering wheel, etc. The…
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
3 months
Shares of $TSLA are up 5% (vs. Nasdaq up 0.4%) on the news that all new Teslas come with 1-month of free FSD. Yet another datapoint that while traditional automotive is backing away from electrification and autonomy, Elon is doubling down. The news today is the latest evidence…
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
3 months
@elonmusk is going for it. Yet another reason why traditional auto is in trouble long-term.
@elonmusk
Elon Musk
3 months
Tesla Robotaxi unveil on 8/8
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
3 years
Demand for Tesla cars is rapidly accelerating. December quarter deliveries were 61% yy compared to 44% in September 2020, and 23% in December 2019. Other automakers will report deliveries in the coming days.
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
7 days
Happy Elon, happy investor. Shares of $TSLA are up 7%, which makes sense given it's highly likely Musk's revised pay package gets approved. While existing investors will be diluted by about 9% given the shares that will be issued to Elon, it’s the right thing to approve the pay…
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
3 years
1) $TSLA Great top line and free cash flow (FCF of $1.9B was double what the Street was looking for). While EPS looked bad, $0.80 vs. $1.01 expected, it was due to stock-based compensation which went from $400m to $633m quarter over quarter.
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
4 months
$ARM up 23% in the after-hours. Six months ago there was talk we were at the peak of an AI bubble. Since then: $MSFT up 27% $META up 50% $AMD up 55% $NVDA up 56% And now $ARM up 48% (after-hours) I still believe we're at the start of 3-5 year tech run that will end with an AI…
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
5 months
The biggest question re $TSLA is do you believe in EV’s and autonomy? If the answer is no, it will take 20 years to get to 35% market share, then the stock is going lower. If the answer is yes, we will have 65% plus market share in 20 years, then this dampened outlook for…
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
3 years
Chip shortage is top of mind for tech and non-tech companies alike. In three years, I expect those chip shortage headlines to be replaced with battery constraints. Advantage $TSLA given they're the only automotive company building this capacity in-house.
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
3 years
We've done a little more work on $TSLA's March deliveries. With 109% growth #Tesla appears to be hitting the vertical portion of its S-curve. Accelerating growth is the signature sign of a growth company.
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
1 year
$TSLA didn’t waste anytime taking advantage of the new higher tax credit price cap. Today they raised the price of the Model Y Long Range in the US by $1k, from $54k to $55k. I was expecting a $3.5k bump.
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
1 year
$TSLA's price cuts are working in a big way.
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
2 years
Is Elon spreading himself too thin? The simple answer is no.
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
3 months
The biggest factor in the timing of Robotaxi is out of $TSLA's hands, state approvals. Crazy to think the hardest part of autonomy is getting past lawmakers.
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
5 months
The critical metric, auto gross margins ex credits, came in at 17%, compared to the Street at 17.3%. I was expecting 16.7%. While this missed the Street, it marks the end of four consecutive quarters of margin decline, up from 16.3% in the Sep-23. Over this is a positive.
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
3 years
Now that Panasonic is no longer a Tesla shareholder after selling its $3.6B stake, it opens the door for Tesla to build more proprietary battery tech.
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
3 years
$TSLA September quarter delivery numbers keep getting better. It's 73% yy growth compares to an average of down 27% yy for GM, Ford, Honda and Toyota.
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
4 years
Another negative data point for traditional auto. Ford, GM, Fiat Chrysler September quarter deliveries down on average 7% compared to Tesla up 43%.
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
2 years
Tesla's key metric. Auto gross margin ex credit was 30%. There’s a debate where consensus was, I believe it was 27.6%. Some think it was 28.5%. Either way they beat it.
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
4 years
Tesla's in. It's addition to the S&P 500 is now official. Well earned recognition from the investing community that Tesla will be part of the foundation of the future.
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
28 days
The $NVDA party is turning into a rager. We're just getting started, and it will last longer than most think. This will be the underpinnings of a 3-5 year tech bull market that will end in a bubble burst.
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
2 months
I continue to brace for $TSLA's earnings tomorrow night. The latest price cuts over the past few days include a 33% reduction in the upfront FSD option for the US. Additionally, select models got 5% and less in price cuts in the US, China, and Europe. Bottom line: Street…
@munster_gene
Gene Munster
2 months
I’m bracing for shares of $TSLA to go lower after they report because consensus deliveries for 2024, 2025 and 2026 are likely too high. My long-term positive view is unchanged.
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
4 years
Tesla's latest 10-Q is further evidence traditional auto is in a tight spot. New today: between 2020 and 2022, the company plans to spend ~$15B in capex. This is more than double what they've spent over the previous 10 yrs.
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
22 days
My take is $AAPL outperforms $NVDA over the next year.
@LastCallCNBC
Last Call
22 days
“Investors are largely in denial about what Apple’s AI opportunity is going to be,” says @munster_gene on Apple's push into AI. $AAPL
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
4 years
Musk continues to reference importance of solar and batteries. Reiterates Tesla's mission, accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy. He's slowly shifting the investor focus away from cars to energy. Company will use battery day late in September to expand.
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
5 months
Elon is onto something with Optimus. When I think about how the world works, we move around in vehicle's to get to and do work. These will be the two best robot form factors. 1. A car to navigate roads and 2. A humanoid because all of our work is designed around humans. Elon…
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
2 years
The 343k deliveries were up 42% yy. I expect that growth will be 2x better than the rest of the industry. The Tesla growth story appears intact.
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
2 months
Some context on the $TSLA 10% layoffs. 1. The business has slowed, and it makes sense to adjust headcount for 2024. I expect deliveries will be down around 3% this year. I believe the Street is looking for about 5% growth in deliveries. 2. Elon loves efficiency and is likely…
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
4 months
I was wrong on the Apple Car, and even more wrong on the Apple Television (killed in 2017). Over the past three years, I'd put the odds at 50% that Apple Car would see the light of day. Most investors put the odds at 10%. Separately, before today's news, I had the odds at…
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
3 years
Tesla deliveries for March exceeded the Street in print estimate by 6%, and further exceeded whisper numbers that they would fall 7% below expectations. In total 13% upside compared to expectations.
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
28 days
$TSLA and get call outs on the $NVDA earnings call as big spenders. Sounds like Elon's a fan.
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
3 months
The AI bull market is just beginning. Most investors believe we're already in an AI bubble given $NVDA is up 103% over the last 3 months and 298% over the past year. By contrast, the NASDAQ is up 14% over the last 3 months and up 42% over the past year. Most of the 1-yr…
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
7 months
Reviews on the Cybertruck are starting to make their way out and have been universally positive from a tech, design, and engineering perspective. The only rub continues to be price, which will be too expensive for the mainstream.
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
1 year
1. Demand (production) was up 44% yy to 439.7k. Expectations were for up around 40%. Tesla produces when they get an order. I consider that a win for Tesla and will most likely outpace the auto industry by a factor of 3x.
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
3 years
Tesla is crushing deliveries despite supply chain headwinds.
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
2 years
$TSLA is going to be fine even if Musk buys $TWTR. His true passions will still be Tesla and SpaceX, as evidence by him trying to get out of the deal.
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
3 years
#Tesla 's gotten some heat lately for crashes potentially related to Autopilot. The facts should speak for themselves: Tesla reports 1 accident for every ~3.7m miles driven with Autopilot on, versus 1 accident per ~475k miles driven for all US vehicles.
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
2 months
After Biden signs TikTok forced sale into law, I put the over-under at 2 days before China retaliates. If they go after $AAPL and $TSLA, the Tech Cold War is officially on.
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
2 years
When you dig into the numbers, @Tesla 's growth and competitive lead appear to be increasing.
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
2 months
Elon gives more context on the ride hail service. The approach is two fold. Some number that they own and some that are owned by the end user or third party business. The individual user can add and subtract the car to a fleet like an Airbnb. Elon is saying there could be…
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
4 months
$AAPL is down 3% today because investors are voting they have limited confidence in their AI strategy. By now it's become clear that this June we will see their first foundation model, something that will compete with GPT, Gemini, xAI, Anthropic. The part that is not known is…
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
7 months
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO. I'm shocked. He just hosted a great DevDay, everybody loved it. More importantly he has led the company to faster success than any other tech company. It doesn't feel that this decision is based on performance. There must be more to the story.
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
3 years
I'm blown away by how big the global transportation market is. Simply taking three segments - new vehicle sales, trucking/logistics, and ride-hailing - yields an $8T plus market, compared to the smartphone market around $500B.
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
4 years
Many were expecting a profit. The real news is Tesla hit profitable and free cash flow with sustainable measures. The company did not pull a one time lever to get to profitability.
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
5 months
Musk says they are pursing $NVDA for autonomy chips and Dojo (Tesla's in-house chips in development) is more of a long shot. Looks like yet another upcoming win for Nvidia.
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
4 months
My biggest thing I was looking for going into the $NVDA call was commentary about long-term growth rates. Jensen gave context on the topic when he wrapped up the earrings call. After his standard comment that the world is moving to AI powered by GPU’s, every company will be an…
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
1 year
$AAPL has only missed 3 out of the almost 60 quarters I've followed the company. I'm happy to report, despite the shortfall, the core business is intact. The reason; Apple's customer base remains in love with and loyal to their products.
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
2 months
$TSLA moving higher in the aftermarket, now up 10%, after Elon's comment that next gen vehicle could be out late this year or early in 2025. That would be 6-12 months ahead of the their previously stated plan. While it does not matter if it's late 2024 or late 2025, investors…
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
3 years
Tesla continues to crush the auto industry in delivery growth. For Dec 20, the average automaker reported deliveries down 4.8% vs. Tesla up 61%. This gap is wider than Sep 20 when the average automaker was down 7% vs. Tesla up 43%.
Tweet media one
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
2 years
Elon’s headcount comments highlight the reality that a recession would have a small negative impact on Tesla.
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
2 months
Toni Sacconaghi asked for more context about new models. Elon’s response: “we have said all we want to say on that”.
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
1 month
$TSLA is the master at tweaking price to optimize demand (albeit demand has been soft over the last 5 months). The announcement this week that you can get 0.99% financing on a purchase of a Model Y in North America is the latest price adjustment. The cost savings of a 1%…
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
2 years
I had my first ride in a $RIVN over the weekend (Launch Edition R1S). Three takeaways: 1. Rivian is going to survive and thrive. 2. Compared to the Model Y it feels a lot bigger. 3. Traditional auto needs to reinvent like $TSLA & $RIVN, not swap a gas powertrain for electric.
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
4 months
$AAPL is killing Project Titian (reported by Bloomberg's Gurman) to focus on AI. I'm shocked. This ends almost a decade of investment into finding a way into a massive addressable market. While most investors were skeptical that Apple would actually coming out with a car, the…
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@munster_gene
Gene Munster
1 year
Ford provided details on their 2022 EV P&L. What jumped was $F lost $34k per EV delivery in 2022 and $TSLA made $10k per delivery.
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