Investor, consultant, editor, freelancer, interested in mega trends, energy, mining, tech - The more I learn, the more I realize how much I don‘t know. DYODD.
🧵 The price of gold has just hit a new all-time high. However, gold miners are trading well below their 2011 record high - see chart below.
What has caused this massive underperformance?
Let's look at some of the key reasons. ⚒️🪙
#gold
#mining
$GDX
In recent months we have seen numerous negative reports about the tight supply situation in the copper sector and for various important development projects. ⚒️
- First Quantum's Cobre mine in Panama is shut down, eliminating about 1.5% of the world's copper supply.
- Anglo
The Silver Institute has just released its major new macro report "World Silver Survey 2024". The timing is perfect as silver prices just broke above $30 an ounce and hit a new decade high.
Here is what you need to know.. 🧵
#silver
$SLV
#metals
Copper: The Most Important Metal
► Robert Friedland, Founder and Chairman of Ivanhoe Mines: “You're going to need a telescope to see copper prices.”
► Legendary investor Stanley Druckenmiller: "Copper is a pretty simple story, takes about 12 years, greenfield to produce
Cost inflation in the gold mining industry
Cost inflation is real and eating into margins. At the beginning of 2021, the all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of gold at Newmont $NEM, the world's largest gold producer, was less than $1,050 per troy ounce. Since then, costs have risen
Barrick Gold, the world's second largest gold miner, recently reported its first quarter results.
Let's take a look at some key numbers that show the gold giant is struggling despite record high gold prices. Gold mining remains a very tough and uncertain business. 🧵
$GOLD
#gold
🧵 Hungry for growth again.
There is a new trend among the major mining companies. For the first time since the end of the great bull market in commodities more than 12 years ago, the giants of the mining industry are focusing more on growth.
In recent years, BHP, Rio Tinto and
“Two years ago, no one wanted to be in
#lithium
, and the phone would not ring,” said Henderson, Chief Executive Officer of Pilbara Minerals. “Now, the phone won’t stop ringing..” “There’s certainly a level of desperation from some groups who are end-users of lithium."
@business
The Paradox of Junior Gold Stocks 🪙🥇
Despite record high gold prices, most junior gold mining stocks are far from all-time highs. Over the past decade we've seen tons of value destruction due to heavy dilution, cost inflation, weak sentiment, G&A escalation, etc. As a result,
#Copper
prices need to nearly double in order to prompt mining companies to build costly mines to meet the rising demand for critical materials, says billionaire Robert Friedland via
@markets
Gold and gold stocks
With gold prices soaring to new all-time highs in 2024, gold stocks must be on a tear. But they are not. Most gold stocks are far from their 52-week and all-time highs, as there has been a lot of value destruction over the past 15 years, including massive
Junior Miners Coming Back?
This is a real positive for the beleaguered junior mining sector, which investors have shunned for many years. The Canadian Venture Exchange (TSV-V) saw its highest volume in 2 years and closed at new YTD highs on Friday. Of course, the breakout in
Junior Miners Coming Back?
This is a real positive for the beleaguered junior mining sector, which investors have shunned for many years. The Canadian Venture Exchange (TSV-V) saw its highest volume in 2 years and closed at new YTD highs on Friday. Of course, the breakout in
The Million Dollar Question
Will the gold miners ultimately close their mega-gap to the gold price and start a record chase to catch up? And when will that happen? What do you think?
Exciting times ahead.
Thanks for reading. 🙏🧵
$GDX $GOLD
#mining
2024 is going to be exciting.
"..A forecast surplus of
#copper
going into 2024 has suddenly all but disappeared.."
“Disruptions have significantly increased, and a market deficit is now increasingly likely,” said Jefferies. “We could be at the foothills of the next copper cycle.”
In recent months we have seen numerous negative reports about the tight supply situation in the copper sector and for various important development projects. ⚒️
- First Quantum's Cobre mine in Panama is shut down, eliminating about 1.5% of the world's copper supply.
- Anglo
Copper market balance under pressure: We've seen more supply disappointments and disruptions in recent months.
- Production at Codelco, the world's top supplier of the red metal, fell 10.1% to 107,300 metric tons in March.
- There was another strike at MMG's large Las Bambas
Rio Tinto is actively looking for
#lithium
acquisitions, predicting prices for the key raw material in electric-vehicle batteries will stay high
#mining
#ev
$rio via
@markets
Worrying trend continues $GOLD
Barrick’s gold output hit its lowest level since 2000 last year following a series of setbacks across its operations. Maintenance and repair work at its Nevada mines, an expansion at Pueblo Viejo in the Dominican Republic and a prolonged shutdown
Declining Production And Gold Mining Grades
This is another major reason for the underperformance. Despite billion-dollar acquisitions and mega-investments in new mining projects, the production trend of the major gold producers has been declining for most of the past 15 years.
2024 gets off to a hot start in the
#mining
space
M&A alert: Barrick Gold's CEO has spoken with some of First Quantum Minerals’s major investors to gauge their support for a potential takeover $GOLD $FM.to
Copper market balance under pressure: We've seen more supply disappointments and disruptions in recent months.
- Production at Codelco, the world's top supplier of the red metal, fell 10.1% to 107,300 metric tons in March.
- There was another strike at MMG's large Las Bambas
Cost Inflation
We have seen a massive increase in the cost of mining over the last 15 years. Whether it is energy raw materials (e.g. diesel is important for open pit mines), lubricants, mining machinery, wages for miners and skilled workers, economic feasibility studies,
Hard to imagine 👀
S&P Global: "The record-high level of demand would be sustained and continue to grow to 53 million metric tons in 2050 - more than all the
#copper
consumed in the world between 1900 and 2022."
“This is a molecule crisis. We’re out of everything, I don’t care if it’s oil, gas, coal, copper, aluminum, you name it we’re out of it,” Jeff Currie, the head of
#commodities
research at Goldman Sachs, says via
@markets
#metals
#oott
Currie: Copper Is the New Oil
Jeff Currie, chief strategy officer at Carlyle Group, says
#copper
is the new oil. He's also bullish on oil and shares his thoughts on gold demand "Bloomberg Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg) May 14, 2024
Dilution
Dilution is the creeping death of many junior gold mining stocks. But we have also seen significant dilution among mid- and large-cap gold producers over the past 15 years as a result of acquisitions, mergers and capital raises.
For example, just look at the history
When will the leader wake up?
The shares of the world's largest gold producer, Newmont, are trading at the same level as in 2006. The average price of gold in 2006 was $603.77 per troy ounce (oz). Isn't this incredible?
$NEM
Shrinking Reserves
Commodity producers are constantly living off the land and must replace their depleted reserves or their business model will implode in the future. Over the past 15 years, the leading gold producers have seen their reserves dwindle significantly. It is
Got
#nickel
?
France admits it’s lost control of parts of New Caledonia, the world’s third-largest producer of critical EV metal nickel
$VALE $BHP $CNC.v $PNRL.v
Copper market balance under pressure: We've seen more supply disappointments and disruptions in recent months.
- Production at Codelco, the world's top supplier of the red metal, fell 10.1% to 107,300 metric tons in March.
- There was another strike at MMG's large Las Bambas
Declining Production And Gold Mining Grades
This is another major reason for the underperformance. Despite billion-dollar acquisitions and mega-investments in new mining projects, the production trend of the major gold producers has been declining for most of the past 15 years.
Shares of Freeport-McMoran, one of the world's largest
#copper
producers, climbed to new 5-year highs yesterday. The chart looks great. Freeport is one of the few commodity stocks in the S&P 500. $FCX
There is another major problem in the copper production pipeline. New significant
#copper
discoveries have become very rare in recent years, and have been in a structural downtrend for a long time. This is especially true for new 'Tier-1 discoveries', which are coveted by all
We are experiencing a historic moment in the commodities sector as copper prices climb to new all-time highs above $5.10 per pound. Short-term copper prices are very overbought, medium-term the breakout to $6+/lb is certainly in play. Super cycle ahead?
$COPX
#copper
Got
#nickel
?
France admits it’s lost control of parts of New Caledonia, the world’s third-largest producer of critical EV metal nickel
$VALE $BHP $CNC.v $PNRL.v
When will the leader wake up (2)?
Shares of Barrick Gold, the second largest gold producer, are even trading at 2004 levels. The average price of gold in 2004 was $409.17 per troy ounce (oz). Incredible, but unfortunately true.
$GOLD $GDX
Massive Underperformance, Explosive Upside Potential?!
The underperformance of junior gold miners is even more pronounced. The $GDXJ ETF, for example, is trading miles below its 2011 record high - notice the gap!
Bull run continues.
Cameco (NYSE:CCJ) +2.9% in Monday's trading to its highest in 16 years as RBC Capital reinstated the stock at Outperform with a C$70 price target, saying the company is "set to become a leading player in a nuclear industry experiencing a rebirth amid the
A major expansion of
#copper
smelting capacity in Indonesia is imminent, with billions of dollars in investment by Freeport $FCX and Mitsubishi.
Mitsubishi, Freeport completes copper smelter expansion in Indonesia - "..Combined with Freeport's upcoming $3-billion smelter in
🧵 Where does uranium come from?
The elementary fuel for the nuclear industry is mined in only a few places in the world. Let's take a look at the top 10 uranium mines, which account for most of the world's
#uranium
production. ⚒️
In a new interview with the Financial Post, Barrick Gold CEO Mark Bristow comments on the major challenges facing leading gold companies as reserves dwindle, prices fall and margins come under pressure.
..The gold mining industry hasn’t replaced the gold we have mined. We have
Shrinking Reserves
Commodity producers are constantly living off the land and must replace their depleted reserves or their business model will implode in the future. Over the past 15 years, the leading gold producers have seen their reserves dwindle significantly. It is
Very tight market 👀
China's new copper smelting projects to add pressure to tightening concentrate supply
- Two new projects in China seen coming on stream in H2 2024
-
#Copper
concentrate supply remains tight amid global mine disruptions
Costly And Unsuccessful Takeovers
Gold producers have burned through many billions of dollars in overpriced and ill-timed acquisitions. Especially in the last major bull cycle, there were some very costly acquisitions, the consequences of which we are still seeing today.
A few
Geopolitical Challenges, Resource Nationalism And Rising Sovereign Risks
We are seeing this serious negative trend in all commodity sectors and it is not stopping at the gold mining industry. Over the past 15+ years, many gold mining projects in some African countries, among
Local opposition, strikes and community issues
Over the past 15 years, local opposition to many gold mining projects has increased significantly. At the same time, the willingness to strike and the demands of miners, local communities and politicians have increased. All of this
There have been a lot of deals in the mining space lately. M&A activity is really heating up.
A brief overview of some of the latest deals:
- BHP goes after Anglo American (all about copper), Glencore also considers to bid
- Zijin Mining buys La Arena Gold mine from Pan American
China, the world's largest copper producing and processing country, is struggling on its own.
Beijing is discussing plans and seeking industry input to impose curbs on the world's largest processor of the metal to reduce overcapacity and carbon emissions, according to people
Too Much Fragmentation, G&A Escalation and Expensive (overpaid) Management Teams
Despite numerous takeovers and mergers over the past 15 years, the gold mining industry remains highly fragmented - and is one of the most fragmented commodity industries. For example, in many
Finally a deal. $TECK
Teck Announces Full Sale of Steelmaking
#Coal
Business
- Sale of majority stake to Glencore at implied enterprise value of US$9.0 billion on a 100% basis
Minority sale to Nippon Steel Corporation
- Proceeds will be used to strengthen Teck’s balance sheet,
Permitting Nightmares
It is becoming increasingly difficult and time-consuming to obtain new permits for mining projects. This is especially true for large mining projects (not only in the US), which often have a significant impact on the local ecosystem and require large
A major problem for the future supply of copper. It is becoming increasingly difficult, expensive and, above all, time-consuming to realize a copper mine. This is especially true for large
#copper
mine projects. It literally takes forever to get approved.
Mining majors have renewed interest in juniors. Is a new trend emerging?
It is positive to see how mining majors have increased their exposure to the junior mining sector in recent months. We need this commitment. The big players clearly see opportunities and are taking
Big investment from the Chinese mining giant and good news for the whole
#mining
sector in Ecuador. China remains hungry for large
#copper
assets.
Solaris Announces $130 Million Strategic Investment by Zijin Mining Group $SLS.to
@chigrl
@jfostertm
Fully agree - add to that the steep long-term downtrend in mining grades, the huge water scarcity in many places& big permitting challenges (e.g. social licenses) for new large base metal mines, getting tougher and tougher to find/develop/permit/finance/operate big new proj/mines
It's getting harder and harder to get a new
#copper
mine approved.
Indigenous group to take fight against Arizona copper mine to Supreme Court $RIO $BHP
Finally.. Gold miners hit fresh 52-week highs on Friday.
#Mining
stocks starting to catch up to record breaking precious metals rally
After "dramatically" underperforming the price of gold early this year, the YTD percentage gain of 14.3% in the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index has
Silver miners are catching up
It really took a while because sentiment was very skeptical at the beginning of the year. But now the
#silver
miners have really caught up in the last couple of weeks. And most importantly, volume is picking up a lot. The silver miners ETF 'SIL' also
Very good insights here into the current state of the
#lithium
market from Patriot's Chairman Ken Brinsden.
Mr. Brinsden is the former boss of Australian lithium producer Pilbara Minerals, in case you don't know.
World's no. 2 automaker
#VW
to get “actively involved in raw materials business” - .. new
#battery
manufacturing division and all but committed the company to investing in
#mining
..
The negative production trend at the world's largest copper producer from Chile speaks for itself. Codelco is struggling with declining mine grades, aging and depleted mines, cost inflation, water shortages and a lack of skilled labor.
Tough And Complicated Business
Many market participants forget that gold mining is an incredibly difficult and tough business. There are countless challenges, stumbling blocks and stress factors in day-to-day operations, despite the many technological advances.
Consider that
New
@IEA
report finds that on a 1.5C pathway, demand for critical minerals will quadruple by 2040. We're going to need a lot of new mines.
#mining
#metals
Beautiful chart: Shares of Southern Copper, one of the largest copper producers, climbed to new record highs yesterday. The stock is on an impressive bull run.
#copper
$SCCO
The next monster holes from Vicuna 👀 Every major wants to have projects like these.
NGEx Drills 429.4 Metres at 2.31% Copper Equivalent, Including 102.7 Metres at 4.26% Copper Equivalent and 13.2 Metres at 16.24% Copper Equivalent at Lunahuasi $NGEX.to
#copper
#gold
#silver
Copper price hits record above $11,000 on bets that shortage looms
Several developments in 2024 have emboldened
#copper
bulls and drawn in a rising tide of speculative money..
Copper: The Most Important Metal
► Robert Friedland, Founder and Chairman of Ivanhoe Mines: “You're going to need a telescope to see copper prices.”
► Legendary investor Stanley Druckenmiller: "Copper is a pretty simple story, takes about 12 years, greenfield to produce
Newmont plans to sell a lot of projects. M&A party in gold mining about to start? $NEM
Announced a Focused Tier 1 Portfolio*
- Intend to divest six non-core assets including Éléonore, Musselwhite, Porcupine, CC&V, Akyem and Telfer, as well as two non-core projects including
One of the main problems is and remains the structural downward trend in global copper mine grades that has been ongoing for many years with no end in sight. With few exceptions, the grades of the largest and most important development projects are well below the current global
Still incredible:
Gold prices are up more than 80% over the past decade. Shares of Barrick Gold, the world's second-largest
#gold
producer, are essentially flat over that period. Costs and free cash flow are the key.. $GOLD
Barrick Gold, the world's second largest gold miner, recently reported its first quarter results.
Let's take a look at some key numbers that show the gold giant is struggling despite record high gold prices. Gold mining remains a very tough and uncertain business. 🧵
$GOLD
#gold
Cost inflation is real.
Newmont reported the highest AISC ever in Q4 at just under USD 1,500 per ounce. The cost of mining gold has risen much faster than the gold price in recent years..
$NEM $GDX
Cost Inflation
We have seen a massive increase in the cost of mining over the last 15 years. Whether it is energy raw materials (e.g. diesel is important for open pit mines), lubricants, mining machinery, wages for miners and skilled workers, economic feasibility studies,